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This is a topic that I am sure if posted a lot, so forgive me if this sounds redundant, but where are we going next?

GW is falling slowly, but falling hard. Most of what I see among my local Warhammer 40k members is people trying to sell out of the hobby, get their money back and see where the hobby goes. Everything is up in the air. What I am asking is, what is going to happen? I know no one has a definitive answer, and it can only be speculation, but it seems like something that should be addressed. The cost is rising for the hobby, and from what I can tell, the player base is shrinking due to costs of competitive play. (Could be wrong on the second one.) The IP of "Warhammer" and it's variants are obviously not going to float into oblivion, and there are many companies that would try to snatch it. Would this change the entire game? Would our models be worth anything?

I am just very worried as I am somewhat concerned about playing. I have a few small forces, and there are times when I think to myself that I want to make a big, good army/list, but I just can't bring myself to put that much money into something I can't be sure will be worth anything a few months time. Many pro-painted models go for UNDER msrp on Ebay unless it is from a highly popular painter, and that is just crazy to me.

So, any thoughts?

I've bought one list over 20 years, so if they go under, I'm out like 200 bucks a year tops.

I wouldn't say that they are falling hard but they are suffering from shrinking revenue and are running out of things to cut to salvage their profit margins. They are still profitable but I suspect they will have more telling profit losses in the next 5 years unless they start attracting new blood. We shall see how AoS does but from what I've experiences it seems to have kind of fallen a bit flat after the initial hype (and infamy).

Company is not doomed by a long shot but their current course seems to be to continue to slowly shrink until they reach the critical point of either A They stop turning a profit and investors get frustrated enough to vote change leadership/direction or B They position themselves for a buyout. A bit of clever marketing, a better pricing model to get new players into the game, better community relations, and better rules would go a long way for GW.

Vankraken wrote:I wouldn't say that they are falling hard but they are suffering from shrinking revenue and are running out of things to cut to salvage their profit margins. They are still profitable but I suspect they will have more telling profit losses in the next 5 years unless they start attracting new blood. We shall see how AoS does but from what I've experiences it seems to have kind of fallen a bit flat after the initial hype (and infamy).

Company is not doomed by a long shot but their current course seems to be to continue to slowly shrink until they reach the critical point of either A They stop turning a profit and investors get frustrated enough to vote change leadership/direction or B They position themselves for a buyout. A bit of clever marketing, a better pricing model to get new players into the game, better community relations, and better rules would go a long way for GW.

The company's profits have been on a downward trend since 2013. They also refuse to do market research, and insist on believing that their customers care nothing for the wargame and only play it as an excuse to buy and paint models. Also, you have to take into account that a good chunk of what profits they do have is a result of them handing out the IP license to video game makers like it's candy.

They just had a leadership change, so I doubt that's going to happen again anytime soon. Attracting new players was what they tried to do with Age of Smegmar, which as you mentioned fell flat on its face. And while I agree that better community relations and a better ruleset would do a lot to make the company's products more palatable, I don't agree that they should make active efforts regarding new players specifically, this being as niche a hobby as it is. Better to devote those resources to salvaging the community already in place, and let them do the recruiting.

I know the global trend is down, but in my area we've had a really huge upsurge in new players. Our club has started an "escalation style" format as the norm, with new players mostly doing Kill Team and Combat Patrol, and vets more than willing to loan out 1000-1500 points to a newbie to try out units or builds. It's been a resounding success, and as a casual group club game with a large player base 40k is still pretty successful in my eyes.

the_scotsman wrote:
I know the global trend is down, but in my area we've had a really huge upsurge in new players. Our club has started an "escalation style" format as the norm, with new players mostly doing Kill Team and Combat Patrol, and vets more than willing to loan out 1000-1500 points to a newbie to try out units or builds. It's been a resounding success, and as a casual group club game with a large player base 40k is still pretty successful in my eyes.

