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If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 07:42:29


Post by: Kilkrazy


To be clear, I am not predicting that GW is going down. We have to see their half-year and full-year reports to find if the latest bad results were a blip or a sign of a serious problem.

For the sake of discussion though, let us assume that over the next three years GW's sales continue to drop, pushing them into major decline and downsizing.

It seems to me that GW have made four contributions to wargaming in general.

1. By their high street presence and appeal to youngsters they have made wargaming more popular and mainstream as a hobby thus increasing the size of the market overall.
2. Over the years, their design studio has developed a large amount of talent who have gone on to form their own companies, e.g. Studio McVey.
3. They have established an acceptance of high quality, high price rulebooks, increasing the professionalism of the presentation.
4. The popularity of 40K created an after-market for variant bitz and models.

In my view the most obvious sufferers of a GW collapse would be companies who depend on selling into the (mainly 40K) after market.

I wonder if the entire market would shrink in the longer run for the lack of a major recruiting point.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 07:49:05


Post by: filbert


I think the opposite; the demise of the so called elephant in the room would have a beneficial effect on the industry, I believe. I think, here in the UK anyway, GW stores disappearing from the high street might help more FLGS step up and fill the void where hitherto they have been squeezed out. Again, here in the UK, we really suffer from a lack of decent, independent retailers as GW have aggressively expanded and squeezed them out over the years. I would much prefer the UK gaming scene to be more like that in the US, where GW have a minor on street prescence and it is the FLGS that do the bulk of the heavy lifting. As to the other points, I can only think that GW shrinking or disappearing will only help more smaller companies step up to take a bite if the pie. Bear mind, the wargaming market in general is growing so a large player gowing under can only help smaller companies to fill the vacuum.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 08:17:42


Post by: Deadnight


I think it would have a negative impact on the hobby.

Im not naive enough to suggest that GW is the hobby - they're part[b] of the hobby, but they are a big chunk of it. thing is, we're the hardcore gamers that are "in the know" about whats out there. Warmachine/Hordes, Flames of War, Malifaux, Infinity etc. To the average Joe on the street in the UK, they'll vaguely know something about Warhammers, from GWs rather than any of the other games. GW has a historic presence, and as much as it can be said, is associated and synonymous with wargames (like kleenex and tissues, hoover and vacuum cleaners) to a greater extent than any other game. Especially in the UK, everyone has some old warhammers in the attic when they were a kid, or knew someone who did. Without that "brand recognition", and i use that term very loosely, you have an extremely niche hobby. Mention warhammer, and they know what you're talking about. Mention Warmachine and they think its to do with Iron Man.

the second issue is that due to its presence, GW games are often the entry point for folks. This was more the case historically where when you got into wargames, it was through 40k. its less and less true these days (quite a few folks are starting wargaming via WMH, FoW, X-Wing etc) but its still a relevant factor. How many of us 20-somethings and 30-somethings got into the hobby via 40k? And my question is, without that gateway, how many people would get into it? I think it would be a lot less than people realise. Im not sure if the other companies would be able to step up and maintain the hobby, or will people disappear, and the hobby retract? Are we enough to maintain the hobby by bringing in new blood, or will we all die off or walk away eventually leaving a void? I'd argue GW has the ability to attract folks beyond "geek culture" due to its brand name. It gets people off the street. I'd wonder if other wargames would end up recruiting just from the small minority that is geek culture, and those already exposed to it, rather than the larger potential pool.

Regarding the FLGS issue, even in the UK, the FLGSs have a presence. Here in Scotland, the main gaming hubs are independents - 6s to hit in Edinburgh, (and they're making a massive move up in the world), Common Ground Games in Stirling, Highlander Games in Dundee, and you have the other various shops in Glasgow etc. My local (worlds at war) closed recently, but the owner cited increased competition in the region - i think he named something like 15 local LGSs within an hour's drive here in Scotland, and thats not including any of the GWs. the thing with LGSs is they dont make their money on wargames. they make money on wargames, card games, board games, comics etc. But will they maintain wargames as a big thing without the behemoth that is GW? they're also small and local and few have national, let alone global reach. GW is worldwide.

Personally, what i think would be an interesting direction is GW doing a Sega, and turning into a contract manufacturer/ distributer. Imagine if GW manufacturing (with all they experience and technology) manufactured the plastic ranges for other games. Imagine if the GW retail chain was spun out to a greater extend, and used to sell all these other games, like they used to way back in the day. you'd have a worldwide chain gaming store. Not good for LGSs but i could see GW seeing benefits in it.

Overall, i think the hobby would continue, but it would be smaller, and probably more niche. It would definately have a few years worth of uncertainties and concerns.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 08:22:16


Post by: cammy


Deadnight - I agree.

I think GW going wouldn't leave more of a market share for other companies, it would decrease the size of the market, leaving a smaller slice of the pie left for the others.

Some would continue and would thrive without GW however a lot of the smaller less established companies I would see going under and the size of the market would decrease that much it wouldn't be profitable for them


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 08:40:18


Post by: Fireraven


You would see 50% decrease in war gaming products in store. Some roughly 1/3 would close within 6 months. Most local stores are heavily invested in gw products. Paints, minis, rule books and modeling supplies. Citadel being gone will hurt other war games because they are not used only for gw products. Within 3-5 years it would stablize but the first 3 years you would see the shut down of a ton of stores. After that other games would pick up the slack but the initial shut down would hurt due to products one day going from retail to worthless over night.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 09:02:19


Post by: BrianDavion


I think it's have a negitive impact, even if gaming shops don't close down due to investment in GW products, 40K is, as I like to say the "Dungeons and Dragons of table top wargaming"
it's the one game in the genre most people who don't play know about. it's that "gateway game" for a LOT of gamers, and it being gone means that the community likely will have it's growth slowed


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 11:24:09


Post by: Compel


Aren't one of the results of GW shrinking / retreating from their major stores in the US (Glen Burnie, is it?), been that the 'best' / most popular, former GW managers having opened up FLGS' in their place. - I think this has happened in more than one location in the USA.

For the UK though, I think that can happen in some places, however in general, I think there would be a big short-medium term bad period for wargaming.

What I can see though, is wargaming become more and more integrated with board game stores, where the larger ones of them, which are already stocking X-Wing and Attack Wing - and potentially soon Mars Attacks, may start expanding into the other wargames.

In general though, I'd say the rest of the world will be fine and even prosper, it will be the UK that will mostly go through the hard period due to the lack of FLGS.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 11:29:07


Post by: leopard


Problem is not so much GW going down, but what happens to the corpse, dare say someone would buy it for the IPR, and if that was a suitably trollish organisation that could cause all sorts of expensive to resolve troubles.

It would on the plus side free up the better staff at GW to work for others and someone would no doubt pick up the manufacturing side


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 12:04:06


Post by: OrlandotheTechnicoloured


In the UK

there would be a major short term crash in gamers where all the folk that are GW exclusive (and that's still a lot) found they could not carry on getting new stuff and would give up (a minority would migrate to other manufacturers)

In the short term Independent stores would be relatively unaffected as not too many are heavily GW dependent as we have so many GW stores

In the medium term there would be far fewer people entering the hobby, this would badly effect other manufacturers and game stores. IN the UK at least lots of people first step into the hobby via GW stores or clubs playing GW games, some would still do so but I'll guestimate 30% or less than there are now

Long term things would pick up and improve, some of the bigger manufacturers might just start advertising in mainstream media (we moan at GW for not promoting the Hobby, but neither does anybody else in any major way, you see adverts from other companies but they are very niche, forums for those already in the hobby, thier own websites) as the found their new customer base falling. A new stable base would emerge, my guess is it would be significantly smaller than previously if they were lucky 50% of the GW ere numbers

I've less experience with the US market, but they've got more active mid sized players, are less dependant on GW high street stores you'd probably see less of an impact but there would still be a significant hit.

And Europe would fall somewhere between the tow extremes



If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 12:17:03


Post by: Sean_OBrien


Question is often asked with other companies who are/were major players in other industries.

Generally the same fears exist...no one is big enough, has enough reach, has enough product...

Generally the same thing happens...not much of anything, and life goes on.

By the time it actually happened, the replacements would be well seated to move in. The stores that don't prepare for it - will fail, which is a good way to separate the chaff.

I doubt you would see anyone buy the manufacturing. Maybe Renedra or a company already doing it might use the opportunity to pick up some newer machines on the cheap though.

I doubt anyone would buy the IP in any real way...just not that much there there.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 13:19:17


Post by: Vermis


Largely agreed with Filbert and Orlando. I'm certainly no economist, but from different little things I see, I'd guess the market would shrink a bit in the long term (after bouncing back after a minor crash) but not to the extent of some doom-saying here.

1. As Filbert says, GW's high street (more side-street these days?) presence is at the expense of FLGS presence. Maybe if GW moved out, they could regain a bit of that presence. Maybe they might gain enough interest and business to stay there.
As Filbert also says, the wargaming market is growing while GW is shrinking. Fewer people are buying GW products. How much of that deficit is made up of the target market - little Timmy and his parents looking for a new distraction for a couple of months? I dunno. Either way, sales are dropping, and I've read the anecdotes of new kids sneering at GW prices and going straight to Warmachine and the like. People aren't just leaving GW but beginning to bypass it entirely. GW is still a big fish in a small pond, but it's becoming less and less relevant.
After a while it might only be left with those diehard customers that won't even consider anything outside the core two, which is looking more and more likely. If GW goes under, will the loss of those diehards to the wider wargaming market, really cripple it? They're not really contributing to it as it is, and it somehow manages to thrive. I doubt they'd be any huge loss. Anyway, I'm convinced that a lot of those stick with GW mostly because of 'convenience' (with a hefty side of spoonfeeding) and inertia. Not to torture a metaphor, but if GW stops stuffing bits of chewed-up worms into their gaping, squawking beaks, I'll say some of them will fly the nest to greener wargaming pastures rather than sit there and starve.

Bypassing is as Deadnight says. What Deadnight doesn't say is that kids were able to get into wargaming before GW came along, as amazing as that might seem. Some of them are still around as old grognards who discovered wargaming via historical minis (often Airfix 1/72 plastics) or discovering Don Featherstone's books in the school library, and still shake their heads at this Warhammer fad. Rich Clarke of Too Fat Lardies is trying to revive that, to some degree. Is it timely, given GW's shrinking? Will that give it a boost? I don't know. I'd like to think it would.

Edit: Sean reminded me of another small point. The Renedra guys are ex-GW, and generally have a waiting list of 18 months, IIRC. Aside from the plastic injection machines, if GW goes under that's going to leave a few people with the skills and experience jobless. I'd guess most or all would move on to similar jobs outside the wargaming remit, but Renedra boosting it's workforce, or even a new PI business catering to the hobby, sounds like a promising prospect.

2. They also developed Gary Morley and Trish Carden. And some have left because GW was constricting their creativity too much rather than feeding it. (Andy Chambers, at least? Or Rick Priestly, who developed GW rather than vice-versa.) Bit of a non-point, IMO.

3. I'm not immune to the shiny rulebook syndrome, but I'm not convinced that it's a triumph for the wargaming hobby. It starts to wear off after a while. I'm not so thrilled that a lot of new games or rulesets have a £30+ price tag and a big coffee-table brick to haul around to gaming venues, even if the practical and aesthetic contents are dynamite. (or especially not thrilled if only the aesthetic contents are) I have a few on my rulebook shelf, but for some of them I hunted or waited for discounts before buying them. Case in point, God of Battles. It's a really nice, tactical set of rules, but if you take out half of the clatter of (usually large) colour photos and the rest of the extraneous crap (and as we're talking Foundry's fantasy minis and Kev Dallimore's painting, I do mean crap) that enormous book could easily be a about a third of it's current size, and less than it's original price tag, even with colour and hardbacks. I say original 'cos it seems the size and price didn't attract many buyers, and it seems to be constantly discounted these days.
Not to mention that some of my favourite, or most interesting-looking rulesets are slim paperbacks, almost pamphlets, or downloadable files.

4. I guess they'd have to branch out or die. I'd be interested to see the former, wouldn't lose much sleep over the latter. The world doesn't need too many more space knights in armour that looks like finely-filigreed dustbins.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 13:41:28


Post by: xxvaderxx


1- The IP would be bought.

2- There are no FLGS that are 100% exclusive GW, in fact in the rest of the world i would venture the trend is the exact opposite with GWs volume ever decreasing. It is not GW that keeps Hobby store opens, its Magic the gathering.

3- On the hobby side of things, Vallejo paints are by far the best acrylics out there, the only "paints" worth saving on GWs side are the washes which would be missed.

4- Market share would not disappear, it would only change names, the hobby is wargamming not Warhammer. GW might be the intro to it now, should it dissappear many companies would "fight to the death" for the lucrative spot.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 14:13:17


Post by: Crazy_Carnifex


Initially, I expect that the industry will take a hit. GW is a big player, especially in the UK, and I expect that we will see the effects of it going down. You'd not only lose GW stores, but GW will also take down the symbiotic companies which make their major business by making stuff for use in GW games. FLGS' which are heavily dependent on GW will also fold, however, a lot of FLGS's I know of rely on MTG, Boardgames, and/or collectables to pay the bills, and simply use wargaming to turn a profit- while GW going belly up might hurt these guys, most will probably survive.

Almost immediately, however, you will begin to see other companies fighting for dominance, and eventually one will find itself as a big leader in terms of market share. While I expect that, without a big force driving it the market will shrink, this new leader will be able to grow the market back up. The Wargaming market might even get bigger if the eventual winner is someone willing to actually try to grow the market, as opposed to letting the market just come to them.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 14:27:32


Post by: slowthar


This thread needs a qualifier by region. From the sounds of it, the hobby in the UK would take a hit simply because of the larger percentage of "gaming" stores that are GW stores.

Here in the US, I doubt there would be much issue. The FLGSs might take a bit of a hit initially, however most of them have a strong MtG following that's a good percentage of their business, and they also have other war-games like Warmahordes that already have a growing community. There'd probably be a bit of a shake up, but in the end the industry would probably end up much healthier as the barrier to entry would be lower and there'd be more competition driving innovation and variety.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 14:53:22


Post by: Davor


If GW went down, the gaming community will shrink in the long run. In the short run a lot of game companies will flourish because I believe people will want their gaming and will be forced to go else where now or quit. That is short term.

In long term, the Hobby will be dying a slow death unless someone else can pick up. While as someone said, GW is NOT the HOBBY, but without GW the Hobby would not be as big as it is now.

GW is like Star Wars in a way. Without Star Wars there would be no Star Trek Movies. Without Star Trek Movies there would be no more Star Trek shows. Without Star Trek shows, there not be other Sci Fi shows like Battlestar Galactica and Fire Fly, Stargate etc.

Without Star Wars the toy line wouldn't be so big. The comic toy line wouldn't be hugs as it is now. There could be no Hero Clix and other spin off games.

Without GW we wouldn't have people dissatisfied and being felt disrespected that they would have to quit GW and go else where. Without these dissatisfied people there would be no Privateer Press and Warmahordes. There would be no Inifinty and other companies. Wait, maybe there would be, but no way in hell would they be as popular now without these dissatisfied people.

