If im not mistakem, only the revenue are adjusted at constant currency, not the profit.

Edit: after looking more closely at the latest financial, the profit is also given in cc in some later page. And the growth is still fairly impressive. So GW growth seems to be in no way mainly dependant on the brexit

 streetsamurai wrote:

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
I really doubt the brexit drop had a huge influence on sales volume as just as GW haven't changed their MSRP during the brexit drop, I also doubt they changed their wholesale price much and it's not like independent retailers are suddenly giving away stuff for lower price either.

So the effect on the end consumer has been almost nothing unless they were importing GW stuff (which GW made difficult to do with their trade agreements) or buying direct from FW.

And one thing people do forget is while brexit most definitely helped GW overall, GW also has significant infrastructure in other countries. They don't just put their crap on a boat and wave goodbye to it, they have distribution centres in other countries and have stores in other countries. So along with the rise in revenue from brexit they've had a rise in costs, paying rent, wages and transport costs for their US distribution chain also jumped. Those things are a huge chunk of GW's expenses.

Pretty sure Gw pay the expenses they have in other countries with the revenu they make in them. So i dont think the brexit really rise their operating cost.

Their operating costs in other countries would have gone up by the same proportion as their revenue in those countries.

Obviously a drop in the GBP is good for GW, which is why I said "brexit most definitely helped GW overall" I was just pointing out that GW is not an exporter, they have infrastructure they need to support in other countries as well, so they can't really leverage the drop in the GBP the same way some other companies might (as GW was being compared to other companies in posts prior to mine).

For example a company that operates wholly in the UK might have 50M operating costs, 30M revenue in the UK and 30M revenue in the US, thus 10M profit. If the GBP drops by a third, their US revenue might jump to 40M (either through increased volume or better return for the same volume) but they don't incur additional costs and thus they have doubled their profits. That's NOT how GW operates, they have significant operating costs in the US as well so their operating costs also have to be adjusted.

Still a net positive, but not nearly as significant as a company that keeps their operational costs in the UK (I imagine companies like Aston Martin keep much of their costs in the UK so can really leverage a weaker GBP in a way GW can't).

Brexit will have played its part, but is not going to be the only reason they have had a bumper year.

For a company that sells 70% of its product overseas it would have made an extra 10-20% when converting the USD to GBP since the Brexit vote depending on the time of conversion and up to 18% on Euro transactions.

It sounds like they have made considerably more than the extra 20% (absolute maximum from currency conversions) in revenue this year.

I'm pleased for GW to have been making more money than recent history. They appear to be reinvesting it in new miniatures and listening to what their player base wants to some degree. Sure they're not perfect, but I doubt they'll ever be able to please everyone with such a wide spanning range.

Honestly this doesn't surprise me much. What surprised me was that they didn't drop off a cliff during the last few years when AoS first dropped and 40k was borderline unplayable. It made me realize that their core business really is the "hobby" a their paints, miniatures, and the game is secondary to many of their customers who really can be classified as collectors.

It doesn't describe me, but the numbers tell the story. Now that they've stopped actively antagonizing their own customers and working in a sealed culture bubble I'm not surprised they are doing well.

 ZebioLizard2 wrote:

Mitochondria wrote:
I'm not happy about this.

Prices and rules are still gak.

GW should he punished, not rewarded for their behavior.

Punished for what behavior exactly?

Having customers that dare to disagree with Mitochondria I guess?

streetsamurai wrote:If im not mistakem, only the revenue are adjusted at constant currency, not the profit.

Edit: after looking more closely at the latest financial, the profit is also given in cc in some later page. And the growth is still fairly impressive. So GW growth seems to be in no way mainly dependant on the brexit

The growth is more than impressive. In North America it's been ridiculously good.

As for constant currency, I've tried explaining this a few times but I'm not doing a very good job of it I think. It's an accounting tool used to make sure that underlying revenue figures are not hidden by a currency shift. It allows investors to see whether your overseas operations are actually doing better or worse, without the final sum being masked by a currency shift. Basically, when everyone keeps saying "GW's foreign income is worth more now because of the currency shift", that's what constant currency figures are designed to account for and remove from the final tally. What constant currency figures do not account for is increased sales because your product is cheaper now overseas, because that's not how constant currency works.

For example;

phillv85 wrote:Brexit will have played its part, but is not going to be the only reason they have had a bumper year.

For a company that sells 70% of its product overseas it would have made an extra 10-20% when converting the USD to GBP since the Brexit vote depending on the time of conversion and up to 18% on Euro transactions.

It sounds like they have made considerably more than the extra 20% (absolute maximum from currency conversions) in revenue this year.

This is exactly what the constant currency figures have already accounted for. They've eliminated the raw percentage shift from the currency movement. What's left is the genuine increase in like for like sales. The constant currency calculation does not however account for increased sales caused by the product becoming cheaper to import due to the currency movement. There really is no tool as such for doing that. The best we can do is look at their firgures in different markets and over time to make reasoned deductions.

So for example, we know that UK growth was ok, but not spectacular, from mid-2016 to mid-2017. We know they shut some of their worst performing stores and opened some new ones like the "flagship" Tottenham Court Road store (which was supposedly the test bed for a new store design/branding). They invested in updating the merchandising and some of the other elements of their UK retail outlets, which returned them to profitability, albeit it only just. We also know that growth was much more sluggish in markets that benefitted less from the devaluation of the pound. Australia and New Zealand for example saw some growth, but it was pretty humble. We also know that the two markets that benefitted the most from the currency shift - the US and the EU - saw the biggest growth, by a massive margin.

It's probable therefore, (but by no means certain) that the biggest influencing factor was the currency shift reducing prices in the US and EU markets. Even if they just stopped a potential price increase, that alone can be valuable. The timing meshes with the release of the AOS general's handbook, but then in that case we should have seen big increases in the UK and AUS/NZ markets, unless these markets have hit close to their saturation point, which is unlikely given the past sales history of GW.

Another alternative of course is that GW is cooking its books, but that's highly unlikely

dosiere wrote:Honestly this doesn't surprise me much. What surprised me was that they didn't drop off a cliff during the last few years when AoS first dropped and 40k was borderline unplayable. It made me realize that their core business really is the "hobby" a their paints, miniatures, and the game is secondary to many of their customers who really can be classified as collectors.

It doesn't describe me, but the numbers tell the story. Now that they've stopped actively antagonizing their own customers and working in a sealed culture bubble I'm not surprised they are doing well.

Except they almost did. Well, I say almost, they only made £13 million odd profit (after tax) in the year ending May 2016, which by GW standards is not great. They acknowledged openly that they'd had a terrible Christmas period and that the business was not performing the way they'd hoped, which is why they started to make some changes. Then they appear to have been handed the golden boost on a platter with the Brexit vote.

bouncingboredom wrote:

streetsamurai wrote:If im not mistakem, only the revenue are adjusted at constant currency, not the profit.

Edit: after looking more closely at the latest financial, the profit is also given in cc in some later page. And the growth is still fairly impressive. So GW growth seems to be in no way mainly dependant on the brexit

The growth is more than impressive. In North America it's been ridiculously good.

As for constant currency, I've tried explaining this a few times but I'm not doing a very good job of it I think. It's an accounting tool used to make sure that underlying revenue figures are not hidden by a currency shift. It allows investors to see whether your overseas operations are actually doing better or worse, without the final sum being masked by a currency shift. Basically, when everyone keeps saying "GW's foreign income is worth more now because of the currency shift", that's what constant currency figures are designed to account for and remove from the final tally. What constant currency figures do not account for is increased sales because your product is cheaper now overseas, because that's not how constant currency works.

For example;

phillv85 wrote:Brexit will have played its part, but is not going to be the only reason they have had a bumper year.

