Switch Theme:

Share on facebook Share on Twitter Submit to Reddit  [RSS] 

GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 12:29:48


Post by: WarOne


Pretty much, they lost some more off their profit margin and stocks are taking a bit of a hit due to it.

At the rate of this fall, the stock price might go under it's 2014 low set in FebruaryMarch of this year.

http://www.lse.co.uk/AllNews.asp?code=jcj9xozw&headline=Games_Workshop_Shares_Down_As_It_Warns_On_Sterling_Hit_To_Profits

LONDON (Alliance News) - Games Workshop Group PLC saw its shares fall Monday after it said it now expects its operating profit for the first half to be slightly lower than last year, hit by the strong pound.

Shares in the maker of miniature figures and gaming sets were down 6.7% Monday morning at 506.99 pence, after it said that while trading in the six months to end-November has been "broadly in line" with its expectations when reported at constant currency, its taking a sterling hit at actual rates.

"The company has been exposed to the continuing strength of sterling, particularly against the US dollar and euro in the period reported," the company said.

Games Workshop said that it now expects to report a first-half operating profit GBP1 million lower than the prior year, when reported at actual rates. For the first-half of last year it generated an operating profit of GBP11 million.

The company said it will releases its half-year results on January 14, 2015.


http://investor.games-workshop.com/2014/12/08/trading-statement/#more-%27

Games Workshop Group PLC announces that trading in the six months to 30 November 2014 at constant currency has been broadly in line with the Board’s expectations and 2013/14 first half performance.

The Company has been exposed to the continuing strength of sterling, particularly against the US dollar and euro in the period reported. The adverse impact in the six months to 30 November 2014 will result in operating profit at actual rates being approximately £1 million lower than 2013/14 first half performance.

The Company’s half yearly report for the six months to 30 November 2014 will be released on 14 January 2015.




GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 12:54:10


Post by: jonolikespie


Well that's... interesting.

This report will be VERY interesting.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 12:57:11


Post by: Las


Can economics folks explain this a little more for us laymen? Is it a result of declining profits or does it have to do with the strength of currency?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 12:59:34


Post by: Lockark


I'm looking foreword to see who is passive aggressively attacked in the next report.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 13:02:17


Post by: Bartali


 WarOne wrote:
Pretty much, they lost some more off their profit margin and stocks are taking a bit of a hit due to it.

At the rate of this fall, the stock price might go under it's 2014 low set in FebruaryMarch of this year.

http://www.lse.co.uk/AllNews.asp?code=jcj9xozw&headline=Games_Workshop_Shares_Down_As_It_Warns_On_Sterling_Hit_To_Profits

LONDON (Alliance News) - Games Workshop Group PLC saw its shares fall Monday after it said it now expects its operating profit for the first half to be slightly lower than last year, hit by the strong pound.

Shares in the maker of miniature figures and gaming sets were down 6.7% Monday morning at 506.99 pence, after it said that while trading in the six months to end-November has been "broadly in line" with its expectations when reported at constant currency, its taking a sterling hit at actual rates.

"The company has been exposed to the continuing strength of sterling, particularly against the US dollar and euro in the period reported," the company said.

Games Workshop said that it now expects to report a first-half operating profit GBP1 million lower than the prior year, when reported at actual rates. For the first-half of last year it generated an operating profit of GBP11 million.

The company said it will releases its half-year results on January 14, 2015.


Is that right ? Have they got their years confused ?

2012/13 First half profit was 11m
2013/14 First half profit was 7.7m
2014/15 First half proft is 6.7m ?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 13:07:35


Post by: WarOne


 Las wrote:
Can economics folks explain this a little more for us laymen? Is it a result of declining profits or does it have to do with the strength of currency?


What I'm concerned about is the math that GW seems to be relying upon.


"The company has been exposed to the continuing strength of sterling, particularly against the US dollar and euro in the period reported," the company said.


http://www.x-rates.com/graph/?from=GBP&to=USD&amount=1.00

http://www.x-rates.com/graph/?from=GBP&to=EUR&amount=1.00

The British pound was incrementally increasing for the first half of this year against the dollar, then plunged around July to levels lower than the start of 2014 in value versus the dollar. The Euro does lose ground against the pound in that same period, but would it be enough to make a difference?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 13:23:27


Post by: H.B.M.C.


Everything's totally in line with board expectations. Yep, truly:



GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 13:36:55


Post by: bubber


Down 30p at the mo - around 6.5%.
Got 44 shares myself so this is bad news for me :(
However I usually get around £12 dividend a year which, for a £200 investment, is still pretty good esp compared to savings accounts in the UK.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 13:45:57


Post by: agnosto


So, operating profits are down 1 million pounds from the previous 1/2 year. Last year was 11million pounds so that makes this year's 1st half 10million or another about 10% drop in operating profits. I remind you that this is in part taking into account GW releasing a new rules version for its flagship game, 40K. January will give us a clearer picture of whether GW has entered a death spiral or not.

In the Chairman's Preamble for the annual report, Kirby had this to say:
Games Workshop has had a really good year.
If your measure of 'good' is the current financial year's numbers, you may not agree. But if your measure is the long-term
survivability of a great cash generating business that still has a lot of potential growth, then you will agree.


Cash generating business only applies with growth, Mr. Kirby; sure your company is still profitable but less so than previous years. I wouldn't be so upbeat if my pay was cut 10% every 1/2 year....


Edit:
Something to keep in mind as well is that Operating Profit does not equal net profit (which Dividends are paid from); Net Profit is more than likely substantially lower as it will be reduced for taxes paid and extraordinary costs but might be increased by extraordinary gains; these would be items infrequent and unusual in nature.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 14:06:52


Post by: Yodhrin


I wonder if the board really believe their endless parade of excuses, or if they just think everyone else is daft enough to. EDIT: Oh and agnosto, you're correct about operating vs net profit, but don't think for a moment it will seriously affect dividends, they've borrowed money to pay those before and, given that the board have a vested interest in dividends getting paid due to their own shares as well as their knowledge that the share price overall lives or dies based on continuing to churn them out every year, they'll do it again.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 14:13:59


Post by: Thud


 agnosto wrote:
So, operating profits are down 1 million pounds from the previous 1/2 year. Last year was 11million pounds so that makes this year's 1st half 10million or another about 10% drop in operating profits. I remind you that this is in part taking into account GW releasing a new rules version for its flagship game, 40K. January will give us a clearer picture of whether GW has entered a death spiral or not.

In the Chairman's Preamble for the annual report, Kirby had this to say:
Games Workshop has had a really good year.
If your measure of 'good' is the current financial year's numbers, you may not agree. But if your measure is the long-term
survivability of a great cash generating business that still has a lot of potential growth, then you will agree.


Cash generating business only applies with growth, Mr. Kirby; sure your company is still profitable but less so than previous years. I wouldn't be so upbeat if my pay was cut 10% every 1/2 year....


Edit:
Something to keep in mind as well is that Operating Profit does not equal net profit (which Dividends are paid from); Net Profit is more than likely substantially lower as it will be reduced for taxes paid and extraordinary costs but might be increased by extraordinary gains; these would be items infrequent and unusual in nature.


Last year (i.e., first half of the 2013-2014 FY) was £7.7m in operating profit. The year before that was £11m.

What I'm really interested in, though, is to see how the revenue is doing.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 14:32:07


Post by: His Master's Voice


"Broadly in line", eh? That's always nice to hear.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 14:51:04


Post by: Azreal13


Ok, so last January it was the changeover to one man stores and the associated disruption, despite this being a long (ish) term scheme that was entirely within their control and hadn't been mentioned in advance at all.

The year end report it was down to spending money on sacking people and restructuring, but that was ok because now they'd done that they were in a much better place moving forward.

This time its currency fluctuations, despite the fact that currency hasn't fluctuated in an especially dramatic fashion (nothing outside of the ordinary sort of stuff that happens over a given period to the best of my recollection.)

On each occasion trading has been "broadly in line with management expectations."

It appears the only people GW consider dumber than their customers are their shareholders.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 14:52:58


Post by: agnosto


 Thud wrote:


Last year (i.e., first half of the 2013-2014 FY) was £7.7m in operating profit. The year before that was £11m.

What I'm really interested in, though, is to see how the revenue is doing.


Thanks for the correction, I must have misread it.

I'll be interested in seeing the January report as well; it will indicate whether the decline is a reality or a blip because it will include the release of 7th and all of the "End Times" stuff that keeps "selling out". (note: I put sell out in parenthesis because GW has proven to be unable to gauge interest in their products since they, you know, don't participate in market research nor care what the market has to say."


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 14:56:05


Post by: Blacksails


Now, I'm no businessologist, but if profit is falling, would it generally indicate either a corresponding drop in revenue, or a stable revenue hit by expenses or other factors?

In this case I suppose the other factors being the currency, as they claim.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 14:57:53


Post by: Azreal13


7th's first release weekend was already accounted for in the last reports, which will take the edge off it's impact in his one.

I'm also interested in the revenue, I'm fairly certain it will be down again, if GW had been spending a lot of cash on anything I'd be surprised if we hadn't heard anything about it, and I'm wondering how much further it would need to drop before we reach tipping point.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 Blacksails wrote:
Now, I'm no businessologist, but if profit is falling, would it generally indicate either a corresponding drop in revenue, or a stable revenue hit by expenses or other factors?

In this case I suppose the other factors being the currency, as they claim.


Kirby could just be spending it on hookers and blow.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 15:03:09


Post by: Shotgun


I guess it all depends on how "broad" that line is. And if they are using TLoS to view the endpoint.




Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Blacksails wrote:


Kirby could just be spending it on hookers and blow.


Finecast was just a smuggling ploy to get Chinese narcotics through customs? It isn't really "plastic", it is "crackstic"?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 15:15:17


Post by: sauhwq


I am Interested in it


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 15:17:32


Post by: SilverDevilfish


Now now guys, it could be that after cutting costs like madmen they've decided to take on additional costs and not pass the costs...

I can't finish it.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 15:27:27


Post by: Blacksails


 Azreal13 wrote:

Kirby could just be spending it on hookers and blow.


Best company weekend teamwork retreat ever.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 15:30:13


Post by: Accolade


This is Great News!!


...That is all.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 15:31:22


Post by: Kirasu


Uh oh.. currency fluctuated 0.5%.. Better raise prices by 15%


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 15:34:23


Post by: Azreal13


Those poor Antipodeans better brace themselves to take it in the tailpipe once again!


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 16:51:31


Post by: Yodhrin


 Azreal13 wrote:
Those poor Antipodeans better brace themselves to take it in the tailpipe once again!


If revenues really have continued to fall, I think everyone will be in for a sphincter-expanding experience in the new year.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 16:59:03


Post by: Backfire


 jonolikespie wrote:
Well that's... interesting.

This report will be VERY interesting.


Actually it sounds like it will be another boring, disappointing report all around - sales equating to weak late-2013 (which was supposed to be just a 'blip' and company was meant to turn around...) but not bad enough to vindicate those who are expecting the company to fold any minute.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 17:00:34


Post by: SilverMK2


What a pile of guff the GW comments on this are


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 17:04:42


Post by: Azreal13


Backfire wrote:
 jonolikespie wrote:
Well that's... interesting.

This report will be VERY interesting.


Actually it sounds like it will be another boring, disappointing report all around - sales equating to weak late-2013 (which was supposed to be just a 'blip' and company was meant to turn around...) but not bad enough to vindicate those who are expecting the company to fold any minute.


What?! All none of them?!!


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 17:17:18


Post by: master sheol


Today ending value was 510 dropping down from 542.50 that is -5.90%

Can we start to say finally "THE SKY IS FALLING!!!"...???


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 17:17:38


Post by: Do_I_Not_Like_That


Is this the moment that GW's crops wither and die, its children piteous deaths?

Like most people, I haven't a clue when it comes to net profits, gross profits, currency flow etc etc

So, in one friendly sound bite, can anybody answer this question: is this GW's inevitable decline and demise?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 17:21:06


Post by: Ouze


No, not yet.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 17:24:37


Post by: Do_I_Not_Like_That


 Ouze wrote:
No, not yet.


But bound to happen at some time?

If I get an indication that GW are going under (and I don't mean visiting Australia ) then I'd be tempted to stock up on GW profits, hoards them for 3-5 years, and rake in the cash on ebay.

I'd advise others to do the same. Last year, when I sold some citadel stuff from the 1980s, the demand was crazy.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 17:28:07


Post by: Azreal13


 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Is this the moment that GW's crops wither and die, its children piteous deaths?

Like most people, I haven't a clue when it comes to net profits, gross profits, currency flow etc etc

So, in one friendly sound bite, can anybody answer this question: is this GW's inevitable decline and demise?


Not even close.

It does appear to be the scenario that greater minds than mine predicted (costs have been cut, prices appear to have crossed, or be on the very edge of, the threshold of where the extra money raised is no longer offsetting the reduced sales, customer dissatisfaction has reached critical mass.)

Fundamentally, GW is still a profit making company, however they are on a downward trajectory, which carries the twin threat of turning them into a loss making company and making their public market value so low that a takeover becomes more and more plausible.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 17:28:09


Post by: Backfire


 Azreal13 wrote:
Backfire wrote:
[
Actually it sounds like it will be another boring, disappointing report all around - sales equating to weak late-2013 (which was supposed to be just a 'blip' and company was meant to turn around...) but not bad enough to vindicate those who are expecting the company to fold any minute.


What?! All none of them?!!


Don't you remember the last thread about this subject...?



GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 17:29:24


Post by: Azreal13


Better than you if you think anyone was predicting the imminent demise of the company.

EDIT
anyone was plausibly predicting the imminent demise of the company.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 17:33:07


Post by: Backfire


 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
 Ouze wrote:
No, not yet.


But bound to happen at some time?


Doesn't seem likely. The company's cash position is too strong for any quick development in this regard. Also given the nature of their product, it would be quite unlikely there would be sudden mass exodus of customers.

However it is a bad sign if they can't improve from supposedly anomalously poor first half of last Financial Year. If the sales continue to decline, at some point they start making a loss, and someone larger will eventually take over (atm their stock is still too high for convenient takeover), possibly closes the Nottingham and moves production to China.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 Azreal13 wrote:
Better than you if you think anyone was predicting the imminent demise of the company.

EDIT
anyone was plausibly predicting the imminent demise of the company.


Well, the plausibility was not in the criteria, was it...?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 17:36:58


Post by: shinr


The most pessimistic of the the more plausible predictions gave GW at least 2 years, give or take 6 months, so I don't expect this report to instantly kill them.

Unless they would do something incredibly stupid that will hurt them a lot, like TSR, but that is unlikely even for GW.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 17:41:19


Post by: Azreal13


Backfire wrote:

 Azreal13 wrote:
Better than you if you think anyone was predicting the imminent demise of the company.

EDIT
anyone was plausibly predicting the imminent demise of the company.


Well, the plausibility was not in the criteria, was it...?


It was in mine, if you give credence to every bat gak crazy, extreme, unsupported or speculative theory that crops up in this or any discussion about any subject you'll get bogged down pretty quickly.

Much better to simply dismiss them and move on.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
shinr wrote:
The most pessimistic of the the more plausible predictions gave GW at least 2 years, give or take 6 months, so I don't expect this report to instantly kill them.

Unless they would do something incredibly stupid that will hurt them a lot, like TSR, but that is unlikely even for GW.


No, the danger is that they don't really be seem to be shifting their approach in a substantial enough manner, it's often been speculated that GW corporate don't really have any new ideas other than to do what they've always done, when if what we're seeing is a downward trend and not some random 18 month long blip they probably need to have a fairly fundamental rethink of their approach.

(Probably beginning with reaching out to their customers and trying to sell them what they want to buy, rather than what they assume they will buy)


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 17:48:23


Post by: winterdyne


Shut up all of you and buy more space marines.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 17:50:17


Post by: His Master's Voice


 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
If I get an indication that GW are going under (and I don't mean visiting Australia ) then I'd be tempted to stock up on GW profits, hoards them for 3-5 years, and rake in the cash on ebay.


Publicly traded companies don't really "go under" in the way most people understand the term.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 17:53:11


Post by: NoggintheNog


winterdyne wrote:
Shut up all of you and buy more space marines.


At £18 each like the new sanguinary priest, I think they are running out of enough people who can afford to buy enough space marines to make any real change in things.

I mean, their luxury brand sells two apothecaries for £21, the cheap plastic is £18 for one.

That sort of idiotic business practice is not the way to turn anything at all around.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 18:06:56


Post by: Davylove21


How has the strong pound messed it up for GW? Wouldn't that be a benefit? Or has it been strong for ages, then gone bad a bit?

I feel like GW are on a decline to inevitable oblivion just by buying a new Tyranid army. Earlier Monstrous Creatures are around £24 at discount stores, the newer ones are about £33. There's no justification to it, just flapping arms like a drowning man.

I can't help but think that they could so easily pull it back in so many ways, but they're afraid of the gamble. Lord of the Rings went mainstream and with things like Big Bang Theory, LoL and Marvel, geek is chic right now. Just GW don't want to come to the party.

I hope they see sense. They're a bit Theoden before Gandalf sorts him out at the moment.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 18:07:46


Post by: Talys


master sheol wrote:
Today ending value was 510 dropping down from 542.50 that is -5.90%

Can we start to say finally "THE SKY IS FALLING!!!"...???


Only if we can say, "OMG OMG OMG" if it goes up to 542.5 tomorrow

Analyst recommendation is Buy. And if you look at the daily chart, it goes up and down through the day. The number of shares that traded hands was teenie tiny. I mean, that closing price was set by a transaction for... drumroll.... 35 shares.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
NoggintheNog wrote:
winterdyne wrote:
Shut up all of you and buy more space marines.


At £18 each like the new sanguinary priest, I think they are running out of enough people who can afford to buy enough space marines to make any real change in things.

I mean, their luxury brand sells two apothecaries for £21, the cheap plastic is £18 for one.

That sort of idiotic business practice is not the way to turn anything at all around.


And yet, I just bought a bunch of solo PP models for $30-$65 -- like Borka and Bradigus. All nice solo hero models are expensive; if you don't want to pay it (or don't love the model), proxy in a cheap $2 kitbash.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 18:34:38


Post by: Azreal13


Talys wrote:
master sheol wrote:
Today ending value was 510 dropping down from 542.50 that is -5.90%

Can we start to say finally "THE SKY IS FALLING!!!"...???


Only if we can say, "OMG OMG OMG" if it goes up to 542.5 tomorrow

Analyst recommendation is Buy. And if you look at the daily chart, it goes up and down through the day. The number of shares that traded hands was teenie tiny. I mean, that closing price was set by a transaction for... drumroll.... 35 shares.



Analyst recommendation was buy, IIRC you linked to that info last week, before the profits warning. But GAW trade at very low volumes as a rule, and small fluctuations throughout the day are totally normal - literally nothing to interpret out of that.

But honestly, those shareholders who were likely to run scared already scarpered in January, we are unlikely to see another cliff drop like we did then, but I wouldn't expect any significant rises for a but either.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 18:53:53


Post by: easysauce


 bubber wrote:
Down 30p at the mo - around 6.5%.
Got 44 shares myself so this is bad news for me :(
However I usually get around £12 dividend a year which, for a £200 investment, is still pretty good esp compared to savings accounts in the UK.


wow... thats actually a really good dividend

considering the over all economic troubles,

the state of the economy is quite simply, that no one is buying anything (at least not buying enough)


oil prices have crashed, other areas in the world economy have been doing poorly as well. I would expect high l=priced luxury goods to not perform as well and can see a fair amount of volatility in this kind of climate, especially exports like GW when currency prices are all over the place.

so, that GW is making "less profit" or its shares went down 6% isnt the best news for them, its still profit at the end of the day, so long as they are in the black im not too worried about them dying off.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 18:57:33


Post by: skarsol


If there's one thing GW is good at, it's paying out dividends. You might almost think that's their goal...


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 18:57:46


Post by: Olgerth Istaarn


The blame game should be amusing. Anything but GW themselves, of course.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 19:00:15


Post by: weeble1000


 Olgerth Istaarn wrote:
The blame game should be amusing. Anything but GW themselves, of course.


What will be really amusing is if we go back into the last 10 mid/full year financial reports, pull out all of the blame game language, and line it up chronologically.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 19:25:01


Post by: warboss


 H.B.M.C. wrote:
Everything's totally in line with board expectations. Yep, truly:



You've been waiting six months to post that, haven't you?


Automatically Appended Next Post:
I find it completely unsurprising that pumping out a poorly thought out cash grab edition only two years after the previous one didn't have a stellar effect on sales. The removal of utility from the codex books along with an almost doubling of codex price PLUS offering the content that used to be included as a separate cash grab digital or physical purchase like dataslates or some of the previous codex supplements (with no thought paid to game balance of course!) doesn't seemed to have helped either. It's almost like the dvd reboxing trend mixed with wannabe microtransactions that they've adopted into the tabletop wargame production strategy isn't bringing enough new players on board or keeping existing ones to any degree noticeable in the only metric they care about (profits). Shocking!

It's almost as if lots of gamers are forging their own narrative with their wallets in response to the new "freedom" GW is giving gamers.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 19:29:56


Post by: Pacific


Down 30p at the mo - around 6.5%.
Got 44 shares myself so this is bad news for me :(
However I usually get around £12 dividend a year which, for a £200 investment, is still pretty good esp compared to savings accounts in the UK.


It's not bad, you can get a lot better if you look around though.

I also wouldn't even consider buying shares in GW even if they were on the rise, it's essentially supporting their current policies and the state of the company.

 Davylove21 wrote:


I hope they see sense. They're a bit Theoden before Gandalf sorts him out at the moment.


Comment of the thread so far!


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 19:35:54


Post by: Runic


It amazes me how people are amazed that a company presents itself in a favorable way even when having trouble.

Point me to a company the size of GW that blatantly writes "we are doing bad." -in their report. Ofcourse they use terms like "according to expectations." All companies do this, I wonder why some make different rules for GW.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 19:37:59


Post by: Azreal13


 RunicFIN wrote:
It amazes me how people are amazed that a company presents itself in a favorable way even when having trouble.

Point me to a company the size of GW that blatantly writes "we are doing bad." -in their report. Ofcourse they use terms like "according to expectations." All companies do this, I wonder why some make different rules for GW.


It's equally stupid whoever's doing it. It is equally deserving of mockery whoever is doing it.

Right now, the only company relevant to the content of this forum is GW, and they're doing it.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 19:39:53


Post by: Accolade


 RunicFIN wrote:
It amazes me how people are amazed that a company presents itself in a favorable way even when having trouble.

Point me to a company the size of GW that blatantly writes "we are doing bad." -in their report. Ofcourse they use terms like "according to expectations." All companies do this, I wonder why some make different rules for GW.


I think it's the way GW presents itself in light of things not going positively.

Things like "Our crops will wither, etc. etc." makes for an entertaining show of it.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 19:41:36


Post by: Runic


 Azreal13 wrote:
It's equally stupid whoever's doing it. It is equally deserving of mockery whoever is doing it.

Right now, the only company relevant to the content of this forum is GW, and they're doing it.


If you had a company ( oh wait, you do ) and it would be doing bad, would you advertise it blatantly? Yeah, didn´t think so.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 19:46:32


Post by: Azreal13


Of course not!

But if I was papering over the cracks I wouldn't expect people not to take the piss out of blatant hoop jumping, knot tying, prevarication, finger pointing or smoke blowing either.

Just because it's the done thing, it doesn't make it not stupid.

But then, I've pretty much already said that and you didn't grasp it.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 19:51:44


Post by: Yodhrin


 RunicFIN wrote:
 Azreal13 wrote:
It's equally stupid whoever's doing it. It is equally deserving of mockery whoever is doing it.

Right now, the only company relevant to the content of this forum is GW, and they're doing it.


If you had a company ( oh wait, you do ) and it would be doing bad, would you advertise it blatantly? Yeah, didn´t think so.


There's a difference between the board putting out a financial statement that amounts to "WOE, WOE, WOOOOEEEE! Gird your loins, my children, for all is WOOOOOEEEEEE!" and acknowledging that things aren't going so well and you're going to take steps to address it. Nobody is expecting Kirby to actually admit he's a moron, but at some point they're going to have to stop blaming everyone and everything else and actually lay out how the company is going to proceed.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 19:56:14


Post by: Runic


 Azreal13 wrote:
Of course not!

But if I was papering over the cracks I wouldn't expect people not to take the piss out of blatant hoop jumping, knot tying, prevarication, finger pointing or smoke blowing either.

Just because it's the done thing, it doesn't make it not stupid.

But then, I've pretty much already said that and you didn't grasp it.


Except in this case, actually, you didn´t grasp what I said. Ofcourse it´s stupid. The mind boggling part is how some don´t see how commoplace it is.

 Yodhrin wrote:
There's a difference between the board putting out a financial statement that amounts to "WOE, WOE, WOOOOEEEE! Gird your loins, my children, for all is WOOOOOEEEEEE!" and acknowledging that things aren't going so well and you're going to take steps to address it. Nobody is expecting Kirby to actually admit he's a moron, but at some point they're going to have to stop blaming everyone and everything else and actually lay out how the company is going to proceed.


To be honest there´s hundreds of other companies with reports that are worded just like GW´s. Like I said, it´s common, everyday stuff. I guess the people who have the energy to be amazed about it haven´t read too many reports outside GW and are thinking they are something special. They´re not.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 20:02:20


Post by: Azreal13


 RunicFIN wrote:
 Azreal13 wrote:
Of course not!

But if I was papering over the cracks I wouldn't expect people not to take the piss out of blatant hoop jumping, knot tying, prevarication, finger pointing or smoke blowing either.

Just because it's the done thing, it doesn't make it not stupid.

But then, I've pretty much already said that and you didn't grasp it.


Except in this case, actually, you didn´t grasp what I said. Ofcourse it´s stupid. The mind boggling part is how some don´t see how commoplace it is


I fail to see the relevance to what you're saying other than to try and lash out at people who are treating the excuse making with the derision it deserves. If something stupid happens all the time, is it magically less stupid?

No.

So what's your point. That some people are reacting to this in a derisory manner without being aware that equally stupid things happen with other companies that aren't GW on a regular basis?

