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How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/01/16 10:27:32


Post by: Shadowseer_Kim


I picked other. Because some armies are easier to play than others. So based on your army will determine how much skill you need to play that army to win.

There are various skill levels of players with the same army as well.

There is always an amount of luck in games that involve dice, cards etc.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/01/16 10:29:00


Post by: LunaHound


1/3 rd army list / deployment ( pre game set ups )
1/3 rd skill and tactic
1/3 rd luck

No amount of skills can save you if you always fail to wound and fail armor saves.



How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/01/16 12:30:32


Post by: SagesStone


A split. Depends on what you have, where you put it and a die roll.

It's based on luck, but you can improve or worsen the chance depending on what you take and what you try to do with it.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/01/16 12:58:23


Post by: L_Dawg


It's more based on making sound choices in my opinion. It takes a degree of knowing the stakes at hand and the possibilities and deciding on the best course of action. This comes from building the army list all the way down to playing it on the table.

The only exception is when you build an army and play it in a fluffy way. In which case, it's 100% fun and dramatics.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/01/16 14:45:36


Post by: Salted Diamond


I would say it's more skill, but luck and army do play a part. GK (the internet Draigo lists) for example, a smaller army means "some" skill is needed to know what is important, but less luck as they are (IMO) OP. Then something like Eldar or DA need more skill to overcome the effects time has had on their armies.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/01/16 18:57:29


Post by: Sonophos


I think that GW deliberately power up each new dex to encourage power players to buy a new army.

Things like GK terminators costing the same as SM terminators point for point doesn't look like an obvious one but ion game having them as troop choices is significant.

The Introduction of the stormraven and the valkyrie are two more obvious balance throws along with BAs getting Jump infantry in their troop choices for the same points as a FA from the SM dex.

GW just introduce a couple of game breakers in each dex so you are best off looking for these and including them in your army but beware they will cost you a small fortune to put into practice due to the less than hidden price policy of GW.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/01/16 19:01:22


Post by: DickBandit


LunaHound wrote:1/3 rd army list / deployment ( pre game set ups )
1/3 rd skill and tactic
1/3 rd luck

No amount of skills can save you if you always fail to wound and fail armor saves.


Pretty much. You can have a rock solid list and strategy, but the dice can mess up everything.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/01/16 20:12:14


Post by: jackyratos


Chance is exagerated. A Bloodthirster by example, should have more than 5/6 chances to kill a grot once hit. However, the grot should have more chances than 2/6 to hit the Daemon with its fireweapon.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/01/16 22:05:03


Post by: necrovamp


Chance, with a bit of army thrown in very little skill needed.

Got the army with the best combat units? roll the dice right and you win.

warhammer is too full of gimmicks to be skillfull, if you want a game of skill, play rapid fire....


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/01/17 05:02:15


Post by: Salted Diamond


Sonophos wrote:I think that GW deliberately power up each new dex to encourage power players to buy a new army.

Things like GK terminators costing the same as SM terminators point for point doesn't look like an obvious one but ion game having them as troop choices is significant.

The Introduction of the stormraven and the valkyrie are two more obvious balance throws along with BAs getting Jump infantry in their troop choices for the same points as a FA from the SM dex.

They have had Assault squads since they were PDF (been playing BA since they went PDF), and while they did cost more (250pts for 10), so did there Tactical and Dev squads (190pts for 10). They are using the same equipment as every other chapter, so why should it cost more. Their rhino vehicles are different, so they do cost more. Why should they regular stuff?


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/01/17 05:14:11


Post by: chaos0xomega


My opinion is its rought 40:40:20 chance:army:skill


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/01/17 11:49:29


Post by: Sonophos


Salted Diamond wrote:
Sonophos wrote:I think that GW deliberately power up each new dex to encourage power players to buy a new army.

Things like GK terminators costing the same as SM terminators point for point doesn't look like an obvious one but ion game having them as troop choices is significant.

The Introduction of the stormraven and the valkyrie are two more obvious balance throws along with BAs getting Jump infantry in their troop choices for the same points as a FA from the SM dex.

They have had Assault squads since they were PDF (been playing BA since they went PDF), and while they did cost more (250pts for 10), so did there Tactical and Dev squads (190pts for 10). They are using the same equipment as every other chapter, so why should it cost more. Their rhino vehicles are different, so they do cost more. Why should they regular stuff?


The fact that they can claim objectives should at least add 5-10 per squad when compared to a comparable squad that can not as this makes the difference between winning and loosing a game. It's not about equipment and combat abaility but game mechanics.

If an SM assault squad sits on an objective and a BA assault squad sits on another at the end of a game the BA player wins as they are troops; it doesn't matter what they are armed with. The units have the same cost so this is therefore either deliberate overpowering or sloppy design by GW.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/01/17 20:00:10


Post by: Salted Diamond


Sonophos wrote:
Salted Diamond wrote:
Sonophos wrote:I think that GW deliberately power up each new dex to encourage power players to buy a new army.

Things like GK terminators costing the same as SM terminators point for point doesn't look like an obvious one but ion game having them as troop choices is significant.

The Introduction of the stormraven and the valkyrie are two more obvious balance throws along with BAs getting Jump infantry in their troop choices for the same points as a FA from the SM dex.

They have had Assault squads since they were PDF (been playing BA since they went PDF), and while they did cost more (250pts for 10), so did there Tactical and Dev squads (190pts for 10). They are using the same equipment as every other chapter, so why should it cost more. Their rhino vehicles are different, so they do cost more. Why should they regular stuff?


The fact that they can claim objectives should at least add 5-10 per squad when compared to a comparable squad that can not as this makes the difference between winning and loosing a game. It's not about equipment and combat abaility but game mechanics.

If an SM assault squad sits on an objective and a BA assault squad sits on another at the end of a game the BA player wins as they are troops; it doesn't matter what they are armed with. The units have the same cost so this is therefore either deliberate overpowering or sloppy design by GW.


Then why did Dark Angels Assault and Terminator squads cost more than SM? They are 100% identical to codex but cost more (more than 4th and 5th). Deathwing can become troops, but only with Belial, who you have to pay for. So by you argument, these units should be better because they cost more? You also never hear people complain that DA tactical squads (of 10) are 5 points cheaper than regular SM.

(I think we should start a new thread about this to not get yelled at for hijacking this one)


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/01/17 20:34:19


Post by: Sonophos


Hmm... I agree. I was commenting on Blood Andels not Dark angels. My original point was that If you have an army that has the latest Dex you tend to have an advantage.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/01/18 12:19:03


Post by: MrMerlin


Skill for me.

A friend of mine ALWAYS has bad luck, and i ALWAYS have good luck playing against him. It always seems to be going great for me, yet i have NEVER won a game against him! He always manages to find a rule or trick to win in the last turn!!


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/01/18 13:46:16


Post by: infinite_array


chaos0xomega wrote:My opinion is its rought 40:40:20 chance:army:skill


Roughly agreed. I'll go with 50:30:20.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/01/18 14:10:56


Post by: rodgers37


I don't think army comes into it as much as luck and skill. I mean I know a player who can beat competitive armies with Nids and Tau pretty easily.
Skill does go along way, and you know 'You make your own luck'. Any army can beat any other army to be honest, obviously some are better at beating certain armies, but still if you have the right tactics and movements in a game (skill) then you can easily beat any army with yours.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/01/23 09:42:10


Post by: Thatguy91


Luck and army will definately have a huge role in the game but I believe skill is definitely the game winning skill. I would rate luck over army.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/01/23 21:44:21


Post by: Locclo


I feel that it's about 40:30:20 (Skill, Army, Chance). Mainly because much of the game tends to be skillfully tilting the odds in your favor - for example, 10 marines charging a Rhino may have a chance of killing it, but 2 marines firing meltaguns at it would have better odds of doing so. Similarly, I rarely see one squad charge an equally matched squad and hope that the dice roll in the first squad's favor - it's all about tilting the odds by softening it up first.

