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Probably worth mentioning in this thread (already been discussed in the Gen Discussion one) that the share price went up by a princely 5% today, it's hardly sky rocketed.
GW is substantially owned by institutional investors and staff, not the sort to take flight easily, all of those were scared off by the unexpectedly poor interim report in January.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
Vermis wrote: I took my first proper look at the space marine 'resell market' on ebay this week and was amazed by the amount of stuff with 99p starting bids, but still not selling.
I wouldn't draw too many conclusions from ebay. Most of the stuff on ebay is garbage, and a lot of models don't sell (or don't sell for much) because nobody thinks it's worth the trouble to strip the paint, clean up the glue puddles, etc. Quality (especially NIB) stuff isn't going unsold at "almost free" prices.
There is no such thing as a hobby without politics. "Leave politics at the door" is itself a political statement, an endorsement of the status quo and an attempt to silence dissenting voices.
Yep, I find new is worth a fair premium over second hand as I'm mainly in it for the modeling. Well, purely in it for the modeling now that the game has become unplayable. Buying the new 40k bundles results in for example 10 SMTac marines for $US24 which is quite reasonable.
Chute82 wrote: I would not be surprised if the launched a new Space Marine codex within the year. Just to milk more money out of you.
Looks like they didn't milk people money from the SM release. Not many were buying it seems.
Agies Grimm:The "Learn to play, bro" mentality is mostly just a way for someone to try to shame you by implying that their metaphorical nerd-wiener is bigger than yours. Which, ironically, I think nerds do even more vehemently than jocks.
Everything is made up and the points don't matter. 40K or Who's Line is it Anyway?
Auticus wrote: Or in summation: its ok to exploit shoddy points because those are rules and gamers exist to find rules loopholes (they are still "legal"), but if the same force can be composed without structure, it emotionally feels "wrong".
Nah from what I've seen on Dakka and elsewhere there have been a lot of new SM armies and addition of centurions and other new stuff to existing SM armies so the release helped their numbers substantially imo. As a GW "hater" the SMs were the last release I took part in, with a substantial buy in:
SM 'dex (last decent 'dex imo, even IG whilst balanced was bland-as bro) 3x SMSF's 3x SMSF Ultras 1x SW Battleforce 2x Vanguards, 2x Sternguards, 2x Death companies 1x Sanguinary, 1x DA Vets
I'd like my arm and a leg back, but with onselling parts of it at GW AU retail prices it covered a fair part of the cost thankfully, and I had no SMs before it so the bundles workedreally well for me. My point being I guess that yes, SMs *did* sell well as expected of the flagship faction, meaning sales across the board must have been pretty damn terrible.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/07/31 00:28:16
2014/07/31 00:34:18
Subject: Re:Do you really think GW is "going under"?
Peregrine wrote: I wouldn't draw too many conclusions from ebay. Most of the stuff on ebay is garbage, and a lot of models don't sell (or don't sell for much) because nobody thinks it's worth the trouble to strip the paint, clean up the glue puddles, etc. Quality (especially NIB) stuff isn't going unsold at "almost free" prices.
Fair enough, I wasn't used to it. But I noticed the hike when I looked at the SoB section...
Azreal13 wrote: Probably worth mentioning in this thread (already been discussed in the Gen Discussion one) that the share price went up by a princely 5% today, it's hardly sky rocketed.
GW is substantially owned by institutional investors and staff, not the sort to take flight easily, all of those were scared off by the unexpectedly poor interim report in January.
Agreed about the not taking flight easily. Besides that, share price is meaningless if the volume is low; and the volume on each of the trades for that stock today were very very low. The trades today were:
So, when you look at the number of shares, you can tell that these aren't institutional investors. Now, they might have been employees.... The 6000 share trade did represent about $60k US.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/07/31 00:49:39
------------------
"Why me?" Gideon begged, falling to his knees.