There's absolutely no substance to what you're saying at all.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 20:02:50


Post by: Thud


Blatantly admitting to doing poorly?

Something like this?

This year has seen both sales and profits decline. The decline in sales was expected, but it has been hard to project accurately the amount. Most of the decline is due to the trading cycles I spoke about last year – partly product cycles and partly channel problems. Some of it, though, is our own fault. During the good times, when life is easy, it’s possible to forget the good habits that earned those good times. All of us forgot some of those good habits, and some of us forgot all of them.


Guess which company.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 20:10:52


Post by: weeble1000


 RunicFIN wrote:
To be honest there´s hundreds of other companies with reports that are worded just like GW´s. Like I said, it´s common, everyday stuff. I guess the people who have the energy to be amazed about it haven´t read too many reports outside GW and are thinking they are something special. They´re not.


To be honest, no, no there's not.

Games Workshop has had a really good year.
If your measure of 'good' is the current financial year's numbers, you may not agree. But if your measure is the long-term survivability of a
great cash generating business that still has a lot of potential growth, then you will agree.


Because no one seems able to grasp the essential simplicity of what we do there has always been the search for the Achilles heel, the one
thing that Kirby and his cronies have overlooked. These are legion.


Kirby's rambling 'plain-speaking' (idiotic?) preambles are so characteristically unusual that it has been newsworthy.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 20:11:49


Post by: Runic


 Azreal13 wrote:

I fail to see the relevance to what you're saying other than to try and lash out at people who are treating the excuse making with the derision it deserves.


That´s just an opinion of yours, not an universal truth, sorry. Nice pseudointellectual counter-argument there, however finding commonplace things somehow extraordinary I find a bit stupid aswell. And that also, is an opinion.

 Thud wrote:

This year has seen both sales and profits decline. The decline in sales was expected, but it has been hard to project accurately the amount. Most of the decline is due to the trading cycles I spoke about last year – partly product cycles and partly channel problems. Some of it, though, is our own fault. During the good times, when life is easy, it’s possible to forget the good habits that earned those good times. All of us forgot some of those good habits, and some of us forgot all of them.


Guess which company.


I fail to see what purpose this serves as the point was that other companies act like GW do. Just because there are some that don´t doesn´t make it any less so, unless someone argumented that no company admits failure. Which I atleast did not.


weeble1000 wrote:
To be honest, no, no there's not.


I´ll give you the benefit of doubt and just presume you understood perfectly what I was talking about. So yeah, there are, and there always will be.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 20:16:03


Post by: Grimtuff


 RunicFIN wrote:

To be honest there´s hundreds of other companies with reports that are worded just like GW´s. Like I said, it´s common, everyday stuff. I guess the people who have the energy to be amazed about it haven´t read too many reports outside GW and are thinking they are something special. They´re not.


Go on then, humour us and show us these reports.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say your endeavour will be... otiose.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 20:21:38


Post by: Runic


 Grimtuff wrote:
Go on then, humour us and show us these reports.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say your endeavour will be... otiose.


Forgot to ignore you the last time, goodbye. Humour the others by screaming that other companies in existence don´t act in the same manner with their reports because I didn´t provide you proof. After that you could start a conspiracy website about the earth being round, as no one provided you with a concretical source on the matter.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 20:22:26


Post by: Theduke07


Failing corporation just being looted by its leaders. Nothing new; classic strategy to just squeeze as much blood from the stone as possible.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 20:24:57


Post by: Grimtuff


 RunicFIN wrote:
 Grimtuff wrote:
Go on then, humour us and show us these reports.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say your endeavour will be... otiose.


Forgot to ignore you the last time, goodbye. Humour the others by screaming that other companies in existence don´t act in the same manner with their reports because I didn´t provide you proof. After that you could start a conspiracy website about the earth being round, as no one provided you with a concretical source on the matter.


Then the burden of proof would be on me. However, as you are the one who has made such a statement the burden of proof is on YOU.

I'll be waiting for these Kirby-esq writing style reports from those hundred of other businesses.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 20:25:27


Post by: Azreal13


 RunicFIN wrote:
 Azreal13 wrote:

I fail to see the relevance to what you're saying other than to try and lash out at people who are treating the excuse making with the derision it deserves.


That´s just an opinion of yours, not an universal truth,

Correct!


Nice pseudointellectual counter-argument there,

Spoiler:


finding commonplace things somehow extraordinary I find a bit stupid aswell. And that also, is an opinion.


However, commenting on things that are stupid about the largest wargaming company in a forum about wargaming where those common place things don't often occur, and that is full of people who wouldn't necessarily have the knowledge to know how commonplace they are is completely understandable.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 20:25:56


Post by: warboss


 Theduke07 wrote:
Failing corporation just being looted by its leaders. Nothing new; classic strategy to just squeeze as much blood from the stone as possible.


Let's not exaggerate as it just fuels the fires of those who want to dismiss criticism of the company (and it's effects on the bottom line) willy nilly. They're not failing; they're just less profitable year after year. They're still turning a profit but the trend is now indisputable and established from several years of data and not changed by cash grab "solutions".


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 20:30:57


Post by: Azreal13


 RunicFIN wrote:

 Thud wrote:

This year has seen both sales and profits decline. The decline in sales was expected, but it has been hard to project accurately the amount. Most of the decline is due to the trading cycles I spoke about last year – partly product cycles and partly channel problems. Some of it, though, is our own fault. During the good times, when life is easy, it’s possible to forget the good habits that earned those good times. All of us forgot some of those good habits, and some of us forgot all of them.


Guess which company.


I fail to see what purpose this serves as the point was that other companies act like GW do. Just because there are some that don´t doesn´t make it any less so, unless someone argumented that no company admits failure. Which I atleast did not.



It was Kirby. Circa, what 2008? Perhaps earlier.



GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 20:32:13


Post by: ekwatts


weeble1000 wrote:
 RunicFIN wrote:
To be honest there´s hundreds of other companies with reports that are worded just like GW´s. Like I said, it´s common, everyday stuff. I guess the people who have the energy to be amazed about it haven´t read too many reports outside GW and are thinking they are something special. They´re not.


To be honest, no, no there's not.

Games Workshop has had a really good year.
If your measure of 'good' is the current financial year's numbers, you may not agree. But if your measure is the long-term survivability of a
great cash generating business that still has a lot of potential growth, then you will agree.


Because no one seems able to grasp the essential simplicity of what we do there has always been the search for the Achilles heel, the one
thing that Kirby and his cronies have overlooked. These are legion.


Kirby's rambling 'plain-speaking' (idiotic?) preambles are so characteristically unusual that it has been newsworthy.


Except that reporter is actually referring to Andrew Perloff, the chairman of Panther Securities and comparing him to Kirby.

I really don't see what any of these threads are really for, but weird porn for people who are obsessed with its imminent demise. GW do what they do and they sit right at the very top of the food chain. So what? They aren't really the same company they were in 1984, 1990, 1996 (thankfully) or 1999. So what? The whole gaming industry right now is in absolutely rude health from what I can see, and the internet has helped immeasurably. GW are simply too successful to fold; their profits are down a few million? Well, damn, they still appear to be making tens of millions more than many other companies. That does not spell imminent demise. And even though I'm not all that interested in GW miniatures anymore (though what I've seen the last few years actually looks pretty amazing, almost enough to tempt me back) their other products are brilliant, like the paints, brushes and quite alot of the terrain (the Citadel wood was the first GW model I'd bought in three years, and then I bought another four sets) so I'd be quite happy for them to stick around for another thirty years.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 20:32:20


Post by: Runic




Not sure I used that word with you before, and I´m quite aware what it means thank you.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 20:32:53


Post by: NoggintheNog


 Azreal13 wrote:


It was Kirby. Circa, what 2008? Perhaps earlier.



2006 ish I think.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 20:34:49


Post by: Thud


Nice to see I'm not the only one who has been paying attention to the reports for more than the last year. It was indeed Kirby in 2007.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 20:34:55


Post by: Grimtuff


 RunicFIN wrote:


Not sure I used that word with you before, and I´m quite aware what it means thank you.


All evidence the the contrary....


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 20:36:30


Post by: Runic


 ekwatts wrote:
I really don't see what any of these threads are really for, but weird porn for people who are obsessed with its supposed imminent demise.


It´s even made better by the fact that this has been ongoing for 10 years. Every positive report is a fluke, a direct result of this and that ( ofcourse they are, should GW just conjure money out of thin air for these people to be satisfied? ) and they are always dismissed, and every negative one is where GW falls under for the 765th time. Comedy at its best.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 20:40:04


Post by: Kilkrazy


 RunicFIN wrote:
 Azreal13 wrote:
Of course not!

But if I was papering over the cracks I wouldn't expect people not to take the piss out of blatant hoop jumping, knot tying, prevarication, finger pointing or smoke blowing either.

Just because it's the done thing, it doesn't make it not stupid.

But then, I've pretty much already said that and you didn't grasp it.


Except in this case, actually, you didn´t grasp what I said. Ofcourse it´s stupid. The mind boggling part is how some don´t see how commoplace it is.

 Yodhrin wrote:
There's a difference between the board putting out a financial statement that amounts to "WOE, WOE, WOOOOEEEE! Gird your loins, my children, for all is WOOOOOEEEEEE!" and acknowledging that things aren't going so well and you're going to take steps to address it. Nobody is expecting Kirby to actually admit he's a moron, but at some point they're going to have to stop blaming everyone and everything else and actually lay out how the company is going to proceed.


To be honest there´s hundreds of other companies with reports that are worded just like GW´s. Like I said, it´s common, everyday stuff. I guess the people who have the energy to be amazed about it haven´t read too many reports outside GW and are thinking they are something special. They´re not.


No there aren't. The Daily Telegraph business pages went out of their way to comment in the off piste type of reports that GW puts out. It really is pretty unusual, and worthy of comment.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 20:40:23


Post by: Dr Mathias


GW has been 'too expensive' and 'collapsing soon' since the early 90s, if not before.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 21:07:16


Post by: Kilkrazy


Let's wait until the interim report. If it is down on last year they might actually be too expensive and collapsing soon.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 21:08:34


Post by: TheKbob


 RunicFIN wrote:
 Grimtuff wrote:
Go on then, humour us and show us these reports.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say your endeavour will be... otiose.


Forgot to ignore you the last time, goodbye. Humour the others by screaming that other companies in existence don´t act in the same manner with their reports because I didn´t provide you proof. After that you could start a conspiracy website about the earth being round, as no one provided you with a concretical source on the matter.


Translation:
Spoiler:
I cannot dispute you and you have an opinion I don't like, thus I'll ignore you and pretend it never happened. It's working for Games Workshop, so why not for me?


The "I'm ignoring you" post is the most childish response you can have. Burden of Proof is a logical fallacy, my friend.

The usual gang will be rolling out, pouring ourselves a festive beverage, and awaiting the semi-annual of lighting up the GW fiscal report. Forgo your loved ones, keep your pajamas on, and prepare yourself for internet fun. Gather 'round, y'all.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 21:10:52


Post by: H.B.M.C.


Seems we have a new member who has thicker shields than even Kan. Impressive.


 Dr Mathias wrote:
GW has been 'too expensive' and 'collapsing soon' since the early 90s, if not before.


Except that's not true. Anyone with a brain can see how well they were doing during the LOTR years, and how it expanded their brand, their business, and their profits. They were growing. Now they're shrinking.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 21:14:01


Post by: Grimtuff


 H.B.M.C. wrote:

 Dr Mathias wrote:
GW has been 'too expensive' and 'collapsing soon' since the early 90s, if not before.


Except that's not true. Anyone with a brain can see how well they were doing during the LOTR years, and how it expanded their brand, their business, and their profits. They were growing. Now they're shrinking.


Yup. As described by the old manager of my local GW the shelves at the end of the weekend looked like "a Russian bread shop" during the LOTR boom. Same cannot be said for nowadays. Well, nowadays there's less product on the shelves and its spread out to cover the gaps.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 21:14:05


Post by: Runic


I was talking about companies showing themself in a favorable light, and smoothing out the edces in general, which is what countless companies do around the world every day. There. Are.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 21:14:40


Post by: Ketara


 RunicFIN wrote:
 ekwatts wrote:
I really don't see what any of these threads are really for, but weird porn for people who are obsessed with its supposed imminent demise.


It´s even made better by the fact that this has been ongoing for 10 years. Every positive report is a fluke, a direct result of this and that ( ofcourse they are, should GW just conjure money out of thin air for these people to be satisfied? ) and they are always dismissed, and every negative one is where GW falls under for the 765th time. Comedy at its best.


What positive reports? I haven't seen one that I can recall since the LOTR bubble burst.

There's a very steady trend of cost-cutting and price raises over the last half a decade. I would opine that GW originally envisaged it as a way of making the same amount of money whilst having to produce/handle less product (thus cutting costs further). Not necessarily a bad idea in and of itself.

The problem is that when taking such a course of action, there's a watershed at which if you've cut too far, that profit figure can start to fall. GW passed that point, and just reasoned , 'Hey, well, if we cut those costs and price raise just a little more, the new sales figures will make us the same amount of profit as it used to do'.

But then it didn't. So they kept jacking up prices and cost-cutting, convinced that the perfect balance was constantly just around the corner, and missing it each and every time. The result being a steady decline in both costs to themselves, but also of total profit, with the decline in profit always steadily just ahead of the savings made.

They're not in a death spiral, far from it, but the actions taken by their management shown a genuine lack of innovation and understanding of their core market. If they keep it up for another five years, we may see their total profit down from ten million to five or three, with their running costs appropriately smaller. And whilst that wouldn't destroy them in and of itself, it's not exactly a good thing for the company.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 21:17:41


Post by: TheKbob


Games Workshop has gotten some money from me this year with a copy of Space Hulk (I stayed true to my "release it and I'll buy!" word), but did it really sell all that great? I was hearing anecdotes of it warming the shelves with a cooled reception.

Not the best board game, but it's a better beer and pretzels than the actual table top game, IMO. I'm sure the re-release was spurred by a "let's print money" notion, but did that succeed?

Also, their latest poster boys released is rumored to have no new units, changing the force organization to invalidate previous armies, and raising the price on core troops again. Doesn't seem to be a wise choice, to me.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 21:18:50


Post by: Runic




The most adult response towards someone whos only goal is to follow one around and irritate them on purpose is to ignore them, in my opinion.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 21:20:15


Post by: Grimtuff


 RunicFIN wrote:
I was talking about companies showing themself in a favorable light, and smoothing out the edces in general, which is what countless companies do around the world every day. There. Are.


Keep backpedaling. That's not what you said at all.

So, about those financial reports from other companies that are written exactly how Kirby writes? Don't make us go all Paxman on you.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 21:24:32


Post by: Krinsath


Yes, the "Everything is fine!" language in the body of the report is pretty par for the course. Having helped with a few public reports, there's always some sort of sunshine-pushing going on. I wouldn't read anything into it as the reports are shareholder marketing, and all marketing is lies.

Numbers can be made to lie as well, but a six million pound profit still translates to "not going away anytime soon" in most circles. They are vastly under-performing their market segment where many other vendors are showing growth while they are contracting, but that's not particularly shocking to anyone who's been paying attention. Sadly, the list of people paying attention does not include GW's staff based on their latest annual report.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 21:29:03


Post by: Azreal13


 Krinsath wrote:
Yes, the "Everything is fine!" language in the body of the report is pretty par for the course. Having helped with a few public reports, there's always some sort of sunshine-pushing going on. I wouldn't read anything into it as the reports are shareholder marketing, and all marketing is lies.

Numbers can be made to lie as well, but a six million pound profit still translates to "not going away anytime soon" in most circles. They are vastly under-performing their market segment where many other vendors are showing growth while they are contracting, but that's not particularly shocking to anyone who's been paying attention. Sadly, the list of people paying attention does not include GW's staff based on their latest annual report.


My chief concern would be, given the current pattern, is that their net profit is reasonable for their turnover, but their cost base is substantial. It wouldn't take much more than a few duff releases at this point that didn't sell to average or expected numbers, to push revenue down sufficiently that they started making a net loss. Even that wouldn't be the imminent doom, they could post a loss and still keep trading, depending on their reserves and making further economies, but something would still need to happen to change the current trajectory, and I'm just not seeing that at this point.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 21:29:48


Post by: Wonderwolf


 TheKbob wrote:


Not the best board game, but it's a better beer and pretzels than the actual table top game, IMO. I'm sure the re-release was spurred by a "let's print money" notion, but did that succeed?



Well, it won things like ... board gaming awards ... how many GW games can say that .. Lol.

And I don't even think it was "only" about "let's print money". It sets up the entire Blood Angels vs. Tyranid campaign nicely. But, like Stormclaw, GW seems unable to square their new (actually not bad) idea for "tie-two-armies-with-a-campaign-and-box" with their own paranoid secrecy policy.

As armchair marketing guy (e.g. no qualifications whatsoever), I can't help but think these campaigns would've created more excitement, if they'd come out at the start and said... "listen, we're doing a huge Blood Angels vs. Tyranids campaign for the next 3 months, kicking off with Space Hulk... here's a first story/mission booklet (White Dwarf, download, etc..) to get you started and tease the story". Add store-run campaigns, etc.., off you go.

Instead, not even store managers seemed to know before the boxes arrived.

Ultimately, I am a bit sad. Stormclaw and Space Hulk didn't seem to have gotten GW out of its funk, which I can only assume means these formats go back to the endangered species list of GW products, and I actually thought they were some of the cooler 40K products in a while.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 21:30:30


Post by: MWHistorian


Since the LOTR bubble burst, it's been a steady trend of downwards.
I've been around since RT and I've never seen it this bad. Not just financially but moral of the playerbase. This isn't "business as normal." Something is wrong and if GW doesn't fix it, they will go under. (though I don't think it'll be any time soon.)


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 21:40:38


Post by: weeble1000


 ekwatts wrote:
Except that reporter is actually referring to Andrew Perloff, the chairman of Panther Securities and comparing him to Kirby.


It was in the news because it is not commonplace. Just because someone other than Tom Kirby writes preambles like that doesn't mean that it is the norm. The person I was responding to was arguing in a particularly acidic way that this was a normal practice engaged in by hundreds of companies, so normal that it was not worth talking about.

Lo and behold, it is so not normal that it is the subject of mainstream financial news for its departure from normalcy.

That is the point I was making, and that was the thrust of the article I provided a link to.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 21:48:18


Post by: Azreal13


Wonderwolf wrote:


As armchair marketing guy (e.g. no qualifications whatsoever), I can't help but think these campaigns would've created more excitement, if they'd come out at the start and said... "listen, we're doing a huge Blood Angels vs. Tyranids campaign for the next 3 months, kicking off with Space Hulk... here's a first story/mission booklet (White Dwarf, download, etc..) to get you started and tease the story". Add store-run campaigns, etc.., off you go.


In this context, your qualifications aren't in the least important, what's important is that you are a person who buys, or may consider buying, GW's product.

Therefore what you think is the most important thing in the world for GW, or should be when it comes to how they should be doing things. Unless you held some extreme or unsustainable viewpoint, and what you say here isn't, what you say as "armchair marketing guy" aka "a potential customer" should be akin to holy writings for GW.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 22:07:45


Post by: H.B.M.C.


Wonderwolf wrote:
As armchair marketing guy (e.g. no qualifications whatsoever), I can't help but think these campaigns would've created more excitement, if they'd come out at the start and said... "listen, we're doing a huge Blood Angels vs. Tyranids campaign for the next 3 months, kicking off with Space Hulk... here's a first story/mission booklet (White Dwarf, download, etc..) to get you started and tease the story". Add store-run campaigns, etc.., off you go.

Instead, not even store managers seemed to know before the boxes arrived.

Ultimately, I am a bit sad. Stormclaw and Space Hulk didn't seem to have gotten GW out of its funk, which I can only assume means these formats go back to the endangered species list of GW products, and I actually thought they were some of the cooler 40K products in a while.


I couldn't agree with this any more than I already do.

Time and time again GW fail to leverage the strengths of their own brand, choosing either the fire-and-forget methodology (no synergy with big video game releases, like DoW and WAR), or the FineCast Curtain of secrecy (the aforementioned store managers being left in the dark until the day the stock arrives). The company seems almost at odds with itself, with various groups within the company working against one another (even passively).

They could have made a big deal of Space Hulk, the Shield of Baal stuff, and the eventual Blood Angel codex. Instead they launched it on anyone without so much as a day's notice (other than leaks), and seemed more interested in foisting the new BA Tac Squad on us by changing the BA rules to remove Assault Squads as Troops than they were in creating a cohesive multi-month launch even to both raise awareness and get people involved/invested.

It's sad really. Two big campaign releases and they best they can show for it is a spike in sales for a month. Yippee.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 22:48:03


Post by: RiTides


Oh. The Space Hulk contents match up with the latest army releases, Blood Angels and Tyranids! I totally did not notice that... and heck, I'm paying attention to this stuff. The average consumer probably did not register that connection at all, since there has been little marketing along those lines.

Still hoping a few more reports like this will spur change at the company. We can only hope! My purchases have mostly moved on from GW for the last several years anyway, despite the fact that I spend a similar amount on wargames. Their profits are definitely trending down due to less market share and stiff competition that is catering to consumer's needs that GW can't/won't meet.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 22:51:00


Post by: lord_blackfang


 His Master's Voice wrote:
"Broadly in line", eh? That's always nice to hear.


They expected +6% and got -6%, it's just one little line of difference


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 22:54:44


Post by: sand.zzz


 TheKbob wrote:
Also, their latest poster boys released is rumored to have no new units, changing the force organization to invalidate previous armies, and raising the price on core troops again.


Thats a terrible thing to do to your customers, and the benefits cant outweigh the damage it does. The only possible reason I could see them choosing this course is that they have their eye on the short term only. but the number of new models being released contradicts that. so who knows, maybe they really are just stupid.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 22:58:24


Post by: Azreal13


sand.zzz wrote:
 TheKbob wrote:
Also, their latest poster boys released is rumored to have no new units, changing the force organization to invalidate previous armies, and raising the price on core troops again.


Thats a terrible thing to do to your customers, and the benefits cant outweigh the damage it does. The only possible reason I could see them choosing this course is that they have their eye on the short term only. but the number of new models being released contradicts that. so who knows, maybe they really are just stupid.


What I'm going to refer to as "the Nephilim defence" going forward, applies here, if GW were really smart enough to use the rules to manipulate sales of new kits or those with flagging sales, then these units wouldn't be as bad as they are.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 23:00:34


Post by: sand.zzz


 H.B.M.C. wrote:
Wonderwolf wrote:
As armchair marketing guy (e.g. no qualifications whatsoever), I can't help but think these campaigns would've created more excitement, if they'd come out at the start and said... "listen, we're doing a huge Blood Angels vs. Tyranids campaign for the next 3 months, kicking off with Space Hulk... here's a first story/mission booklet (White Dwarf, download, etc..) to get you started and tease the story". Add store-run campaigns, etc.., off you go.

Instead, not even store managers seemed to know before the boxes arrived.

Ultimately, I am a bit sad. Stormclaw and Space Hulk didn't seem to have gotten GW out of its funk, which I can only assume means these formats go back to the endangered species list of GW products, and I actually thought they were some of the cooler 40K products in a while.


I couldn't agree with this any more than I already do.

Time and time again GW fail to leverage the strengths of their own brand, choosing either the fire-and-forget methodology (no synergy with big video game releases, like DoW and WAR), or the FineCast Curtain of secrecy (the aforementioned store managers being left in the dark until the day the stock arrives). The company seems almost at odds with itself, with various groups within the company working against one another (even passively).

They could have made a big deal of Space Hulk, the Shield of Baal stuff, and the eventual Blood Angel codex. Instead they launched it on anyone without so much as a day's notice (other than leaks), and seemed more interested in foisting the new BA Tac Squad on us by changing the BA rules to remove Assault Squads as Troops than they were in creating a cohesive multi-month launch even to both raise awareness and get people involved/invested.

It's sad really. Two big campaign releases and they best they can show for it is a spike in sales for a month. Yippee.


If they put out a release schedule it affords people the opportunity of planning their purchases. If you know your army is getting two new kits and a new Codex six weeks from now, then youre less likely to start that 2000 point Tyranid army over the next couple weeks.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 23:03:27


Post by: Herzlos


 Davylove21 wrote:
How has the strong pound messed it up for GW? Wouldn't that be a benefit?


A stronger gbp means foreign sales earned them less in gbp.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 23:07:38


Post by: Azreal13


This is only based on casual observation, but I haven't noticed the US$ much outside the 1.6-1.70 range all year, and I probably check more often than your average geezer as I semi-regularly by stuff in $ instead of sterling.

This is in no way me stating a fact, there may have been a period of months where it was in the 1.90s I simply didn't have cause to check, but this simply doesn't ring true to my ear.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 23:08:35


Post by: weeble1000


Herzlos wrote:
 Davylove21 wrote:
How has the strong pound messed it up for GW? Wouldn't that be a benefit?


A stronger gbp means foreign sales earned them less in gbp.


As much as GW doesn't like it, a huge amount of its revenue comes from here in 'merica ( yea), where we are all power gamers and pig thieves.

But the gbp hasn't really moved much against the dollar, at least not to an extent, so far as I understand, to justify GW's presumably poor profits.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 23:10:21


Post by: Desubot


weeble1000 wrote:
pig thieves.


Exsqueese me?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 23:12:27


Post by: Theduke07


GW only cares about new player/new army purchase sales. Suckers like us still buying in are just the gravy.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 23:16:55


Post by: frozenwastes


The most interesting thing will be the exceptional expenses. Like how they spent 4 million on the new website. And even more on restructuring. Those type of expenses aren't supposed to recur. So has revenue dropped so much that profits dropped 1 million + all the exceptional expenses? Or do they have new exceptional expenses and flat revenue?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 23:19:29


Post by: H.B.M.C.


sand.zzz wrote:
If they put out a release schedule it affords people the opportunity of planning their purchases. If you know your army is getting two new kits and a new Codex six weeks from now, then youre less likely to start that 2000 point Tyranid army over the next couple weeks.


They don't want you to plan. They want you to BUY NOW. Not wait, not think, just BUY NOW.