Anecdotal evidence from local areas isn't a sound way to determine the greater trend. Almost everyone who frequents my FLGS plays WMH
I know of perhaps a half dozen who actively play 40k, including myself. And if I didn't have friends playing 40k, and I wasn't a sucker for the lore, I'd probably be playing WMH myself.

Hence " I know the global trend is down"

I was offering a solution that has worked well for one large sized gaming club in one area and started with a caveat that I know times are hard.

 asorel wrote:
The company's profits have been on a downward trend since 2013. They also refuse to do market research, and insist on believing that their customers care nothing for the wargame and only play it as an excuse to buy and paint models. Also, you have to take into account that a good chunk of what profits they do have is a result of them handing out the IP license to video game makers like it's candy.

Also, let's not forget that their profits are down despite massive cost-cutting and higher prices. I suspect that the drop will be a long more dramatic once they run out of things to cut.

Frankly, I think everyone at GW who knew what they were doing have left or been fired. It's now run exclusively by people who don't understand their own product.

Profits aren't down but sales are down badly. Profits have been maintained by a combination of cost cutting and rapid price increases. Both these strategies will not work forever. There is a limit to how much cost can be cut, and there also is a limit to customers' appetite for ever increasiong prices.

AoS may reverse this trend. It's difficult to see 40K doing so because it was the release of 6th edition that marked the start of the decline and probably was the trigger, since it is by far the biggest selling game GW produce.

7th edition only doubled down on the strategy of 6th edition, (whackier rules, with more models, and higher prices) and we have seen sales continue to fall.

Bu the company is still profitable for the moment. It could sustain reduction in sales for several years more before there was a loss.

I find it hard to say where things will go in the next three years. AoS may recruit a large enough audience to compensate for the loss of Fantasy and continued reduction in 40K sales. I think it is more likely that revenues will stabilise at a lower but still profitable level.

GW may be able to turn 40K around. My gut feeling is they are worried. The appearance of a selection of £25 paperback codexes is a admission that prices are too high. This isn't the whole problem, though, and it doesn't really answer the price issue when paperback codexes used to be £15 and you didn't have to buy formations and so on separately.

I don't GW can possibly make enough from licensing shovelware game apps to turn the tide.

There are other things they can do, such as stocking a wider range of games, being nicer to FLGSs, and the like.

I don't see AoS saving GW. As mentioned before, the extremely niche nature of the hobby means that trying to appeal to noobs at the expense of the core userbase is ultimately self-defeating.

 Kilkrazy wrote:

AoS may reverse this trend.

I'd be astonished if it did.

Firstly, Fantasy never came close to the popularity of 40k (in terms if overall investment, at least), and I can't see AoS improving on that.

Second, they were, at the very least, controversial - to the point where GW have driven away a good deal of existing fantasy players. Now, you could argue that new players will make up for this. My question would be why they'd start AoS in the first place. Whist free rules are nice, the model prices are still ludicrously high. Also, going back to those rules for a moment, it's not a good sign when rules are free and I still come away feeling ripped-off.

I just don't see what it has over, say, Warmachine - which is also a skirmish game, but one with rules that are leagues ahead. And, brace yourself, PP actually communicate with their customers - including releasing faqs in a timely manner(something GW seems to have given up on entirely).

Previously, you could have said:
- Character Customisation (but that's now gone)
- Lore (Possible, but probably less so after GW killed most of it)
- Ability to use larger armies (Again, possible, but the rules make such armies at best unwieldy, and at worst tedious time-sinks)

Obviously I could be wrong, but to me it just seems like GW have turned WH Fantasy into Warmahordes, but with rules that are orders of magnitude worse.

They've been stating for a while now that they're a miniatures company, where rules aren't a priority and aren't balanced. AoS being the culmination of these ideas.

This pushes part of the player (collector?!) base away, and GW aren't doing much if anything to replace them. They're cutting costs to try to generate more profit from each sale to make up for it - which can only work in the short term.

