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Deadnight wrote:
 Hulksmash wrote:

Take out pre-paint miniature games and GW probably does make up 60%+ of the market. Let's be real. How many miniature wargames are there right now? Well known and actually played ones that is? Warmachine/Hordes and Infinity with maybe Bolt Action and Flames of War in the distance. Maybe KoW and Warpath? I just don't see those games absorbing more than 40% of the market.
.


Spartan games too.

Historicals make up a far bigger section of war games, and war games players than you give credit for hulksmash.

Gw is an undeniable big fish in the sci/fi fantasy element of wargames, but bear in mind, this is only a small part if the greater hobby.



Perspective is an interesting thing. When you are in GW looking out (like probably 90% of Dakka...) - there is nothing other than GW. When you are outside GW - GW is a pretty small segment.

How many miniature games? Thousands. Played all the time. By lots of people. How many are well known? BS question. Undefined, and not worth of attempting to answer...because any attempt to answer will result in goal posts moving.

I would be a little surprised if GW were 20% of the overall sales (figure they are around 15%). I would be extremely surprised if they were more than 10% of the total gamers - with those who only play GW being down around probably as low as 5% now. Granted, they are a larger chunk of the fiction games. An even larger part of the science fiction games. And an even larger part of the mass combat science fiction games...
   
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Fireraven wrote:
Ok everyone brings up Magic. I used to play Magic very hardcore events every weekend not local but big 200+ player events. On average I bought 1-2 cases of magic every set. This was at that time around 450 each case. 900 per set at 3 block sets + per year. 2700 +per year in cards not including travel and event costs. Now if any one says they invest in cost alone 1k in there army in models and paint a year I would be shocked. The models last Year's , even the rules do. Even me buying every basic codex made and the data slates for a few armies I use/see regularly it is no where near that amount per year. In my mid late 20's I used to spend 9-12k per year in hobby related items, rc cars, planes, models, cards, and assorted board games. Now maybe 6-700 per year.


And this had what to do with the topic at hand? I mean, its great and all you have so much disposable income, but I'm not understanding what you're getting at besides some other hobbies being expensive.

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Fireraven wrote:
Ok everyone brings up Magic. I used to play Magic very hardcore events every weekend not local but big 200+ player events. On average I bought 1-2 cases of magic every set. This was at that time around 450 each case. 900 per set at 3 block sets + per year. 2700 +per year in cards not including travel and event costs. Now if any one says they invest in cost alone 1k in there army in models and paint a year I would be shocked. The models last Year's , even the rules do. Even me buying every basic codex made and the data slates for a few armies I use/see regularly it is no where near that amount per year. In my mid late 20's I used to spend 9-12k per year in hobby related items, rc cars, planes, models, cards, and assorted board games. Now maybe 6-700 per year. When I quit magic around 06 when my daughter was born I sold cases of cards I have won and never opened. Starcity games bought part of my collection and several unopened boxes of alliances from me and even then it was the highest value they had ever paid for 1 collection. I went to my local gaming store and opened my last sealed box of it and gave the owner and a few of the people I played with a unplayed force of will right out of the pack. All of them still have then to this day most are still unplayed.


And that is interesting...in so much as it shows how much someone who plays large tournaments spends but has little bearing on how much a casual gamer spends, and nothing about this thread...

Again, perspective. Casual gamers are who spend much more money - because there are many, many more of them. The ones who buy a single booster when they are getting a gallon of milk at Walmart... They play every other Thursday when their kids are at piano lessons...

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/10/20 21:32:07


 
   
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How much did wargaming Kickstarters generate the last year?

I remember it being a significant number anyways.

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 Kilkrazy wrote:
One question that hasn't been settled is how big GW is compared to the overall size of the market.

GW themselves once claimed to be 95% of the wargame market. I suspect they are probably more like 20% if you include games liked X-Wing and other such titles.

If 20% of the whole market disappeared overnight, it might not have any significant effect at all, as the people who didn't transfer to other games would be the kind of people who only played GW and were never going to move on.