For a company that sells 70% of its product overseas it would have made an extra 10-20% when converting the USD to GBP since the Brexit vote depending on the time of conversion and up to 18% on Euro transactions.

It sounds like they have made considerably more than the extra 20% (absolute maximum from currency conversions) in revenue this year.

This is exactly what the constant currency figures have already accounted for. They've eliminated the raw percentage shift from the currency movement. What's left is the genuine increase in like for like sales. The constant currency calculation does not however account for increased sales caused by the product becoming cheaper to import due to the currency movement. There really is no tool as such for doing that. The best we can do is look at their firgures in different markets and over time to make reasoned deductions.

So for example, we know that UK growth was ok, but not spectacular, from mid-2016 to mid-2017. We know they shut some of their worst performing stores and opened some new ones like the "flagship" Tottenham Court Road store (which was supposedly the test bed for a new store design/branding). They invested in updating the merchandising and some of the other elements of their UK retail outlets, which returned them to profitability, albeit it only just. We also know that growth was much more sluggish in markets that benefitted less from the devaluation of the pound. Australia and New Zealand for example saw some growth, but it was pretty humble. We also know that the two markets that benefitted the most from the currency shift - the US and the EU - saw the biggest growth, by a massive margin.

It's probable therefore, (but by no means certain) that the biggest influencing factor was the currency shift reducing prices in the US and EU markets. Even if they just stopped a potential price increase, that alone can be valuable. The timing meshes with the release of the AOS general's handbook, but then in that case we should have seen big increases in the UK and AUS/NZ markets, unless these markets have hit close to their saturation point, which is unlikely given the past sales history of GW.

Another alternative of course is that GW is cooking its books, but that's highly unlikely

dosiere wrote:Honestly this doesn't surprise me much. What surprised me was that they didn't drop off a cliff during the last few years when AoS first dropped and 40k was borderline unplayable. It made me realize that their core business really is the "hobby" a their paints, miniatures, and the game is secondary to many of their customers who really can be classified as collectors.

It doesn't describe me, but the numbers tell the story. Now that they've stopped actively antagonizing their own customers and working in a sealed culture bubble I'm not surprised they are doing well.

Except they almost did. Well, I say almost, they only made £13 million odd profit (after tax) in the year ending May 2016, which by GW standards is not great. They acknowledged openly that they'd had a terrible Christmas period and that the business was not performing the way they'd hoped, which is why they started to make some changes. Then they appear to have been handed the golden boost on a platter with the Brexit vote.

Yeah, I know what CC is. But the thing is, the product has not gotten cheaper (bar for FW), cause, unless I'm mistake, a retailer buy GW product from GW North-America (and they get charged in US dollars) (and the price has not changed since the Brexit AFAIK). If a US retailer had to pass by GW UK, then the pound devaluation would have helped them, but presently, since GW is regionally structured, i'm pretty sure it's not the case.

There are still two options, both of which utilise a degree of creative accounting. One is to use an unrealistic figure to do the constant currency calculation. Obviously the currency moves about during the year, but final accounting figures can only be adjusted by one block figure. By picking an unrepresentative figure you can basically fiddle the true currency adjusted figure. The other thing you can do is mess with totals by selective application of which year gets adjusted, so there's a difference in adjusting this years figures using last years currency rate vs adjusting last years figures using this years currency rate.

Well, you have shop owners in this thread saying they don’t get a discount even after Brexit, and their prices (in, say, USD) are the same as before. But you’re saying others do, and in fact a big chunk of GWs revenue increase comes from increased purchases from retailers who get presumably huge discounts so they can stockpile stuff. Where did you get this info? How do you know that these Brexit discounts are so widespread that we can attribute a large part of increased sales to them? And further, that GWs new policies and behaviour are secondary to the Brexit effect as you seem to imply?

The pound would have to lose a third of its value to cover a 50% increase in sales, and that's only if all sales were abroad and in other currencies. So obviously poppycock. I know my FLGS pays GW in pounds, and can offer a better discount when the pound is weak.

Mymearan wrote:Well, you have shop owners in this thread saying they don’t get a discount even after Brexit, and their prices (in, say, USD) are the same as before. But you’re saying others do, and in fact a big chunk of GWs revenue increase comes from increased purchases from retailers who get presumably huge discounts so they can stockpile stuff. Where did you get this info? How do you know that these Brexit discounts are so widespread that we can attribute a large part of increased sales to them? And further, that GWs new policies and behaviour are secondary to the Brexit effect as you seem to imply?

I believe it was people who used to own shops in this thread, and this being the internet I can't verify their statements, so all I have to work with is the fixed, known variables available to me. The issue of Brexit discounts driven (I'm still crunching some maths on the possibility of a constant currency fudge) as opposed to GW policy/behaviour driven is that if it was policy/behaviour then we would expect to see broadly similar increases across the board in all territories. Instead what we're seeing are modest increases in sales in places like UK/AUS, but much, much larger increases in the territories that gained the most advantage from the currency movement, those being the US and EU. It's never going to be all one factor, if it was purely currency related there would be very little UK movement yet there has been some, so it's more a question of "what is the predomnating factor?"

Logical deduction would at this point lead us to something currency related being the predominant factor.

lord_blackfang wrote:The pound would have to lose a third of its value to cover a 50% increase in sales, and that's only if all sales were abroad and in other currencies. So obviously poppycock. I know my FLGS pays GW in pounds, and can offer a better discount when the pound is weak.

No it wouldn't. The pound could drop by say 5% and that discount could theoretically drive people overseas to buy 20% more product for example. That's a little extreme but it illustrates the point.

Pretty stunning turn around compared to what the old management were doing. Lets hope hubris does not take over.

Good for them, hope they dont make the same mistake they made with LOTR bubble.

 Formosa wrote:
Good for them, hope they dont make the same mistake they made with LOTR bubble.

To be fair I think with that bubble it was more the sudden nature of it that shocked GW. That and I think that they kind of felt that their new LotR sales figures were going to generate similar figures to their other ranges because the kind of person buying into the hobby was the same as their fantasy/40K lines. So the sudden drop off of casual buyers I think caught them by surprise; esp as unlike the action toy market and most others matured on film merchandise; GW didn't have another film franchise to launch people into.

They already stated something to the effect that future profits likely won't be this good so they're well aware of such a threat.

They're definitely learning from past mistakes.

 lord_blackfang wrote:
The pound would have to lose a third of its value to cover a 50% increase in sales, and that's only if all sales were abroad and in other currencies. So obviously poppycock. I know my FLGS pays GW in pounds, and can offer a better discount when the pound is weak.

Where are you located? It makes sense for minor markets to pay in GBP, but major markets which have their own distribution centers (USA, Australia/NZ) it makes much more sense for those distribution centers to sell in the local currency.

bouncingboredom wrote:

Mymearan wrote:Well, you have shop owners in this thread saying they don’t get a discount even after Brexit, and their prices (in, say, USD) are the same as before. But you’re saying others do, and in fact a big chunk of GWs revenue increase comes from increased purchases from retailers who get presumably huge discounts so they can stockpile stuff. Where did you get this info? How do you know that these Brexit discounts are so widespread that we can attribute a large part of increased sales to them? And further, that GWs new policies and behaviour are secondary to the Brexit effect as you seem to imply?

I believe it was people who used to own shops in this thread, and this being the internet I can't verify their statements, so all I have to work with is the fixed, known variables available to me. The issue of Brexit discounts driven (I'm still crunching some maths on the possibility of a constant currency fudge) as opposed to GW policy/behaviour driven is that if it was policy/behaviour then we would expect to see broadly similar increases across the board in all territories. Instead what we're seeing are modest increases in sales in places like UK/AUS, but much, much larger increases in the territories that gained the most advantage from the currency movement, those being the US and EU. It's never going to be all one factor, if it was purely currency related there would be very little UK movement yet there has been some, so it's more a question of "what is the predomnating factor?"