So while GW is not the Hobby and didn't start the Hobby, they made a big impact on the Hobby to make it popular and show that there is other games out there.

So in the long run, if there is no more GW and PP and Inifinty (sorry forget the company name) can't pick up the reign of GW then the Hobby will become a very niches hobby again. Without GW the popularity will not be there as there is now unless someone else can step up to the plate.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 15:05:20


Post by: Litcheur


 Sean_OBrien wrote:
I doubt anyone would buy the IP in any real way...just not that much there there.

Why?

Bandai would probably spend some major cash to buy the 40k IP. Their ranges are sorely lacking in the Sci-Fi department, I think they could really be interested in Taus and all these mecha things.

Hasbro would probably be interested in the WHFB IP for the very same reasons. Adding elves, dwarves, skelettons, vampires and other über-creative stuff to D&D would probably be a nice idea.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 15:11:36


Post by: Riquende


Litcheur wrote:

Hasbro would probably be interested in the WHFB IP for the very same reasons. Adding elves, dwarves, skelettons, vampires and other über-creative stuff to D&D would probably be a nice idea.


You'd need to buy Warhammer to put Elves, Dwarves, Skeletons and Vampires in things?


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 15:23:13


Post by: Sean_OBrien


Davor wrote:
If GW went down, the gaming community will shrink in the long run. In the short run a lot of game companies will flourish because I believe people will want their gaming and will be forced to go else where now or quit. That is short term.

...some stuff...

So in the long run, if there is no more GW and PP and Inifinty (sorry forget the company name) can't pick up the reign of GW then the Hobby will become a very niches hobby again. Without GW the popularity will not be there as there is now unless someone else can step up to the plate.


I think you are greatly over estimating the importance of GW. They haven't had that great of an impact outside of a very narrow segment of a very narrow hobby. That hobby existed before and will exist after. There are a few things that GW has influenced to some extent (ridiculously large shoulder pads...though to be fair - the Japanese have had a greater impact there).

There is likely an easier argument to be made for a game IP like Battletech to be that significant (dozens of video games, spinoffs, cartoons, influenced movies, hundreds of books...) - though largely I tend to believe that it is less about the IP and more about the void that needed filling. Were it not 40K, it would have been any number of other games that were developed in similar ways during the same time period.

Because GW does very little to actually build and grow the wargaming hobby, their impact when gone will be insignificant. If they were actually advertising and recruiting in any active manner - the loss would be more severe - but they aren't so it won't.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 Riquende wrote:
Litcheur wrote:

Hasbro would probably be interested in the WHFB IP for the very same reasons. Adding elves, dwarves, skelettons, vampires and other über-creative stuff to D&D would probably be a nice idea.


You'd need to buy Warhammer to put Elves, Dwarves, Skeletons and Vampires in things?


If you ask GW...then yes, of course. They invented the internet too.

I do believe though that that was a bit of French humor that is hard to pick up on online (at least I hope as much). Note it also applies to the comment above regarding Bandai and the mecha things...which are wholly original to 40K...invented while watching clouds and thinking about butterflies or however their design studio comes up with ideas.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 15:35:15


Post by: Litcheur


 Riquende wrote:
Litcheur wrote:

Hasbro would probably be interested in the WHFB IP for the very same reasons. Adding elves, dwarves, skelettons, vampires and other über-creative stuff to D&D would probably be a nice idea.

You'd need to buy Warhammer to put Elves, Dwarves, Skeletons and Vampires in things?

That's the point. I wouldn't spend a penny on the settings. Especially the WHFB one.

Taking a "not Earth" map, putting the not-french humans in not-France, the not-german humans in not-Germany, the not-arab humans in not-north-africa, the jungle in not-south-america... Meh. Not even talking about Albion, Norska, Ind, Cathay, Nippon...
If you ever wondered, Australia & New Zealand are the "Lost Isles" (of... whatever).
And Canada is Naggaroth.
Just add some good/evil dwarves/elves, vampires, egyptian mummies (not scottish ones), ratmen, lizardmen, goatmen, dogmen and birdmen. Wow, that's really, really impressive.

The 40k setting is slightly more interesting, but again, it's not that great. Not-Terminators fighting against Not-Mechas, Not-Space-Elves, Not-Space-Nuns, Not-Space-Dwarves... *yawn*...
I would spend some spare cash on Slaves to Darkness and Lost and Damned, though.

The moulds are definitely worth something too, but it doesn't means a company would buy all the ranges. Or be interested in adding wolf-flying-dumpster or copter-piloting-dwarves to their range.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 15:42:50


Post by: xxvaderxx


Davor wrote:

In long term, the Hobby will be dying a slow death unless someone else can pick up. While as someone said, GW is NOT the HOBBY, but without GW the Hobby would not be as big as it is now.

GW is like Star Wars in a way. Without Star Wars there would be no Star Trek Movies. Without Star Trek Movies there would be no more Star Trek shows. Without Star Trek shows, there not be other Sci Fi shows like Battlestar Galactica and Fire Fly, Stargate etc.

Without Star Wars the toy line wouldn't be so big. The comic toy line wouldn't be hugs as it is now. There could be no Hero Clix and other spin off games.


Lol way to talk out of your ass, Star Trek show predates Star Wars episode 4 by a decade. Human condition (sociological and political) Sci Fi novel go back way longer than that.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 15:51:40


Post by: Compel


I think you missed the subtlety of what Davor wrote there.

He said Star Trek movies not shows. The reason Star Trek The Motion Picture came out the way it did, in the way it was, genuinely was to jump onto the Star Wars hype.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 15:55:58


Post by: xxvaderxx


 Compel wrote:
I think you missed the subtlety of what Davor wrote there.

He said Star Trek movies not shows. The reason Star Trek The Motion Picture came out the way it did, in the way it was, genuinely was to jump onto the Star Wars hype.


Or was Star Wars jumping on the void of the Star Trek Show?. That is why is bs. Chicken or the egg and in the end it does not matter.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 16:00:24


Post by: ntw3001


I imagine, in the UK at least, there would be a period in which the market would contract due to the lack of FLGS around here. Long term though, I think the shops would appear (there's enough money in board and card games for game shops to spring up, and I would expect miniatures games to come with them) and the market would be just the same. GW has grown it, but I don't think their absence would shrink it. The Internet is around these days, and TTGs is a lively enough niche that it won't drop off the map from the brief loss of a few shops.

That said, I got into 40k through a friend, and I suppose the reason I stayed with it until university was because of White Dwarf and the GW shops. It was nice to spend time in the shop, and it was nice to go into the GW whenever I went to a new town. But then, if this all happened post-GW, my friend might have got me into Infinity. Then I'd be hooked on that, and stick with it due to internet discussion and trips to the FLGS. Instead of my friends (who were mostly recruited from the same word-of-mouth source, so would have been playing the same game even if it wasn't 40k) agreeing to try out most of the SGs together, we'd have been doing the same for Dreadball or Warmachine. I don't think there would be any real difference; GW's built up the industry, but it's just not needed the way it used to be.

I do think, though, that the average age of the market would come to skew higher, because only GW is really gunning for the youngsters. Possibly that would represent a section of the market being sliced out, but again in the long term I'd guess the result would be a change in the perception of the hobby as a whole (much like video games, with the expansion of their demographic to include mature players). Given the nature of the whole deal, I think the stigma of TTGs as a child's pastime is something artificially generated by GW. I mean, wargames were always nerdy, but it's only thanks to GW that they became childish.

Davor wrote:
GW is like Star Wars in a way. Without Star Wars there would be no Star Trek Movies. Without Star Trek Movies there would be no more Star Trek shows. Without Star Trek shows, there not be other Sci Fi shows like Battlestar Galactica and Fire Fly, Stargate etc.


Right. But now there are those things. If there were no futher Star Wars films in development, would they go away? Star Wars may have popularised sci-fi (or not; I don't know much about 70s sci-fi), but most of those shows arose in its absence. It happened, it created a market, then it went away and the market continued. Then it came back, but there might be ladies reading so let's not get into that.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 16:04:57


Post by: NakedSeamus


I think that it would be more of a reorganization than a collapse. Before they failed I'd see them close their retail stores, which I would think is a good thing. The relationship between GW and FLGS' s is notoriously bad, thought perhaps less bad of late, but removing the company stores would force them to forge a relationship with the FLGS, give them better access to product, inventory return, promotional product. Swapping from a retail business to a distributor could save them millions in overhead every year, and reaching out to the FLGS could widen their market without increasing overhead. Give the support to them in place of the company stores and typically we'll have more play space with the benefits of all the GW store toys.

If it's either that or failure they have little choice right? ...right?


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 16:11:40


Post by: Platuan4th


While ST:TMP was released to cash in on the sci-fi popularity in the wake of Star Wars in the 80's, it was an idea that Roddenberry had brewing for a long time which would have happened eventually, Star Wars or not.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 16:18:11


Post by: Riquende


xxvaderxx wrote:

Or was Star Wars jumping on the void of the Star Trek Show?. That is why is bs. Chicken or the egg and in the end it does not matter.


You don't just 'jump in to the void' because it exists. Star Trek had been cancelled (by Abe Simpson no less) and there was no grand wave of sci fi that followed it. TV networks, film studios and the public didn't have a sci fi void that needed filling, they didn't want sci fi. Gene Roddenberry couldn't get his Phase 2 show off the ground throughout the 1970s, the pilot was later turned into The Motion Picture after Star Wars.

Star Wars itself was a reimagining of the old Buck Rogers serials of the '20s (George Lucas couldn't get the rights, so had to write his own version), it owed nothing to Star Trek. We can see the hype that Star Wars created also by looking at TV in the wake of it: shows like Battlestar Galactica, and the Gil Gerard Buck Rogers (full circle much?) getting greenlit. In short, you are bang wrong, and clearly know nothing of what you speak, though I can't be bothered going back to read how this relates at all to gaming.

Also, missed sarcasm earlier. My bad, misinterpreted the emoticon.

To go back to the more general point, I think we're now at a point where it wouldn't matter if GW went. Other games are out there and well known. More and more people are becoming connected to news channels that aren't GW specific (rather than just getting everything from White Dwarf... or whatever it is now). There has never been a greater time in world history for people involved in niche hobbies to find each other and hobby together. Companies have sprung up recently to cover most of GW's offerings - whereas before you'd have people who had moved on to other systems still relying on Citadel paints, terrain, basing materials, etc etc, we're at a point now where alternatives exist for everything, and thanks to the efforts of some of the larger online retailers, it's not hard to get hold of any of it.

In the UK there would be a reduced uptake of the hobby for a while in the pre-/early teen age groups. That's about the sum of what would happen, but in time a new generation of FLGS would emerge, and I'd hope things like school clubs would pick up some of the slack.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 16:24:45


Post by: khealos


xxvaderxx wrote:


Or was Star Wars jumping on the void of the Star Trek Show?. That is why is bs. Chicken or the egg and in the end it does not matter.


A new Trek series was in development at that time period, Star Trek Phase II. A lot of what became the Motion Picture was in the pilot and a few scripted episodes. With the unprecedented success of Star Wars Paramount decided to relaunch it as a movie franchise.

Would Phase II have led to a popular franchise as the movies? Would TNG have come along? hard to say. My crystal ball is in the shop.

On topic - should GW fold there may be an initial downturn in the hobby as the remaining players try to snap up GW's market share. Now that there are more games out there - WMH, Infinity, Dropzone, Bolt Action, and others, I think the industry will survive. It would be an object lesson to each company that they are not invaluable.

Palm and Blackberry were on the top of the world in the cell phone game only they failed adjust to the new players, new circumstances, and a new way to do things.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 16:50:42


Post by: Guildsman


Litcheur wrote:
 Riquende wrote:
Litcheur wrote:

Hasbro would probably be interested in the WHFB IP for the very same reasons. Adding elves, dwarves, skelettons, vampires and other über-creative stuff to D&D would probably be a nice idea.

You'd need to buy Warhammer to put Elves, Dwarves, Skeletons and Vampires in things?

That's the point. I wouldn't spend a penny on the settings. Especially the WHFB one.

Taking a "not Earth" map, putting the not-french humans in not-France, the not-german humans in not-Germany, the not-arab humans in not-north-africa, the jungle in not-south-america... Meh. Not even talking about Albion, Norska, Ind, Cathay, Nippon...
If you ever wondered, Australia & New Zealand are the "Lost Isles" (of... whatever).
And Canada is Naggaroth.
Just add some good/evil dwarves/elves, vampires, egyptian mummies (not scottish ones), ratmen, lizardmen, goatmen, dogmen and birdmen. Wow, that's really, really impressive.

The 40k setting is slightly more interesting, but again, it's not that great. Not-Terminators fighting against Not-Mechas, Not-Space-Elves, Not-Space-Nuns, Not-Space-Dwarves... *yawn*...
I would spend some spare cash on Slaves to Darkness and Lost and Damned, though.

The moulds are definitely worth something too, but it doesn't means a company would buy all the ranges. Or be interested in adding wolf-flying-dumpster or copter-piloting-dwarves to their range.

I think you've hit the nail on the head. The Warhammer settings aren't remotely original, nor are they important enough. I'll be surprised, no, shocked, if the IP gets picked up. For a bit of context, Dungeons and Dragons barely survived the collapse of TSR, and only because a fan happened to be in a position of enough authority at Hasbro to pick it up. D&D was a full-blown cultural phenomenon, and it almost went the way of the dodo. Who will do the same for 40K?


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 18:15:02


Post by: Lockark


Alot of new people coming into this hooby aren't starting with GW games any more. War-machine, Infinity, and the wide selection from Spartan Games has started taking that role since they have less barriers to entry then GW's selection.


Companies who's who business model is based around making conversion bits for GW's plastic kits will be hit the hardest by GW dieing if it was to happen.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 18:37:50


Post by: Blacksails


Well, is the miniature wargaming market different enough that past lessons from other markets wouldn't give us insight as to a possible GW-less future?

I'm sure someone more knowledgeable about business would know of some examples in other markets, but I can't imagine the loss of GW would significantly alter the way the hobby is proceeding currently.

Really, the biggest losses I could see would be GW's aftermarket retailers, as mentioned a few times already, and the cities who are solely provided by a GW for their wargaming needs.

I can't see it being a bad thing to lose such a monolithic entity in the hobby and have more companies all sharing the pie.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 18:46:06


Post by: Iron_Captain


I think it would have a positive effect on other companies in the short term, as former GW customers would look for alternatives, but in the long term the effect would be negative as there would be less new people getting into the wargaming hobby.
GW is far more visible than all other wargaming companies combined thanks to their retail store chains in prominent, busy places and the popularity of their IP which also includes videogames and the like.
The vast majority of wargamers starts with GW and learns of the existence of the Wargaming hobby by being exposed to GW products/IP.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 19:43:34


Post by: Vermis


Riquende wrote:
You don't just 'jump in to the void' because it exists. Star Trek had been cancelled (by Abe Simpson no less) and there was no grand wave of sci fi that followed it. TV networks, film studios and the public didn't have a sci fi void that needed filling, they didn't want sci fi. Gene Roddenberry couldn't get his Phase 2 show off the ground throughout the 1970s, the pilot was later turned into The Motion Picture after Star Wars.