GW's current business strategy is "encourage unthinking impulse buying", and we can all see how well it's working.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 23:22:27


Post by: warboss


 Desubot wrote:
weeble1000 wrote:
pig thieves.


Exsqueese me?


Read the most recent yearly report. The CEO actually referred to the case he brought against chapterhouse in which they lost or dropped 3/4 of the claims as failing not because of their lack of legal standing and preparation but because the US legal system was made to address things like porcine theft.... seriously. Ironically, the pumbagore was not on the list of supposedly infringing models.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 H.B.M.C. wrote:
sand.zzz wrote:
If they put out a release schedule it affords people the opportunity of planning their purchases. If you know your army is getting two new kits and a new Codex six weeks from now, then youre less likely to start that 2000 point Tyranid army over the next couple weeks.


They don't want you to plan. They want you to BUY NOW. Not wait, not think, just BUY NOW.

GW's current business strategy is "encourage unthinking impulse buying", and we can all see how well it's working.


A-Team's Hannibal would be very disappointed with their plan. The net effect of all their brilliant strategies seems to be having the opposite effect year after year. The only fat left to trim at GW is in their bone marrow and yet they're making less profit because they're simply selling less and less with each grand plan.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/08 23:54:40


Post by: Ehsteve


 Las wrote:
Can economics folks explain this a little more for us laymen? Is it a result of declining profits or does it have to do with the strength of currency?

Simply put: when a product is more expensive, people buy less of it. When your currency is strong, it is more expensive for other countries to buy your products.

i.e. If a pen costs £10GBP at an exchange rate of £1GBP=$1.5USD, that means the pen costs someone in America $15USD

If that exchange rate shifts upwards to £1GBP=$1.7USD, that means the pen now costs $17USD. That's a 13.3% increase in price for the exact same product (independent of inflation over time). The US customer can only budget for the same amount each order, so you buy 13.3% less pens or worse yet, they look for other suppliers of these pens (either similar or the same).

Unless you retain the foreign currency and your own weakens, you cannot effectively make any real gain from strong currency. However it does make purchasing items from weaker currency more inviting.

So a lot of factors affect profit. Strong currency can be one of them. In this case it would be fairly marginal, so it's not the whole story. Then again you rarely get the whole story from any of these reports.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 00:14:33


Post by: Azreal13


All perfectly logical, but don't GW adjust their RRP in various territories, specifically because they claim to have been burned by these fluctuations in the past?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 00:23:23


Post by: Yodhrin


sand.zzz wrote:
 H.B.M.C. wrote:
Wonderwolf wrote:
As armchair marketing guy (e.g. no qualifications whatsoever), I can't help but think these campaigns would've created more excitement, if they'd come out at the start and said... "listen, we're doing a huge Blood Angels vs. Tyranids campaign for the next 3 months, kicking off with Space Hulk... here's a first story/mission booklet (White Dwarf, download, etc..) to get you started and tease the story". Add store-run campaigns, etc.., off you go.

Instead, not even store managers seemed to know before the boxes arrived.

Ultimately, I am a bit sad. Stormclaw and Space Hulk didn't seem to have gotten GW out of its funk, which I can only assume means these formats go back to the endangered species list of GW products, and I actually thought they were some of the cooler 40K products in a while.


I couldn't agree with this any more than I already do.

Time and time again GW fail to leverage the strengths of their own brand, choosing either the fire-and-forget methodology (no synergy with big video game releases, like DoW and WAR), or the FineCast Curtain of secrecy (the aforementioned store managers being left in the dark until the day the stock arrives). The company seems almost at odds with itself, with various groups within the company working against one another (even passively).

They could have made a big deal of Space Hulk, the Shield of Baal stuff, and the eventual Blood Angel codex. Instead they launched it on anyone without so much as a day's notice (other than leaks), and seemed more interested in foisting the new BA Tac Squad on us by changing the BA rules to remove Assault Squads as Troops than they were in creating a cohesive multi-month launch even to both raise awareness and get people involved/invested.

It's sad really. Two big campaign releases and they best they can show for it is a spike in sales for a month. Yippee.


If they put out a release schedule it affords people the opportunity of planning their purchases. If you know your army is getting two new kits and a new Codex six weeks from now, then youre less likely to start that 2000 point Tyranid army over the next couple weeks.


By the same token, if I know my army is getting two new kits and a new codex six weeks from now(or better yet, a few months notice), I'll still have my hobby budget to spend on them when they come out rather than having spent it with other companies or buying secondhand or OOP stuff on ebay. I'm not going to go into debt to buy plastic crack, so if I don't know what GW are going to be putting out in advance, the money I would have spent on their products goes elsewhere, and often by the time I get around to budgeting to buy that new thing that I could have been buying day-1 had I known about it has been out long enough that it's filtered down to the secondhand market, at which point why would I buy it from GW for three times the price?

We're constantly told by GW apologists that the online community are a tiny minority and nothing we do or say matters because most GW players just go to the store and joyfully empty their wallets onto the checkout counter, so how can said apologists also try to argue that allowing our tiny, insignificant group to know what's going on a few months in advance would irreparably damage GW's revenues?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 00:31:51


Post by: Azreal13


It's a double standard that gets repeatedly abused.

Given the number of unique hits Dakka gets, the 11500 people who signed that change.org petition and the tangible effect that GW have been displaying in their income, I think it's fair to say that that state of affairs no longer applies.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 01:16:18


Post by: Jehan-reznor


That means a price increase again and lots of "limited editions" coming soon, this good news!


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 01:21:00


Post by: warboss


You forgot fragmentation of the rules so they can sell you two books that have the combined utility your previous one had!


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 02:03:43


Post by: agnosto


 frozenwastes wrote:
The most interesting thing will be the exceptional expenses. Like how they spent 4 million on the new website. And even more on restructuring. Those type of expenses aren't supposed to recur. So has revenue dropped so much that profits dropped 1 million + all the exceptional expenses? Or do they have new exceptional expenses and flat revenue?


Exceptional expenses/gains are applies after operating profit is calculated so the 1 million loss has nothing to do with that.

They're attributing the recent loss to an exchange rate that actually did climb the first half of the year to a high of 1.71 in July but has now dropped to 1.56 as of today. If that's all that's bringing them down, the January report better look all unicorns and sunshine. More often than not, these fluctuations between the currencies of two fairly stable economies kind of come out in the wash. That much of a loss inevitably hits the bottom line and GW is a small enough company that it's going to skew the year's numbers if they didn't rebound with increased sales in the 2nd half. This wouldn't be an issue at all if sales volume weren't already slumping.

I'm withholding my doom and gloom until January.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 02:40:33


Post by: Theophony


 Jehan-reznor wrote:
That means a price increase again and lots of "limited editions" coming soon, this good news!


The new limited editions will be sooooo limited they won't even be printed they will be electronic sent throught the new GW patented world wide webway. I think they are trying to hunt down the web creators now to get those pesky IP papers signed.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 02:46:40


Post by: Breotan


 warboss wrote:
 Desubot wrote:
weeble1000 wrote:
pig thieves.

Exsqueese me?

Read the most recent yearly report. The CEO actually referred to the case he brought against chapterhouse in which they lost or dropped 3/4 of the claims as failing not because of their lack of legal standing and preparation but because the US legal system was made to address things like porcine theft.... seriously. Ironically, the pumbagore was not on the list of supposedly infringing models.

Profile rank updated.



GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 08:35:49


Post by: H.B.M.C.


Yeah, so, a friend of mine's Shield of Baal arrived today. It was inside that fancy Christmas box GW made (for whatever reason). And that box was inside yet another box for shipping purposes.

So a box within a box within a box.

And we wonder why their bottom line is getting hit with such efficient product practices!


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 09:20:15


Post by: Herzlos


weeble1000 wrote:
But the gbp hasn't really moved much against the dollar, at least not to an extent, so far as I understand, to justify GW's presumably poor profits.


It hasn't. Certainly not enough to cause a 10-15% drop in profits, when the majority of it's sales are still in the UK in GBP. It's presumably just an excuse for why overseas sales are down (and definitely not anything to do with the pricing, competition or trade embargoes, no siree).

 Yodhrin wrote:
By the same token, if I know my army is getting two new kits and a new codex six weeks from now(or better yet, a few months notice), I'll still have my hobby budget to spend on them when they come out rather than having spent it with other companies or buying secondhand or OOP stuff on ebay. I'm not going to go into debt to buy plastic crack, so if I don't know what GW are going to be putting out in advance, the money I would have spent on their products goes elsewhere, and often by the time I get around to budgeting to buy that new thing that I could have been buying day-1 had I known about it has been out long enough that it's filtered down to the secondhand market, at which point why would I buy it from GW for three times the price?


The GW strategy seems to rely on the customer not knowing anything else exists, or buying the new stuff anyway. I'm in the same boat though; I know about upcoming releases for my other games so money gets put aside for them.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 10:12:55


Post by: Barksdale


Ehsteve wrote:
 Las wrote:
Can economics folks explain this a little more for us laymen? Is it a result of declining profits or does it have to do with the strength of currency?

Simply put: when a product is more expensive, people buy less of it. When your currency is strong, it is more expensive for other countries to buy your products.

i.e. If a pen costs £10GBP at an exchange rate of £1GBP=$1.5USD, that means the pen costs someone in America $15USD

If that exchange rate shifts upwards to £1GBP=$1.7USD, that means the pen now costs $17USD. That's a 13.3% increase in price for the exact same product (independent of inflation over time). The US customer can only budget for the same amount each order, so you buy 13.3% less pens or worse yet, they look for other suppliers of these pens (either similar or the same).

Unless you retain the foreign currency and your own weakens, you cannot effectively make any real gain from strong currency. However it does make purchasing items from weaker currency more inviting.

So a lot of factors affect profit. Strong currency can be one of them. In this case it would be fairly marginal, so it's not the whole story. Then again you rarely get the whole story from any of these reports.


You are looking at it the wrong way. GW prices things in local currency. Changes in the exchange rate most often does not translate into an immediate change in prices. Using your example, the pen is priced at USD 15 and the initial exchange rate is GBP = USD1.5. So after a shift in FX rates to GBP = USD1.7, the price Stateside is still USD15. However, USD 15 at the new FX rate is only worth GBP 8.82 when that money is repatriated.

Anyway, the GBP/USD rate was over 1.7 in the middle of the 2014 and had been generally moving there since the beginning of 2013. Since July it has moved to about 1.55. Depending on how/when GW repatriates money I can see those rates having a big impact on their numbers That being said, I can also see a multitude of other reasons contributing to a decline.



GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 11:32:19


Post by: Bishop F Gantry


 H.B.M.C. wrote:
Yeah, so, a friend of mine's Shield of Baal arrived today. It was inside that fancy Christmas box GW made (for whatever reason). And that box was inside yet another box for shipping purposes.

So a box within a box within a box.

And we wonder why their bottom line is getting hit with such efficient product practices!


I wouldnt mind GW's high prices if everything in my codex was a viable choice, currently the quality or lack of quality of the rules is activly preventing me from expanding my Dark angels.


Whats in the box?

Boxception "BRHUUUM"

Our Blood angels hides in kardbard bawkses.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 12:31:04


Post by: The Division Of Joy


 ekwatts wrote:

Except that reporter is actually referring to Andrew Perloff, the chairman of Panther Securities and comparing him to Kirby.

I really don't see what any of these threads are really for, but weird porn for people who are obsessed with its imminent demise. GW do what they do and they sit right at the very top of the food chain. So what? They aren't really the same company they were in 1984, 1990, 1996 (thankfully) or 1999. So what? The whole gaming industry right now is in absolutely rude health from what I can see, and the internet has helped immeasurably. GW are simply too successful to fold; their profits are down a few million? Well, damn, they still appear to be making tens of millions more than many other companies. That does not spell imminent demise. And even though I'm not all that interested in GW miniatures anymore (though what I've seen the last few years actually looks pretty amazing, almost enough to tempt me back) their other products are brilliant, like the paints, brushes and quite alot of the terrain (the Citadel wood was the first GW model I'd bought in three years, and then I bought another four sets) so I'd be quite happy for them to stick around for another thirty years.


QFT, the first sentance is especially true on here


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 13:35:15


Post by: rexscarlet


Are GW UK and GW US separate?
How about GW and Citadel Miniatures, are they separate?
How about GW Retail Stores and GW Online Web-store, are they separate?
.
We have all seen the manipulations of the GW P&L, so nothing new, just quickly catching up with them.
.
Why I never bought GW penny Stock...
.
I bought 10k worth of this stock instead five years ago when it was at 11.5; https://www.google.com/search?q=pepco+stock&oq=pepco+stock&aqs=chrome..69i57.3507j0j7&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=122&ie=UTF-8


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 14:03:21


Post by: Herzlos


It's all the same company. They can probably hold money in a foreign currency though and the GBP value is just a calculation based on the current exchange rate.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 14:06:03


Post by: agnosto


 rexscarlet wrote:
Are GW UK and GW US separate?
How about GW and Citadel Miniatures, are they separate?
How about GW Retail Stores and GW Online Web-store, are they separate?
.
We have all seen the manipulations of the GW P&L, so nothing new, just quickly catching up with them.
.
Why I never bought GW penny Stock...
.
I bought 10k worth of this stock instead five years ago when it was at 11.5; https://www.google.com/search?q=pepco+stock&oq=pepco+stock&aqs=chrome..69i57.3507j0j7&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=122&ie=UTF-8


They're not separately listed on the exchanges; I bought some GW stock years ago, sold in January for a tidy profit while it was sliding, and had to convert my Dollars to GBP.

Nice find with Pepco; I bought Citibank at a $1 when the recession caused it to tank; granted there's been a reverse stock split since but I'm happy with where they are.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 14:52:05


Post by: rexscarlet


Nice find with Pepco; I bought Citibank at a $1 when the recession caused it to tank; granted there's been a reverse stock split since but I'm happy with where they are.


Yep, similar with Telephone de Mexico, split, then changed to cellular, etc.
.
Take a gander at boxes; http://collector-info.com/Manufacturer.html
High Elves are the most complete on site; GW and Citadel...


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 16:16:32


Post by: notprop


 agnosto wrote:
 rexscarlet wrote:
Are GW UK and GW US separate?
How about GW and Citadel Miniatures, are they separate?
How about GW Retail Stores and GW Online Web-store, are they separate?
.
We have all seen the manipulations of the GW P&L, so nothing new, just quickly catching up with them.
.
Why I never bought GW penny Stock...
.
I bought 10k worth of this stock instead five years ago when it was at 11.5; https://www.google.com/search?q=pepco+stock&oq=pepco+stock&aqs=chrome..69i57.3507j0j7&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=122&ie=UTF-8


They're not separately listed on the exchanges; I bought some GW stock years ago, sold in January for a tidy profit while it was sliding, and had to convert my Dollars to GBP.

Nice find with Pepco; I bought Citibank at a $1 when the recession caused it to tank; granted there's been a reverse stock split since but I'm happy with where they are.


GW only Trades as a whole on the UK exchange. They do however have a number of registered entities including GWUS and GWUS (Holdings) that are still current and un-dissolved all trading under the UK umbrella.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 16:32:04


Post by: zlayer77


GW needs to change things or the next half year report will show an even bigger loss in sales.. One of the things that have stayed constant the last few years is the declne in sales.. And I dont get why people are still trying to defend and justify the direction this is going in..

I watched a movie a few days ago its called the "Big Fan". And sadly I think some of you are acting just like the main protagonist. The Company you love has beaten you over the head, but still you cant stop cheering for it.. At this point it is just starting to get sad.. Stop being victims and stop buying GW miniatures, the Rules are abysmal, the companies polices toward their customers are abysmal... Stop making excuses for GW please..


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 16:33:52


Post by: TheAuldGrump


 Breotan wrote:
 warboss wrote:
 Desubot wrote:
weeble1000 wrote:
pig thieves.

Exsqueese me?

Read the most recent yearly report. The CEO actually referred to the case he brought against chapterhouse in which they lost or dropped 3/4 of the claims as failing not because of their lack of legal standing and preparation but because the US legal system was made to address things like porcine theft.... seriously. Ironically, the pumbagore was not on the list of supposedly infringing models.

Profile rank updated.

There's a miniature for that....


The Auld Grump


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 16:39:57


Post by: Azreal13


 zlayer77 wrote:
GW needs to change things or the next half year report will show an even bigger loss in sales.. One of the things that have stayed constant the last few years is the declne in sales.. And I dont get why people are still trying to defend and justify the direction this is going in..

I watched a movie a few days ago its called the "Big Fan". And sadly I think some of you are acting just like the main protagonist. The Company you love has beaten you over the head, but still you cant stop cheering for it.. At this point it is just starting to get sad.. Stop being victims and stop buying GW miniatures, the Rules are abysmal, the companies polices toward their customers are abysmal... Stop making excuses for GW please..


In fairness, we do not know at this point that there has been a drop in sales, I'd agree that it's likely, but there are plenty of scenarios where profit could be impacted where sales (revenue) are not.

I also agree that I find it baffling that people still seem so loyal to GW in spite of everything, they often appear to be the very "grateful goobers fawning over the latest jewel like releases" or however it was phrased, but if someone is, somehow, happy with their relationship with GW then we can't demand they stop buying, all we can do is try and show them reasons to stop and hope they agree.

It appears the plenty of people are coming around to this way of thinking by themselves, thankfully, so all we have to do now is hope GW respond in the right way to reinvigorate people's interest and start growing the game and the company again.



GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 17:06:22


Post by: dusara217


 zlayer77 wrote:
GW needs to change things or the next half year report will show an even bigger loss in sales.. One of the things that have stayed constant the last few years is the declne in sales.. And I dont get why people are still trying to defend and justify the direction this is going in..

I watched a movie a few days ago its called the "Big Fan". And sadly I think some of you are acting just like the main protagonist. The Company you love has beaten you over the head, but still you cant stop cheering for it.. At this point it is just starting to get sad.. Stop being victims and stop buying GW miniatures, the Rules are abysmal, the companies polices toward their customers are abysmal... Stop making excuses for GW please..

I just hope that GW gets its head out of its ass and actually starts doing some research into what people want. What they could do is endorse a specific website that has forums on GW's games like 40k and WHFB, have the website pay them x amount of money for the endorsement, then just take polls and the like and have people read some of what the people actually want GW to do.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 17:40:20


Post by: sourclams


Just tossing this out there as a thought, it really is GW's model that is the source of their problem. The games miniature wargaming MODEL space is becoming increasingly crowded and also increasingly commoditized.

Making models is no longer special. In some respects, making models is a pain in the rear necessary-evil that a company must go through in order to sell their IP -- the game rules -- that draw gamers in.

I'm not saying that there is no demand for models, but given the roaring success of the whole Attack Wing/prepainted figs and the 'gray armies' that still dominate a lot of local gaming tables, the incremental growth is much moreso coming from those who have interest in games and models are a byproduct of that sphere rather than the other way around, which is what GW caters to.

I would not say that GW is necessarily overpriced on a model by model basis. They're always at the high end, but if I had real interest in a Knight Titan I'd be able to own one no problem.

The quality of the game experience, though, combined with veyr large and pricey armies and the terrible rules churn that rewrites or invalidates entire existing armies, and far more competition in the whole skirmish and tabletop format generally have simply exceeded the inherent demand for GW models.

So sales and margin figures are responding exactly as one would suppose when production of a commodity good increases (even if GW merch is a 'premium' commodity good). The whole problem is this fixation on being a model company, not a gaming company. Which goes back to the whole 'know your customer' and 'market research' topics.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 17:49:29


Post by: agnosto


 Azreal13 wrote:

In fairness, we do not know at this point that there has been a drop in sales, I'd agree that it's likely, but there are plenty of scenarios where profit could be impacted where sales (revenue) are not.

It appears the plenty of people are coming around to this way of thinking by themselves, thankfully, so all we have to do now is hope GW respond in the right way to reinvigorate people's interest and start growing the game and the company again.



But we do know that volume was down over last 2-3 reports so it's a safe assumption that the trend is continuing since their operating profit is 1 million pounds lower than the previous year and an actual increase in volume would have off-set, in whole or part, the loss caused by the fluctuations in currency.

I'd argue that they are trying to grow the game and company with the very rapid release schedule we've seen this year. The problem that I see from my comfortable position on the couch is that since they don't communicate in any meaningful way with their market, they are just throwing bad after bad instead of actually making improvements in their major products or, heaven forbid, diversifying their product range to attract a wider customer base.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 17:58:35


Post by: Hulksmash


I will say their Campaign stuff (Baal and End Times) have both been excellent. So have the "booster starters" that they've released for 40k. I think we'll see how it goes but they are tying things together in a cohesive strategy that does, in a way, tell you what releases look like for the next 1-2 months.

That said telling people that they should stop buying something they enjoy because they are being treated poorly is a bit much. It is subjective. And I'd say that they've done a ton of good stuff over the last 6 months since that poor report. But that's also subjective

Either way I'm looking forward to the specifics of the report. It's always interesting once I filter out the colorful posters and read the more professional/reasonable posts about them since I'm not a financial guy.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 18:07:34


Post by: Azreal13


 agnosto wrote:
 Azreal13 wrote:

In fairness, we do not know at this point that there has been a drop in sales, I'd agree that it's likely, but there are plenty of scenarios where profit could be impacted where sales (revenue) are not.

It appears the plenty of people are coming around to this way of thinking by themselves, thankfully, so all we have to do now is hope GW respond in the right way to reinvigorate people's interest and start growing the game and the company again.



But we do know that volume was down over last 2-3 reports so it's a safe assumption that the trend is continuing since their operating profit is 1 million pounds lower than the previous year and an actual increase in volume would have off-set, in whole or part, the loss caused by the fluctuations in currency.


Agreed, like I said, I think it likely, but a drop in profits is no guarantee of a drop in revenue.


I'd argue that they are trying to grow the game and company with the very rapid release schedule we've seen this year. The problem that I see from my comfortable position on the couch is that since they don't communicate in any meaningful way with their market, they are just throwing bad after bad instead of actually making improvements in their major products or, heaven forbid, diversifying their product range to attract a wider customer base.


Yep, can't argue with that. I would also add that such a rapid release schedule, coupled with the fragmented rules + supplements + dataslates, whiles stocks last and limited edition bullcrap is fatiguing their customer base. When I sold cellphones we had an informal "rule of three," I've no idea whether it's a proper thing or just something made up by one of my former managers, but the theory was that if you presented a customer with more than three choices then they would begin to become increasingly overwhelmed with choice and start to become indecisive, which would frequently lead to non committal. I think GW are in danger of breaking the spirit of this idea, if not the strict letter of it.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 19:01:14


Post by: frozenwastes


Azreal13 wrote:
Agreed, like I said, I think it likely, but a drop in profits is no guarantee of a drop in revenue.


If their profits dropped but their revenue didn't, that means that all the exceptional expenses that were meant to restructure things and save them money in the operation of their business was for nothing. It means it saved them nothing. At this point they should really be benefiting by a lower cost of doing business after cutting so much.

A drop in revenue is at least reversible with a new sales strategy or by opening up retail locations in new areas, but if they spent millions restructuring just to have it not save them anything... that's a much, much bigger problem. It means they closed the national GW HQs, changed so many stores over to single employee operations, cut out all the middle management, centralized trade sales in the UK, outsourced staff recruitment and somehow still operate at a cost as if they didn't do any of that. That would be very, very bad.

What I think will end up being the case is that their restructuring worked and their costs will be much lower but revenue will have dropped as well and the end result will be a drop in earnings per share roughly equivalent to their drop in dividends per share (20p down to 16p).





GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 19:42:48


Post by: OrlandotheTechnicoloured


GW is (starting) to do a lot of the things the internet was asking for

1) speeding up releases; well it had been asked for again and again, but now they are actually doing it people are saying it's too fast, they can't keep up/understand all the new rules/meta etc

2) Move things on: The fantasy End Times stuff is making major changes to that world, this is going down pretty well, and hopefully it will stick (finding out it is all a 'dream' and 9th returns to the status quo will be a big disappointment)

3) stop the annual price increases, well they did that and people are now complaining about specific price increases...

4) reduce prices, they've actually given significant reductions in some of the recent box sets, hopefully it continues

5) balance the codexes, well this actually seems to be happening with most of the new ones, but it is upsetting existing players as their army of choice no longer works like it used to



GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 19:47:18


Post by: Kilkrazy


Herzlos wrote:
It's all the same company. They can probably hold money in a foreign currency though and the GBP value is just a calculation based on the current exchange rate.


GW of course have holdings and operations in the USA so they take money in local currency and can use that to pay for local expenses. However, at the end of the financial year they need to value any US currency holdings in GBP because that is their reporting currency.

The problem for GW is that having closed down their US based manufacturing, all of the stock needs to be imported from the UK and paid for in USD. When the exchange rate goes against them that can be a bad thing.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 19:57:47


Post by: Desubot


 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
GW is (starting) to do a lot of the things the internet was asking for

1) speeding up releases; well it had been asked for again and again, but now they are actually doing it people are saying it's too fast, they can't keep up/understand all the new rules/meta etc

2) Move things on: The fantasy End Times stuff is making major changes to that world, this is going down pretty well, and hopefully it will stick (finding out it is all a 'dream' and 9th returns to the status quo will be a big disappointment)

3) stop the annual price increases, well they did that and people are now complaining about specific price increases...

4) reduce prices, they've actually given significant reductions in some of the recent box sets, hopefully it continues

5) balance the codexes, well this actually seems to be happening with most of the new ones, but it is upsetting existing players as their army of choice no longer works like it used to




1) i dont think iv ever read anyone saying its too fast
4) Usually those box sets that do give discounts tend to be for things they dont really need. who really wants more tactical terminators or a sentinel.

The rest are peachy.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 20:10:21


Post by: Kilkrazy


The Internet is not a monolithic hive mind and has asked for a lot of things, some of them contradictory.

Clearly GW's job is to chart the optimum course between the Scylla and Charybdis of opposing Internet opinions.

