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Post by: Mymearan
https://www.google.se/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/806bcc35-ceb2-3c31-915f-1ed63a2bd5d8
Little figurines, big investment gains.
Games Workshop, the best performing stock this year on the London market, said its revenues and earnings climbed significantly over the past six months.
The group, known for its table games based around characters with names like Gutrot Spume and Festus the Leechlord, said in a trading update that preliminary estimates point to sales of £109m in the half-year to November 26, up 53.7 per cent over the same period in the previous year. Operating profits climbed at a more rapid rate to £38m from £13.8m.
Games Workshop, founded over 30 years ago, makes miniature figurine armies that are used in intricate fantasy games, like Warhammer 40,000 and one based on The Hobbit. Players spend time customising their models — such as tanks and various creatures — by painting them and swapping out their bases. (“True mastery” of the art, “takes time and dedication”, the company says.)
The group’s shares have soared 174.4 per cent since the end of last year, making Games Workshop by far the best-performing stock on the FTSE All-Share index, according to FactSet data.
Games Workshop is based in the UK, but 70 per cent of direct sales are generated overseas from countries such as the US, Australia, China and Japan, helping to buffer its exposure to British economic tumult.
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Post by: Lythrandire Biehrellian
Good for them! Who would have thought interaction with the community and attempting to make the game more user friendly would have had a positive impact...
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Post by: Skinnereal
I hope someone is rubbing this in the face of the old top managers.
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Post by: Baron Klatz
Awesome job, GW!
Keep up the great work and may the good times never end!
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Post by: Overread
I just hope GW can keep up and then easily settle back when things slow down a bit (as with most things they will slow down after a while). Certainly this last year to half a year has been a massive change for them and a huge boost!
It's also really great to see them adopting changes the community, at large, wanted and seeing a positive reaction in terms of increased revenue and value of the company. Ergo its a win-win where customer and company are both benefiting.
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Post by: H.B.M.C.
Let's all celebrate with an across-the-board price rise!
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Post by: Inquisitor Gideon
Only for New Zealand however. I do however wish I had pulled the trigger on picking up a few hundred shares a few years back. Oh well, that's the stock market for you.
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Post by: Lord Kragan
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Post by: ERJAK
2 things:
1. It's hilarious everytime someone outside the hobby tries to describe it.
2. HOLY MOTHER OF GOD. This pretty much has to end up in every major business textbook for the next 50 years right? 174.4% increase in share price, 50% increase in sales, operating profit tripled?
People are really heavily focusing on what this means for GW going forward but I think it's actually going to be much more valuable as a case study on the effects of consumer engagement.
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Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik
Here's hoping we're not seeing a localised boom and bust!
They're definitely doing the right thing at the right time. But man, I don't want to see a bubble burst here. That'd be rubbish!
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Post by: ingtaer
Inquisitor Gideon wrote:Only for New Zealand however. I do however wish I had pulled the trigger on picking up a few hundred shares a few years back. Oh well, that's the stock market for you.
You people are so mean.
It is good to see that GWs new policies are paying off so well.
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Post by: alphaecho
Ironically, unless they sold off their interests in GW, the old management that put the company close to being in trouble will be doing quite well from the new approach.
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Post by: Inquisitor Gideon
Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:Here's hoping we're not seeing a localised boom and bust!
They're definitely doing the right thing at the right time. But man, I don't want to see a bubble burst here. That'd be rubbish!
It'll burst eventually. You can't always keep going up without a little bit of down. The test will be how they've planned for when a down happens and how to turn it around again.
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Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik
There's a burst, and there's a planned for and managed decline.
Given the exponential growth here, only a fool would think that sustainable. Indeed, GW have said as much in their own reports.
Proof of the pudding will be when things start to settle down. That doesn't mean sales drop off, just growth levelling off - two different things!
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Post by: Baron Klatz
I'm confident they'll make a controlled glide. This boom has been by them getting their act together and putting in the hard work to earn it. That all pays off in the long run better than any shiny new releases could.
alphaecho wrote:
Ironically, unless they sold off their interests in GW, the old management that put the company close to being in trouble will be doing quite well from the new approach.
There's no rest for the wicked, only riches.
Also yes, people describing this hobby from the outside is nothing short of hilarious.
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Post by: Vorian
I wouldn't describe it as a boom. More the end of artificial suppression through incompetence.
Obviously the huge growth won't continue forever but it should stabalize at the kind of levels it should have been all along. Hopefully with sustainable growth (which would be much lower than we are seeing).
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Post by: Hollow
Great news considering the company is filled with 'incompetent idiots who don't know how to make a game'.
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Post by: jtrowell
ERJAK wrote:2 things:
1. It's hilarious everytime someone outside the hobby tries to describe it.
2. HOLY MOTHER OF GOD. This pretty much has to end up in every major business textbook for the next 50 years right? 174.4% increase in share price, 50% increase in sales, operating profit tripled?
People are really heavily focusing on what this means for GW going forward but I think it's actually going to be much more valuable as a case study on the effects of consumer engagement.
Don't forget that this is relative to their last year.
They did get a very good year, but they also did a lot of things wrong before, so part of the increase is just them finally leaving the hole they had been digging under their own feet.
Not that they are perfect nor do I expect them to sustain the increase, but it means that they are at least on the right track ... or at least that they stopped moving backwards .
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Post by: RiTides
Good job GW! I know I personally have begun supporting them again, as has my gaming group. Great to see them turn around and begin giving customers what they want
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Post by: Galas
I just hope this don't become another LOTR bubble!
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Post by: Desubot
Nice but yeah hope they dont go overboard with success.
reminds me about that extra credits vid about how well there IP shotgun tactic is working out for the video game side.
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Post by: Geifer
Galas wrote:I just hope this don't become another LOTR bubble!
It'll level out for certain, but unlike the Lord of the Rings that was tied to the movies (and GW made some dodgy decisions along the way like halving box content) 40k and Age of Sigmar are their core business, so the larger part of people buying from them should be on board with what GW are doing with the systems right now. 8th ed and Age of Sigmar with simple core rules and cheaper bundles were introduced to get more customers, and since they are basically new systems and settings one would assume that GW found a large enough audience that supports their current approach.
I don't see much of a bubble character to this upswing,
Edited to elevate the post slightly above monkey with typewriter level...
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Post by: Hragged
That's why you communicate with your customers.
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Post by: Symbio Joe
They probably have soooo many loses because of Brexit they have to compensate for. I'm rakeing in some models before that dumpsterfire is extinguished.
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Post by: streetsamurai
GW was so badly run under Kirby, it's a miracle that it survived (well, it only survived cause peeple really liked the IP). While current GW is far from perfect, the improvements are stagerring. But to be honest, a lot of the growth is without a doubt due to 8th edition (IIRC, pretty much every new 40k edition is accompanied by a large growth in sales), so it's not sustainable in the middle term nor long term.
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Post by: AdmiralHalsey
Ouch. Now they'll never regret that terrible 8th edition rules set...
30 million of operating profit is a lot of money to reinvest in the business, though. Maybe some new plastics... Maybe Sisters, huh, GW? Maybe Plastic Aspects? You can't tell us you can't afford it now...
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Post by: Ghaz
AdmiralHalsey wrote:Ouch. Now they'll never regret that terrible 8th edition rules set...
30 million of operating profit is a lot of money to reinvest in the business, though. Maybe some new plastics... Maybe Sisters, huh, GW? Maybe Plastic Aspects? You can't tell us you can't afford it now...
GW needs to invest in the capacity to produce more plastic kits first.
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Post by: Daedalus81
Something something silent majority. At least your free to maintain your crummy opinion.
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Post by: AdmiralHalsey
Ghaz wrote:AdmiralHalsey wrote:Ouch. Now they'll never regret that terrible 8th edition rules set...
30 million of operating profit is a lot of money to reinvest in the business, though. Maybe some new plastics... Maybe Sisters, huh, GW? Maybe Plastic Aspects? You can't tell us you can't afford it now...
GW needs to invest in the capacity to produce more plastic kits first.
They've got to invest that 30million in some-
Oh right. More Space Marines. How silly of me.
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Post by: Commissar Benny
Lets hope this translates to more models for all armies. Many armies are still using miniatures from like 2000-2001.
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Post by: Ghaz
AdmiralHalsey wrote: Ghaz wrote:AdmiralHalsey wrote:Ouch. Now they'll never regret that terrible 8th edition rules set... 30 million of operating profit is a lot of money to reinvest in the business, though. Maybe some new plastics... Maybe Sisters, huh, GW? Maybe Plastic Aspects? You can't tell us you can't afford it now... GW needs to invest in the capacity to produce more plastic kits first. They've got to invest that 30million in some- Oh right. More Space Marines. How silly of me.
No, they have to invest it in getting all of the 'Temporarily Out of Stock' product back in stock i.e., the equipment and infrastructure to make (produce) more plastic kits.
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Post by: Overread
Ghaz wrote:AdmiralHalsey wrote: Ghaz wrote:AdmiralHalsey wrote:Ouch. Now they'll never regret that terrible 8th edition rules set...
30 million of operating profit is a lot of money to reinvest in the business, though. Maybe some new plastics... Maybe Sisters, huh, GW? Maybe Plastic Aspects? You can't tell us you can't afford it now...
GW needs to invest in the capacity to produce more plastic kits first.
They've got to invest that 30million in some-
Oh right. More Space Marines. How silly of me.
No, they have to invest it in getting all of the 'Temporarily Out of Stock' product back in stock i.e., the equipment and infrastructure to make (produce) more plastic kits.
Yes and No
On the one hand lets not forget one factory is underpowered at present so their production is hindered a little.
Also machines, factories and infrastructure are expensive as GW keeps things in-house in the UK. So I do agree they will want to expand, but they shouldn't expand too fast; otherwise they could expand to fill the gap now and then find in another 6 months the demand eases off past the peek of new codex releases; leaving them with too much production capacity.
Granted machines can be sold on or left unused; rented properties though and extra staff are a continual drain and both can be less easily quickly dropped unless organised under short term initially (plus if you've rented and spend money putting in the infrastructure the last thing you want is to abandon it all)
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Post by: Ghaz
I agree they shouldn't expand too fast, but taking care of their production problems should be their first priority.
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Post by: OrlandotheTechnicoloured
They (reportedly) need to buy a big bucket of electricity and some thick wires to run all of their casting machines at once, and hopefully a few more new machines too so they can do more slide tools at least for the larger kits
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Post by: Earth127
They're on it?????
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Post by: judgedoug
I think they did already? That terrible awful gakky 8th edition was canned - and then they released Age of Sigmar.
And Warhammer 40k is better than it's ever been
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Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik
I’d like to see them bring all the scenery in house.
What they make looks lovely. Some of the outsourced kits though? Absolute pain the backside.
I mean, not by general modelling standards as things go, but compared to the rest of their range there just seems little excuse.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
judgedoug wrote:
I think they did already? That terrible awful gakky 8th edition was canned - and then they released Age of Sigmar.
And Warhammer 40k is better than it's ever been
Fight fight fight fight fight!
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Post by: Davor
Lythrandire Biehrellian wrote:Who would have thought interaction with the community and attempting to make the game more user friendly would have had a positive impact...
Looks like Kevin Roundtree knew.
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Post by: Hulksmash
jtrowell wrote:ERJAK wrote:2 things: 1. It's hilarious everytime someone outside the hobby tries to describe it. 2. HOLY MOTHER OF GOD. This pretty much has to end up in every major business textbook for the next 50 years right? 174.4% increase in share price, 50% increase in sales, operating profit tripled? People are really heavily focusing on what this means for GW going forward but I think it's actually going to be much more valuable as a case study on the effects of consumer engagement. Don't forget that this is relative to their last year. Which was a banger too in a year leading up to the launch of a new edition of their flagship game. They're set to make as much money in 8 months as they made on an excellent last year. That's impressive no matter how you cut it.
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Post by: Tamereth
The best thing to happen to GW was something they had nothing to do with, and that was the fall in valve of the pound.
GW sell a lot of stuff abroad, and almost over night all of those sales were worth 1.5 times more to them.
So don't go congratulating them too much. Hopefully if they invest this profit boost correctly it will mean good things for the future, but they may just pay out a big dividend to their most important people, I.e. Their shareholders, cuz that's how plc companies operate.
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Post by: Imateria
Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:I’d like to see them bring all the scenery in house.
What they make looks lovely. Some of the outsourced kits though? Absolute pain the backside.
I mean, not by general modelling standards as things go, but compared to the rest of their range there just seems little excuse.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
judgedoug wrote:
I think they did already? That terrible awful gakky 8th edition was canned - and then they released Age of Sigmar.
And Warhammer 40k is better than it's ever been
Fight fight fight fight fight!
What on earth's a Pagga?
And completely agree on the terrain, the Deathworld Terrain looks amazing but was a right pain in the backside to put together due to shoddy quality Chinese plastic.
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Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik
Pagga, noun.
A free for all fight between anyone who wants to join in.
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Post by: Turnip Jedi
like an intertubes gaming forum then ?
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Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik
I guess, more or less!
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Post by: stratigo
Symbio Joe wrote:
They probably have soooo many loses because of Brexit they have to compensate for. I'm rakeing in some models before that dumpsterfire is extinguished.
Brexit is actually a boon for a company making tangible goods like GW. It suppresses prices and makes their products more competitive on a world market (Also they can pay their employees relatively less). Brexit's problems come from the reality that the UK isn't a manufacturing economy, and literally every other industry hurts from it.