Yarp. Just yesterday I was reading the memoirs of a guy in the toy biz (this bit, after the Mickey puppet photo, in particular) saying that after the moon landing in 1969 (the year of ST: TOS's cancellation too) nobody was interested in space anymore. At least not in buying 'space toys'. It wouldn't be before 1977 until space became popular again. And even then it might not have happened: nobody was at all interested in what George Lucas came up with until audiences saw it in cinemas. At a mid-production showing for the industry, only one guy thought that there was any promise in it at all. Some guy called Steven...
(And then, after making a few mediocre films and a hit trilogy, it started to unravel and people saw that he really wasn't much of a genius filmmaker and his success was actually due to the people around him. A lot like Peter Jackson...)

 Iron_Captain wrote:
I think it would have a positive effect on other companies in the short term, as former GW customers would look for alternatives, but in the long term the effect would be negative as there would be less new people getting into the wargaming hobby.


There are fewer new people getting into the hobby via GW anyway. It could be that GW is increasingly chasing people away from the wargaming hobby.

GW is far more visible than all other wargaming companies combined thanks to their retail store chains in prominent, busy places


That's becoming less true, too.

and the popularity of their IP which also includes videogames and the like.


How popular are they outside the 'oh man these guys are just like my 40K army' set? Anyone got the sales figures and some comparisons?

The vast majority of wargamers starts with GW and learns of the existence of the Wargaming hobby by being exposed to GW products/IP


Before GW no wargamers started with GW. Maybe after GW the influx will be reduced a little, but I don't think it'll be as moribund as some make out. GW never advertised or marketed except with a B&M presence and word of mouth. After GW, I expect a resurgence in FLGSs and average gamers pimping their new favourite games will have some of the same effect. The latter's happening right now, especially since the 'word' about GW, more and more, is 'stay away'.

I said earlier that today's grognards are the ones who still scratch their heads about GW's popularity. In the event of GW's demise I expect the next generation of grognards to scratch their heads about GW's popularity too, except to wonder where it all went wrong, and why none of the kids give a rat's backside about their 50,000pts of spakky marians. That's happening right now too, with all the denials about GW's stupid decisions and how that turns people - including new kids - off.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 19:49:33


Post by: Platuan4th


 Vermis wrote:
GW never advertised or marketed except with a B&M presence and word of mouth.


That's less than true. GW used to buy ads in magazines such as Wizard back in the early 90's.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 19:54:25


Post by: Vermis


I'm sorry. Maybe that's the key to their revival. Another couple of magazine ads to keep them going for the next 20+ years?


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 20:29:48


Post by: MWHistorian


I'm torn. I do want GW to crash and burn, but I also don't know what it would do to the hobby. If it would hurt the hobby, then I'd want GW to stay afloat. If it wouldn't hurt, then let them go down.

My ideal would be for GW to slowly die into irrelevancy while several other companies take its place.

But honestly, I have no idea and can only guess.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 20:54:29


Post by: TheAuldGrump


I think that GW going under will have exactly the same effect as TSR going under - a lot of panic, a bunch of people going 'No! this cannot be!'

And somebody either buying the tattered remains of GW or scooping up the IP.

I do not see GW successfully selling themselves to another company until the end - while 40k is a good property, I believe that GW overvalues it (and themselves).

The effects of a collapsing GW on supporting companies are the only downsides that I currently see for GW falling like a souffle in an earthquake.

The Auld Grump


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 21:05:44


Post by: Accolade


The death of GW will be something like the Horus Heresy. A champion of destruction will unite gamers from across the world to lead an assault on Holy-Nottingham. The remaining Loyalists will retreat to the inner sanctums of Warhammer World, aware of their God-Emperor Kirby's demise, yet stalwart in their faith to the last. The battle will be grim, but at the end a champion of GW will strike down the demon princes of Privateer Press and Corvus Beli in single combat.

The remnants will rebuild their once-glorious empire, never truly allowing the masses to know that their great leader died, so many years ago.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 22:03:53


Post by: Tannhauser42


I suspect the death of GW will put the hurt on all the companies that make GW alternative models (Maxmini, Kromlech, etc.) as there will be less demand for their now unsupported product, but will benefit companies that make complete games (Corvus Belli, Privateer Press, Bolt Action, etc.) as demand will grow for currenty supported product.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 22:12:54


Post by: Howard A Treesong


Unless there's some looming disaster they're hiding, GW won't collapse overnight. Independent stores have time to prepare and ween themselves off a reliance on GW product. Many have already taken a blow when GW suddenly ended worldwide mail order. That put quite a dent in the sales of some stores, who sold product around the world, but they mostly managed. My local store has a huge amount of GW stock but all the other product lines are expanding and it's MtG where the killing seems to be made. I'd be more worried if MtG was going to suddenly vanish.

GW closing wouldn't be a help as they do create sales, but this is quite a big hobby and a lot of people aren't interested in what GW are selling, if they ever were. Also I think the benefits GW bring are overstated. GW bring some people into the hobby, but they've also made huge efforts to stifle the rest of the hobby by cutting their customers off from it. The decline in independent stores in the UK is largely due to the aggressive expansion they undertook in the 90s. GW doesn't help the wider hobby that much, they serve their own interests and are hostile towards all other manufacturers. Many customers seem to leave the hobby once they tire of GW, having little exposure or experience of anything else.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 22:16:45


Post by: Accolade


If GW *did* go out of business, I wonder if there would be any fan-organized effort to keep the game going, ala Blood Bowl. There's certainly such an abundance of WHFB and 40k products, and people definitely want to still be able to use their minis for gaming purposes. Of course, this effort wouldn't be anywhere near as strong as still-operating companies like, say, Privateer Press or Covrus Beli selling their current-and-up-to-date products, but I feel all these GW models will get used somehow.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 22:21:23


Post by: Platuan4th


 Howard A Treesong wrote:
Unless there's some looming disaster they're hiding, GW won't collapse overnight. Independent stores have time to prepare and ween themselves off a reliance on GW product. Many have already taken a blow when GW suddenly ended worldwide mail order. That put quite a dent in the sales of some stores, who sold product around the world, but they mostly managed. My local store has a huge amount of GW stock but all the other product lines are expanding and it's MtG where the killing seems to be made. I'd be more worried if MtG was going to suddenly vanish.


I've already seen a shift in many stores where GW sections have gotten smaller whilst other miniature sections have gotten larger and not just to make room for all the new games on the market.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 22:36:23


Post by: Tannhauser42


 Accolade wrote:
If GW *did* go out of business, I wonder if there would be any fan-organized effort to keep the game going, ala Blood Bowl. There's certainly such an abundance of WHFB and 40k products, and people definitely want to still be able to use their minis for gaming purposes. Of course, this effort wouldn't be anywhere near as strong as still-operating companies like, say, Privateer Press or Covrus Beli selling their current-and-up-to-date products, but I feel all these GW models will get used somehow.


Comparatively speaking, Blood Bowl is a much smaller, and much better written game than 40K, and thus takes far less effort on the part of the fans to keep it supported. On the 40K side, just look at how even the big tournaments can't all agree on one set of standards to use. Look at Dakka's YMDC forum to see how "easy" it is for people to agree on rules interpretations.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 22:49:19


Post by: Eilif


TheAuldGrump wrote:I think that GW going under will have exactly the same effect as TSR going under - a lot of panic, a bunch of people going 'No! this cannot be!'

And somebody either buying the tattered remains of GW or scooping up the IP.

I do not see GW successfully selling themselves to another company until the end - while 40k is a good property, I believe that GW overvalues it (and themselves).

The effects of a collapsing GW on supporting companies are the only downsides that I currently see for GW falling like a souffle in an earthquake.

The Auld Grump


This is essentially my point of view. However, if hypothetically GW did disappear completely, the following would happen.

1-Aftermarket suppliers using near-GW images and selling to GW customers would take a HUGE hit. Some would succeed on their own merit, but most would fail. GW is by far the biggest driver of the conversion parts market.
2-FLGS's would initially see a small dip as some GW players leave wargaming altogether. FLGS's would probably make this up and more shortly as folks move to other games and GW store shoppers start to shop at the FLGS instead.
3-The big winers would be the other large and established games that would welcome GW fans with open arms. Flames, WM, Infinity, mantic, etc, all would get new customers.
4-LOTS of companies would try to jump in with their own "mass-battle" games. Some of these companies would over-extend themselves financially, so we would loose
5-Some smaller companies would beniift. Most GW fans would probably migrate to a new all-in-one system, but without the necessity of spending all their $ on GW, some gamers might branch out into indie games as well.
6-There would be some competition and reshuffling at some game companies as ex-GW staff flood the job market. GW store staff are probably out of luck, but GW studio and design (and even some corporate) staff probably have lots of options.

Sum up, the big winners are FLGS owners (who get some ex-GW store customers) and the other "big games" are the big winners. In the past, I would have said that the hobby as a whole would suffer since GW has been the gateway drug for so many wargamers. I just don't think it's entirely the case anymore. GW is still probably the biggest gateway, but there are so many other popular games now that if GW disappeared newbies would enter from other doors.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 23:40:35


Post by: Fireraven


I think a great example of game companies going away over night is- Wizkids. They was a very popular company Mechwarrior they had a lock tight copyright and patent on the Click system as a whole hero clicks and everything else. But then came pirates the card game that you built ships out of cards and made them. Then Wizards was working on a pocket model version of star wars. Now wizards released the Star Wars game and Wiz instantly sued claiming IP their game and design after all was patented. What people did not know was the game designers from wizkids that made pirates went to work for WoC and designed the Star Wars game. Now what ended up happening is instead of paying Wizkids ( they knew they had a lock tight law suit and was going to get a huge settlement) Hasbro just bought WizKids. What they did was pretty sketchy they went to upper deck and basically bullied them into stopping production of all products from Wizkids. So now Wizkids is all but dead and Wizards does not even make the pocket model games any more.

Flames of war and all those games look great on paper but historical mini games have been done and done and done. They always end the same way normally gone or no one plays them after the newness wears off. I think GW does need to change things. They need to start making Rules and stop being a " Model Company"

With that said Star Wars attack wing is a dead game it self. All the designers are gone. They still have never fixed BORG and are just finishing the run they all ready had planned. They always was on 1/2 bail mode if the model orders slowed down they was going to can the game and still will. But they cannot openly say this if they do everyone will run immediatly to a new game actually causing them to end it sooner.

Same with GW if they come out and say hay guys we are stopping production after 7th edition of 40k for 4 years.(new models / Codexes) Then everyone and there mother would drop it on e-bay the stores would stop orders and they would go belly up within 3-4 months.


I think the problems with GW started around the time they start the Lord of the Rings crap. They diverted so many people to that game, making rules, designing models, and they went on auto pilot on 40k and Fantasy both. Now they are slowly learning and trying to repair it.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 23:53:05


Post by: Compel


I've not heard anything about that for wizkids at all. If anything, it's the opposite.

Attack Wing was launched in August 2013. - Pretty much exactly a year later, ICV2 released the stats that Attack Wing was the 3rd highest grossing wargame in the USA.

Now, I'm not going to disagree that the game has massive games balance problems, but to be frank, how much impact has that had on GW games for the last 35 years?


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/19 23:58:40


Post by: Fireraven


Well in itself not a lot but bleeding out of 1 cut is nothing, Getting cut by razor wire from a dozen different games that did not exist 5 years ago is. The wizkids deal went down almost 7 years ago now. The Wizkids today is not the same company by far it used to be. It basically got broken apart. Now they got a lot of money out of it but the player base is what got hurt. I remember selling my Mech warrior stuff for around 5k dollars then less then 3 months later they was gone. The game store that bought all them from me actually called me about it and asked if I knew they they was not going to be around before I sold them the models. And I'm talking multiple drop ships, ever tourney prize le mech's since the start Dark Age and over 3 cases of product per edition including the last one. They went from being worth a lot to nothing over night.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 01:15:38


Post by: Jehan-reznor


OMG it is true! So much hate towards GW and now even the mods make a thread about killing GW [joke]

Yes, i believe that companies that make "only" conversion parts will suffer. But as we seen before, the void left by discontinuing
other systems in GW were filled by other companies, also a lot of people who were hesitating to jump ship will finally do so.



If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 01:20:03


Post by: MWHistorian


If I were a company that only made stuff for GW models, I'd start diversifying. Maybe make complete models that could fit several different types of games or even their own small game.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 04:45:05


Post by: jonolikespie


I find this whole thread very interesting being an Australian.

I kind of see our market as what the US will turn unto if GW continue their current decline. We seem to have almost entirely, with a few die hard fanboy exceptions, weaned ourselves off GW and we seem to be thriving.

I imagine it could be a sudden blow for other markets if GW disappeared tomorrow but if its anything like what's currently happening here the only people hurt by it will be those foolish enough not to shif their focus despite a ton of warning signs.

As it is here most places only seem to carry the bare minimum GW stock and there are plenty of people being brought into the hobby by friends and starting with Warmachine or dyst wars while people wandering into GW stores almost die of shock at the price.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 08:19:07


Post by: Lanrak


A lot of people seem to be quoting the positive effect GW plc used to have in the 1990s.

When they had a lots of good game with good rule sets, and brought a wide range of people into the table top war game hobby.
With lots of good sized stores in high foot fall areas,that were 'hobby centers'.

Now GW plc seem to appeal to a very much smaller demographic , and seem to have such a negative effect in the wider world.

Just to point out 40k and WHFB were on a decline before LoTR was launched.(From the financial reports and other information available.)

The easy success the LoTR licence brought GW plc made them loose focus on what they were ,(by gamers for gamers,) and what was important (Customers needs.)

But its much easier to pretend nothing is wrong , when the alternative is having to make a massive U turn, and engage with customers in a meaningful way.

Even 5 years ago loosing GW plc would put a massive dent in the table top games hobby .
But now thanks to GW incompetent management , the effect will be quite minimal in 3 to 5 years time.

See how you can find a good side in anything if you try really hard.!


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 10:39:46


Post by: Kaptajn Congoboy


In the short run, GW disappearing in a puff of logic would have a beneficial effect on all other companies, as customers would migrate to them.
In the long run, GW's sudden absence would reduce the number of miniature gamers quite drastically as they are one of the big entry companies.
In the very long run, I think the miniature game scene would rebuild, but with more diversity. This can also happen if GW keeps bleeding customers.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 11:05:02


Post by: winterdyne


Lanrak wrote:
A lot of people seem to be quoting the positive effect GW plc used to have in the 1990s.


Honestly, the main difference is that you could buy a blister pack of something useful GW-related every week by saving a bit of lunch money.
The closest thing now is 3 push-fit plastic space marines at £6, or 5 skeletons for £6.

Considering I fondly remember buying 30 skeletons, 8 skeleton horsemen and a chariot for £10, it's a bit on the steep side these days.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 18:06:58


Post by: ComTrav


Does anyone know -- how much commonality is there between GW and other miniatures companies in secondary contractors, distribution channels, and the like?

For all its issues, 40k is still "the big game", and if it goes under, lots of people will quit entirely, lots of gaming stores will go out of business or give up shelf space to higher-margin products (read: Magic), and lots of secondary businesses will vanish (I don't think Battlefoam and the like would survive without is 40k related sales).

