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 Kriswall wrote:

 gwarsh41 wrote:
It's like asking what will replace reddit, facebook, dakka, or warseer. Yeah there are alternatives, but none of them will stand up unless something really drastic happens.

The same thing was once said of MySpace. Change does happen and it's not always predictable. If one of the big boys with deep pockets (think Hasbro or similar) decided to fund a Star Wars Table Top Game with models that are at least GW quality, people would flock from 40k to Star Wars in droves.

Can you imagine sitting at home and clipping Stormtrooper bits off the sprue? Converting up a custom Jedi? Debating the merits of Jink style saves on Speeder Bikes? I'd be so excited. The Star Wars IP juggernaut would bury 40k in a landslide.

Until then... 40k has such a ridiculous lead over the #2 scifi game that it's likely to still be #1 in 10 years.

There was one, prepainted collectable but still.

Not a bad game, I still play it from time to time.

As for what might disrupt, one thing Kirby's bizarre investor messages got right is that this is a niche hobby (unlike, say, sharing photos with friends). Building, painting, then playing an open-ended game with archane rules are 3 very niche desires and most people are not even interested in one, much less all 3 activities.

So the only bit disruption I see is (again) an open ended game that lets people pick the models they want, but with enough of a fan base you can actually find games.

Any challenger is going to have steal existing fans and continue to bring in new generations of fans, but I don't think there's much potential for a mass market unpainted mini game.

I mean if Hero Clix and Star Wars with their prepaints and massively popular IP can't break into the mass market...

It is something that we have not seen yet.

I actually think we will see a fragmentation of the market into more and smaller niches making it even more difficult and obtuse for new players to get involved in anything outside of their local. This will lead to more, smaller players int he wargames market and no dominant company in the future.

I think 40k is an anomaly, like Kid_Kyoto says it's such a niche hobby that it's a miracle that 40k managed to get where it is today. Basically, nothing will ever be as big as 40k again.

That's probably true.

Modern people don't necessarily understand that 40K didn't succeed because of its wonderful merits, it succeeded because GW had a massive retail chain, publishing business (games and magazine) and events promotion, that gave them a significant lock on the Fantasy/SF games market for a good 20 years, from the mid 1980s to the mid 2000s (LoTR era.)

This ecosystem made promotion of 40K very easy, and once it started to be widely played it got even more popular thanks to network effects.

Although GW are to some degree going in reverse now, it isn't going to be very easy for some other company to go down the same path that GW followed during their rise.

I would honestly be surprised if GW lasts for another ten years.

I will also be surprised if it lasts for less than two years.

It is possible that GW will pull out of its slump, and the 30K release seems like a good attempt at doing so.

But then I look at Age of Sigmar and my doubts return.

The Auld Grump

Kindom of the death wargame Double D action!

But seriously, Infinity and bolt action will be around i think, but if they will be the biggest or a unknown player will sweep in at take the bulk of the market we don't know

If 40K gets the AoS treatment, I wonder what the poll results would look like?

 snurl wrote:
If 40K gets the AoS treatment, I wonder what the poll results would look like?

40k got the AoS treatment so slowly over the years that some still didn't even notice

 lord_blackfang wrote:

 snurl wrote:
If 40K gets the AoS treatment, I wonder what the poll results would look like?

40k got the AoS treatment so slowly over the years that some still didn't even notice

All that's needed now is the final "no points" barrier to be removed in full, Go full unbound all the time, everytime!

10 or 20 years is a huge gap to meaningfully predict anything, for example 15 years ago GW's ultimate dominance over everything was certain and big red R was a company that would produce stunning fantasy models.

15 years later GW is a much smaller company with continuously shrinking market share big red R left us when they decided to make prepainted plastics and the market is filled with companies that 15 years ago would be unimaginable.

My prediction is nobody will be at GWs scale and nobody will be producing a game system at GWs scale, what is open to debate is if there will be a company (or many companies) that will buy other companies and have them as independent studios as is the case with the CG industry now, that could rival GW in size or be bigger, but, it would still do not produce games the scale GW does, for recent examples look at Asmodees acquisition of FFG.

