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Has anyone actually done any actual data tests for overwatch? Let me try one to see if I'm accurate.

Full Tactical Squad (10 models):8 Bolters, 1 melta, 1 lascannon vs Wychs 10 strong

At a 16.67 chance to hit, about 3-5 models will hit, with a 66% to 83.33% chance of wound with bolters, lascannon, and melta vs T3.

16 rapid fire bolter shots: about 2-3 hits at 2.667, causing 1.778, which if there was FNP, are saved at a .593 rate.

1 lascannon shot, a 0.167 chance of hitting

Melta same chance.

End result: 1-2 models killed

Is this about right? Or is my math wrong, we need some actual statistics for once if we're to gauge how well a BS1 firing squad will do with various units.

Wait until you see people using that psychic power that lets overwatch fire at full ballistic skill.

Nitros14 wrote:Wait until you see people using that psychic power that lets overwatch fire at full ballistic skill.

We are doing an independent value on overwatch, if we begin to add outliers that would mean we would have to begin to calculate the percentage to get the power with certain units, how often that can be used properly, it's chance of working, and the chance of it being within range at the time.

In that case we might as well begin to add "Support" to our charging assault units to see how well they can snipe/support their charging units, which most people apparently don't do.

Probably.

If you add two flamers to the squad above you get average 4 hits causing 2.64 wounds with feel no pain 1.74 extra dead Wyches, more than the rest of the squad together. Heavy Flamers (Sisters of Battle?) you're looking at 3.36 wounds and 2.24 after feel no pain.

I think the real winners are Flamers of Tzeentch.

Terminators charge 9 Flamers.

18 hits. 9 wounds. 6 dead Terminators. Or 9 dead marines if marines had charged them.

Nitros14 wrote:Probably.

If you add two flamers to the squad above you get average 4 hits causing 2.64 wounds with feel no pain 1.74 extra dead Wyches, more than the rest of the squad together. Heavy Flamers (Sisters of Battle?) you're looking at 3.36 wounds and 2.24 after feel no pain.

I think the real winners are Flamers of Tzeentch.

Terminators charge 9 Flamers.

18 hits. 9 wounds. 6 dead Terminators.

Tac squads cannot take two flamers, no space marine squad can (Sternguard can however)

However, I will not deny that flamethrowers are potentially one of the best overwatch deterrents, and that the flamer of tzeentch is one of the most potentially dangerous of the flamer groups, however most of the examples that people have been throwing around is to the basic weapons of most squads, not flamer equipped deterrants (Which I'm glad, flamers havn't been all that great recently)

Well maths aside there is also the risk that the wyches won't even make it into combat leaving them exposed to full BS shooting in the next turn anyway.

EDIT: I think he meant chaos marines, they can have 2 flamers...

ZebioLizard2 wrote:
Tac squads cannot take two flamers, no space marine squad can (Sternguard can however)

However, I will not deny that flamethrowers are potentially one of the best overwatch deterrents, and that the flamer of tzeentch is one of the most potentially dangerous of the flamer groups, however most of the examples that people have been throwing around is to the basic weapons of most squads, not flamer equipped deterrants (Which I'm glad, flamers havn't been all that great recently)

Oh yeah Overwatch isn't really scary at all for the majority of weapons. You're looking at 1-2 models dead if that (unless the 6's really love you).

Main thing that bothers me is Slow and Purposeful models can't overwatch fire.

Also Chaos Space Marine squads can take two flamers, so my mistake.

From personal experience, I can say wyches now have real issues charging IG blog squads. The game I had yesterday killed a whole squad of them in one overwatch shooting with a 40 man blob squad.

Nitros14 wrote:

ZebioLizard2 wrote:
Tac squads cannot take two flamers, no space marine squad can (Sternguard can however)

However, I will not deny that flamethrowers are potentially one of the best overwatch deterrents, and that the flamer of tzeentch is one of the most potentially dangerous of the flamer groups, however most of the examples that people have been throwing around is to the basic weapons of most squads, not flamer equipped deterrants (Which I'm glad, flamers havn't been all that great recently)

Oh yeah Overwatch isn't really scary at all for the majority of weapons. You're looking at 1-2 models dead if that (unless the 6's really love you).

Main thing that bothers me is Slow and Purposeful models can't overwatch fire.

Also Chaos Space Marine squads can take two flamers, so my mistake.

It is disappointing that most SnP models cannot overwatch, but than most of them gained a massive buff just by being able to move properly, and their relentless helps them out, for example Thousand Sons gained quite a buff from the edition, Obliterators are about the same, but can move better to fire off it's multimelta.

Over watch by itself isn't a terrifying thing, the problem is assault units that get low in number before making it into an assault can be rendered useless by it. In your example imagine those wyches started on a raider but that was shot down and were afterwards on foot, lightly armoured assault units will suffer drastically from enemy shooting as it is, so i think this makes lightly armoured assault units far less effective in this edition.

Sorry for asking, but what does overwatch do?

fire at assaulters at BS1 basically

Ok, I'll do one for Orks:

Full Ork mob (30 boyz) of shoota boyz with 3 big shootas.

That's 54 shots from the shootas, 9 from the big shootas.

- 54 shots = 1/6 hit = 9 hits (18 at our normal BS2).

- 9 shots = 1/6 hit = 1.5 hits (3 at our normal BS2).

Now, we're going to assume we're shooting at a tactical squad of Space Marines (3+ saves).

- 9 hits at Strength 4 = 4.5 potential wounds = 1.5 wounds.

- 1.5 hits at Strength 5 = 1 wound.

That's 2.5 wounds per turn!

- That's 5 dead marines from 2 squads shooting which puts them in a real mess for being assaulted.

Now, let's assume we're shooting at a squad of Necron Warriors (4+ saves).

- 9 hits at Strength 4 = 4.5 potential wounds = 2.25 wounds.

- 1.5 hits at Strength 5 = 1 wound.

That's 3.25 wounds per turn, which is bad if you only took them in minimal squads.

Now, here's a full Ork mob (30 boyz) of slugga boyz.

That's 30 shots from the sluggas..

- 30shots = 1/6 hit = 5 hits (10 at our normal BS2).

Now, we're going to assume we're shooting at a tactical squad of Space Marines (3+ saves).

- 5 hits at Strength 4 = 2.5 potential wounds = 0.83 wounds.

Nope, it's not very good, but I just played a game today to which my slugga boyz shot down a squad of fire warriors (which made me laugh a LOT), but it was 5th ed.

Is 1 dead marine not good? Well, it's one less marine that could make a save/potentially kill a boy or two (if this is overwatch, then the marine would get an extra attack for charging).

Now, let's assume we're shooting at a squad of Necron Warriors (4+ saves).

- 5 hits at Strength 4 = 2.5 potential wounds = 1.25 wounds.

Again, that's a Necron that can't kill a boy or two in CC.

To Make a Looooooong math-related story short:

NEVER charge Da Boyz!

Actually thats less than 1 dead marine per turn for your shoota boyz... you forgot their saves...

EDIT: The point being made is that the BS decrease for overwatch effects Orks the least of all armies... just to save everyone time from reading all that math... my brain hurts just from looking at it...