As a 40K player this approach has turned me off - the realisation that they're not interested in the rules (other than generating money from the occasional rehash). I suspect I'm not the only one whose enthusiasm for 40K has been dampened by the statements coming out of Nottingham and the AoS ruleset.

So, what would you guys do to save Warhammer(40k)?

GW do have some things going for them.

- Lot's of lore.
- The models are getting better and the new kits aren't too shabby.
- Still probably have the largest market share with 40k.

What's wrong?

- IMHO killing off the Old World like they did was a mistake.
- The prices are too damn high. And not only on the models.
- The rules suck. A lot.
- No communication with the customers.

I'd like to see them produce a good set of rules. Easy enough to understand for the casual gamer, but tight enough to allow tournament play.
Lower the cost of starting the hobby. Cheaper models and smaller starter armies.
Then go and sponsor some tournaments. With good coverage, get some hype going. Maybe look at how eSports is doing it and try to piggy back on their success? You could combine that with advancing the story line.

Right now competitive play is often seen as bad. But competitive play could probably really drive sales. Look at all the (virtual) crap eSports fans are buying. You just need rules that play fast enough and / or allow for enough tactical finesse to make for interesting to watch games.

Well, maybe tabletop is too much of a niche market to really make that work. But every nerd / gamer out there has already heard of warhammer and GW should be big enough to give it a try.

ghazkull wrote:
So, what would you guys do to save Warhammer(40k)?

GW do have some things going for them.

- Lot's of lore.
- The models are getting better and the new kits aren't too shabby.
- Still probably have the largest market share with 40k.

The thing is, I'm not sure about the first 2 - especially where AoS is concerned.

In particular, those new Sigmar-Marines look bloody awful.

They have some nice models, but nice models don't distinguish them anymore. A lot of other companies also make nice models (many nicer than the GW equivalents), to the point where it just comes down to personal preference.

Also, I haven't read any of the AoS lore, but I've heard a lot of complaints about the writing standard being a lot worse than WH Fantasy.

Rising model prices?

YOU ARE IN AN AGE WHERE EVERYONE CAN SELL ANYTHING ONLINE! Sure new sculpts are nice but 99% of my actual models are eBay.

 vipoid wrote:

ghazkull wrote:
So, what would you guys do to save Warhammer(40k)?

GW do have some things going for them.

- Lot's of lore.
- The models are getting better and the new kits aren't too shabby.
- Still probably have the largest market share with 40k.

The thing is, I'm not sure about the first 2 - especially where AoS is concerned.

In particular, those new Sigmar-Marines look bloody awful.

They have some nice models, but nice models don't distinguish them anymore. A lot of other companies also make nice models (many nicer than the GW equivalents), to the point where it just comes down to personal preference.

Also, I haven't read any of the AoS lore, but I've heard a lot of complaints about the writing standard being a lot worse than WH Fantasy.

Yes, you're right. IMHO AoS was really bad lore wise. I'm also not a fan of the Sigmarines. But there are people who like them, so maybe I just have a different taste.

I didn't read much of the new fantasy lore, so I don't know if it's still salvageable. But 40k lore is still there. Would be nice to advance that in a fun way.

 vipoid wrote:

ghazkull wrote:
So, what would you guys do to save Warhammer(40k)?

GW do have some things going for them.

- Lot's of lore.
- The models are getting better and the new kits aren't too shabby.
- Still probably have the largest market share with 40k.

The thing is, I'm not sure about the first 2 - especially where AoS is concerned.

In particular, those new Sigmar-Marines look bloody awful.

They have some nice models, but nice models don't distinguish them anymore. A lot of other companies also make nice models (many nicer than the GW equivalents), to the point where it just comes down to personal preference.

Also, I haven't read any of the AoS lore, but I've heard a lot of complaints about the writing standard being a lot worse than WH Fantasy.