Logical deduction would at this point lead us to something currency related being the predominant factor.

lord_blackfang wrote:The pound would have to lose a third of its value to cover a 50% increase in sales, and that's only if all sales were abroad and in other currencies. So obviously poppycock. I know my FLGS pays GW in pounds, and can offer a better discount when the pound is weak.

No it wouldn't. The pound could drop by say 5% and that discount could theoretically drive people overseas to buy 20% more product for example. That's a little extreme but it illustrates the point.

GW
UK growth being weak after the Brexit compared to the other market probably is due to the difficult economic situation it caused in this country. Since GW stuff is pure hobby expense, it's pretty much the first thing that gets cut when the budget is a bit tighter

bouncingboredom wrote:
I believe it was people who used to own shops in this thread, and this being the internet I can't verify their statements, so all I have to work with is the fixed, known variables available to me.

No, I'm a current retailer. I opened my shop in 2009. GW's prices in the US, both direct from them and from all other major distributors, have remained completely unchanged since their last big price hike back in 2012 or 2013 or so. Have you considered the possibility that Australia's growth was lower because by all accounts GW's prices over there are obscene, which limits growth potential, and that the UK's growth was lower because GW is much more of a household name over there, meaning a much higher percentage of the potential market is already tapped? Those seem like more plausible explanations to me, considering Brexit had zero effect on US prices at any level of the supply chain. I can't speak for the EU, though.

I really doubt the Brexit vote had anything to do with an increase in sales of GW products in the US and the EU, since GW's prices have not changed at all. The only thing we in the US buy from GW in GBP are Forge Wold kits. Those prices were definitely affected by Brexit but FW is not large enough to account for this blossoming of profitability.

What is far more likely is that the management changes have pushed consumer confidence up. GW's core games are in a much healthier position today than they have been in probably 5 years or more. GW focusing on social media, GW focusing on sharing information, GW offering more bundles (with good discounts), GW releasing a more well rounded 40k game system, GW releasing lots of codexes, GW updating and FAQing on a consistent basis, etc. are all playing into this. GW has entered the 21st century and is embracing modernity. The buying public has very much rewarded GW for doing this.

Forums are so binary... it's not an either/or.

The Brexit effect is that sales they would have made anyway will have 100% definitely made them more money via currency exchange shenanigans. Weak pound = exports get you more money, and sales are more profitable. Of course they didn't pass that on to wholesalers/retailers and lower their prices! They kept it. No visible outward change + currency benefit = profit.

That they have delivered two revamped game systems, a bunch of splash releases and their best models for donkeys years in that time and driven sales up too is why the figures look so damn good.

It's not one or the other, both are reasons for the upswing.

 JohnnyHell wrote:
Forums are so binary... it's not an either/or.

The Brexit effect is that sales they would have made anyway will have 100% definitely made them more money via currency exchange shenanigans. Weak pound = exports get you more money, and sales are more profitable. Of course they didn't pass that on to wholesalers/retailers and lower their prices! They kept it. No visible outward change + currency benefit = profit.

That they have delivered two revamped game systems, a bunch of splash releases and their best models for donkeys years in that time and driven sales up too is why the figures look so damn good.

It's not one or the other, both are reasons for the upswing.

Logic and reason? How dare you.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:

 JohnnyHell wrote:
Forums are so binary... it's not an either/or.

The Brexit effect is that sales they would have made anyway will have 100% definitely made them more money via currency exchange shenanigans. Weak pound = exports get you more money, and sales are more profitable. Of course they didn't pass that on to wholesalers/retailers and lower their prices! They kept it. No visible outward change + currency benefit = profit.

That they have delivered two revamped game systems, a bunch of splash releases and their best models for donkeys years in that time and driven sales up too is why the figures look so damn good.

It's not one or the other, both are reasons for the upswing.

Logic and reason? How dare you.

I'll be burnt as a heretic soon, mark you.

streetsamurai wrote:
GW
UK growth being weak after the Brexit compared to the other market probably is due to the difficult economic situation it caused in this country. Since GW stuff is pure hobby expense, it's pretty much the first thing that gets cut when the budget is a bit tighter

The UK is doing well. Being British we like to complain about everything, particularly first world problems; "Ugh, it's so expensive now to take the kids abroad during the school holidays". Poor didums. The reality is that GW has had a rough time in recent years. They're headed in a better direction lately, but there's still a long way to go to unwind some of the mistakes of the past.

Benn Roe wrote:
No, I'm a current retailer. I opened my shop in 2009. GW's prices in the US, both direct from them and from all other major distributors, have remained completely unchanged since their last big price hike back in 2012 or 2013 or so. Have you considered the possibility that Australia's growth was lower because by all accounts GW's prices over there are obscene, which limits growth potential, and that the UK's growth was lower because GW is much more of a household name over there, meaning a much higher percentage of the potential market is already tapped? Those seem like more plausible explanations to me, considering Brexit had zero effect on US prices at any level of the supply chain. I can't speak for the EU, though.

To put some perspective on how much the UK market still has left in it, when I first started playing 40K (2nd edition, aging myself a little) they used to run TV adverts, had distribution deals with major high street retailers, and gaming groups exclusive to GW products were everywhere with very solid numbers (our school, in a fairly small town 10 miles from the nearest GW store had 20 regulars at the group and a lot more people who played but didn't attend the group). Now they're running with one-man stores for the most part. They're a long way from their heyday, but with the right approach they could probably get back there.

Anyway, to the point. I did some very, very crude number crunching and by using what I think is a more realistic constant currency adjustor you get figures from the US and EU which are much more comparable with those from the rest of the world, still showing good growth in underlying sales (new stores, new products like AOS handbook, recovering from a rough year in 2015/16) but a little less hyperbolic shall we say. Smiles all round

Red_Five wrote:What is far more likely is that the management changes have pushed consumer confidence up. GW's core games are in a much healthier position today than they have been in probably 5 years or more. GW focusing on social media, GW focusing on sharing information, GW offering more bundles (with good discounts), GW releasing a more well rounded 40k game system, GW releasing lots of codexes, GW updating and FAQing on a consistent basis, etc. are all playing into this. GW has entered the 21st century and is embracing modernity. The buying public has very much rewarded GW for doing this.

I wouldn't hold your breath on that. I see a lot of peope grumbling already and it hasn't even been out that long. Any new release like this - especially of a game as important as 40K - is basically a license to print money. The volume orders from 3rd party retailers alone would have generated some healthy profits. Much hinges on where they go from here, in particular their strategy for retail outlets. It'll be an interesting next couple of years for sure.

 I see a lot of people grumbling already and it hasn't even been out that long.

Welcome to Dakkadakka.

Erm.....the UK isn’t doing well.....like, at all?

Growth revised downwards, wages stagnant, cost of living soaring...that’s not a healthy economy!

Sorry to hear that. :(

(Though I think it's safe to say you're not alone..)

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Erm.....the UK isn’t doing well.....like, at all?

Growth revised downwards, wages stagnant, cost of living soaring...that’s not a healthy economy!

Guessing I know how that chap above voted... because I agree with you, 'doing well' we ain't.

Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:Erm.....the UK isn’t doing well.....like, at all?

Growth revised downwards, wages stagnant, cost of living soaring...that’s not a healthy economy!

Do you have any idea how silly that sounds; "The UK isn't doing well at all because the OBR revised its annual growth forecast down slighty". So the economy is growing at a fairly sound rate, better than it has done in a while, but apparently now that's a sign it's not doing well? Not least the fact that a few days after the OBR did that, new data was released which cast doubt over their assertions and now there's growing talk that they may have grossly underestimated potential growth over the final quarter. Unemployment is at a record low level. Total active participation in the workforce is at a record high. Government borrowing throughout the year has been less than previously forecast because of unexpectedly higher tax income. Yeah, the roof is falling in...