I had never seen the 95% claim...I don't think they could have ever made that claim with a straight face...ever, never, not ever.

At their largest, they had a large chunk of science fiction - a very large chunk of fantasy (mostly because of LotR miniatures as opposed to WFB) and a respectable portion of historical rules (Warhammer Historical rules were probably some of the best written rules GW ever did). This was on the upswing of the LotR movies and when the internet was still new and shiny for a lot of companies...and a few other companies had done a good job of souring the online store waters (couldn't go a week without hearing of someone else New Wave ripped off). Many of the competitive companies had gone under for various reasons - and it left a void to be filled.

Even then, they had almost nothing in terms of dollars for historical miniatures, and I don't think they went over 50% for either fantasy or science fiction. Local store sales would have been higher - as even back in the day of the SASE, that demographic who wanted something different generally skipped over the hyped and heavily marketed (for miniatures) games that end up showing up on store shelves.
   
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Who is to say what GW claim with a straight face?

[Inserts Razorgor "Porsche" model.]

Certainly they have always been bigger in SF/Fantasy than in Historicals, and Historicals makes up a large market that many GW fans are not aware of.

Anyway, if you blow up a balloon and then let the air out, the balloon collapses. However if you blew up the balloon in a tub of cement, and let the air out when the cement had dried, the hollow would not collapse. What I mean to illustrate with this slightly bizarre parable is that just becasue GW were (arguably) responsible for the growth of the wargames market, it doesn't mean the wargames market would collapse without them.

I'm writing a load of fiction. My latest story starts here... This is the index of all the stories...

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 Sean_OBrien wrote:
 Kilkrazy wrote:
One question that hasn't been settled is how big GW is compared to the overall size of the market.

GW themselves once claimed to be 95% of the wargame market. I suspect they are probably more like 20% if you include games liked X-Wing and other such titles.

If 20% of the whole market disappeared overnight, it might not have any significant effect at all, as the people who didn't transfer to other games would be the kind of people who only played GW and were never going to move on.


I had never seen the 95% claim...I don't think they could have ever made that claim with a straight face...ever, never, not ever.

At their largest, they had a large chunk of science fiction - a very large chunk of fantasy (mostly because of LotR miniatures as opposed to WFB) and a respectable portion of historical rules (Warhammer Historical rules were probably some of the best written rules GW ever did). This was on the upswing of the LotR movies and when the internet was still new and shiny for a lot of companies...and a few other companies had done a good job of souring the online store waters (couldn't go a week without hearing of someone else New Wave ripped off). Many of the competitive companies had gone under for various reasons - and it left a void to be filled.

Even then, they had almost nothing in terms of dollars for historical miniatures, and I don't think they went over 50% for either fantasy or science fiction. Local store sales would have been higher - as even back in the day of the SASE, that demographic who wanted something different generally skipped over the hyped and heavily marketed (for miniatures) games that end up showing up on store shelves.


I don't doubt the size of the historicals market. I don't doubt it's buying power. However of the models that are played in FLGS stores historicals might as well not even exist. I think it's fair to assume when we're talking about the market it's the sci-fi/fantasy market. That's the market that the vast majority of our peers are in and that FLGS's carry. In all my years of various sci-fi/fantasy gaming I've only seen historicals played at conventions. Never seen a game played in a store or at a club. Never seen the product on the shelves. And never seen anyone under the age of 40 playing it. Not saying it isn't there, just that it's a completely different portion of the market.

To me it feels like there are 3 wargaming markets. Historical/Modern, Sci-fi/Fantasy, and Pre-Painted's. I never, ever, would have gotten into Historicals. Just wouldn't have happened. Not because I don't like historical periods but because they might as well not exist for younger gamers because they aren't there to be seen on most local levels. Pre-Painted's are huge. I remember how big MechWarrior was and several other clix games. And now games like X-Wing and Attack Wing are huge as well. Sci-fi/Fantasy is still heavily dominated by GW. Mass Battle systems are entirely GW at 28mm with GW being non-existant in any other scale now.