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Post by: Lord Kragan
Only with more blood and civilized behavior.
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Post by: Ruin
Hollow wrote:Great news considering the company is filled with 'incompetent idiots who don't know how to make a game'.
These two things are not mutually exclusive you know...
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Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik
Yes. Because £38,000,000 profit in six months is the hallmark of all poorly run businesses.
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Post by: Carlovonsexron
I have to admit a morebid fascination with hiw thisbsill compare to how privateerpress is doing.
I'm not a PP hater, and I think there is more than enough room in the ecosystem for both...
But at the same time, suck it PP
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Post by: Tonhel
Carlovonsexron wrote:I have to admit a morebid fascination with hiw thisbsill compare to how privateerpress is doing.
I'm not a PP hater, and I think there is more than enough room in the ecosystem for both...
But at the same time, suck it PP
I am also curious if other companies like Mantic saw their profit increase? Or is their profit declining with how well GW currently is doing. I thought with the dead of WFB that Mantic would really start off, but I don't think it happened.
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Post by: judgedoug
Tamereth wrote:The best thing to happen to GW was something they had nothing to do with, and that was the fall in valve of the pound.
GW sell a lot of stuff abroad, and almost over night all of those sales were worth 1.5 times more to them.
So don't go congratulating them too much. Hopefully if they invest this profit boost correctly it will mean good things for the future, but they may just pay out a big dividend to their most important people, I.e. Their shareholders, cuz that's how plc companies operate.
Do you have information to back up this claim? The only thing I can find is in the last report which had included revenue as constant currency. Please cite source. Also interested in the "1.5 times figure", could not correlate the pound crash to any other foreign currency at that increase in value.
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Post by: JohnnyHell
judgedoug wrote: Tamereth wrote:The best thing to happen to GW was something they had nothing to do with, and that was the fall in valve of the pound.
GW sell a lot of stuff abroad, and almost over night all of those sales were worth 1.5 times more to them.
So don't go congratulating them too much. Hopefully if they invest this profit boost correctly it will mean good things for the future, but they may just pay out a big dividend to their most important people, I.e. Their shareholders, cuz that's how plc companies operate.
Do you have information to back up this claim? The only thing I can find is in the last report which had included revenue as constant currency. Please cite source. Also interested in the "1.5 times figure", could not correlate the pound crash to any other foreign currency at that increase in value.
I can believe it. The company I was working at at the time exported books. We had the best trading day in the company's history the day after the Brexit vote, bigger than any Christmas by a large multiple, as the pound plummeted and suddenly everyone overseas chose us to buy from. So sales leapt and being paid in dollars meant the weak pound benefitted the company when they changed it back. This effect didn't go away.
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Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik
Surely that would only affect the wholesale price?
I mean, if it costs $10US to buy in, then the buyer is getting extra munneh because the pound is shafted. I doubt they’re passing that on to the end user?
As for PP, Mantic etc...
This is the trouble with this particular market. To the best of my knowledge, GW are the only PLC in the market, and thus the only one to publish ratified accounts every 6 months.
Thus, we’ve absolutely no idea how the rest of the industry might be fairing. It could be boom time all round. It could be that GW has reclaimed their place as the biggest Cash Blackhold.
Even that survey that’s published is of extremely limited use, as GW themselves don’t partake. If you look at GW’s annual reports, you can see the amount of their sales that therefore aren’t factored in. And being a voluntary survey, we’ve no idea how many of FFGs outlets are taking part etc.
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Post by: JohnnyHell
Either wholesale, yes, or direct sales in non-GBP currencies. They all became worth more overnight.
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Post by: FudgeDumper
And what this tells GW is that it can keep making worse and worse rules + fluff and still make profit. Hopefully this will cradle them into a false security and then BAM a death knell will hit them like never before. Oh sweet sweet death of GW I cant wait. Like the waiting for a hated old father to perish.
The captive IPs will be spread with the wind and not before then might they thrive again.
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Post by: JohnnyHell
Oh. Kaaaay.
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Post by: EnTyme
FudgeDumper wrote:And what this tells GW is that it can keep making worse and worse rules + fluff and still make profit. Hopefully this will cradle them into a false security and then BAM a death knell will hit them like never before. Oh sweet sweet death of GW I cant wait. Like the waiting for a hated old father to perish.
The captive IPs will be spread with the wind and not before then might they thrive again.
You must be fun at parties.
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Post by: Davor
Tamereth wrote:The best thing to happen to GW was something they had nothing to do with, and that was the fall in valve of the pound.
GW sell a lot of stuff abroad, and almost over night all of those sales were worth 1.5 times more to them.
So don't go congratulating them too much. Hopefully if they invest this profit boost correctly it will mean good things for the future, but they may just pay out a big dividend to their most important people, I.e. Their shareholders, cuz that's how plc companies operate.
Is Games Workshop the only company in UK that does business? While you maybe correct, how come other companies in UK are not like GW then? If you are trying to put a negative spin on this and doing what you can so GW does not get praised, how come other companies are not doing as good as GW?
Maybe the changes GW did do, also helped into the increase in profits?
Like come on dude, if you are still sour on GW at least back up your facts. So please make a list of all the other UK companies that improved so much like GW because the fall in value of the pound. You can state 10 of them, then you can be correct in your assessment, if you can't then what you say is just your sour opinion and not fact as you claim.
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Post by: Overread
FudgeDumper wrote:The captive IPs will be spread with the wind and not before then might they thrive again.
Or the IP fails to sell and gets held for decades by a finance firm
Or the IP gets bought by a company well outside of the gaming world who uses it for other things - coming soon the new blockbuster Warhammer film by Hollywood. Follow the adventures of Private Bill who works his way from a lowly guardsman to the position of terminator with the help of his good friend Bob the Necron and his girlfriend who happens to be an Eldar Princess in hiding in the Emperors armies. (and of course no more models - its all action figures)
Or the IP gets bought by a company that tries their best, but honestly hasn't got the millions needed to save the franchise. You get a hit-miss series of random releases over a few years before it all dies off again.
Or another company buys it up, but uses it to market block and refuses to put it into production again, thus securing the market for thier own game
Ok so seriously if things got so bad that GW went into liquidation chances are the game market would have changed a lot and some company might be able to take it on. But it would still be a terrible time for gamers; not forgetting that in the run-up to liquidation chances are you'd have dwindling sales; local clubs falling apart; other companies pushing seriously into the market. You could even end up with GW so marginalised that whilst another company would take it over it would never rise to the fore again - going from mainstream to niche.
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Post by: Brutus_Apex
I think they did already? That terrible awful gakky 8th edition was canned - and then they released Age of Sigmar.
And Warhammer 40k is better than it's ever been
8th ed. Fantasy was the best rules set GW has ever produced. AOS is mindless drivel.
8th. ed. 40K is only better because 7th. sucked so badly, but truthfully 40K has always been bad rules wise. 8th. went way too far in oversimplifying the rules.
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Post by: Hollow
Leave.
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Post by: FudgeDumper
Overread wrote:FudgeDumper wrote:The captive IPs will be spread with the wind and not before then might they thrive again.
Or the IP fails to sell and gets held for decades by a finance firm
Or the IP gets bought by a company well outside of the gaming world who uses it for other things - coming soon the new blockbuster Warhammer film by Hollywood. Follow the adventures of Private Bill who works his way from a lowly guardsman to the position of terminator with the help of his good friend Bob the Necron and his girlfriend who happens to be an Eldar Princess in hiding in the Emperors armies. (and of course no more models - its all action figures)
Or the IP gets bought by a company that tries their best, but honestly hasn't got the millions needed to save the franchise. You get a hit-miss series of random releases over a few years before it all dies off again.
Or another company buys it up, but uses it to market block and refuses to put it into production again, thus securing the market for thier own game
And that is basically what we have right now. GW cant stay true to its own roots because of pressure from the revolting, repellent, repulsive, sickening, nauseating, stomach-churning, off-putting, unpalatable, unsavory, distasteful, foul, nasty, obnoxious, vomitous shareholders.
All the options you listed would be a huge positive change to what we have now. GW had something great, but greed was the second thing holding their reigns beside inspiration, and now what we are left with is a bunch of unskilled morons trying to breath life into a rotten carcass while being flogged by their shareholder overlords.
I really had to force myself to not be negative while writing this lest my emotions take over and remove all my credibility. But its a damn shame seeing noble intention with great potential being slowly transformed into nothing more then systemized greed.
PS: And since when is mainstream something positive?
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Post by: Baron Klatz
You're a hoot!
Fly away little crow, there's no carcass here for you, only a resplendent king who'll likely see you to an old withered age.
Long live GW and confusion to his enemies!
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Post by: Overread
Fudge perhaps you just need a new miniature line or a new hobby? Seriously you seem to have a lot of bottled up hate that seems to be totally at the extreme end. It honestly sounds like you need to take a break from the game and get into something else. (esp after I spent all of 5 seconds having a quick glance at your thread/post history).
Step out and take up a new hobby - you sound so jade with 40K that its not healthy for you to keep going whilst you're clearly raging about it way too much.
Even just taking a step back and just painting might be all you need; though I'd wager you need a totally new direction. What about Warmachine/Hordes; or try a smaller game like Infinity; or perhaps the new up-coming Dystopian Age games; or heck try photography/sports/walking/books/snooker/other hobbies.
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Post by: Galas
Brutus_Apex wrote:I think they did already? That terrible awful gakky 8th edition was canned - and then they released Age of Sigmar.
And Warhammer 40k is better than it's ever been
8th ed. Fantasy was the best rules set GW has ever produced. AOS is mindless drivel.
8th. ed. 40K is only better because 7th. sucked so badly, but truthfully 40K has always been bad rules wise. 8th. went way too far in oversimplifying the rules.
The best rule set GW has ever produced was the first Lotr skirmish one.
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Post by: Baron Klatz
Yeah, it's strange that never really took off. There were so many great rules there for mass fighting or even just holding a wall.
Oh well, AoS is that for me but streamlined so I'm good there.
@Overread, pretty sure you're looking at his hobby...
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Post by: Lord Kragan
Galas wrote: Brutus_Apex wrote:I think they did already? That terrible awful gakky 8th edition was canned - and then they released Age of Sigmar.
And Warhammer 40k is better than it's ever been
8th ed. Fantasy was the best rules set GW has ever produced. AOS is mindless drivel.
8th. ed. 40K is only better because 7th. sucked so badly, but truthfully 40K has always been bad rules wise. 8th. went way too far in oversimplifying the rules.
The best rule set GW has ever produced was the first Lotr skirmish one.
Niet, it's shadespire (okay, most likely not, but it comes a close second IMO).
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Post by: Ruin
Baron Klatz wrote:You're a hoot!
Fly away little crow, there's no carcass here for you, only a resplendent king who'll likely see you to an old withered age.
Long live GW and confusion to his enemies!
...and they say GW and its most devoted of followers are not like The Imperium at all. Nope. Nosireebob. Not. At. All.
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Post by: Slayer-Fan123
Brutus_Apex wrote:I think they did already? That terrible awful gakky 8th edition was canned - and then they released Age of Sigmar.
And Warhammer 40k is better than it's ever been
8th ed. Fantasy was the best rules set GW has ever produced. AOS is mindless drivel.
8th. ed. 40K is only better because 7th. sucked so badly, but truthfully 40K has always been bad rules wise. 8th. went way too far in oversimplifying the rules.
1. Mind explaining why 8th Fantasy was their best?
2. Depends the simplified parts. Terrain and cover need more rules but that's really about it.
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Post by: EnTyme
Ruin wrote:Baron Klatz wrote:You're a hoot!
Fly away little crow, there's no carcass here for you, only a resplendent king who'll likely see you to an old withered age.
Long live GW and confusion to his enemies!
...and they say GW and its most devoted of followers are not like The Imperium at all. Nope. Nosireebob. Not. At. All.
Wouldn't that make you a heretic?
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Post by: Ruin
EnTyme wrote:Ruin wrote:Baron Klatz wrote:You're a hoot!
Fly away little crow, there's no carcass here for you, only a resplendent king who'll likely see you to an old withered age.
Long live GW and confusion to his enemies!
...and they say GW and its most devoted of followers are not like The Imperium at all. Nope. Nosireebob. Not. At. All.
Wouldn't that make you a heretic?
We prefer the term "iconoclast"
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Post by: Baron Klatz
...and they say GW and its most devoted of followers are not like The Imperium at all. Nope. Nosireebob. Not. At. All.
Haha, that's a compliment in my book.
I was always devoted but nowadays I can honestly say I'd take a bullet for Rountree.
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Post by: Davor
*edit* Ack formatting mucked up.
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Post by: Iron_Captain
Galas wrote: Brutus_Apex wrote:I think they did already? That terrible awful gakky 8th edition was canned - and then they released Age of Sigmar.
And Warhammer 40k is better than it's ever been
8th ed. Fantasy was the best rules set GW has ever produced. AOS is mindless drivel.
8th. ed. 40K is only better because 7th. sucked so badly, but truthfully 40K has always been bad rules wise. 8th. went way too far in oversimplifying the rules.
The best rule set GW has ever produced was the first Lotr skirmish one.
Aye. Fantasy 8th was great, but LotR had the best rules GW ever made. I kinda wish GW would do more with it.