And wages aren't stagnant. They're not growing as fast as some people hoped, which is a very different thing. Nor is the cost of living "soaring". Since Labour came to power back in '97 the target rate of inflation set by the government has been 2%, a target which the UK has consistently failed to achieve virtually every year since the target was introduced. Just a couple of years ago the main concern of government was that prices would enter deflation, which is a really serious place for an economy to be in. Now inflation is running at a little under 3%, not that far over the target rate and certainly much better than going the other way, and yet for some reason the BBC and the Guardian newspaper are losing their minds.

Meanwhile, anyone with a passing interest in economics recognises this as a) being actual a solid state of affairs. Not brilliant, but good. And b) being the after effect of almost a decade of wage growth outstripping price growth. We've been having it nice for a long time, some people are just getting upset because milk might go from being £1 for 4 pints to £1.03 for 4 pints.

Baron Klatz wrote:Sorry to hear that. :(

(Though I think it's safe to say you're not alone..)

It really isn't bad. Brexit has caused a lot of division and the current government is not particularly popular, even with their own side. As such there are a tremendous number of people who want the economy to fail just so they can get their own way. Think of them as being like that guy earlier in this thread who was hoping GW "gets what it deserves" or whatever it was he said. As always, politics does not mix well with economics.

For anyone not in the UK, the above post is more fantastical than space wizards firing mind bullets.

And anyway, the thread should be about the company that makes the space wizards.

No, it's mostly accurate. The economy is still growing, just more slowly than forecast, wages are going up, they're just not keeping track with inflation currently, but inflation itself is still fairly modest.

Basically there's sufficient information to support whichever political drum you wish to bang, but it's only going to be time that acts as a final arbiter in most cases.

But I'm not entirely sure how deep one can go on the wider socio economic implications of Brexit before you're effectively off topic.

 JohnnyHell wrote:
For anyone not in the UK, the above post is more fantastical than space wizards firing mind bullets.

And anyway, the thread should be about the company that makes the space wizards.

Except you're forgetting people outside the UK can check it and realise it's not.

 JohnnyHell wrote:
Forums are so binary... it's not an either/or.

....

It's not one or the other, both are reasons for the upswing.

I think you'll struggle to find too many posts on the forum where people said it was entirely one or the other. Most people are saying it's obviously a bit of both and are just discussing the various implications, conditions and proportions.

Of course it wouldn't be hard to estimate if we just looked up the report and did some maths to figure it out, it's just most people are too lazy or don't have the free time.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Azreal13 wrote:
But I'm not entirely sure how deep one can go on the wider socio economic implications of Brexit before you're effectively off topic.

Well let me try. I think unless the economy goes completely tits up it's probably not going to have a massive influence on GW's sales volume. I think GW, being a relatively cheap hobby, is not going to feel the effects of minor fluctuations

Lets face it; clearly the change in the attitude and business and release practice of GW has resulted in a real world benefit in increased consumer loyalty; increased sales and increased open communication between GW and the customers.

However much or little the national and global economic changes have influenced this is up for debate; and chances are without pouring over a lot of numbers we'd not get anywhere near a sane opinion on the situation and its likely so complex that opinion is the best we'd get rather than straight fact.


As a result of this chances are GW will continue to act along these lines; its producing a marked increase in revenue for them and even if that's partly a false reading its still a gain and going to encourage them to continue to behave as they are starting too.

For us gamers this is a great thing; it means a company paying more attention to us; it means changes in release patterns for the better of the game; it means continued model support and new releases.

Yes 8th isn't perfect; but this is their first go at it. Plus we've not yet seen it finished with all codex released. Then again when 9th edition comes we''ll have another chance to see how they handle that. By that point new codex releases would make sense after all the FAQ and Errata updates plus new releases over the years. We could even see a time when GW doesn't wholesale change all of the core game between editions. 9th might build upon 8th much stronger.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
. I think GW, being a relatively cheap hobby, is not going to feel the effects of minor fluctuations

I've often heard it said that hobbies actually do well (comparatively speaking) during times of economic downturn as people seek more escapism. Warhammer likely easily fits into that bracket of being affordable (yes GW might not be the cheapest wargame, but its certanily cheaper than a lot of other hobbies)

 Overread wrote:
However much or little the national and global economic changes have influenced this is up for debate; and chances are without pouring over a lot of numbers we'd not get anywhere near a sane opinion on the situation and its likely so complex that opinion is the best we'd get rather than straight fact.

Actually I don't think it'd be all that hard to paint a relatively detailed picture, I just don't have the free time to look up their financial reports and try and break it down.

Because GW didn't change their pricing in their biggest markets, you don't have to make massive assumptions about changes in demand due to changes in pricing with changing exchange rate (except for FW, but I think they give enough of a breakdown to quantify that uncertainty).

 Overread wrote:
Lets face it; clearly the change in the attitude and business and release practice of GW has resulted in a real world benefit in increased consumer loyalty; increased sales and increased open communication between GW and the customers.

For us gamers this is a great thing; it means a company paying more attention to us; it means changes in release patterns for the better of the game; it means continued model support and new releases.

.... Yes 8th isn't perfect; but this is their first go at it. Plus we've not yet seen it finished with all codex released. Then again when 9th edition comes we''ll have another chance to see how they handle that. By that point new codex releases would make sense after all the FAQ and Errata updates plus new releases over the years. We could even see a time when GW doesn't wholesale change all of the core game between editions. 9th might build upon 8th much stronger.

To an extent, I suspect it has. I just think that at the minute people are overestimating how much of an impact this has actually had and as such are misleading themselves about how much GW has actually learnt/the extent to which they're putting their talk into practice.

The company I work for does an annual staff survey for example. I doubt anyone will be surprised to hear that each year this survey reports back that everything is brilliant and the staff all love the business and the way it operates and that everyone thinks senior management are doing a brilliant job, despite the fact you don't hear much of that from the actual staff. It's a survey in name only. In reality they probably look at the results once then chuck them in bin, not least because the same general complaints crop up each time and never get solved. There's a significant difference between actual change and presenting change.

Looking at some of the other threads for example I see lots of complaints that SM will effectively have gained three new codexes before some of the Xenos even have one. That's old school games workshop in action and doesn't strike me as a company that has learned much or thought much about the future. Of course we've seen complaints that such and such unit is underpowered/overpowered/unbalanced/undercosted/overcosted and all the usual, which in fairness would probably happen to some degree no matter how perfectly balanced the game was in reality because people like their factions and want them to do well, but the amount of complaining suggests that GW still has some room to grow when it comes to working out balance issues. I'm just not convinced personally that this is a major turning of a corner as much as it is switching lanes on the same highway. 9th edition will be interesting though, for example whether they address this issue around the order of codex releases.

Either way, cash wise they're in rude health and their business model is more resiliant than people think to downturns. Arguments about GW's business is never really about whether or not they'll make money, it's more about how much profit can they/will they/would they make.

Looking at some of the other threads for example I see lots of complaints that SM will effectively have gained three new codexes before some of the Xenos even have one. That's old school games workshop in action and doesn't strike me as a company that has learned much or thought much about the future.

But you have to factor in that Space Marines make an insane % of all GW's sales. So on that score it makes full sense that GW would support the larger portion of its buying market as early as possible.
It's a kind of self fullfilling issue in that Marines sell well so GW markets them more so they sell more so GW markets them more --

That said this round its far less of an issue than in the past. In the past armies went years or never got a new codex for some editions. This time we are looking at being completed early next year. By GW standards that's an insane speed of release; ontop of that the index, whilst not perfect, have done a big job of at least ensuring all armies are valid for 8th edition at a basic level.