If the mid-year report shows a significant decline that cannot be accounted for by currency fluctuation, it will be an indication that GW as in the previous couple of years, have failed to achieve this feat of navigation.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 20:11:33


Post by: MWHistorian


 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
GW is (starting) to do a lot of the things the internet was asking for

1) speeding up releases; well it had been asked for again and again, but now they are actually doing it people are saying it's too fast, they can't keep up/understand all the new rules/meta etc

2) Move things on: The fantasy End Times stuff is making major changes to that world, this is going down pretty well, and hopefully it will stick (finding out it is all a 'dream' and 9th returns to the status quo will be a big disappointment)

3) stop the annual price increases, well they did that and people are now complaining about specific price increases...

4) reduce prices, they've actually given significant reductions in some of the recent box sets, hopefully it continues

5) balance the codexes, well this actually seems to be happening with most of the new ones, but it is upsetting existing players as their army of choice no longer works like it used to


But the problem is the execution of these things.
1. Yes, the codex release is faster. (good) But the dexes are coming out feeling rushed and sub-par. Regurgitated fluff and art and nothing really new that isn't ill-concieved or just plain ugly. (Taurox, Logan Clause, Centurions) Most people would rather wait just a bit longer for a product that doesn't feel rushed and half-measured.
2. Okay, End times is actually really cool and I hope 40k gets something similar.
3. Price increases are still price increases and stuff is expensive enough as is.
4. But then the box sets are only limited edition and no forwarning so if you don't get them as they come out, they're gone. (though a few permanent ones offer discount and they need to expand on that idea, aka one-click-bundles should save $$$ as well.)
5. The dexes are getting better in this regard, but they're also getting boring. The biggest and most common complaint about new dexes are that they're removing the flavor of the armies and taking away what made them special. There's no more excitement about getting a new dex and feels more like going to a reaping in District 12. You wonder who will be taken and what you'll be left with.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 20:20:32


Post by: Xca|iber


 MWHistorian wrote:

5. The dexes are getting better in this regard, but they're also getting boring. The biggest and most common complaint about new dexes are that they're removing the flavor of the armies and taking away what made them special. There's no more excitement about getting a new dex and feels more like going to a reaping in District 12. You wonder who will be taken and what you'll be left with.


Indeed, it is this behavior that gives ammunition to the silly arguments that "balance=no options". The real balance (or close to it) that many of us want does not have to equal bland mediocrity. Yet the way GW seems to try it I don't really blame people for being "anti-balance" when there is every indication that asking for it WILL result in bland, tasteless codices.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 20:38:43


Post by: agnosto


 Azreal13 wrote:

Yep, can't argue with that. I would also add that such a rapid release schedule, coupled with the fragmented rules + supplements + dataslates, whiles stocks last and limited edition bullcrap is fatiguing their customer base. When I sold cellphones we had an informal "rule of three," I've no idea whether it's a proper thing or just something made up by one of my former managers, but the theory was that if you presented a customer with more than three choices then they would begin to become increasingly overwhelmed with choice and start to become indecisive, which would frequently lead to non committal. I think GW are in danger of breaking the spirit of this idea, if not the strict letter of it.


Agreed on all points. I think that they've essentially gone from one end of the spectrum to the other; moving from a monolithically slow release schedule that left many armies languishing in ineffective obscurity for entire editions of the rules. I've just stopped paying attention to releases; I think I'll check back next May when they're on END TIMES BOOK XIX!!!


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 20:54:20


Post by: Kilkrazy


I have to admit I feel the same. As well as having been PO'd by the high prices and shambles the rules had become, I now feel if I ever wanted to get back into the game I would have to revise my concept and collection every 20 minutes when GW release a new piece of crap.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 20:58:11


Post by: Azreal13


 frozenwastes wrote:
Azreal13 wrote:
Agreed, like I said, I think it likely, but a drop in profits is no guarantee of a drop in revenue.


If their profits dropped but their revenue didn't, that means that all the exceptional expenses that were meant to restructure things and save them money in the operation of their business was for nothing. It means it saved them nothing. At this point they should really be benefiting by a lower cost of doing business after cutting so much.

A drop in revenue is at least reversible with a new sales strategy or by opening up retail locations in new areas, but if they spent millions restructuring just to have it not save them anything... that's a much, much bigger problem. It means they closed the national GW HQs, changed so many stores over to single employee operations, cut out all the middle management, centralized trade sales in the UK, outsourced staff recruitment and somehow still operate at a cost as if they didn't do any of that. That would be very, very bad.

What I think will end up being the case is that their restructuring worked and their costs will be much lower but revenue will have dropped as well and the end result will be a drop in earnings per share roughly equivalent to their drop in dividends per share (20p down to 16p).





Possibly. But there's also the possibility that there's been some sort of unexpected expense (they've paid the lawyers bill for the CHS case? ) and all those economies have actually prevented them from posting a loss.

With only this one piece of information (that profits are down £1m YOY) there are too many other variables in play to make any statements with any degree of certainty. I certainly think that, on the balance of probability, the most likely scenario is revenue is down again, profits are down again and the exchange rate excuse is just about plausible enough for them to cover their arses. Without several other key pieces of information though, it's purely speculation at this point.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 21:12:36


Post by: H.B.M.C.


 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
GW is (starting) to do a lot of the things the internet was asking for

1) speeding up releases; well it had been asked for again and again, but now they are actually doing it people are saying it's too fast, they can't keep up/understand all the new rules/meta etc

2) Move things on: The fantasy End Times stuff is making major changes to that world, this is going down pretty well, and hopefully it will stick (finding out it is all a 'dream' and 9th returns to the status quo will be a big disappointment)

3) stop the annual price increases, well they did that and people are now complaining about specific price increases...

4) reduce prices, they've actually given significant reductions in some of the recent box sets, hopefully it continues

5) balance the codexes, well this actually seems to be happening with most of the new ones, but it is upsetting existing players as their army of choice no longer works like it used to


I didn't know the colour of disingenuousness was "technicolour".

1). For the most part they've just taken a month's worth of releases and spread them across multiple weeks. So it appears faster more than it is faster. Yet there has been an acceleration of the time between each Codex release, which is nice. People are complaining though about all the DLC bull gak, with datasheets and whatnot out the wazoo. That's not the same thing as complaining that the release is faster/can't keep up with the meta. A lot of people don't give two gaks about the meta.

2). Yes. The End Times have been a resounding success. It remains to be seen whether this newfound spark of energy will last or if GW will see that there is a market for change in the narrative.

3). They stopped doing across-the-board price increases, so now just increase the prices with each release. How is that better? And why shouldn't people complain?

4). Yeah no. They've made a few metal/FineCost things into plastic kits, and that always reduced the price. They haven't been "reducing prices".

5). I don't want to comment on this, but given that GW releases two editions of 40K within 2 years of one another, and responces to Codices that seem more interested in cutting things and reducing options, I dunno if this newfound trend of "balance" (if that's really what it is) is a good thing.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 21:21:28


Post by: agnosto


 Azreal13 wrote:


Possibly. But there's also the possibility that there's been some sort of unexpected expense (they've paid the lawyers bill for the CHS case? ) and all those economies have actually prevented them from posting a loss.

With only this one piece of information (that profits are down £1m YOY) there are too many other variables in play to make any statements with any degree of certainty. I certainly think that, on the balance of probability, the most likely scenario is revenue is down again, profits are down again and the exchange rate excuse is just about plausible enough for them to cover their arses. Without several other key pieces of information though, it's purely speculation at this point.


It depends if the attorney's fees are an extraordinary (rare) expense or not; if it's extraordinary, it'll be taken out after calculating operating profits.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 21:25:48


Post by: plastictrees


 H.B.M.C. wrote:


I didn't know the colour of disingenuousness was "technicolour".

1). For the most part they've just taken a month's worth of releases and spread them across multiple weeks. So it appears faster more than it is faster. Yet there has been an acceleration of the time between each Codex release, which is nice. People are complaining though about all the DLC bull gak, with datasheets and whatnot out the wazoo. That's not the same thing as complaining that the release is faster/can't keep up with the meta. A lot of people don't give two gaks about the meta.

2). Yes. The End Times have been a resounding success. It remains to be seen whether this newfound spark of energy will last or if GW will see that there is a market for change in the narrative.

3). They stopped doing across-the-board price increases, so now just increase the prices with each release. How is that better? And why shouldn't people complain?

4). Yeah no. They've made a few metal/FineCost things into plastic kits, and that always reduced the price. They haven't been "reducing prices".

5). I don't want to comment on this, but given that GW releases two editions of 40K within 2 years of one another, and responces to Codices that seem more interested in cutting things and reducing options, I dunno if this newfound trend of "balance" (if that's really what it is) is a good thing.


I guess sometimes a quip is too juicy to use even if it doesn't make any sense at all.

1) Prior to this edition Tyranids wouldn't have received any new models until their new book came out. That's a big change and could reasonably fall in the acceleration of releases category.
You seem to begrudgingly agree that books are (obviously) coming out quicker. Most people want to have up to date rules for their army.

4) Multiple box sets have been significant discounts over retail for the individual minis. That counts even if it isn't the across the board decrease that you want.

5) I'm enjoying the Ork, Nid, and AM (sigh) books a lot.. I can safely say that this edition has brought me back to 40k, and I'm excited to work on multiple new armies for the first time in 6-8 years.

Sometimes people genuinely disagree with you without white knighting or trolling. Maybe you've been spinning for too long.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 21:36:05


Post by: OrlandotheTechnicoloured


3. I think no across the board, yearly, significantly above inflation price rises is a great thing,

I'd much rather new kits cost more (to reflect the fact they cost money to design & make) and everything else stay about the same price

4. Baby steps,

even limited the new box sets gave a genuinely good discount to those that could get them (and those that couldn't may still benefit as some of the stuff leaks onto ebay where they will reduce, even if only temporarily, the price of those individual minis).

I'd love to see more and I'd love to see permanently available bundles (even if only the older stuff that isn't selling well any more) but I'll take what I can get

I'm not pretending that GW is all sunshine and flowers, but I'll celebrate the hints that they might (and it's only might) be starting to reign in some of their idiocy on price rises, power creep and so on. I may well end up disappointed, but it's slightly more fun to be hopeful


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 21:41:38


Post by: RiTides


Plastictrees - Yes, but the problem is, a lot of these things had bad that was in close-to-equal measure with the good!

- End Times is awesome, but they only offered hardback editions which sold out nearly immediately! Meaning that people had cooled on them by the time they were available to actually buy. Also, it's Very expensive to buy all these books, particularly in hardback!

- The tyranids release is awesome, but undercut by their still being so secretive about releases. Also, while army updates are a good thing, with a new edition out less than 2 years from the last, armies are being invalidated faster than ever.

I agree that GW has made a few positive adjustments, but unfortunately (to me) they've come with drawbacks in nearly equal measure. 7th edition made my Tyranid build obsolete, and a new set of models to make them relevant again is great... if I hadn't already made a whole army less than 2 years into 6th edition only to have it made nearly useless right away (specifically with anything being able to claim an objective, making the utility of a gaunt swarm even less than it already was).



GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 22:05:20


Post by: plastictrees


I certainly appreciate that I get to avoid a lot of the negatives by coming in fresh as I sold my last 40k army about 6 years ago.

The secrecy is definitely an issue. How often should we expect a new edition now? Should we expect army updates in the vein of the recent Tyranid release to be the norm?
I'm choosing to be recklessly positive about directions I like without knowing if they are long term trends or not.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 22:27:11


Post by: AegisGrimm


GW profits are down? Hmm, maybe they should try raising prices to compensate.............

If only they could just sell more $30US plastic apothecaries.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/09 22:36:48


Post by: plastictrees


I'm buying 10 instead of making my usual end of year charity donations.
We're here for you GW!!


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 00:23:35


Post by: Thud


 Azreal13 wrote:
Yep, can't argue with that. I would also add that such a rapid release schedule, coupled with the fragmented rules + supplements + dataslates, whiles stocks last and limited edition bullcrap is fatiguing their customer base. When I sold cellphones we had an informal "rule of three," I've no idea whether it's a proper thing or just something made up by one of my former managers, but the theory was that if you presented a customer with more than three choices then they would begin to become increasingly overwhelmed with choice and start to become indecisive, which would frequently lead to non committal. I think GW are in danger of breaking the spirit of this idea, if not the strict letter of it.


Yep, that's an actual thing. Here is a TED talk by Malcolm Gladwell on the topic, and here is a book on it.



GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 01:56:07


Post by: Yodhrin


 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
GW is (starting) to do a lot of the things the internet was asking for

1) speeding up releases; well it had been asked for again and again, but now they are actually doing it people are saying it's too fast, they can't keep up/understand all the new rules/meta etc


You're conflating multiple issues. People wanted certain armies to be updated more frequently, because they were suffering compared to those that were updated often. People are complaining about not being able to keep up because GW have been releasing dataslates and scenarios and supplements and limited-edition campaign books, in many cases by stripping content out of codexes to be sold back at a premium, so often and with so little regard for people's ability to actually acquire them(they go OOP, or are Apple-device exclusive etc) that it's actually become a chore to follow what's available, where to get it from, and how it slots into the core game.

2) Move things on: The fantasy End Times stuff is making major changes to that world, this is going down pretty well, and hopefully it will stick (finding out it is all a 'dream' and 9th returns to the status quo will be a big disappointment)


Some people asked for things to be moved on. Some people are happy with the major changes of the End Times. Plenty of us were happy with the idea of WHF and 40K as settings rather than stories, and End Times has put me off Fantasy completely. If I were religious I'd be praying for another bout of collective amnesia in the design studio, them pulling a Storm of Chaos 2: Storm Harder is about the only thing that would draw me back in.

3) stop the annual price increases, well they did that and people are now complaining about specific price increases...


Yes, because the prices are still increasing. I don't see what's hard about this one, people didn't want them to stop the annual price increases because they had some bizarre prejudice against the Gregorian Calendar, they wanted them to stop because the models are already too expensive. Continuing to make them more expensive, just in smaller groups, doesn't address that objection...

4) reduce prices, they've actually given significant reductions in some of the recent box sets, hopefully it continues


They have, and they've been praised for it by even the most cynical of bittervets, so how does this relate to your implication that people are impossible to please?

5) balance the codexes, well this actually seems to be happening with most of the new ones, but it is upsetting existing players as their army of choice no longer works like it used to


And we're back to the core problem with your argument; the community is not a hivemind. Some people can want balance, others can think things are fine. Individual people can want balance in a general sense, and still disagree with the way a particular codex has been changed in pursuit of balance.

It remains to be seen if GW's new direction(which to be frank, is essentially "do the same thing, but faster") will do anything for them, but people need to stop with this "some people said they wanted something and GW did something vaguely approximating it, why are entirely different people still moaning?" nonsense.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 02:01:36


Post by: H.B.M.C.


 Yodhrin wrote:
You're conflating multiple issues.


Conflating! That's the word. Far less aggressive than my comments about disingenuousness-ness.

 Yodhrin wrote:
Storm of Chaos 2: Storm Harder is about the only thing that would draw me back in.


If they called it that they might draw me in.

 Yodhrin wrote:
... people didn't want them to stop the annual price increases because they had some bizarre prejudice against the Gregorian Calendar...


Fantastic! If I was the kind of person that did this, that would go into my sig!




GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 06:25:27


Post by: Toofast


Exchange rate, huh? I guess the drop in profit has nothing to do with the drop in revenue they created by pissing off half of their customer base. If I were an investor, I would be offended at their estimation of my intelligence. They've cut costs, released more stuff at higher prices and their profit still went down. How will they excuse it away in the end of year report when revenue and profit are down yet again? According to Kirby's preamble in the last report, they had cut costs in order to ensure the long term profitability of the company and their profit was down because of a £4m Web store. I'm aware that we can't say revenue was down for sure based only on profit but I would bet a fair amount of money on that being the case. The white knights will have a hard time explaining this one.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 07:12:24


Post by: Runic


 Azreal13 wrote:

I also agree that I find it baffling that people still seem so loyal to GW in spite of everything, they often appear to be the very "grateful goobers fawning over the latest jewel like releases" or however it was phrased, but if someone is, somehow, happy with their relationship with GW then we can't demand they stop buying, all we can do is try and show them reasons to stop and hope they agree.


So you are, in fact, trying to spread the negative way of thinking?

Is this for a "good" ( heavily debatable... ) cause like trying to force GW to change their ways, or for some other reason entirely?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 07:13:22


Post by: H.B.M.C.


You continue to confuse "criticism" with "hatred". You should stop doing that.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 07:18:33


Post by: Runic


 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
GW is (starting) to do a lot of the things the internet was asking for

1) speeding up releases; well it had been asked for again and again, but now they are actually doing it people are saying it's too fast, they can't keep up/understand all the new rules/meta etc

2) Move things on: The fantasy End Times stuff is making major changes to that world, this is going down pretty well, and hopefully it will stick (finding out it is all a 'dream' and 9th returns to the status quo will be a big disappointment)

3) stop the annual price increases, well they did that and people are now complaining about specific price increases...

4) reduce prices, they've actually given significant reductions in some of the recent box sets, hopefully it continues

5) balance the codexes, well this actually seems to be happening with most of the new ones, but it is upsetting existing players as their army of choice no longer works like it used to



Didn´t you know that the code of conduct for some is to ignore/forget all the good things GW does, dismiss them doing what was asked for completely, and increased sales and good results being just a fluke?

I agree with all of your 5 points, and they are true. However, I guess some people just like complaining/are really so biased they can´t see these things and therefore they will merely dismiss stuff like speeding up codex releases and balancing them, which is what has indeed happened compared to previous editions, factually and undeniably, and they were both asked for.

 H.B.M.C. wrote:
You continue to confuse "criticism" with "hatred". You should stop doing that.


Changed. Although, for some, it´s exactly that judging by their posts.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 07:21:39


Post by: Crimson Devil


And what proof do you have that shows these things were in fact done for us?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 07:25:23


Post by: H.B.M.C.


 RunicFIN wrote:
Changed.


No you didn't. Criticism =/= "Negative Way of Thinking".

But nice try. May your armour forever gleam in the morning sun!


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 07:25:54


Post by: Runic


 Crimson Devil wrote:
And what proof do you have that shows these things were in fact done for us?


Did you just ask for proof regarding if codices are more balanced than before, and if they were being released faster than before?

Seems to be this "let´s ask proof for obvious things/things you can realize by using common sense." is some cool new game. I won´t play, because it´s ridicilous and childish. If you won´t believe the abovementioned things have happened without some sort of "evidence" then don´t, I don´t mind. I can still state them and they will still be true all the same even if someone refuses to accept that.

 H.B.M.C. wrote:
 RunicFIN wrote:
Changed.


No you didn't. Criticism =/= "Negative Way of Thinking".

But nice try. May your armour forever gleam in the morning sun!


Subjective, and in this case negative way of thinking is dead on. But whatever. May yours be as dark as the night for all eternity, making even tar appear white.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 07:31:09


Post by: frozenwastes


So even if we accept that all these things have been done by GW and that they are all great, why do you think they haven't returned to growth? They've done their restructuring. They've got their margins as protected as possible.

So what's with the falling profits? Is it just that the word hasn't gotten out about how things are better now? And if GW doesn't really do any advertising or marketing, how will they take advantage of word of mouth advertising when their player base has been reduced over the last decade? Will they have to open more stores to get more new recruits who can then go out and tell people that everyone is wonderful and fine?

Why is revenue, profits and dividends all sort of flat and trending downward if everything is better now?



GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 07:32:52


Post by: Crimson Devil


I'm not disputing the existence, but the reason. You said GW has done these things FOR the customer base. I'm asking you to prove that assertion.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 07:41:35


Post by: Torga_DW


 RunicFIN wrote:
 Crimson Devil wrote:
And what proof do you have that shows these things were in fact done for us?


Did you just ask for proof regarding if codices are more balanced than before, and if they were being released faster than before?

Seems to be this "let´s ask proof for obvious things/things you can realize by using common sense." is some cool new game. I won´t play, because it´s ridicilous and childish. If you won´t believe the abovementioned things have happened without some sort of "evidence" then don´t, I don´t mind. I can still state them and they will still be true all the same even if someone refuses to accept that.


No, he asked for proof that what was being done was for the benefit of the customers and not just games workshop.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 07:43:16


Post by: Runic


 Crimson Devil wrote:
I'm not disputing the existence, but the reason. You said GW has done these things FOR the customer base. I'm asking you to prove that assertion.


Very well, to be honest I was a bit surprised as your message didn´t make this initially clear, as usually you don´t result to the "give us proof that GW starts with a G" -nonsense. Obviously I can´t concretically prove it, but seeing how accurately what they are doing resembles what has been asked for in the past I´d say it´s quite obvious. Alternatively, we can go with the GW is evil and does nothing for anyone -route but I won´t be joining in.

No one can concretically prove they are not doing it for the customer base in the end, either. Inb4 someone goes "burden of proof mew mew mew mew" -yeah, have fun playing your games alone.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 07:49:55


Post by: Crimson Devil


I don't believe GW is evil, just deliberately blind. So I don't feel praise is deserved simply because their recent actions have momentarily aligned with my interests.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 07:49:57


Post by: Baragash


 Yodhrin wrote:
Some people asked for things to be moved on. Some people are happy with the major changes of the End Times. Plenty of us were happy with the idea of WHF and 40K as settings rather than stories, and End Times has put me off Fantasy completely. If I were religious I'd be praying for another bout of collective amnesia in the design studio, them pulling a Storm of Chaos 2: Storm Harder is about the only thing that would draw me back in.


Exalted. If the net result is that 6 months down the road the WHW (fictional, not to be confused with the shop!) I got into 21 years ago is gone, that's a whole lot of space I'll be freeing up at home. It's not even that I don't like the End Times fluff, it's just not a world I'm interested in playing in.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 08:29:29


Post by: Tech Guard


 Las wrote:
Can economics folks explain this a little more for us laymen? Is it a result of declining profits or does it have to do with the strength of currency?


Strictly speaking the fluctuations in global currencies would not have caused a decrease in profits of the magnitude seen. Share prices across the board for exporters in England would fall if this was the case and by a similar deviation as well. I don't have the data on me at the moment, but I can almost guarantee that this was not the case. Suffice to say, the fall in profits is probably, in part, more due to something within the company than from currency fluctuations. TLDR, share prices says no to the currency argument used by GW.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 08:34:37


Post by: Torga_DW


 RunicFIN wrote:
 Crimson Devil wrote:
I'm not disputing the existence, but the reason. You said GW has done these things FOR the customer base. I'm asking you to prove that assertion.


Very well, to be honest I was a bit surprised as your message didn´t make this initially clear, as usually you don´t result to the "give us proof that GW starts with a G" -nonsense. Obviously I can´t concretically prove it, but seeing how accurately what they are doing resembles what has been asked for in the past I´d say it´s quite obvious. Alternatively, we can go with the GW is evil and does nothing for anyone -route but I won´t be joining in.

No one can concretically prove they are not doing it for the customer base in the end, either. Inb4 someone goes "burden of proof mew mew mew mew" -yeah, have fun playing your games alone.


Out of interest, what point in the past are you refering to? Just given that it took them a decade to produce more daemon engines, am genuinely curious what era might have spawned this.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 08:35:01


Post by: techsoldaten


What I wonder about the financials is how much issues with profitability are related to the quality of Codex releases, and whether or not this is something you can actually observe on eBay and other places on the Internet.

Case in point: after the Ork Codex release, I noticed an uptick of people selling Ork armies. While I realize the models are expendable on the tabletop, what surprised me was the amount people were willing to let them go for. I was able to make deals to buy armies at an average cost per model of between $2 - $3.

Admittedly, my sample size was small, I advertised on Dakka and other forums that I was willing to buy Ork armies and had 11 people get back to me in a 1 week period following the Ork codex release. To come up with fair prices, I looked at armies that were available on eBay, and recent sales were coming in around this range as well. I was able to buy a pretty robust Ork army for about $420 that includes around 180 models, and I did pay for individual NIB models such as Battlewagons and Lootas. But I did get a Ghazghkull Thraka and FW bikers as part of bundles where the cost was around $2 per model, which was nice for me.

I don't want to pretend this anecdote means more than what it does (if anything, it means deals can be had in the secondary market), but it got me thinking about how GW uses supplements and things like Imperial Armor. New model releases are a big part of how GW makes it's money. If there's a relationship between the market demand for new models and the quality of the rules, these other materials could be acting as a way of buttressing defects in the rules to increase demand. I wonder how effective this model is compared to, say, putting more work into the Codex releases themselves and making the rules more effective right from the start.

I did this mental exercise tonight. Would an Eldar player sell you their army at a cost of $2 - $3 per model? If so, does the market support this pricing, could you get a lot of players to sell their armies? A small sample from recent eBay listings of armies with unfinished / unpainted models.

Eldar Army - $200 - 77 models, average price per model: $2.59

Eldar Army - $210 - 48 models, average price per model: $4.38

Eldar Army - $450 - 118 models inc. 4 wave serpents, average price per model: $3.81

The rules for Eldar armies are pretty good, but the prices are only slightly higher than ones I paid for Ork armies. Their Codex is also several years old at this point. When the Codex was released, I was interested in getting an Eldar army and did the same thing. While I can't remember the actual numbers, the average cost per model was over $7 across the board, which is getting too close to the cost to simply buy new models.

What this says to me is that, if there's a relationship between the quality of the rules and the perceived value of models, it comes at the time Codexes are released. You could almost treat this as a measure of the value of any particular army, the average cost for a model on the secondary market compared to the average cost per model new. I will be watching what happens to prices for things like Blood Angels when the new Codex is released, and definitely was watching when Tyranids were released (which was fun...).

The reason the secondary market matters, and why all this relates to GW financials, is that it undermines the prime market for new models. If GW wants to make money, they need to make people want to keep their armies and not sell them on eBay at 15% - 40% of their original price. All other things being equal - if you can release a great Codex like Eldar and drive up demand for armies on the secondary market, then release a flawed Codex like Orks and see demand wane, there's something wrong with the business model.

Which brings me back to supplements. All these supplements and extra rules GW is charging for - is releasing fixes for flawed Codexes really a substitute for putting out great rulebooks in the first place? I know the FW site lists Sicaran Battle Tanks as a hot seller for October on the heels of the IA:13 book. I look at this as a way of driving interest in specific models, but I do wonder if GW is well served by this approach. Isn't the point to get people to buy armies? Are they selling more armies with all the Codexes?