"Why not?" - Asdrubael Vect
The share price adjusted for the drop in profits back in January. The second half year saw revenue rise by £3m, which the price has reacted to positively. That's what I would assume anyway, I'm no expert.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/07/31 01:04:51
Azreal13 wrote: So, how does 500 orders for Eldar stuff in the last 6 months translate into millions in dropped profits?
Why now, recasters have been around since Second Edition?
Well allow me to do some math for you. One of those was the Eldar Wraithknight. 115 dollar kit with 123 orders. 14k if all purchased from GW. 7k if all purchased through LGS's. This is one vender on this website. I know of 3. This only shows 6 months of orders. The Wraithknight is over a year old. So double it.
The Imperial Knight they had on sale 3 weeks after release. The top 3 vendors sold 203 of them. 25k if sold though GW, 12.5k if sold through LGS's. Once again 1 website. This website actually had the rip offs second to another site I knew of.
Now think about this 55 Reaver Titans. At 650 American. That's 37k. One vendor from one website out of three.
87 MKIII 30 man Tact squads at 256 American. 28k.
I'm at 100k on 4 items admittedly high end ones to shorten my example. This doesn't include the 50 other often purchased skus. SM squads, jetbikes squads, Riptides, Heldrakes, DKoK, HH stuff. It goes on and on.
This is 1 website. Between all 3 is it 10 million pounds. I doubt it but I bet I could add up 3 million without trying.
Recasters have never been as popular as they are now. End of story. Ask around if you do have friends that actively buy hobby stuff. Ask them where. Ask them if they know. You might be shocked.
All.im saying is Chinese recasters are making a serious dent. That's all I'm saying. The interest in the game is still there.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/07/31 02:53:09
Kings of War Herd
Master Crafted YouTube Channel, your home for all KOW content...deemed not suitable for children, nuns, women or people with even remotely decent morals...
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCpUodTbAv0XfqvwwG2cBHuA/feed
Recasters have never been as popular as they are now. End of story. Ask around if you do have friends that actively buy hobby stuff. Ask them where. Ask them if they know. You might be shocked.
Why might that be?
BlaxicanX wrote: A young business man named Tom Kirby, who was a pupil of mine until he turned greedy, helped the capitalists hunt down and destroy the wargamers. He betrayed and murdered Games Workshop.
Azreal13 wrote: So, how does 500 orders for Eldar stuff in the last 6 months translate into millions in dropped profits?
Why now, recasters have been around since Second Edition?
Well allow me to do some math for you. One of those was the first Eldar Wraithknight. 115 dollar kit with 123 orders. 14k if all purchased from GW. 7k if all purchased through LGS's. This is one vender on this website. I know of 3. This only shows 6 months of orders. The Wraithknight is over a year old. So double it.
The Imperial Knight they had on sale 3 weeks after release. The top 3 vendors sold 203 of them. 25k if sold though GW, 12.5k if sold through LGS's. Once again 1 website. This website actually had the rip offs second to another site I knew of.
Now think about this 55 Reaver Titans. At 650 American. That's 37k. One vendor from one website out of three.
87 MKIII 30 man Tact squads at 256 American. 28k.
I'm at 100k on 4 items admittedly high end ones to shorten my example. This doesn't include the 50 other often purchased skus. SM squads, jetbikes squads, Riptides, Heldrakes, DKoK, HH stuff. It goes on and on.
This is 1 website. Between all 3 is it 10 million pounds. I doubt it but I bet I could add up 3 million without trying.
Recasters have never been as popular as they are now. End of story. Ask around if you do have friends that actively buy hobby stuff. Ask them where. Ask them if they know. You might be shocked.
Recasters make a crap ton of money. The Reaver Titan you mentioned, is made by one guy. That one guy sells so many reaver titans to suppliers and its so easy to make (apparently). Most recasters just do it in their spare time then send them off to others to sell and seem to be swimming in cash. Within days one of the major recasters got their hands on the limited edition shield generator. Weeks later it was up for preorder and within a month or so its for sale. They are very on to it and quick to catch on. Once its set up, its a very easy side business I hear. They definitely rake in the cash big time.