I don't expect GW to respond to every user request or get it right every time, but I do think they are taking steps that many have wanted and have made some big changes to their release method and approach.

 JohnnyHell wrote:
Forums are so binary... it's not an either/or.

The Brexit effect is that sales they would have made anyway will have 100% definitely made them more money via currency exchange shenanigans. Weak pound = exports get you more money, and sales are more profitable. Of course they didn't pass that on to wholesalers/retailers and lower their prices! They kept it. No visible outward change + currency benefit = profit.

That they have delivered two revamped game systems, a bunch of splash releases and their best models for donkeys years in that time and driven sales up too is why the figures look so damn good.

It's not one or the other, both are reasons for the upswing.

yeah ,this was already explained before. The real profit is 38,3 (up from 16,9), while the profit in constant currency is 31,3 (up from 16,9 obviously). So, we can see that while the brexit had an effect, it clearly was not the main driver of the growth since it only contributed to about a 1/3 of the rise in profit (this is taking as an hypothesis that retailers and distributors outside the UK can't buy directly from GW UK).


Automatically Appended Next Post:

bouncingboredom wrote:

streetsamurai wrote:
GW
UK growth being weak after the Brexit compared to the other market probably is due to the difficult economic situation it caused in this country. Since GW stuff is pure hobby expense, it's pretty much the first thing that gets cut when the budget is a bit tighter

The UK is doing well. Being British we like to complain about everything, particularly first world problems; "Ugh, it's so expensive now to take the kids abroad during the school holidays". Poor didums. The reality is that GW has had a rough time in recent years. They're headed in a better direction lately, but there's still a long way to go to unwind some of the mistakes of the past.

Benn Roe wrote:
No, I'm a current retailer. I opened my shop in 2009. GW's prices in the US, both direct from them and from all other major distributors, have remained completely unchanged since their last big price hike back in 2012 or 2013 or so. Have you considered the possibility that Australia's growth was lower because by all accounts GW's prices over there are obscene, which limits growth potential, and that the UK's growth was lower because GW is much more of a household name over there, meaning a much higher percentage of the potential market is already tapped? Those seem like more plausible explanations to me, considering Brexit had zero effect on US prices at any level of the supply chain. I can't speak for the EU, though.

To put some perspective on how much the UK market still has left in it, when I first started playing 40K (2nd edition, aging myself a little) they used to run TV adverts, had distribution deals with major high street retailers, and gaming groups exclusive to GW products were everywhere with very solid numbers (our school, in a fairly small town 10 miles from the nearest GW store had 20 regulars at the group and a lot more people who played but didn't attend the group). Now they're running with one-man stores for the most part. They're a long way from their heyday, but with the right approach they could probably get back there.

Anyway, to the point. I did some very, very crude number crunching and by using what I think is a more realistic constant currency adjustor you get figures from the US and EU which are much more comparable with those from the rest of the world, still showing good growth in underlying sales (new stores, new products like AOS handbook, recovering from a rough year in 2015/16) but a little less hyperbolic shall we say. Smiles all round

Red_Five wrote:What is far more likely is that the management changes have pushed consumer confidence up. GW's core games are in a much healthier position today than they have been in probably 5 years or more. GW focusing on social media, GW focusing on sharing information, GW offering more bundles (with good discounts), GW releasing a more well rounded 40k game system, GW releasing lots of codexes, GW updating and FAQing on a consistent basis, etc. are all playing into this. GW has entered the 21st century and is embracing modernity. The buying public has very much rewarded GW for doing this.

I wouldn't hold your breath on that. I see a lot of peope grumbling already and it hasn't even been out that long. Any new release like this - especially of a game as important as 40K - is basically a license to print money. The volume orders from 3rd party retailers alone would have generated some healthy profits. Much hinges on where they go from here, in particular their strategy for retail outlets. It'll be an interesting next couple of years for sure.

the UK economy is not doing well, disposable income (probably the most important variable when it comes to hobby budget) supposedly have been falling for 19 successive quarters. Even if you want to contradict the veracity of most indicators, fact is, that at the very least, the perception is that the UK economy is not doing well, and that perception makes people a lot more reluctant to spend on luxury good.

Everything's fine!

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/30/britons-savings-at-record-low-as-household-incomes-drop-says-ons

 streetsamurai wrote:
the UK economy is not doing well, disposable income (probably the most important variable when it comes to hobby budget) supposedly have been falling for 19 successive quarters. Even if you want to contradict the veracity of most indicators, fact is, that at the very least, the perception is that the UK economy is not doing well, and that perception makes people a lot more reluctant to spend on luxury good.

I think it'll hit expensive luxury goods (TV's, high end computers, new cars, etc.) before it hits cheap hobby items like GW products.

The good thing about GW products in an economic crisis is they're a huge time sink for a relatively small money investment. While personally I think that's a horrible metric for hobby value, when purse strings start to tighten it's a good fall back hobby until you're so poor that you can only afford to stare at a wall.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 streetsamurai wrote:
the UK economy is not doing well, disposable income (probably the most important variable when it comes to hobby budget) supposedly have been falling for 19 successive quarters. Even if you want to contradict the veracity of most indicators, fact is, that at the very least, the perception is that the UK economy is not doing well, and that perception makes people a lot more reluctant to spend on luxury good.

I think it'll hit expensive luxury goods (TV's, high end computers, new cars, etc.) before it hits cheap hobby items like GW products.

The good thing about GW products in an economic crisis is they're a huge time sink for a relatively small money investment. While personally I think that's a horrible metric for hobby value, when purse strings start to tighten it's a good fall back hobby until you're so poor that you can only afford to stare at a wall.

high end computer and cars have value besise their hobby aspect, while gW mnis does not.

And I would say a 40k army is much more expensive than a tv. I seriously get gonfused when I hear people calling GW a cheap hobby

Need to compare it to sports and that.

Whilst we tend to keep on buying, the actual necessary cost to get established in GW games is pretty reasonable compared to many other hobbies.

of course you can always find more expensive ones, but compared to most other hobbies, GW is far from cheap

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 streetsamurai wrote:
the UK economy is not doing well, disposable income (probably the most important variable when it comes to hobby budget) supposedly have been falling for 19 successive quarters. Even if you want to contradict the veracity of most indicators, fact is, that at the very least, the perception is that the UK economy is not doing well, and that perception makes people a lot more reluctant to spend on luxury good.

I think it'll hit expensive luxury goods (TV's, high end computers, new cars, etc.) before it hits cheap hobby items like GW products.

The good thing about GW products in an economic crisis is they're a huge time sink for a relatively small money investment. While personally I think that's a horrible metric for hobby value, when purse strings start to tighten it's a good fall back hobby until you're so poor that you can only afford to stare at a wall.

It'll be a long time until I stare at a wall with my unpainted collection......

 streetsamurai wrote:
of course you can always find more expensive ones, but compared to most other hobbies, GW is far from cheap

£16 for a Blood bowl team? £20 for Necromunda? £14 for Shadespire?

let's not pretend that these are the bread and butter of GW (not to mention that Necro and Shadespire has nothing to do with the financial results we're discussing, since they were not even released at the time). ANd you for most (all) of these games, you also need to buy the main boxed set.

ANyway, no point in discussing this since it's obvious you're disingenuous

 streetsamurai wrote:
of course you can always find more expensive ones, but compared to most other hobbies, GW is far from cheap

I disagree. You can get a full GW army for less than £500 - if you plan your spending.

If you play a sport, you need your sportswear, which wears out. You also need a pitch or what have you to play on. Those aren't always free, and represent an on-going cost that Wargaming doesn't typically have.