Not sure, but I hope this is something they plan to address.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 08:53:27


Post by: Torga_DW


Personally i think its more to do with shareholders losing confidence in games workshop as a whole (although what you say is part of that). The numbers for the 'core' business remain flat or go down each year. Investors are getting nice dividends so far, but you need to get out before the bubble bursts and everyone knows that.

The relaunch of 40k (their flagship product) kept the numbers flat. A dividend wasn't going to be paid last year (until the investors launched a campaign to ensure it was). People are looking closer at performance and humourous preambles. I'm not sure they'll be able to make sense of the rules (i can't, and i used to play) but they'll be watching customer forums (like this one) to see what the general consensus is on the product.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 08:54:34


Post by: doktor_g


Techsoldaten... yes on all counts. Benjamin Graham would be proud.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 09:09:57


Post by: BobtheInquisitor


GW has dropped prices on some kits? Which ones?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 10:37:42


Post by: MajorStoffer


The only place i can see currency exchange really affecting their business is with FW which sets prices in GBP, thus a stronger pound will directly reduce how much people buy.

Back in, what was it, early 2013 when the pound was comparatively weak, I and many others bought loads of FW: I got most of my Death Korps army, the early Horus Heresy character series were picked up by a fair number, FW superheavies were bought (this is also before, I believe, Apocalypse became slowed with its update) and so on. I think at least half the players in my club of 20+ people had notable FW components, and almost all of them had one or two things.

With the pound much stronger, I've only bought one thing, and more and more people are turning to recasters for their FW fix, as they can't justify paying 30% more than they used to on already high prices.

There has been a decrease in GW product moving locally, but that has nothing to do with currency exchange; the prices on the shelf haven't changed (save for the new kits being more expensive than their older equivalents, which does have an effect), but people aren't buying because the game and business is fundamentally flawed. I don't think there's a single person in my club happy with 40k, and they're spending more time and money on other products; they still love 40k, but it's far too draining to play an increasingly flawed game week to week, and even moreso to spend money on something which is increasingly not to one's liking.

No one's selling, nor has any indications of might sell, save for momentary outbursts of frustration, but there is very little investment in the game anymore, and absolutely no one is starting a new army.

Everytime I think of something I might want to do, I remind myself how little fun I've been having with the game, and how the future of it looks so bleak. Sure, I'd love to do a Heroes of Armaggeddon themed army, or use aftermarket models to expand my Praetorian army, or build a Valhallan one, or maybe do a Fallen Angels army, but why? I love the setting, the models, both GW and not are quite good and enjoyable to paint, but when the core product, the main reason I do any of this has become depressing to think about and unenjoyable to play without ridiculous amounts of house-ruling, why on earth would I go drop a few hundred more dollars?

I'm not alone on that, and while GW may continue to keep its head in the sand, and its own inertia and mass will keep it going for sometime (not unlike how they themselves describe the Imperium of Man), I can't help but notice decreasing enthusiasm in the community, lower and lower regular turnouts for events and game nights, and not a single new player in months.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 11:05:45


Post by: Baragash


 MajorStoffer wrote:
The only place i can see currency exchange really affecting their business is with FW which sets prices in GBP, thus a stronger pound will directly reduce how much people buy.

There has been a decrease in GW product moving locally, but that has nothing to do with currency exchange; the prices on the shelf haven't changed (save for the new kits being more expensive than their older equivalents, which does have an effect),


When producing Group accounts a change in exchange rate will affect the value of what GW can recognise in the accounts from it's non-UK operations. Just because you don't see a sticker price change doesn't mean anything.

Regarding whether exchange rates can sufficiently explain a £1m profit loss, here's a quick-and-dirty example, let's assume that H1 and H2 have the same revenue split on £110m annual revenue, and that 50% of GW revenue is generated overseas.

That makes H1 revenue from overseas £27.5m. If we take a 0.1 movement in the exchange rate (I used 1.7 and 1.6), that reduces to £25.9m which is a £1.6m movement in profit (and that's bearing in mind that I think I've chosen numbers that are unfavourable from GW's PoV to the real world numbers).

Don't get me wrong, I'm anti-GW's current management and direction, but I don't think the reason provided can be dismissed until we see the accounts. Even if it's true, I still don't think they're in a good place.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 11:33:43


Post by: AllSeeingSkink


 Baragash wrote:
Regarding whether exchange rates can sufficiently explain a £1m profit loss, here's a quick-and-dirty example, let's assume that H1 and H2 have the same revenue split on £110m annual revenue, and that 50% of GW revenue is generated overseas.

That makes H1 revenue from overseas £27.5m. If we take a 0.1 movement in the exchange rate (I used 1.7 and 1.6), that reduces to £25.9m which is a £1.6m movement in profit (and that's bearing in mind that I think I've chosen numbers that are unfavourable from GW's PoV to the real world numbers).
Are we comparing the first half of this calendar year with the 2nd half? Because the average exchange rate over those two periods hasn't actually changed all that much, if it has changed, it's changed in GW's favour from about ~1.66 to ~1.62.

It's only if you compare to the 2nd half of last calendar year that it's unfavourable, and there it's about a change of ~1.57 to ~1.62.

The lower the number, the more GW make per US sale if I'm not mistaken because it takes more sales in USD to come to the same revenue in GBP (it is very late and it's been a long day so maybe I'm delusional ).


(note: my numbers could be wrong, I just windowed the relevant 6 months and drew a line that looked close to the average, lol)


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 11:39:11


Post by: Wonderwolf


AllSeeingSkink wrote:
]Are we comparing the first half of this calendar year with the 2nd half?


I believe we are comparing the respective first halves of GW's previous and current financial year.

1) 1. June 2013 - 30. November 2013
2) 1. June 2014 - 30. November 2014

At least that is what GW's statement refers to.




GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 12:13:59


Post by: Kilkrazy


 RunicFIN wrote:
 Azreal13 wrote:

I also agree that I find it baffling that people still seem so loyal to GW in spite of everything, they often appear to be the very "grateful goobers fawning over the latest jewel like releases" or however it was phrased, but if someone is, somehow, happy with their relationship with GW then we can't demand they stop buying, all we can do is try and show them reasons to stop and hope they agree.


So you are, in fact, trying to spread the negative way of thinking?

Is this for a "good" ( heavily debatable... ) cause like trying to force GW to change their ways, or for some other reason entirely?


People aren't accountable to you for the reasons they make posts. Your query is irrelevant and off topic.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 13:00:48


Post by: Arschbombe


 techsoldaten wrote:
What I wonder about the financials is how much issues with profitability are related to the quality of Codex releases, and whether or not this is something you can actually observe on eBay and other places on the Internet.


How do you measure the quality of a codex?

I think part of why you see an uptick in armies for sale when that army's codex is updated is because the sellers expect there to be a spike in interest around that time. You get more people selling which must mean more people are buying.

With every codex release there are those who get excited by new opportunities and models and there are those who are upset that a specific build, unit, or playstyle has been eliminated. Does that make quality relative? Just look at the 100+ pages of the BA rumor thread. We've people excited about the update and people swearing at GW that their army has been ruined. That's par for the course. Usually the community comes to some sort of consensus about how powerful a codex is relative to others, but I'm not sure that quality equals power.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 13:14:09


Post by: Blacksails


You're absolutely correct; power does not equal quality.

There are ways you could measure a codex's quality as objectively as possible. I'd probably go with internal balance, external balance, and rules quality, which covers the crunch aspects. Then you could compare from earlier codices and other ones things like quantity of new art and fluff, though quality would be too personal for people. Finally, you could try and quantify options and customization, which sort of ties into the crunch aspects, as options and customization or builds only shows when those options are all valid through balance.

Personally, all the new codices have only really improved external balance among the updated books. Internal is still pretty poor, and the quality of the rules writing is still lacking. All of the new codices have had art and fluff cut, or at least nothing new or worth mentioning, and number of valid/balanced builds is still rather low. Options are being cut in many places and only really replaced by expensive supplements and other DLC.

I can't help but look at my 5th IG book (even with all its flaws) and like it better than my 6th book in most ways.

Not to mention that the new codices are twice the price of their 5th ed counterparts.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 13:27:54


Post by: MaxT


I'm staggered that GW charge what they do for rules. They claim to be a model company, but they put a massive ~£80 barrier to entry to use those models in the form of rulebook + & 1 codex. Practically every other model company that makes rules has rules are near or actual zero cost. And it's not like the quality of the rules is a factor, in many cases they're superior !


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 13:29:51


Post by: Howard A Treesong


GW's profits can go up and down, these are difficult economic times. Profits going down doesn't mean there will be a sudden crash. It's loss of customers that will lead to a crash because once enough stop buying/playing, there won't be that saturation of the market. GW's customer base is only inferred from their sales. They could have the same number of customers who are all spending less. That would be easier to bounce back from than losing large numbers of customers.

So much of GW's ongoing success stands on the fact that you can always get a game of GW at any shop or club. Many people won't consider buying into another system because of concerns about getting a game. When GW's customer base depletes to a certain level, it will drop off quite fast.

GW do very little to nurture their customer base. Even Wizards of the Coast, owned by corporate giant Hasbro, interact with the community through social media. They do articles and explain design decisions and answer questions, they support tournaments and events at stores everywhere. GW don't do any of that and through their one-man stores make it difficult to build any community at all. The only reward for shopping with GW is being able to get figures they restrict to being direct only. It seems their moat and walls are keeping customers out and letting competition in.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 13:41:08


Post by: SilverDevilfish


 BobtheInquisitor wrote:
GW has dropped prices on some kits? Which ones?


A few of the finecast to plastic kits dropped in price. Things like the GK Strike Squad being moved to 10 in a box and costing less than 2 5-model Strike Squads separately. Basically GW is moving to cheaper plastic production and or more bulk that likely costs them less to produce and is actually for the first time in... forever, passing the savings on (the savings are like $3 less but eh it's better than paying $10 more, so it's a start).

There's also stuff like Stormclaw, Deathstorm and Stormstorm (okay I made that one up), that are being used for promotional purposes and have massive price reductions.

That said I don't think I've seen a kit that has not been modified in some way drop in price.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 13:43:00


Post by: Breotan


MaxT wrote:
I'm staggered that GW charge what they do for rules. They claim to be a model company, but they put a massive ~£80 barrier to entry to use those models in the form of rulebook + & 1 codex. Practically every other model company that makes rules has rules are near or actual zero cost. And it's not like the quality of the rules is a factor, in many cases they're superior !
Your claims are a little exaggerated.

My "codex" for Cyriss (Warmachine) retails for $29.99. How much did the soft-cover 40k codexes go for? Not a heck of a lot more, yet both are about the same size. The rulebook for Malifaux retails for $40.00 and is significantly less thick than the 40k rulebook as well as being soft-cover.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 13:53:25


Post by: Azreal13


But don't Wyrd do a cheap, small format book, and don't PP give the rules away with their models?

Not being smart, genuine question.

 RunicFIN wrote:
Spoiler:
 Azreal13 wrote:

I also agree that I find it baffling that people still seem so loyal to GW in spite of everything, they often appear to be the very "grateful goobers fawning over the latest jewel like releases" or however it was phrased, but if someone is, somehow, happy with their relationship with GW then we can't demand they stop buying, all we can do is try and show them reasons to stop and hope they agree.


So you are, in fact, trying to spread the negative way of thinking?

Is this for a "good" ( heavily debatable... ) cause like trying to force GW to change their ways, or for some other reason entirely?


Spoiler:
Crude and slow, clansman. Your attack was no better than that of a clumsy child.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 14:15:04


Post by: MaxT


PP Rulebook and 1 forces book ~ $60, so half of GW's price. They also include the specific rules in with the models you buy.

Mantic = free download for rules

Spartan Games = free download for rules

Wyrd = $15 for the rules, models come with their rules.

X-Wing = $40 including 3 ships and other starter stuff, other models come with their rules.

Etc etc. Oh, and whether rulebooks are hardback, full of background, made of solid gold, come with free hookers and blow, etc are not relevant to the cost of entry debate, as it's still a cost of entry. Peeps don't want to spent $120+ to find they're not a fan, they'll try the cheaper options first. And there's plenty of those, and one of them will capture them before GW gets the chance.

P.S. Not related to the cost of entry debate but it gets even more hilarious if you go the other way and work out how much it costs to get ALL rules. For Wyrd it's like $60. For PP it's like $100 for Ultimate warroom bundle & rulebook. Mantic, still free. GW, for 40K maybe $2000? $3000?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 14:25:09


Post by: 12thRonin


All those other systems still have the rules available for it. None of the rules to play the game were short print runs that are no longer available.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 14:58:29


Post by: 455_PWR


What about wild west exodus? The massive rulebook full of fluff was $50 (same size as large 40k rulebook), a simpler small paperback rulebook is $20, and all models come with their own rules.

Simple cost to entry rules wise? $20!! Thats less than half of a reduced price baseline codex on ebay!

Lets see.... a newb getting into blood angels would have to poney up $85 for the fluff rules or $58 for the small rulebook and then either $165 for the le rules or $50 for the regular rulebook... cheapest cost for one armies rules is $108!

I agree about the cost of 40k. I started in third (thank god) and saved a ton as I had bought a ton when it was cheaper. I was 40k's most loyal customer (preached it from the rooftops... told people 40k was a lifestyle and not just a casual game...) and i have literally stopped buying 40k this past year (unless I had to have a specific book or unit for my armies) and stopped buying every armies codex books due to the price.

I have gotten into several other games with the money i have saved and love that I have options now!


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 15:10:40


Post by: Accolade


Regarding the codex prices, I think GW seems to have this idea that as long as they keep improving the quality (materials-wise) of the rules, then they can keep up'ing the costs. The special edition books are good example of this- a little additional fluff, a leather-bound cover, and you can charge and extra $40 to that $50 book.

The thing is, I think they're drastically misunderstanding what people use the rulebooks for. They aren't tomes you keep dusted in your black library in the basement, they are game aides that you use on a game-by-game basis to play. And while the books themselves are very nice in terms of presentation, the costs are extraordinarily high.

I understand their desire to keep this "porsche of mini-wargamming" image they try to foster (although I think it's a bit absurd), but their obsession with limited, one-time only, bathed-in-the-blood-of-heretics materials (books and otherwise) is really hurting the game. GW may be convincing themselves that people just collect their models and don't actually care about playing (since a lot of them never get around to it), but they are going to be shocked when the customer base dries up when there's no more game left to play.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 15:25:23


Post by: agnosto


A bit off topic but in way of explanation as to how sales volume may be dropping.

I know nothing about Infinity or Malifaux and I absolutely hate Mantic's rules (subjective) so it's a good thing they're free.

But objectively with WM/H. Faction books are completely optional as the rules for units are included with the models. The main rulebook is $30 vs the $85 behemoth from GW. Yes, GW has packaged 3 books together, 2 of which have nothing at all to do with their game rules. To be fair, they recently released the rules by themselves after a 6 month wait for $58 so lets go with that.
PP $30 main rulebook, faction book $0
GW $58 main rulebooks, faction book $33-$49.50

So for the price of just the GW books to get started, I can have the main WM or H rulebook and a faction starter.

PP is a self-professed game company. GW has stated repeatedly that they are primarily a model company. There's a disconnect in what GW is saying and the message that they are sending to customers which appears to be driving a good number of them away, proven over the last several reports with drops in sales volume.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 15:39:22


Post by: ORicK


I just hope GW finds a way to become a stable company.
Less "growth oriented", but table, delivering quality miniatures (that is what they do best).

In regard to the books: these have become way to expensive.
I collect since 25+ years, have 3+ versions of many codexes/armybooks and don't see any quality improvement in the background (75+% the same) and characteristics (80+% the same).
The only quality improvement are the photos in some cases, but IMO they had the best graphic artists in the 1st edition 40k books.
Compare GW books to non-GW books (non-fiction) and you also can see the prices are off.

I have stopped buying books, i have not stopped buying nice new models and have not stopped playing.
But many players i know stopped, spent less and look at other games.

I don't expect 40k universe to dissappear, but GW as the copyright owner might get into trouble.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 15:49:43


Post by: techsoldaten


 Arschbombe wrote:
 techsoldaten wrote:
What I wonder about the financials is how much issues with profitability are related to the quality of Codex releases, and whether or not this is something you can actually observe on eBay and other places on the Internet.


How do you measure the quality of a codex?

I think part of why you see an uptick in armies for sale when that army's codex is updated is because the sellers expect there to be a spike in interest around that time. You get more people selling which must mean more people are buying.

With every codex release there are those who get excited by new opportunities and models and there are those who are upset that a specific build, unit, or playstyle has been eliminated. Does that make quality relative? Just look at the 100+ pages of the BA rumor thread. We've people excited about the update and people swearing at GW that their army has been ruined. That's par for the course. Usually the community comes to some sort of consensus about how powerful a codex is relative to others, but I'm not sure that quality equals power.


I think you are looking at this from the perspective of an individual gamer.

What I suggested is that there might be market forces at work that affect what people are willing to sell their armies for in the secondary market, and that these forces might be depressing sales in the primary (new model) market. It's a much more reasonable explanation for GW's loss of profit than shifting currency values.

I don't think anything I can say about the quality of a Codex matters, the Internet pretty much does that already. The only thing that does matter is whether people's perceptions about a Codex release increase the inventory of models available on secondary markets, and if that affects the average price per model.

This doesn't seem to be a supply and demand issue, at least not in the manner your message suggests. More people selling does not automatically mean more people are buying, I see enough auctions on eBay that don't close to know there's not always a buyer. You can have a lot more people selling than there are buyers. And people's motivations for wanting to sell also don't enter into this, it's not really a matter of what costs the market will bear where pricing levels are set by the scarcity of goods.

When we see prices dip to around $2 per model, it means people are giving up or maybe even rage-quitting the game. They are leaving a significant investment of dollars on the table. If it's 1 or 2 people, that's one thing. If that's the average going rate for models, that's a big problem for GW. It's like selling your brand new $25,000 Honda for $3,000 - what makes someone want to do that? Further, if a lot of people start selling their brand new Hondas for the same price, what does that do to new Honda sales?



GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 15:58:21


Post by: D6Damager


 agnosto wrote:
A bit off topic but in way of explanation as to how sales volume may be dropping.

I

But objectively with WM/H. Faction books are completely optional as the rules for units are included with the models.


Actually, you need the faction books in order to get the theme force rules for each warcaster/warlock.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 16:04:13


Post by: Smacks


I'm a little surprised by this. With Space Hulk and the rate at which they've been churning out army books, I thought they would be able to mask their dwindling customer base for at least another year. If it had just been business as usual for GW then this news wouldn't be very interesting, but the fact that they've finished their webstore, they've done their restructuring, they've done all the easy cash grabs, new editions, unbound armies, re-released Space Hulk, stepped up production on codex books, raised all the prices -- yet business is still slumping! Things might actually be worse than I thought.

It feels like they pulled out all the stops already. If they don't manage to increase profits this year, then it's a safe bet that they never will (At least not with their current business model).


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 16:04:13


Post by: StraightSilver


I think this is the biggest wake up call to GW that the fact that their Market Share is shrinking is affecting their profits.

For a long time GW have considered themselves to be "the hobby tm" and in fairness for a long time maybe they were.

However with the advent of kick starter, Fantasy Flight and a wealth of new game systems GW need to realise they are no longer the only kid on the block and that this is a fantastic time for the wargame / miniature market.

Price comparisons aside there are simply a lot more games to choose from and gamers, like everybody else, only have a finite hobby budget which has resulted in a shrink in GW's market share.

If GW engaged in a bit of non centric market research, or any market research at all they would realise that the average gamer now has way more choice than they did 5 years ago and companies that were quite small in comparison are now able to produce high quality, comparatively cheap / good VFM, starter sets which compete directly with GW products.

For example Deadzone, X-Wing, Dropzone Commander, Infinity - Project Ice Storm etc are all starter sets that would have been impossible for small companies to produce (without significant financial risk) several years ago.

And then there is the advent of the independent retailer and the internet.

Not so much in the US but certainly in Europe independent game stores are springing back up everywhere.

In the UK many independents were closed down by GW's aggressive bricks and mortar store openings. They simply couldn't compete with GW stores who used to sell non-GW products at huge discounts and also offered gaming and painting space.

When independents closed down GW would then stop stocking non-GW products, thereby shutting down the market for anything other than GW's core games.

I'm not sure if it's the closure of so many GW stores here in the UK or more a reflection of how healthy the wargames market is now but there are a lot of successful independent game stores that are doing very well - 2 examples being Wayland games and Darksphere.

And there are also the wealth of online stockist, who alongside independents sell GW products at an average 15-20% discount.

So my point is the loss of Market Share combined with more savvy customers buying at discount is having an effect on GW profit, even though they would like to pretend that isn't the case.

The only way they could combat this is to have GW store specific deals, or release more entry level games to try to grab back some market share.

The sad thing is they have such a huge back catalogue of games and a fantastic IP but seem to not want to commit to it.

Batttlefleet Gothic, Necromunda, Mordheim, Epic, Titanicus all would be bale to compete in today's market and would allow GW to draw cash away from other systems but they seem reluctant to invest in future products.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 16:16:49


Post by: overtyrant


 D6Damager wrote:
 agnosto wrote:
A bit off topic but in way of explanation as to how sales volume may be dropping.

I

But objectively with WM/H. Faction books are completely optional as the rules for units are included with the models.


Actually, you need the faction books in order to get the theme force rules for each warcaster/warlock.


Which are not a necessity to play the game, and you can get them on tablet for there war room app (which is absolutely fantastic btw!) for a few quid you get all the faction cards. So no you don't actually need them there great for fluff though!


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 16:21:42


Post by: NuclearMessiah


I don't really have a dog in this fight anymore since I left the GW verse a few years ago, but I thought I would interject some on the side of Infinity since we are doing cost analysis.

Infinity has (currently) 3 rule books come in at $48 MSRP a piece, the new 3rd Edition book will be coming in at $75. None of those books are required to play as all rules are free to download and they provide a free army builder. One caveat is there is a campaign system only found in the 3rd book.

A Six model starter runs from $48-$54 and a full army consist of 10-20 models top. Single model blisters run from $11-$60 (dependent on the size of the actual model) and 4 model boxes $34-$44.

And I won't even go into Terrain which is a very important piece.

So Infinity has fairly steep prices, but a low model investment and despite that is showing significant growth mainly to what I contribute to the attitude of the company, which could be considered the Anti-GW.

Anyways back to lurking in here


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 16:49:08


Post by: NoggintheNog


 NuclearMessiah wrote:
I don't really have a dog in this fight anymore since I left the GW verse a few years ago, but I thought I would interject some on the side of Infinity since we are doing cost analysis.


Once hooked people will spend on any hobby, it is the cost of entry that can be the thing that stops them. For infinity, the cost of entry, in UK prices, is £27/ Thats what a faction starter box costs. Download the quick start rules and you can have a game.

This is also where warmahordes scores, a game with similar per model costs to GW (infinity is often cheaper per model than GW, I can buy two pan o metal character models for the cost of one blood angels plastic priest for instance), but it is cheaper to start, a £25 softback rulebook and a £30 starter army box.

GW requires a £35 rule book, a £25 (minimum) codex plus some models, a single unit of 40K is at least £20 and a legal force £100.

And no, before anyone interjects, deathstorm doesn't count. its a limited release for some inexplicable reason known only to Tom Kirby and his financial advisers, and the starter box provides neither codex or a legal army.

Rather than the ongoing costs that plenty of players complain about, but continue to pay (because they are hooked), it is the cost of entry that is likely causing the most issues, they are simply not getting the new peeople they need.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 16:59:56


Post by: Thulsa Doom


Hi All,

I used to analyze Financial Reports for a major news firm in the US. Upon reading this I can tell you one thing...

Anyone can blame currencies for the fall in stock price...honestly this is a cover up to poor sales...here are the key words to look for:

Games Workshop said that it now expects to report a first-half operating profit GBP1 million " lower than the prior year, " when reported at actual rates.

also the phrase "broadly" in line with expectations is complete and utter BULLSHIZ. That is such a NON-statement.

Financial reports come down to numbers....pure and simple saying "broadly" anything does not reflect the true numbers at all.

My opinion, they are getting pummeled with poor sales.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 17:14:59


Post by: frozenwastes


Investor relations really is about marketing and propaganda. GW (obviously) wants to tell the story in a way that puts them in the best possible light. In the last report Kirby even went so far as to say this about the numbers:

"If your measure of 'good' is the current financial year's numbers, you may not agree. But if your measure is the long-term survivability of a great cash generating business that still has a lot of potential growth, then you will agree."

He's hilarious. There's no potential for growth when you are laying off sales staff faster than you are hiring them and paying out more in dividends than you earn. Where is the growth going to come from? Where's the plan? It's just a baseless claim. He even later sort of admits it:

"That we are ex-growth is a big risk seen by some. As I said above I do not believe it. But if it is true we have built a wonderfully efficient cash-generating machine."

With fluctuating (declining) dividend payouts at an unsustainable ratio. GW is not only "ex-growth" but their "wonderfully efficient cash-generating machine" is producing inconsistent results.

"The bigger risk is the same one I repeat each year, and that is management. So long as we have great people we will be fine."

Paying out all your cash reserves and more than your earnings shows that you couldn't think of a single thing to do with that money to make more money for your shareholders. When GW returned to paying dividends in 2010/11 they said they would not be using a consistent dividend schedule or policy, but would be paying out "truly surplus cash."

The biggest risk indeed is management. A management team that has no plan to reinvest for growth, no path to return to growth and are unable to maintain a stable dividend because the earnings no longer support the crazy pay out ratio they've been using for the last 3 years.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 18:49:03


Post by: Arschbombe


 techsoldaten wrote:
When we see prices dip to around $2 per model, it means people are giving up or maybe even rage-quitting the game.

I don’t think we have enough information to set a Rage Quit Price Index where model prices <$2 means a codex is crap and model prices >$3 means a codex is good. We don’t know that every seller is a former player. Sometimes the prices are ridiculously low because the seller is a spouse, parent, or ex-landlord who cleaning out a closet.