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 Blacksails wrote:
How much did wargaming Kickstarters generate the last year?

I remember it being a significant number anyways.


Tough number to get a specific answer on. Tabletop games were almost $60 million in 2013 and $18 million in 2012. A lot of those were "miniature" games in a round about way. Many are non-traditional board games with a significant component that is miniatures related.



I think I had seen a blog post sometime last February that had tallied up by hand the only miniatures/wargame related totals (no boardgame component to them) and they came up with something in the $25-30 million range...though I can't find it.
   
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So by that it a lot more competition for GW then ever before. So with that GW needs to step up and take control again.

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 Hulksmash wrote:
I think it's fair to assume when we're talking about the market it's the sci-fi/fantasy market.


I don't.

Warlord and Flames of War are both going after the same dollars as are spent on 40K. Many people who play 40K do so because they enjoy tanks - they can get their treadhead fix with 40K tanks or with WWII tanks.

Lot of the same people who wrote the rules for GW are now writing rules for historical games - and they took a lot of their following with them.

Ancient games have been a core to wargaming...since...well...always. Again, depending on what it is you want - you might want a mass of knights on horseback. You can get that fix in WFB or playing something like a DBM Renaissance game.

They are not often a core game held by game stores though. Then again - most games aren't (sci-fi or fantasy included). Your average game store will carry less than a half dozen different games. It is easier for them. Most people don't play in stores. It is harder for them. If you can't buy your toys in a store (because the store doesn't carry them) and you don't play in the store (because the store doesn't have a beer tap) - your store gamer will not even realize those people exist. However, they come out from time to time for conventions (though most don't - as they don't have a beer tap either).

And yet - just like air...just because I can't see it, doesn't mean it isn't there. I can see the impact of it (again - just like air when the wind blows). Companies like the Perry Brothers, WGF, Fire Forge, Warlord (ancients side of the house), Gripping Beast and others (just in the odd 28mm size) have found the market large enough to justify paying for plastic molds to be made. That is one heck of a wind right there - without actually getting deep into the weeds.
   
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Beasts of War did a long discussion a couple of months ago in their weekender.

They went through all the stats for the USA based on the Spring 2014 ICV2 Results.

$450 million on CCGs
$125 million in minis
$75 million on boardgames
$35 million on card & dice games
$15 million on rpgs

------------------

They also discussed it in a weekender, which I can't find at all... Basically, they estimated that GW is about 50% of the minis market. With, I think about 80% of that 50% being Space Marines.

This was the same report that had:

1) 40k
2) X-Wing
3) Attack Wing
4) War Machine
5) Hordes

With Fantasy not in the top 5 anymore.
   
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 Compel wrote:
Beasts of War did a long discussion a couple of months ago in their weekender.

They went through all the stats for the USA based on the Spring 2014 ICV2 Results.

$450 million on CCGs
$125 million in minis
$75 million on boardgames
$35 million on card & dice games
$15 million on rpgs


In stores...

Though not exactly. GW sold $60 million in the US last year. That includes GW stores, independent stores and online. Somewhere approaching 50% of their sales were direct (either GW stores or online). That leaves about $30 million going through an FLGS. Mark that up 40% for the margin that the stores charge and you get $42 million - roughly 33% of the US wargame market sold through independent game stores in the US.

Outside of the stores, direct sales, conventions, non-traditional game sources (1/72 scale models from hobby stores...) and the like account for a very large portion. Also - Crowdfunding (Kickstarter and sites like Indie Go Go were not included in the ICv2 survey). Also not included were many online sources (ICv2 deals primarily with B&M sales...though they do pick up some of those numbers with distribution surveys). Those account for another $100+ million a year in the US. Drops GW down below the 20% mark.
   
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 Hulksmash wrote:
I don't doubt the size of the historicals market. I don't doubt it's buying power. However of the models that are played in FLGS stores historicals might as well not even exist.