I also suspect that, for die-hard 40k/WHFB players (and that's what's left at this point), if GW goes down, they're just going to quit wargaming entirely. After investing all the time and money in a game and have it just vanish, I don't know that they would want to start over with Warmachine or whatever.

If someone buys GW, it's probably going to be for the IP, not the model business. Disney's very expensive acquisition of Marvel had everything to do with their stable of characters, and almost nothing to do with their monthly comic book sales. A lot of GW's dipping revenues are due to the loss of licensed video game revenue. It's possible to imagine a scenario where some well-heeled multimedia company buys the company, ditches the vestiges of the retail chain, aggressively pursues using the 40k IP in video games, comics, and other media, and maybe even outsources tabletop rules development and leaves Nottingham focused on the one function they are undeniably good at, the production of miniatures.

I kind of think the ideal scenario is that things go badly for GW, and then something happens to turn it around. Right now they are one of the only companies that can actually grow the market and the hobby in any meaningful way. Anecdotal: virtually every wargamer I've ever spoken with started playing with 40k, even if they've long since moved on to another company's games.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 19:35:45


Post by: Kilkrazy


One question that hasn't been settled is how big GW is compared to the overall size of the market.

GW themselves once claimed to be 95% of the wargame market. I suspect they are probably more like 20% if you include games liked X-Wing and other such titles.

If 20% of the whole market disappeared overnight, it might not have any significant effect at all, as the people who didn't transfer to other games would be the kind of people who only played GW and were never going to move on.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 19:49:24


Post by: Eilif


 Kilkrazy wrote:
One question that hasn't been settled is how big GW is compared to the overall size of the market.

GW themselves once claimed to be 95% of the wargame market. I suspect they are probably more like 20% if you include games liked X-Wing and other such titles.

If 20% of the whole market disappeared overnight, it might not have any significant effect at all, as the people who didn't transfer to other games would be the kind of people who only played GW and were never going to move on.


I don't doubt that they are significantly less than 95%, but even if they're as low as 20%, that would still really shake up alot of stores, suppliers. 1/5 of the market disappearing would be revolutionary in any area of business.

if GW is 20% of a game store's business (proably accurate for some FLGS), and it suddenly goes out of business. It's going to take at least a little while for GWers who do shift to other games to make the shift. A loss of 20% of revenue for a couple months is huge. Imagine what happens if those two months happen to be over the thanksgiving/christmas season, which is make-or-break for so many stores. 20% of sales for those 2 months could be HUGE, and could be more than some stores can cope with, especially if they don't have large reserves.

The market will survive, gaming will survive, most FLGS's will survive, but we would loose some FLGS's and some small GW-dependent companies.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 19:55:52


Post by: Kilkrazy


I think the players are less than 20% of all players, the amount of money spent is more than that because GW stuff is a lot more expensive, but since the bulk of it goes through their own shops and webstore, the impact on FLGS would be less severe.

It probably would be worse in the USA where there are more FLGS and fewer GW shops.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 20:02:49


Post by: Hulksmash


 Kilkrazy wrote:
One question that hasn't been settled is how big GW is compared to the overall size of the market.

GW themselves once claimed to be 95% of the wargame market. I suspect they are probably more like 20% if you include games liked X-Wing and other such titles.

If 20% of the whole market disappeared overnight, it might not have any significant effect at all, as the people who didn't transfer to other games would be the kind of people who only played GW and were never going to move on.


While 95% is obviously not the case (not since the mid 90's anyway) I think you sell them a little short. The inclusion of X-wing probably does push them below 50% of the market. Maybe even down below 40% (less likely but possible).

Take out pre-paint miniature games and GW probably does make up 60%+ of the market. Let's be real. How many miniature wargames are there right now? Well known and actually played ones that is? Warmachine/Hordes and Infinity with maybe Bolt Action and Flames of War in the distance. Maybe KoW and Warpath? I just don't see those games absorbing more than 40% of the market.

Either way, even at 20% you'd see a huge shake-up if they went belly up overnight. That said they aren't likely to go overnight. So it's not nearly as large a deal.

I think in the short run some companies will benefit while a fair number of FLGS take a solid hit. Medium term you'll see a stabilizing and possible growth of the existing major companies. Long term unless you start to get a pressence like GW currently has (i.e. being everywhere) you'll see a decline in the number of kids entering the hobby. Like it or not many, many, many of the people who get into wargaming come into it thru GW. Why? Always available demo games at a ridiculous number of public stores. While some people might be available to run demos of games at the FLGS the simple fact is that if someone isn't there to run a demo game you don't get nearly the number of new players.

We'd just have to wait and see though.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
If you are talking about players then possibly. But that wasn't what your post indicated.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 20:38:59


Post by: Pacific


 Kilkrazy wrote:
One question that hasn't been settled is how big GW is compared to the overall size of the market.

GW themselves once claimed to be 95% of the wargame market. I suspect they are probably more like 20% if you include games liked X-Wing and other such titles.



Assume we are just talking about the fantasy/sci-fi market here? Historicals wargaming existed many years before GW, would exist many years afterwards if it were to suddenly disappear. I don't think people who only play 40k say or post on a forum or two realise how big that side of the market is.

In answer to the OP, I think it would no doubt cause a big ripple, but the effect in 2014 would be far less than probably even 5 years ago. If you only played or knew of GW games for wargaming then it might cause you to quit altogether, but these days you can't really play in GW stores and if you do play in a club/FLGS then it's almost certain that you would know of the existence of other games. And, even if GW stopped making new games remember that the existing kits and rulesets would probably stay in circulation for many years.



If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 21:07:26


Post by: Deadnight


 Hulksmash wrote:

Take out pre-paint miniature games and GW probably does make up 60%+ of the market. Let's be real. How many miniature wargames are there right now? Well known and actually played ones that is? Warmachine/Hordes and Infinity with maybe Bolt Action and Flames of War in the distance. Maybe KoW and Warpath? I just don't see those games absorbing more than 40% of the market.
.


Spartan games too.

Historicals make up a far bigger section of war games, and war games players than you give credit for hulksmash.

Gw is an undeniable big fish in the sci/fi fantasy element of wargames, but bear in mind, this is only a small part if the greater hobby.



If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 21:11:08


Post by: Fireraven


Ok everyone brings up Magic. I used to play Magic very hardcore events every weekend not local but big 200+ player events. On average I bought 1-2 cases of magic every set. This was at that time around 450 each case. 900 per set at 3 block sets + per year. 2700 +per year in cards not including travel and event costs. Now if any one says they invest in cost alone 1k in there army in models and paint a year I would be shocked. The models last Year's , even the rules do. Even me buying every basic codex made and the data slates for a few armies I use/see regularly it is no where near that amount per year. In my mid late 20's I used to spend 9-12k per year in hobby related items, rc cars, planes, models, cards, and assorted board games. Now maybe 6-700 per year. When I quit magic around 06 when my daughter was born I sold cases of cards I have won and never opened. Starcity games bought part of my collection and several unopened boxes of alliances from me and even then it was the highest value they had ever paid for 1 collection. I went to my local gaming store and opened my last sealed box of it and gave the owner and a few of the people I played with a unplayed force of will right out of the pack. All of them still have then to this day most are still unplayed.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 21:28:54


Post by: Sean_OBrien


Deadnight wrote:
 Hulksmash wrote:

Take out pre-paint miniature games and GW probably does make up 60%+ of the market. Let's be real. How many miniature wargames are there right now? Well known and actually played ones that is? Warmachine/Hordes and Infinity with maybe Bolt Action and Flames of War in the distance. Maybe KoW and Warpath? I just don't see those games absorbing more than 40% of the market.
.


Spartan games too.

Historicals make up a far bigger section of war games, and war games players than you give credit for hulksmash.

Gw is an undeniable big fish in the sci/fi fantasy element of wargames, but bear in mind, this is only a small part if the greater hobby.



Perspective is an interesting thing. When you are in GW looking out (like probably 90% of Dakka...) - there is nothing other than GW. When you are outside GW - GW is a pretty small segment.

How many miniature games? Thousands. Played all the time. By lots of people. How many are well known? BS question. Undefined, and not worth of attempting to answer...because any attempt to answer will result in goal posts moving.

I would be a little surprised if GW were 20% of the overall sales (figure they are around 15%). I would be extremely surprised if they were more than 10% of the total gamers - with those who only play GW being down around probably as low as 5% now. Granted, they are a larger chunk of the fiction games. An even larger part of the science fiction games. And an even larger part of the mass combat science fiction games...


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 21:29:16


Post by: Blacksails


Fireraven wrote:
Ok everyone brings up Magic. I used to play Magic very hardcore events every weekend not local but big 200+ player events. On average I bought 1-2 cases of magic every set. This was at that time around 450 each case. 900 per set at 3 block sets + per year. 2700 +per year in cards not including travel and event costs. Now if any one says they invest in cost alone 1k in there army in models and paint a year I would be shocked. The models last Year's , even the rules do. Even me buying every basic codex made and the data slates for a few armies I use/see regularly it is no where near that amount per year. In my mid late 20's I used to spend 9-12k per year in hobby related items, rc cars, planes, models, cards, and assorted board games. Now maybe 6-700 per year.


And this had what to do with the topic at hand? I mean, its great and all you have so much disposable income, but I'm not understanding what you're getting at besides some other hobbies being expensive.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 21:31:46


Post by: Sean_OBrien


Fireraven wrote:
Ok everyone brings up Magic. I used to play Magic very hardcore events every weekend not local but big 200+ player events. On average I bought 1-2 cases of magic every set. This was at that time around 450 each case. 900 per set at 3 block sets + per year. 2700 +per year in cards not including travel and event costs. Now if any one says they invest in cost alone 1k in there army in models and paint a year I would be shocked. The models last Year's , even the rules do. Even me buying every basic codex made and the data slates for a few armies I use/see regularly it is no where near that amount per year. In my mid late 20's I used to spend 9-12k per year in hobby related items, rc cars, planes, models, cards, and assorted board games. Now maybe 6-700 per year. When I quit magic around 06 when my daughter was born I sold cases of cards I have won and never opened. Starcity games bought part of my collection and several unopened boxes of alliances from me and even then it was the highest value they had ever paid for 1 collection. I went to my local gaming store and opened my last sealed box of it and gave the owner and a few of the people I played with a unplayed force of will right out of the pack. All of them still have then to this day most are still unplayed.


And that is interesting...in so much as it shows how much someone who plays large tournaments spends but has little bearing on how much a casual gamer spends, and nothing about this thread...

Again, perspective. Casual gamers are who spend much more money - because there are many, many more of them. The ones who buy a single booster when they are getting a gallon of milk at Walmart... They play every other Thursday when their kids are at piano lessons...


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 21:34:52


Post by: Blacksails


How much did wargaming Kickstarters generate the last year?

I remember it being a significant number anyways.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 21:41:44


Post by: Sean_OBrien


 Kilkrazy wrote:
One question that hasn't been settled is how big GW is compared to the overall size of the market.

GW themselves once claimed to be 95% of the wargame market. I suspect they are probably more like 20% if you include games liked X-Wing and other such titles.

If 20% of the whole market disappeared overnight, it might not have any significant effect at all, as the people who didn't transfer to other games would be the kind of people who only played GW and were never going to move on.


I had never seen the 95% claim...I don't think they could have ever made that claim with a straight face...ever, never, not ever.

At their largest, they had a large chunk of science fiction - a very large chunk of fantasy (mostly because of LotR miniatures as opposed to WFB) and a respectable portion of historical rules (Warhammer Historical rules were probably some of the best written rules GW ever did). This was on the upswing of the LotR movies and when the internet was still new and shiny for a lot of companies...and a few other companies had done a good job of souring the online store waters (couldn't go a week without hearing of someone else New Wave ripped off). Many of the competitive companies had gone under for various reasons - and it left a void to be filled.

Even then, they had almost nothing in terms of dollars for historical miniatures, and I don't think they went over 50% for either fantasy or science fiction. Local store sales would have been higher - as even back in the day of the SASE, that demographic who wanted something different generally skipped over the hyped and heavily marketed (for miniatures) games that end up showing up on store shelves.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 21:50:59


Post by: Kilkrazy


Who is to say what GW claim with a straight face?

[Inserts Razorgor "Porsche" model.]

Certainly they have always been bigger in SF/Fantasy than in Historicals, and Historicals makes up a large market that many GW fans are not aware of.

Anyway, if you blow up a balloon and then let the air out, the balloon collapses. However if you blew up the balloon in a tub of cement, and let the air out when the cement had dried, the hollow would not collapse. What I mean to illustrate with this slightly bizarre parable is that just becasue GW were (arguably) responsible for the growth of the wargames market, it doesn't mean the wargames market would collapse without them.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 21:56:00


Post by: Hulksmash


 Sean_OBrien wrote:
 Kilkrazy wrote:
One question that hasn't been settled is how big GW is compared to the overall size of the market.

GW themselves once claimed to be 95% of the wargame market. I suspect they are probably more like 20% if you include games liked X-Wing and other such titles.

If 20% of the whole market disappeared overnight, it might not have any significant effect at all, as the people who didn't transfer to other games would be the kind of people who only played GW and were never going to move on.


I had never seen the 95% claim...I don't think they could have ever made that claim with a straight face...ever, never, not ever.

At their largest, they had a large chunk of science fiction - a very large chunk of fantasy (mostly because of LotR miniatures as opposed to WFB) and a respectable portion of historical rules (Warhammer Historical rules were probably some of the best written rules GW ever did). This was on the upswing of the LotR movies and when the internet was still new and shiny for a lot of companies...and a few other companies had done a good job of souring the online store waters (couldn't go a week without hearing of someone else New Wave ripped off). Many of the competitive companies had gone under for various reasons - and it left a void to be filled.

Even then, they had almost nothing in terms of dollars for historical miniatures, and I don't think they went over 50% for either fantasy or science fiction. Local store sales would have been higher - as even back in the day of the SASE, that demographic who wanted something different generally skipped over the hyped and heavily marketed (for miniatures) games that end up showing up on store shelves.


I don't doubt the size of the historicals market. I don't doubt it's buying power. However of the models that are played in FLGS stores historicals might as well not even exist. I think it's fair to assume when we're talking about the market it's the sci-fi/fantasy market. That's the market that the vast majority of our peers are in and that FLGS's carry. In all my years of various sci-fi/fantasy gaming I've only seen historicals played at conventions. Never seen a game played in a store or at a club. Never seen the product on the shelves. And never seen anyone under the age of 40 playing it. Not saying it isn't there, just that it's a completely different portion of the market.

To me it feels like there are 3 wargaming markets. Historical/Modern, Sci-fi/Fantasy, and Pre-Painted's. I never, ever, would have gotten into Historicals. Just wouldn't have happened. Not because I don't like historical periods but because they might as well not exist for younger gamers because they aren't there to be seen on most local levels. Pre-Painted's are huge. I remember how big MechWarrior was and several other clix games. And now games like X-Wing and Attack Wing are huge as well. Sci-fi/Fantasy is still heavily dominated by GW. Mass Battle systems are entirely GW at 28mm with GW being non-existant in any other scale now.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 21:58:49


Post by: Sean_OBrien


 Blacksails wrote:
How much did wargaming Kickstarters generate the last year?