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Post by: Rolsheen
GW need to re-invest the money into production infrastructure and employment. Increase their molding capabilities so they can keep current models in stock and bring out new models. Hire new staff so they can reverse the one man store decision and expand the core staff at GW HQ
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Post by: Racerguy180
ERJAK wrote:
People are really heavily focusing on what this means for GW going forward but I think it's actually going to be much more valuable as a case study on the effects of consumer engagement.
I would think rather than consumer engagement, it'd be more like a drastic change to their business practices. Going from plugging their ears to the cries from the market to actually listening to their source of revenue.
I would definitely champion thus as an example of what not to do...followed with their current modus operandi.
Finally they're doing things that the entire business sector had been doing for 20ish years or so.
Applause all around.
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Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik
Rolsheen wrote:GW need to re-invest the money into production infrastructure and employment. Increase their molding capabilities so they can keep current models in stock and bring out new models. Hire new staff so they can reverse the one man store decision and expand the core staff at GW HQ
I doubt the one man store thing is gonna change any time soon. In short, it's working for them. And each new employee is a wage and insurance bill. In the UK, on a minimum wage? Assuming a 40 hour week, that's an extra £15,600 just on paying them.
Sure, they could open two more days a week. But having worked in a GW store on a few occasions, I can be fairly confident that those two days alone aren't going to balance the cost of the staff member...
I do want to see them hire more creatives. The more creatives, the more stuff I can buy!
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Post by: tneva82
You assume you need good game to sell miniatures though. GW games have never been what could be considered good. They make good profit DESPITE their games, not because of them.
You do know things sell on other factors than rules right?
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Post by: phillv85
That's a matter of opinion, clearly plenty of people like their games.
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Post by: tneva82
Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:Surely that would only affect the wholesale price?
I mean, if it costs $10US to buy in, then the buyer is getting extra munneh because the pound is shafted. I doubt they’re passing that on to the end user?
At the moment if I buy start collecting from UK I pay 49€(plus free shipping). If I buy it from finland I pay 65€ plus if I want to get it delivered(rather than go ~50km one way to shop) it costs shipping. That's 25% difference(plus possible shipping). This gap increases or decreases as pound value changes. Euro price stays same. However if I buy from UK I pay on pounds which gets translated by current exchange ratio.
Thus if pound crash sufficiently it's going to have big impact on my price. This is going to just have at least same sales for GW, possibly more if I use savings to buy more. I might even invest more than initially planned to take advantage of cheap price(ie if I was planning to spend 400€ which translated to say 320£ for GW. Then pound crash to same ratio and I still spend same amount but GW gets 346£. However I might easily decide that rather than 400€ I spend 450€ or 500€ to take advantage of price before it increases more.
So yeah the exchange ratio has HUGE impact. Even tiny ones can have big impact on absolute money count( ATM I'm following yen on vested interest as slight change there can mean hundreds of euro's won/lost)
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Post by: JohnnyHell
tneva82 wrote:
You assume you need good game to sell miniatures though. GW games have never been what could be considered good. They make good profit DESPITE their games, not because of them.
You do know things sell on other factors than rules right?
Is your view. A lot of other people have enjoyed playing their games for 30+ years and consider many of them good. Don't present opinion as fact.
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Post by: tneva82
phillv85 wrote:That's a matter of opinion, clearly plenty of people like their games.
Mostly as it allows you to be in GW hobby. But if there would be better rules that allowed to use it GW rules would be competing less well.
But GW has always had advantage in backgrounds, model quality/style, number of plastic kits, visibility...For many newcomers they might not even know of any other miniature games. It's so big that for newcomers words "miniature games" and "warhammer" are synonymous. This GW got on their very good PR system in '90's. This is something other companies struggle to get and results in new blood flocking to GW games _regardless_ of rules. Other games tends to get ex- GW players as source of customers. Complete newbies are much less aware there's this miniature game you might have to special order rather than just pick up from store shelf with big clearly visible attractive marketed starting box like GW has.
This advantage is HUGE and until some other company can get there GW has easy time getting new blood even without any effort spent on rules writing(as AOS showed).
It's so bad you can go to non- GW games store and you might think that's GW store as it's GW products visible easily with other games on some less visible location on shelves.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
JohnnyHell wrote:tneva82 wrote:
You assume you need good game to sell miniatures though. GW games have never been what could be considered good. They make good profit DESPITE their games, not because of them.
You do know things sell on other factors than rules right?
Is your view. A lot of other people have enjoyed playing their games for 30+ years and consider many of them good. Don't present opinion as fact.
You do know people don't even have to think rules as perfect to play? Shocking concept: People can play games even if they are bad because there's other concepts that counterfact. Like models(not easily usable in other games), background(not usable in other games), opponents(good luck playing better games if nobody else play!). What a shocking novel concept! Who would have thought! You need opponents to play game with 2+ players required! UNBELIEVABLE!
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Post by: Baron Klatz
Well I very much enjoy their games. 8th fantasy, AoS (all it's spin-offs) and Mordheim. Excellent fun.
I do want to see them hire more creatives. The more creatives, the more stuff I can buy!
Hear hear!
Also, about upping production, someone made a very good point at the thread's start that it'd be best to wait and have the sales stabilize before investing in something which may become superfluous and costly in the future.
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Post by: Overread
The only way they can and should increase the number of shop staff is if the costs of doing business for the shops lowers and/or the profit (sales) per store goes up by a significant amount.
Otherwise a single big cash injection (lets face it 8th edition sales rates will not last forever) would be a bad time to expand shop staff and then find in a year or two that the money is gone; that it didn't generate much extra in sales/support and that they've then got to let staff go again to keep things running
Much as I'd love to see the shops staffed up by three or so staff again I just can't see it happening unless the highstreet has a huge change in rent/rates
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Post by: xking
I enjoy Age of sigmar(and it's lore). It is what got me into the hobby.
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Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik
Oh don't worry about people putting the game down.
Just seems to be the in thing these days.
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Post by: Baron Klatz
Yeah, unfortunately, tough to find a fandom these days which doesn't bite the hand that feeds them.
Oh well, just carry on and keep rolling the dice.
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Post by: BlaxicanX
FudgeDumper wrote: I really had to force myself to not be negative while writing this lest my emotions take over and remove all my credibility.
You failed. There have been alot of blunders in the execution of 8th edition (personal peeves include the double-dipping in customers' wallets with the sales of the indexes and Chapter Approved), but the current ruleset is still the most functional rendition of 40K rules we've had since 5th edition, at least.
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Post by: judgedoug
JohnnyHell wrote: judgedoug wrote: Tamereth wrote:The best thing to happen to GW was something they had nothing to do with, and that was the fall in valve of the pound.
GW sell a lot of stuff abroad, and almost over night all of those sales were worth 1.5 times more to them.
So don't go congratulating them too much. Hopefully if they invest this profit boost correctly it will mean good things for the future, but they may just pay out a big dividend to their most important people, I.e. Their shareholders, cuz that's how plc companies operate.
Do you have information to back up this claim? The only thing I can find is in the last report which had included revenue as constant currency. Please cite source. Also interested in the "1.5 times figure", could not correlate the pound crash to any other foreign currency at that increase in value.
I can believe it. The company I was working at at the time exported books. We had the best trading day in the company's history the day after the Brexit vote, bigger than any Christmas by a large multiple, as the pound plummeted and suddenly everyone overseas chose us to buy from. So sales leapt and being paid in dollars meant the weak pound benefitted the company when they changed it back. This effect didn't go away.
Sorry if I wasn't really clear. I was asking for specifics to back up a fairly extravagant claim ("the best thing to happen to GW"). The only specifics I know of are GW directly addressing it in their last report by discussing revenue in normal versus constant currencies. Additionally, I can't locate a "1.5 times" figure of the GBP versus any of their major export currencies. For example, the GBP to USD exchange rate went from ~1.49 to ~1.21 during the four-month decline post-Brexit, hardly "worth 1.5 times more" (actually more like roughly 1.2 to 1.25 times more for the US market) Automatically Appended Next Post: FudgeDumper wrote:And what this tells GW is that it can keep making worse and worse rules + fluff and still make profit. Hopefully this will cradle them into a false security and then BAM a death knell will hit them like never before. Oh sweet sweet death of GW I cant wait. Like the waiting for a hated old father to perish.
The captive IPs will be spread with the wind and not before then might they thrive again.
Your theory would hold water if the premise wasn't the opposite of reality. Automatically Appended Next Post: Brutus_Apex wrote:8th ed. Fantasy was the best rules set GW has ever produced. AOS is mindless drivel.
Yikes. WHFB 8th is not just subjectively bad (to the majority of gamers, hence it's financial failure), the ruleset itself is so badly written that it is an objectively bad ruleset. While I'm sure there's a market for anything, no matter how bad it is, it's obviously not a good one, as evidence by, you know, Warhammer 8th being excised like a tumor.
Automatically Appended Next Post: Iron_Captain wrote:Aye. Fantasy 8th was great, but LotR had the best rules GW ever made. I kinda wish GW would do more with it.
They are ramping up for the re-release next year under the new branding, "Middle-earth Strategy Battle Game". They renewed the licenses for a decade and put a dedicated team of writers, developers, and sculptors into the property. There have been numerous new releases in the last year, all ramping up to the relaunch for 2018. The GW Middle-earth team actively participates on Facebook and in the SBG events worldwide, and has included the community in playtesting scenarios, rules changes, and more.
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Post by: bouncingboredom
Long time lurking, first time posting, as this subject caught my eye.
It's true that the devaluation of the pound has helped people like GW immensely. I say "people" because they're not the only ones to have benefitted. Essentially all exporters (but not all manufacturers) have benefitted from it, as it represents in many cases a 10-20% discount for overseas custsomers (depending on the specific exchange rate at the time you make your purchase/which currency you're buying in etc).
The fashion line Burberry for example was headed down the long spiral towards administration until the Brexit triggered devaluation handed them a lifeline. Not much of a lifeline, because their business is still a hot mess, but they've seen sales in China rocket which offers them at least some hope for the future.
Aston Martin has seen a similar boost. Back in February they revised their EBITA (sort of profit, but excluding things like tax) to a figure five times what it had been compared to the same time the previous year. This was largely triggered by the devaluation coming along just months ahead of the launch of the DB11, which was massive for them, especially in asian markets like Japan.
If you look at the finanical figures for GW from last year, everything was kind of flat until the Brexit vote, then their sales went mental. Notably, their UK sales didn't budge much (their retail business was and still is a basket case). If you look at the US and EU sales to trade however (third party suppliers/FLGS etc) you'll see massive spikes in sales. Remember that these suppliers already get a hefty discount from GW and were then handed another 15% odd on top. They've basically filled their boots with GW product while it's going cheap and will likely continue to do so for the forseeable future.
The moral of the story being a) GW is doing handsomely at the minute, but b) don't expect them to go all warm and fuzzy and start doing nice things for you all of a sudden, they probably will pocket the cash their making now, and c) judging by the way they've worded their financial statements it's entirely plausible that they think most (90%) of this success was down to them and as such haven't accepted some of the underlying weaknesses in their business. See the thread about "Chapter Approved" for warning signs that they've learned nothing in the last twelve months.
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Post by: Baron Klatz
Hmm, I believe they have already stated they're preparing for when their sales start to drop and that they know future sales won't stay this high.
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Post by: judgedoug
bouncingboredom wrote:If you look at the finanical figures for GW from last year, everything was kind of flat until the Brexit vote, then their sales went mental. Notably, their UK sales didn't budge much (their retail business was and still is a basket case). If you look at the US and EU sales to trade however (third party suppliers/ FLGS etc) you'll see massive spikes in sales. Remember that these suppliers already get a hefty discount from GW and were then handed another 15% odd on top. They've basically filled their boots with GW product while it's going cheap and will likely continue to do so for the forseeable future.
The moral of the story being a) GW is doing handsomely at the minute, but b) don't expect them to go all warm and fuzzy and start doing nice things for you all of a sudden, they probably will pocket the cash their making now, and c) judging by the way they've worded their financial statements it's entirely plausible that they think most (90%) of this success was down to them and as such haven't accepted some of the underlying weaknesses in their business. See the thread about "Chapter Approved" for warning signs that they've learned nothing in the last twelve months.
Can you extrapolate on this? I cannot find corroboration. GW sets their own prices in every country they do business, so there would have been no additional discount for distributors and FLGS.
In fact, the only statements I've seen from GW compare real to constant currencies, and most of their report is based on the constant currency valuation (ie, how the company is doing if there had not been a substantial change in their primary currency).
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Post by: JohnnyHell
It's not about what price they set, and no those wouldn't have changed. It's that getting paid in dollars suddenly got profitable as each dollar of the wholesale price was worth more pounds overnight. Anyone exporting from the UK and not being paid in sterling benefitted.
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Post by: bouncingboredom
judgedoug wrote:
Can you extrapolate on this? I cannot find corroboration. GW sets their own prices in every country they do business, so there would have been no additional discount for distributors and FLGS.
In fact, the only statements I've seen from GW compare real to constant currencies, and most of their report is based on the constant currency valuation (ie, how the company is doing if there had not been a substantial change in their primary currency).
Traders buy directly in bulk from GW. They don't pay a fixed price like people entering a GW store. They'll speak to a sales agent from GW and negotiate a bespoke price based on a variety of factors, largest among which will be how big of an order they place. This will be priced in UK pounds, so if they're buying in a foreign currency then the price can go up/down based on currency movements. This is how virtually all retailing works, though often with a third layer (wholesalers) involved in the middle for smaller outlets. A bulk retail buyer can expect to get anywhere from 25-35% off the RRP, sometimes even more. This is why various retailers in the UK are able to sell GW products at less than the GW store price, because they're passing some of their bulk saving onto customers in order to secure sales.