I mainly put skill first because Tau, Nids and Daemons are definitely not real strong armies on their own, but a player at my FLGS can flat-out table so-called "stronger" armies without breaking a sweat because of his great deal of experience and skill. Having a good army and having strong luck are important, but having a strong tactical mind and a lot of experience can dramatically alter the outcome of a game.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/05/08 19:21:23


Post by: Gutstuf Ugfang


depending on the army will improve your chances of winning, given that the player is knowledgeable and built a good list just as his opponent did.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/05/09 00:27:42


Post by: Dayvuni


I say it is skill because if the same two people play several times, usually the more skilled player will win.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/05/09 08:51:54


Post by: GoDz BuZzSaW


You can have the army and the skill, but if you can't roll the dice then you're


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/05/09 19:05:49


Post by: Dayvuni


Dice usually handle them selves, though given, some rolls are more important than others and if you know how to cheat and roll 4+ every time then it has become more than just a game.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/05/10 02:50:07


Post by: cmsheats


Split Evenly between Chance, Skill and Army

Would have to say that it involves everything.

Chris


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/05/10 05:40:29


Post by: Mattlov


Chance.

It is a dice game with more complex rules. If you have hot dice, any army can win, no matter what the enemy tactics. If you have cold dice every army can lose, no matter the other conditions.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/05/11 12:13:03


Post by: Palindrome


Dice bases wargames will always be dependant upon chance, there is simply no getting away from it. The skill element is based around determining the odds of a certain action being succesful and acting accordingly. The chance of winning in an ideal wargame should be something like 70% skill, 20% chance and 10% (or less) on list selection.

40K is far from an ideal game however and list selection is 50%, if not more, due to how unbalanced the game is.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/05/11 15:21:54


Post by: FTHDace


The chance part is iffy. It can be as little as 0% up to 100%. You can have games where rolls absolutely rule the game, but in other games you can roll 37 penetrating hits on 5 vehicles and get nothing but Shaken/Stunned results (happened to me last weekend).

Id say skill over army list as a skilled opponent can do well even with a less than great list, but a newbie might not be able to do well with a netlist (unless hes playing GK then they just have to point and click the army).


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/05/11 16:22:21


Post by: Gorillawizard


I chose other.... you roll dice, It's always down to luck!
you could roll 1's all game you could roll 6's all game, it's all down to the roll of a dice.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/05/13 15:27:41


Post by: marmaduke


Skill 55%
Chance 35%
Army 10%

I firmly believe that skill is by far the deciding factor. no matter what army you have a person that Knows the game and their army will almost always woop your no matter how well your list is tuned.
(unless you roll all 6's and they roll all 1's and i have yet to see that ever )


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/05/14 04:11:16


Post by: Jimsolo


I think it is mostly skill. In my experience skill can trump any amount of codex creep and any (practical) amount of luck.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/05/17 22:55:58


Post by: A Town Called Malus


Locclo wrote:I feel that it's about 40:30:20 (Skill, Army, Chance). Mainly because much of the game tends to be skillfully tilting the odds in your favor - for example, 10 marines charging a Rhino may have a chance of killing it, but 2 marines firing meltaguns at it would have better odds of doing so. Similarly, I rarely see one squad charge an equally matched squad and hope that the dice roll in the first squad's favor - it's all about tilting the odds by softening it up first.

I mainly put skill first because Tau, Nids and Daemons are definitely not real strong armies on their own, but a player at my FLGS can flat-out table so-called "stronger" armies without breaking a sweat because of his great deal of experience and skill. Having a good army and having strong luck are important, but having a strong tactical mind and a lot of experience can dramatically alter the outcome of a game.


You might want to double check you maths there buddy


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/05/19 11:46:44


Post by: InquisitorVaron


It's mainly tactics and your army list. But if luck's not on your side then it doesn't matter.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/05/20 12:11:31


Post by: kizzdougs


Skill.

Skill should never be underestimated. Often the difference in a game will be a single mistake and the skill of the opponent to take advantage of it.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/05/22 04:22:20


Post by: ICleadpeople


I started with Rogue Trader and GW games are the worst ROCK, PAPER, SCISSOR games I've ever seen. Codex creep killed this game for me.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/06/11 09:24:27


Post by: olim


4/9 army choice / list. 3/9 skill. 2/9 luck.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/06/11 09:56:37


Post by: mrwhoop


Yeah considering you need permission from the dice to do dang near everything it is a game of chance. Army list and skill obviously have their place in this to minimize loss or failure but this is not a balanced game pitting the skills of two generals. Go play chess or some other non-dice/card game for that satisfaction.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/06/11 10:01:03


Post by: olim


Whilst in a single game what you say is true, if you played a thousand games luck would play nearly no part in the end result bcause it luck will inevitably balance out eventually between games, it would then be down to skill and army.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/06/12 07:32:58


Post by: mrwhoop


if you played a thousand games luck would play nearly no part in the end result bcause it luck will inevitably balance out eventually between games


No, it wouldn't. Statistics say that the rolls will even out but not when. If you roll perfectly balanced dice so all six numbers will come up equally on average you still need certain numbers at certain times. Example, you need higher numbers to hit and lower numbers for leadership. You can roll the opposite of what you need and the dice would have still been 'balanced out'. As long as you need 'permission' from the dice to do something good player skill only mitigates the problem.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/06/22 11:10:06


Post by: Crimson-King2120


Id say more luck than anything skill and army choice are still essential parts but i think its about 50% luck you can be the most skillful player with the best army list but if the dice gods decide its not your day your screwed


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/06/22 16:27:05


Post by: The Shadow


Army, Skill, Chance, in descending order of importance, is my view on things.

Of course, "Other" deserves a mention because there's so many other factors such as your familiarity with your opponent's army.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/06/22 20:07:31


Post by: Eldar Craft


There is no doubt that chance plays a huge part in the game. That's part of what makes it fun/frustrating. In my opinion I had to vote for mostly skill, because I feel like chance evaluation and mitigation is part of being a skilled player. Despite the chance factors there are people that do very well consistently because their strategy can stand up to some bad luck.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/07/24 11:32:47


Post by: elrabin


50% skill, 30% army, 20% chance.

Deployment is, IMO, the single most important aspect of the game. Terrain, mission, and matchup all influence deployment. A bad deployment can deny you objectives, first turn shooting, get you into combat quickly, etc. Furthermore, it's critical that you understand your opponent's strategy before the game begins so you can do your best to disrupt it.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/07/24 13:31:12


Post by: Davylove21


60% Army, 30% luck 10% skill

The only skill in this game is picking favourable match-ups for your units. You need to maximise the odds of rolling a success, which means maximisng the number of dice and minimising the numbers needed on those dice.

I don't really see a 'skill game' on the Crystal Maze being a game of 40K. Once you're familiar with your own army and those of your opponents, winning is all done in the list


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/07/24 14:18:22


Post by: tundrafrog1124


Some armies require more skill than others. But you need "luck" still though.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/07/24 19:36:01


Post by: Charlatan


I think it's honestly controlled by whether there's a proper amount of terrain.

One of the things that hampers strategy in 40k is range. On a 6x4 table, with heavy weapons that have common ranges from 24'' to 48'' a lot of units start out in range of eachother.

If there's a proper amount of terrain (is it 1/3 LoS blocking they recommend?) all kinds of strategies to get into an advantageous situation become available.

Without a decent amount of terrain, it's a shoot-off / race to charging distance from turn 1 and random chance / unbalanced units have much more affect on the game than any strategem.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/09/26 17:28:01


Post by: Rustgob


I reckon that they're equally responsible for the outcome. If you fail to write a good army list or have bad skill, you'll be at a disadvantage.