GWs size is not a product of their massive retail chain (they never had a massive global retail chain) but a combination of been first producing good quality products been diverse and been lucky, no other company ever will have the luxury of been alone without competition for a decade, this allowed GW to solidify itself expand to the size they did and dictate their terms to the buyers audience, this also might be the major reason why GW is in the state of denial they are now, they have forgot how to face competition and how it is when they do not dictate the market.

This brings us to the “40k” replacement, there will in my opinion not be any company that will manage to push the model count GW pushes, the diminishing market is not only a reaction to the bad rules writing and expensive price but also and maybe more importantly a reaction to the time it needs to be invested both before even one games and during the game, such massive games are becoming more and more marginalized were people weight one game of 40k or 3 games of X game (or even playing two or 3 different games in that time) transportation is also a big consideration.

GW can still push for such massive games because they have a legacy of gamers that follow them for various different reasons, new companies will have great troubles pushing to such massive scales, Mantic that tries does at the really low end of GW’s scale and even then I am not sure how many use Mantics models and not just play a better and faster fantasy system with their already purchased GW armies.

The question I have is if GWs IP will stand the test of time, the new gamers have been raised with a different style of sci fi that what we have and the direction sci fi pushes is different from the archaic cyber gothic style GW goes, I am wondering how much appeal will the IP have in 10 years to an audience that has first played mass effect franchise played other games of that style and seen movies and cartoons of similar style?

If GW manages to survive in a position that allows it to influence the player base at the capacity they do now and their customer base manages to acquire enough new blood to sustain their bleeding then 40k probably might be the game of such scale in the future if they do not I do not see any game GW’s or anybody else’s that will demand the model count current 40k does, at best they will be as Antares and warpath now attempt and warmachine does (iirc) be at the (larger) size of 40k’s 2nd edition and this is where the logical limit for a 4x6 table is.

I believe the future will be more on the skirmish scale from squad size to platoon size and not to company+ sized games at least for 28+mm scale.

I play wargame since 40k 1st edition and the game was never perfect and there often was competition, some even with better rules, but nothing ever was there to stay.

Creatively speaking (converting, painting), 40k always has been and still is my favourite game and there has never been any serious competition.

The BEST game ever for me still is Epic (Armageddon).
And i can have fun with all the games i have.

In regard to a 28mm alternative.

I tried and played a few, but each system had holes in it, just as 40k has, only different ones.
Infinity came close to a skirmish ruleset, but with a huge hole in activation rules.
Maelstrom's Edge actually has my interest. But a good ruleset is not enough to make it.

The 40k setting has become a given.
It's no Star Wars or LoTR, but it's there and it is known to people beyond tabletop wargames.

The upcoming Heresy will sell, just because of that feeling of being able to "play known background history", the most important reason to play LoTR (which Heresy replaces by the way).
There is no other game i know that can do this but 40k.
It is being tried with Warmachine, great models, but that is small potatoes.

I put my money on 40k...

Additional: in regard to GW size. That can indeed vary. They were quite small as they started and they can get back to that if neccessary.

And that lets me think of the only serious possible competition in the near future: Spartan Games.
I find that company very comparable to how GW felt 25 years ago. Growing, enthousiastic, creative, still changing ideas, smal and very open.
Furthermore they now have HALO Fleet Battles, which is only the beginning. HALO is a franchise with a background that the world knows too. Next year we get a 15mm HALO game and a 28mm game is rumoured.
If that game has good rules, i would not be surprised that that game would quickly be the 2nd game after 40k.

GW's retail chain in the UK was a decisive advantage. It allowed them to eliminate nearly all retail opposition and capture probably 80% of the large and valuable UK fantasy/SF/RPG games market.

This was the springboard that enabled GW to launch internationally, providing the company not just with steady income but also the ability to develop and sell its own games with the advantages of economy of scale and vertical integration.

Yes, and up to a point it allowed them to also eliminate upcoming competition from the UK too, but I feel the significance their retail chain after their dominance is overrated and might be part of their problems after 200X, reality is their retail chain is causing them too many issues and is not responsible for the vast majority of their income.