Constant currency is just a way of making sure that currency changes don't fiddle the figures. It's hard to explain, but basically all it's doing is letting you compare total sales figures in a fair manner.
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Post by: Tamereth
bouncingboredom wrote: judgedoug wrote:
Can you extrapolate on this? I cannot find corroboration. GW sets their own prices in every country they do business, so there would have been no additional discount for distributors and FLGS.
In fact, the only statements I've seen from GW compare real to constant currencies, and most of their report is based on the constant currency valuation (ie, how the company is doing if there had not been a substantial change in their primary currency).
Traders buy directly in bulk from GW. They don't pay a fixed price like people entering a GW store. They'll speak to a sales agent from GW and negotiate a bespoke price based on a variety of factors, largest among which will be how big of an order they place. This will be priced in UK pounds, so if they're buying in a foreign currency then the price can go up/down based on currency movements. This is how virtually all retailing works, though often with a third layer (wholesalers) involved in the middle for smaller outlets. A bulk retail buyer can expect to get anywhere from 25-35% off the RRP, sometimes even more. This is why various retailers in the UK are able to sell GW products at less than the GW store price, because they're passing some of their bulk saving onto customers in order to secure sales.
Constant currency is just a way of making sure that currency changes don't fiddle the figures. It's hard to explain, but basically all it's doing is letting you compare total sales figures in a fair manner.
That's not how it works with GW, the wholesale discount was 45% before VAT on generally available items, and 10% on anything that was direct only. It didn't matter if you order 1 of a product or 1000, there is no negotiating. I doubt that's changed in the last two years since I last dealt with them.
As far as I am aware all sales over seas are dealt with in that countries currency. If a shop ordered €1000 last year, order the same this year it resulted in GW have more £ sterling in their pocket. Given that the pound fell in value against basically all other currencies this means all sales outside of the UK were worth more to GW this year than last.
Following the brexit vote, being a Uk based manufactorer selling goods abroad has been a great time, unless the raw materials you buy were coming from abroad, in which case the cost of producing your goods has sky rocketed.
The constant currency bit of there annual report is the important bit, thats how we will be able to see what sort of sales increase, in terms of number of sales they have had. But I'm not an accountant and I couldn't tell you how they calculate or show that.
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Post by: bouncingboredom
Tamereth wrote:
That's not how it works with GW, the wholesale discount was 45% before VAT on generally available items, and 10% on anything that was direct only. It didn't matter if you order 1 of a product or 1000, there is no negotiating. I doubt that's changed in the last two years since I last dealt with them.
As far as I am aware all sales over seas are dealt with in that countries currency. If a shop ordered €1000 last year, order the same this year it resulted in GW have more £ sterling in their pocket. Given that the pound fell in value against basically all other currencies this means all sales outside of the UK were worth more to GW this year than last.
Following the brexit vote, being a Uk based manufactorer selling goods abroad has been a great time, unless the raw materials you buy were coming from abroad, in which case the cost of producing your goods has sky rocketed.
The constant currency bit of there annual report is the important bit, thats how we will be able to see what sort of sales increase, in terms of number of sales they have had. But I'm not an accountant and I couldn't tell you how they calculate or show that.
Different people have reported different numbers when dealing with GW. When Shadow War was released, US retailers were able to negotiate different prices with the GW agents based on number of units purchased. A number of other retailers over the years have had the same experience, being able to reap a bigger discount for buying larger quantities. This is pretty much standard across the world of retailing, but obviously your own experience is what it is.
Overseas sales are done in the currency of the sellers choice. In some cases it's easier to make the buyer convert the currency themselves and pay you in that, for others they'll take the currency of the buyer and convert it at a time that suits them. If I remember correctly one of the complaints that Miniwargaming had was that GW forced them to buy in Canadian dollars, instead of allowing them to use US dollars. Taking payment in foreign currency can be handy if you have a lot of bills to pay in said currency, such as related to shipping, marketing, staffing etc. I can't tell you what GW's current practice is. The price they charge will however have to take into account the pound cost of producing and selling the items, being a UK based company.
The main benefit of the currency shift is that everything is cheaper for foreign buyers, so $1000 buys them a lot more stock than it did before. Now is the time for them to stock up, which appears to be what they're doing, which benefits GW from greatly increased sales. And while input costs for manufacturers have gone up in some cases (depends where you're getting your inputs from and how far you paid in advanced/whether you currency hedged or not and to what extent) generally you can pass on the increase to customers and still see a profitable price reduction, because the input is just a fraction of the cost, whereas the output price covers the whole cost.
The constant currency bit of their financials is basically just a way of saying "we've taken the movement of currency out of the raw total figures. Here's what our sales are like, compared fairly with the year before". It's the difference between saying "last year we sold $1000 of stock in the US, but this year we've sold $2000! Double the sales!!" when in actual fact you sold £1000 of stuff in the US both years, it's just that the dollar halved in value against the pound (in this particular hypothetical). The real world constant currency numbers show that GW's US sales have genuinely increased, on the order of almost 50% in the case of trade sales. Constant currency does not however deny the fact that this is because their goods are cheaper to American buyers now, which has made it highly profitable for those buyers to stock up now, sell chunks of the stock at a discount while likely keeping hold of some reserves of common stuff like Tac marines so they don't have to buy as many later if the pound strengthens again against the dollar.
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Post by: EnTyme
So what is your point exactly? GW had a really good year, but not a really really good year?
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Post by: bouncingboredom
EnTyme wrote:So what is your point exactly? GW had a really good year, but not a really really good year?
No, I was trying to offer some support on a point made earlier by someone else; GW has had an excellent year, but a lot of it seems to be down to a factor outside of their control. As such, people should be cautious about making statements that GW has turned a corner when it comes to dealing with their customers or expecting GW to suddenly become a virtuous benefactor. Further, people should be really, really cautious about the idea that GW has learned the lessons of the past. Lots of people seem to be attributing their success to a variety of factors that would appear to have no actual relationship to their financial results.
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Post by: EnTyme
Is GW the only publicly-traded company in the UK with international distribution? If not, why aren't those other companies ranked as the fastest-growing in the UK? The strong about-face GW made when it comes to customer interaction was a MAJOR factor in their growth over the last two years alongside the release of a new edition. You can't write that off just because the pound fell in value.
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Post by: bouncingboredom
EnTyme wrote:Is GW the only publicly-traded company in the UK with international distribution? If not, why aren't those other companies ranked as the fastest-growing in the UK? The strong about-face GW made when it comes to customer interaction was a MAJOR factor in their growth over the last two years alongside the release of a new edition. You can't write that off just because the pound fell in value.
If you go back and read my first post I addressed these issues directly. To recap, in order to save you having to go back a few pages;
- British fashion house Burberry saw a significant growth in sales in China in the wake of Brexit, largely driven by the reduction in the pound. Their sales growth in this region was comparable with GW's growth in trade sales to the US and EU.
- Car maker Aston Martin reported a five fold (500%) year on year increase in its expected EBITA back in February, largely driven by strong demand in the wake of Brexit for its new DB11 model in places like Japan. For the first time in a decade it was looking at back to back quarters of growth.
- GW's financial statements earlier this year showed very little increase in UK earnings. It showed staggering growth in US and EU trade sales growth. If it was GW policy changes that had made the difference we should have seen strong UK sales growth as well. Instead we're seeing what appears to be currency related discounting driving bulk trade sales.
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Post by: Chikout
If you look at the actual exchange rate history with the dollar, the pound fell off a cliff in July 2016 and hit its lowest point in October 2016. Since then it has been gradually rising. So the pound would undoubtedly have a big impact on last year's numbers, but the impact this year would arguably be less. That makes this year's result even more impressive. I have attached a graph for reference.
1
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Post by: Hollow
bouncingboredom wrote:
Different people have reported different numbers when dealing with GW. When Shadow War was released, US retailers were able to negotiate different prices with the GW agents based on number of units
This would have been a singular exception. Trade accounts give set percentage discounts regardless of order-size. (Speaking as someone who has had a trade account and who knows several people who have/had them)
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Post by: OrlandotheTechnicoloured
I suspect the biggest effect of the price drop from the fall of the pound was to get a bunch of folk in the USA who hadn't bought GW in a while but hadn't totally given up on them some incentive to buy something
and once they started buying the realised that a bunch of the stuff they had got fed up with had (begun to) change plus the minis were as good as they remembered
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Post by: Marius Xerxes
OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:I suspect the biggest effect of the price drop from the fall of the pound was to get a bunch of folk in the USA who hadn't bought GW in a while but hadn't totally given up on them some incentive to buy something
and once they started buying the realised that a bunch of the stuff they had got fed up with had (begun to) change plus the minis were as good as they remembered
Speaking only for myself, obviously, the changes brought in by 8th got me to spend my money. The prices on the models in store didn't change at all.
The new rule set and the willingness to do what they did from 2nd to 3rd with a system "reset" button (i.e. no codex survives the edition transition) was the most appealing reason to jump back in. Codex information and army capability wise, after sitting out an edition, being able to start on the ground floor with everyone else was a major selling factor.
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Post by: An Actual Englishman
The more money GW make, the more awesome models we get. This is good news all round!
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Post by: Baron Klatz
Hear hear!
They also make more games and open the doors to more community input to keep the train rolling.
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Post by: bouncingboredom
Chikout wrote:If you look at the actual exchange rate history with the dollar, the pound fell off a cliff in July 2016 and hit its lowest point in October 2016. Since then it has been gradually rising. So the pound would undoubtedly have a big impact on last year's numbers, but the impact this year would arguably be less. That makes this year's result even more impressive. I have attached a graph for reference.
If you look at the right of the graph you'll notice that the pound has barely recovered past where it was in the immediate wake of Brexit. It still has a long way to go before it reaches pre-Brexit levels.
Hollow wrote:
This would have been a singular exception. Trade accounts give set percentage discounts regardless of order-size. (Speaking as someone who has had a trade account and who knows several people who have/had them)
There's actually been a number of quotes out there from different people who have run trade accounts with GW who have supported the idea that they can get bigger discounts by ordering in bulk. Not that this really matters, it's the currency change that's important. But again, if that's your experience then I'm not going to tell you that your personal experience is wrong. It's possible that it's a territory thing or based off the size of the buyer.
OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:I suspect the biggest effect of the price drop from the fall of the pound was to get a bunch of folk in the USA who hadn't bought GW in a while but hadn't totally given up on them some incentive to buy something
and once they started buying the realised that a bunch of the stuff they had got fed up with had (begun to) change plus the minis were as good as they remembered
It's possible that many people felt this way, but the biggest rise was in trade sales and it should be pointed out that they were doing really big increases before 8th edition dropped. Their massive jump in 2016/17 numbers occured from the point of the Brexit vote to the end of the financial year (which pre-dated 8th edition). It's more likely that what we're seeing is just a continuation of that trend, with added oomph from the release of 8th.
An Actual Englishman wrote:The more money GW make, the more awesome models we get. This is good news all round!
And this is precisely what I was cautioning about. GW has been quite clear over recent years that when it makes a lot of cash its business strategy is to hand this cash over to investors, not to pump it all into new lines.
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Post by: Baron Klatz
Well for one there's a lot of new blood in charge since those days and secondly it doesn't matter on that front as they are constantly releasing better and better models despite a booming sales rate or not.
So I'll just go on believing in GW, the new policies of community support and their amazing products, thank you.
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Post by: AllSeeingSkink
I really doubt the brexit drop had a huge influence on sales volume as just as GW haven't changed their MSRP during the brexit drop, I also doubt they changed their wholesale price much and it's not like independent retailers are suddenly giving away stuff for lower price either.
So the effect on the end consumer has been almost nothing unless they were importing GW stuff (which GW made difficult to do with their trade agreements) or buying direct from FW.
And one thing people do forget is while brexit most definitely helped GW overall, GW also has significant infrastructure in other countries. They don't just put their crap on a boat and wave goodbye to it, they have distribution centres in other countries and have stores in other countries. So along with the rise in revenue from brexit they've had a rise in costs, paying rent, wages and transport costs for their US distribution chain also jumped. Those things are a huge chunk of GW's expenses.
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Post by: BrotherGecko
OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:I suspect the biggest effect of the price drop from the fall of the pound was to get a bunch of folk in the USA who hadn't bought GW in a while but hadn't totally given up on them some incentive to buy something
and once they started buying the realised that a bunch of the stuff they had got fed up with had (begun to) change plus the minis were as good as they remembered
I think every US player can agree that the price for GW models has decreased in no way since or before the pound's change. Though I will say that FW resin products are about as expensive for us as the GW plastics are last I looked, which is a change.
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Post by: streetsamurai
AllSeeingSkink wrote:I really doubt the brexit drop had a huge influence on sales volume as just as GW haven't changed their MSRP during the brexit drop, I also doubt they changed their wholesale price much and it's not like independent retailers are suddenly giving away stuff for lower price either.
So the effect on the end consumer has been almost nothing unless they were importing GW stuff (which GW made difficult to do with their trade agreements) or buying direct from FW.
And one thing people do forget is while brexit most definitely helped GW overall, GW also has significant infrastructure in other countries. They don't just put their crap on a boat and wave goodbye to it, they have distribution centres in other countries and have stores in other countries. So along with the rise in revenue from brexit they've had a rise in costs, paying rent, wages and transport costs for their US distribution chain also jumped. Those things are a huge chunk of GW's expenses.
