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Made in gb
Ian Pickstock




Nottingham

 azreal13 wrote:
 BryllCream wrote:
silent25 wrote:
 troa wrote:
Them not supplying enough is not an indicator of financial trouble...Logic it a little bit, and you get either A) their suppliers are not holding their end of the bargain, which is not GW's fault(though it will result in them needing new suppliers potentially), or B) they under-forecast their need, and thus sold way more than they thought they would leading to a shortage. That's generally a GOOD sign for a company, if that's the case.

In short: It's not a sign of anything, don't try to read into it. What you're insinuating is like saying Nintendo is screwed because they couldn't keep up with demand for the Wii for months when it came out initially.


Hastings over at Warseer claimed the Tau debacle was a result of not enough boxes being printed by the company that supplies GW boxes. It was not due to a lack of production capabilities at GW. People reported getting generic white boxes from GW for their Tau orders.

printing a box consists of opening the design in the appropriate folder and clicking 'print'. I seriously doubt they ran out of boxes.


If they outsource their printing there's many reasons why they could have fallen short, either by their own error or the printer. That printer likely has other client orders to fulfil, so even if they were liable, it would take time to correct.

If the company that provided my work with boxes/packaging went "d'oh we didn't supply enough, sorry. Oh and we won't be able to get you any more for a few months because we have other orders to fulfil" they'd be dropped instantly.

And if they have other orders to fulfil, tough gak. Bring in an overtime shift to do it. Manufacturing is a lot better than "whoops we didn't do it, gonna have to wait a few months".

Naaa na na na-na-na-naaa.

Na-na-na-naaaaa.

Hey Jude. 
   
Made in gb
Yu Jing Martial Arts Ninja




London

 BryllCream wrote:
 azreal13 wrote:
 BryllCream wrote:
silent25 wrote:
 troa wrote:
Them not supplying enough is not an indicator of financial trouble...Logic it a little bit, and you get either A) their suppliers are not holding their end of the bargain, which is not GW's fault(though it will result in them needing new suppliers potentially), or B) they under-forecast their need, and thus sold way more than they thought they would leading to a shortage. That's generally a GOOD sign for a company, if that's the case.

In short: It's not a sign of anything, don't try to read into it. What you're insinuating is like saying Nintendo is screwed because they couldn't keep up with demand for the Wii for months when it came out initially.


Hastings over at Warseer claimed the Tau debacle was a result of not enough boxes being printed by the company that supplies GW boxes. It was not due to a lack of production capabilities at GW. People reported getting generic white boxes from GW for their Tau orders.

printing a box consists of opening the design in the appropriate folder and clicking 'print'. I seriously doubt they ran out of boxes.


If they outsource their printing there's many reasons why they could have fallen short, either by their own error or the printer. That printer likely has other client orders to fulfil, so even if they were liable, it would take time to correct.

If the company that provided my work with boxes/packaging went "d'oh we didn't supply enough, sorry. Oh and we won't be able to get you any more for a few months because we have other orders to fulfil" they'd be dropped instantly.

And if they have other orders to fulfil, tough gak. Bring in an overtime shift to do it. Manufacturing is a lot better than "whoops we didn't do it, gonna have to wait a few months".


The fault may not be on the printer. If GW intern types 100 instead of 1000 and sends the order, the mistake is all GWs part and they'd have to slot in the queue for additional prints.
   
Made in gb
Ian Pickstock




Nottingham

Or they could do an overtime shift. Unless the printer is operating at 100% capacity - which would be highly unusual anyway, but in this recession is basically impossible - printing more boxes wouldn't be a problem. Any factory that couldn't react quickly to a customer's increase/decrease in demand would go out of business very quickly. Orders in factories can change on a daily, even hourly basis.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/05/22 11:22:44


Naaa na na na-na-na-naaa.

Na-na-na-naaaaa.

Hey Jude. 
   
Made in au
Boom! Leman Russ Commander





Brisbane, Australia

 Kilkrazy wrote:
I've always had generic white boxes for GW stuff ordered by post to the store. There's no point printing a box that doesn't have to sell itself off the shelf.


Isn't this fairly obvious?

 
   
Made in gb
Regular Dakkanaut



Southampton, UK

Then again, if the boxes are printed in China, like the books are, it still might take a while to get them here.

I'm pretty sure with most printers you book your print run several months in advance. If your forecast changes in that time you don't get to increase the original run, you schedule a second run.
   