A bad player with good dice won't always win, for example.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/09/26 17:48:28


Post by: Sigvatr


Hard to tell.

Most of the game once it's begun is decided by luck. What matters more is a strong army list though...and in the end, codex power varies as well...you have ridiculously OP WAAC codex stuff like GK, but on the other side, there's Tyranids / Tau.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/09/26 20:12:49


Post by: Sharkvictim


Some army builds are vastly superior to entire other codices, no matter what the crank out of it. I voted army selection.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/09/27 11:05:58


Post by: Bonde


I'd say skill first, but very closely follow by chance and army, so something like: skill 40% army 30% chance 30%. A bad player CAN lose with a powerful army against a skilled opponent


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/10/28 10:45:22


Post by: Fafnir


Army and chance are the major factors in 40k, especially 6th edition. A more skilled player is going to have an advantage, but 6th edition does a lot to lower the influence of player skill from 5th.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/11/02 23:32:13


Post by: CrazyBones


I'd say all three are necessary to win but considering some of the meta builds that power creep has allowed for....some armies are almost a win button for even the less skilled general.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/11/05 02:57:27


Post by: cox.dan2


I think Army of choice can affect chance, I like the Orks (not just because they are really sweet) But because I can roll 30+ dice in a single charge, even with a low BS the chances of getting good rolls is higher. and a high point match (1000) can make a small elite force like Space Marines become heavily outnumbered by all the Dakka.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/11/29 10:37:35


Post by: Lockark


I say down the middle, thow leaning more to Skill/Army. You need to have atleast 2 out of the 3 to be able to win a game.

But because chance is just that... Random chance. It means it leans towords:

1)You can't win if your army is garbage.
2)You Can't win if you don't know how to play that army well.

If you have the 1st two, you can make up for bad luck.


It is possible to win if you have the skill/Good Luck, or the Army/Good Luck. Thow Wining a game just because you had amazing luck is more a expection then the general rule of how you win a Warhammer Game.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/11/29 15:39:20


Post by: SneakyMek


I'd say it's mainly based on chance, after all it dosen't matter how good of an army and tactics you have in the end it's all up to the dices. I've seen pretty darn good players with very balanced and hard hitting armies loose at the flick of the wrist due to bad luck with the dices.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2012/11/29 16:09:18


Post by: xSPYXEx


Really, it also depends on how large the game is.
A 500 point game is going to be really unpredictable, and based mostly on the luck of the dice gods. A 5000 point Apoc game will probably be much more in line with probabilities.
Of course, knowing how to build a list and how to use it effectively are also a big factor.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/01/31 11:41:45


Post by: DontEatRawHagis


I usually find its your actual army list that gives you the best chance. If you have a unit that can counter another you are a lot better off than someone who doesn't.

Examples:
*Anti-Flier Units
*Units that can get to the enemy's deployment zone fast.
*Template weapons vs Horde armies.

After that is skill.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/02/01 12:29:24


Post by: flamingkillamajig


I've played quite a bit and i never get how people claim that often armies rely on luck or a random element.

I don't even fully understand when people say a unit 'makes its points back'. Not every unit in an army is meant to kill sh*t. Sometimes they're meant to get an enemy's focus off of something else or are used as cannon fodder. The point of being a good player or having a good army is having a good cohesion in your army so that it all works well together.

Also my other problem is when people 'put all their eggs in one basket' and rely on luck completely for one thing. Yeah sure one combat didn't go your way. Sometimes that happens but if you're always relying on one unit to save the day for you then you're going to lose quite a bit. Maybe not every faction can afford it esp. if they're super elite but usually you don't want one unit being your only counter for an entire type of unit (melee, ranged infantry, armored infantry, tanks, etc.)

Then there's the problem with certain factions handling other factions or specific army builds better. I remember on one forum i was a part of that often times they mentioned one faction that used different army builds could take on certain races better and failed at others (such as facing tau or eldar believe it or not). I mean if you have an army that relies on something completely and you face an enemy army that basically counters how you built your list then you're probably gonna lose and when i say army i mean army composition and not the faction.

Saying that your game is entirely based on luck means you didn't prepare well enough for an army. Maybe you took the wrong army composition or fought the enemy on their terms rather than yours but it wasn't luck. To lose all the time as if the entire universe bets against you is a pretty ridiculous idea. Figure out what you're doing wrong or what you took wrong rather than blaming luck. I know blaming luck is easy but if you blame luck you'll never EVER change that supposed 'luck'. Even if you go to the horse races if you know the horses, the riders and the track well enough as well as weather and whatever else you're going to at least have better odds at winning. To me luck is an absurd idea and like superstitions and such.

I will admit some factions are possibly not that great but it's not like you're playing a game of chess with nothing but pawns facing somebody that has just as many pieces that are all worthwhile characters. Usually there's some kind of synergy you can work up but usually said synergy and tactics tend to develop and become more complicated with the more abilities said units have and how they can work together.

-----------------

So if i was to throw out how much is based on chance i'd say not a lot. If you always finds yourself with 'bad luck' you probably relied too much on one thing and if it didn't work you were screwed or bad synergy or maybe you make a bad list for at least the armies you face.

So yeah i'd say army composition of you and your enemy is the biggest thing. Cover is even a big deal for some armies so the lack of it is something to think about but once again that's absolutely relying on something which is bad.

Skill plays a much smaller part but it still matters as playing an army that has bad synergy or with plenty of gaps in it is going to suck regardless whereas if you're a bad player with a good list you can still pull out some wins though you will probably get owned with tactics and moves and such. If you are a great player with a great army composition you'll do really well though mostly because you know the inside and out of what you can do from knowledge of rules or using diversions and such. I'd imagine back in 5th edition 40k if you were facing plenty of guard tanks it'd be a good idea to glance each tank instead of trying to kill one so that you can force them not to shoot untill you make it into combat and so that you can spread the damage.

As far as luck goes i'd say it usually shouldn't matter. If you fail a lot something is causing this supposed 'bad luck' whether your army list is bad (against the army you face, bad army synergy or a lot of proper or enough counters for certain units), your tactics or something else possibly.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/02/02 03:51:01


Post by: Chongara


Assuming we're talking about on the table here and not counting skill at the list-building since that's wrapped up in "Army Composition" category.

75% Army Composition
15% Luck
10% Skull


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/02/10 10:23:29


Post by: Vasarto


Tau = Crap army
+ Chance = You will be able to take an objective
+ luck = you will not suffer a embarrising total loss of every last model off the table.


Its not even split its 60% army and 30% skill and 10% luck.
I played enough to know that a crappy army book can never win despite how good the player is and a less experienced and good player can easily beat a better player with more experience just because his codex is broken and he took over powered options that gave him multi shooting large template str 10 ap 1 blasts that go long range and I am sure I am remembering wrong but I think it was also ignoring over lol.

OH! not to mention that they are scouts AND psychers AND can move and still use all their powers....if I remember right. I just remember seeing a tank move as a scout and then move again in the movement phase and shoot 3 super long range str 10 large blasts that wiped much of an army off the table and OH! Each costs less then 500 points and they had 3 of them!

Zogging Zogwat!


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/02/17 20:06:53


Post by: Selym


I would like to have had an option for "Mostly army and luck"


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/03/04 15:49:28


Post by: xXWeaponPrimeXx


The dice rolling is all chance and praise to the dice gods. Deployment, movement, picking targerts and the like is all skill based.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/04/05 10:45:29


Post by: Waaghboss Grobnub


There have always been 3 factors

Army
Luck
Skill

Orks vs Dark Eldar? Orks have almost 0% of winning. Outgunned like crazy, Dark eldar can spam an infinite amount of ranged weaponry and clean up the greens in CC.