Pretty sure Gw pay the expenses they have in other countries with the revenu they make in them. So i dont think the brexit really rise their operating cost.
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Post by: Mitochondria
I'm not happy about this.
Prices and rules are still gak.
GW should he punished, not rewarded for their behavior.
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Post by: Thebiggesthat
Mitochondria wrote:I'm not happy about this.
Prices and rules are still gak.
GW should he punished, not rewarded for their behavior.
I love it when there are financial threads on here about GW, you can taste the salty tears
8th is great, AoS is superb, and they are finally supporting games that we all wanted back. Added to that, they are making the prettiest models they ever have done.
There is plenty of Warmachine in clearance bins all over the UK, and on eBay. I'm sure you could find a game that doesn't make you cross.
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Post by: Zethnar
BrotherGecko wrote:I think every US player can agree that the price for GW models has decreased in no way since or before the pound's change. Though I will say that FW resin products are about as expensive for us as the GW plastics are last I looked, which is a change.
You're missing the point. Big retailers are buying up product cheap, storing it, and selling it on at the regular price. You aren't seeing a discount because the price difference is going into the retailer's pocket.
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Post by: Benn Roe
Zethnar wrote: BrotherGecko wrote:I think every US player can agree that the price for GW models has decreased in no way since or before the pound's change. Though I will say that FW resin products are about as expensive for us as the GW plastics are last I looked, which is a change.
You're missing the point. Big retailers are buying up product cheap, storing it, and selling it on at the regular price. You aren't seeing a discount because the price difference is going into the retailer's pocket.
This is not true. I'm a US retailer. GW's wholesale and retail prices haven't changed at all. GW has a US headquarters through which they sell to all US stores and distributors. They sell using fixed USD pricing that doesn't fluctuate one cent based on the value of the pound. The weaker pound is making them more money not because anyone anywhere else in the world is now able to get their products cheaper (we aren't), but because money spent in USD is now worth more to them than it used to be. Unlike a typical exporter, GW sets fixed pricing for the local currency in every country in which they do business and accepts that their profits will fluctuate with the strength of the pound, a luxury afforded by their astronomically high prices compared to costs. Their increase in sales volume, on the other hand, is entirely because 8th edition 40K has been extremely popular, bringing many former players back into the fold as well as attracting new players for the first time since prices skyrocketed a few years back. My own store's 40K sales are up about 300% over last year, even though our profit margin and pricing remains the same.
Forge World, on the other hand, functions more like a traditional exporter, dealing only directly with customers and dealing only in GBP. It's definitely cheaper for the rest of the world to buy Forge World now than it was a year and a half ago.
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Post by: ZebioLizard2
Mitochondria wrote:I'm not happy about this.
Prices and rules are still gak.
GW should he punished, not rewarded for their behavior.
Punished for what behavior exactly?
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Post by: bouncingboredom
streetsamurai wrote:
And it's not that the brexit increased the sale volume in units, its that compared to before the brexit, the same amount of money in foreign currency is now worth a lot more in pound. For example, if because of the brexit, the pound has lost half its value compared to the usd (it hasnt lost that much value, but it makes it easier to explain), even if the profit made in the us stays exactly the same, when translated in pound, it means a 100% increase in profit.
Except their figures are adjusted for constant currency so we know that's not the case. We know that they have seen a marked increase in sale volume, with more product being shifted.
Benn Roe wrote: Zethnar wrote:
The weaker pound is making them more money not because anyone anywhere else in the world is now able to get their products cheaper (we aren't) ........ Their increase in sales volume, on the other hand, is entirely because 8th edition 40K has been extremely popular, bringing many former players back into the fold as well as attracting new players for the first time since prices skyrocketed a few years back. My own store's 40K sales are up about 300% over last year, even though our profit margin and pricing remains the same.
As with others, I'm not going to tell you your experience is wrong, but other retailers have seen discounts. Possibly differing trading terms from different times when agreements were signed? Though my understanding is GW has one set of terms it expects everyone to follow. As for the second part, the increase in their sales volume significantly predates the release of 8th edition. 8th has likely given them a big additional boost, but we can draw the beginning of this "boom" back to before that point, back to the Brexit vote.
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Post by: streetsamurai
If im not mistakem, only the revenue are adjusted at constant currency, not the profit.
Edit: after looking more closely at the latest financial, the profit is also given in cc in some later page. And the growth is still fairly impressive. So GW growth seems to be in no way mainly dependant on the brexit
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Post by: AllSeeingSkink
streetsamurai wrote:AllSeeingSkink wrote:I really doubt the brexit drop had a huge influence on sales volume as just as GW haven't changed their MSRP during the brexit drop, I also doubt they changed their wholesale price much and it's not like independent retailers are suddenly giving away stuff for lower price either. So the effect on the end consumer has been almost nothing unless they were importing GW stuff (which GW made difficult to do with their trade agreements) or buying direct from FW. And one thing people do forget is while brexit most definitely helped GW overall, GW also has significant infrastructure in other countries. They don't just put their crap on a boat and wave goodbye to it, they have distribution centres in other countries and have stores in other countries. So along with the rise in revenue from brexit they've had a rise in costs, paying rent, wages and transport costs for their US distribution chain also jumped. Those things are a huge chunk of GW's expenses. Pretty sure Gw pay the expenses they have in other countries with the revenu they make in them. So i dont think the brexit really rise their operating cost.
Their operating costs in other countries would have gone up by the same proportion as their revenue in those countries. Obviously a drop in the GBP is good for GW, which is why I said "brexit most definitely helped GW overall" I was just pointing out that GW is not an exporter, they have infrastructure they need to support in other countries as well, so they can't really leverage the drop in the GBP the same way some other companies might (as GW was being compared to other companies in posts prior to mine). For example a company that operates wholly in the UK might have 50M operating costs, 30M revenue in the UK and 30M revenue in the US, thus 10M profit. If the GBP drops by a third, their US revenue might jump to 40M (either through increased volume or better return for the same volume) but they don't incur additional costs and thus they have doubled their profits. That's NOT how GW operates, they have significant operating costs in the US as well so their operating costs also have to be adjusted. Still a net positive, but not nearly as significant as a company that keeps their operational costs in the UK (I imagine companies like Aston Martin keep much of their costs in the UK so can really leverage a weaker GBP in a way GW can't).
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Post by: phillv85
Brexit will have played its part, but is not going to be the only reason they have had a bumper year.
For a company that sells 70% of its product overseas it would have made an extra 10-20% when converting the USD to GBP since the Brexit vote depending on the time of conversion and up to 18% on Euro transactions.
It sounds like they have made considerably more than the extra 20% (absolute maximum from currency conversions) in revenue this year.
I'm pleased for GW to have been making more money than recent history. They appear to be reinvesting it in new miniatures and listening to what their player base wants to some degree. Sure they're not perfect, but I doubt they'll ever be able to please everyone with such a wide spanning range.
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Post by: dosiere
Honestly this doesn't surprise me much. What surprised me was that they didn't drop off a cliff during the last few years when AoS first dropped and 40k was borderline unplayable. It made me realize that their core business really is the "hobby" a their paints, miniatures, and the game is secondary to many of their customers who really can be classified as collectors.
It doesn't describe me, but the numbers tell the story. Now that they've stopped actively antagonizing their own customers and working in a sealed culture bubble I'm not surprised they are doing well.
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Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik
Having customers that dare to disagree with Mitochondria I guess?
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Post by: bouncingboredom
streetsamurai wrote:If im not mistakem, only the revenue are adjusted at constant currency, not the profit.
Edit: after looking more closely at the latest financial, the profit is also given in cc in some later page. And the growth is still fairly impressive. So GW growth seems to be in no way mainly dependant on the brexit
The growth is more than impressive. In North America it's been ridiculously good.
As for constant currency, I've tried explaining this a few times but I'm not doing a very good job of it I think. It's an accounting tool used to make sure that underlying revenue figures are not hidden by a currency shift. It allows investors to see whether your overseas operations are actually doing better or worse, without the final sum being masked by a currency shift. Basically, when everyone keeps saying " GW's foreign income is worth more now because of the currency shift", that's what constant currency figures are designed to account for and remove from the final tally. What constant currency figures do not account for is increased sales because your product is cheaper now overseas, because that's not how constant currency works.
For example;
phillv85 wrote:Brexit will have played its part, but is not going to be the only reason they have had a bumper year.
For a company that sells 70% of its product overseas it would have made an extra 10-20% when converting the USD to GBP since the Brexit vote depending on the time of conversion and up to 18% on Euro transactions.
It sounds like they have made considerably more than the extra 20% (absolute maximum from currency conversions) in revenue this year.
This is exactly what the constant currency figures have already accounted for. They've eliminated the raw percentage shift from the currency movement. What's left is the genuine increase in like for like sales. The constant currency calculation does not however account for increased sales caused by the product becoming cheaper to import due to the currency movement. There really is no tool as such for doing that. The best we can do is look at their firgures in different markets and over time to make reasoned deductions.
So for example, we know that UK growth was ok, but not spectacular, from mid-2016 to mid-2017. We know they shut some of their worst performing stores and opened some new ones like the "flagship" Tottenham Court Road store (which was supposedly the test bed for a new store design/branding). They invested in updating the merchandising and some of the other elements of their UK retail outlets, which returned them to profitability, albeit it only just. We also know that growth was much more sluggish in markets that benefitted less from the devaluation of the pound. Australia and New Zealand for example saw some growth, but it was pretty humble. We also know that the two markets that benefitted the most from the currency shift - the US and the EU - saw the biggest growth, by a massive margin.
It's probable therefore, (but by no means certain) that the biggest influencing factor was the currency shift reducing prices in the US and EU markets. Even if they just stopped a potential price increase, that alone can be valuable. The timing meshes with the release of the AOS general's handbook, but then in that case we should have seen big increases in the UK and AUS/NZ markets, unless these markets have hit close to their saturation point, which is unlikely given the past sales history of GW.
Another alternative of course is that GW is cooking its books, but that's highly unlikely
dosiere wrote:Honestly this doesn't surprise me much. What surprised me was that they didn't drop off a cliff during the last few years when AoS first dropped and 40k was borderline unplayable. It made me realize that their core business really is the "hobby" a their paints, miniatures, and the game is secondary to many of their customers who really can be classified as collectors.
It doesn't describe me, but the numbers tell the story. Now that they've stopped actively antagonizing their own customers and working in a sealed culture bubble I'm not surprised they are doing well.
Except they almost did. Well, I say almost, they only made £13 million odd profit (after tax) in the year ending May 2016, which by GW standards is not great. They acknowledged openly that they'd had a terrible Christmas period and that the business was not performing the way they'd hoped, which is why they started to make some changes. Then they appear to have been handed the golden boost on a platter with the Brexit vote.
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Post by: streetsamurai
bouncingboredom wrote:streetsamurai wrote:If im not mistakem, only the revenue are adjusted at constant currency, not the profit. Edit: after looking more closely at the latest financial, the profit is also given in cc in some later page. And the growth is still fairly impressive. So GW growth seems to be in no way mainly dependant on the brexit The growth is more than impressive. In North America it's been ridiculously good. As for constant currency, I've tried explaining this a few times but I'm not doing a very good job of it I think. It's an accounting tool used to make sure that underlying revenue figures are not hidden by a currency shift. It allows investors to see whether your overseas operations are actually doing better or worse, without the final sum being masked by a currency shift. Basically, when everyone keeps saying " GW's foreign income is worth more now because of the currency shift", that's what constant currency figures are designed to account for and remove from the final tally. What constant currency figures do not account for is increased sales because your product is cheaper now overseas, because that's not how constant currency works. For example; phillv85 wrote:Brexit will have played its part, but is not going to be the only reason they have had a bumper year. For a company that sells 70% of its product overseas it would have made an extra 10-20% when converting the USD to GBP since the Brexit vote depending on the time of conversion and up to 18% on Euro transactions. It sounds like they have made considerably more than the extra 20% (absolute maximum from currency conversions) in revenue this year. This is exactly what the constant currency figures have already accounted for. They've eliminated the raw percentage shift from the currency movement. What's left is the genuine increase in like for like sales. The constant currency calculation does not however account for increased sales caused by the product becoming cheaper to import due to the currency movement. There really is no tool as such for doing that. The best we can do is look at their firgures in different markets and over time to make reasoned deductions. So for example, we know that UK growth was ok, but not spectacular, from mid-2016 to mid-2017. We know they shut some of their worst performing stores and opened some new ones like the "flagship" Tottenham Court Road store (which was supposedly the test bed for a new store design/branding). They invested in updating the merchandising and some of the other elements of their UK retail outlets, which returned them to profitability, albeit it only just. We also know that growth was much more sluggish in markets that benefitted less from the devaluation of the pound. Australia and New Zealand for example saw some growth, but it was pretty humble. We also know that the two markets that benefitted the most from the currency shift - the US and the EU - saw the biggest growth, by a massive margin. It's probable therefore, (but by no means certain) that the biggest influencing factor was the currency shift reducing prices in the US and EU markets. Even if they just stopped a potential price increase, that alone can be valuable. The timing meshes with the release of the AOS general's handbook, but then in that case we should have seen big increases in the UK and AUS/NZ markets, unless these markets have hit close to their saturation point, which is unlikely given the past sales history of GW. Another alternative of course is that GW is cooking its books, but that's highly unlikely dosiere wrote:Honestly this doesn't surprise me much. What surprised me was that they didn't drop off a cliff during the last few years when AoS first dropped and 40k was borderline unplayable. It made me realize that their core business really is the "hobby" a their paints, miniatures, and the game is secondary to many of their customers who really can be classified as collectors. It doesn't describe me, but the numbers tell the story. Now that they've stopped actively antagonizing their own customers and working in a sealed culture bubble I'm not surprised they are doing well. Except they almost did. Well, I say almost, they only made £13 million odd profit (after tax) in the year ending May 2016, which by GW standards is not great. They acknowledged openly that they'd had a terrible Christmas period and that the business was not performing the way they'd hoped, which is why they started to make some changes. Then they appear to have been handed the golden boost on a platter with the Brexit vote. Yeah, I know what CC is. But the thing is, the product has not gotten cheaper (bar for FW), cause, unless I'm mistake, a retailer buy GW product from GW North-America (and they get charged in US dollars) (and the price has not changed since the Brexit AFAIK). If a US retailer had to pass by GW UK, then the pound devaluation would have helped them, but presently, since GW is regionally structured, i'm pretty sure it's not the case.