Made in au
Boom! Leman Russ Commander





Brisbane, Australia

Printers need to be cooperative with their buyers, not rigid and difficult.

 
   
Made in gb
Stalwart Veteran Guard Sergeant






Lincolnshire

 BryllCream wrote:
Or they could do an overtime shift. Unless the printer is operating at 100% capacity - which would be highly unusual anyway, but in this recession is basically impossible - printing more boxes wouldn't be a problem. Any factory that couldn't react quickly to a customer's increase/decrease in demand would go out of business very quickly. Orders in factories can change on a daily, even hourly basis.


Having worked previously in the printing industry both paper and plastics this is wrong, most industrial printers if the type games workshop use will be running machines 24/7, always the case in factories i worked in. Competition for large scale print volume is not terribly fierce either unless you go abroad but then your accepting even longer lead times, as such the customer does not always have a lot of choice then to wait.

Also printers probably have larger and more valuable custom then games workshop, you would not for example pull a coca cola order off the line for anything.

Though you may be slightly wrong about that, i would say your correct in thinking they would not have run out of boxes, why order less boxes then you have product, also in printing the larger the order the cheaper it will be. I doubt games workshop deal with small run print orders
   
Made in gb
Infiltrating Broodlord






THanks salad fingers for actually bringing the facts into the argument. I've commissioned a lot of printing. In this case, it's not only printing the boxes, it's die-cutting them to shape, and if you're rigid on costs the machine time will be scheduled well in advance. Yes, you can change print runs and increase machine time, but then you'll be paying rush fees. GW will have flexibility with their own machinery, but not with their contractors.

I don't believe the boxes are printed in China; the books have a high unit cost, which makes shipping them halfway across the world worthwhile. Boxes won't be, as they have a low unit cost and shipping costs will be prohibitive.

I so love how many people here know more about the printing and scheduling business than GW. Much the same as, on the How Much Is GW worth thread, we have people who, having bought GW products, know far more about their financial health than city analysts and pension funds managers. (Not that I necessarily have huge respect for the latter, but still...)

   
Made in gb
Heroic Senior Officer





Ramsden Heath, Essex

The boxes are printed in China.

As evidence by the fact that they have made in China on them.

The sprues are made in the UK.

How do you promote your Hobby? - Legoburner "I run some crappy wargaming website "

Neromunda: Serpents Embrace - Delaque
1000 cycles to success - Necromunda Battle Reports from SMOG TOWN 
   
Made in gb
Ian Pickstock




Nottingham

Good point. That's what you get for outsourcing a supply process I guess

Naaa na na na-na-na-naaa.

Na-na-na-naaaaa.

Hey Jude. 
   
Made in us
[DCM]
GOOGLE IT!





Idaho

 notprop wrote:
The boxes are printed in China.

As evidence by the fact that they have made in China on them.

The sprues are made in the UK.


Not all the sprues are made in the UK. I have spoken to GWs chinese plastics company on the phone. They have an office in San Fransisco.



 
   
Made in us
Regular Dakkanaut




Massachusetts

Im no finacial wizard but GW is fine. Supply issues, as someone who has done 16 years in retail (17 in September), happen. No way around it. You can only crank out as much as you take in and if you dont make it in house your up da creek. Cranking out a new 40k codex or Fantasy codex every other month is perhaps a sign that GW may have woken up and bring everyone up to date before doing a new rule set. Whos left for the 'oldest book club' in 40k?? SIsters and Templars??

<--Bolt on Cuteness: S:20,No armour save, no invul save, no cover save, Range:unlimited---DEAL
complete 1st and 3rd company-about 1/3 2nd
8k points
 
   
Made in gb
[DCM]
Tried being reasonable, didn't like it.





Devon, UK

Hivefleet Oblivion wrote:
THanks salad fingers for actually bringing the facts into the argument. I've commissioned a lot of printing. In this case, it's not only printing the boxes, it's die-cutting them to shape, and if you're rigid on costs the machine time will be scheduled well in advance. Yes, you can change print runs and increase machine time, but then you'll be paying rush fees. GW will have flexibility with their own machinery, but not with their contractors.

I don't believe the boxes are printed in China; the books have a high unit cost, which makes shipping them halfway across the world worthwhile. Boxes won't be, as they have a low unit cost and shipping costs will be prohibitive.