You might have the biggest guns,.. but if you keep rolling 1's they are useless.

Skill comes with the amount of games you play and your ability of insight.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/04/05 11:03:02


Post by: Kerrathyr


First option here.

With the possibile addition of "rules knowledge", but that may well reside within the "skills" part.

True, bad rolls may ruin an important volley of fire, whereas a lucky sev... ehm six array may bestow astounding overwatch results and so on...

But a good build, smartly placed, knowing the limits of own and opponent's army may... err.. "cushion" the impact of 'unwishful rolls'


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/04/05 15:25:09


Post by: Stoned Monkey


When you first start it's chance. Then if it depends on you're army:
If it's an easy army like IG it's more "I've got more guns than you, I win" and you win with you're army.
If it's a subtle, tactical army you win with skill.
If it's Orks you lose because the entire army forgets why it's there, who it's fighting or where "here" is. They then proceed to dribble, look lazily at the sky and then get massacred.


( no offence Ork players, but my mate loves Orks and is always disappointed when he is destroyed on the board. It can't be him because we all field each others armies and despite different leaders they still haven't won a battle since before Christmas)


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/04/05 15:41:55


Post by: Selym


 Stoned Monkey wrote:
When you first start it's chance. Then if it depends on you're army:
If it's an easy army like IG it's more "I've got more guns than you, I win" and you win with you're army.
If it's a subtle, tactical army you win with skill.
If it's Orks you lose because the entire army forgets why it's there, who it's fighting or where "here" is. They then proceed to dribble, look lazily at the sky and then get massacred.


( no offence Ork players, but my mate loves Orks and is always disappointed when he is destroyed on the board. It can't be him because we all field each others armies and despite different leaders they still haven't won a battle since before Christmas)

Tell him to go full Bad Moonz and Speed Freekz.
He'll understand


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/04/05 21:41:50


Post by: Grotzar


I'd say about 45% chance and skill and 10% army


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/04/05 22:13:49


Post by: Stoned Monkey


Bad moonz and speed freekz, ok.
His are blue and rusty orange, but I don't know what clan they are (if they are one, he makes stuff up a lot)


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/05/08 10:07:53


Post by: Shaozun


 Sonophos wrote:
I think that GW deliberately power up each new dex to encourage power players to buy a new army.

Things like GK terminators costing the same as SM terminators point for point doesn't look like an obvious one but ion game having them as troop choices is significant.

The Introduction of the stormraven and the valkyrie are two more obvious balance throws along with BAs getting Jump infantry in their troop choices for the same points as a FA from the SM dex.

GW just introduce a couple of game breakers in each dex so you are best off looking for these and including them in your army but beware they will cost you a small fortune to put into practice due to the less than hidden price policy of GW.


Do you even know what their gross profit margin is mate?


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/05/08 14:41:48


Post by: Mad Boss Morgrot


1/3 1/3 1/3 for me. Sometimes you can have sure fire things go completely wrong.
Like rolling 13 1s with a squad during a shooting phase! That's just BAD luck, no
Skill involved in that!


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/05/08 18:34:08


Post by: Uial-Ras


Mix between chance and army


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/05/08 18:49:32


Post by: Filch


 Vasarto wrote:
Tau = Crap army
+ Chance = You will be able to take an objective
+ luck = you will not suffer a embarrising total loss of every last model off the table.


Its not even split its 60% army and 30% skill and 10% luck.
I played enough to know that a crappy army book can never win despite how good the player is and a less experienced and good player can easily beat a better player with more experience just because his codex is broken and he took over powered options that gave him multi shooting large template str 10 ap 1 blasts that go long range and I am sure I am remembering wrong but I think it was also ignoring over lol.

OH! not to mention that they are scouts AND psychers AND can move and still use all their powers....if I remember right. I just remember seeing a tank move as a scout and then move again in the movement phase and shoot 3 super long range str 10 large blasts that wiped much of an army off the table and OH! Each costs less then 500 points and they had 3 of them!

Zogging Zogwat!


I have to agree.

You have to look at this issue from another perspective. I use to play M:TG, and each season there would be a few top tier decks. Because you can construct your own deck, and the secondary market for the cards used in the those tourney winning decks are dictated to be extremely over price due to limited supply even if they print several thousands copies of those cards combined by the insane demand, a novice player can purchase those expensive cards and still win with very little skill. Therefore Deck Build>Skill>Luck in magic the gathering.

Likewise in WH40K, there are top tier armies and cheese lists. I had been told that IG, Necrons, and Grey Knights. Necron have their night scythes flying circus. IG has their squadrons of cost effective 3 TL LC Vendettas. Grey Knights have their Storm Ravens. Each of these flyers are able to fulfill multiple roles as interceptors, transport and provide anti-armor for their army. Its not just the air superiority that they dominate with, its the army specific rules that pushes them over the edge. Re-animation protocol is like a invincible fnp save for every Necron. IG with their doctrines and commands gives them the numerical edge. The Grey Knights are just simply godlike with all the powerful upgrades.

If a child can take a top tier army and fight a 2nd tier army and win then you simply have no argument for skill or chance. What are you going to say? That the 2nd tier army had bad luck? The 2nd Tier Commander made novice mistakes? Those are just excuses for losing to a better army.

Now what if the child loses? Congratulations, you beat a child and took his candy.

source: http://www.belloflostsouls.net/2012/08/40k-editorial-most-powerful-armies-in_7.html


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/05/09 03:21:18


Post by: Chongara


50% Codex Choice
40% List Construction
10% Luck
~Dash of skill.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/05/09 15:08:24


Post by: Selym


Chongara wrote:
50% Codex Choice
40% List Construction
10% Luck
~Dash of skill.

I find that sentiment agreeable.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/05/10 02:22:46


Post by: washout77


Would you consider the ability to determine what units are the best and knowledge of good hard counters, "Skill"? I mean, it's not luck.

A lot of 40k right now comes from list construction. That alone can make or break your army before models even hit the table. At that point, it's up to your skill to know where to put your units to make the most effect and luck because we're relying on dice to give us good rolls


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/05/10 06:11:13


Post by: Selym


 washout77 wrote:
Would you consider the ability to determine what units are the best and knowledge of good hard counters, "Skill"? I mean, it's not luck.

A lot of 40k right now comes from list construction. That alone can make or break your army before models even hit the table. At that point, it's up to your skill to know where to put your units to make the most effect and luck because we're relying on dice to give us good rolls

I'd go with luck. Lucky the enemy didn't have the perfect list for killing you,


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/05/10 12:12:47


Post by: washout77


 Selym wrote:
 washout77 wrote:
Would you consider the ability to determine what units are the best and knowledge of good hard counters, "Skill"? I mean, it's not luck.

A lot of 40k right now comes from list construction. That alone can make or break your army before models even hit the table. At that point, it's up to your skill to know where to put your units to make the most effect and luck because we're relying on dice to give us good rolls

I'd go with luck. Lucky the enemy didn't have the perfect list for killing you,


Well, a true TAC list wouldn't have that problem because you would try to avoid things in your army that can easily be countered. You can invest all your eggs in one basket, and that's when luck comes into play.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/05/10 15:34:24


Post by: Selym


 washout77 wrote:
 Selym wrote:
 washout77 wrote:
Would you consider the ability to determine what units are the best and knowledge of good hard counters, "Skill"? I mean, it's not luck.

A lot of 40k right now comes from list construction. That alone can make or break your army before models even hit the table. At that point, it's up to your skill to know where to put your units to make the most effect and luck because we're relying on dice to give us good rolls

I'd go with luck. Lucky the enemy didn't have the perfect list for killing you,


Well, a true TAC list wouldn't have that problem because you would try to avoid things in your army that can easily be countered. You can invest all your eggs in one basket, and that's when luck comes into play.