I think a lot of the models are getting simpler now - less time spent on brand new designs, more time spent on releasing kits based on the CAD for existing models. Another cost cutting measure

Taken from share chat about GW
"The dividend's great but the management is poor; it looks and feels very much like a company being profitably run down (note: I'm still into these guys for around 15k at today's prices, lucky me). The creative direction lately has been atrocious, with a weak new product called 'Age of Sigmar' replacing a known and popular brand ('Warhammer Fantasy'); anecdotal reports from overseas stores in France, Sweden and Canada at least have been that the new product is not selling and competitors are very aggressive in the high-value US market. A report from their recent AGM also made troubling reading (http://www.iii.co.uk/news-opinion/richard-beddard/games-workshop-agm%3A-relentless-profit-machine) - the title is sadly not borne out by the content. One glimmer of light is a much better attitude to licensing for computer; they have gone from having virtually nothing in the market to a very large number of licensed games, one of which (Total War: Warhammer) was shrewdly made with a games company that has a very large existing customer base with a large and successful franchise. And yet I've never seen their reported licensing income as all that exciting; are they cutting bad deals or are IP licenses just really cheap? Also troubling is that the business line they retired is the same one as is used in their high profile licensed game; unless they have a plan for this, they just cut themselves off from merchandising, which doesn't seem ideal." So even stockholders have started noticing"

http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?page=1&ShareTicker=GAW
Share price is falling again.

My five part plan to save 40K.

1. Split the game into four parts:

(1) The core game, roughly equivalent to 4th/5th edition but simplified and cleaned up.
(2) The skirmish game, roughly equivalent to 2nd edition/Kill Team
(3) The mass battle edition, roughly equivalent to Apocalypse.
(4) Various optional rulebooks roughly equivalent to Cities of Death, Planet Strike, Flyers, etc. that can be used to expand one or other of the three core rule books. This would include Formations and the like.

2. Reorganise the codexes to contain only army lists and rules, parallel to the three core game rulebooks.

3. Split all rulebooks and codexes into three parts: rules, fluff and pics. Make them available separately.

4. Balance everything using a combination of mathematical modelling and in depth play testing by the community to criticise rules, army lists and points values.

5. Reduce the prices of the rulebooks and codexes to what they were in 2011.

All the above is directed at sorting out the core problems with the rules. In addition to this, GW should be more open with players, and restart outreach programmes like the AoS Schools League.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
My five part plan to save 40K.

3. Split all rulebooks and codexes into three parts: rules, fluff and pics. Make them available separately..

I could see this very easily devolving into having three different books that each cost as much as the original. And while you may have a point about the model photographs (I'm assuming you're not suggesting to remove every bit of artwork from codices), it seems odd not provide a description of the army with that army's rules.

Yes, easily. That is what happened with the 5th, 6th and 7th edition rulebooks.

GW went from one large rulebook priced £30 to a boxed set of three books priced £50 which you could not buy individually. At one point there was also a limited edition hardback rules only book costing £25. At the same time you could buy the starter set, containing the same rules in softback, plus a large amount of models, for £60.

What GW should do but haven't done, is to allow people to buy the three books of the boxed set separately for say £15 each, so I could buy the rules and ignore the fluff and pics books.

In terms of codexes, I have had enough codexes to realise that GW tend to cut and paste a lot of the fluff and pic content from one edition to the next. I have no interest in paying over the odds for a load of recycled material I already own. I think they should issue the codex as a two part set, the army list book and the army background books. These should be priced at £10 each, and if people wanted to buy both of them, they could.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
My five part plan to save 40K.

1. Split the game into four parts:

(1) The core game, roughly equivalent to 4th/5th edition but simplified and cleaned up.
(2) The skirmish game, roughly equivalent to 2nd edition/Kill Team
(3) The mass battle edition, roughly equivalent to Apocalypse.
(4) Various optional rulebooks roughly equivalent to Cities of Death, Planet Strike, Flyers, etc. that can be used to expand one or other of the three core rule books. This would include Formations and the like.

2. Reorganise the codexes to contain only army lists and rules, parallel to the three core game rulebooks.

3. Split all rulebooks and codexes into three parts: rules, fluff and pics. Make them available separately.

4. Balance everything using a combination of mathematical modelling and in depth play testing by the community to criticise rules, army lists and points values.