I so love how many people here know more about the printing and scheduling business than GW. Much the same as, on the How Much Is GW worth thread, we have people who, having bought GW products, know far more about their financial health than city analysts and pension funds managers. (Not that I necessarily have huge respect for the latter, but still...)


So who are you to say those people are wrong? Do you have a lengthy background in the finance sector, or are you just as under qualified to call these people out on their opinion as you allege they are to offer it?


We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
When there is no peril in the fight there is no glory in the triumph - Pierre Cornielle
 Kavish wrote:
Azrael is gorgeous! I want to have his babies!

Ask me about our club, based in Devon, Uk
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Barnstaple-Slayers-Gaming-Club/185603011549268 
   
Made in gb
Infiltrating Broodlord






azreal13 wrote:

So who are you to say those people are wrong? Do you have a lengthy background in the finance sector, or are you just as under qualified to call these people out on their opinion as you allege they are to offer it?



Well, re this discussion, I've commissioned a few millions pounds' worth of printing, which happens to be what people are talking about. I'm certainly not suggesting I know more than those who work as financial analysts - I know about Dunning-Kruger syndrome. There's a lot of it about.

   
Made in gb
Tunneling Trygon






I'm an accountant with a large international accountancy firm and deal with plenty of exits/IPOs etc.

The real push on keeping costs down and accelerated release schedule does seem to be indicative of either pressure from the VC houses to retain income per share at current levels or a likely exit for certain shareholders trying to maximise value before they go.

The issue with shortages of new stock is likely that there has been such pressure on not over-ordering, holding too much stock in warehouses etc they ended up shorting themselves against initial day one demand. Farily typical of companies where too much managements is by cost management rather than maximising sales volume. Not down to lack of finances, more down to bad planning and management.

if they carry on at this rate they get through almost all the codexes/army books in the next 18 months and then what? Atrophy I feel.

"We didn't underestimate them but they were a lot better than we thought."
Sir Bobby Robson 
   
Made in gb
Lord Commander in a Plush Chair





London

My wife worked at a smallish printers and I can assure you that the idea that if you don't order enough stuff can be remedied by the print staff dropping everything and going overtime to fulfil your order won't wash. Printers run at full capacity, in fact they often take non profitable jobs because losing a small amount each hour is better than losing a lot per hour, which is what happens if you were to turn the machines off. They book schedule weeks in advance. They don't do a job and then sit around twiddling their thumbs waiting for another order, these machines don't go cold. If you order the wrong amount of something they aren't going to compromise other customers orders to accommodate you.

Anyone thinking they can just work overtime and churn out the extra orders somehow are talking nonsense. Maybe you'll have a slot allocated, maybe you won't, and you'll pay a lot more for expecting a last minute job, if they can do it.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/05/22 15:38:24


 
   
Made in gb
[DCM]
Tried being reasonable, didn't like it.





Devon, UK

Hivefleet Oblivion wrote:
azreal13 wrote:

So who are you to say those people are wrong? Do you have a lengthy background in the finance sector, or are you just as under qualified to call these people out on their opinion as you allege they are to offer it?



Well, re this discussion, I've commissioned a few millions pounds' worth of printing, which happens to be what people are talking about. I'm certainly not suggesting I know more than those who work as financial analysts - I know about Dunning-Kruger syndrome. There's a lot of it about.




"I've commissioned a few million pounds of printing" is barely more relevant than "I've spent thousands of pounds on petrol" would be if the discussion was about the oil industry.

There are people on here that have genuine knowledge, lawyers who post in the Chapterhouse thread, there was a market analyst who posted in the "GW Worth" thread, and Salad Fingers has direct experience in the print industry. I personally hold business qualifications, have operated in a fairly large company at mangement level and have run my own business. Sure, there may be some instances of DK Sundrome, but just because that's the case, it doesn't mean everyone knows nothing.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/05/22 15:09:15


We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
When there is no peril in the fight there is no glory in the triumph - Pierre Cornielle
 Kavish wrote:
Azrael is gorgeous! I want to have his babies!

Ask me about our club, based in Devon, Uk
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Barnstaple-Slayers-Gaming-Club/185603011549268 
   
Made in us
[DCM]
GOOGLE IT!





Idaho

Hivefleet Oblivion wrote:
azreal13 wrote:

So who are you to say those people are wrong? Do you have a lengthy background in the finance sector, or are you just as under qualified to call these people out on their opinion as you allege they are to offer it?