Okay, if you want a serious mid-term prediction, there will not be a single game with the sort of playerbase GW games enjoy today.

The hobby is fracturing. There are more and more games available and that means the play groups are getting smaller. Instead of 50 people all playing 40k, you have X-wing, Warmahordes, Infinity, FoW... each taking one portion of that. And it will only get more extreme.

We'll see wargames become more self-contained and go OOP much faster, relying on high (crowdfunded) sales up front, providing a lifetime (read: until the next Kickstarter) supply of material to a playgroup with no need for further releases.

 Lithlandis Stormcrow wrote:

 lord_blackfang wrote:

 snurl wrote:
If 40K gets the AoS treatment, I wonder what the poll results would look like?

40k got the AoS treatment so slowly over the years that some still didn't even notice

All that's needed now is the final "no points" barrier to be removed in full, Go full unbound all the time, everytime!

You laugh, but Unbound is why my entire group dropped WH40K at the same time.

Folks just weren't happy with the direction taken by the most recent edition of WH40, and downright nasty about the last edition of Warhammer.

I think that some threshold of elasticity had been broken.

The question is which one... price, rules, or balance?

The Auld Grump, or maybe it was that the models started looking downright silly.

ORicK wrote:
I play wargame since 40k 1st edition and the game was never perfect and there often was competition, some even with better rules, but nothing ever was there to stay.

The difference here is the current competition has staying power, and have shown it. You might have issues with Infinitys activation system, but Corvus Belli have been steadily improving the game and their miniatures for 10 years, and their company and sales have shown year on year growth because of it. People have a lot of issues with how Warmachine plays, but it's also been around for 12 years. Malifaux is newer at 6 years, but have already made a move GW have found difficult for nearly 30 years - moving their entire line plastic. Wyrd have also diversified their product offerings, with an in house made RPG and a selection of card and board games.

The competition in the 90's and early 00's that GW had made mistakes, and GW profited from those mistakes. The competition that's still hanging around now have learned from those mistakes and are profiting from not making those mistakes. Really, the 'GW used to have competition, they'll outlast them like they used to' argument is as full of holes as you claim that other games are.

40k. It will drop in the long run, but it's so, so, so far ahead of its competitors that they still won't even come close.

Warmachine has stolen much of the 40k player base, Infinity co-exists next to the other game much more.

 Lockark wrote:
Warmachine has stolen much of the 40k player base, Infinity co-exists next to the other game much more.

It has? You have some data to reference there?

 cincydooley wrote:

 Lockark wrote:
Warmachine has stolen much of the 40k player base, Infinity co-exists next to the other game much more.

It has? You have some data to reference there?

That's not a good argument you know it can be countered simply by asking you to provide said data.

That been said the general perception is WMH was eating WHF sales and not 40k's at least not to a significant degree, one can of course assume it did, but assumptions are dangerous beasts, since we know the overall gaming scene is increasing the competitors may see growth while GW sees decline independently and that if it is true would be troubling for GW because one could again assume that the customers they bleed get out of the system for good, while the others draw from new sources which they failed to tap, again this just a possible scenario based on assumptions not actual data we do not have.

I think it's important to note that 40k is a very specific incarnation of 40k at the moment. And I don't think that version can exist forever. It's been steadily becoming Epic for years and now it might as well be. Epic started off as hype around Ttans, specifically set to the backdrop of the Horus Heresy then shifted focus to the brother on brother combat.

Why GW hasn't released an updated Adeptus Titanicus, with all the HH hype, is beyond me. So few sprues required.

Because their entire logic is based on selling the 28mm scale models at a premium rate on low volumes, epic is cheap and no matter what they do they cannot make it sell at a 40k model that's the reason they killed all specialists too, they do not care for lines that needs less than a 40k army.

On the low volume I mean they sell really low volumes when one considers what volumes should a plastic production really demand to be worth it, that been said they still sell massive volumes when one compares a specialist line with 40k.

 PsychoticStorm wrote:

 cincydooley wrote:

 Lockark wrote:
Warmachine has stolen much of the 40k player base, Infinity co-exists next to the other game much more.