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Post by: bouncingboredom
There are still two options, both of which utilise a degree of creative accounting. One is to use an unrealistic figure to do the constant currency calculation. Obviously the currency moves about during the year, but final accounting figures can only be adjusted by one block figure. By picking an unrepresentative figure you can basically fiddle the true currency adjusted figure. The other thing you can do is mess with totals by selective application of which year gets adjusted, so there's a difference in adjusting this years figures using last years currency rate vs adjusting last years figures using this years currency rate.
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Post by: Mymearan
Well, you have shop owners in this thread saying they don’t get a discount even after Brexit, and their prices (in, say, USD) are the same as before. But you’re saying others do, and in fact a big chunk of GWs revenue increase comes from increased purchases from retailers who get presumably huge discounts so they can stockpile stuff. Where did you get this info? How do you know that these Brexit discounts are so widespread that we can attribute a large part of increased sales to them? And further, that GWs new policies and behaviour are secondary to the Brexit effect as you seem to imply?
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Post by: lord_blackfang
The pound would have to lose a third of its value to cover a 50% increase in sales, and that's only if all sales were abroad and in other currencies. So obviously poppycock. I know my FLGS pays GW in pounds, and can offer a better discount when the pound is weak.
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Post by: bouncingboredom
Mymearan wrote:Well, you have shop owners in this thread saying they don’t get a discount even after Brexit, and their prices (in, say, USD) are the same as before. But you’re saying others do, and in fact a big chunk of GWs revenue increase comes from increased purchases from retailers who get presumably huge discounts so they can stockpile stuff. Where did you get this info? How do you know that these Brexit discounts are so widespread that we can attribute a large part of increased sales to them? And further, that GWs new policies and behaviour are secondary to the Brexit effect as you seem to imply?
I believe it was people who used to own shops in this thread, and this being the internet I can't verify their statements, so all I have to work with is the fixed, known variables available to me. The issue of Brexit discounts driven (I'm still crunching some maths on the possibility of a constant currency fudge) as opposed to GW policy/behaviour driven is that if it was policy/behaviour then we would expect to see broadly similar increases across the board in all territories. Instead what we're seeing are modest increases in sales in places like UK/AUS, but much, much larger increases in the territories that gained the most advantage from the currency movement, those being the US and EU. It's never going to be all one factor, if it was purely currency related there would be very little UK movement yet there has been some, so it's more a question of "what is the predomnating factor?"
Logical deduction would at this point lead us to something currency related being the predominant factor.
lord_blackfang wrote:The pound would have to lose a third of its value to cover a 50% increase in sales, and that's only if all sales were abroad and in other currencies. So obviously poppycock. I know my FLGS pays GW in pounds, and can offer a better discount when the pound is weak.
No it wouldn't. The pound could drop by say 5% and that discount could theoretically drive people overseas to buy 20% more product for example. That's a little extreme but it illustrates the point.
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Post by: Samsonov
Pretty stunning turn around compared to what the old management were doing. Lets hope hubris does not take over.
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Post by: Formosa
Good for them, hope they dont make the same mistake they made with LOTR bubble.
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Post by: Overread
Formosa wrote:Good for them, hope they dont make the same mistake they made with LOTR bubble.
To be fair I think with that bubble it was more the sudden nature of it that shocked GW. That and I think that they kind of felt that their new LotR sales figures were going to generate similar figures to their other ranges because the kind of person buying into the hobby was the same as their fantasy/ 40K lines. So the sudden drop off of casual buyers I think caught them by surprise; esp as unlike the action toy market and most others matured on film merchandise; GW didn't have another film franchise to launch people into.
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Post by: Baron Klatz
They already stated something to the effect that future profits likely won't be this good so they're well aware of such a threat.
They're definitely learning from past mistakes.
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Post by: AllSeeingSkink
lord_blackfang wrote:The pound would have to lose a third of its value to cover a 50% increase in sales, and that's only if all sales were abroad and in other currencies. So obviously poppycock. I know my FLGS pays GW in pounds, and can offer a better discount when the pound is weak.
Where are you located? It makes sense for minor markets to pay in GBP, but major markets which have their own distribution centers (USA, Australia/NZ) it makes much more sense for those distribution centers to sell in the local currency.
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Post by: streetsamurai
bouncingboredom wrote:Mymearan wrote:Well, you have shop owners in this thread saying they don’t get a discount even after Brexit, and their prices (in, say, USD) are the same as before. But you’re saying others do, and in fact a big chunk of GWs revenue increase comes from increased purchases from retailers who get presumably huge discounts so they can stockpile stuff. Where did you get this info? How do you know that these Brexit discounts are so widespread that we can attribute a large part of increased sales to them? And further, that GWs new policies and behaviour are secondary to the Brexit effect as you seem to imply?
I believe it was people who used to own shops in this thread, and this being the internet I can't verify their statements, so all I have to work with is the fixed, known variables available to me. The issue of Brexit discounts driven (I'm still crunching some maths on the possibility of a constant currency fudge) as opposed to GW policy/behaviour driven is that if it was policy/behaviour then we would expect to see broadly similar increases across the board in all territories. Instead what we're seeing are modest increases in sales in places like UK/AUS, but much, much larger increases in the territories that gained the most advantage from the currency movement, those being the US and EU. It's never going to be all one factor, if it was purely currency related there would be very little UK movement yet there has been some, so it's more a question of "what is the predomnating factor?"
Logical deduction would at this point lead us to something currency related being the predominant factor.
lord_blackfang wrote:The pound would have to lose a third of its value to cover a 50% increase in sales, and that's only if all sales were abroad and in other currencies. So obviously poppycock. I know my FLGS pays GW in pounds, and can offer a better discount when the pound is weak.
No it wouldn't. The pound could drop by say 5% and that discount could theoretically drive people overseas to buy 20% more product for example. That's a little extreme but it illustrates the point.
GW
UK growth being weak after the Brexit compared to the other market probably is due to the difficult economic situation it caused in this country. Since GW stuff is pure hobby expense, it's pretty much the first thing that gets cut when the budget is a bit tighter
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Post by: Benn Roe
bouncingboredom wrote:I believe it was people who used to own shops in this thread, and this being the internet I can't verify their statements, so all I have to work with is the fixed, known variables available to me.
No, I'm a current retailer. I opened my shop in 2009. GW's prices in the US, both direct from them and from all other major distributors, have remained completely unchanged since their last big price hike back in 2012 or 2013 or so. Have you considered the possibility that Australia's growth was lower because by all accounts GW's prices over there are obscene, which limits growth potential, and that the UK's growth was lower because GW is much more of a household name over there, meaning a much higher percentage of the potential market is already tapped? Those seem like more plausible explanations to me, considering Brexit had zero effect on US prices at any level of the supply chain. I can't speak for the EU, though.
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Post by: Red_Five
I really doubt the Brexit vote had anything to do with an increase in sales of GW products in the US and the EU, since GW's prices have not changed at all. The only thing we in the US buy from GW in GBP are Forge Wold kits. Those prices were definitely affected by Brexit but FW is not large enough to account for this blossoming of profitability.
What is far more likely is that the management changes have pushed consumer confidence up. GW's core games are in a much healthier position today than they have been in probably 5 years or more. GW focusing on social media, GW focusing on sharing information, GW offering more bundles (with good discounts), GW releasing a more well rounded 40k game system, GW releasing lots of codexes, GW updating and FAQing on a consistent basis, etc. are all playing into this. GW has entered the 21st century and is embracing modernity. The buying public has very much rewarded GW for doing this.
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Post by: JohnnyHell
Forums are so binary... it's not an either/or.
The Brexit effect is that sales they would have made anyway will have 100% definitely made them more money via currency exchange shenanigans. Weak pound = exports get you more money, and sales are more profitable. Of course they didn't pass that on to wholesalers/retailers and lower their prices! They kept it. No visible outward change + currency benefit = profit.
That they have delivered two revamped game systems, a bunch of splash releases and their best models for donkeys years in that time and driven sales up too is why the figures look so damn good.
It's not one or the other, both are reasons for the upswing.
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Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik
JohnnyHell wrote:Forums are so binary... it's not an either/or.
The Brexit effect is that sales they would have made anyway will have 100% definitely made them more money via currency exchange shenanigans. Weak pound = exports get you more money, and sales are more profitable. Of course they didn't pass that on to wholesalers/retailers and lower their prices! They kept it. No visible outward change + currency benefit = profit.
That they have delivered two revamped game systems, a bunch of splash releases and their best models for donkeys years in that time and driven sales up too is why the figures look so damn good.
It's not one or the other, both are reasons for the upswing.
Logic and reason? How dare you.
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Post by: JohnnyHell
Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote: JohnnyHell wrote:Forums are so binary... it's not an either/or.
The Brexit effect is that sales they would have made anyway will have 100% definitely made them more money via currency exchange shenanigans. Weak pound = exports get you more money, and sales are more profitable. Of course they didn't pass that on to wholesalers/retailers and lower their prices! They kept it. No visible outward change + currency benefit = profit.
That they have delivered two revamped game systems, a bunch of splash releases and their best models for donkeys years in that time and driven sales up too is why the figures look so damn good.
It's not one or the other, both are reasons for the upswing.
Logic and reason? How dare you.
I'll be burnt as a heretic soon, mark you.
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Post by: bouncingboredom
streetsamurai wrote:
GW
UK growth being weak after the Brexit compared to the other market probably is due to the difficult economic situation it caused in this country. Since GW stuff is pure hobby expense, it's pretty much the first thing that gets cut when the budget is a bit tighter
The UK is doing well. Being British we like to complain about everything, particularly first world problems; "Ugh, it's so expensive now to take the kids abroad during the school holidays". Poor didums. The reality is that GW has had a rough time in recent years. They're headed in a better direction lately, but there's still a long way to go to unwind some of the mistakes of the past.
Benn Roe wrote:
No, I'm a current retailer. I opened my shop in 2009. GW's prices in the US, both direct from them and from all other major distributors, have remained completely unchanged since their last big price hike back in 2012 or 2013 or so. Have you considered the possibility that Australia's growth was lower because by all accounts GW's prices over there are obscene, which limits growth potential, and that the UK's growth was lower because GW is much more of a household name over there, meaning a much higher percentage of the potential market is already tapped? Those seem like more plausible explanations to me, considering Brexit had zero effect on US prices at any level of the supply chain. I can't speak for the EU, though.
To put some perspective on how much the UK market still has left in it, when I first started playing 40K (2nd edition, aging myself a little) they used to run TV adverts, had distribution deals with major high street retailers, and gaming groups exclusive to GW products were everywhere with very solid numbers (our school, in a fairly small town 10 miles from the nearest GW store had 20 regulars at the group and a lot more people who played but didn't attend the group). Now they're running with one-man stores for the most part. They're a long way from their heyday, but with the right approach they could probably get back there.
Anyway, to the point. I did some very, very crude number crunching and by using what I think is a more realistic constant currency adjustor you get figures from the US and EU which are much more comparable with those from the rest of the world, still showing good growth in underlying sales (new stores, new products like AOS handbook, recovering from a rough year in 2015/16) but a little less hyperbolic shall we say. Smiles all round
Red_Five wrote:What is far more likely is that the management changes have pushed consumer confidence up. GW's core games are in a much healthier position today than they have been in probably 5 years or more. GW focusing on social media, GW focusing on sharing information, GW offering more bundles (with good discounts), GW releasing a more well rounded 40k game system, GW releasing lots of codexes, GW updating and FAQing on a consistent basis, etc. are all playing into this. GW has entered the 21st century and is embracing modernity. The buying public has very much rewarded GW for doing this.
I wouldn't hold your breath on that. I see a lot of peope grumbling already and it hasn't even been out that long. Any new release like this - especially of a game as important as 40K - is basically a license to print money. The volume orders from 3rd party retailers alone would have generated some healthy profits. Much hinges on where they go from here, in particular their strategy for retail outlets. It'll be an interesting next couple of years for sure.
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Post by: Baron Klatz
I see a lot of people grumbling already and it hasn't even been out that long.
Welcome to Dakkadakka.
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Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik
Erm.....the UK isn’t doing well.....like, at all?
Growth revised downwards, wages stagnant, cost of living soaring...that’s not a healthy economy!
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Post by: Baron Klatz
Sorry to hear that. :(
(Though I think it's safe to say you're not alone..)
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Post by: JohnnyHell
Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:Erm.....the UK isn’t doing well.....like, at all?