Well, re this discussion, I've commissioned a few millions pounds' worth of printing, which happens to be what people are talking about. I'm certainly not suggesting I know more than those who work as financial analysts - I know about Dunning-Kruger syndrome. There's a lot of it about.


I know this wasn’t meant for me but I am going to answer the question above with this quoted. Yes I work in the purchasing department of a large hospital for about 3 years. I buy things from manufactures and wholesalers I also maintain inventory to standards that make it equitable and auditable enough the hospital actually can barrow against it. I handle 8.2 million dollars of inventory. I also am in the process of buying my FLGS and am in the very, very, preliminaries of building a miniature line. I know a bit about financing though my degree is in Mass Communications with a minor in philosophy (not as worthless as some might think). So I can say I can say I know something about supply line and inventory management. Nothing in anything GW is doing points to any issues financially. I would bet my 3k points worth of FW Krieg on it. It does point to the being douche bags.
The strategy is simple:
1. Tell FLGS that stock will be low for release.
2. FLGS tells customer buy now or you will miss out.
3. FLGS buys as much as they can on TERMS or outside credit.
4. Customer buys as much as they can. Customers unable to get what needed buy from GW directly screwing the FLGS but still allowing them to pay off the terms. This is why GW hates online retail. feths their online retail.
5. FLGS pays terms quicker.
6. GW instead of waiting 45 days for term payments gets them paid in half the time.
7. GW is able to keep highly accelerated releases schedule due to higher cash flow which increases their EBIDA (this how you measure how much a company is worth).



 
   
Made in us
Dominar






There are currently two market analysts that appear to even pay attention to GW. I would guess both deal with small-caps. FWIW, both have a 'buy' rating on the company. I strongly suspect that their understanding of the company is a review of their financials and listening to company guidance. I would be amazed if they had any understanding of the fundamentals--tabletop wargaming--beyond comparison to other retail shopping-mall stores while factoring in their supply chain integration to some degree.

In 'gamer terms', that level of analysis is sort of like looking at a list construction, comparing it to the meta, and saying whether or not it's 'good'. It is probably the best level of analysis that can be obtained for an obscure small company, but it's very limited.

GW is a tiny company. It's rather naive to assume that a broad pool of fund managers--whether pension, index, or hedge--even know GW exists.

Ignoring the performance of GW stock --which is quite good, especially considering the dividend (which should be reflected by the stock price)--GW exists in a very, very 'unsexy' sector, some blend of traditional retail and toy manufacturing. They have very modest growth that has been a bit erratic in the last 5 years, the growth trajectory is nothing that would raise eyebrows, and liquidity is rather poor.

If you look at the volume traded as this stock has roared to new recent highs, it is actually very light, which is a big flag from someone evaluating trade opportunities.

TLDR: the professional trading community likely doesn't know GW exists. It's just not a fish big enough to hit the sonar screen. As a result, claims about pro financial analysis are like arguments over the color of yeti fur.

I play Warmahordes. It's simply a better game. 
   
Made in us
Regular Dakkanaut




Being backordered is a GOOD thing for a company. It means you have reliable income for as long as the orders last. This is just more trolling. Everyone wishes GW would be in trouble so they would have to restructure, but the sad thing is that they just aren't. They have a terrible business model but it's working for them. You're clearly concerned about your ability to get your hands on the models if you're worried about them being forced to put your order in a queue.
   
Made in gb
Ancient Ultramarine Venerable Dreadnought





UK

It has got to be impossible for GW to be in dire straits financially.

At the end of the day, even if their sales have fell a little, and I am guessing they will have lately, they are still selling plenty, and their prices have gone way up.

Also, I presume their overheads have dropped as well after dropping lines and cracking on with Kirbys evil regime, so, it's surely an impossibility that they are still shifting heaps of stuff (hence the Tau shortage) at a much bigger profit margin (endless price increases) and actually are in real trouble financially.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-30442507 She is right, moderates are wrong, it's right there in black and white. 
   
Made in us
[DCM]
GOOGLE IT!





Idaho

 sourclams wrote:


, and liquidity is rather poor.

.


This is why GW is using the "fast sale" marketing strategy



 
   
Made in us
Dominar






Can't tell if serious...

/squinty_eye

I play Warmahordes. It's simply a better game. 
   
Made in us
[DCM]
GOOGLE IT!





Idaho

 sourclams wrote:
Can't tell if serious...

/squinty_eye


I am sadly. “Fast sale” frees up cash, as I laid out in my GW is douche bags screwing FLGs rant before your post.