Contrary to popular belief the big FW kits arent their best sellers either. Its the normal GW stuff that sells the most. However most people only admit to buying the expensive FW stuff recasted. So who knows how many SPace marines you see are recasts or not...
Recasters have never been as popular as they are now. End of story. Ask around if you do have friends that actively buy hobby stuff. Ask them where. Ask them if they know. You might be shocked.
Why might that be?
Why are they more popular? I eluded to that in a earlier post.any consumers don't see the value. So they look for cheaper options. Now that Chinese recasts are readily available and easy to find they are more popular. A year ago I didn't know anyone coping to buying them. Now I know several. I buy knock off fitness gear from this site. So I've seen the 40k portion of it grow at a amazing rate in the last year.
Kings of War Herd
Master Crafted YouTube Channel, your home for all KOW content...deemed not suitable for children, nuns, women or people with even remotely decent morals...
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCpUodTbAv0XfqvwwG2cBHuA/feed
Swastakowey wrote: Contrary to popular belief the big FW kits arent their best sellers either. Its the normal GW stuff that sells the most. However most people only admit to buying the expensive FW stuff recasted. So who knows how many SPace marines you see are recasts or not...
What do you base this off? You can get the great FW marines for not much more than the standard tac marines which both look better in general and have less casting problems due to being made of less parts, not to mention you can get tac marines for the same price as recast through bundles at US discounters. I don't know anyone that's bought recast basic GW troops but plenty that pick up FW marines, DKK, elysians and so on. Some buy Russes and Predators, but they're more likely to go for FW variants there too.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/07/31 02:59:39
Azreal13 wrote: So, how does 500 orders for Eldar stuff in the last 6 months translate into millions in dropped profits?
Why now, recasters have been around since Second Edition?
Well allow me to do some math for you. One of those was the first Eldar Wraithknight. 115 dollar kit with 123 orders. 14k if all purchased from GW. 7k if all purchased through LGS's. This is one vender on this website. I know of 3. This only shows 6 months of orders. The Wraithknight is over a year old. So double it.
The Imperial Knight they had on sale 3 weeks after release. The top 3 vendors sold 203 of them. 25k if sold though GW, 12.5k if sold through LGS's. Once again 1 website. This website actually had the rip offs second to another site I knew of.
Now think about this 55 Reaver Titans. At 650 American. That's 37k. One vendor from one website out of three.
87 MKIII 30 man Tact squads at 256 American. 28k.
I'm at 100k on 4 items admittedly high end ones to shorten my example. This doesn't include the 50 other often purchased skus. SM squads, jetbikes squads, Riptides, Heldrakes, DKoK, HH stuff. It goes on and on.
This is 1 website. Between all 3 is it 10 million pounds. I doubt it but I bet I could add up 3 million without trying.
Recasters have never been as popular as they are now. End of story. Ask around if you do have friends that actively buy hobby stuff. Ask them where. Ask them if they know. You might be shocked.
As I'm already aware of a number of people who have bought recast, and where they came from, as with many things, I doubt if I'd be shocked.
You're still utterly failing to make a compelling case that in the last year recasters have somehow experienced some huge upsurge in business from previous years to explain that they've had any greater impact than before.
Unless, as has already been hinted at, more people are choosing to buy from recasters because they are disillusioned with GW and weren't going to buy from them anyway? In which case the sale was lost, and it is probably better for GW that the money to China or Russia than to supporting the growth of competing products.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/07/31 02:59:39
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
Azreal13 wrote: Unless, as has already been hinted at, more people are choosing to buy from recasters because they are disillusioned with GW and weren't going to buy from them anyway? In which case the sale was lost, and it is probably better for GW that the money to China or Russia than to supporting the growth of competing products.