I remember it being a significant number anyways.


Tough number to get a specific answer on. Tabletop games were almost $60 million in 2013 and $18 million in 2012. A lot of those were "miniature" games in a round about way. Many are non-traditional board games with a significant component that is miniatures related.



I think I had seen a blog post sometime last February that had tallied up by hand the only miniatures/wargame related totals (no boardgame component to them) and they came up with something in the $25-30 million range...though I can't find it.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 22:18:10


Post by: Fireraven


So by that it a lot more competition for GW then ever before. So with that GW needs to step up and take control again.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 22:18:47


Post by: Sean_OBrien


 Hulksmash wrote:
I think it's fair to assume when we're talking about the market it's the sci-fi/fantasy market.


I don't.

Warlord and Flames of War are both going after the same dollars as are spent on 40K. Many people who play 40K do so because they enjoy tanks - they can get their treadhead fix with 40K tanks or with WWII tanks.

Lot of the same people who wrote the rules for GW are now writing rules for historical games - and they took a lot of their following with them.

Ancient games have been a core to wargaming...since...well...always. Again, depending on what it is you want - you might want a mass of knights on horseback. You can get that fix in WFB or playing something like a DBM Renaissance game.

They are not often a core game held by game stores though. Then again - most games aren't (sci-fi or fantasy included). Your average game store will carry less than a half dozen different games. It is easier for them. Most people don't play in stores. It is harder for them. If you can't buy your toys in a store (because the store doesn't carry them) and you don't play in the store (because the store doesn't have a beer tap) - your store gamer will not even realize those people exist. However, they come out from time to time for conventions (though most don't - as they don't have a beer tap either).

And yet - just like air...just because I can't see it, doesn't mean it isn't there. I can see the impact of it (again - just like air when the wind blows). Companies like the Perry Brothers, WGF, Fire Forge, Warlord (ancients side of the house), Gripping Beast and others (just in the odd 28mm size) have found the market large enough to justify paying for plastic molds to be made. That is one heck of a wind right there - without actually getting deep into the weeds.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 22:24:56


Post by: Compel


Beasts of War did a long discussion a couple of months ago in their weekender.

They went through all the stats for the USA based on the Spring 2014 ICV2 Results.

$450 million on CCGs
$125 million in minis
$75 million on boardgames
$35 million on card & dice games
$15 million on rpgs

------------------

They also discussed it in a weekender, which I can't find at all... Basically, they estimated that GW is about 50% of the minis market. With, I think about 80% of that 50% being Space Marines.

This was the same report that had:

1) 40k
2) X-Wing
3) Attack Wing
4) War Machine
5) Hordes

With Fantasy not in the top 5 anymore.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/20 22:46:54


Post by: Sean_OBrien


 Compel wrote:
Beasts of War did a long discussion a couple of months ago in their weekender.

They went through all the stats for the USA based on the Spring 2014 ICV2 Results.

$450 million on CCGs
$125 million in minis
$75 million on boardgames
$35 million on card & dice games
$15 million on rpgs


In stores...

Though not exactly. GW sold $60 million in the US last year. That includes GW stores, independent stores and online. Somewhere approaching 50% of their sales were direct (either GW stores or online). That leaves about $30 million going through an FLGS. Mark that up 40% for the margin that the stores charge and you get $42 million - roughly 33% of the US wargame market sold through independent game stores in the US.

Outside of the stores, direct sales, conventions, non-traditional game sources (1/72 scale models from hobby stores...) and the like account for a very large portion. Also - Crowdfunding (Kickstarter and sites like Indie Go Go were not included in the ICv2 survey). Also not included were many online sources (ICv2 deals primarily with B&M sales...though they do pick up some of those numbers with distribution surveys). Those account for another $100+ million a year in the US. Drops GW down below the 20% mark.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/21 00:15:06


Post by: -Loki-


 Hulksmash wrote:
I don't doubt the size of the historicals market. I don't doubt it's buying power. However of the models that are played in FLGS stores historicals might as well not even exist.


This is completely anecdotal depending on the stores you visit.

Personally, at my FLGS, 40k is played as a pick up game as often as Warmachine and Infinity. That is to say, almost never. Historicals are thriving, to the point that the store made a themed 12ftx4ft table for them to re-enact an enormous battle at 15mm scale.

Regarding 40k themselves, another local store held a mini-con about three weeks ago. They had demo tables on the first day for almost every mainstream game you could think of, including 40k (with amazingly painted Blood Angel and Daemon armies) and Space Hulk (I have no idea why, as you can't buy it anymore). The people demoing those ended up walking off and doing other demos themselves because no-one wanted a demo of 40k or Space Hulk. There was even a table demoing Bolt Action that was packed. I waited all day for a demo and never got one.

This same store is also the biggest retailer in the country when their online sales are included, and they stated (in an ACCC submission where GW was trying to strangle online sales here like they did in the US) that their GW sales have shrunk to 10-15% of their sales. Dystopian Wars v2 outsold 7th edition 40k 7-1. I don't doubt GW is dangerously losing ground in some countries, because I live in one of them.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/21 00:35:47


Post by: underfire wargaming


 Hulksmash wrote:
 Sean_OBrien wrote:
 Kilkrazy wrote:
One question that hasn't been settled is how big GW is compared to the overall size of the market.

GW themselves once claimed to be 95% of the wargame market. I suspect they are probably more like 20% if you include games liked X-Wing and other such titles.

If 20% of the whole market disappeared overnight, it might not have any significant effect at all, as the people who didn't transfer to other games would be the kind of people who only played GW and were never going to move on.


I had never seen the 95% claim...I don't think they could have ever made that claim with a straight face...ever, never, not ever.

At their largest, they had a large chunk of science fiction - a very large chunk of fantasy (mostly because of LotR miniatures as opposed to WFB) and a respectable portion of historical rules (Warhammer Historical rules were probably some of the best written rules GW ever did). This was on the upswing of the LotR movies and when the internet was still new and shiny for a lot of companies...and a few other companies had done a good job of souring the online store waters (couldn't go a week without hearing of someone else New Wave ripped off). Many of the competitive companies had gone under for various reasons - and it left a void to be filled.

Even then, they had almost nothing in terms of dollars for historical miniatures, and I don't think they went over 50% for either fantasy or science fiction. Local store sales would have been higher - as even back in the day of the SASE, that demographic who wanted something different generally skipped over the hyped and heavily marketed (for miniatures) games that end up showing up on store shelves.


I don't doubt the size of the historicals market. I don't doubt it's buying power. However of the models that are played in FLGS stores historicals might as well not even exist. I think it's fair to assume when we're talking about the market it's the sci-fi/fantasy market. That's the market that the vast majority of our peers are in and that FLGS's carry. In all my years of various sci-fi/fantasy gaming I've only seen historicals played at conventions. Never seen a game played in a store or at a club. Never seen the product on the shelves. And never seen anyone under the age of 40 playing it. Not saying it isn't there, just that it's a completely different portion of the market.

To me it feels like there are 3 wargaming markets. Historical/Modern, Sci-fi/Fantasy, and Pre-Painted's. I never, ever, would have gotten into Historicals. Just wouldn't have happened. Not because I don't like historical periods but because they might as well not exist for younger gamers because they aren't there to be seen on most local levels. Pre-Painted's are huge. I remember how big MechWarrior was and several other clix games. And now games like X-Wing and Attack Wing are huge as well. Sci-fi/Fantasy is still heavily dominated by GW. Mass Battle systems are entirely GW at 28mm with GW being non-existant in any other scale now.


I just wanted to quote the last part due to the reason GW dominates the mass battle 28mm game systems is due to a few factors, first of all being most other companies realize very early on that the cost to set up such a scale requires a huge investment and is usually better to start out smaller first and then grow as a company, however this also gets into my 2nd main reason. 28mm as said many times on this forum before does not work at large scale battle style games. It simply is a bad scale to do it in and cannot be done without a massive store filling table. Even then units are crammed together and mobility is non existent. 28mm is meant more for skirmish games to RPG's doing massive scale battles is really only done by GW and a few others to lesser extent. Game scale should be done to miniature scale and 28mm is a skirmish and RPG style scale and up to a single platoon of men at most. In comparison 40k epic was a great game that worked very well for its scale, and is a much better game than GW's current 40k is and very possibly ever will be due to this key feature alone.

Now if GW does go out of the market place, I can say with a high confidence that wargaming for the long run will be better off, as wargaming will have the chance to become a healthy and diverse market place and will then catch up in popularity to board games and card games. I would like to argue that GW and their games has not in fact been helping grow wargaming but quite the opposite been holding it back and over the last decade been discouraging growth in wargaming by many factors ( including doing everything they can to isolate hobbyists to their game and theirs alone and attacking any FLGS and other companies ( several sculptors too have been attacked by empty threats)). Also just as a market we have seen so many go out and produce GW look alike products instead of trying to create something of their own due to the dominance of GW and catering to that crowd being the only way for them to survive.

I personally look forward to the day wargaming can rid itself of being dominated by one company , one style of setting , scale and theme and open up to such diversity that ones imagination is the only true limit. This will create the competitive market that will cater to gamers so many different tastes , ideas , scales and more that is what will happen in the long run when GW goes, though I do fear if someone else picks up the 40k license and comes back, yes they may be great and do well and good for them, however wargaming will again be stuck in the grim dark future instead of having many different futures and settings.

This is not an attack to those who love to play 40k as more just an encouraging though about what the future could hold for all wargamers if the market gains a more even playing field.

with best regards - Shawn.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/21 01:26:32


Post by: Achaylus72


Everyone is replaceable even GW.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/21 01:44:43


Post by: TheKbob


I have only skimmed the thread, but I'd say if you're invested in the hobby for a supported game, you'd best be considering another front unless we see a real drastic change. The current method is not working.

When you have one of the most prominent distributors of miniatures and nerdy goods in the US dropping GW entirely, after two bad financial statements, after a measurable worse rules set that costs more than any previously, etc. etc., how much more "Here's Your Sign!" type data points do you need?

I'm sure 40k will have legs if/when GW implodes. The real question is who buys the IP and runs with it. If that doesn't happen, then you'll have the die hard crowd dwindle as there will be marginal to zero player growth (who wants to start a dead game?).

I think the market is already shifting away with a multitude of options of various costs so that you could afford to have an Infinity faction, a Malifaux crew or two, and a Bolt Action army in the same space as a previous 40k army. So you play three games instead of one.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/21 01:53:39


Post by: Sean_OBrien


 TheKbob wrote:
I have only skimmed the thread, but I'd say if you're invested in the hobby for a supported game, you'd best be considering another front unless we see a real drastic change. The current method is not working.


I wouldn't say that...not in all cases at least.

Most games live on long after there publisher stops supporting them. My favorite fantasy rule set is still 2nd Ed. Battlesystem, by TSR. Still get a game a month or so of that in. Play a bit of Striker II as well (based on Command Decision ruleset...).

If for some reason, you really like the rules - or the miniatures - or both, there really isn't any reason not to continue playing. Granted, most game stores will drop it from their nightly line up in a heart beat after they can no longer get reliable restocks...so you will need to play at home or else where. They upside is that in the year or 5 following the fall - the miniatures will sell for dirt cheap as people off load their obsolete armies.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/21 02:19:04


Post by: TheKbob


 Sean_OBrien wrote:
 TheKbob wrote:
I have only skimmed the thread, but I'd say if you're invested in the hobby for a supported game, you'd best be considering another front unless we see a real drastic change. The current method is not working.


I wouldn't say that...not in all cases at least.

Most games live on long after there publisher stops supporting them. My favorite fantasy rule set is still 2nd Ed. Battlesystem, by TSR. Still get a game a month or so of that in. Play a bit of Striker II as well (based on Command Decision ruleset...).

If for some reason, you really like the rules - or the miniatures - or both, there really isn't any reason not to continue playing. Granted, most game stores will drop it from their nightly line up in a heart beat after they can no longer get reliable restocks...so you will need to play at home or else where. They upside is that in the year or 5 following the fall - the miniatures will sell for dirt cheap as people off load their obsolete armies.


You're ability to go out and find/play in a community beyond one you're already established in for said game, more so with a very expansive and time consuming buy-in (versus, say an old RPG), is going to be greatly curtailed.

It will lose the new hotness, thus not be carried in any retail and the third party bits market will slowly die around it, too. I can see a lot of third party model makers crumbling without "The 28mm Sci-Fi" game to support, but that again depends on who'd buy the IP and if they'd continue the table top presence.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/21 03:38:03


Post by: Vermis


 Sean_OBrien wrote:

Most games live on long after there publisher stops supporting them. My favorite fantasy rule set is still 2nd Ed. Battlesystem, by TSR. Still get a game a month or so of that in. Play a bit of Striker II as well (based on Command Decision ruleset...).

If for some reason, you really like the rules - or the miniatures - or both, there really isn't any reason not to continue playing. Granted, most game stores will drop it from their nightly line up in a heart beat after they can no longer get reliable restocks...so you will need to play at home or else where. They upside is that in the year or 5 following the fall - the miniatures will sell for dirt cheap as people off load their obsolete armies.


I agree with your general principle, but in this particular case I'm not so sure. In my experience, OOP games tend to get continuing playtime because they're usually pretty good, or inoffensive at least; whereas current 40K is, well, pretty wretched. A (highly) subjective opinion, maybe, but I've seen too many GW fanboys state that they still play because they like the fluff, or sometimes the models, because the local GW store is a convenient place to get a guaranteed pick up game, or even that they've spent too much on 40K to stop spending on 40K. Very few seemed to keep playing because of the game itself.

If GW goes under, no more stores, no more 40K minis, those rationalisations will evaporate like an election manifesto in death valley. I'm sure some would keep playing 40K out of nostalgia, but I think it'd quickly turn to extremely slim pickings when that's all it's got going for it, compared to other OOP games. Without GW's constant dangling of new, overpriced shinies, the ruleset will be judged on it's own merits, and when that happens I'd guess the vast majority of the player base will dump ttgs altogether, or find something better. Moreso than with other 'dead' games.

Personally, I like what Underfire Shawn wrote up there. I don't know if that's how it will or might be, but I appreciate the sentiment. Roll on the GW diaspora. Let's show 'em what a decent wargame is like.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/21 10:56:13


Post by: Osbad


According to the last US gaming survey, GW are the largest wargaming franchise, but it is totally eclipsed by MtG. Boardgames also outsell miniatures games as a sector too. From that I take that fantasy/sci-fi non-video-gaming would carry on just fine if GW went belly-up and disappeared overnight. Even if GW's fans stopped buying anything at all and disappeared with the company.

The one thing that GW does in the UK (although no longer outside the UK from my point of view) is attempt to actively recruit new players via its stores. If GW stores disappeared the UK high street would look very different for gamers. BUT, we have seen the slow, gradual death of high street stores as a means of selling and recruitment for a while now. I would say, purely anecdotally, in the UK many more gamers are recruited by friends who game with the new guys at home, or school, or particularly in the UK in clubs. GW isn't really a key element of that process to anyone other than their die-hard fans. And we all know that every year there are fewer and fewer of those around!