I’ve got a stillborn Word Bearers army that I want to get rid of. Is it better to put up for sale now or wait until the next CSM codex is coming out?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 19:05:01


Post by: Smacks


 frozenwastes wrote:
"If your measure of 'good' is the current financial year's numbers, you may not agree. But if your measure is the long-term survivability of a great cash generating business that still has a lot of potential growth, then you will agree."
(I don't agree)

I think this was probably the most infuriating and dishonest part of his statement (with the possible exception of when he compared himself to Steve Jobs). Many people feel that GW has been focusing on "the current year's report" at the expense of long term survivability for too long. Getting rid of specialist games, creating huge barriers to entry, alienating existing customers with price hikes and obvious cash grabs. I've lost count of the number of times I've seen people say "I'm gonna finish up my existing army, but then I'm done with GW". Assuming some of those people followed through, we can say that GW probably did manage to squeeze a bit more cash out of them in the short term, but in the long term they lost a customer. This is what they have been doing for years, and it was bound to catch up with them. Now that it is catching up with them, when we are beginning to see the impact of Kirby's own shortsightedness, he has the audacity to turn around and say that "actually" this is just a short term blip, and he's playing the long game!?!

He's a damn liar. Since he has been in charge he hasn't been able able to look beyond the next six months. Which is why sales have slumped (predictably) year after year.




GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 19:08:04


Post by: luky7dayz


I don't think GW will be gone yet, give it 5 more years.

They're going to give out some bullcrap which will cause stocks to rise. So if you really want to make a quick profit, drop some money into their stocks in the next week or so, watch it rise 30-50. cash out


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 19:56:56


Post by: frozenwastes


 Smacks wrote:
This is what they have been doing for years, and it was bound to catch up with them. Now that it is catching up with them, when we are beginning to see the impact of Kirby's own shortsightedness, he has the audacity to turn around and say that "actually" this is just a short term blip, and he's playing the long game!?!

He's a damn liar. Since he has been in charge he hasn't been able able to look beyond the next six months. Which is why sales have slumped (predictably) year after year.


From his perspective, GW is a very efficient cash machine because he's been able to receive a far greater proportion of the revenue in dividends that his 7% ownership would have gotten them if GW had a sane and responsible dividend schedule and reinvested in the business. Here's a breakdown of the dividend and earnings per share history:


Interesting notes: In 2006 they propped up the previous year's dividend by borrowing money. 2007-2009 were the "fat and lazy" years where Kirby wringed his hands and promised to cut costs and be more efficient. In late 2009 and into 2010 they returned to profitability and began paying dividends again. At first it was at a normal rate, but then in 2011 it kicked into overdrive. The high EPS of this era also shows that GW did indeed have expenses that needed cutting. The question is whether or not they went too far and cut too deep. The earnings per share spiked above even the 2004 LOTR boom height. That's how thorough and deep the cuts to jobs and spending have been.

What has all this accomplished? It's allowed Kirby to receive dividend payments above and beyond what his 7% ownership should have entitled him to by paying out a ridiculously high ratio. Had he stuck with a more financially conservative 30-40% pay out ratio and reinvested the rest in the business, GW would be far better off, but Kirby would have less cash in the bank. This "cash generation" talk is just justification for paying himself more than he's entitled to by irresponsibly not re-investing in the company. The other share holders get the money as well, and they are indeed legally entitled to it as owners, but it's looting at the expense of the future of the company.

What the management is saying to the investors by paying out over 100% of their earnings as dividends is that they have no clue what to do with it to reinvest in the company and they're willing to even empty the cash reserves because they can't think of what to do with any left overs from previous years either. When Kirby proposed distributing over 100% of the earnings in a given year, the rest of the board should have said no. They should have said it's not sustainable. They should have stood up for the future health of the company and the long term interests of the share holders. But GW has a yes-man culture where what Kirby says goes. So the company got looted.

Imagine where GW would be now if they had never gone above a 50% pay out ratio and reinvested the difference in growing the company, making better products and keeping their hobby centres as destination locations where you actually participate in the full range of their offerings.




GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 20:31:11


Post by: Kilkrazy


 Breotan wrote:
MaxT wrote:
I'm staggered that GW charge what they do for rules. They claim to be a model company, but they put a massive ~£80 barrier to entry to use those models in the form of rulebook + & 1 codex. Practically every other model company that makes rules has rules are near or actual zero cost. And it's not like the quality of the rules is a factor, in many cases they're superior !
Your claims are a little exaggerated.

My "codex" for Cyriss (Warmachine) retails for $29.99. How much did the soft-cover 40k codexes go for? Not a heck of a lot more, yet both are about the same size. The rulebook for Malifaux retails for $40.00 and is significantly less thick than the 40k rulebook as well as being soft-cover.


Softback codexes were average £15. The hardback codexes are average £30. It isn't difficult to discern a possibly incorrect causative factor of reduced sales.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 20:32:02


Post by: Elemental


 agnosto wrote:
A bit off topic but in way of explanation as to how sales volume may be dropping.

I know nothing about Infinity or Malifaux and I absolutely hate Mantic's rules (subjective) so it's a good thing they're free.

But objectively with WM/H. Faction books are completely optional as the rules for units are included with the models. The main rulebook is $30 vs the $85 behemoth from GW. Yes, GW has packaged 3 books together, 2 of which have nothing at all to do with their game rules. To be fair, they recently released the rules by themselves after a 6 month wait for $58 so lets go with that.
PP $30 main rulebook, faction book $0
GW $58 main rulebooks, faction book $33-$49.50

So for the price of just the GW books to get started, I can have the main WM or H rulebook and a faction starter.


And it's worth noting that the current edition of Warmachine is four and a half years old--40K players have been asked to buy more than one new edition in that time.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 20:37:42


Post by: Hulksmash


But is it really 4 years old? I mean they have expansions from what I can tell once to twice a year. And not optional ones like Cities of Death or Planet Fall but actual game expansions. Not sure if they are required purchasing for most rules (like how Collosals work for instance) or not but saying they haven't had an edition change is a bit silly. I'd count 4 expansions as equivelent to a 40k edition change (since we all know they are mostly just shake-ups, not fully different games).

But WM/Hordes vs. GW has been discussed to death. WM/Hordes has a lower entry point and is generally cheaper to play overall. Their price per model is generally similar to GW's on equal sized models/units. And tournament armies aren't that different in cost at the 50pt level from what I've seen when I price myself a list every few months when I consider WM/Hordes


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 21:07:45


Post by: MWHistorian


 Hulksmash wrote:
But is it really 4 years old? I mean they have expansions from what I can tell once to twice a year. And not optional ones like Cities of Death or Planet Fall but actual game expansions. Not sure if they are required purchasing for most rules (like how Collosals work for instance) or not but saying they haven't had an edition change is a bit silly. I'd count 4 expansions as equivelent to a 40k edition change (since we all know they are mostly just shake-ups, not fully different games).

But WM/Hordes vs. GW has been discussed to death. WM/Hordes has a lower entry point and is generally cheaper to play overall. Their price per model is generally similar to GW's on equal sized models/units. And tournament armies aren't that different in cost at the 50pt level from what I've seen when I price myself a list every few months when I consider WM/Hordes

Nope, not required. Only book required is MkII Prime.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 21:37:59


Post by: RiTides


 frozenwastes wrote:
From his perspective, GW is a very efficient cash machine because he's been able to receive a far greater proportion of the revenue in dividends that his 7% ownership would have gotten them if GW had a sane and responsible dividend schedule and reinvested in the business. Here's a breakdown of the dividend and earnings per share history:


Interesting notes: In 2006 they propped up the previous year's dividend by borrowing money. 2007-2009 were the "fat and lazy" years where Kirby wringed his hands and promised to cut costs and be more efficient. In late 2009 and into 2010 they returned to profitability and began paying dividends again. At first it was at a normal rate, but then in 2011 it kicked into overdrive. The high EPS of this era also shows that GW did indeed have expenses that needed cutting. The question is whether or not they went too far and cut too deep. The earnings per share spiked above even the 2004 LOTR boom height. That's how thorough and deep the cuts to jobs and spending have been.

What has all this accomplished? It's allowed Kirby to receive dividend payments above and beyond what his 7% ownership should have entitled him to by paying out a ridiculously high ratio. Had he stuck with a more financially conservative 30-40% pay out ratio and reinvested the rest in the business, GW would be far better off, but Kirby would have less cash in the bank. This "cash generation" talk is just justification for paying himself more than he's entitled to by irresponsibly not re-investing in the company. The other share holders get the money as well, and they are indeed legally entitled to it as owners, but it's looting at the expense of the future of the company.

What the management is saying to the investors by paying out over 100% of their earnings as dividends is that they have no clue what to do with it to reinvest in the company and they're willing to even empty the cash reserves because they can't think of what to do with any left overs from previous years either. When Kirby proposed distributing over 100% of the earnings in a given year, the rest of the board should have said no. They should have said it's not sustainable. They should have stood up for the future health of the company and the long term interests of the share holders. But GW has a yes-man culture where what Kirby says goes. So the company got looted.

Imagine where GW would be now if they had never gone above a 50% pay out ratio and reinvested the difference in growing the company, making better products and keeping their hobby centres as destination locations where you actually participate in the full range of their offerings.



That is an amazing analysis / post, so worth seeing twice! Thank you very much for taking the time to write that up.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 21:41:24


Post by: Azreal13


It actually makes me a tad angry to think that, assuming this interpretation is accurate, and let's face it, the facts fit it quite well, then Kirby has, in essence, put his own personal wealth ahead of the livelihoods of hundreds of people, their dependants and anyone who has any savings invested directly with GW or one of the institutions that do.

For a leader he makes a fething brilliant taxman.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 22:03:56


Post by: Yodhrin


 Azreal13 wrote:
It actually makes me a tad angry to think that, assuming this interpretation is accurate, and let's face it, the facts fit it quite well, then Kirby has, in essence, put his own personal wealth ahead of the livelihoods of hundreds of people, their dependants and anyone who has any savings invested directly with GW or one of the institutions that do.

For a leader he makes a fething brilliant taxman.


Remember this is the man who managed to funnel £4million for a genuinely crappy storefront(calling it a "website" is a bit of joke) to his wife's company. It's safe to assume at this point that GW's mismanagement is not down to stupidity, Kirby and possibly the rest of the board know exactly what's going on, and they just don't care. Their only concern now is bleeding the company of every last penny they can before it eventually goes tits-up.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 22:14:30


Post by: Herzlos


I didn't think it was the wife's company, but she got a chunk of it somehow (IT manager?). I'll need to dig into the last report to see what I can find out.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 22:31:17


Post by: Davylove21


Perhaps they pay a mental high dividend to keep that share price as high as it is year on year?

I hope that whoever eventually owns GW, or GW's IP after the sky falls, is a gamer.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/10 22:40:31


Post by: SeanDrake


 Davylove21 wrote:
Perhaps they pay a mental high dividend to keep that share price as high as it is year on year?

I hope that whoever eventually owns GW, or GW's IP after the sky falls, is a gamer.


A gamer is not needed just an experienced company or manger with some ethics to not line there own nest at the cost of the company.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 00:29:47


Post by: techsoldaten


 Arschbombe wrote:

I don’t think we have enough information to set a Rage Quit Price Index where model prices <$2 means a codex is crap and model prices >$3 means a codex is good. We don’t know that every seller is a former player. Sometimes the prices are ridiculously low because the seller is a spouse, parent, or ex-landlord who cleaning out a closet.

I’ve got a stillborn Word Bearers army that I want to get rid of. Is it better to put up for sale now or wait until the next CSM codex is coming out?


You're just baiting me and already know what I am going to say. Say it for me, nicely this time.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Thulsa Doom wrote:

Anyone can blame currencies for the fall in stock price...honestly this is a cover up to poor sales...here are the key words to look for:


Yup. Who exactly were they trying to fool with this report?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 01:45:32


Post by: SilverDevilfish


NoggintheNog wrote:

And no, before anyone interjects, deathstorm doesn't count. its a limited release for some inexplicable reason known only to Tom Kirby and his financial advisers, and the starter box provides neither codex or a legal army.


Deathstorm is a sales promotion, they're selling those figures at a massively reduced price to try to get you (the consumer) to spend money on other things. That's probably why it's limited time.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 01:53:32


Post by: Psienesis


 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Is this the moment that GW's crops wither and die, its children piteous deaths?

Like most people, I haven't a clue when it comes to net profits, gross profits, currency flow etc etc

So, in one friendly sound bite, can anybody answer this question: is this GW's inevitable decline and demise?


Too early to tell, but the stated reasons for the decline don't seem to mesh well with reality or expectations of that reality... so it's still too early to tell.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 04:00:46


Post by: Toofast


If GW were honest in their preamble:
"Our profit is down because revenue is down. Revenue is down because we've pissed off half our customer base, we don't do any market research to figure out how/why our customers are leaving or how to retain the ones we still have and we don't do any marketing to get new customers to make up for all the ones that left. Therefore, we expect our profits to continue to fall because we don't know what we're doing wrong in the first place and have no intention to try and figure it out. Profits are broadly in line with what you would expect from a company that doesn't do market research or marketing in 2014."


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 06:44:44


Post by: Surtur


You hit the nail on the head there Toofast.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 08:35:31


Post by: Stormonu


For the hell of it, my iphone has a stock ticker that I use to monitor GW's decent. While that essentially monitors investor's faith in the company moreso than the actual health of the company, there are things I see that tell me GW is heading for an eventual crash - some ways down the road.

Back in 2004, I see they had an enormous high (in the 800's), probably coming off the LotR series. This dropped down to around 120 or so in 2008, the lowest I see GW's stock price has gone.

It then rapidly rose until peaking around 2011 at around the 700's. There was a small surge coinciding with 6th's release, but since that time, the stock has been steadily dropping. What's disturbing is that 7th's release didn't even make a speed bump (like 6th) in the stock's slow grind downward.

From what I see, GW is going to hit the 300's in about 18 months; I suspect that is when GW will start have financial problems as it starts dipping into reserves and flat-lines on profits. In about 36 months, if there isn't some drastic changes, they'll be back in the 100's for stock value. If GW doesn't do something to turn things around by that time, I'm pretty sure they'll be on the brink of bankruptcy.

Honestly though, I do see GW *attempting* to make some changes to draw customers back, but it all seems too little, too late. Their prices are so high that offering discounts on things like Deathstorm still leaves their stuff overpriced. And while they are trying a few new things - like dataslates, rulebook-only releases, qucker release cycles and the like, it seems like a lot of their tactics leave the community going "lol, whut?" It's a lot of gak being thrown at the wall to see what sticks, instead of doing proper market research to find out what customers REALLY want.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 09:18:05


Post by: Herzlos


Herzlos wrote:
I didn't think it was the wife's company, but she got a chunk of it somehow (IT manager?). I'll need to dig into the last report to see what I can find out.


The previous threads about the first half 2014 financial report mention that a Mrs Kirby is IT director, and possibly worked as a consultant on the website, but I've not found any citation for that yet. Does anyone know if there's somewhere we can find a list of current directors, or the name of the company that repackaged the webstore?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 09:58:27


Post by: Baragash


Red Technology Solutions Ltd did the webstore, they have two directors, a husband and wife by the looks of it (not the Kirbys!). Company is based in Oxfordshire.

A less-than-thorough Google didn't turn up a connection between Ms Lathbury/Kirby and Red or the individual directors


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 10:11:03


Post by: frozenwastes


 Azreal13 wrote:
It actually makes me a tad angry to think that, assuming this interpretation is accurate, and let's face it, the facts fit it quite well, then Kirby has, in essence, put his own personal wealth ahead of the livelihoods of hundreds of people, their dependants and anyone who has any savings invested directly with GW or one of the institutions that do.


Kirby's fortune was definitely made at the expense of GW employees. Having a minimum wage with no raises ever for non-manager retail staff combined with massive layoffs to cut expenses meant that the earnings and dividends could be pushed up even higher. If we consider the LOTR boom, we have GW making the most money it ever did (especially when you adjust for inflation) and paying Kirby such high bonuses he made lists of overpaid CEOs in the financial news industry, we still have lower earnings per share than the current way GW is operating. Just think about that. Costs (and therefore people's jobs and livelihoods) have been slashed so far that GW was making more per share in their current state of declining volume and revenue than during the LOTR boom (well, until 2014 which saw two reports with massive declines in both revenue and profit).

People say things like "it's good when management owns stock in the company because then they have a personal interest for the stock to do well." And that's the case when the management will get their 40% or so of eps as a dividend and have to make up the rest of their value through reinvesting in the business and growing the equity in the business in terms of building assets, having a good cash position and growing sales channels and volume. And they can also make money off of options agreements where they are directly rewarded for increasing shareholder value by being able to exercise their options and buy shares at a lower price than the market rate. There's a way for management to be well compensated without endangering the long term viability of the company by looting through excessive dividends. What's going on here reminds me of the 2004-2007 distributions of Canadian Income Trusts and American Master Limited Partnerships when they were paying such high distributions that they were actually returning capital rather than paying earnings. When the economic down turn hit, that all completely fell apart as you can't weather storms when you've looted your treasury.



GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 11:01:55


Post by: Yodhrin


 Baragash wrote:
Red Technology Solutions Ltd did the webstore, they have two directors, a husband and wife by the looks of it (not the Kirbys!). Company is based in Oxfordshire.

A less-than-thorough Google didn't turn up a connection between Ms Lathbury/Kirby and Red or the individual directors


Hmm, must have got my wires crossed then.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 11:06:01


Post by: MajorStoffer


 Toofast wrote:
If GW were honest in their prpreamble:
"Our profit is down because revenue is down. Revenue is down because we've pissed off half our customer base, we don't do any market research to figure out how/why our customers are leaving or how to retain the ones we still have and we don't do any marketing to get new customers to make up for all the ones that left. Therefore, we expect our profits to continue to fall because we don't know what we're doing wrong in the first place and have no intention to try and figure it out. Profits are broadly in line with what you would expect from a company that doesn't do market research or marketing in 2014."


Glorious, concise, captures my sentiments exactly; have an exalt.

GW really is a morbidly curious case in terms of business; their position really isn't that grim right now, and good management could improve their business dramatically; they aren't failing in the face of insurmountable odds, but declining owing to their own stupidity, doomed not for the cruelty of the gods and fate, but for their own inability, or lack of desire as some have postulated, to actually change "business as usual."

As a gamer, I just wish they'd either keel over and die and let someone take over with a modicum of business sense or start actually trying to right their ship. Instead, we're in the awkward and uncomfortable and depressing position of watching a beloved friend or family member get increasingly ill while denying anything is going on.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 11:18:09


Post by: Baragash


 Yodhrin wrote:
 Baragash wrote:
Red Technology Solutions Ltd did the webstore, they have two directors, a husband and wife by the looks of it (not the Kirbys!). Company is based in Oxfordshire.

A less-than-thorough Google didn't turn up a connection between Ms Lathbury/Kirby and Red or the individual directors


Hmm, must have got my wires crossed then.


In July they hired a different company (Soak Digital Ltd, according to Soak's website) to do 3 ecommerce sites for them, which is interesting in that maybe it suggests they weren't that impressed with the webstore, and also suggests the speculation above hasn't much substance (on the basis that if it were true you'd keep funnelling money their way rather than all the way out to Norwich where Soak appear to be based).


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 13:17:00


Post by: Arschbombe


 techsoldaten wrote:

You're just baiting me and already know what I am going to say. Say it for me, nicely this time.


Er, wut?

No sure why you think I am baiting you. I think you have an interesting theory, but I don't think you have all the data to support it. It would be great if you could get several years worth of data from Ebay that would allow you to track 40k-related items listed over time. I think it would very interesting to see how the listings vary over the course of a year and overlay GW's release schedule to see if there are patterns. Even then I think you might be limited to some conclusions about the popularity of a codex which would still only approximate quality.
.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 13:56:52


Post by: Accolade


 Toofast wrote:
I[...]Profits are broadly in line with what you would expect from a company that doesn't do market research or marketing in 2014."


This part kills me


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 Stormonu wrote:
It then rapidly rose until peaking around 2011 at around the 700's. There was a small surge coinciding with 6th's release, but since that time, the stock has been steadily dropping. What's disturbing is that 7th's release didn't even make a speed bump (like 6th) in the stock's slow grind downward.


7th IMO did way more harm than it did good. It may have addressed some gaming issues like a lot of people say and may actually *be* a much better product than 6th...but that doesn't change the fact that it showed us GW is willing to accelerate the entire rule cycle and start over again in half the time of their previous editions. It also finally eliminated the illusion that GW is working towards a better set of rules, instead focusing on swinging the pendulum wildly back-and-forth to try to force players to have to play keep-up. And I think these realizations have really dissuaded vets and new players alike, and as such I don't see this cycle reversing for a long time. I doubt Tom Kirby really cares though, all according to plan presumably.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 14:13:49


Post by: MWHistorian


 Toofast wrote:
If GW were honest in their prpreamble:
"Our profit is down because revenue is down. Revenue is down because we've pissed off half our customer base, we don't do any market research to figure out how/why our customers are leaving or how to retain the ones we still have and we don't do any marketing to get new customers to make up for all the ones that left. Therefore, we expect our profits to continue to fall because we don't know what we're doing wrong in the first place and have no intention to try and figure it out. Profits are broadly in line with what you would expect from a company that doesn't do market research or marketing in 2014."

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the winner of the internets for today.
But yes, no market research has to be the most problematic of their business tactics.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 14:27:57


Post by: techsoldaten


 Arschbombe wrote:
 techsoldaten wrote:

You're just baiting me and already know what I am going to say. Say it for me, nicely this time.


Er, wut?

No sure why you think I am baiting you. I think you have an interesting theory, but I don't think you have all the data to support it. It would be great if you could get several years worth of data from Ebay that would allow you to track 40k-related items listed over time. I think it would very interesting to see how the listings vary over the course of a year and overlay GW's release schedule to see if there are patterns. Even then I think you might be limited to some conclusions about the popularity of a codex which would still only approximate quality.
.


Yeah, I don't plan on doing detailed research on this topic, but please feel free to devote your time to that effort now that you understand the concept.

My original post was meant to point out how secondary markets might be cannibalizing GW's new model sales, and how this relates to the company's recent earnings.

Most of the responses I have gotten from this thread conflate Codex quality with individual experiences instead of market perception. Like when you asked if it's time to sell your Word Bearer's army now or when the new Codex comes out, it sounds like you think I am trying to come up with a predictive model for pricing (which is not possible).

The only thing I could possibly offer you is the idea that, if you don't like GW, sell your models on eBay as cheaply as possible. If you do like GW, ask for something closer to new model prices. And sell the army, not individual units. What actually matters is whether or not you are blocking the sale of new products by offering cheaper alternatives.

I seriously believe if enough people offered to sell their armies online with a average price per model of $1, GW would be out of business in less than 12 months. Looking at their actual profits, this group of people does not need to be a very large, probably less than a thousand.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 16:26:07


Post by: Saldiven


 Stormonu wrote:

From what I see, GW is going to hit the 300's in about 18 months; I suspect that is when GW will start have financial problems as it starts dipping into reserves and flat-lines on profits. In about 36 months, if there isn't some drastic changes, they'll be back in the 100's for stock value. If GW doesn't do something to turn things around by that time, I'm pretty sure they'll be on the brink of bankruptcy.


Stocks getting to this point would be pretty grim for GW.

For clarification, GW stocks being traded on the London stock exchange means their prices are reported in pence, not USD. Currently a stock price of between 100-199 pence is equivalent to roughly $1.50-$3.00 per share.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 16:49:20


Post by: agnosto


Shares are up nearly 14 pence today on higher than average volume (33k shares vs. 24k average). It's a low volume stock so a relatively large buy can swing the stock sharply up.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 16:49:33


Post by: AlexRae


When GW revenue drops far enough for them to be unable to pay the same dividends, the price will drop as people ditch their investment.

That's when you'll see changes.

I presume a company like Hasbro is just waiting around for the current board to drive the company value down low enough for them to pick up a bargain.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 16:55:23


Post by: Toofast


 techsoldaten wrote:
 Arschbombe wrote:
 techsoldaten wrote:

You're just baiting me and already know what I am going to say. Say it for me, nicely this time.


Er, wut?

No sure why you think I am baiting you. I think you have an interesting theory, but I don't think you have all the data to support it. It would be great if you could get several years worth of data from Ebay that would allow you to track 40k-related items listed over time. I think it would very interesting to see how the listings vary over the course of a year and overlay GW's release schedule to see if there are patterns. Even then I think you might be limited to some conclusions about the popularity of a codex which would still only approximate quality.
.


Yeah, I don't plan on doing detailed research on this topic, but please feel free to devote your time to that effort now that you understand the concept.

My original post was meant to point out how secondary markets might be cannibalizing GW's new model sales, and how this relates to the company's recent earnings.

Most of the responses I have gotten from this thread conflate Codex quality with individual experiences instead of market perception. Like when you asked if it's time to sell your Word Bearer's army now or when the new Codex comes out, it sounds like you think I am trying to come up with a predictive model for pricing (which is not possible).

The only thing I could possibly offer you is the idea that, if you don't like GW, sell your models on eBay as cheaply as possible. If you do like GW, ask for something closer to new model prices. And sell the army, not individual units. What actually matters is whether or not you are blocking the sale of new products by offering cheaper alternatives.

I seriously believe if enough people offered to sell their armies online with a average price per model of $1, GW would be out of business in less than 12 months. Looking at their actual profits, this group of people does not need to be a very large, probably less than a thousand.


Ebay has been around a LONG time now, and for as long as I can remember there have been GW products on ebay. However, there are some people (like me) who will always prefer NIB so they don't have to fix the mistakes of other people. My time is worth something, and if I have to strip, clean mold lines and re base 10 models to save $10-15, it just isn't worth it. Also, some people enjoy building models and don't want to buy things that have already been built. The problem is as GW continues to raise prices and make people quit because of their terrible rules, even people like me will eventually turn to ebay and the second hand market in general. Whether it will be enough to really affect their sales is up for debate. GW didn't have a problem selling stuff 10 years ago and there were just as many armies on ebay then as there are now.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 17:04:32


Post by: Azreal13


AlexRae wrote:
When GW revenue drops far enough for them to be unable to pay the same dividends, the price will drop as people ditch their investment.