This is completely anecdotal depending on the stores you visit.

Personally, at my FLGS, 40k is played as a pick up game as often as Warmachine and Infinity. That is to say, almost never. Historicals are thriving, to the point that the store made a themed 12ftx4ft table for them to re-enact an enormous battle at 15mm scale.

Regarding 40k themselves, another local store held a mini-con about three weeks ago. They had demo tables on the first day for almost every mainstream game you could think of, including 40k (with amazingly painted Blood Angel and Daemon armies) and Space Hulk (I have no idea why, as you can't buy it anymore). The people demoing those ended up walking off and doing other demos themselves because no-one wanted a demo of 40k or Space Hulk. There was even a table demoing Bolt Action that was packed. I waited all day for a demo and never got one.

This same store is also the biggest retailer in the country when their online sales are included, and they stated (in an ACCC submission where GW was trying to strangle online sales here like they did in the US) that their GW sales have shrunk to 10-15% of their sales. Dystopian Wars v2 outsold 7th edition 40k 7-1. I don't doubt GW is dangerously losing ground in some countries, because I live in one of them.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/10/21 00:15:37


 
   
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 Hulksmash wrote:
 Sean_OBrien wrote:
 Kilkrazy wrote:
One question that hasn't been settled is how big GW is compared to the overall size of the market.

GW themselves once claimed to be 95% of the wargame market. I suspect they are probably more like 20% if you include games liked X-Wing and other such titles.

If 20% of the whole market disappeared overnight, it might not have any significant effect at all, as the people who didn't transfer to other games would be the kind of people who only played GW and were never going to move on.


I had never seen the 95% claim...I don't think they could have ever made that claim with a straight face...ever, never, not ever.

At their largest, they had a large chunk of science fiction - a very large chunk of fantasy (mostly because of LotR miniatures as opposed to WFB) and a respectable portion of historical rules (Warhammer Historical rules were probably some of the best written rules GW ever did). This was on the upswing of the LotR movies and when the internet was still new and shiny for a lot of companies...and a few other companies had done a good job of souring the online store waters (couldn't go a week without hearing of someone else New Wave ripped off). Many of the competitive companies had gone under for various reasons - and it left a void to be filled.

Even then, they had almost nothing in terms of dollars for historical miniatures, and I don't think they went over 50% for either fantasy or science fiction. Local store sales would have been higher - as even back in the day of the SASE, that demographic who wanted something different generally skipped over the hyped and heavily marketed (for miniatures) games that end up showing up on store shelves.


I don't doubt the size of the historicals market. I don't doubt it's buying power. However of the models that are played in FLGS stores historicals might as well not even exist. I think it's fair to assume when we're talking about the market it's the sci-fi/fantasy market. That's the market that the vast majority of our peers are in and that FLGS's carry. In all my years of various sci-fi/fantasy gaming I've only seen historicals played at conventions. Never seen a game played in a store or at a club. Never seen the product on the shelves. And never seen anyone under the age of 40 playing it. Not saying it isn't there, just that it's a completely different portion of the market.

To me it feels like there are 3 wargaming markets. Historical/Modern, Sci-fi/Fantasy, and Pre-Painted's. I never, ever, would have gotten into Historicals. Just wouldn't have happened. Not because I don't like historical periods but because they might as well not exist for younger gamers because they aren't there to be seen on most local levels. Pre-Painted's are huge. I remember how big MechWarrior was and several other clix games. And now games like X-Wing and Attack Wing are huge as well. Sci-fi/Fantasy is still heavily dominated by GW. Mass Battle systems are entirely GW at 28mm with GW being non-existant in any other scale now.