5. Reduce the prices of the rulebooks and codexes to what they were in 2011.

All the above is directed at sorting out the core problems with the rules. In addition to this, GW should be more open with players, and restart outreach programmes like the AoS Schools League.

Scratch all of this. It's too much of a bother for them.

There's just one thing needed to save both 40k AND possibly getting a decent retcon for Fantasy - You sell the IP to a company who knows what to do with it.

Games Workshop's current management is never ever going to change in time to prevent what has now gone past the Event Horizon (aka, the scrapping of its original brand for a new, arguably weaker one). No way in HELL. They just don't have the long term planning capabilities.

I think GW may be in more trouble than it seems. I mean, how can we know if their losses are caused by their actions or changes in playerbase they have no influence on?

I mean, don't think I'm defending GW; I agree on everything that is commonly thought as "bad" about GW, but I think times have changed and there are simply less people interested in modelling and miniature wargaming. With PC games on the rise, "E-Sports" being promoted and all that stuff, kids are simply not interested in oldschool hobbies. The modelling workroom I attended as a kid is closed since years; there were less and less kids interested every year and finally there was not money to keep it going. When I was a kid, almost everyone was into modelling. I was and am a huge aviation enthusiast and always had a lof of scale models. Today the only people I know that are interested in modelling hobbies are 30+.

Let's not lie to ourselves: kids and youngsters are who start with miniature wargaming. Some will get bored with it, forget about it or find another hobby. A handful will find a lot of fun in it and become a lifelong enthusiast. The thing is, nowadays less people decide to try it. My 13yrs old godson visited me recently with his family. He just gave the models an uninterested look and asked if I have any games on my computer.

Now, we all will say the huge prices is what keeps kids away, that GW lacks cheap sets for new players and so on. I gakking agree, but it's not the only factor. And think about it; my godson has a new IPhone, a tablet, a PC, a Playstation and a bunch of games for those. Don't tell me that stuff was cheap and that his parents couldn't afford to buy him some minis from time to time. I had none of these as a kid lol.

I don't want to sound like an old grumpy grandpa, but times did change and I think GW can't do much about losing the playerbase, unless modelling and miniature wargaming becomes trendy again on it's own. Prices are possible to overcome for anyone nowadays with the second-hand market on Ebay, people are simply too lazy and seek easy hobbies. PC games are perfect for them; they get immediate feedback on their progress in the game, don't have to go anywhere, it requires no effort. No assembling, painting, reading rules, mini deployment and so on.

As for the new miniature companies - let's not omit the fact these were crowdfunded by enthusiasts who were in the hobby for some time. The "default"
client was already willing to play the game, knew how to get to it and was ready to buy minis. They have their small, but dedicated playerbase. GW is a much, much bigger company that simply can't remain in it's current state without new casual players every year.

I currently have noone to play WH40k with, that's why I became more of a collectioner/modeller over the years. I miss joking with people and having all sort of talks during the games. I think I have a 90%+ lossrate and it never bothered me

cheers
Kahnawake

Kahnawake, I do not believe that is the reason.

Here on my side, most of the players I used to play with simply stopped being able to afford the game. It was that simple. The annual price increases, combined with the speeding up of releases just made it unsustainable. How GW actually thinks their market will thrive with these prices is simply insane.

I am at the moment slowly starting my 15 year old nephew into 40k (he really likes Tau). Slowly but steadily.
Already I saw the staggering costs that would made it impossible for him to start on his own, without me to partially fund his initiation.

Small rulebook? 40€ from Ebay - I remember I got my AoBR rulebook for 10. I pitched in about 60% of those 40€.
Codex Tau? We're waiting for the new one, and that'll be 40€ (again I will be pitching in with the shipping as I have delayed my DA codex purchase for us to have them both at the same time)
I won him a box of Pathfinders in a painting competition and bought him a Piranha as a thanks for all his help when I was moving my house.