While you are probably right, there is still the fact that you can just use net lists or mathammer or just dozens of games to work out the best possible list, and that really doesn't take much skill.

In fact, knowing that CSM cult troops are better than standard CSM in almost all builds takes no skill at all, and that's part of list building.

Between your point and mine, I'd say it has nothing to do with luck or skill...


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/06/09 10:57:23


Post by: Ugly Green Trog


While I know that skilled players can make the best of bad situations I'd have to weigh in on the side of army but most importantly your list. Now I know list writing is a skill in its own right but we can all find power lists on the Internet without having to actually come up with the combos on our own. Some books are just poorly written cheese fests and quite frankly GW should be ashamed for producing them, we will see what happens with the supposed release of every book this edition as to what the spread between top and bottom will be.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/06/09 11:02:17


Post by: Dakkamite


 Selym wrote:
I would like to have had an option for "Mostly army and luck"


+1

Guess how much skill can override say, a wall of Manticores with first turn? If you guessed "it can't do jack gak" then collect your prize!


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/06/09 14:44:02


Post by: TheGamer555


Skill 40%
Chance 30%
Army 30%


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/06/09 23:02:07


Post by: BaneGuard


I say other because I believe army and chance (in my experience) pay the most dividends. With alot of armies I find skill is often not involved, though it can contribute to the game. The only really skill alot of players I verse use is move forward and choose what to shoot at and nothing else (namely marine players)


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/06/10 01:42:21


Post by: ruthlessgamer


ALL chance. I have the WORST odds in any and all dice games i play, Why do you ask that i play warhammer? its still fun. Out of 40 dice (Twin linked) with 3+ BS and 3+ W, i did 6 wounds. NOT including the enemy getting saves... and thats not just once. i get that on average. Have i won? no. lol ive played 6 times and yes i do partly agree my skill could help my odds, but doesnt matter if im the master at warhammer 40k, i dont see anyone winning with 6 wounds per 40 shots.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/06/10 09:41:59


Post by: Gandohar


Combination of chance, skill and army.
That being said, chance plays a far higher part of 40k than WHFB.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/07/10 11:01:15


Post by: Leigen_Zero


 Selym wrote:
I would like to have had an option for "Mostly army and luck"


My vote goes in here too.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/07/10 17:05:22


Post by: ferret61


Anyone who says 40k takes skill to win obviously hasn't played it much.

Its 60% army 40% luck. All you have to do to win is take a cheesy list and hope you don't do something silly like roll all 1's. And thanks to certain writers *cough*Matt Ward*cough* taking an overpowered list is so easy.

Although if your not in a tournament and your not playing a jerk then it really is an equal balance.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/07/10 18:04:18


Post by: xole


If you play with a "strong" army and win most of your games, you're more likely to say skill matters than army.
If you play with a "weak" army or lose most of your games, you're more likely to say army matters than skill.
If you play with Chaos, it's 100% the will of the Gods, and may the Plague Father ever be on your side.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/09/12 11:36:14


Post by: rowan341


In most cases I'd say a mostly even split. Of course there are occasionally games which pure chance has a massive effect on the game through statistical anomalies.

 Gandohar wrote:
Combination of chance, skill and army.
That being said, chance plays a far higher part of 40k than WHFB.

Until you see someone using law of death and it all go right for them.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/09/12 19:57:45


Post by: sing your life


I'd say it's 45% chance, 40% skill and 15% army choice.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/09/18 16:15:42


Post by: Colony's


It's army and also skill, because if you want to have a nice coloured army and play well you have to get yourself an army that you love not some gak which you will stop collecting 5 minutes later. If you find an army of your dream then believe..... YOU WILL DO GREAT.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/09/19 18:41:21


Post by: Rune Stonegrinder


I feel that skill and chance play a good part in the game, and army choice is not really a factor its army composition. Just because I play codex X doesn't mean anything, if I'm not playing to the strengths of the codex X


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/09/25 07:20:49


Post by: Selym


 Rune Stonegrinder wrote:
I feel that skill and chance play a good part in the game, and army choice is not really a factor its army composition. Just because I play codex X doesn't mean anything, if I'm not playing to the strengths of the codex X

Unless it's a ward codex with no weaknesses...


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/12/16 02:15:12


Post by: TechMarine1


I picked "other" because, while it is not divided evenly, the current meta does add some skill back into the game, but is still dependent on the dice and what army you choose.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/12/16 08:42:02


Post by: Kavish


I used to think it was mostly dice and army list. Then I played someone who was good (winner of the state masters tournament). First game he beat me 18-0! Next game he brought a very un-competitive list to give me a chance. Still kicked my ass. Not as badly, but still. He says it's about knowing your army and your opponents (amongst other things). If you know what your units are capable of, and how to get the best out of them, you don't need the latest overpowered list. Just play your cards right and you'll win (unless your opponent is too good for you or has a significantly more powerful army).


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/12/16 13:04:40


Post by: fishy bob


 Selym wrote:
Necro much?

This poll appeared on the front page the 15th. So no, not necro much. The admins obviously want these threads to be open and running, which means you can probably stop making such posts in this sub forum.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2013/12/16 13:31:03


Post by: Soteks Prophet


mostly army, with a decent army and crap dice I can still beat a worse player with a comparable army. You might as well take an OP army for when the dice don't behave though..


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2014/04/21 11:01:37


Post by: MarkyMark


Depends on what game you are playing, if playing against someone who doesnt know the rules nor what he is doing then its pretty moot. If you are playing against a very good player, try and say its luck or army then. Yes some lists have hard counters which you can argue it is the army list beating you but mostly at the top tables at tournies, its skill.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2014/10/29 04:51:42


Post by: Geemoney


I choose army because there are certain match ups that you just can't win; and I think over the course of a game you roll enough dice that it generally evens out.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2014/10/29 05:10:41


Post by: Pyeatt


It's complicated and army based. I'm going to throw out some generalization numbers. Restrain yourselves from having an ulcer.

You could say top tier spam lists leave maybe 10% up to chance, 30% skill, 60% "I win because I'm a necron flying circus" or whatever.

DAEMONS, on the other hand... 50% Oh man I have so many charts (luck), 25% Skill, 25% "Eat me, 5+ Invul with rerolls and FNP everywhere"


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2014/12/30 10:07:55


Post by: Reality-Torrent


The game is based entirely on the roll of the dice. So it's 90% chance.. You can have the best army and the best strategy but if the dice are against you it wont matter.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2015/04/09 01:33:27


Post by: The Riddle of Steel


I can't believe that so many people are giving the credit/blame to luck!

First, there is no such thing as luck, just probability, which evens out for everyone over time. I don't believe any player is inherently, consistently "unlucky" with their dice game after game. If you roll enough dice over enough games, it evens out. Yes, a bad roll at the wrong time can be the difference between victory and defeat, but think about why your game came down to that single roll in the first place and you'll realize there were things you could have done better in order to have control of the game so that a few rolls at the end didn't make all the difference.

To me, blaming the dice for a loss is a weak excuse, almost as bad as blaming the refs in sports! If you play well enough, one bad die roll or one bad call by a ref won't cost you the game.

And dice may cost you one game, but it cannot explain why someone consistently wins or someone else consistently loses. The dice even out and player skill is what separates players over a large enough sample of games.

The dice keep it fun and unpredictable, but they don't determine why some players win consistently.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2015/04/11 23:56:10


Post by: KommissarKiln


Tau is the only faction I have ever seen (and likely will ever see) table another army at the top of turn 2. Game was less than 1000 points, but STILL.

With that said, any army can be played at a fairly competitive, but balanced, level, but the TFG's seem to have highlighted that if the most, most, most broken list from each army were played, one or two of those armies are clearly more broken than the rest.