I just wanted to quote the last part due to the reason GW dominates the mass battle 28mm game systems is due to a few factors, first of all being most other companies realize very early on that the cost to set up such a scale requires a huge investment and is usually better to start out smaller first and then grow as a company, however this also gets into my 2nd main reason. 28mm as said many times on this forum before does not work at large scale battle style games. It simply is a bad scale to do it in and cannot be done without a massive store filling table. Even then units are crammed together and mobility is non existent. 28mm is meant more for skirmish games to RPG's doing massive scale battles is really only done by GW and a few others to lesser extent. Game scale should be done to miniature scale and 28mm is a skirmish and RPG style scale and up to a single platoon of men at most. In comparison 40k epic was a great game that worked very well for its scale, and is a much better game than GW's current 40k is and very possibly ever will be due to this key feature alone.

Now if GW does go out of the market place, I can say with a high confidence that wargaming for the long run will be better off, as wargaming will have the chance to become a healthy and diverse market place and will then catch up in popularity to board games and card games. I would like to argue that GW and their games has not in fact been helping grow wargaming but quite the opposite been holding it back and over the last decade been discouraging growth in wargaming by many factors ( including doing everything they can to isolate hobbyists to their game and theirs alone and attacking any FLGS and other companies ( several sculptors too have been attacked by empty threats)). Also just as a market we have seen so many go out and produce GW look alike products instead of trying to create something of their own due to the dominance of GW and catering to that crowd being the only way for them to survive.

I personally look forward to the day wargaming can rid itself of being dominated by one company , one style of setting , scale and theme and open up to such diversity that ones imagination is the only true limit. This will create the competitive market that will cater to gamers so many different tastes , ideas , scales and more that is what will happen in the long run when GW goes, though I do fear if someone else picks up the 40k license and comes back, yes they may be great and do well and good for them, however wargaming will again be stuck in the grim dark future instead of having many different futures and settings.

This is not an attack to those who love to play 40k as more just an encouraging though about what the future could hold for all wargamers if the market gains a more even playing field.

with best regards - Shawn.

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I have only skimmed the thread, but I'd say if you're invested in the hobby for a supported game, you'd best be considering another front unless we see a real drastic change. The current method is not working.

When you have one of the most prominent distributors of miniatures and nerdy goods in the US dropping GW entirely, after two bad financial statements, after a measurable worse rules set that costs more than any previously, etc. etc., how much more "Here's Your Sign!" type data points do you need?

I'm sure 40k will have legs if/when GW implodes. The real question is who buys the IP and runs with it. If that doesn't happen, then you'll have the die hard crowd dwindle as there will be marginal to zero player growth (who wants to start a dead game?).

I think the market is already shifting away with a multitude of options of various costs so that you could afford to have an Infinity faction, a Malifaux crew or two, and a Bolt Action army in the same space as a previous 40k army. So you play three games instead of one.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/10/21 01:45:07


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 TheKbob wrote:
I have only skimmed the thread, but I'd say if you're invested in the hobby for a supported game, you'd best be considering another front unless we see a real drastic change. The current method is not working.


I wouldn't say that...not in all cases at least.

Most games live on long after there publisher stops supporting them. My favorite fantasy rule set is still 2nd Ed. Battlesystem, by TSR. Still get a game a month or so of that in. Play a bit of Striker II as well (based on Command Decision ruleset...).

If for some reason, you really like the rules - or the miniatures - or both, there really isn't any reason not to continue playing. Granted, most game stores will drop it from their nightly line up in a heart beat after they can no longer get reliable restocks...so you will need to play at home or else where. They upside is that in the year or 5 following the fall - the miniatures will sell for dirt cheap as people off load their obsolete armies.
   
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 Sean_OBrien wrote:
 TheKbob wrote:
I have only skimmed the thread, but I'd say if you're invested in the hobby for a supported game, you'd best be considering another front unless we see a real drastic change. The current method is not working.


I wouldn't say that...not in all cases at least.

Most games live on long after there publisher stops supporting them. My favorite fantasy rule set is still 2nd Ed. Battlesystem, by TSR. Still get a game a month or so of that in. Play a bit of Striker II as well (based on Command Decision ruleset...).