Yep, a large part of it is not wanting to reward GW with any money for their bad buiness practices. They'll pirate codices and buy recasts to stop supporting GW whilst still being able to either game or just collect 40k models though. FW primarchs for example are pretty damn sexy models and a lot would like to just collect them even if they don't play, and recasts make that a viable option. As I mentioned earlier, a lot of people I know have basically completely severed themselves from GW and don't even buy recasts anymore, that's how much GW has damaged their player relations, the fluff and the game which should be a huge concern for GW - as stated elsewhere, apathy about 40k from (ex-)players is the worst possible thing for GW.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/07/31 03:05:27
Swastakowey wrote: Contrary to popular belief the big FW kits arent their best sellers either. Its the normal GW stuff that sells the most. However most people only admit to buying the expensive FW stuff recasted. So who knows how many SPace marines you see are recasts or not...
What do you base this off? You can get the great FW marines for not much more than the standard tac marines which both look better in general and have less casting problems due to being made of less parts, not to mention you can get tac marines for the same price as recast through bundles at US discounters. I don't know anyone that's bought recast basic GW troops but plenty that pick up FW marines, DKK, elysians and so on. Some buy Russes and Predators, but they're more likely to go for FW variants there too.
I know a guy who both makes some recasts but sells a lot of them. I was actually asked once to go to china and help out with it. But I definitely wont be a part of something like that for obvious reasons.
So I have seen some pretty cool stuff and learnt a fair bit about that little bit of the world. Where I am FW is more popular as well, but GW standard products sell a lot more than FW stuff. So what they do is they have a lot of FW stuff sitting there and order them in bulk whenever its needed and the GW stuff just flows through as it sells enough to order it as its needed.
So if you order a GW bit you are likely to get it really quickly, if you order a FW bit and you are unlucky you may have to wait a few months at most while they quickly cast it up for you etc.
Thats what i have been told anyway
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/07/31 03:08:25
I'm pretty sure I know the guy you're referring to, and you know the source of player purchases I'm referring to. It could just be different locations being discusses and different priorities of the players there, or a knowledge gap for one or both of us. Regardless, I just thought I'd ask since it conflicted with what I saw, always happy to hear alternative experiences like that ; )
edit: if the relevance here seems off topic, I thought I'd clarify it's regarding the impact of recasts on GWs profitability which has a direct impact on whether or not they're "going under". But it's hard to get solid data on this so we just go off personal experiences and try to aggregate them to get a better idea.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/07/31 03:13:32
Azreal13 wrote: So, how does 500 orders for Eldar stuff in the last 6 months translate into millions in dropped profits?
Why now, recasters have been around since Second Edition?
Well allow me to do some math for you. One of those was the first Eldar Wraithknight. 115 dollar kit with 123 orders. 14k if all purchased from GW. 7k if all purchased through LGS's. This is one vender on this website. I know of 3. This only shows 6 months of orders. The Wraithknight is over a year old. So double it.
The Imperial Knight they had on sale 3 weeks after release. The top 3 vendors sold 203 of them. 25k if sold though GW, 12.5k if sold through LGS's. Once again 1 website. This website actually had the rip offs second to another site I knew of.
Now think about this 55 Reaver Titans. At 650 American. That's 37k. One vendor from one website out of three.
87 MKIII 30 man Tact squads at 256 American. 28k.
I'm at 100k on 4 items admittedly high end ones to shorten my example. This doesn't include the 50 other often purchased skus. SM squads, jetbikes squads, Riptides, Heldrakes, DKoK, HH stuff. It goes on and on.
This is 1 website. Between all 3 is it 10 million pounds. I doubt it but I bet I could add up 3 million without trying.
Recasters have never been as popular as they are now. End of story. Ask around if you do have friends that actively buy hobby stuff. Ask them where. Ask them if they know. You might be shocked.
As I'm already aware of a number of people who have bought recast, and where they came from, as with many things, I doubt if I'd be shocked.
You're still utterly failing to make a compelling case that in the last year recasters have somehow experienced some huge upsurge in business from previous years to explain that they've had any greater impact than before.