And (of course) he really wants Broadsides and Crisis... and the Riptide...

What if it was him alone? At 20€/month?

I guess I may be a bit biased in my opinion, as I am not an active player - therefore I do not need the newest units, in competitive numbers, and can wait for really good prices here and there, don't need the newest rulebook. I just bought 22 FWs for the equivalent of 12€ on an auction.


Thanks for introducing your nephew to a great hobby! I started with Warhammer Fantasy, Lizardmen. I was into dinosaurs and lizards as kid. I had noone funding me yet I managed to collect quite a lot of minis by myself. My codex was not original though (shhhh). So I think it's doable!

cheers
Kahnawake

I started with High elves (one of the many reasons why I have such vitriol for GW at the moment) back in early 6th. Things were much, much cheaper, and they were still fun. I then started 40k a year later, and things were still the same. The hobby was flourishing, we had lots of new players coming for both games. Sure there were some outdated armybooks (DE was already outdated by then :p).

Now? WMH is taking over, and I barely see a GW game tournament over 6 players - the only attempt at an AoS event in Lisbon (that I have knowledge of) had ONE participant. There's gonna be a huge event this month but this event is run mostly on brand loyalty and on nostalgia (the reunion of ye old gamers, so to say)

When the new Interrogator Chaplain came out I was all giddy to grab it, and drove all they way to Lisbon just to get it... and then the 25€ cost for a single. generic. HQ sucker punched me. No. Just no. It was the first time an impulse purchase was completely robbed out of me.

And then I began understanding how the AUS and NZ crowd feels, and why some people are starting to turn to them chinamen.

 Lithlandis Stormcrow wrote:
I started with High elves (one of the many reasons why I have such vitriol for GW at the moment) back in early 6th. Things were much, much cheaper, and they were still fun. I then started 40k a year later, and things were still the same. The hobby was flourishing, we had lots of new players coming for both games. Sure there were some outdated armybooks (DE was already outdated by then :p).

Yeah, that's another thing - the minis were a little bit more affordable.

 Lithlandis Stormcrow wrote:

Now? WMH is taking over, and I barely see a GW game tournament over 6 players - the only attempt at an AoS event in Lisbon (that I have knowledge of) had ONE participant.

WOW that is just sad. I stopped following Warhammer Fantasy around 2005 and I was wondering how many people still play it.

 Lithlandis Stormcrow wrote:

When the new Interrogator Chaplain came out I was all giddy to grab it, and drove all they way to Lisbon just to get it... and then the 25€ cost for a single. generic. HQ sucker punched me. No. Just no. It was the first time an impulse purchase was completely robbed out of me.

Sigh, I know that feeling. Sniper Drone Team is my favourite-looking model in the Tau army and because they are so unpopular as a unit you can't get those second-hand easily, and if somehow they appear on the market they are always painted or damaged. A new set of 4 minis costs more than a new FW team...

Cheers
Kahnawake

Please understand I am not saying this for sympathy - I am just doing a fast report on how I see things here in Lisbon. It's just my view of things, of course, and there may be another store in another area of Lisbon running some kick ass 40k/FB/AoS tournaments, but the "big" Portuguese forum doesn't have much info on any tournament apart from the ones I mentioned.

However, the prices are here to stay and you can't run around them without going to China. And no amount of brand loyalty can take away food from my kid's mouth or toys from his hands.

You wanna be afraid? Age of Sigmar IS coming for 40k. I played it with a group of others and a GW rep a year and a half before AoS hit. Didn't know what I was playing at the time, but it was awful. I hate 7th (as a lover of 4th and 5th). This is much, much worse. Prepare for the end times. They're coming, and they will make 40k fanboys weep.

 timetowaste85 wrote:
They're coming, and they will make 40k fanboys weep.

No it won't. Because nothing will do that, short of GW coming round to their houses and setting every miniatures they own on fire. Even then, half of them would probably still praise GW for giving them the opportunity to reinvent their collections with more of GW's new models.