To 'get better' at a Wargame, you might need a new unit or two, change up the dynamic of your army. To 'get better' at a sport? £200 on a pair of football boots. Oh, and super-duper-ultra-light-weight shin pads - those'll be a bit more cash.

Now, that's not to say GW games are cheap - £500 remains £500. But compared to a lot of other stuff, especially when you take into account it's rare any army can't still be used three or four years later?

I don't agree.
Most sport I've done (boxing, weightlifting, wrestling, soccer) cost me a lot less annually than what I spend on GW games (hell with the current price of GW mini, adding an unit or two might well cost you 200 pounds :lol

Anyway, we're getting off topic, but let's just agree that a game that need an initial investment of pretty much a 1000$ is not exactly cheap

Most hobbies scale in price. You can be into football for the cost of a football from the toy store or you can spend a small fortune.

Which is how it can get complicated comparing because its so easy to be arguing with multiple different impressions on "how much" it takes to take part.

 streetsamurai wrote:
let's not pretend that these are the bread and butter of GW (not to mention that Necro and Shadespire has nothing to do with the financial results we're discussing, since they were not even released at the time). ANd you for most (all) of these games, you also need to buy the main boxed set.

ANyway, no point in discussing this since it's obvious you're disingenuous

Not disingenuous at all. We're talking about if GW can be a cheap hobby. I've listed the cheap options available.

I'm not talking about this report or anything else - you said you were confused when people said it could be cheap. Those are 3 games where it's very cheap.

A £40 get started box would keep me busy painting for hours and hours - obviously need paints on top of that.

A £60 - £70 board game is self contained hours of fun. That's what Warhammer quest games were right?

As someone with 0 completed 40k/AoS armies I can tell you there are lots of ways to spend with GW that doesn't involve hundreds going on a playable army.

yeah, and collecting luxury car can be cheap too, if you steal them. But, as for your example, it is not what people have in mind when they talk about this hobby

Ah, yeah, if we discount all the cheap ways you can participate in the hobby then it is an expensive hobby.

Overread wrote:
But you have to factor in that Space Marines make an insane % of all GW's sales. So on that score it makes full sense that GW would support the larger portion of its buying market as early as possible.
It's a kind of self fullfilling issue in that Marines sell well so GW markets them more so they sell more so GW markets them more

True, they're a huge deal. They could still have released the basic SM codex first, hammered through the Xenos, then started on the BA etc. That way the marine players have something basic to work with, then get their fancy stuff later. It's certainly an improvement that some factions won't have to wait 2+ years to get their books for a change. I do wonder though if GW is aware of the kind of self-fulfilling nature of not giving codex releases to an army sooner? It happened with WFB as I understand it, where certain factions that were left in the cold for multiple editions saw their sales plummet, so GW waited even longer to give them books and the cycle continued....

streetsamurai wrote: the UK economy is not doing well, disposable income (probably the most important variable when it comes to hobby budget) supposedly have been falling for 19 successive quarters. Even if you want to contradict the veracity of most indicators, fact is, that at the very least, the perception is that the UK economy is not doing well, and that perception makes people a lot more reluctant to spend on luxury good.

I live in the UK. Trust me, the economy is doing well. Is it doing brilliant? No. Could it be better? Absolutely. Are the politicians helping? No, they never do. But things are solid. The economy is growing. Unemployment is at a record low level. Today at work we hit our sales target for the week, with two days left. That's something like 40 weeks in a row that we've consistently beaten the target (based off last years sales). You can see lots of people out and about, spending money. To be frank, this country has become quite entitled in many ways. People moan because they're stuck with a 42" TV instead of a 60". They moan because their phone bill is a few pounds more expensive per month, never stopping to consider that maybe they don't need an auto-upgrade every 12 months to the latest generation iPhone, with 4G and x number of roving data. Yet everyone keeps spending.

Vorian wrote:Everything's fine!

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/30/britons-savings-at-record-low-as-household-incomes-drop-says-ons

The amusing thing about this is I mentioned the Guardian newspaper as one that has a specific and quite vitriolic agenda, and then you dropped that also note that this article was warning about slowing growth, then the next quarter growth increased...

streetsamurai wrote: And I would say a 40k army is much more expensive than a tv. I seriously get gonfused when I hear people calling GW a cheap hobby

Depends what TV you're buying GW is a relatively cheap hobby considering how much it costs vs the time you get out of it. Consider that tickets to a Prem football match now are often the cost of a starting boxed set. I paid over £100 each time, including travel and food, to go and watch the NFL at Wembley. That's for what, 3 hours of entertainment? How much did some people pay to watch the Mayweather/McGregor fight? Look at how much a set of golf clubs costs. Or a "day" of paintballing. Go Kart racing. Think how much people spend on just a round of drinks at the pub, sometimes several nights per week. In the grand scheme of things GW is not super expensive.

Another advantage for GW is that a lot of their customers essentially have complete disposable income. Teenagers don't pay heating bills or the weekly shop. Most of them can't even be coaxed into buying deoderant. They will however fork out £40 on a fairly routine basis for the latest video game they've spotted. The entry cost of GW games might seem high, but again, how much does an Xbox or Playstation cost new? Not saying that GW couldn't do with dropping their prices a little, but it's not super expensive for anyone with even a modest income (talking minimum wage, full time) and who knows how to look after their cash a little.

Won't try to pass as a specialist in the economic health of the UK, but unemployement rate is one of the worst indicator to use. It doesn't accout for the people who stop actively looking for a job (in period of recession, a lot of people simply quit the labor force), nor those it account for the quality of the jobs created.

Disposable income is a much more meaningful indicator imo.

 streetsamurai wrote:
Won't try to pass as a specialist in the economic health of the UK, but unemployement rate is one of the worst indicator to use. It doesn't accout for the people who stop actively looking for a job (in period of recession, a lot of people simply quit the labor force), nor those it account for the quality of the jobs created.

Disposable income is a much more meaningful indicator imo.

Then you'll be pleased to know that the number and level of active participants in the economy are also at a record high levels.

bouncingboredom wrote:

 streetsamurai wrote:
Won't try to pass as a specialist in the economic health of the UK, but unemployement rate is one of the worst indicator to use. It doesn't accout for the people who stop actively looking for a job (in period of recession, a lot of people simply quit the labor force), nor those it account for the quality of the jobs created.

Disposable income is a much more meaningful indicator imo.

Then you'll be pleased to know that the number and level of active participants in the economy are also at a record high levels.

You know the amount of activity an individual has to do to count as being an active participant in the economy?

1 hour of unpaid work.

That’s why the government can claim we have record levels of employment, while at the same time we see food bank usage surge exponentially, homelessness double, child poverty going up and up, and productivity in the toilet.

This isn't even controversial, all indicators show our economy is doing badly - compared to the global picture (which is bad itself).

There are lots of independent reports that will explain how assets are overvalued, real incomes are declining, child poverty is increasing, productivity is terrible, growth forecast went off a cliff after Brexit, private pensions had 40% of their value taken by QE, austerity is causing deaths, etc

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Need to compare it to sports and that.

Whilst we tend to keep on buying, the actual necessary cost to get established in GW games is pretty reasonable compared to many other hobbies.

A 1500 point army bought direct from GW costs about the same as a mid-high range gaming pc depending on the army in question. Considering how many people consider that an extravagant hobby compared to say consoles, and I think it's pretty clear this isn't a hobby anyone can easily enter on a whim.

Specialists games have a lower barrier to entry, but that actually circles back around to reinstating specialists games being a smart move that let GW take less impact from an economic downturn resulting in less disposable income. Buying an army second hand is also cheaper, but wouldn't factor into GW financials except in by taking away sales as people turned towards being used due to tighter budgets (not to mention more people selling them off as they need cash).