That's when you'll see changes.


I'm not actually sure we will, at least not on the same scale as we did back in January when the first drop in revenue and profits came to light. I'm of the opinion that many of the investors who would cut and run have already been shaken loose, and that the solid majority of stakeholders now are hunkered down and prepared to try and ride things out. Any of the institutions wishing to divest themselves of their share will likely do so off the floor, as dumping 15% or so of a company's shares onto the trading floor will drop the value of their own investment, which just leaves Kirby and a bunch of smaller scale investors who have decided to wait and see. Of course, if the results are really bad, then the whole situation will alter.


I presume a company like Hasbro is just waiting around for the current board to drive the company value down low enough for them to pick up a bargain.


One can hope! Although, on the grounds of better the devil you know, I'd rather the finances drove the board to stand down and we got some more forward thinking individuals in to replace them, rather than end up with 40Klix.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 17:28:27


Post by: Colpicklejar


Can I ask a dumb question? How is it that GW can be doing bad financially when (what I have seen) their every release has instantly sold out? I mean we had people talking about buying two or three Deathstorm boxes at a time, and people buying tactical objective decks seconds into their release. What's the deal?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 17:33:18


Post by: Azreal13


Because without numbers available "selling out" is meaningless.

We have seen some LE codexes hang around for weeks with only a few hundred declared available.

Smaug sold out in minutes, but there were only a few hundred available, and I reckoned, using GW's average production costs, that it only made them £30K. For a company that needs to be turning over £110m+ to make a profit, that's just a tiny amount.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 17:34:02


Post by: Blacksails


 Colpicklejar wrote:
Can I ask a dumb question? How is it that GW can be doing bad financially when (what I have seen) their every release has instantly sold out? I mean we had people talking about buying two or three Deathstorm boxes at a time, and people buying tactical objective decks seconds into their release. What's the deal?


How many units are being sold?

Its not hard to sell something out internationally if you're only putting 500 (hypothetical only, not the actual or guessed amount) out there. We don't know the actual volume of sales, so its largely irrelevant if they sold out or not.

*Edit * Oh for...44 secs.

Foiled again.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 17:48:50


Post by: Ravenous D


 Colpicklejar wrote:
Can I ask a dumb question? How is it that GW can be doing bad financially when (what I have seen) their every release has instantly sold out? I mean we had people talking about buying two or three Deathstorm boxes at a time, and people buying tactical objective decks seconds into their release. What's the deal?


Its because they don't sell out. Its artificial hype, they've done it for a few years now, they do smaller runs and they sell out to create hype. The webstore "sold out" is particularly dishonest in the sense that they are given an allotment of product despite the fact it is the most direct source the company has.

Just to make it easier, lets say they give the webstore 150 copies of something for preorder, and give each of their stores 15 copies on release day. The webstore is all of north America, so even 2 or 3 pre orders from each GW store alone will run their stock out and generate hype to go buy it day of.

To make it worse we don't know the numbers, for all we know the webstore gets 15 copies as well. All in an effort to funnel people into their sell bot stores.

Automatically Appended Next Post:
 Azreal13 wrote:
Because without numbers available "selling out" is meaningless.

We have seen some LE codexes hang around for weeks with only a few hundred declared available.

Smaug sold out in minutes, but there were only a few hundred available, and I reckoned, using GW's average production costs, that it only made them £30K. For a company that needs to be turning over £110m+ to make a profit, that's just a tiny amount.


To be exact they only had 200 available worldwide.

Ironically for the same price you can get one the same size that is already painted from WETA workshop.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 18:46:48


Post by: Shadow Captain Edithae


 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Is this the moment that GW's crops wither and die, its children piteous deaths?

Like most people, I haven't a clue when it comes to net profits, gross profits, currency flow etc etc

So, in one friendly sound bite, can anybody answer this question: is this GW's inevitable decline and demise?


Decline? Yes.

Demise? Eventually.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 18:53:53


Post by: Azreal13


 Blacksails wrote:
 Colpicklejar wrote:
Can I ask a dumb question? How is it that GW can be doing bad financially when (what I have seen) their every release has instantly sold out? I mean we had people talking about buying two or three Deathstorm boxes at a time, and people buying tactical objective decks seconds into their release. What's the deal?


How many units are being sold?

Its not hard to sell something out internationally if you're only putting 500 (hypothetical only, not the actual or guessed amount) out there. We don't know the actual volume of sales, so its largely irrelevant if they sold out or not.

*Edit * Oh for...44 secs.

Foiled again.


That's 30-15 to me in ninja tennis I think?




GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 20:54:49


Post by: Baragash


 Colpicklejar wrote:
Can I ask a dumb question? How is it that GW can be doing bad financially when (what I have seen) their every release has instantly sold out? I mean we had people talking about buying two or three Deathstorm boxes at a time, and people buying tactical objective decks seconds into their release. What's the deal?


New products could be doing great guns (subject to the "false" supply comments above), but underlying sales could have dropped off a cliff.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 21:42:57


Post by: frozenwastes


techsoldaten wrote:
I seriously believe if enough people offered to sell their armies online with a average price per model of $1, GW would be out of business in less than 12 months. Looking at their actual profits, this group of people does not need to be a very large, probably less than a thousand.


If we set concerted efforts aside, I still think you are pointing out an interesting situation that GW has created.

In going after lower volume sold to less people at higher prices, GW has created a very large ex-customer base that have existing products they no longer use. And at the same time, the higher prices means that there is more room to sell second hand at a higher price. Their actions have basically created competition from their ex customers. The only thing that's missing though is any data at all about how big the second hand market actually is. What the total of auctions for GW product that finish on eBay is. How much product changes hands via private sales in person and on message boards. It's entirely possible that GW has already felt the impact of the second hand market they basically created by both turning customers into ex-customers and driving prices high enough that people will take the time to sell it rather than have it sit in a closet.

Though perhaps GW doesn't really consider this competition because they seem very, very focused on the success of new releases over existing products. In the Chapterhouse Studios lawsuit, GW provided some sales numbers and other than some basic space marine stuff like tactical squads and battleforce boxes, the sales were high on new releases and then rapidly dropped off after that.

So maybe all this second hand product doesn't actually impact GW's sales of new releases that much. Other than it diverts money away from new product and into the secondary market.

AlexRae wrote:
I presume a company like Hasbro is just waiting around for the current board to drive the company value down low enough for them to pick up a bargain.


Hasbro doesn't buy hurting companies and turn them around. Throughout their entire history as a company, they have only ever bought out successful companies and their management has never, ever made any noise about changing that plan or bargain hunting. GW simply doesn't fit the profile of the type of company Hasbro likes to buy. If someone buys GW out, it'll be someone else.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 22:04:39


Post by: Azreal13


Worth noting that GW seem to have gone after recasters much harder than usual recently - there was a thread recently about one site closing down altogether, and another, much larger, site I browse frequently for other goods (but also look at the prices of some recast kits and wonder how much development costs really are) has seemed to have fewer recasts on sale, and those that remain on sale frequently have no pictures and some message to the effect of they're keeping their heads down because GW are on the march.

Could well be a symptom of something they previously considered not worth investing significant effort into, but are now increasingly chasing down anything they perceive as a possibility of scraping together an extra few thousand in revenue.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 22:08:02


Post by: Shadow Captain Edithae


 Azreal13 wrote:
Could well be a symptom of something they previously considered not worth investing significant effort into, but are now increasingly chasing down anything they perceive as a possibility of scraping together an extra few thousand in revenue.


Which is self defeating, considering how much money they've been bleeding to legal fees.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 22:10:03


Post by: Azreal13


That also fits the other possibility, is that they now have a legal dept with fewer demands on their time, and therefore can chase down these lower priorities now CHS is done.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 22:10:32


Post by: Accolade


 Azreal13 wrote:
Worth noting that GW seem to have gone after recasters much harder than usual recently - there was a thread recently about one site closing down altogether, and another, much larger, site I browse frequently for other goods (but also look at the prices of some recast kits and wonder how much development costs really are) has seemed to have fewer recasts on sale, and those that remain on sale frequently have no pictures and some message to the effect of they're keeping their heads down because GW are on the march.

Could well be a symptom of something they previously considered not worth investing significant effort into, but are now increasingly chasing down anything they perceive as a possibility of scraping together an extra few thousand in revenue.


Going after recasters, while extremely difficult and most-likely fruitless, is at least WAY more sane than going after third-party bits makers/children's book authors and turning yourself into a villain in the public's eyes!


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 22:11:33


Post by: Steelmage99


frozenwastes wrote: If someone buys GW out, it'll be someone else.


After the recent Days of Wonder- Asmodee-Fantasy Flight Games merger, they could be a contender.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 22:23:27


Post by: Surtur


Steelmage99 wrote:
frozenwastes wrote: If someone buys GW out, it'll be someone else.


After the recent Days of Wonder- Asmodee-Fantasy Flight Games merger, they could be a contender.


I'm actually not so sure about that. Ffg isn't really a miniature manufacturer. Even with xwing they don't really have a wargame target audience. Xwing is more of a board game style wargame than a true wargame in the traditional sense. I can't see them keeping the wargame in its present form. It would likely be shredded down to boardgames, the lcg and rpg


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 22:26:26


Post by: Azreal13


What better company for a game manufacturer that isn't really a mini manufacturer to acquire than an organisation which owns literally every link in the production chain and can support enough volume for global sales?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 22:43:34


Post by: Morathi's Darkest Sin


 frozenwastes wrote:


If we set concerted efforts aside, I still think you are pointing out an interesting situation that GW has created.

In going after lower volume sold to less people at higher prices, GW has created a very large ex-customer base that have existing products they no longer use. And at the same time, the higher prices means that there is more room to sell second hand at a higher price. Their actions have basically created competition from their ex customers. The only thing that's missing though is any data at all about how big the second hand market actually is. What the total of auctions for GW product that finish on eBay is. How much product changes hands via private sales in person and on message boards. It's entirely possible that GW has already felt the impact of the second hand market they basically created by both turning customers into ex-customers and driving prices high enough that people will take the time to sell it rather than have it sit in a closet.

Though perhaps GW doesn't really consider this competition because they seem very, very focused on the success of new releases over existing products. In the Chapterhouse Studios lawsuit, GW provided some sales numbers and other than some basic space marine stuff like tactical squads and battleforce boxes, the sales were high on new releases and then rapidly dropped off after that.

So maybe all this second hand product doesn't actually impact GW's sales of new releases that much. Other than it diverts money away from new product and into the secondary market.


Got me thinking.. so I went and checked my ebay account.. since 2004 I've sold somewhere in the region of £14K of stuff.. I'd say 90-95% of that was 2nd hand GW stuff I no longer wanted, or had to sell for funds. Scary thought if you start multiplying that by former or even current GW fans.. I've probably brought a couple of grands worth this year as well... still totally active but also selling any excess.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 22:50:36


Post by: Kilkrazy


 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:
 Azreal13 wrote:
Could well be a symptom of something they previously considered not worth investing significant effort into, but are now increasingly chasing down anything they perceive as a possibility of scraping together an extra few thousand in revenue.


Which is self defeating, considering how much money they've been bleeding to legal fees.


The reason that GW bled such a lot into legal fees the past few years is that their case against Chapter House was fundamentally flawed, unjust and unwinnable.

GW's case against a blatant recaster is open and shut.

Back to the topic of the second hand market.

IMO the majority of people who want to buy secondhand are different to GW's target market. And they are the kind of people who want rules as well as models, but they don't want secondhand old rules, they want the latest rules much cheaper. (To the extent that they want the new rules at all, rather than wanting a completely revised set of rules that hasn't been issued yet.)

Therefore I don't see the secondhand market undermining sales of the new expensive models, nor do I see it rejuvenating the disgruntled veterans like myself.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 22:52:27


Post by: Yodhrin


 Azreal13 wrote:
Worth noting that GW seem to have gone after recasters much harder than usual recently - there was a thread recently about one site closing down altogether, and another, much larger, site I browse frequently for other goods (but also look at the prices of some recast kits and wonder how much development costs really are) has seemed to have fewer recasts on sale, and those that remain on sale frequently have no pictures and some message to the effect of they're keeping their heads down because GW are on the march.

Could well be a symptom of something they previously considered not worth investing significant effort into, but are now increasingly chasing down anything they perceive as a possibility of scraping together an extra few thousand in revenue.


Unfortunately for GW the websites for these guys were just glorified catalogues, they do all their business via word of mouth and emails, and unlike the entertainment industry GW doesn't have the clout to force Google to knock search results for recasters down their rankings. Yet again GW are akin to a plumber on the Titanic tightening up a leaky pipe to stop it sinking; recasters only exist because GW's prices and availability shenanigans have gotten so bad that some guys in China can afford to cast up GW's products in polyurethane resin and ship them anywhere in the world for a third of what GW charge and still make a tidy profit for themselves - China aren't suddenly going to start respecting international copyright law, GW can't affect people's ability to do business with recasters beyond causing them mild inconvenience, nor do they have the influence to attack the problem through governments or 'net infrastructure, literally the only thing GW controls in this situation are the prices they themselves charge.

Of course even if they recognise that, they'll doubtless react in the same way the entertainment industry has, because the idea that these companies just have to accept reality whether they like it or not and actually compete with file sharing/recasters seems to just make them get angrier and sink even further into denial.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 22:56:57


Post by: Kilkrazy


It's the legal system, not the prices.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 23:02:44


Post by: frozenwastes


 Morathi's Darkest Sin wrote:

Got me thinking.. so I went and checked my ebay account.. since 2004 I've sold somewhere in the region of £14K of stuff.. I'd say 90-95% of that was 2nd hand GW stuff I no longer wanted, or had to sell for funds. Scary thought if you start multiplying that by former or even current GW fans.. I've probably brought a couple of grands worth this year as well... still totally active but also selling any excess.


I don't think selling 14k over 10 years is typical at all. I think the average person who gets into a GW game, gets out and sells their stuff second hand is probably going to be in the few hundred range, if that.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 23:06:06


Post by: Yodhrin


 Kilkrazy wrote:
It's the legal system, not the prices.


Sorry not quite following, can you clarify?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 23:22:12


Post by: Kilkrazy


There used to be a prolific recaster in the UK several years ago when prices were lower. He was successful because actually the cost of recasting the pieces is pretty low. He didn't need high FW prices or low resin prices to make a profit. Unfortunately for him, he got nailed by the UK legal system (helped along by some DakkaDakka members).

The reason why Chinese recasters are successful is not pricing, it is the difficult of attacking them legally.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 23:33:03


Post by: Steelmage99


 Azreal13 wrote:
What better company for a game manufacturer that isn't really a mini manufacturer to acquire than an organisation which owns literally every link in the production chain and can support enough volume for global sales?


Yeah, I was thinking along those lines.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 23:37:22


Post by: Thud


 Kilkrazy wrote:
The reason why Chinese recasters are successful is not pricing, it is the difficult of attacking them legally.


To be fair, I think £30 Revenant Titans may have something to do with it too.

Another point about the prices is the combination with their location. Average wages in Shanghai (wages vary a lot between provinces in China, and most of the recasters are based in Shanghai) are around £7,000-8,000 a year plus maybe another £1k in bonuses for white collar workers. And with GW shops there having the same prices as in the UK, and the general attitude towards fake products, the recasters are able to build up a decent base of local, repeat customers who ensure a stable base income. One of the bigger operations (whose shop name GW, ironically, now seems to be copying :p) even have a brick and mortar store. Quite fascinating, really.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 23:47:07


Post by: loki old fart


People keep saying if the share price drops enough, hasbro or another company may step in and buy GW.
Why would they? Since the chapterhouse fiasco, whats left to buy?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 23:56:02


Post by: Yodhrin


 Kilkrazy wrote:
There used to be a prolific recaster in the UK several years ago when prices were lower. He was successful because actually the cost of recasting the pieces is pretty low. He didn't need high FW prices or low resin prices to make a profit. Unfortunately for him, he got nailed by the UK legal system (helped along by some DakkaDakka members).

The reason why Chinese recasters are successful is not pricing, it is the difficult of attacking them legally.


Right, I did mention that in my post. My point was that the issue for GW is not whether recasters can be successful individually, it's whether recasters as a group impact GW's success. Just like with file sharing, there will always be some portion of a target market that will, if they can, buy cheap knockoffs, and just as with file sharing there is a factor outwith GW's control which makes it essentially impossible to stop. GW can either accept that and use the factors they do control to minimise the number of people buying knockoffs, or keep wasting time taking ineffectual swipes at the recasters while their business practices and pricing structure drives more and more people to buy from them.

People can debate the morality of it all they like, these things exist and are not going away, but what the whole file sharing stramash has shown is that if you make things available in a convenient way on terms the customer finds appealing and at a reasonable price, you can successfully "compete with free"(or in this case, much much cheaper).


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/11 23:56:33


Post by: Azreal13


 loki old fart wrote:
People keep saying if the share price drops enough, hasbro or another company may step in and buy GW.
Why would they? Since the chapterhouse fiasco, whats left to buy?


A lot of machinery, a lot of moulds, a lot of stuff they do own, at least within the scope of wargaming, and a level of customer awareness beyond anything else within the sector.

Plus a large customer base and a substantial number of customers champing at the bit to re-engage should things improve.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 00:01:07


Post by: Steelmage99


 loki old fart wrote:
People keep saying if the share price drops enough, hasbro or another company may step in and buy GW.
Why would they? Since the chapterhouse fiasco, whats left to buy?

Well, the IP obviously, and one of the important words there is "may".

But you bring up a relevant point. One of the really horrible possible outcomes might be that GW hangs on over the abyss for the next 10 or so years. Slowly dropping in value on a downward trajectory, and dragging the IP itself down too.
If they then go out of business the IP might be worth nothing.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 00:02:09


Post by: loki old fart


 Azreal13 wrote:
 loki old fart wrote:
People keep saying if the share price drops enough, hasbro or another company may step in and buy GW.
Why would they? Since the chapterhouse fiasco, whats left to buy?


A lot of machinery, a lot of moulds, a lot of stuff they do own, at least within the scope of wargaming, and a level of customer awareness beyond anything else within the sector.

Plus a large customer base and a substantial number of customers champing at the bit to re-engage should things improve.


A lot of moulds for products they may not own the IP for.
Alot of machinery in england, when they will most likely want to produce in china.
And a brand thats almost toxic.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 00:11:46


Post by: Azreal13


A somewhat pessimistic view IMO.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 00:15:24


Post by: loki old fart


 Azreal13 wrote:
A somewhat pessimistic view IMO.


Maybe. But if I'm right things don't look good, do they.
Could 40k carry on with the books we have. and third party manufactures?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 00:24:20


Post by: Sean_OBrien


 Azreal13 wrote:
 loki old fart wrote:
People keep saying if the share price drops enough, hasbro or another company may step in and buy GW.
Why would they? Since the chapterhouse fiasco, whats left to buy?


A lot of machinery, a lot of moulds, a lot of stuff they do own, at least within the scope of wargaming, and a level of customer awareness beyond anything else within the sector.

Plus a large customer base and a substantial number of customers champing at the bit to re-engage should things improve.


I wish I had pictures of some of the industrial auctions I have been too. You would be amazed at how little machinery, molds and other stuff that companies own actually goes for. The last one I saw had the entire assembly line cut up and loaded into dump trucks for scrap metal without anyone bothering to consider even reusing it.

The IP and customer base looks to be becoming worth less and less each year. Many of their old customers have become happily engaged with other companies - and have grown out of their Grim Dark youth.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 00:25:34


Post by: weeble1000


 Yodhrin wrote:
 Azreal13 wrote:
Worth noting that GW seem to have gone after recasters much harder than usual recently - there was a thread recently about one site closing down altogether, and another, much larger, site I browse frequently for other goods (but also look at the prices of some recast kits and wonder how much development costs really are) has seemed to have fewer recasts on sale, and those that remain on sale frequently have no pictures and some message to the effect of they're keeping their heads down because GW are on the march.

Could well be a symptom of something they previously considered not worth investing significant effort into, but are now increasingly chasing down anything they perceive as a possibility of scraping together an extra few thousand in revenue.


Unfortunately for GW the websites for these guys were just glorified catalogues, they do all their business via word of mouth and emails, and unlike the entertainment industry GW doesn't have the clout to force Google to knock search results for recasters down their rankings. Yet again GW are akin to a plumber on the Titanic tightening up a leaky pipe to stop it sinking; recasters only exist because GW's prices and availability shenanigans have gotten so bad that some guys in China can afford to cast up GW's products in polyurethane resin and ship them anywhere in the world for a third of what GW charge and still make a tidy profit for themselves - China aren't suddenly going to start respecting international copyright law, GW can't affect people's ability to do business with recasters beyond causing them mild inconvenience, nor do they have the influence to attack the problem through governments or 'net infrastructure, literally the only thing GW controls in this situation are the prices they themselves charge.

Of course even if they recognise that, they'll doubtless react in the same way the entertainment industry has, because the idea that these companies just have to accept reality whether they like it or not and actually compete with file sharing/recasters seems to just make them get angrier and sink even further into denial.


Exalted. This is incredibly true.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 00:27:04


Post by: Sean_OBrien


 loki old fart wrote:
 Azreal13 wrote:
A somewhat pessimistic view IMO.


Maybe. But if I'm right things don't look good, do they.
Could 40k carry on with the books we have. and third party manufactures?


Sure. Most games never die. At least, not within any sort of measurable time period. You can still find people playing almost everything...granted, once the retail viability passes, then it becomes a cult classic, only known to the hip and cool.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 00:36:00


Post by: Azreal13


If GW shut down tomorrow, we'd have an exciting and engaging fan made ruleset and a solidly balanced set of codexes by Easter.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 00:38:12


Post by: Talys


Recast models are actually only a good value for $100+ pieces. On cheaper units, often the price difference is quite small, or, even cheaper to get legit models.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 00:41:45


Post by: loki old fart


 Azreal13 wrote:
If GW shut down tomorrow, we'd have an exciting and engaging fan made ruleset and a solidly balanced set of codexes by Easter.


If thats the case roll on GW's demise.
Because the rubbish GW's put out isn't balanced, exciting, or engaging.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 00:45:54


Post by: Azreal13


 loki old fart wrote:
 Azreal13 wrote:
If GW shut down tomorrow, we'd have an exciting and engaging fan made ruleset and a solidly balanced set of codexes by Easter.


If thats the case roll on GW's demise.
Because the rubbish GW's put out isn't balanced, exciting, or engaging.


The downside being that without a central, coherent source for new releases, we'd wouldn't have any new units. Not that it wouldn't still leave an enormous amount to work with, but entropy would ultimately kill it IMO, but there'd be plenty of fun to be had on the way!


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 00:48:40


Post by: Sean_OBrien


 Azreal13 wrote:
 loki old fart wrote:
 Azreal13 wrote:
If GW shut down tomorrow, we'd have an exciting and engaging fan made ruleset and a solidly balanced set of codexes by Easter.


If thats the case roll on GW's demise.
Because the rubbish GW's put out isn't balanced, exciting, or engaging.


The downside being that without a central, coherent source for new releases, we'd wouldn't have any new units. Not that it wouldn't still leave an enormous amount to work with, but entropy would ultimately kill it IMO, but there'd be plenty of fun to be had on the way!


And it would finally be true to fluff...


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 01:17:09


Post by: Yodhrin


Talys wrote:
Recast models are actually only a good value for $100+ pieces. On cheaper units, often the price difference is quite small, or, even cheaper to get legit models.


I don't know where you're looking, but that's really not accurate.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 02:26:36


Post by: Toofast


All the recasts I've seen are 40-60% of full retail whether it's a $40 tac squad or a $400 titan. I just can't see the point of buying a recast to save $15. When it saves $200, then I'm tempted.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 02:34:58


Post by: Stormonu


 Surtur wrote:
Steelmage99 wrote:
frozenwastes wrote: If someone buys GW out, it'll be someone else.


After the recent Days of Wonder- Asmodee-Fantasy Flight Games merger, they could be a contender.


I'm actually not so sure about that. Ffg isn't really a miniature manufacturer. Even with xwing they don't really have a wargame target audience. Xwing is more of a board game style wargame than a true wargame in the traditional sense. I can't see them keeping the wargame in its present form. It would likely be shredded down to boardgames, the lcg and rpg


I dunno - FFG is already doing the GW RPGs, and they held Dust for a while as well. If they had the finances, I could see them picking 40K and Fantasy up. Though I imagine they'd retool many of the minis down the line (possibly as snap-fit kits) and you KNOW they'd rewrite the game to use their custom funky dice.

But I bet it'd be a hell of a lot better than the game that exists now.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 02:58:29


Post by: Cergorach


The sky is falling! GW is making less profit then the year before!

Profit anything over 4% is luxury, as someone pointed out, his yearly avarage was 6% , plus current value of the stock. Do share holders wnt more then that? Of course!

At the current rate it's going to take a couple of years to go below that threshold and it has enough cash reserves to wether a few years of running a loss. And history has shown us that gw can do turnbouts if things get really bad. Were just not there yet, not even close, going to take another half a decade at this rate...

Honestly I think the whole LE thing is hurting GW more then it's helping. I wanted to order 34 Deathstorm boxed sets through a (web)store, sorry we won't even get that much, because your a really good customer we can give you four... Had to use multiple stores and addressess to get a total of 10 boxed sets. This issue has happened with Space Hulk, the army boxes, recent hardcovers, etc. Folks don't always have the cash on hand to buy at GW prices right away and sometimes want multiples, let customers buy when and how much they want.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 03:02:13


Post by: Azreal13


Cergorach wrote:
And history has shown us that gw can do turnbouts if things get really bad.



They have?

There's been two occasions when they've been in trouble and turned things around, a management buyout and LotR.

They guy who did the former is still in charge, and the latter is now barely an afterthought in terms of sales.

I'm curious where you think the next turnabout is going to come from? Because it is far easier to read the situation as a group of people out of ideas throwing a lot of mud in the hope that some sticks.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 03:34:53


Post by: Shadow Captain Edithae


Imagine if they got the game of thrones licence...


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 03:41:25


Post by: Azreal13


I'm pretty sure Kirby has expressed GW's desire to only concentrate on their own products in one of the reports.