In a non-tourney-triptide-demonfarm-whathaveyou environment, I'd say it's about 50/50 between skill and luck, with the army choice only providing variation in play styles.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2015/12/16 10:15:56


Post by: Slaphead


That is a tough one to call. I voted for a bit of everything. I've played a couple of games where tactically I thought I was in a better position than my opponent, but then kept rolling mainly 1's so my units just end up fluffing it. Nothing worse than having 2+ saves and continuously rolling 1's for those and any shooting or melee attacks

No matter how well you plan, if you roll poorly, then any strategy/ tactics that you formulated just go out the window. Having said that, those kind of games are still fun and can be pretty comedic which is why I love the game of 40k. If it was predictable and everything was guaranteed then it would soon become a dull game. The randomness/luck is one of the best parts of the game

Here are some threads I started a little while ago where some people have given examples of funny chance incidents in games. These kind of things are what I love about playing 40k.

Amusing battle stories:
http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/643893.page


Freakishly good/bad luck:
http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/663068.page




How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2015/12/16 20:42:52


Post by: Atlas Terrain


I think it's Army list and Skill.
You can create your own luck through your skill. If you can get yourself where its two die v one then you will always have better chances logically... not luckily...
... that being said a single 6 beats two 1s.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2015/12/17 17:25:36


Post by: Selym


Atlas Terrain wrote:
I think it's Army list and Skill.
You can create your own luck through your skill. If you can get yourself where its two die v one then you will always have better chances logically... not luckily...
... that being said a single 6 beats two 1s.
Except on morale checks, but those are rarely pivotal events.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2016/01/17 15:54:24


Post by: mrhappyface


People talking about skill and the right army being the most important don't realise that all you are doing is increasing your chances.
If I swap out a squad of marines for a squad of possessed I am increasing my chances of winning close combat.
If I decide to shoot at a squad of grots instead of a squad of boys I am increasing my chances of killing a unit.

40k is a game all about increasing your chance of winning. Yes you might be hitting on 3s and wounding on 2s (there by increasing your chance of killing me) but a good army and skill won't save you from rolling all 1s.

An example:
My flying daemon prince of nurgle vs a reg squad of marines. They fired 8 shots - six 6s! Wounded with 5 I rolled three 1s.If it was just down to army rules and not chance he wouldn't have wounded me.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2016/06/23 15:58:05


Post by: edwardmyst


I think the most important aspect is choosing your army (Particularly among the WAAC guys, choosing all OP lists and units trumps everything in this game because the bell curve on a d6 is so small I don't care how tactical you are, if the guy shows up with units you can't hurt, you're in trouble...and of course the answer to this is always, build a better army to meet him, so...).
Then it is skill on the table (It is all about match-ups for me...I must make sure I get my units into combat with units they have an advantage over, and avoid my opponents units that I do not have an answer for).
I put chance last because SO many d6's are rolled in 40k that the averages show up, not every game, they're still dice, but over the course of 3? Yes. (Yeah I have seen guys roll bad too so not an absolute, but I really think if you write down every single roll from a typical game, you will see statistics does work...) I have another suggestion for those who think they roll bad consistently...change dice (yes, we like to think those little cubes are random, but manufacturing can skew them...), and if that doesn't work, run horde armies that get to roll a LOT! The more dice you roll, the better!
I doubt any of this is new, but there's my opinion.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2016/06/23 18:56:50


Post by: Nightlord1987


Well, how much Skill or luck is all dependant on your army faction.

Some armies (eldar) already have reliable above average rolls to make, with Rerolls on top, and special rules that buff your army.

Other armies (orks) have more rolls but below average, with worse results, and very limited rerolls and rules that hurt your army.

So if you're rerolling your already good rolls, and ignoring most negative modifyers with your awesome rules, that sounds like easy mode to me.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2016/06/23 21:03:30


Post by: Wolfblade


Mostly army, then split between skill and luck. You can be the best general in the world, but rotten luck or terrible lists will get you crushed. But an average general with average luck who plays a power list (i.e. scatterbike spam) has the scales tipped in their favor by simply putting their army together well.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2016/06/23 21:52:42


Post by: ERJAK


40k has gating depending on how high you wanna get. First, to stand any chance you need a strong competitive list. This will give you the ability to win. Then you need skill. The only way you make too table at lvo is to be very very good at the army you play. Then luck, a few terrible dice rolls are all that seoerate most top tier players using top tier lists. It all starts in army building for us plebs though so that was my vote.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2016/06/24 03:04:25


Post by: JohnHwangDD


50% Army
30% Luck
20% Skill


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2016/07/25 09:30:40


Post by: Mellamoluigi


Anybody who says skill and luck over army plays with "that" army. I quote "I'm really good with all these scatter bikes and I just know the best way of using my wraithknight. Oh and these are just d weapons. Where, everywhere. But I've mastered them."


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2016/07/26 22:13:30


Post by: Rampage


Fine, go and pick up those scatter bikes and win a large event, I dare you.

There's a reason why the same 5 or so players are the only ones winning top quality events on a competitive circuit made up of hundreds.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2016/07/26 23:39:34


Post by: eskimo


Old thread, really needs new poll.

Merely 6th to 7th has thrown a spanner in the works. Random cards and the placing of objectives before choosing sides...


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2017/04/11 12:19:52


Post by: Youn


In a tournament setting,

50% Army Choice
25% Skill
25% Luck

In a friendly game using cards and objectives
50% Luck
25% Skill
25% Army choice

In a friendly game using just kill points
40% Army Choice
40% Skill
20% Luck


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2017/04/11 12:38:48


Post by: Eccentricnormality


I feel it takes a bit of everything. A skilled player with a bit of luck can win against an unskilled player with a theoretically strong army.

Of course this does mean that good players with strong armies and the knowledge to maximise chamce for thier advantage will be difficult to deal with, but the amount of work that takes to pull off generally makes it okay.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2017/04/11 12:55:23


Post by: Mr Morden


 Rampage wrote:
Fine, go and pick up those scatter bikes and win a large event, I dare you.

There's a reason why the same 5 or so players are the only ones winning top quality events on a competitive circuit made up of hundreds.


Don't most events play with their own set of House Rules to try and reign (a bit) the broken Power dexes / units ?


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2017/04/12 13:23:29


Post by: Stevefamine


Skill 20%
Chance 40%
Army 40%


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2017/04/12 13:31:39


Post by: KommissarKiln


I think there's a good chance these percent breakdowns and overall opinions may shift once people are settled into the new edition, so it may be worth rebooting this poll after 8th hits.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2017/04/26 00:09:12


Post by: Megaknob


How can it be anything other then army when it's this unbalanced


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2017/06/04 19:21:29


Post by: theCrowe


Me and a friend played an experiment. We each had exactly the same Space Marines army.

Captain, with command squad.
10 Scouts
Tactical Squad
Rhino
Razorback
Devastator Squad
Venerable Dreadnought

And whatdya know, it came out a (really enjoyable) draw.
Now most surprising perhaps is that I'm no 40k wizz and my friend is a seasoned tournament gamer. So in all honesty he should've beat me. Makes me think more than anything else that army is all it comes down to.


Here's a shot from the gripping conclusion of that game. It came down to an all out slobberknocker between Captains and dreadnoughts!



How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2017/06/04 21:13:22


Post by: Wolfblade


 theCrowe wrote:
Me and a friend played an experiment. We each had exactly the same Space Marines army.

Captain, with command squad.
10 Scouts
Tactical Squad
Rhino
Razorback
Devastator Squad
Venerable Dreadnought

And whatdya know, it came out a (really enjoyable) draw.
Now most surprising perhaps is that I'm no 40k wizz and my friend is a seasoned tournament gamer. So in all honesty he should've beat me. Makes me think more than anything else that army is all it comes down to.