If for some reason, you really like the rules - or the miniatures - or both, there really isn't any reason not to continue playing. Granted, most game stores will drop it from their nightly line up in a heart beat after they can no longer get reliable restocks...so you will need to play at home or else where. They upside is that in the year or 5 following the fall - the miniatures will sell for dirt cheap as people off load their obsolete armies.


You're ability to go out and find/play in a community beyond one you're already established in for said game, more so with a very expansive and time consuming buy-in (versus, say an old RPG), is going to be greatly curtailed.

It will lose the new hotness, thus not be carried in any retail and the third party bits market will slowly die around it, too. I can see a lot of third party model makers crumbling without "The 28mm Sci-Fi" game to support, but that again depends on who'd buy the IP and if they'd continue the table top presence.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/10/21 02:19:54


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 Sean_OBrien wrote:

Most games live on long after there publisher stops supporting them. My favorite fantasy rule set is still 2nd Ed. Battlesystem, by TSR. Still get a game a month or so of that in. Play a bit of Striker II as well (based on Command Decision ruleset...).

If for some reason, you really like the rules - or the miniatures - or both, there really isn't any reason not to continue playing. Granted, most game stores will drop it from their nightly line up in a heart beat after they can no longer get reliable restocks...so you will need to play at home or else where. They upside is that in the year or 5 following the fall - the miniatures will sell for dirt cheap as people off load their obsolete armies.


I agree with your general principle, but in this particular case I'm not so sure. In my experience, OOP games tend to get continuing playtime because they're usually pretty good, or inoffensive at least; whereas current 40K is, well, pretty wretched. A (highly) subjective opinion, maybe, but I've seen too many GW fanboys state that they still play because they like the fluff, or sometimes the models, because the local GW store is a convenient place to get a guaranteed pick up game, or even that they've spent too much on 40K to stop spending on 40K. Very few seemed to keep playing because of the game itself.

If GW goes under, no more stores, no more 40K minis, those rationalisations will evaporate like an election manifesto in death valley. I'm sure some would keep playing 40K out of nostalgia, but I think it'd quickly turn to extremely slim pickings when that's all it's got going for it, compared to other OOP games. Without GW's constant dangling of new, overpriced shinies, the ruleset will be judged on it's own merits, and when that happens I'd guess the vast majority of the player base will dump ttgs altogether, or find something better. Moreso than with other 'dead' games.

Personally, I like what Underfire Shawn wrote up there. I don't know if that's how it will or might be, but I appreciate the sentiment. Roll on the GW diaspora. Let's show 'em what a decent wargame is like.

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According to the last US gaming survey, GW are the largest wargaming franchise, but it is totally eclipsed by MtG. Boardgames also outsell miniatures games as a sector too. From that I take that fantasy/sci-fi non-video-gaming would carry on just fine if GW went belly-up and disappeared overnight. Even if GW's fans stopped buying anything at all and disappeared with the company.

The one thing that GW does in the UK (although no longer outside the UK from my point of view) is attempt to actively recruit new players via its stores. If GW stores disappeared the UK high street would look very different for gamers. BUT, we have seen the slow, gradual death of high street stores as a means of selling and recruitment for a while now. I would say, purely anecdotally, in the UK many more gamers are recruited by friends who game with the new guys at home, or school, or particularly in the UK in clubs. GW isn't really a key element of that process to anyone other than their die-hard fans. And we all know that every year there are fewer and fewer of those around!

To get back to the OP, I would say that the premise is actually flawed. GW has been dying for some years now and we don't have to wait for some far off future to see what the death of GW would look like, as that time is already upon us. GW's volume of product sold has been in steady decline year on year for 10 years (as shown by simple analysis of their published accounts). While not dead, each year they are closer to that than the last. We are already seeing the impact of what it means for "GW to die". Think back on how the whole market has changed since 2004 - GW rapidly inflating prices while reducing and focusing its product range, other companies growing and finding alternative routes to markets, independent clubs springing up and growing steadily. It seems abundantly clear to me that GW is no longer really a cornerstone of the market. 10 years ago maybe, but now, if they went we'd see a blip, but no shakes. Probably not much worse than when Rackham went boom a few years ago. At least not from an "industry" perspective. Obviously for those addicted fans who love their stuff it would be terrible, but for the rest of us... . meh!