Control freak GW doesn't like being told what to do by other people.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 04:18:49


Post by: Sean_OBrien


 Azreal13 wrote:
I'm pretty sure Kirby has expressed GW's desire to only concentrate on their own products in one of the reports.

Control freak GW doesn't like being told what to do by other people.


Interestingly enough - that was right after the first LotR drop...

As opposed to focusing on their own products - they subsequently took Specialist Games out back and shot them in the head (granted, by that time...they were already on life support anyway). They continued with LotR (granted, they didn't bother to feed and water the property for several years). Doubled down with the Hobbit (and doubled the prices). And now - release a $500 limited edition Smug the Dragon.

GW has shown that if anything, you can definitely take them at their word...


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 06:12:53


Post by: Toofast


How has GW been able to turn things around? Their numbers were terrible so they rushed out a new edition and a bunch of big kits, slashed costs to the bone and released $50 supplements with 2 pages of rules and $150-250 limited edition codexes and the numbers are STILL trending down. Everything they've released lately, from dice to campaign boxes to a board game to a $500 dragon is "limited edition! Get it now before they're all gone". This is a sign of a company that
a) has no clue how to guage customer interest/product demand
b) is desperate for every possible sale, which means using sales tactics like that when they might end up selling less than they would if they just produced more of x item
c) is deathly afraid of getting stuck with unsold stock sitting on shelves and bankrupting themselves TSR style
d) is well aware of their precarious financial position

The writing is on the wall here. If this report comes out and revenue has increased but profit is down, then I will believe their exchange rate excuse but right now they sound like a parent being caught by their child putting presents under the tree on xmas eve. Anyone who believes a word of their preamble at this point is either naive or willfully ignorant.



GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 06:16:32


Post by: Kilkrazy


Revenue also is affected by currency fluctuations.

The way to judge the effect of currency fluctuation is by comparing the sales in different territories year on year.

Interestingly, in last year's report, GW announced they were not going to report individual territory figures in future. That means that investors will not be able to judge for themselves the effect of currency fluctuations on revenue.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 06:17:18


Post by: Toofast


To my last point, market research is not 'otiose' in a niche market when nearly 12,000 of your customers sign a petition complaining about how much they don't like your company. When your revenue is in a steady decline, a significant portion of your customers are unhappy with your business and you rely solely on said customers to gain new ones, market research is not otiose, it should be your number one priority if you have any intention of trying to turn things around. You've been throwing stuff at the wall to see what sticks and obviously it isn't working no matter how much you sugar coat terrible numbers with a rambling, barely coherent preamble full of ridiculous excuses.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 Kilkrazy wrote:
Revenue also is affected by currency fluctuations.

The way to judge the effect of currency fluctuation is by comparing the sales in different territories year on year.

Interestingly, in last year's report, GW announced they were not going to report individual territory figures in future. That means that investors will not be able to judge for themselves the effect of currency fluctuations on revenue.


Well isn't that convenient. Now they can use the exchange rate excuse whenever it's applicable and we really have no way of telling whether it's a valid reason or just another excuse. "Our revenue/profit is down because of X. We have evidence of X but we aren't showing it to you, you'll just have to take our word for it."


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 08:05:44


Post by: Howard A Treesong


 Toofast wrote:
Anyone who believes a word of their preamble at this point is either naive or willfully ignorant.



Most of their shareholders are companies not individuals from what I recall. They aren't interested in the peculiar preambles, they'll stay in until the dividends stop. The last share price drop came on the back of a refusal to pay dividends IIRC.. Once GW hit the point where they can't afford to pay them it, investors will place their money elsewhere.

I thought some years ago Kirby said words to the effect that their company wasn't affected by the global economy anyway, because they are a niche business. But now its all about the exchange rates.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 08:08:25


Post by: winterdyne


That'll work because GW FineShares(tm) are the stock market, and their investors exist in a vacuum with no other sharholdings in their portfolio to compare such claims against.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 08:19:00


Post by: Soteks Prophet


 Toofast wrote:
To my last point, market research is not 'otiose' in a niche market when nearly 12,000 of your customers sign a petition complaining about how much they don't like your company. When your revenue is in a steady decline, a significant portion of your customers are unhappy with your business and you rely solely on said customers to gain new ones, market research is not otiose, it should be your number one priority if you have any intention of trying to turn things around. You've been throwing stuff at the wall to see what sticks and obviously it isn't working no matter how much you sugar coat terrible numbers with a rambling, barely coherent preamble full of ridiculous excuses.


WHY are they still customers? All GW sees is 'customer' and doesn't care about the rest.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 08:25:39


Post by: AllSeeingSkink


winterdyne wrote:
That'll work because GW FineShares(tm) are the stock market, and their investors exist in a vacuum with no other sharholdings in their portfolio to compare such claims against.
The FineShareholders™ are also price insensitive. They simply enjoy holding on to their FineShares™, they don't care about things like dividends, stock prices and the company's future prospects.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 08:28:06


Post by: Pacific


 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:
Imagine if they got the game of thrones licence...


Definitely think there was an opportunity for that, and also the Star Wars license from when the Prequels came out years ago.

Regardless of what you think of those films, imagine some sci-fi form of LoTR that hooked in gamers in the same way. Think we would be seeing a very different picture now, that's for sure.

But, it's going to be FFG that reap the spoils of that license now.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 09:10:20


Post by: Herzlos


 Azreal13 wrote:

The downside being that without a central, coherent source for new releases, we'd wouldn't have any new units. Not that it wouldn't still leave an enormous amount to work with, but entropy would ultimately kill it IMO, but there'd be plenty of fun to be had on the way!


It doesn't seem to be hurting Blood Bowl too much.

 Soteks Prophet wrote:
 Toofast wrote:
To my last point, market research is not 'otiose' in a niche market when nearly 12,000 of your customers sign a petition complaining about how much they don't like your company. When your revenue is in a steady decline, a significant portion of your customers are unhappy with your business and you rely solely on said customers to gain new ones, market research is not otiose, it should be your number one priority if you have any intention of trying to turn things around. You've been throwing stuff at the wall to see what sticks and obviously it isn't working no matter how much you sugar coat terrible numbers with a rambling, barely coherent preamble full of ridiculous excuses.


WHY are they still customers? All GW sees is 'customer' and doesn't care about the rest.


May of them are ex but potential customers, or customers who may leave, or just aren't spending as much as they would. Sure some of them still buy, but 12,000 dissatisfied customers is a lot worse a prospect than 12,000 compliant customers. New customers cost something like 5x more to gain that it costs to retain existing customers.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 09:52:43


Post by: Talys


 Howard A Treesong wrote:
 Toofast wrote:
Anyone who believes a word of their preamble at this point is either naive or willfully ignorant.



Most of their shareholders are companies not individuals from what I recall. They aren't interested in the peculiar preambles, they'll stay in until the dividends stop. The last share price drop came on the back of a refusal to pay dividends IIRC.. Once GW hit the point where they can't afford to pay them it, investors will place their money elsewhere.

I thought some years ago Kirby said words to the effect that their company wasn't affected by the global economy anyway, because they are a niche business. But now its all about the exchange rates.


The exchange rates thing is actually not as silly as it sounds, and should not be hard to validate. It works like this:

The USD price of a model does not change as GBP fluctuates. So, if GBP goes up, the sale price of export units actually drops (since the customer or store pays in USD). That is, the $100 might have been 50GBP at one point, but 45GBP later. This is easy to validate if GW releases unit volumes; and easy to deduce if they provide regional sales figures.

If, in 2014, GW sold as much or more stuff as 2013, but made less money on it because USD dropped in value relative to GBP, this is not an issue for GW (because they aren't cash-strapped or highly leveraged). Remember, the pendulum could swing the other way. If GBP becomes very weak relative to USD, increased profits maybnot mean the company is actually performing better, at least in the sales volume metric.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 10:07:21


Post by: techsoldaten


 Toofast wrote:

Ebay has been around a LONG time now, and for as long as I can remember there have been GW products on ebay. However, there are some people (like me) who will always prefer NIB so they don't have to fix the mistakes of other people. My time is worth something, and if I have to strip, clean mold lines and re base 10 models to save $10-15, it just isn't worth it. Also, some people enjoy building models and don't want to buy things that have already been built. The problem is as GW continues to raise prices and make people quit because of their terrible rules, even people like me will eventually turn to ebay and the second hand market in general. Whether it will be enough to really affect their sales is up for debate. GW didn't have a problem selling stuff 10 years ago and there were just as many armies on ebay then as there are now.


Yes, you are correct on all counts. There are a lot of people who like NIB stuff and it is usually not worth it to save $15 by buying someone else's models.

But things can change when the cost difference becomes larger. When you can pay around $200 for miniatures that would cost around $1,000 new, that might mean you are willing to deal with stripping models and cleaning mold lines. Well, not you in particular, but some people. The cost difference is not always that huge, but there are times it gets to that point.

It's not limited to used models, either. I would bet that you would take a 20% discount to get new models from the Warstore, which demonstrates what I am saying - people will normally seek ways of getting the most while spending the least.

This is the secondary market, and, like you pointed out, it has been around a long time. The secondary market itself will never kill the primary market (actually, it depends on it), but it does compete with the primary market on the sale of models for GW games. Every time someone chooses to buy something in the secondary market instead of the primary market, it hurts GW's revenue because they will not get that sale back in the future. This is something GW is very aware of, and you can see how they deal with it by the policies they enforce on the web and with FLGSes. The secondary market is the reason they have restrictions on where their high quality photos can be used, on what independent retailers can sell online, and on what models other retailers are actually allowed to sell. The company does not want to compete with itself, so they create restrictions on the use and placement of their marketing materials. They want to earn more on the things they sell, so they only sell some models through their fancy new webstore.

My original point was that costs on the secondary market may sometimes be driven by people's attitudes and perceptions on the quality of new Codexes. I am not trying to prove this point conclusively, but I did share the observation that there were a lot of Ork armies available on eBay and places like Dakka around the time the new Codex was released. I was able to purchase smaller Ork armies for a cost of around $2 a model, which is very low (about 13%) compared to what these models would have cost new. It lead me to buy a few new models as well (through eBay, at a discount), but the overall cost was about 20% of what I would have spent to buy an entirely new army.

What I am really wondering is whether GW is sabotaging the primary market by selling Codexes with poor rulesets. I find this to be a simpler way to explain the decline in profitability than the currency fluctuations the company described in their latest financial reports. GW had a lot of new releases over the last year, so they should be enjoying increased overall sales to account for the volatility of international monetary policy. Anyone who regularly reads financial reports is probably wondering about this too.

To take this a little further, I am not that different than you and can relate to everything you said. Much of my enjoyment of the hobby comes from painting and I always like getting new models.

But the economics of the hobby are constantly changing and the pace of change accelerated dramatically in the last few years. My experiences with GW date back to the 80s. I remember when it was possible to go into a GW store, plop down a few hundred dollars, and come out with everything you need to build an entire army (including paints). It was very common for players to have multiple armies, and I can think of a lot of people who would start a new one every year.

These days, the fact that models cost more makes it less affordable for most people to buy an entire army all in one blast. Someone might be able to get a HQ and a couple squads for a few hundred dollars, but it could take years and cost thousands of dollars to be able to afford a satisfyingly large force. This might not apply to you in particular, but most people, even impulse buyers, are going to put more thought into purchases of that amount. This is especially true for people that have already spent money on their first army and feel bad rulesets are limiting their enjoyment of the game. They are going to do a little research online to understand what they are getting themselves into precisely because they want to enjoy the game, and because they fear being stuck with an expensive mistake.

I can see this happening in my FLGS, where kids will come in with lists they printed off the net and ask someone to help them order all the parts. They usually can't afford half of what they seek and sometimes go away without buying anything. Often, the armies they are looking to buy are Tau or Eldar, and there's a good chance they already own a Space Marine army. I see a lot of other things going on too, which I don't really want to get into now.

There's this other point related to decline in profits that I am still working up to. GW may losing consumers looking to own multiple armies to the secondary market. When GW releases a new model, I think it's important for them to sell more than just that model. To be successful, they have to drive people's interest in making a bigger step and starting a new army. This is why new models and new Codexes tend to come out at the same time.

The evidence this is not happening is in the financials. Given the number of new releases this year, why are we not seeing increased profits based on more people starting new armies? If GW is not executing on this part of their sales plan, what does that mean for the secondary market? I would love to hear from people who own FLGSes that offer discounts and what kinds of sales they saw when new Codexes were released.



GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 10:21:20


Post by: Looky Likey


Quality is a nebulous term though, and includes other nebulous terms such as competitiveness within the meta, if its fluffy, fun builds, reuse of existing model particularly if its models that didn't work in the previous codex, and new models. Everybody has differing preferences for those categories and the overall mix for them.

GW should operate a similar model to MtG for each new codex: release a counter to last high powered thing and new high powered thing in next release, repeat. Both should be based on new models and the models should combine good rules and an attractive model at the right price. The Knights were like this, they sold a ton on launch, but they failed to capitalise on this by not having enough variety in the codex and by not launching supplements for them quick enough.

Too often GW release a cool looking model with rubbish rules or a rubbish looking model with good rules, rarely do they get both right. If they could do one thing it would be to improve the ratio of hits to misses.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 11:16:07


Post by: techsoldaten


 Looky Likey wrote:
Quality is a nebulous term though, and includes other nebulous terms such as competitiveness within the meta, if its fluffy, fun builds, reuse of existing model particularly if its models that didn't work in the previous codex, and new models. Everybody has differing preferences for those categories and the overall mix for them.

GW should operate a similar model to MtG for each new codex: release a counter to last high powered thing and new high powered thing in next release, repeat. Both should be based on new models and the models should combine good rules and an attractive model at the right price. The Knights were like this, they sold a ton on launch, but they failed to capitalise on this by not having enough variety in the codex and by not launching supplements for them quick enough.

Too often GW release a cool looking model with rubbish rules or a rubbish looking model with good rules, rarely do they get both right. If they could do one thing it would be to improve the ratio of hits to misses.


Well, I am starting to realize quality is a polarizing term, and I really only used it for the sake of convenience. Maybe a better way to talk about quality is to say people's perceptions of the rules contained the Codex are the driving factor here. You are absolutely right to say quality means different things to different people, but the term really only matters a) as the rules relate to someone's enjoyment of the game and b) as the rules impact what GW is able to sell.

But seriously, how do you explain spending $1,000 on a game and selling off your purchases for 20% of the original value? Tell me how the value of a model depreciates by 80% over the course of 5 years when the identical model has gone up in retail value? The common logic around selling used miniatures is that they are worth around 50% of what they originally cost, there has to be some explanation for this happening. Sure, some people make bad deals, but I was seeing a lot of them. If people were really satisfied with their armies, I would have expected to be seeing a range of prices that averaged out to something much closer to 50%.

I don't really think it would be productive to try and chart data about cost per model on eBay relative to Codex release dates, because that only describes the secondary market while GW is only focused on the primary. The only evidence that matters is the company's financial performance in the primary market, which is what we get from GW's financial reports. Secondary markets can be driven by a lot of factors that are difficult to track, but this time it looked like people rage quitting after a long period of frustration. I think people were expecting something better in the new Codex release, whatever you want to call it, and gave up when they didn't get it.

With regards to your points about how GW's sales philosophy should be adapted to game theory, I disagree that this is a good approach precisely because we have already seen them do power escalation releases with Tau and Eldar. This has been happening at the army-wide level and it drove purchases for those armies without benefitting the GW product line as a whole. Again, GW makes it's money from people buying armies, not individual models, and their production cycles are too long for them to be constantly tweaking the product lines. What you suggest would represent a radical change to their production process, which, like you said, really only seems to suffer from the fact they can't seem to get the coolness of the rules and the models aligned at the right time. There's ways to solve that without changing the sales process.

There's clearly a complex problem here. I would be surprised if there was a simple solution. I suspect the only real solutions are for GW to be focused more on the secondary market. They have done everything they can with independent resellers short of terminating their relationships, yet there's still an avenue to severely cutting the cost to get a new army. FWIW, I am completely satisfied with the Ork miniatures I was able to buy, they were assembled properly, painted to a high tabletop standard, and clearly well cared for.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
This is all making me think how much I used to love going into a GW store, looking through all the blisters, and buying something just because I thought it looked cool. That would sometimes lead to me starting an army.

Anyone remember those days? Still do it?


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 12:13:35


Post by: Cergorach


 Azreal13 wrote:
Cergorach wrote:
And history has shown us that gw can do turnbouts if things get really bad.



They have?

There's been two occasions when they've been in trouble and turned things around, a management buyout and LotR.

They guy who did the former is still in charge, and the latter is now barely an afterthought in terms of sales.

I'm curious where you think the next turnabout is going to come from? Because it is far easier to read the situation as a group of people out of ideas throwing a lot of mud in the hope that some sticks.

Have you even read the financial reports from the last decade?
No one knows for sure how ell gw was doing before the management buyout, that information isn't public.
The lotr deal was made when gw was still growing every year and making a profit. During the lotr period revenue and profit actually stopped growing, many attributed that to gws focus on lotr instead of their own properties. The lotr deal only started gaining ground after the deagostini release of the weekly magazine nad miniatures.

Things turned around for gw after major cost cutting initiatives and Assault on Black Reach.

Are you just spewing? Or trolling? Because what your saying has no basis in reality, aka. The numbers that are publicly available.

I don't like a ton of what gw has been doing the last couple of years. Higher prices stopped me from buying most gw products, unless of course it' a very good deal like these starter and campaign boxes. Bought a bunch of da veteran sprues to get the two limited sm captains. Before that a couple of boxes of csm jump troops for conversion purposes. The rest was all very good deals through second hand market. If i compare those purchases to 5-7 years ago... A drop in the bucket... The only rulebook i bought are the small rulebooks i got with the starter sets... My last bought codex armybook is from before they went hardcover, before that i own them all. I'm a 40k and wfb fan, i stopped being a gw fan something like 15-20 years ago. That doesn't mean i'm blind with either love or hate for gw, like some folks here seem tobe...

Ps. Typing this on an ipad creates a lot of typing mistakes, sorry!


Automatically Appended Next Post:
@techsoldaten:
If you can consistently get 80% off on the secondary market for 5 year old products, we would all still be playing 5E.

But my experience is that you don't even get close to that discount even on the horribly assembled and painted minis, certainly not from 5 years ago. The only experience I ever got with a 80% discount on GW minis is buying up all the GW inventory from a store that was cleaning up it's inventory drastically and someone that dumped everything GW related in a big box and wanted €50 for it, eventually I restored €250 worth of product from the box. I consider a very good deal 2/3 off, usually it's badly painted, sometimes badly constructed, and often comes with a lot of minis I don't want. I usually see 50% off on mediocre paint jobs and halfass assemblies. This while I can get 20% off from a webstore and a army box gets it then down to 40% off (NIB). So I'm not paying 50% off for minis I have to strip and repair. Not even touching the startersets, Space Hulk and the new campaign sets (stormclaw and deathstorm yet). Take what I want, sell the rest.

The only painted/assembled minis I won't strip come from one guy that was selling his Warmachine Cygnar, Hordes Trollbloods, and LotR. Awesome paint jobs, professional assembly and a very good price (about 2/3 off msrp). Those kinds of deals are rare and far between.

I generally sell complete kits (unpainted) still on sprue for 40% off MSRP. Unpainted kits with bits missing 50% off MSRP. The Terminators from the deathstorm set 60% off. etc. I'm limited to what was available at a good discount (which army boxes are in stock), what I bought (aka. what I want/need), and how much demand there is for them... Same with 2nd hand items I want to buy at a decent discount.

As a side note, stuff from retailers generally comes with free shipping if you buy x amount, not so with second hand items. Shipping has become quite expensive, thus making 2nd hand items even more unattractive.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 14:30:10


Post by: Looky Likey


 techsoldaten wrote:
Well, I am starting to realize quality is a polarizing term, and I really only used it for the sake of convenience. Maybe a better way to talk about quality is to say people's perceptions of the rules contained the Codex are the driving factor here. You are absolutely right to say quality means different things to different people, but the term really only matters a) as the rules relate to someone's enjoyment of the game and b) as the rules impact what GW is able to sell.

But seriously, how do you explain spending $1,000 on a game and selling off your purchases for 20% of the original value? Tell me how the value of a model depreciates by 80% over the course of 5 years when the identical model has gone up in retail value? The common logic around selling used miniatures is that they are worth around 50% of what they originally cost, there has to be some explanation for this happening. Sure, some people make bad deals, but I was seeing a lot of them. If people were really satisfied with their armies, I would have expected to be seeing a range of prices that averaged out to something much closer to 50%.

I don't really think it would be productive to try and chart data about cost per model on eBay relative to Codex release dates, because that only describes the secondary market while GW is only focused on the primary. The only evidence that matters is the company's financial performance in the primary market, which is what we get from GW's financial reports. Secondary markets can be driven by a lot of factors that are difficult to track, but this time it looked like people rage quitting after a long period of frustration. I think people were expecting something better in the new Codex release, whatever you want to call it, and gave up when they didn't get it.

With regards to your points about how GW's sales philosophy should be adapted to game theory, I disagree that this is a good approach precisely because we have already seen them do power escalation releases with Tau and Eldar. This has been happening at the army-wide level and it drove purchases for those armies without benefitting the GW product line as a whole. Again, GW makes it's money from people buying armies, not individual models, and their production cycles are too long for them to be constantly tweaking the product lines. What you suggest would represent a radical change to their production process, which, like you said, really only seems to suffer from the fact they can't seem to get the coolness of the rules and the models aligned at the right time. There's ways to solve that without changing the sales process.

There's clearly a complex problem here. I would be surprised if there was a simple solution. I suspect the only real solutions are for GW to be focused more on the secondary market. They have done everything they can with independent resellers short of terminating their relationships, yet there's still an avenue to severely cutting the cost to get a new army. FWIW, I am completely satisfied with the Ork miniatures I was able to buy, they were assembled properly, painted to a high tabletop standard, and clearly well cared for.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
This is all making me think how much I used to love going into a GW store, looking through all the blisters, and buying something just because I thought it looked cool. That would sometimes lead to me starting an army.

Anyone remember those days? Still do it?
Your argument has the second hand market as a disease infecting GW's profit , shutting down the second hand market (which would never be possible as the second hand market is more like the common cold) would be curing the disease, I would rather they immunise against the disease. This immunisation would be through improving retention, if they can keep vets enthused and preferably buying new product to use along side old product then that should reduce the volume on sale, which in turn would drive up second hand prices due to lower supply.

My point was that by releasing better quality product vets are more likely to expand their army with the latest release as it compliments and extends the army's current capabilities.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 15:38:13


Post by: techsoldaten


 Looky Likey wrote:
Your argument has the second hand market as a disease infecting GW's profit , shutting down the second hand market (which would never be possible as the second hand market is more like the common cold) would be curing the disease, I would rather they immunise against the disease. This immunisation would be through improving retention, if they can keep vets enthused and preferably buying new product to use along side old product then that should reduce the volume on sale, which in turn would drive up second hand prices due to lower supply.

My point was that by releasing better quality product vets are more likely to expand their army with the latest release as it compliments and extends the army's current capabilities.


I see where you are going, but that's really overstating the point.

GW already does a lot to keep the secondhand market suppressed with a) their policies about usage of their images and b) their policies for independent retailers around sales volume, web marketing and availability of miniatures.

When you talk about "immunizing" vets, that would be through the release of new Codexes, right? Wouldn't it seem strange to you if vets were selling off their armies very cheap when new Codexes came out? It might make someone think there's a problem here...


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 17:07:43


Post by: Vermis


loki old fart wrote:
 Azreal13 wrote:
If GW shut down tomorrow, we'd have an exciting and engaging fan made ruleset and a solidly balanced set of codexes by Easter.


If thats the case roll on GW's demise.
Because the rubbish GW's put out isn't balanced, exciting, or engaging.


On that note, it's my opinion that if GW tanked and 40K was put on the same playing field as other, better, possibly compatible rulesets that are 'dead', free or cheap, that'll kill it all the sooner. GW's conditioning and market presence are already starting to fail; when they're completely gone I can't see many good reasons for anyone to consciously choose 40K for theiir sci-fi gaming.

Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:Imagine if they got the game of thrones licence...


Let's not. Their muckups of Peter Jackson's muckups were painful enough. Don't repeat it with HBO's muckups.

(NEW! The Citadel Game of Thrones Petyr Baelish's 'establishment' comes with fifteen highly detailed plastic whores! Relive the awkwardness of the hit TV series as they sit in the middle of your gaming table and stick out like a sore thumb while the real story unfolds! All for just seventy... No eighty Kirby-Kwids!)

Soteks Prophet wrote:
WHY are they still customers? All GW sees is 'customer' and doesn't care about the rest.


I signed it. I've bought so little and so irregularly from GW the past few years, you could go ahead and call me an ex-customer. I do.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 17:28:50


Post by: Saldiven


Cergorach wrote:
Things turned around for gw after major cost cutting initiatives and Assault on Black Reach.


But they didn't actually "turn around." They stayed largely static, if you seriously analyze the data.

Prior to the last two years, profits had been largely static for years beforehand. This static profit was despite the cost-cutting and price increases. The only way that can happen is if unit sales have dropped.

I'm not sure how you categorize that as having "turned around" their situation.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 17:31:45


Post by: Yodhrin


Saldiven wrote:
Cergorach wrote:
Things turned around for gw after major cost cutting initiatives and Assault on Black Reach.


But they didn't actually "turn around." They stayed largely static, if you seriously analyze the data.

Prior to the last two years, profits had been largely static for years beforehand. This static profit was despite the cost-cutting and price increases. The only way that can happen is if unit sales have dropped.

I'm not sure how you categorize that as having "turned around" their situation.


To be fair, he might have been referring to the share price, which did recover to a degree after they started down their current path, mainly because it seems the investors don't give a flying fig about the company in the long term as long as it stays just healthy enough in the right-now to keep pumping out dividends.


GW Shares Drop As Operating Profit Falls Vs LY - NEW report for 1/2015 page 21 @ 2014/12/12 19:21:48


Post by: TedNugent


I'm not buying at these prices until they fix the rules.