Growth revised downwards, wages stagnant, cost of living soaring...that’s not a healthy economy!
Guessing I know how that chap above voted... because I agree with you, 'doing well' we ain't.
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Post by: bouncingboredom
Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:Erm.....the UK isn’t doing well.....like, at all?
Growth revised downwards, wages stagnant, cost of living soaring...that’s not a healthy economy!
Do you have any idea how silly that sounds; "The UK isn't doing well at all because the OBR revised its annual growth forecast down slighty". So the economy is growing at a fairly sound rate, better than it has done in a while, but apparently now that's a sign it's not doing well? Not least the fact that a few days after the OBR did that, new data was released which cast doubt over their assertions and now there's growing talk that they may have grossly underestimated potential growth over the final quarter. Unemployment is at a record low level. Total active participation in the workforce is at a record high. Government borrowing throughout the year has been less than previously forecast because of unexpectedly higher tax income. Yeah, the roof is falling in...
And wages aren't stagnant. They're not growing as fast as some people hoped, which is a very different thing. Nor is the cost of living "soaring". Since Labour came to power back in '97 the target rate of inflation set by the government has been 2%, a target which the UK has consistently failed to achieve virtually every year since the target was introduced. Just a couple of years ago the main concern of government was that prices would enter deflation, which is a really serious place for an economy to be in. Now inflation is running at a little under 3%, not that far over the target rate and certainly much better than going the other way, and yet for some reason the BBC and the Guardian newspaper are losing their minds.
Meanwhile, anyone with a passing interest in economics recognises this as a) being actual a solid state of affairs. Not brilliant, but good. And b) being the after effect of almost a decade of wage growth outstripping price growth. We've been having it nice for a long time, some people are just getting upset because milk might go from being £1 for 4 pints to £1.03 for 4 pints.
Baron Klatz wrote:Sorry to hear that. :(
(Though I think it's safe to say you're not alone..)
It really isn't bad. Brexit has caused a lot of division and the current government is not particularly popular, even with their own side. As such there are a tremendous number of people who want the economy to fail just so they can get their own way. Think of them as being like that guy earlier in this thread who was hoping GW "gets what it deserves" or whatever it was he said. As always, politics does not mix well with economics.
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Post by: JohnnyHell
For anyone not in the UK, the above post is more fantastical than space wizards firing mind bullets.
And anyway, the thread should be about the company that makes the space wizards.
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Post by: Azreal13
No, it's mostly accurate. The economy is still growing, just more slowly than forecast, wages are going up, they're just not keeping track with inflation currently, but inflation itself is still fairly modest.
Basically there's sufficient information to support whichever political drum you wish to bang, but it's only going to be time that acts as a final arbiter in most cases.
But I'm not entirely sure how deep one can go on the wider socio economic implications of Brexit before you're effectively off topic.
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Post by: bouncingboredom
JohnnyHell wrote:For anyone not in the UK, the above post is more fantastical than space wizards firing mind bullets.
And anyway, the thread should be about the company that makes the space wizards.
Except you're forgetting people outside the UK can check it and realise it's not.
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Post by: AllSeeingSkink
JohnnyHell wrote:Forums are so binary... it's not an either/or. .... It's not one or the other, both are reasons for the upswing.
I think you'll struggle to find too many posts on the forum where people said it was entirely one or the other. Most people are saying it's obviously a bit of both and are just discussing the various implications, conditions and proportions. Of course it wouldn't be hard to estimate if we just looked up the report and did some maths to figure it out, it's just most people are too lazy or don't have the free time. Automatically Appended Next Post: Azreal13 wrote:But I'm not entirely sure how deep one can go on the wider socio economic implications of Brexit before you're effectively off topic.
Well let me try. I think unless the economy goes completely tits up it's probably not going to have a massive influence on GW's sales volume. I think GW, being a relatively cheap hobby, is not going to feel the effects of minor fluctuations
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Post by: Overread
Lets face it; clearly the change in the attitude and business and release practice of GW has resulted in a real world benefit in increased consumer loyalty; increased sales and increased open communication between GW and the customers.
However much or little the national and global economic changes have influenced this is up for debate; and chances are without pouring over a lot of numbers we'd not get anywhere near a sane opinion on the situation and its likely so complex that opinion is the best we'd get rather than straight fact.
As a result of this chances are GW will continue to act along these lines; its producing a marked increase in revenue for them and even if that's partly a false reading its still a gain and going to encourage them to continue to behave as they are starting too.
For us gamers this is a great thing; it means a company paying more attention to us; it means changes in release patterns for the better of the game; it means continued model support and new releases.
Yes 8th isn't perfect; but this is their first go at it. Plus we've not yet seen it finished with all codex released. Then again when 9th edition comes we''ll have another chance to see how they handle that. By that point new codex releases would make sense after all the FAQ and Errata updates plus new releases over the years. We could even see a time when GW doesn't wholesale change all of the core game between editions. 9th might build upon 8th much stronger. Automatically Appended Next Post: AllSeeingSkink wrote:. I think GW, being a relatively cheap hobby, is not going to feel the effects of minor fluctuations
I've often heard it said that hobbies actually do well (comparatively speaking) during times of economic downturn as people seek more escapism. Warhammer likely easily fits into that bracket of being affordable (yes GW might not be the cheapest wargame, but its certanily cheaper than a lot of other hobbies)
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Post by: AllSeeingSkink
Overread wrote:However much or little the national and global economic changes have influenced this is up for debate; and chances are without pouring over a lot of numbers we'd not get anywhere near a sane opinion on the situation and its likely so complex that opinion is the best we'd get rather than straight fact.
Actually I don't think it'd be all that hard to paint a relatively detailed picture, I just don't have the free time to look up their financial reports and try and break it down.
Because GW didn't change their pricing in their biggest markets, you don't have to make massive assumptions about changes in demand due to changes in pricing with changing exchange rate (except for FW, but I think they give enough of a breakdown to quantify that uncertainty).
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Post by: bouncingboredom
Overread wrote:Lets face it; clearly the change in the attitude and business and release practice of GW has resulted in a real world benefit in increased consumer loyalty; increased sales and increased open communication between GW and the customers.
For us gamers this is a great thing; it means a company paying more attention to us; it means changes in release patterns for the better of the game; it means continued model support and new releases.
.... Yes 8th isn't perfect; but this is their first go at it. Plus we've not yet seen it finished with all codex released. Then again when 9th edition comes we''ll have another chance to see how they handle that. By that point new codex releases would make sense after all the FAQ and Errata updates plus new releases over the years. We could even see a time when GW doesn't wholesale change all of the core game between editions. 9th might build upon 8th much stronger.
To an extent, I suspect it has. I just think that at the minute people are overestimating how much of an impact this has actually had and as such are misleading themselves about how much GW has actually learnt/the extent to which they're putting their talk into practice.
The company I work for does an annual staff survey for example. I doubt anyone will be surprised to hear that each year this survey reports back that everything is brilliant and the staff all love the business and the way it operates and that everyone thinks senior management are doing a brilliant job, despite the fact you don't hear much of that from the actual staff. It's a survey in name only. In reality they probably look at the results once then chuck them in bin, not least because the same general complaints crop up each time and never get solved. There's a significant difference between actual change and presenting change.
Looking at some of the other threads for example I see lots of complaints that SM will effectively have gained three new codexes before some of the Xenos even have one. That's old school games workshop in action and doesn't strike me as a company that has learned much or thought much about the future. Of course we've seen complaints that such and such unit is underpowered/overpowered/unbalanced/undercosted/overcosted and all the usual, which in fairness would probably happen to some degree no matter how perfectly balanced the game was in reality because people like their factions and want them to do well, but the amount of complaining suggests that GW still has some room to grow when it comes to working out balance issues. I'm just not convinced personally that this is a major turning of a corner as much as it is switching lanes on the same highway. 9th edition will be interesting though, for example whether they address this issue around the order of codex releases.
Either way, cash wise they're in rude health and their business model is more resiliant than people think to downturns. Arguments about GW's business is never really about whether or not they'll make money, it's more about how much profit can they/will they/would they make.
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Post by: Overread
Looking at some of the other threads for example I see lots of complaints that SM will effectively have gained three new codexes before some of the Xenos even have one. That's old school games workshop in action and doesn't strike me as a company that has learned much or thought much about the future.
But you have to factor in that Space Marines make an insane % of all GW's sales. So on that score it makes full sense that GW would support the larger portion of its buying market as early as possible.
It's a kind of self fullfilling issue in that Marines sell well so GW markets them more so they sell more so GW markets them more --
That said this round its far less of an issue than in the past. In the past armies went years or never got a new codex for some editions. This time we are looking at being completed early next year. By GW standards that's an insane speed of release; ontop of that the index, whilst not perfect, have done a big job of at least ensuring all armies are valid for 8th edition at a basic level.
I don't expect GW to respond to every user request or get it right every time, but I do think they are taking steps that many have wanted and have made some big changes to their release method and approach.
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Post by: streetsamurai
JohnnyHell wrote:Forums are so binary... it's not an either/or. The Brexit effect is that sales they would have made anyway will have 100% definitely made them more money via currency exchange shenanigans. Weak pound = exports get you more money, and sales are more profitable. Of course they didn't pass that on to wholesalers/retailers and lower their prices! They kept it. No visible outward change + currency benefit = profit. That they have delivered two revamped game systems, a bunch of splash releases and their best models for donkeys years in that time and driven sales up too is why the figures look so damn good. It's not one or the other, both are reasons for the upswing. yeah ,this was already explained before. The real profit is 38,3 (up from 16,9), while the profit in constant currency is 31,3 (up from 16,9 obviously). So, we can see that while the brexit had an effect, it clearly was not the main driver of the growth since it only contributed to about a 1/3 of the rise in profit (this is taking as an hypothesis that retailers and distributors outside the UK can't buy directly from GW UK). Automatically Appended Next Post: bouncingboredom wrote:streetsamurai wrote: GW UK growth being weak after the Brexit compared to the other market probably is due to the difficult economic situation it caused in this country. Since GW stuff is pure hobby expense, it's pretty much the first thing that gets cut when the budget is a bit tighter The UK is doing well. Being British we like to complain about everything, particularly first world problems; "Ugh, it's so expensive now to take the kids abroad during the school holidays". Poor didums. The reality is that GW has had a rough time in recent years. They're headed in a better direction lately, but there's still a long way to go to unwind some of the mistakes of the past. Benn Roe wrote: No, I'm a current retailer. I opened my shop in 2009. GW's prices in the US, both direct from them and from all other major distributors, have remained completely unchanged since their last big price hike back in 2012 or 2013 or so. Have you considered the possibility that Australia's growth was lower because by all accounts GW's prices over there are obscene, which limits growth potential, and that the UK's growth was lower because GW is much more of a household name over there, meaning a much higher percentage of the potential market is already tapped? Those seem like more plausible explanations to me, considering Brexit had zero effect on US prices at any level of the supply chain. I can't speak for the EU, though.
To put some perspective on how much the UK market still has left in it, when I first started playing 40K (2nd edition, aging myself a little) they used to run TV adverts, had distribution deals with major high street retailers, and gaming groups exclusive to GW products were everywhere with very solid numbers (our school, in a fairly small town 10 miles from the nearest GW store had 20 regulars at the group and a lot more people who played but didn't attend the group). Now they're running with one-man stores for the most part. They're a long way from their heyday, but with the right approach they could probably get back there. Anyway, to the point. I did some very, very crude number crunching and by using what I think is a more realistic constant currency adjustor you get figures from the US and EU which are much more comparable with those from the rest of the world, still showing good growth in underlying sales (new stores, new products like AOS handbook, recovering from a rough year in 2015/16) but a little less hyperbolic shall we say. Smiles all round Red_Five wrote:What is far more likely is that the management changes have pushed consumer confidence up. GW's core games are in a much healthier position today than they have been in probably 5 years or more. GW focusing on social media, GW focusing on sharing information, GW offering more bundles (with good discounts), GW releasing a more well rounded 40k game system, GW releasing lots of codexes, GW updating and FAQing on a consistent basis, etc. are all playing into this. GW has entered the 21st century and is embracing modernity. The buying public has very much rewarded GW for doing this.
I wouldn't hold your breath on that. I see a lot of peope grumbling already and it hasn't even been out that long. Any new release like this - especially of a game as important as 40K - is basically a license to print money. The volume orders from 3rd party retailers alone would have generated some healthy profits. Much hinges on where they go from here, in particular their strategy for retail outlets. It'll be an interesting next couple of years for sure. the UK economy is not doing well, disposable income (probably the most important variable when it comes to hobby budget) supposedly have been falling for 19 successive quarters. Even if you want to contradict the veracity of most indicators, fact is, that at the very least, the perception is that the UK economy is not doing well, and that perception makes people a lot more reluctant to spend on luxury good.
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Post by: AllSeeingSkink
streetsamurai wrote: the UK economy is not doing well, disposable income (probably the most important variable when it comes to hobby budget) supposedly have been falling for 19 successive quarters. Even if you want to contradict the veracity of most indicators, fact is, that at the very least, the perception is that the UK economy is not doing well, and that perception makes people a lot more reluctant to spend on luxury good.
I think it'll hit expensive luxury goods (TV's, high end computers, new cars, etc.) before it hits cheap hobby items like GW products. The good thing about GW products in an economic crisis is they're a huge time sink for a relatively small money investment. While personally I think that's a horrible metric for hobby value, when purse strings start to tighten it's a good fall back hobby until you're so poor that you can only afford to stare at a wall.