Unless, as has already been hinted at, more people are choosing to buy from recasters because they are disillusioned with GW and weren't going to buy from them anyway? In which case the sale was lost, and it is probably better for GW that the money to China or Russia than to supporting the growth of competing products.
1. Because believe it or not 6th was a popular edition. The game did well. Price obviously drove certain consumers away.
2. I watched it. I watched it grow into what it is now. There used to be 4 vendors for 40k stuff ln the 1 website. Now there are over 20. Its a thriving business.
I know you probably just want to doomsay and just wish death on the evil GW empire. I however look at root causes.
Value and price. Its either to expensive for some to justify financially or they don't see the value. That's all. You can't find someone that's been actually treated bad by GW ( employees excluded). You have a legit issue with a kit they replace it.
GW isn't coming to your house and raping your sister. However they don't encourage a sense of equality with the community though. As a fan boy I have to cop to that. We are customers and that is all. For some people they need a warm and fuzzy feeling for the value. For some its quantity. For some its quality. Everyone has their reason. 3 recasters I have followed have grown. I've watched it. I'm sure other have too.
Kings of War Herd
Master Crafted YouTube Channel, your home for all KOW content...deemed not suitable for children, nuns, women or people with even remotely decent morals...
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCpUodTbAv0XfqvwwG2cBHuA/feed
Yonan wrote: I'm pretty sure I know the guy you're referring to, and you know the source of player purchases I'm referring to. It could just be different locations being discusses and different priorities of the players there, or a knowledge gap for one or both of us. Regardless, I just thought I'd ask since it conflicted with what I saw, always happy to hear alternative experiences like that ; )
edit: if the relevance here seems off topic, I thought I'd clarify it's regarding the impact of recasts on GWs profitability which has a direct impact on whether or not they're "going under". But it's hard to get solid data on this so we just go off personal experiences and try to aggregate them to get a better idea.
I hope you dont know him haha. But yea as I siad, it was a shock to me because FW is popular in my area for recasts, not GW standard. I can look into it over the next few months and see, but I have been buying next to no GW models for a while so its all a bit meh for me now.
On that last bit, there is a lot of misinformation in terms of recasts. Even those selling it in reality know little of where some of it comes from and so on. Crazy place.
Azreal13 wrote: So, how does 500 orders for Eldar stuff in the last 6 months translate into millions in dropped profits?
Why now, recasters have been around since Second Edition?
Well allow me to do some math for you. One of those was the first Eldar Wraithknight. 115 dollar kit with 123 orders. 14k if all purchased from GW. 7k if all purchased through LGS's. This is one vender on this website. I know of 3. This only shows 6 months of orders. The Wraithknight is over a year old. So double it.
The Imperial Knight they had on sale 3 weeks after release. The top 3 vendors sold 203 of them. 25k if sold though GW, 12.5k if sold through LGS's. Once again 1 website. This website actually had the rip offs second to another site I knew of.
Now think about this 55 Reaver Titans. At 650 American. That's 37k. One vendor from one website out of three.
87 MKIII 30 man Tact squads at 256 American. 28k.
I'm at 100k on 4 items admittedly high end ones to shorten my example. This doesn't include the 50 other often purchased skus. SM squads, jetbikes squads, Riptides, Heldrakes, DKoK, HH stuff. It goes on and on.
This is 1 website. Between all 3 is it 10 million pounds. I doubt it but I bet I could add up 3 million without trying.
Recasters have never been as popular as they are now. End of story. Ask around if you do have friends that actively buy hobby stuff. Ask them where. Ask them if they know. You might be shocked.
As I'm already aware of a number of people who have bought recast, and where they came from, as with many things, I doubt if I'd be shocked.
You're still utterly failing to make a compelling case that in the last year recasters have somehow experienced some huge upsurge in business from previous years to explain that they've had any greater impact than before.