If I was to go out on a limb, I would predict that in the UK, Warlord would take over the slot and buy up what was left of GW on the back of its rapidly expanding Bolt Action franchise. In the US I predict Privateer Press would expand as it became the most popular manufacturer. Just finger in the air stuff, but if I were a betting man, those would be my lead contenders to take over.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/10/21 11:00:27


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Sneaky Kommando



Washington, DC

I don't know that these probable competitors could just walk in without any "teething issues".

I like Warmachine a lot, and I like the aesthetics and most of the sculpts, but I've had issues with almost every PP plastic kit I've purchased. I'm not convinced they could ramp up production without exacerbating their QA issues.

Historicals are, of course, a different matter entirely, as its not a proprietary IP, and there are lots and lots of manufacturers making models compatible with a wide variety of games. If, say, Bolt Action becomes the Next Big Thing, there's no shortage of 28 mm historical manufacturers.

Orks - "Da Rust Gitz" : 3000 pts
Empire - "Nordland Expeditionary Corps" : 3000 pts
Dwarfs - "Sons of Magni" 2000 points
Cygnar - "Black Swan" 100 pts
Trollbloods - "The Brotherhood"
Haqqislam- "Al-Istathaan": 300 points
Commonwealth - Desert Rats /2nd New Zealand 1000 points 
   
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[DCM]
Moustache-twirling Princeps





Gone-to-ground in the craters of Coventry

If GW went down, the rules for 40k will go too.
There'll be no reason to keep using the GW rules, and whoever buys the IP can release their own version.
Or go Pathfinder, with a parallel set of rules.

The games of 40k and WH would continue, as people know the names, but new rules would emerge after a while.

6000 pts - 4000 pts - Harlies: 1000 pts - 1000 ptsDS:70+S+G++MB+IPw40k86/f+D++A++/cWD64R+T(T)DM+
IG/AM force nearly-finished pieces: http://www.dakkadakka.com/gallery/images-38888-41159_Armies%20-%20Imperial%20Guard.html
"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing." - George Bernard Shaw (probably)
Clubs around Coventry, UK 
   
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Regular Dakkanaut




West Browmich/Walsall West Midlands

If GW went it would hurt for a while but then things would bounce back.

To be honest it might be at that point already. Of course here in the UK there would be many who would quit with the demise of GW, but there lies the inherent problem. The vast majority did start with GW but quite a few have moved on to other games mainly due to the pricing as well as the rules. However there are those who simply refuse to accept that there are other games out there.

That being said i'd argue for PP moving into the GW void as one of the "main" games that people would play. The community seems to be far better and there is none of the "bullshite" that goes with the GW hand luggage (and there is quite a lot...). I would be wary of the historicals taking over, as to many they are a big turn off, GW has been a success due to the setting lets not forget that. Historical games maybe interesting but i still feel there is far too much "obsessing" about accuracy etc with regard to WWII stuff. Even though i understand the viewpoint, its not conductive in my opinion to newcomers.

We can only wait and see really, as some wag once suggested GW's current situation is rather like the imperium in the fluff and that could take years or even a decade or more to play out.


A humble member of the Warlords Of Walsall.

Warmahordes:

Cryx- epic filth

Khador: HERE'S BUTCHER!!!

GW: IG: ABG, Dark Eldar , Tau Black Templars.
 
   
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Preceptor




Rochester, NY

I think people are somewhat underestimating the appeal that historicals might have if they were exposed to more younger players. Keep in mind that like 2/3rds of the console first person shooters are set in WW2 these days; it's a setting that's really become more and more mainstream in the past decade.

I personally never would've thought to look into a game like Bolt Action 5 years ago, but now I'm really intrigued.