Here's a shot from the gripping conclusion of that game. It came down to an all out slobberknocker between Captains and dreadnoughts!



So you removed the army part of this, so it came down to skill and luck. And no matter how skilled you are, nothing can help you if you roll nothing but 1s


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2017/06/04 21:26:32


Post by: theCrowe


True enough I suppose.

My point may be that where I would've expected a player who knows the game inside out to out play me with the same army, he didn't.

But you're right, Maybe he just rolled lots more 1s than me and luck balanced skill to result in a draw.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2017/06/14 12:23:35


Post by: Jammer87


I picked skill, but I think that includes army building and ensuring you have a list that can take all comers. I've seen top tier armies get destroyed by low tier armies because they lacked any knowledge or skill when it came to selecting their models/units. The really good players know the armies they play and put their models in a position to win the upper hand. Occasionally the dice will turn on you, but generally the odds will be in favor of those who put themselves in a good position.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2017/07/14 14:43:22


Post by: ChargerIIC


I feel like chance has the biggest contribution, followed by army construction. Even with a ton of terrain on the field and a 6x4' table, most units can shoot each other most of the game. It keeps with the epic feeling GW pitches, but there really isn't a lot of tactics involved.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2017/07/14 15:29:01


Post by: Selym


Oh lord, when will this thread die?

The poll was made in 2012. It's just wildly invalid now...


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2018/05/24 11:39:32


Post by: auticus


Army.

I know way too many people that roll others with strong armies but when given something not OP they struggle to win at all.

If skill mattered, then those people should be winning with weak armies as well.

But thats almost never the case.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2018/07/26 15:09:07


Post by: Skullphoquer


Skill is importent and the most skill is shown in the movement phase where you dont need chance(besides advance rolls).
A good list is also importent because your units have a synergy potential.
Chance is important as feth just look at these meele heavy armies if they dont pass the 2D6 chargeroll to start the fightphase they will get destroyed in their opponents turn.

I mean GW tried to reduce the importance of chance by all these reroll bubbles and stragemes, but otherwise this fact shows how important chance is.
Its still a dice game.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2018/09/28 10:30:15


Post by: Eowyn Cloud


In the end it all comes down to the rolling of dice. All one can do to up your chances of winning is min-max the amount of dice being rolled and the needed results on said dice. So I'd say mostly army list since the faction and list determines most of these.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2018/09/28 11:09:04


Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik


Mostly skill.

You can have a well hard army. But if you don't understand what makes it hard, you'll struggle. If you forget to go for objectives, or don't know how to do that effectively, you'll struggle.

You can have it's perks explained to you, but until you're on the field of battle, with random terrain, making it actually work isn't as easy as Netlisting might suggest.

Sure, a strong list can boost a fairly middling player somewhat - but it won't provide someone devoid of skill with a great many wins.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2018/10/29 15:54:41


Post by: odinsgrandson


I'm not quite sure what the survey means when it says "army."

Is it your choice of faction, or the actual army build that you're using?

Choice of faction will always be a factor, so long as GW can't get them all totally balanced, but your choices of what to bring within that faction has always been the greatest predictor of victory in 40k.

The intense strategic time is usually spent building army lists- and trying to squeeze every last drop of efficacy out of it. Once the troops hit the table, the game is a fairly simple practice of doing what you came to do- and good target priority.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2018/11/30 15:08:14


Post by: Frontline989


Army list has a lot to do with it but luck will ruin or save you without much rhyme or reason.

After that there are decisions you make during the game that can win or lose you the game.




How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2018/12/02 18:52:14


Post by: DarkBlack


I would be curious to know the split between people who play only 40k/GW and people familiar witb other games in tbe polls.

I'd bet most of the players who voted for even mix or skill are 40k only or mostly players.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2019/03/05 18:49:34


Post by: PuppetSoul


Some armies are at the mercy of high variance.

Some armies have a very high skill ceiling.

So army choice has a significant impact, with player skill having the most impact.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2019/03/06 03:16:51


Post by: Just Tony


This edition? Definitely army.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2019/09/11 17:08:45


Post by: odinsgrandson


If army choice means "What faction do you play" then I think that is a factor, but not the biggest one.

Army Building is the most decisive factor in 40k, and has been for a long time.

Faction choice will decide a game between evenly skilled opponents, and can give a decent handicap to a less skilled player making a list.

Luck factors in mostly when you have evenly matched lists (whether or not the players are evenly matched).


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2019/10/12 23:22:15


Post by: solohammer


Chose mostly army, because the models are probably the most important part of the game. second is luck. skill/experience varies greatly, but the former two options are better, because it determines the potential outcome, while the latter option of knowing how things work is advantageous, it doesn't gurantee victory, unlike army composition and luck of the dice roll.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2020/09/30 16:57:17


Post by: Mr Nobody


Would retention of rules count as skill? I have found that whoever can remember the most bonuses, buffs and stratagems tends to win the most games.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2020/09/30 17:44:03


Post by: Eihnlazer


Increasingly in high level tournament play it comes down to dice rolls.

Random matchups, saves, and advance rolls.

In my most recent tournament I was matched up with the overall winner in the last game and it could have gone either way but the dice were just not doing me any favors.

I outplayed him on primaries and he beat me on secondaries. Biggest swings were that my telemon charged guillamen and did no damage, which allowed him to survive through the game on 3 wounds later on (and he was a WWSWF model), his techmarine made a massive 6" advance to pop onto a point on turn 4, that same techmarine survived my callidius grav tank shooting at him by a combination of me only getting 4 wounds on him and him making 3/4 5+ saves, and me failing a charge with my aquilon terminators in turn 2 againgst his leviathan dreadnought, which would have stopped said dread from killing my tanks off.


The final score was 56-63, so it easily could have been my win. Dice just didnt like me.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2020/09/30 18:21:14


Post by: aphyon


In my experience prior to 8th ed it was half and half because units had defined role as everything could not hurt everything. a 2 shot 24" range assault melta gun as an example(good strength super good AP and damage) is just as good at killing infantry/heavy infantry as it is vehicles and monsterous creatures in 9th. where as before a las cannon was good at killing or damaging a vehicle with a single shot but was less effective against hordes/monsterous creatures and also could not move effectively. there were hard trade-offs

With the addition of stratagems (loads of them for every faction) the armies almost play on autopilot nearly guaranteeing hits and damage. making it more about what you bring and less about how you use it on the table.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2020/09/30 19:05:32


Post by: Blackie


People often confuse "weak" armies with non optimized lists. Skills and luck actually matters a lot.

The best list possible in the hand of an unexperienced player is not going anywere against an optimized list played buy someone who can actually play his army, not matter what tournament results say about his faction.

A non optimized SM list can lose badly against anyone. And a well optimized list of a "bottom" or "mid" tier army can definitely win against anyone if it has skills + luck on its side.

Of course if both players are equally experienced and roll close to averages list building is the most important factor to predict the outcome of the match, but still there's no guaranteed victory for the faction with better win rates.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2020/10/03 21:24:34


Post by: Cyel


WH40K is very decision-light. It's what I call a "purchase+luck" type of game, akin to MTG.

Very popular type because people generally like the idea that they can buy something that requires a lot of effort otherwise (things that are supposed to make you fit without diet or exercise say hello ) and the promise of getting lucky now and again is less offputting than the prospect of hard work at getting better.

Cool world and miniatures, but game ? Just no :]


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2020/10/30 15:53:24


Post by: odinsgrandson


Generally, the most skill based portion of 40k is in list building. The most successful players I've seen spend quite a lot of time min-maxing their army lists.