General Kroll wrote:
You know the amount of activity an individual has to do to count as being an active participant in the economy?

1 hour of unpaid work.

That’s why the government can claim we have record levels of employment, while at the same time we see food bank usage surge exponentially, homelessness double, child poverty going up and up, and productivity in the toilet.

No, we're talking about people that are in paid employment, or who work unpaid in a family business and are considered to derive a benefit from doing so (i.e. a teenager living with their parents and working for them). Meanwhile the PMI (purchasing managers index - a survey of business confidence) has consistently been higher this year than the same point in the previous year. The PMI of manufacturers (no idea if GW is on that list btw) hit a 5 year high in november, driven by quarterly growth of 2% in the sector. Manufacturing orders for UK firms are at their highest rate since 1988.

As for food banks, one of my sisters is a single mum, three kids, low income. Times she's had to use a food bank = 0. Why? Because she works hard and she spends smart. Still able to afford a number of what we might call luxury items. There's some people out there who desperately need the help provided by food banks. The trouble is they're being stigmatised because there's also a hell of a lot of scummy people out there using them who don't need to, but are taking advantage of the free goodies. Homelessness and child poverty are also two factors which are well known for having poor causation with wider economic health. Lot of homeless people living in countries that are doing fantastically economically and in cities that are wealthy.

Vorian wrote:This isn't even controversial, all indicators show our economy is doing badly - compared to the global picture (which is bad itself). There are lots of independent reports that will explain how assets are overvalued, real incomes are declining, child poverty is increasing, productivity is terrible, growth forecast went off a cliff after Brexit, private pensions had 40% of their value taken by QE, austerity is causing deaths, etc

Except our economy is growing. Could it grow faster? Yep. But to say it's doing badly is ridiculous. As was explained earlier, our real incomes have been tremendous over the last few years as we've enjoyed above inflation pay rises each year in the private sector and very low inflation, inflation that at one point was so critically low that the economy almost went into deflation (ask someone from Japan how bad that is...). Now that it's starting to nudge back the other way some people are having a fit because they can't have their cake and eat it any more.

And judging by your last comment about austerity, I'm guessing your a labour voter? In which case, I get that you might not like the tory government. There's not a lot to like about them, they're something of a shower, especially lately. But as angry as you might be about them, you can't seriously argue that the economy is doing badly. Economies in recession are doing badly. Economies that are crawling along with virtually no annual growth are doing badly. Economies that are growing like ours are doing good. Yes it could do better, but if you think our annual growth is "bad", "terrible", or any similar negative then frankly you need to get real. It's like a spoiled child complaining that their pocket money is only going up by 1.5% instead of the 1.7 they'd hoped for. Take the pocket money away and they'd soon see what "bad" looks like.

SilverAlien wrote:A 1500 point army bought direct from GW costs about the same as a mid-high range gaming pc depending on the army in question.

How much is a brand new console now, especially at release? New PS4 with one game seems to come in at over £200. You can get a decent amount of GW product for that price.

And any of that is on topic... how?

Thanks for clearing up that only scummy people use foodbanks.

Wow, this is really running off the rails.

Either talk about GeeDub's stock performance or go argue economics in the OT Forum.

A choose your poison situation if I've ever seen it.

Lorek wrote:Wow, this is really running off the rails.

Either talk about GeeDub's stock performance or go argue economics in the OT Forum.

I assumed we were trying to establish the approximate baseline state of the UK economy, along with the general affordability of GW miniatures, as these two factors will (along with others) have a big impact on GW sales and as such their stock value?

My argument is that the UK economy is doing ok and that chatter about its imminent demise is mainly driven by people with agendas, predominantly political, and not a rational analysis of the actual state of the economy (which sums up the problem with economics in a nutshell), and as such we should expect decent christmas sales by GW here in the UK. The two factors that might work against them that I'd be more worried about if I was GW would be the reaction to the new Chapter Approved book, which might turn some people off spending until their codex arrives next year, and the fact that it's probably going to be quite a snowy christmas period (starting now) which could hurt retail sales tremendously (for those that don't know, UK infrastructure copes about as well with snow as flak armour does with lascannon hits, though it has been getting a bit better in recent years).

GW stock price already seems to have past its zenith for the year, but the half year figures come out in early January so they shouldn't drop off too far. It will be interesting to watch the price movement till then because it could give us clues about how investors rate the risk of reduced sales due to the wintery weather.

JohnnyHell wrote:And any of that is on topic... how? Thanks for clearing up that only scummy people use foodbanks.

Someone raised those issues as economic indicators, so surely it's correct to assess and respond? I'm also pretty sure I didn't say what your claiming. Let's have a look; "There's some people out there who desperately need the help provided by food banks. The trouble is they're being stigmatised because there's also a hell of a lot of scummy people out there using them who don't need to, but are taking advantage of the free goodies". Emphasis added.

Just recently started posting and already defying a mod warning. You'll fit in just fine around here, bb.

Lol, thanks, but I'm confused now. I thought I had addressed the MOD's specific concern?

It doesn't look like it:

 Lorek wrote:
Wow, this is really running off the rails.

Either talk about GeeDub's stock performance or go argue economics in the OT Forum.

 Alpharius wrote:
It doesn't look like it:

 Lorek wrote:
Wow, this is really running off the rails.

Either talk about GeeDub's stock performance or go argue economics in the OT Forum.

So we aren't allowed to argue economics that directly affect GW's stock price, even if we link it back to GW's stock price directly? You guys don't make it easy sometimes I was trying my best to avoid going off on economic tangents that I didn't intend to directly link back to GW's financial health.

This is what happens when you release new material for almost all the armies in a single year. Whats going to happen afterward is my question.

They have been great with branching out the IP into computer games. Black library expanding the footprint, especially with the Horus Heresy. The next best thing they can do to expand the brand would be an actual movie/TV show. But it would need to be done right, with a hollywood budget.

Not likely to happen anytime soon, but I think its something we will see within the decade. The advancement of computer technology for movies these days is crazy good. (look at Star Wars, GoT, etc...)

 Dynas wrote:
This is what happens when you release new material for almost all the armies in a single year. Whats going to happen afterward is my question.

They have been great with branching out the IP into computer games. Black library expanding the footprint, especially with the Horus Heresy. The next best thing they can do to expand the brand would be an actual movie/TV show. But it would need to be done right, with a hollywood budget.

Not likely to happen anytime soon, but I think its something we will see within the decade. The advancement of computer technology for movies these days is crazy good. (look at Star Wars, GoT, etc...)

Ultramarines The Movie 2, coming... well, never.

 Dynas wrote:
The next best thing they can do to expand the brand would be an actual movie/TV show. But it would need to be done right, with a hollywood budget.

Not likely to happen anytime soon, but I think its something we will see within the decade. The advancement of computer technology for movies these days is crazy good. (look at Star Wars, GoT, etc...)

With the long list of people who are suspected/confirmed as being 40k players, we have a group of actors (and others) who might be up for that straight away. Pay them in GW shares, and they'll be laughing... for a while.

Thing is GW can easily branch out into games because they've not actually got to spend anything. If the computer game fails it has little to no impact on GW model sales; if the game succeeds it boosts GW model sales; and either way they get paid in royalties.

It's low risk, high potential reward.

Plus many of the companies they've signed are either like Relic or CA in that they are already a big name and generally are geeks who want to tell the story without GW having to go nuts controlling their IP/Lore; or they are very small companies that wouldn't push their head up too far changing things.