It has? You have some data to reference there?

That's not a good argument you know it can be countered simply by asking you to provide said data.

That been said the general perception is WMH was eating WHF sales and not 40k's at least not to a significant degree, one can of course assume it did, but assumptions are dangerous beasts, since we know the overall gaming scene is increasing the competitors may see growth while GW sees decline independently and that if it is true would be troubling for GW because one could again assume that the customers they bleed get out of the system for good, while the others draw from new sources which they failed to tap, again this just a possible scenario based on assumptions not actual data we do not have.

I switched from 40k to WMH and I know several people who have. Also, go to the PP forums and you'll see many people that switched over from 40k specifically. I would say it's a significant degree.

PsychoticStorm wrote:

 cincydooley wrote:

 Lockark wrote:
Warmachine has stolen much of the 40k player base, Infinity co-exists next to the other game much more.

It has? You have some data to reference there?

That's not a good argument you know it can be countered simply by asking you to provide said data.

That been said the general perception is WMH was eating WHF sales and not 40k's at least not to a significant degree, one can of course assume it did, but assumptions are dangerous beasts, since we know the overall gaming scene is increasing the competitors may see growth while GW sees decline independently and that if it is true would be troubling for GW because one could again assume that the customers they bleed get out of the system for good, while the others draw from new sources which they failed to tap, again this just a possible scenario based on assumptions not actual data we do not have.

The only numbers that we have say that in north america, the miniature wargame segment was flat, and so was GW, in the same period (40k also accounted for a massive portion of this). The industry, in the sense of everything hobby and gaming shops sell is growing, but in segments that GW has no interest in competing, in large art CCGs. But it's very little data and I totally agree with you that it's easy to jump to poor conclusions based on assumptions that may be incorrect.

Kojiro wrote:I think it's important to note that 40k is a very specific incarnation of 40k at the moment. And I don't think that version can exist forever. It's been steadily becoming Epic for years and now it might as well be. Epic started off as hype around Ttans, specifically set to the backdrop of the Horus Heresy then shifted focus to the brother on brother combat.

Why GW hasn't released an updated Adeptus Titanicus, with all the HH hype, is beyond me. So few sprues required.

Really easy: people are spending unreal amounts of money on $80-$1,000+ models of titans and gigantic vehicles they can use on the battlefield in games with 28mm infantry. As long as that holds true, you'll keep seeing titans in an infantry scale game.

 Talys wrote:

Really easy: people are spending unreal amounts of money on $80-$1,000+ models of titans and gigantic vehicles they can use on the battlefield in games with 28mm infantry. As long as that holds true, you'll keep seeing titans in an infantry scale game.

Well that explains why they're selling 40k versions, but it doesn't explain why they refuse to sell me and my playgroup an updated Adeptus Titanicus. We're not, in lieu of what we want, simply buying other GW stuff.


The point I was trying to make (though I was at work and had limited time) was that I think the next game will be in the 40k setting, if not the 40k we now have.

I recall it was showing expansion not been flat, if it was flat since most of the prominent companies showed growth and GW showed decline then simply people jump ship.

@Kojiro
I gave you the explanation, they have a set amount they want a player to spend for an army, Epic or any other ex specialist game, does not reach this hence they are not worth supporting in their eyes.

 PsychoticStorm wrote:
Yes, and up to a point it allowed them to also eliminate upcoming competition from the UK too, but I feel the significance their retail chain after their dominance is overrated and might be part of their problems after 200X, reality is their retail chain is causing them too many issues and is not responsible for the vast majority of their income.

Yes, I agree with the second part of what you say. GW are not leveraging their retail chain properly. I have said this for years. They need to go back to selling a range of games. That is what powered them up in the early days.

Warmachine, Infinity, Dystopian Wars are niche markets.
And these are the "big" ones.
From what i personally see and hear Warmachine is declining, Infinity stays about the same, Dystopian Wars started very well, then just as sudden declined and now stays about the same.

FoW does rather well, 40k has declined, but is by far the most played game.

And Betrayal at Calth will give GW a boost and, just because of the models, will also give 40k a boost.