For me, it should be something like 30% what you take and 70% how you use it.
And that 70% has to be delivered by the scenarios on offer.
If every game just boils down to a shooting contest, then naturally some armies and lists from said armies have an unfair advantage.
But, if there's a good chance the scenario eventually played rewards mobility (such as seizing and holding objectives, scoring points for each turn), then that imbalance is somewhat mitigated - your troops might well still be blasted off the board, but if you've been clever with your objective seizing, you'll still win, or at least be in with a chance.
Right now, that's 40k's weakness. Stuff like First Blood and Slay The Warlord mean there's easy VPs for certain armies - either those with ridiculous firepower in every squad, or highly manouverable armies such as Eldar who can rapidly isolate units and characters to give them a good shoeing.
For how it can be done much better (but of course, still not perfect) look to AoS. You can take an absolute kicking in that game and kill little in return, but still emerge victorious.
With a good variety of scenarios, each with different victory conditions, the pre-game list building becomes far more of a challenge.
Apocalypse is better for this too. If you take a beardy number of say, Imperial Knights, you risk giving away far more Strategic VP's from their destruction than they'll ever gain for you. All you do there is concentrate your points into a handful of units, and give your opponent new strategies to tip the balance. Again, still not perfect, but a pleasing way to play the game (and I really like Maelstrom objectives. I know others differ!)
Would also help if the less sporting players remembered you right your list before determining the scenario/mission, not after.
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