To get back to the OP, I would say that the premise is actually flawed. GW has been dying for some years now and we don't have to wait for some far off future to see what the death of GW would look like, as that time is already upon us. GW's volume of product sold has been in steady decline year on year for 10 years (as shown by simple analysis of their published accounts). While not dead, each year they are closer to that than the last. We are already seeing the impact of what it means for "GW to die". Think back on how the whole market has changed since 2004 - GW rapidly inflating prices while reducing and focusing its product range, other companies growing and finding alternative routes to markets, independent clubs springing up and growing steadily. It seems abundantly clear to me that GW is no longer really a cornerstone of the market. 10 years ago maybe, but now, if they went we'd see a blip, but no shakes. Probably not much worse than when Rackham went boom a few years ago. At least not from an "industry" perspective. Obviously for those addicted fans who love their stuff it would be terrible, but for the rest of us... . meh!

If I was to go out on a limb, I would predict that in the UK, Warlord would take over the slot and buy up what was left of GW on the back of its rapidly expanding Bolt Action franchise. In the US I predict Privateer Press would expand as it became the most popular manufacturer. Just finger in the air stuff, but if I were a betting man, those would be my lead contenders to take over.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/21 14:41:40


Post by: ComTrav


I don't know that these probable competitors could just walk in without any "teething issues".

I like Warmachine a lot, and I like the aesthetics and most of the sculpts, but I've had issues with almost every PP plastic kit I've purchased. I'm not convinced they could ramp up production without exacerbating their QA issues.

Historicals are, of course, a different matter entirely, as its not a proprietary IP, and there are lots and lots of manufacturers making models compatible with a wide variety of games. If, say, Bolt Action becomes the Next Big Thing, there's no shortage of 28 mm historical manufacturers.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/21 15:28:25


Post by: Skinnereal


If GW went down, the rules for 40k will go too.
There'll be no reason to keep using the GW rules, and whoever buys the IP can release their own version.
Or go Pathfinder, with a parallel set of rules.

The games of 40k and WH would continue, as people know the names, but new rules would emerge after a while.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/22 13:00:32


Post by: Art_of_war


If GW went it would hurt for a while but then things would bounce back.

To be honest it might be at that point already. Of course here in the UK there would be many who would quit with the demise of GW, but there lies the inherent problem. The vast majority did start with GW but quite a few have moved on to other games mainly due to the pricing as well as the rules. However there are those who simply refuse to accept that there are other games out there.

That being said i'd argue for PP moving into the GW void as one of the "main" games that people would play. The community seems to be far better and there is none of the "bullshite" that goes with the GW hand luggage (and there is quite a lot...). I would be wary of the historicals taking over, as to many they are a big turn off, GW has been a success due to the setting lets not forget that. Historical games maybe interesting but i still feel there is far too much "obsessing" about accuracy etc with regard to WWII stuff. Even though i understand the viewpoint, its not conductive in my opinion to newcomers.

We can only wait and see really, as some wag once suggested GW's current situation is rather like the imperium in the fluff and that could take years or even a decade or more to play out.



If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/22 15:57:29


Post by: slowthar


I think people are somewhat underestimating the appeal that historicals might have if they were exposed to more younger players. Keep in mind that like 2/3rds of the console first person shooters are set in WW2 these days; it's a setting that's really become more and more mainstream in the past decade.

I personally never would've thought to look into a game like Bolt Action 5 years ago, but now I'm really intrigued.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/22 16:04:49


Post by: MWHistorian


I'd totally go in for some late Roman/Byzantine era historicals, but then I'd probably be playing by myself.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/22 18:14:50


Post by: Eilif


 slowthar wrote:
I think people are somewhat underestimating the appeal that historicals might have if they were exposed to more younger players. Keep in mind that like 2/3rds of the console first person shooters are set in WW2 these days; it's a setting that's really become more and more mainstream in the past decade.

I personally never would've thought to look into a game like Bolt Action 5 years ago, but now I'm really intrigued.


This is a very good point.
When I started in the 90's, historical gaming rarely showed up in most FLGS's. There weren't hardly any games that I can recall that were sold with the shiny rulesets and attractively packaged models that were common for Warhammer, Warzone, Void, etc.

Now days that's all changed. Bolt Action, Hail Caesar, and other historicals are producing rulebooks and model kits with production/presentation values that are every bit as good as the popular fantasy and sci-fi games and with rulesets that are very accessible.

It's never been easier to point a newbie to historical gaming and as you point out, there's alot of interest in historical settings in kinds of gaming.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 MWHistorian wrote:
I'd totally go in for some late Roman/Byzantine era historicals, but then I'd probably be playing by myself.

You would probably have to start by providing both sides, but that's the case for starting out most less-popular games. However, if you can do so, you might be surprised at the folks who would be willing to play with you.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/22 21:51:08


Post by: jonolikespie


So which games do people think would fill the void and become the 'big' games at this point?

Warmachine and Xwing are the obvious top contenders.
Infinity seems to be gaining a lot of ground, especially with their starter set being a 5,000 copy first run and preorders alone doubling that.
Spartan Games seem to be ready to play with the big boys these days.
Mantic are killing it with their Kickstaters and, by all accounts, things are only selling better once the campaign ends and the boxes hit shelves.
Bolt action seems to be getting pretty popluar too.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/22 22:02:16


Post by: TheAuldGrump


I do not believe that GW will be replaced by another 800 pound gorilla - instead we will likely see a couple of five hundred pound gorillas, some pretty beefy chimps, an orangutan or two, and more monkeys than will fit into a barrel.

And I am okay with that, as long as at least one game moves into the gateway position that GW seems to be abandoning.

The Auld Grump


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/22 23:41:01


Post by: MightyGodzilla


MiniatureMarket.com is going to stop carrying GW. Using them as a microcosm I don't think it will be the end of the world. Niche hobby sales will be gobbled up by the runners up. For everything that GW gave us in terms of the "standards" over the years, the consumers will see that this torch will be passed on.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/23 00:19:26


Post by: Platuan4th


 MWHistorian wrote:
I'd totally go in for some late Roman/Byzantine era historicals, but then I'd probably be playing by myself.


I'd play it, but then I'd play pretty much any period of Roman historicals since my 2nd year Latin class in high school was all about learning Roman military history, tactics, and translating things pertaining to such. Incidentally, that's also the year I had the best grade in Latin over 4 years.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/23 03:30:05


Post by: Tanakosyke22


For my point of view, it is kind of hard to say. The hopeful side of me thinks that after Games Workshop goes down the drain, other companies start to fill in the void that Games Workshop has left. No one company will not be as overtly dominant like GW during its heyday, but there might be two-or-three that take the top spot. Seeing the current market as it it, this might be Fantasy Flight a little more on top since they have a strong presence on Living Card Games, Board Games, RPGs and starting to make a little more headway into miniatures now than before. Then followed and probably close by Privateer Press. Corvus Belli and possibly Warlord following close behind. The possibly of that many gamers who used GW for a while leave for not seeing a proper alternative if someone does not pick up the IP and run with it (depending if it was handled properly and much better than it is now).

Again, my two cents on the situation.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/23 06:38:22


Post by: Harriticus


Everyone would benefit, including the fanbase.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/23 14:46:16


Post by: clively


If GW went away there would be a sudden vacuum in the market place.

The direct competitors would start experiencing a large amount of growth, and all of the problems thereof, as wargamers started to switch systems. This switch wouldn't be immediate, as we obviously still have rules and models to use. Further, eBay prices would go up and more well defined alternative rules would appear on various forums. You'd likely even see a few tournaments finishing out the year with GW before switching over completely to other systems.

We've seen this type of thing happen before when other systems disappeared (eg: Battletech). Some people hold on to what they have, others move to different systems, and still others just quit wargaming entirely.

Ultimately the market itself would rebalance. After market companies, and even recasters, would entirely switch over to other lines as a new winner takes charge.

In short, there would be a bit of Chaos but likely after 2 years the problems would have already healed over as people completed their switch. Assuming the fall was due to insolvency then we'd see another company pick up the "Warhammer" brand. It's a crap shoot as to whether they would be successful or not and the brand might change hands a few times before finally landing in someone's hands that knows what they are doing. If there were any legal issues involved regarding the assets (highly likely given their size) then it would easily be 10 years before another company would even start selling the product again.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/23 15:06:18


Post by: MWHistorian


I would love an after market for Warmachine. And despite rumors to the contrary, yes, you can convert Warmachine stuff. ( I will be doing so shortly.)


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/28 16:15:51


Post by: Tycho


For my point of view, it is kind of hard to say. The hopeful side of me thinks that after Games Workshop goes down the drain, other companies start to fill in the void that Games Workshop has left.


The problem with statements like this (and many other statements in this thread) is that they don't fully take into account the fact that there has never been a table-top war game as big as 40k is right now (you mention that there won't be anyone as big as GW in their heyday but even that doesn't quite go far enough to explain the situation). While games like Battletech were popular in their day, I never saw or heard of a single store supporting itself based almost entirely on Battletech sales. Additionally (and again speaking strictly in terms of miniature wargames only), I don't know that the gap between #1 and #2 has ever been this large either.

The stores I shop at or keep in contact with (because I move a lot and keep in touch with old friends) are largely on the east cost of the U.S. and in Ohio. They are all independents (never actually even seen a GW corporate storefront in person). Without exception, their sales strategy is as follows:

A. MtG and other collectable card games are what pays the bills and allows them to have room for games like 40k. 40k in turn sells enough to not be dead weight on the bottom line and keeps people coming back. The other games like warmahordes/drop zone are available but exist largely because the store can afford to take a small hit on them with the money MtG and Gw helps them bring in and it's always good to offer more options.

B. Comic books and other collectibles are what pays the bills and keeps the doors open and the gaming supplies make up a small portion of profits but bring people in and sell enough to justify their existence. As with the top example, MtG is still the money maker by a wide margin over minis

C. It's a game store but they primarily focus on RPGs. They offer table space and regular gaming groups and make more money off of selling the gamers food and soda than they do on the actual games.

So in every case above, GW is the Wargame that's making the money and allowing the others to piggy back off of it. If GW goes, there's no garuantee that gamers will just instantly switch systems. Some will, but many more will just leave completely and others may switch but will need convincing. Meanwhile, while the remaining companies like PP are scrambling to try and get new production up and running for the supposed "increased demand" the game stores I mentioned are busy having fire sales. They would be selling off ALL wargames at very cheap prices and either consolidating their shops into smaller, less expensive places, or dedicating the newly free shelf space to their bigger money makers.

Additionally, it's not been my experience that when a game system goes belly up that it's still easy to play. Gamers move on pretty quick. Just try getting a game of Chronopia, Warzone, Clan Wars, SST or Vor locally. You can't do it and even if you can, your LGS isn't going to help because they aren't making money off of it.

In short, and speaking for my stores only, GW going under would be fairly catastrophic for the wargaming community as a whole. It's already hanging on by a thread and the other minis systems don't bring in enough money to keep the stores from dumping them if there's no 40k bringing people in. I don't see that situation going well for us.

Edited because I used the wrong quote ...


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/28 16:58:30


Post by: Blacksails


If GW goes under than wouldn't that mean that independents would have already seen their GW sales dropping? I mean, its not like its going to happen overnight and everyone is going to wake up shocked about being in a GW-less world.

If GW goes under than it would most certainly mean that most of their customers have either already dropped wargaming altogether, or have switched games already.

I'd be very doubtful of a game store riding predominantly on GW sales until the bitter end. There might be a handful of stores that'd be ruined, but part of you wonders what they were doing relying entirely on a single product line in the first place.

No, I don't think losing GW would have any sort of lasting dramatic consequences on wargaming at large.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/28 17:07:05


Post by: Tycho


I'd be very doubtful of a game store riding predominantly on GW sales until the bitter end. There might be a handful of stores that'd be ruined, but part of you wonders what they were doing relying entirely on a single product line in the first place.


You're right, they wouldn't ride it out to the bitter end. The point (in my case) still stands though. No one is going to fill that void and be the moneymaker/traffic generator GW was so even in the case that it's a long slow decline, the LGS I mention are still going to sell off what's left and consolidate. It would largely signal the end of Wargamming in the area.

Plus, many companies DO go out of business "overnite" as it were. FASA didn't exactly give a ton of notice to our local stores for example. A bunch of us had just bought in to Crucible (a wargame FASA published maybe 6 months before they called it quits) and were in the process of putting together a large order when our shop's distributor told us the news (he wasn't suppose to tell anyone for another few weeks but didn't want the store to be mad at him for letting us order a ton of stuff from them). GW would likely do it in a similar manner. "Nothing is wrong, everything is fine despite reports to the contrary" is what you would hear on Monday and "We're done" is what you would hear on Tuesday. AFTER you've placed your final large order.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/28 17:08:28


Post by: frozenwastes


I don't think GW is providing the majority of revenue for very many stores out there. I also suspect that even the stores where GW stuff outsells other wargames, the margins through their distributors are better than what GW offers and if the store ever started having issues with GW, they'll have loads of choices to replace them with that would get them that little bit extra margin through a normal distributor that would make it worth their while.

What I've been seeing here over the last five years is what it looks like when GW fades away as the top wargame. The answer is healthier stores where a 2-5% increase in margin makes a huge difference in terms of long term viability.

The previously GW gaming communities tend to fragment into multiple different games, but what does the store care? They're all available from the same distributor and can be special ordered with ease while a tiny amount is all that is needed to be kept in stock for new players (or people making a second army).

It also takes effort to promote a game and I think many store owners will find that the same effort spent on alternatives to GW (especially MTG) will yield more rewards for the same effort. Local stores here have had great success replacing their Warhammer Fantasy night with board game night. Better margins, easy to sell people new games, easy to build a community.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/28 17:15:26


Post by: Tanakosyke22


Tycho wrote:
For my point of view, it is kind of hard to say. The hopeful side of me thinks that after Games Workshop goes down the drain, other companies start to fill in the void that Games Workshop has left.


The problem with statements like this (and many other statements in this thread) is that they don't fully take into account the fact that there has never been a table-top war game as big as 40k is right now (you mention that there won't be anyone as big as GW in their heyday but even that doesn't quite go far enough to explain the situation). While games like Battletech were popular in their day, I never saw or heard of a single store supporting itself based almost entirely on Battletech sales. Additionally (and again speaking strictly in terms of miniature wargames only), I don't know that the gap between #1 and #2 has ever been this large either.

The stores I shop at or keep in contact with (because I move a lot and keep in touch with old friends) are largely on the east cost of the U.S. and in Ohio. They are all independents (never actually even seen a GW corporate storefront in person). Without exception, their sales strategy is as follows:

A. MtG and other collectable card games are what pays the bills and allows them to have room for games like 40k. 40k in turn sells enough to not be dead weight on the bottom line and keeps people coming back. The other games like warmahordes/drop zone are available but exist largely because the store can afford to take a small hit on them with the money MtG and Gw helps them bring in and it's always good to offer more options.

B. Comic books and other collectibles are what pays the bills and keeps the doors open and the gaming supplies make up a small portion of profits but bring people in and sell enough to justify their existence. As with the top example, MtG is still the money maker by a wide margin over minis

C. It's a game store but they primarily focus on RPGs. They offer table space and regular gaming groups and make more money off of selling the gamers food and soda than they do on the actual games.