Unless, as has already been hinted at, more people are choosing to buy from recasters because they are disillusioned with GW and weren't going to buy from them anyway? In which case the sale was lost, and it is probably better for GW that the money to China or Russia than to supporting the growth of competing products.
1. Because believe it or not 6th was a popular edition. The game did well. Price obviously drove certain consumers away.
2. I watched it. I watched it grow into what it is now. There used to be 4 vendors for 40k stuff ln the 1 website. Now there are over 20. Its a thriving business.
I know you probably just want to doomsay and just wish death on the evil GW empire. I however look at root causes.
Value and price. Its either to expensive for some to justify financially or they don't see the value. That's all. You can't find someone that's been actually treated bad by GW ( employees excluded). You have a legit issue with a kit they replace it.
GW isn't coming to your house and raping your sister. However they don't encourage a sense of equality with the community though. As a fan boy I have to cop to that. We are customers and that is all. For some people they need a warm and fuzzy feeling for the value. For some its quantity. For some its quality. Everyone has their reason. 3 recasters I have followed have grown. I've watched it. I'm sure other have too.
1. Really? Then why was 7th released after only two years?
2. Anecdotal evidence counts for naught. I'm also aware of some vendors on a website that used to sell recasts that now sell legitimate, non-GW, product, or have ceased to add new products for some time, or have simply disappeared.
Kindly, if you're going to accuse me of "doomsaying" and other hyperbolic nonsense, at least do me the courtesy of actually becoming acquainted with my general arguments - I've been citing poor value as the key issue with GW's retail offering for literally fething years on here, so kindly don't quote it at me like it's a revolutionary concept you've just plucked from the aether. Neither is "copping they don't encourage a sense of equality? (wouldn't be my choice of word, but, meh) with the community." For the nature of the business that they are in, and the product they're selling, to not do so is utterly backwards, they don't have to mean it, just act like they do, because it makes sense for them to be perceived in a certain way.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/07/31 03:28:26
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
Of course, KK, in fact I send a weekly report. I'm quite the Dandy in GW legal circles.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/07/31 03:30:08
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
I've never quite understood people leaping to defense of GW's actions.
They got rid of bitz service (many moons ago) and all specialists games, shrunk focus to pumping up 40k almost solely, and have reduced the White Dwarf from a hobby magazine to a 4-times-a-month catalog. They've increased prices at a margin typically many order higher than inflation, first through yearly price rises which even they realized were largely unpopular and so they changed to raising prices during codex releases. They've cut down on edition lengths and applied on the minimal levels of chance to new materials. They've broken down kits into smaller units and disguise price rises there, whilst continually lowering the points of units in all books so that an army in 4th might only be worth ~70% of the points one in 7th is. They've gotten rid of any creative content- all original scenery has been replaced by Citadel-Brand items...you wouldn't even know the same company had an article about making a Space Marine landspeeder from a deodorant stick.
They sued a book maker because they thought they owned the words "Space Marine." Their court case shows they think they own basic concepts, ranging from general sci-fi themes to historical references.
They say they don't do market research, admitting it proudly. They actively ignore you, me, anyone who has interest in them. They say that their customer's favorite part of the GW Hobby is buying their models. They couldn't care less about any of their customer's opinions. People who back them up at every turn, I wouldn't be surprised if Tom Kirby patted them on the back and said "hey, you're a loyal guy? You wouldn't mind paying a little more to deal with these neckbeards not buying, amirite?"
And the list goes on...and it really shouldn't.
I think 40k is a great product but I've never understood why this requires equating GW to deserving special treatment.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/07/31 03:39:34
lobbywatson wrote: All.im saying is Chinese recasters are making a serious dent. That's all I'm saying. The interest in the game is still there.