 
   
Made in us
Dominar






I was referring to the liquidity of their shares, as traded as an equity. Looks like a simple average of the last 15 days shows that GW PLC trades about 70k shares/day. Using an old trading rule of thumb that you rarely want to be more than 10% of the interest, it would require half of a month to invest a million dollars in GW .

And, the contra, should things go all pear-shaped and you need to get your money out, you're looking at more than two weeks (or you can 'blow out', which is also not desirable).

I was simply illustrating why a financial professional probably does not give a hoot about GW, assuming that they know it exists.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/05/22 17:23:46


I play Warmahordes. It's simply a better game. 
   
Made in us
[DCM]
GOOGLE IT!





Idaho

I agree



 
   
Made in gb
Regular Dakkanaut




 jonolikespie wrote:
They are still making a profit and their stock is dropping but neither of those things mean they are not in trouble, it just means that trouble hasn't punched them in the nuts yet.



Their stock isn't dropping, OK - it fell nearly 10p per share over the last 2 days, but it is still up nearly 30p from the start of the month. Currently at 721 - which is nearly the highest it has ever been.

This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2013/05/22 20:59:09


 
   
Made in us
Stitch Counter





Munga wrote:
Being backordered is a GOOD thing for a company. It means you have reliable income for as long as the orders last. This is just more trolling. Everyone wishes GW would be in trouble so they would have to restructure, but the sad thing is that they just aren't. They have a terrible business model but it's working for them. You're clearly concerned about your ability to get your hands on the models if you're worried about them being forced to put your order in a queue.
You've never been in manufacturing for retail sales, have you?

Being back ordered ties up funds in a non-liquid form.

Even when warehousing is limited back ordering is worse.

That said, this looks more like a supply chain problem, which can go wrong dozens of ways, with only a few of them meaning 'the company is in trouble! Bail!'

In honesty, I do think that GW is in mid to long term financial difficulties.

I also think that the current supply chain problems have little or nothing to do with those problems.

Correlation does not equal causation.

The Auld Grump

Kilkrazy wrote:When I was a young boy all my wargames were narratively based because I played with my toy soldiers and vehicles without the use of any rules.

The reason I bought rules and became a real wargamer was because I wanted a properly thought out structure to govern the action instead of just making things up as I went along.
 
   
Made in us
[DCM]
Wouldn't you like to know?






Exploring the beyond...

 Kroothawk wrote:
In recent years, GW made insane price hikes to compensate for lower sales and keep the revenue flat (adjusted for inflation). They didn't grow for 8 years ... in a growing market ... after they broke up with De Agostini that made all the needed advertising for the LOTR game and created the "LOTR bubble" (bubble because GW went back to non-advertising).

With the Hobbit, GW tried to double the prices. The market said "Are you crazy?" So you can still get the limited edition starters after 6 months that should have been sold in 3 days.

Yes.

It was the "doubled prices" and "no advertising" that made "The Hobbit" sell poorly.
It certainly had nothing to do with the fact that as far as 'action scenes' go "The Hobbit" was fairly devoid of them while each of the Lord of the Rings films had one or two pivotal big battle moments in each film.
   
Made in gb
[DCM]
Tried being reasonable, didn't like it.





Devon, UK

 Kanluwen wrote:
 Kroothawk wrote:
In recent years, GW made insane price hikes to compensate for lower sales and keep the revenue flat (adjusted for inflation). They didn't grow for 8 years ... in a growing market ... after they broke up with De Agostini that made all the needed advertising for the LOTR game and created the "LOTR bubble" (bubble because GW went back to non-advertising).

With the Hobbit, GW tried to double the prices. The market said "Are you crazy?" So you can still get the limited edition starters after 6 months that should have been sold in 3 days.

Yes.

It was the "doubled prices" and "no advertising" that made "The Hobbit" sell poorly.
It certainly had nothing to do with the fact that as far as 'action scenes' go "The Hobbit" was fairly devoid of them while each of the Lord of the Rings films had one or two pivotal big battle moments in each film.


This is very true, but as nobody had heard of it or could afford it, nobody found out.

We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
When there is no peril in the fight there is no glory in the triumph - Pierre Cornielle
 Kavish wrote:
Azrael is gorgeous! I want to have his babies!

Ask me about our club, based in Devon, Uk
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Barnstaple-Slayers-Gaming-Club/185603011549268 
   
 
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