So in every case above, GW is the Wargame that's making the money and allowing the others to piggy back off of it. If GW goes, there's no garuantee that gamers will just instantly switch systems. Some will, but many more will just leave completely and others may switch but will need convincing. Meanwhile, while the remaining companies like PP are scrambling to try and get new production up and running for the supposed "increased demand" the game stores I mentioned are busy having fire sales. They would be selling off ALL wargames at very cheap prices and either consolidating their shops into smaller, less expensive places, or dedicating the newly free shelf space to their bigger money makers.

Additionally, it's not been my experience that when a game system goes belly up that it's still easy to play. Gamers move on pretty quick. Just try getting a game of Chronopia, Warzone, Clan Wars, SST or Vor locally. You can't do it and even if you can, your LGS isn't going to help because they aren't making money off of it.

In short, and speaking for my stores only, GW going under would be fairly catastrophic for the wargaming community as a whole. It's already hanging on by a thread and the other minis systems don't bring in enough money to keep the stores from dumping them if there's no 40k bringing people in. I don't see that situation going well for us.

Edited because I used the wrong quote ...


In some parts, I kind of do agree. PP needs to get their act together (granted I love their game and products, but they are still kind of small time) before doing anything major. But Games Workshop is, on a whole, not doing so hot and starting to not meet the demands almost looking at the global trend. That is why I put Fantasy Flight as first since it is a company that would be able to capitalize on it and expand.

As Blacksails has noted, I think it is not going to be something that happens overnight. It is something that is going to possibly happen over the long run and more than likely, a global shift to other games that are non-GW. If that happens, then the gaming community has essentially lessened the effect of GW going belly-up.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/28 17:16:29


Post by: Tycho


I don't think GW is providing the majority of revenue for very many stores out there.


If you read what I wrote you would see that I said MtG/"other" is providing most of the gross revenue. GW is generally the only MINIS game making a profit (again in my area).

The previously GW gaming communities tend to fragment into multiple different games, but what does the store care? They're all available from the same distributor and can be special ordered with ease while a tiny amount is all that is needed to be kept in stock for new players (or people making a second army).

It also takes effort to promote a game and I think many store owners will find that the same effort spent on alternatives to GW (especially MTG) will yield more rewards for the same effort. Local stores here have had great success replacing their Warhammer Fantasy night with board game night. Better margins, easy to sell people new games, easy to build a community.


It's very easy to get someone to pick up MtG or a board game. Yes. That's the point. Other wargames are a much harder sell. There are plenty of really good minis games that allow good play and have quality miniatures at better prices but they aren't selling right now and I don't expect that to change just because GW goes under. Most of the 40K players I know are 40k players. NOT wargamers in general. That's exactly why what I said is probably what will happen in these stores. The other games like Warmahordes are likely just not going to generate enough income fast enough for the stores to justify carrying them so that shelf space now becomes CCGs, board games, etc.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/28 17:17:59


Post by: ejazzyjeff



Like what Tycho mentioned, my local game stores relies heavily on Magic and other card games to pay the bills. I never knew how popular card games are until I went there. Those who do play WHF40K are the old school (older individuals).



If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/28 17:22:33


Post by: Blacksails


Tycho wrote:


You're right, they wouldn't ride it out to the bitter end. The point (in my case) still stands though. No one is going to fill that void and be the moneymaker/traffic generator GW was so even in the case that it's a long slow decline, the LGS I mention are still going to sell off what's left and consolidate. It would largely signal the end of Wargamming in the area.


How do you know that? No singular company may fill the void of GW, but why does it matter if one or a dozen companies grow, expand, or apparate to fill the gap? While a handful of small areas might be hit hard with the loss of GW, wargaming as a whole would carry on, likely for the better in the time following. Gaming still exists outside of a dedicated store, and while its gakky losing a store, I have to wonder about the business model of the store that is dependent on a single product line.

Plus, many companies DO go out of business "overnite" as it were. FASA didn't exactly give a ton of notice to our local stores for example. A bunch of us had just bought in to Crucible (a wargame FASA published maybe 6 months before they called it quits) and were in the process of putting together a large order when our shop's distributor told us the news (he wasn't suppose to tell anyone for another few weeks but didn't want the store to be mad at him for letting us order a ton of stuff from them). GW would likely do it in a similar manner. "Nothing is wrong, everything is fine despite reports to the contrary" is what you would hear on Monday and "We're done" is what you would hear on Tuesday. AFTER you've placed your final large order.


There have been dozens of competitors for GW for years now. The writing is on the walls for a lot of people, and really, this financial report will show us if last years was a blip or the start of the descent. I'd be a little shocked to hear about a decent game store not stocking other games, like Infinity, WM/H or Dystopian Wars, not to mention board games, RPGs, and card games. If a store does indeed go belly up because they're shocked to learn to GW goes under, I have to question their business decisions.

GW may be the largest wargaming company currently, but if the trends keep up the way they are, it'll be a fairly smooth transition away from the monolith mentality and into a market with a dozen smaller companies offering a wider range of products.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/28 17:23:42


Post by: Tycho


Like what Tycho mentioned, my local game stores relies heavily on Magic and other card games to pay the bills. I never knew how popular card games are until I went there. Those who do play WHF40K are the old school (older individuals).


Exactly. And in most cases the shop owner is going to look at that dedicated wargaming space and say "I could put time into promoting a different wargame (likely one that's already been in the shop for a while and is barely breaking even), and hopefully start making money on that space again in six months to a year, or I could consolidate to a smaller store or convert that space to something fo rone of my CCGs and make money IMMEDIATELY."

Considering the shoe string budget most LGSs run on, I don't see many stores taking the chance ...


How do you know that? No singular company may fill the void of GW, but why does it matter if one or a dozen companies grow, expand, or apparate to fill the gap? While a handful of small areas might be hit hard with the loss of GW, wargaming as a whole would carry on, likely for the better in the time following. Gaming still exists outside of a dedicated store, and while its gakky losing a store, I have to wonder about the business model of the store that is dependent on a single product line.


Because where I live GW going under WOULD end the community. Too many people live too far away from each other to game at someone's house. The Stores are where people can get together thanks to public transportation. I feel like you're either not understanding what I'm saying, or you're deliberately avoiding my actual point. I have said in every post that NO STORE relies on GW for its profits. I've also not one time said the LGS would go out of business. I said the would simply stop catering to such a small portion of the business and switch that space to something else.

I'd be a little shocked to hear about a decent game store not stocking other games, like Infinity, WM/H or Dystopian Wars, not to mention board games, RPGs, and card games. If a store does indeed go belly up because they're shocked to learn to GW goes under, I have to question their business decisions.


Again, I've not even implied that this is the case ...I'm not sure how much more clear I can make it, but no, not one store would go under because of GW going away. It's just that we as a local community would lose store support which would then, kill the community.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/28 17:33:29


Post by: frozenwastes


The good independent stores leverage their customers as volunteers to organize play for the games they are interested in, stock a minimum amount and then do special orders as the community grows.

Stocking a line of miniatures and hoping to make money six months later is a pretty poor way to approach the problem of falling GW sales. You build these alternative games customer bases organically. The GW model of telling a store to fill a whole wall with thousands and thousands worth of their product is in GW's best interests, not the retailers and when the retailers realize that, there's no reason to repeat the mistake with another miniatures game.

If you've got good distributors and good communication with your customers, you can sell 20 different alternative miniatures games, stock a small amount of only some of them and do great sales through special orders.

Why? They'll all be available through a distributor or two. You just add the stuff to an order you're making anyway because you're ordering Magic cards.

This idea that GW sales somehow make it possible for the store to be willing to try stocking other games is ludicrous. They're not "taking a hit" on them unless they don't sell and then they're no different than the hundreds or thousands of GW stock that isn't selling. Well, except they probably got a better trade discount through their distributor than GW gives, so there's less capital tied up.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/28 17:36:49


Post by: Blacksails


Tycho wrote:

Because where I live GW going under WOULD end the community. Too many people live too far away from each other to game at someone's house. The Stores are where people can get together thanks to public transportation. I feel like you're either not understanding what I'm saying, or you're deliberately avoiding my actual point. I have said in every post that NO STORE relies on GW for its profits. I've also not one time said the LGS would go out of business. I said the would simply stop catering to such a small portion of the business and switch that space to something else.

Again, I've not even implied that this is the case ...I'm not sure how much more clear I can make it, but no, not one store would go under because of GW going away. It's just that we as a local community would lose store support which would then, kill the community.


Okay, so you'd lose your community.

The thread is about how other companies would be affected, and I suppose, wargaming at large by extension.

Then again, if the store in question still stocks any sort of miniature games, why would you suddenly be unable to play 40k with the models and books you have? Or perhaps trying another game?

It sounds like you have a specific problem in that your wargaming life revolves entirely around GW.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/28 17:43:18


Post by: Tycho


The good independent stores leverage their customers as volunteers to organize play for the games they are interested in, stock a minimum amount and then do special orders as the community grows.

Stocking a line of miniatures and hoping to make money six months later is a pretty poor way to approach the problem of falling GW sales. You build these alternative games customer bases organically. The GW model of telling a store to fill a whole wall with thousands and thousands worth of their product is in GW's best interests, not the retailers and when the retailers realize that, there's no reason to repeat the mistake with another miniatures game.

If you've got good distributors and good communication with your customers, you can sell 20 different alternative miniatures games, stock a small amount of only some of them and do great sales through special orders.

Why? They'll all be available through a distributor or two. You just add the stuff to an order you're making anyway because you're ordering Magic cards.

This idea that GW sales somehow make it possible for the store to be willing to try stocking other games is ludicrous. They're not "taking a hit" on them unless they don't sell and then they're no different than the hundreds or thousands of GW stock that isn't selling. Well, except they probably got a better trade discount through their distributor than GW gives, so there's less capital tied up.


Sarcasm on\

Right, so again, as I mentioned, several times ...

While the stores DO stock and actively promote other games, GW is their big seller (when it comes to wargames). I realize that everyone else lives in a gaming utopia where every group plays every alternative game just as much as they play GW stuff and that the sky is falling because GW is >insert insult of the week here<, but that's just not the case with my stores.

/sarcasm


Really, it's great that you guys have communities that play other games to the point that you can switch systems easily. Point is, the stores I frequent don't have that (and it's not for lack of trying - believe me). Like I said, I think many 40k players are just that - 40k players. They don't have as much interest in wargamming in general. Regardless of what the internet would have you believe, it's not as easy to get someone to pick up a new game to the point that a store will give up valuable real estate to support it. Sadly.



Okay, so you'd lose your community.

The thread is about how other companies would be affected, and I suppose, wargaming at large by extension.

Then again, if the store in question still stocks any sort of miniature games, why would you suddenly be unable to play 40k with the models and books you have? Or perhaps trying another game?

It sounds like you have a specific problem in that your wargaming life revolves entirely around GW.


Right, but I think that's more common (especially in the U.S.) than people realize. I actually think that GW going under WOULD have a long term negative effect. Not one as catastrophic as the effect would be locally, but still negative long term. You can't compare this industry to other "mainstream" industries where if one widget maker fails, there's a million more widget makers ready willing and able to fill the void seamlessly.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/28 17:49:11


Post by: frozenwastes


We're in different countries. Here in Canada retailers of GW products need to compete, at full Canadian MSRP with US based online sellers of GW at US MSRP + a discount.

If I want to I can get GW stuff at just over what the local store pays for it at their trade discount. It's a bit better for local stores since the US dollar strengthened over the last year, but we're still talking the equivalent of a 30-40% discount. Or, if I want to buy non-GW stuff locally I can just pay the honest exchange rate because GW can't dictate the price of non-GW products (obviously).

So stores here are working at a price disadvantage on their GW stuff.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Tycho wrote:
You can't compare this industry to other "mainstream" industries where if one widget maker fails, there's a million more widget makers ready willing and able to fill the void seamlessly.


Yes you can. GW is not special.

We're still talking retail here. If someone comes into the shop and they want some miniature wargaming related, the staffer can recommend products, put the product in their hand, guide them to the till and close the sale. You can still have gaming space available, make special orders, promote products, etc.,. And that's not even counting how smaller miniature companies are doing great things using the internet to promote their games. Infinity 3rd Edition Week on Beasts of War has caused a massive boost in Infinity special orders at two local stores, for example.

There are communities across the world that used to have thriving GW communities and multiple stores selling GW products. They've faded. We've seen first hand what it looks like when GW goes from dominant to irrelevant in a local area.

And it'll be okay. Better even. To the point that you sarcastically described us as living in a "gaming utopia."




If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/28 17:58:24


Post by: Blacksails


Tycho wrote:

Right, but I think that's more common (especially in the U.S.) than people realize. I actually think that GW going under WOULD have a long term negative effect. Not one as catastrophic as the effect would be locally, but still negative long term. You can't compare this industry to other "mainstream" industries where if one widget maker fails, there's a million more widget makers ready willing and able to fill the void seamlessly.


Why can't you compare this industry to others? What makes miniature wargaming so special we can't compare other luxury markets dominated by one or two large players?

I have seen no argument or reason to believe GW's demise would negatively impact the hobby at large. We've seen the market grow the past few years while GW's revenue has either dropped, or remained flat despite price increases. This means other companies are picking up the slack GW is handing them. The market is already filling the void GW is leaving behind. In fact, part of the success of games like Infinity or Firestorm Armada can be attributed to GW cutting product lines and those companies siezing the opportunity.

Given that, why is there any reason to believe other companies wouldn't be able to step up and fill the gap of a 28mm sci-fi company level game? The fantasy version already has a competitor, so its not like the market isn't ready on that front.

I don't think it'd be common at all. If people still want to play 40k, they could still go to the local store and play. If they play other games, they'd happily carry on doing just that. Really, the hardest hit would be people who exclusively play at GW stores, but given the general size of them, number of staff members, and restriction on the games you can play and how you can play them, I don't feel like that percentage of gamers makes up any sizeable amount.

No, the hobby will carry on just fine. Its already doing just that while GW stagnates. Its showing an ability to grow, adapt, and provide new experiences consumers want. There's no reason to conclude otherwise.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/28 18:03:22


Post by: Tycho


We're in different countries.


Which is why my points were more or less aimed (as I said) at the regional part of the U.S. I happen to be living in. I didn't say anythign about the Canadian market. Look at the OP's last line:

I wonder if the entire market would shrink in the longer run for the lack of a major recruiting point.


My point is that yes, I believe that it would indeed shrink. Just like how not everyone is currently seeing the "downturn" in GW sales, not every place would feel the shrink the same either, but I believe that, over-all, the market would get smaller.

We're still talking retail here. If someone comes into the shop and they want some miniature wargaming related, the staffer can recommend products, put the product in their hand, guide them to the till and close the sale.


And honestly, when was the last time you saw someone walk into a shop and say "I'm looking for something miniature wargame related?". My guess is never. While you can see that sort of thing happen all the time in other places. "I'm looking for a DVD player", "I need a washing machine", etc etc. Wargames is a niche part of an already niche market. Like it or not, the only player even close to being "mainstream" right now is GW. When your a bit player (or even larger than a bit player but still not #1) in a niche market and the name brand that was bringing people in goes under, things can get tough.