I disagree. <LONG!>
1. People who buy recasts would not buy GW products if you took the recasts away, generally
People buying recasts are actively taking the risk of being scammed or given an inferior product, basically because they aren't willing to pay GW's exorbitant rates. I really think that if the recasts didn't exist, people would just slink away upset and not add to their armies. Of the people I've seen who buy recasts, it seems like very few of them are buying recasts instead of buying the GW equivalent. Instead, they made the decision to not buy the GW product first and either later find the recasts excitedly, use the recasts as a way to keep playing when they can't really afford the things they want, or have already dead-set themselves against buying from GW regardless of the availability of recasts.
2. Recasts are not as big a dent in the market as you think
Logic dictates this. Sure there's more or whatever, but it really doesn't seem like recasts are a big deal. I mean, if recasts were costing GW massive amount of money, they would actually spend effort to fight them (It's like, soooo easy to find them these days, even with no knowledge and a basic google search.) The fact that GW has made virtually no major effort against the recast websites really suggests that the legal fees would actually cost them more money than the recast websites are draining from them.
Also, it doesn't seem like recasts are hugely mainstream or standard. But this is my personal experience, take it or leave it.
3. Do you smell it? It's an excuse!
*sniff*
Seriously, "Chinese re-casters and their evil powers" must be one of the most desperate excuses to try to justify the hurt GW's suffering. Doesn't an angry fanbase, or over-pricing, or bad rules, or all the other stuffs just seem more likely than evil chinese recasters? Doesn't it seem like the perfect excuse too? You can pretend like recasting is much bigger than it is, that it's having some really awful effect, and blame the people buying recasts or whatever. I wonder if this'll become popular.
4. Yeah, I'm a negative Nancy.
HERE! People who feel obliged to respond to my posts glibly, here you go, I've recognized the argument some of you might be thinking of making...
"You so negative. I no like negatives. You be bad, big bad negative guy. We be positive here. Why you so negative?"
...so now, let's not go into this line of thinking. Please disagree with me with something else, if you will.
(No offense to you personally, Muscular-festive guy. This just seems to come up all the friggin' time, always by random people who have nothing else to say.)
</LONG>
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/07/31 05:52:33
lobbywatson wrote: 1. Because believe it or not 6th was a popular edition. The game did well. Price obviously drove certain consumers away.
This is demonstrably false.
6th was out for about two years. First year saw zero real growth in revenue, and the second year saw an 11 percent real decline in revenue (nominal numbers being 2.9% and -8.2%, respectively).
I know you probably just want to doomsay and just wish death on the evil GW empire. I however look at root causes.
I like how you begin with a straw man argument, and then follow it up with a misunderstanding of causation and correlation.
You say you look at root causes, but you have nothing backing up your assertion that piracy is a cause of GW's declining revenue.
3 recasters I have followed have grown. I've watched it. I'm sure other have too.
This is true. Well, maybe not about the three of them, but a particular one from Shanghai has doubled his staff in the last year (from 2 to 4 employees).
"The Emporer is a rouge trader."
- Charlie Chaplain.
2014/07/31 08:12:05
Subject: Re:Do you really think GW is "going under"?
Vermis wrote: I took my first proper look at the space marine 'resell market' on ebay this week and was amazed by the amount of stuff with 99p starting bids, but still not selling.
I wouldn't draw too many conclusions from ebay. Most of the stuff on ebay is garbage, and a lot of models don't sell (or don't sell for much) because nobody thinks it's worth the trouble to strip the paint, clean up the glue puddles, etc. Quality (especially NIB) stuff isn't going unsold at "almost free" prices.
Yeah, when I started the GW Hobby back in the day, my first thought was "man, this stuff is pretty expensive, I'm going to buy my stuff mostly second hand, it's much cheaper". And it was, and there were occasional good deals, but I found out that much of the stuff I bought was assembled, painted or based in a way which was very unsatisfactory for me and getting it the way I wanted was often extremely time-consuming. And despite me being chronically cash-strapped, what I was even more short of was time. So these days if I need something, I often just waltz into my FLGS and buy it, sure it costs more but convenience is more important for me nowadays.
Yeah, I've heard that rumor. For the last 10 years. Would be the third SoB codex in what... 4 years?