Once things hit the table, there are some target priority questions, but otherwise you mostly just do what your force was built to do. Throughout most editions of the game, I have not found myself making lots of crucial choices in the heat of battle, aside from identifying which enemy units are the most dangerous to your force (this can be contrasted against Blood Bowl, where making decisions on your turn is usually the deciding factor).

The luck element comes up, but it is seldom the deciding factor unless you get unlucky at a crucible moment.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2020/11/04 09:53:12


Post by: brumbaer


I think we agree on:
If two of those are equal the third one will decide the outcome.

IMHO:
Defining a universal numeric weight is impossible.
For one there is no way to measure relative skill, luck or army quality.
And there are many more deciding factors (add table size, terrain, mission, player mentality and I don't know what) which define the outcome.

You can design a battle in which all that counts is getting the first turn and not rolling that bad in the first turn.
In a game of two tournament players who both try to minimise the effect of luck it will have much less effect as in a game where one or both sides gamble.

So the relative value of a factor is "meta" dependent.

As an absolute value I think that "skill" is the most useful of those "qualities" to have, because it is the factor you can rely on most.
And depending on if the players create their army in contrast to give them an army to cope with "Army" and "Skill" are not independent.

On the other hand didn't Napoleon say:
I know he's a good general, but is he lucky?


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2021/05/14 15:58:56


Post by: ClockworkZion


Warhammer Weekly recently did a deep dive on skill in AoS and I feel we can split it up largely the same.

If you win less than two games at a 5 round tournament then you likely fall into the category of neither skill nor the codex determining your wins and it being more luck based.

If you go 2/3 or 3/2 then your skill is less important than the power of the army you have and the power of the army you face. Most of the time ths power boost from the codex will only mean 1 extra win for every 10-20 games but it will be influnced by the book.

If you go 4/1 or better than your skill matters more than the codex in all but games against people of equal skill level where that marginal win boost will increase your odds of winning, but at that level it's likely not a free win for any set number of games.

Now RnG can screw you over at any level but those 4/1 players are also people who push the RnG the furthest in their favor whenever they have to roll dice meaning even their bad games will be better than the majority of the player base.

Arguably because those 4/1 and better players are so skill and game knowledge dependent it should be worth looking at win rates with and without them included in the numbers to get an idea of both how an army is doing overall and how it performs for the average player.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2021/05/17 10:34:27


Post by: kodos


From my personal experience from AoS in the past:

I just wanted to try it and found a Stormcast list that was intresting with the guy playing it claiming he usually wins 4/1, 5/0 on tournaments
because it was a different concept I was not the only one trying it and while I was building and painting, others already played tournaments but everyone struggled to get past the 3/2 victories

so it was claimed to be the superior skill and experience needed to get this list working

until some of his battle reports raised a question on how he used some of the rules with the result that he played the main unit wrong (and the rules did not allow what he is doing)
while he claimed that we all do not understand how the rules work and just don't have the skill, it was FAQed shortly after with him going mad because with this change the list is unplayable and it is impossible to get 4/1 in tournaments with Stormcast


So for me it stays, the faction choice and army list is still the most important factor and than there is skill as the even the most skilled player will struggle with the bad factions/lists


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2021/06/15 20:00:46


Post by: Xenomancers


 ClockworkZion wrote:
Warhammer Weekly recently did a deep dive on skill in AoS and I feel we can split it up largely the same.

If you win less than two games at a 5 round tournament then you likely fall into the category of neither skill nor the codex determining your wins and it being more luck based.

If you go 2/3 or 3/2 then your skill is less important than the power of the army you have and the power of the army you face. Most of the time ths power boost from the codex will only mean 1 extra win for every 10-20 games but it will be influnced by the book.

If you go 4/1 or better than your skill matters more than the codex in all but games against people of equal skill level where that marginal win boost will increase your odds of winning, but at that level it's likely not a free win for any set number of games.

Now RnG can screw you over at any level but those 4/1 players are also people who push the RnG the furthest in their favor whenever they have to roll dice meaning even their bad games will be better than the majority of the player base.

Arguably because those 4/1 and better players are so skill and game knowledge dependent it should be worth looking at win rates with and without them included in the numbers to get an idea of both how an army is doing overall and how it performs for the average player.

This is BS. Mostly the armies with a strong power level advance. So essentially the "army" factor is nullified (to some degree) and at some point it is going to come down to making the right decisions and just dice. Sometimes youll make the right decisions and and youll roll above average and sometimes below average. Sometimes the only way you can win is to get lucky...it is a skill to know that I suppose.

All these things are important.
Army is certainly the most important factor though. Then skill then luck.

Army>Skill>Luck

I will say though. Good luck trumps everything - it is just unpredictable. However - it is the main reason why invune saves being all over the place is a real problem. A 5++ shouldn't be made at a 90% rate but the number of times it's lost me games is astounding. However if you break it down into a % of games won or lost by army/skill/luck - it would certainly hold true to that pattern.



How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2021/07/15 11:24:57


Post by: Jarms48


I would say a good player reduces chance as much as possible, an amazing player can pilot underperforming armies. We've seen that with a few Tau tournament wins even recently.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2021/07/15 11:33:12


Post by: kirotheavenger


I think that's partly because no one expects Tau. So even experienced players get completely blindsided by them because they completely ignored them as a competitive possibility, and even get complacent expecting an easy win.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2021/10/24 20:44:02


Post by: fistsofgork


To me, to ask the question of how random 40k is, is the same as asking:
-how random is rolling dice (d3s, d6s, 2d3s, etc)
-how many dice are rolled per game
-how correlated are dice rolls of different kinds (combat, mission rolls, etc) to objective points, and ultimately, wins/losses

I think if someone made a big enough Kaggle dataset collecting the right data, we could actually answer these questions. The data set might contain the following rows:
-roll type (d3, d6, etc)
-roll outcome (i.e., 1)
-roll purpose (shooting, melee, charge roll, psychic test, etc)
-change in objective points of player 1 since last turn
-change in objective points of player 2 since last turn
-more...

If I was still in school this might be a fun statistics or maybe even machine learning project. One issue with such a project is it would take a long time to gather data over a variety of friend groups/gaming clubs/codices/etc...and your findings might become outdated very quickly with a new edition.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2021/10/29 03:43:54


Post by: Insectum7


When I win it's 100% skill. When I lose it's 100% chance.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2021/11/03 13:20:36


Post by: the_scotsman


 Insectum7 wrote:
When I win it's 100% skill. When I lose it's 100% chance.


No, when you lose its because the opposing army was OP unfair and needs nerf.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2021/11/03 19:27:32


Post by: Insectum7


 the_scotsman wrote:
 Insectum7 wrote:
When I win it's 100% skill. When I lose it's 100% chance.


No, when you lose its because the opposing army was OP unfair and needs nerf.
Haha, me personally? Generally not. I'm usually about the last person to say something is OP. I'm far more likely to attribute something to being my own mistake or luck.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2021/11/04 14:28:19


Post by: the_scotsman


 Insectum7 wrote:
 the_scotsman wrote:
 Insectum7 wrote:
When I win it's 100% skill. When I lose it's 100% chance.


No, when you lose its because the opposing army was OP unfair and needs nerf.
Haha, me personally? Generally not. I'm usually about the last person to say something is OP. I'm far more likely to attribute something to being my own mistake or luck.


Not a dig at you at all, mostly just expanding on the typical attitude that comes with the 'when I lose its luck when i win its skill' mindset.


How much of 40k is based on Chance? How much on Skill? How much on Army Choice? @ 2022/06/08 16:20:14


Post by: popisdead


The best players understand the game rules to the point they look at how and what they can use to leverage that.

The fact there are extreme cases like the old Iron Hands or whatever is top dog (80% WR for months on end) that happened in the past is a circumstance of poor balance.