Yes, PP may get some additional interest, yes, Infinity may get a few more eyes on it, but in the long run, you're not likely to see a big enough shift that the gaming community at large will remain the same size it is now. I think it would get smaller. That could be good, it could be bad, but I think that's what would happen. An over-all contraction.

I have seen no argument or reason to believe GW's demise would negatively impact the hobby at large. We've seen the market grow the past few years while GW's revenue has either dropped, or remained flat despite price increases. This means other companies are picking up the slack GW is handing them. The market is already filling the void GW is leaving behind. In fact, part of the success of games like Infinity or Firestorm Armada can be attributed to GW cutting product lines and those companies siezing the opportunity.


But we HAVEN'T seen the market "grow". The market has remained stable. We've simply seen more people taking a bite from the same size pie. There's more choices now, but really, the miniatures wargaming market is not a "growth" industry. lol A lot of times, you can have the smaller guys running around and "looking" more sucessful than they are because demand for their product is low. There's just enough demand that they can make money, but not so much demand that they have trouble meeting production quotas. That describes probably nearly all of GW's supposed "competition" (with the possible exception of someone like Privateer).

The problem is that you're assuming that people will instantly just jump to the next game system. That's not necessarily the case. And even if they do, these places will have to time the market perfectly in order to scale up production to meet the increased demand without too much of a delay. That's a lot of "ifs" that need to go down almost perfectly and I just don't see it happening. I think the more likely scenario is that gaming becomes a little more "regional" thing. If that makes sense. I don't see wragaming surviving very well in my area if GW bites it, but in areas where other systems are already well established you could have hold outs. I think though, that the industry needs a large "boilerplate" type name to help drive continued "new" sales and I don't know that in the current era, anyone will be able to do that effectively.


This time edited because typos ... SO MANY TYPOS lol


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/28 19:13:48


Post by: Blacksails


Tycho wrote:

But we HAVEN'T seen the market "grow". The market has remained stable. We've simply seen more people taking a bite from the same size pie.


I'm going to strongly disagree.

By all means, claim the market has remained stable, but please provide sources indicating as such.

Plus, this is also not including any data about things like FFG's massive grownt, PP's growth, Spartan's growth, or Corvus Belli's growth.

There's more choices now, but really, the miniatures wargaming market is not a "growth" industry. lol A lot of times, you can have the smaller guys running around and "looking" more sucessful than they are because demand for their product is low. There's just enough demand that they can make money, but not so much demand that they have trouble meeting production quotas. That describes probably nearly all of GW's supposed "competition" (with the possible exception of someone like Privateer).


Claim its not a growth industry all you like, but everything is pointing in the opposite direction. Seems like there's plenty of demand to make money. As far I know, most of these companies are in fact having trouble keeping up with demand. One of the largest distributors in Australia reported Dystopian Wars outsold 40k 7th 7:1. Please, enlighten us further on the state of the market though. Sources would be nice, or even a hint of one.

The problem is that you're assuming that people will instantly just jump to the next game system. That's not necessarily the case. And even if they do, these places will have to time the market perfectly in order to scale up production to meet the increased demand without too much of a delay. That's a lot of "ifs" that need to go down almost perfectly and I just don't see it happening. I think the more likely scenario is that gaming becomes a little more "regional" thing. If that makes sense. I don't see wragaming surviving very well in my area if GW bites it, but in areas where other systems are already well established you could have hold outs. I think though, that the industry needs a large "boilerplate" type name to help drive continued "new" sales and I don't know that in the current era, anyone will be able to do that effectively.


I'm not making that assumption. I thought I already stated that should GW go under, it would be precisely because people have either left wargaming entirely, or moved their money to other sources within the industry. I thought it was clear that this would mean it wouldn't be instant, but a gradual shift. Oddly enough, one we're seeing now.

There will certainly be growing pains; some of them are experiencing them now with new releases, like Spartan and Corvus Belli with their new editions of their flagship games.

In the age of the internet, I don't think there needs to be a single company as large or dominant as GW to survive.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/28 19:53:07


Post by: Tycho


Plus, this is also not including any data about things like FFG's massive grownt, PP's growth, Spartan's growth, or Corvus Belli's growth.


It's also a quote that's lumped multiple games together and has a somewhat vague breakdown. Is 40K a collectable game, a dice game, or a miniatures game by their standards? Would you consider the various "clicks" games to be wargames in the same vein as 40k or Warmahordes? Really, I never said "gaming in general" is not a growth industry. I said miniature wargames. Games like Infinity, 40k etc. Your article doesn't really break that down or address that. I'll dig up one of my own later (it's a PITA to manage the links from my phone).



I'm not making that assumption. I thought I already stated that should GW go under, it would be precisely because people have either left wargaming entirely, or moved their money to other sources within the industry. I thought it was clear that this would mean it wouldn't be instant, but a gradual shift. Oddly enough, one we're seeing now.


And I've said *literally* the exact same thing. I'm just hedging my bets in the direction of more people leaving all together than on switching. Like I said, I don't think GW going under would "end" the industry. I just think that over-all it will cause a contraction.

One of the largest distributors in Australia reported Dystopian Wars outsold 40k 7th 7:1. Please, enlighten us further on the state of the market though. Sources would be nice, or even a hint of one.

In the age of the internet, I don't think there needs to be a single company as large or dominant as GW to survive.


So in a country where GW's artificial mark-up is borderline criminal, another game outsold it? Color me shocked. lol
Really though, both the quote about the Aussies as well as your quote about the internet are exactly what I'm talking about. Yeah, our segment if the industry will survive (as I've said repeatedly), but I think it will start to become a more localized kind of thing. Sure, in the age of the internet it gets easy to get whatever games and game supplies you want and you can even sometimes use it to find players. That's not the case in a lot of places though. There are a great deal of communities that absolutely depend on the LGS in order for those communities to exist. In too many places, once that avenue is gone (in this case because the store no longer supports the games), the community is gone. That's why I think it would cause an over-all contraction.



If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/28 21:51:50


Post by: Blacksails


Tycho wrote:


It's also a quote that's lumped multiple games together and has a somewhat vague breakdown. Is 40K a collectable game, a dice game, or a miniatures game by their standards? Would you consider the various "clicks" games to be wargames in the same vein as 40k or Warmahordes? Really, I never said "gaming in general" is not a growth industry. I said miniature wargames. Games like Infinity, 40k etc. Your article doesn't really break that down or address that. I'll dig up one of my own later (it's a PITA to manage the links from my phone).


I await your study indicating wargames aren't growing.


And I've said *literally* the exact same thing. I'm just hedging my bets in the direction of more people leaving all together than on switching. Like I said, I don't think GW going under would "end" the industry. I just think that over-all it will cause a contraction.


It may temporarily cause a contraction, but I don't think it would be permanent. I see no reason rapidly growing games like Infinity or the Spartan selections couldn't easily grow to be more than what GW currently is. Between better costs, better advertisements/marketing, and general business acumen, I think a lot of smaller companies are poised to eat up any market share left by GW and then some.

I just don't see GW contributing to a whole lot in today's wargaming market. Especially outside of the UK. Then again, North Americans and Aussie/NZ tend to rely more on FLGS than GW stores, which naturally means there'll be easier and more diversity of games among those stores.

So in a country where GW's artificial mark-up is borderline criminal, another game outsold it? Color me shocked. lol
Really though, both the quote about the Aussies as well as your quote about the internet are exactly what I'm talking about. Yeah, our segment if the industry will survive (as I've said repeatedly), but I think it will start to become a more localized kind of thing. Sure, in the age of the internet it gets easy to get whatever games and game supplies you want and you can even sometimes use it to find players. That's not the case in a lot of places though. There are a great deal of communities that absolutely depend on the LGS in order for those communities to exist. In too many places, once that avenue is gone (in this case because the store no longer supports the games), the community is gone. That's why I think it would cause an over-all contraction.



I don't get what you're saying about becoming localized, or regional.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/28 22:20:49


Post by: agnosto


Tycho wrote:


It's also a quote that's lumped multiple games together and has a somewhat vague breakdown. Is 40K a collectable game, a dice game, or a miniatures game by their standards? Would you consider the various "clicks" games to be wargames in the same vein as 40k or Warmahordes? Really, I never said "gaming in general" is not a growth industry. I said miniature wargames. Games like Infinity, 40k etc. Your article doesn't really break that down or address that. I'll dig up one of my own later (it's a PITA to manage the links from my phone).


ICV2 considers GW products a "Non-Collectible Miniature Line" .

As of 10/22, they look like this:
Top 5 Non-Collectible Miniature Lines – Summer 2014
1 Warhammer 40k

2 Star Wars X-Wing

3 Warmachine

4 Star Trek Attack Wing

5 Hordes


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/28 22:22:00


Post by: Deadnight


 Blacksails wrote:

It may temporarily cause a contraction, but I don't think it would be permanent. I see no reason rapidly growing games like Infinity or the Spartan selections couldn't easily grow to be more than what GW currently is. Between better costs, better advertisements/marketing, and general business acumen, I think a lot of smaller companies are poised to eat up any market share left by GW and then some.

I just don't see GW contributing to a whole lot in today's wargaming market. Especially outside of the UK. Then again, North Americans and Aussie/NZ tend to rely more on FLGS than GW stores, which naturally means there'll be easier and more diversity of games among those stores.
l.


I think tycho has made some valid points. I think we too easily dismiss gw, for all it's faults and massive problems. And yes, I'm one of those that is very much less than impressed with their recent performance and see severe trouble ahead as a distinct possibility.

On the topic at hand though, To be fair, scale is a thing.

infinity is produced by a small company. Iirc they have sonething like twenty or thirty employees (and I think that includes freelance). Gw has something less that two thousand. Being cynical for a moment, one could argue Massive growth for the former arguably translates as a drop in the ocean for the latter.

And to be fair, I see cb's, pp's, wyrd etc growth (impressive as it is) less as a growth in the player base and more the same people branching out and playing multiple games. Here, the infinity player base is pretty much a subset of the warmachine players for example. Infinity seems to be a lot of peoples 'bit on the side', as opposed to a main game. And the warmachine community is smaller than that of gw. Probably by quite a bit.

Sometimes I think being outside the gw bubble gives us slightly skewed perspective relative to our own importance as 'non gw players'. For the record, I see historicals as the largest section of wargames, they tend to be Rather nonplussed at our antics.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/28 22:35:53


Post by: Blacksails


Tycho has made some good points, I just don't agree entirely with the details.

We're largely in agreement about the broadest picture of the future. I don't dispute that.

GW is far and away the largest, I just don't think that losing them will have any sort of permanent or far reaching impact. I imagine many of the employees could easily be picked up by the dozens of smaller outfits, ranging from game plublishers to boutique model companies. Hell, some might start their own company, something ex-GW employees have been quite good at.

While I doubt any one company can absorb the void left by GW in all ways, I suspect 25 smaller companies of varying sizes could do it without too much struggle. We're already seeing it happen.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/29 00:03:54


Post by: agnosto


Miniature wargaming existed long before GW and it will continue long after GW fades away. They're currently top dog but when they eventually close their doors, another company will take their place.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/29 00:10:56


Post by: Ensis Ferrae


I'm of the opinion that the initial months will see a downward turn for a number of companies and stores.

Those that survived will come out stronger than ever. Most of the FLGSs I've been to over the last year or two are significantly shifting away from GW as it is, almost universally as a result of their customer base moving to games like FoW, WM/H, Infinity and the like.

I think that my most local FLGS would come out much better almost right off the bat, as they could finally get rid of all the deadweight GW stuff, which leaves more room for their historicals/DBA stuff, as well as RPG stuff (books/Reaper minis, etc), FoW and Warmachine/Hordes. As it is right now, the trickle of GW sales are such that the owner has to keep it in stock, but it really does just sit forever and ever.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/29 08:04:14


Post by: frozenwastes


Basically the slower GW's decline is, the easier it is for companies to capture the lost market share and transition from a single company that used to dominate the market (GW during the late 90s and early 00s) to a market with many smaller participants.

Every price hike on a new product opens up profitable pricing levels for the competition who don't have GW's economies of scale. Every bad rules release is an opportunity for a game-play centred company to get some more ground. Every shunning of the internet is another opportunity for the social media savvy to get people interested in a new game.

A sudden collapse of GW would result in a scramble. I don't think any currently profitable miniature company who makes their own line would suddenly no longer be profitable, but I don't think the market as a whole would transition as nicely in such a scramble for GW's existing customer base/market share.




If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/29 08:44:38


Post by: Jehan-reznor


I see Fantasy flight pick up the slack, X-wing and attack wing starter sets are perfect for the the kids that walk in the store, it appeals to the nerdy dad to give to their kids. Star Wars Armada will probably appeal to the more mature gamer. I wonder if they would come out with a battlestar galactica or Babylon 5 variant of X/Attack wing


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/29 09:17:40


Post by: Herzlos


 slowthar wrote:
I think people are somewhat underestimating the appeal that historicals might have if they were exposed to more younger players. Keep in mind that like 2/3rds of the console first person shooters are set in WW2 these days; it's a setting that's really become more and more mainstream in the past decade.

I personally never would've thought to look into a game like Bolt Action 5 years ago, but now I'm really intrigued.


You should give it a go - it's awesome. And you can get a fully usable army including rules for the cost of the GW battleforce.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/29 20:46:03


Post by: Kilkrazy


To put Historicals in price perspective, you can get two complete 15mm DBA armies and the rules for the cost of the new mini-rulebook for 40K, a codex and a dataslate.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/29 21:59:13


Post by: Wayniac


 Kilkrazy wrote:
To put Historicals in price perspective, you can get two complete 15mm DBA armies and the rules for the cost of the new mini-rulebook for 40K, a codex and a dataslate.


Blah blah blah that's not 28mm blah blah or grimdark blah or sci-fi blah blah GW is better quality blah blah 15mm figures look like gak blah blah I'm not interested in historicals blah blah

I think that covered all the usual counter-arguments


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/29 22:55:11


Post by: underfire wargaming


 Kilkrazy wrote:
To put Historicals in price perspective, you can get two complete 15mm DBA armies and the rules for the cost of the new mini-rulebook for 40K, a codex and a dataslate.


DBA is quite an fantastic game and a great example of a game, SAGA for 28mm players is also a very good game comparison as well. In the end the only companies that will be affected in any real negative way will be those who copy 40k miniatures and refuse to move forward and create their own unique IP.


If GW went down, how would other companies be affected? @ 2014/10/30 21:11:58


Post by: Shadow Captain Edithae


WayneTheGame wrote:
 Kilkrazy wrote:
To put Historicals in price perspective, you can get two complete 15mm DBA armies and the rules for the cost of the new mini-rulebook for 40K, a codex and a dataslate.


Blah blah blah that's not 28mm blah blah or grimdark blah or sci-fi blah blah GW is better quality blah blah 15mm figures look like gak blah blah I'm not interested in historicals blah blah

I think that covered all the usual counter-arguments


Funnily enough GW has made 15mm and historical models at various times in the past.