A movie is a different kettle of fish. First off if GW wants it done right then its a huge cost to invest in and most directors/studios would want to control the movie directly. GW would lose out on controlling their lore and IP very quickly (plus we've seen the mess that Marvel/DC got into with the studios basically forcing them to have to re-write new comic heroes to regain copyright control over them).
If GW went with a smaller studio then we end up with something like their last film they made - lore control but far lower production values and market penetration (to the point where many in this thread already forgot that the movie existed!). Plus smaller group means more chance that GW has to foot a bigger chunk of the production bill - more risk - far less potential reward.


There's also not many directors who I'd consider GW friendly from a lore/asthetics point of view. Honestly I'd say if they could get Tarantino as the director it would be a great match. But I still don't see it happening.

Movie is unlikely to happen.

For a start, it's got The Dredd Concern. The setting itself is, and has always been, hyperviolent.

Consider what would happen on-screen to someone hit by a Bolt Round. Or taken down by a Chainsword.

Without utterly gutting the setting, you're looking at an R rating. Whilst perhaps not as toxic as once perceived, that's still limiting not only your target audience, but the merchandising opportunities.

And GW have, traditionally, always wanted to retain control over the merchandising rights (so no McHorus with Emperor fries type 'tie-ins'). That's a bit hurdle for any studio, as the sales of tie-in stuff can make movies far more profitable, as you're not relying solely on box office and home sales.

Expansion is not always the best solution, that is why earth is fethed. GW is a micro cosmos of this, they need to step back and the players need to stop be like little chicks in the bird nest sitting there with their mouths open and screaming. Of course Its too late for this since GW is run by a bunch of money hungry share holders.

Is there any way to go back to be a private company without going bankrupt? Is it possible to pay of all the share holders and become private again?

FudgeDumper wrote:
Expansion is not always the best solution, that is why earth is fethed. GW is a micro cosmos of this, they need to step back and the players need to stop be like little chicks in the bird nest sitting there with their mouths open and screaming. Of course Its too late for this since GW is run by a bunch of money hungry share holders.

Is there any way to go back to be a private company without going bankrupt? Is it possible to pay of all the share holders and become private again?

This is technically possible, but it's absurdly unlikely for multiple reasons and isn't in anyone's interest really so I have no idea why you'd even be hoping for this. It's not like a privately owned business suddenly doesn't care about profitability. It's a company, if it isn't looking to maximize it's going to struggle to expand. You want more models, specialist games, codices, campaigns, etc without compromising quality? Profit goes back into the company to expand these. The fact GW is able to do a major production overhaul/expansion this year is due to their success. The incompetence and shortsightedness of the previous management isn't a symptom of being publicly traded.

Also, I'd argue any revenue stream GW can draw from without investing into will improve or enjoyment of their tabletop product, as they have more overall resources to work with. Video games, comics, novels or whatever all help improve the original games. Well... actually black library is owned by GW directly so that's a bit more ambiguous, but it stands for the other two.

Don't worry. He's just trying to be agent provocateur again and failing.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Don't worry. He's just trying to be agent provocateur again and failing.

118 posts trying to annoy people on a toy soldiers forum

Thebiggesthat wrote:

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Don't worry. He's just trying to be agent provocateur again and failing.

118 posts trying to annoy people on a toy soldiers forum

Plus a few deleted ones...

Yet I was subject to a ban because a famous Irish saying wasn't known by a moderator

Anyway, back on topic...

I am really interested where the company goes now. They are at the limits of production, and have recently demonstrated that they have no problem with investing in additional production facilities (buying a dice production outlet after customer backlash). I would assume the purchase of equipment to produce more sprues are thundering along, and they are employing more design artists.

These are all things that give an investor a warm fuzzy feeling. None of the investment is particularly risky, it's all geared to produce more product and therefore profit.

Indeed.

Even if demand drops off, having a 'spare' machine likely ensures productivity isn't hampered by routine or emergency maintenance/repairs.

And crucially from an investor's point of view, it's all being done with cash in hand, rather than through borrowing. See, it's when expansion is highly geared that things can go easily wrong, leading to the loans being called in, and thus bankruptcy.

Well done, new GW management. It's almost as if listening to the customer, is a good thing.

Only when ultimately filtered through professionals!

 Skinnereal wrote:

 Dynas wrote:
The next best thing they can do to expand the brand would be an actual movie/TV show. But it would need to be done right, with a hollywood budget.

Not likely to happen anytime soon, but I think its something we will see within the decade. The advancement of computer technology for movies these days is crazy good. (look at Star Wars, GoT, etc...)

With the long list of people who are suspected/confirmed as being 40k players, we have a group of actors (and others) who might be up for that straight away. Pay them in GW shares, and they'll be laughing... for a while.

The only one I can think of is Robin Williams. Who else is on the list?

Vin Diesel was one fella I seem to remember? Brian May too...

Pretty sure the Brian May thing stems from a 90's WD which showed him and his kids being shown round the studio, and it was his kids that were into it?

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Pretty sure the Brian May thing stems from a 90's WD which showed him and his kids being shown round the studio, and it was his kids that were into it?

Sounds about right. He did a few stints with D'Rok didn't he?

Also, it's rumoured the the late Christopher Lee war gamed. Not sure what with though. Insert jokes about playing Undead and Vampire Counts below...

Lol, I’d forgotten about D’Rok

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Movie is unlikely to happen.

For a start, it's got The Dredd Concern. The setting itself is, and has always been, hyperviolent.

Consider what would happen on-screen to someone hit by a Bolt Round. Or taken down by a Chainsword.

Without utterly gutting the setting, you're looking at an R rating. Whilst perhaps not as toxic as once perceived, that's still limiting not only your target audience, but the merchandising opportunities.

And GW have, traditionally, always wanted to retain control over the merchandising rights (so no McHorus with Emperor fries type 'tie-ins'). That's a bit hurdle for any studio, as the sales of tie-in stuff can make movies far more profitable, as you're not relying solely on box office and home sales.

It would definitely need to be R. Look at something Like Judge Dread meets star wars, with a splash of starship troopers or terminator or warcraft (depending on who the bad faction would be.)

Fudge you do seriously sound like you need help. Assuming you're not just trolling for kicks and laughs you sound like you really need to get some support in life

Self help groups or the like might be worth looking into for giving you some support. Heck just getting a new hobby or walking or exercise could be a big help to you.

Lists of celebrity games:
https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/30/742534.page#top
https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/257967.page#top

 Overread wrote:
Fudge you do seriously sound like you need help. Assuming you're not just trolling for kicks and laughs you sound like you really need to get some support in life

Self help groups or the like might be worth looking into for giving you some support. Heck just getting a new hobby or walking or exercise could be a big help to you.

Yeah he's been at this for a while. https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/737118.page#9566165

Or nobody else actually cares, having far better things to concern themselves with?

I mean, it's not like GW are on the Nestle scale of evil. Not even close.

FudgeDumper wrote:

 Overread wrote:
Fudge you do seriously sound like you need help. Assuming you're not just trolling for kicks and laughs you sound like you really need to get some support in life

Self help groups or the like might be worth looking into for giving you some support. Heck just getting a new hobby or walking or exercise could be a big help to you.

Thanks for your concerns but I am perfectly insane and i walk and exercise regularly. I might be too sane since it seem I'm the only one who can discern the big companies foul play (or maybe the only one who dare to point them out?).

Now there's a Freudian slip if ever I saw one. But you keep that tinfoil hat on that you've got.

 ZebioLizard2 wrote:

 Overread wrote:
Fudge you do seriously sound like you need help. Assuming you're not just trolling for kicks and laughs you sound like you really need to get some support in life

Self help groups or the like might be worth looking into for giving you some support. Heck just getting a new hobby or walking or exercise could be a big help to you.

Yeah he's been at this for a while. https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/737118.page#9566165

My personal fav:

https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/746175.page

Also :

https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/739530.page

Don't feed the troll.


ta.