Didn't say that they will, I said that they can. After all, if everything else is already updated, why not? See Dark Eldar and Tau - previously neglected armies can be big sellers once their range is updated.
Fantasy is much smaller than 40k. Anyway, I don't think 9th ed is going anywhere. Because people are just pissed by the huge amount of minis, their cost and 90's rules.
We're not playing 8th ed WHFB, but 4.6.12-beta version. The only "major differences" between 4th ed and 8th ed are the random charges, magic with dices and army structure. In my book, changing 6s by dashes in a S/T chart is not a major change, and premesuring isn't either, these are merely house rules that could have been written by my 7 years old nephew. We're still playing a 4.x version, and the 4.0 was released more than 20 years ago.
But, a major overhaul of the WHFB system will probably alienate many older players.
GW could reduce the amount of minis to make WHFB less expensive for beginners, but it will alienate many older players who have large collections.
GW could reduce the prices of all WHFB minis, but it will alienate 40k players and generate less cash.
How can you make quick cash if you lower the minis counts and prices on all Fantasy ranges?
Don't need to do that. All you need to do is to have decent ruleset with some major gripes fixed, and larger infantry boxes which offer better discount per mini than current 5 to 10 miniature boxes. And glorious looking starter set like Isle of Blood.
Backfire wrote: -release a new Army. Kislev for WHFB, or Mechanicus for 40k or something like that.
Given the previous releases, I really, really doubt about that. Kislev or Mechanicus would need far more than 3 boxes.
Yes they would. However, now that Hobbit probably won't suck development anymore and most 40k ranges are quite complete, it is well within their capabilities, if they decide to do it. Personally I don't think they're going there just yet, but it is an option.
Backfire wrote: -Smaug. Few people care about the game, but a good looking Dragon is a sure-fire seller.
We're currently talking about a situation were "SM + IG + Tyranids + Eldars + new edition" just isn't enough.
Are people seriously expecting Mordians to do the trick?
Would you please get over the whole "omg new edition didn't do the trick" thing? The book was on sale for ONE week (two if counting preorders) during that financial year. They probably generated more revenue selling out Stormclaw, than those 2 weeks of main rulebook.
Once again, the point is not that GW will turn around big time (maybe they won't), but that the idea that they have nothing of note left to be released is silly.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/07/31 09:27:01
GW will not and cannot go after recasters based in China. Chinese law is basically setup to prevent anyone from going after their many copiers and cloners of other companies' products. One of my other hobbies is mechanical vaporizers. An authentic mod from an original manufacturer is usually $200-400. A week after a new one is released, the Chinese copy it with the cheapest material possible and awful machining and threads. They even use the exact same logo which is usually trademarked by the original manufacturer. They have been doing this for a couple years and nobody can go after them because they're in China. Go to fasttech.com if you don't know what I'm talking about. I feel bad for the authentic makers because it is cutting into their pockets and they're usually 1 man operations or at most 5-6 guys who put their time, money, blood, sweat and tears into bringing a beautiful, well machined product to market only to have the Chinese clone it a week later for 1/10th of the price. It's bull gak and I wish the cloners would be sued and shut down but it will never happen. The point of my long winded, mostly off topic post is that no matter how much money recasters take from GW, even their sue happy legal team is not going to be able to stop it.
Automatically Appended Next Post: I also collect Strider knives. The Chinese copy those too and Mick Strider can't do a thing about it. If you go on ebay and search Strider SMF, you can see the real deal for $300-500+ right next to the Chinese copies using the strider logo for $75. It's just sad.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/07/31 10:35:41
lobbywatson wrote: All.im saying is Chinese recasters are making a serious dent. That's all I'm saying. The interest in the game is still there.
I disagree. <LONG!>
1. People who buy recasts would not buy GW products if you took the recasts away, generally
That is not my experience. In the past year two of my friends who were previously happy to spend big bucks on GW products have switched to recasters, simply to save money.