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

- Hanlon's Razor
 
   
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Cosmic Joe





I'd totally go in for some late Roman/Byzantine era historicals, but then I'd probably be playing by myself.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/10/22 16:05:04




Also, check out my history blog: Minimum Wage Historian, a fun place to check out history that often falls between the couch cushions. 
   
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Brigadier General






Chicago

 slowthar wrote:
I think people are somewhat underestimating the appeal that historicals might have if they were exposed to more younger players. Keep in mind that like 2/3rds of the console first person shooters are set in WW2 these days; it's a setting that's really become more and more mainstream in the past decade.

I personally never would've thought to look into a game like Bolt Action 5 years ago, but now I'm really intrigued.


This is a very good point.
When I started in the 90's, historical gaming rarely showed up in most FLGS's. There weren't hardly any games that I can recall that were sold with the shiny rulesets and attractively packaged models that were common for Warhammer, Warzone, Void, etc.

Now days that's all changed. Bolt Action, Hail Caesar, and other historicals are producing rulebooks and model kits with production/presentation values that are every bit as good as the popular fantasy and sci-fi games and with rulesets that are very accessible.

It's never been easier to point a newbie to historical gaming and as you point out, there's alot of interest in historical settings in kinds of gaming.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 MWHistorian wrote:
I'd totally go in for some late Roman/Byzantine era historicals, but then I'd probably be playing by myself.

You would probably have to start by providing both sides, but that's the case for starting out most less-popular games. However, if you can do so, you might be surprised at the folks who would be willing to play with you.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/10/22 18:16:10


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My Project Log, mostly revolving around custom "Toybashed" terrain.
http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/651712.page

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Hacking Proxy Mk.1





Australia

So which games do people think would fill the void and become the 'big' games at this point?

Warmachine and Xwing are the obvious top contenders.
Infinity seems to be gaining a lot of ground, especially with their starter set being a 5,000 copy first run and preorders alone doubling that.
Spartan Games seem to be ready to play with the big boys these days.
Mantic are killing it with their Kickstaters and, by all accounts, things are only selling better once the campaign ends and the boxes hit shelves.
Bolt action seems to be getting pretty popluar too.

 Fafnir wrote:
Oh, I certainly vote with my dollar, but the problem is that that is not enough. The problem with the 'vote with your dollar' response is that it doesn't take into account why we're not buying the product. I want to enjoy 40k enough to buy back in. It was my introduction to traditional games, and there was a time when I enjoyed it very much. I want to buy 40k, but Gamesworkshop is doing their very best to push me away, and simply not buying their product won't tell them that.
 
   
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Posts with Authority






I do not believe that GW will be replaced by another 800 pound gorilla - instead we will likely see a couple of five hundred pound gorillas, some pretty beefy chimps, an orangutan or two, and more monkeys than will fit into a barrel.

And I am okay with that, as long as at least one game moves into the gateway position that GW seems to be abandoning.

The Auld Grump

Kilkrazy wrote:When I was a young boy all my wargames were narratively based because I played with my toy soldiers and vehicles without the use of any rules.

The reason I bought rules and became a real wargamer was because I wanted a properly thought out structure to govern the action instead of just making things up as I went along.
 
   
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Screaming Shining Spear





Central Coast, California USA

MiniatureMarket.com is going to stop carrying GW. Using them as a microcosm I don't think it will be the end of the world. Niche hobby sales will be gobbled up by the runners up. For everything that GW gave us in terms of the "standards" over the years, the consumers will see that this torch will be passed on.

THE FUN HAS BEEN DOUBLED!!! 
   
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Decrepit Dakkanaut





Biloxi, MS USA

 MWHistorian wrote:
I'd totally go in for some late Roman/Byzantine era historicals, but then I'd probably be playing by myself.


I'd play it, but then I'd play pretty much any period of Roman historicals since my 2nd year Latin class in high school was all about learning Roman military history, tactics, and translating things pertaining to such. Incidentally, that's also the year I had the best grade in Latin over 4 years.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/10/23 00:20:20


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