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Post by: streetsamurai
AllSeeingSkink wrote: streetsamurai wrote: the UK economy is not doing well, disposable income (probably the most important variable when it comes to hobby budget) supposedly have been falling for 19 successive quarters. Even if you want to contradict the veracity of most indicators, fact is, that at the very least, the perception is that the UK economy is not doing well, and that perception makes people a lot more reluctant to spend on luxury good.
I think it'll hit expensive luxury goods (TV's, high end computers, new cars, etc.) before it hits cheap hobby items like GW products. The good thing about GW products in an economic crisis is they're a huge time sink for a relatively small money investment. While personally I think that's a horrible metric for hobby value, when purse strings start to tighten it's a good fall back hobby until you're so poor that you can only afford to stare at a wall. high end computer and cars have value besise their hobby aspect, while gW mnis does not. And I would say a 40k army is much more expensive than a tv. I seriously get gonfused when I hear people calling GW a cheap hobby
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Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik
Need to compare it to sports and that.
Whilst we tend to keep on buying, the actual necessary cost to get established in GW games is pretty reasonable compared to many other hobbies.
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Post by: streetsamurai
of course you can always find more expensive ones, but compared to most other hobbies, GW is far from cheap
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Post by: xerxeshavelock
AllSeeingSkink wrote: streetsamurai wrote: the UK economy is not doing well, disposable income (probably the most important variable when it comes to hobby budget) supposedly have been falling for 19 successive quarters. Even if you want to contradict the veracity of most indicators, fact is, that at the very least, the perception is that the UK economy is not doing well, and that perception makes people a lot more reluctant to spend on luxury good.
I think it'll hit expensive luxury goods (TV's, high end computers, new cars, etc.) before it hits cheap hobby items like GW products.
The good thing about GW products in an economic crisis is they're a huge time sink for a relatively small money investment. While personally I think that's a horrible metric for hobby value, when purse strings start to tighten it's a good fall back hobby until you're so poor that you can only afford to stare at a wall.
It'll be a long time until I stare at a wall with my unpainted collection......
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Post by: Vorian
streetsamurai wrote:of course you can always find more expensive ones, but compared to most other hobbies, GW is far from cheap
£16 for a Blood bowl team? £20 for Necromunda? £14 for Shadespire?
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Post by: streetsamurai
let's not pretend that these are the bread and butter of GW (not to mention that Necro and Shadespire has nothing to do with the financial results we're discussing, since they were not even released at the time). ANd you for most (all) of these games, you also need to buy the main boxed set.
ANyway, no point in discussing this since it's obvious you're disingenuous
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Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik
streetsamurai wrote:of course you can always find more expensive ones, but compared to most other hobbies, GW is far from cheap
I disagree. You can get a full GW army for less than £500 - if you plan your spending.
If you play a sport, you need your sportswear, which wears out. You also need a pitch or what have you to play on. Those aren't always free, and represent an on-going cost that Wargaming doesn't typically have.
To 'get better' at a Wargame, you might need a new unit or two, change up the dynamic of your army. To 'get better' at a sport? £200 on a pair of football boots. Oh, and super-duper-ultra-light-weight shin pads - those'll be a bit more cash.
Now, that's not to say GW games are cheap - £500 remains £500. But compared to a lot of other stuff, especially when you take into account it's rare any army can't still be used three or four years later?
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Post by: streetsamurai
I don't agree. Most sport I've done (boxing, weightlifting, wrestling, soccer) cost me a lot less annually than what I spend on GW games (hell with the current price of GW mini, adding an unit or two might well cost you 200 pounds : lol Anyway, we're getting off topic, but let's just agree that a game that need an initial investment of pretty much a 1000$ is not exactly cheap
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Post by: Overread
Most hobbies scale in price. You can be into football for the cost of a football from the toy store or you can spend a small fortune.
Which is how it can get complicated comparing because its so easy to be arguing with multiple different impressions on "how much" it takes to take part.
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Post by: Vorian
streetsamurai wrote:let's not pretend that these are the bread and butter of GW (not to mention that Necro and Shadespire has nothing to do with the financial results we're discussing, since they were not even released at the time). ANd you for most (all) of these games, you also need to buy the main boxed set.
ANyway, no point in discussing this since it's obvious you're disingenuous
Not disingenuous at all. We're talking about if GW can be a cheap hobby. I've listed the cheap options available.
I'm not talking about this report or anything else - you said you were confused when people said it could be cheap. Those are 3 games where it's very cheap.
A £40 get started box would keep me busy painting for hours and hours - obviously need paints on top of that.
A £60 - £70 board game is self contained hours of fun. That's what Warhammer quest games were right?
As someone with 0 completed 40k/ AoS armies I can tell you there are lots of ways to spend with GW that doesn't involve hundreds going on a playable army.
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Post by: streetsamurai
yeah, and collecting luxury car can be cheap too, if you steal them. But, as for your example, it is not what people have in mind when they talk about this hobby
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Post by: Vorian
Ah, yeah, if we discount all the cheap ways you can participate in the hobby then it is an expensive hobby.
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Post by: bouncingboredom
Overread wrote:
But you have to factor in that Space Marines make an insane % of all GW's sales. So on that score it makes full sense that GW would support the larger portion of its buying market as early as possible.
It's a kind of self fullfilling issue in that Marines sell well so GW markets them more so they sell more so GW markets them more
True, they're a huge deal. They could still have released the basic SM codex first, hammered through the Xenos, then started on the BA etc. That way the marine players have something basic to work with, then get their fancy stuff later. It's certainly an improvement that some factions won't have to wait 2+ years to get their books for a change. I do wonder though if GW is aware of the kind of self-fulfilling nature of not giving codex releases to an army sooner? It happened with WFB as I understand it, where certain factions that were left in the cold for multiple editions saw their sales plummet, so GW waited even longer to give them books and the cycle continued....
streetsamurai wrote: the UK economy is not doing well, disposable income (probably the most important variable when it comes to hobby budget) supposedly have been falling for 19 successive quarters. Even if you want to contradict the veracity of most indicators, fact is, that at the very least, the perception is that the UK economy is not doing well, and that perception makes people a lot more reluctant to spend on luxury good.
I live in the UK. Trust me, the economy is doing well. Is it doing brilliant? No. Could it be better? Absolutely. Are the politicians helping? No, they never do. But things are solid. The economy is growing. Unemployment is at a record low level. Today at work we hit our sales target for the week, with two days left. That's something like 40 weeks in a row that we've consistently beaten the target (based off last years sales). You can see lots of people out and about, spending money. To be frank, this country has become quite entitled in many ways. People moan because they're stuck with a 42" TV instead of a 60". They moan because their phone bill is a few pounds more expensive per month, never stopping to consider that maybe they don't need an auto-upgrade every 12 months to the latest generation iPhone, with 4G and x number of roving data. Yet everyone keeps spending.
The amusing thing about this is I mentioned the Guardian newspaper as one that has a specific and quite vitriolic agenda, and then you dropped that also note that this article was warning about slowing growth, then the next quarter growth increased...
streetsamurai wrote: And I would say a 40k army is much more expensive than a tv. I seriously get gonfused when I hear people calling GW a cheap hobby
Depends what TV you're buying GW is a relatively cheap hobby considering how much it costs vs the time you get out of it. Consider that tickets to a Prem football match now are often the cost of a starting boxed set. I paid over £100 each time, including travel and food, to go and watch the NFL at Wembley. That's for what, 3 hours of entertainment? How much did some people pay to watch the Mayweather/McGregor fight? Look at how much a set of golf clubs costs. Or a "day" of paintballing. Go Kart racing. Think how much people spend on just a round of drinks at the pub, sometimes several nights per week. In the grand scheme of things GW is not super expensive.
Another advantage for GW is that a lot of their customers essentially have complete disposable income. Teenagers don't pay heating bills or the weekly shop. Most of them can't even be coaxed into buying deoderant. They will however fork out £40 on a fairly routine basis for the latest video game they've spotted. The entry cost of GW games might seem high, but again, how much does an Xbox or Playstation cost new? Not saying that GW couldn't do with dropping their prices a little, but it's not super expensive for anyone with even a modest income (talking minimum wage, full time) and who knows how to look after their cash a little.
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Post by: streetsamurai
Won't try to pass as a specialist in the economic health of the UK, but unemployement rate is one of the worst indicator to use. It doesn't accout for the people who stop actively looking for a job (in period of recession, a lot of people simply quit the labor force), nor those it account for the quality of the jobs created. Disposable income is a much more meaningful indicator imo.
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Post by: bouncingboredom
streetsamurai wrote:Won't try to pass as a specialist in the economic health of the UK, but unemployement rate is one of the worst indicator to use. It doesn't accout for the people who stop actively looking for a job (in period of recession, a lot of people simply quit the labor force), nor those it account for the quality of the jobs created.
Disposable income is a much more meaningful indicator imo.
Then you'll be pleased to know that the number and level of active participants in the economy are also at a record high levels.
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Post by: General Kroll
bouncingboredom wrote: streetsamurai wrote:Won't try to pass as a specialist in the economic health of the UK, but unemployement rate is one of the worst indicator to use. It doesn't accout for the people who stop actively looking for a job (in period of recession, a lot of people simply quit the labor force), nor those it account for the quality of the jobs created.
Disposable income is a much more meaningful indicator imo.
Then you'll be pleased to know that the number and level of active participants in the economy are also at a record high levels.
You know the amount of activity an individual has to do to count as being an active participant in the economy?
1 hour of unpaid work.
That’s why the government can claim we have record levels of employment, while at the same time we see food bank usage surge exponentially, homelessness double, child poverty going up and up, and productivity in the toilet.
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Post by: Vorian
This isn't even controversial, all indicators show our economy is doing badly - compared to the global picture (which is bad itself).
There are lots of independent reports that will explain how assets are overvalued, real incomes are declining, child poverty is increasing, productivity is terrible, growth forecast went off a cliff after Brexit, private pensions had 40% of their value taken by QE, austerity is causing deaths, etc
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Post by: SilverAlien
Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:Need to compare it to sports and that.
Whilst we tend to keep on buying, the actual necessary cost to get established in GW games is pretty reasonable compared to many other hobbies.
A 1500 point army bought direct from GW costs about the same as a mid-high range gaming pc depending on the army in question. Considering how many people consider that an extravagant hobby compared to say consoles, and I think it's pretty clear this isn't a hobby anyone can easily enter on a whim.
Specialists games have a lower barrier to entry, but that actually circles back around to reinstating specialists games being a smart move that let GW take less impact from an economic downturn resulting in less disposable income. Buying an army second hand is also cheaper, but wouldn't factor into GW financials except in by taking away sales as people turned towards being used due to tighter budgets (not to mention more people selling them off as they need cash).
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Post by: bouncingboredom
General Kroll wrote:
You know the amount of activity an individual has to do to count as being an active participant in the economy?
1 hour of unpaid work.
That’s why the government can claim we have record levels of employment, while at the same time we see food bank usage surge exponentially, homelessness double, child poverty going up and up, and productivity in the toilet.
No, we're talking about people that are in paid employment, or who work unpaid in a family business and are considered to derive a benefit from doing so (i.e. a teenager living with their parents and working for them). Meanwhile the PMI (purchasing managers index - a survey of business confidence) has consistently been higher this year than the same point in the previous year. The PMI of manufacturers (no idea if GW is on that list btw) hit a 5 year high in november, driven by quarterly growth of 2% in the sector. Manufacturing orders for UK firms are at their highest rate since 1988.
As for food banks, one of my sisters is a single mum, three kids, low income. Times she's had to use a food bank = 0. Why? Because she works hard and she spends smart. Still able to afford a number of what we might call luxury items. There's some people out there who desperately need the help provided by food banks. The trouble is they're being stigmatised because there's also a hell of a lot of scummy people out there using them who don't need to, but are taking advantage of the free goodies. Homelessness and child poverty are also two factors which are well known for having poor causation with wider economic health. Lot of homeless people living in countries that are doing fantastically economically and in cities that are wealthy.
Vorian wrote:This isn't even controversial, all indicators show our economy is doing badly - compared to the global picture (which is bad itself). There are lots of independent reports that will explain how assets are overvalued, real incomes are declining, child poverty is increasing, productivity is terrible, growth forecast went off a cliff after Brexit, private pensions had 40% of their value taken by QE, austerity is causing deaths, etc
Except our economy is growing. Could it grow faster? Yep. But to say it's doing badly is ridiculous. As was explained earlier, our real incomes have been tremendous over the last few years as we've enjoyed above inflation pay rises each year in the private sector and very low inflation, inflation that at one point was so critically low that the economy almost went into deflation (ask someone from Japan how bad that is...). Now that it's starting to nudge back the other way some people are having a fit because they can't have their cake and eat it any more.
And judging by your last comment about austerity, I'm guessing your a labour voter? In which case, I get that you might not like the tory government. There's not a lot to like about them, they're something of a shower, especially lately. But as angry as you might be about them, you can't seriously argue that the economy is doing badly. Economies in recession are doing badly. Economies that are crawling along with virtually no annual growth are doing badly. Economies that are growing like ours are doing good. Yes it could do better, but if you think our annual growth is "bad", "terrible", or any similar negative then frankly you need to get real. It's like a spoiled child complaining that their pocket money is only going up by 1.5% instead of the 1.7 they'd hoped for. Take the pocket money away and they'd soon see what "bad" looks like.
SilverAlien wrote:A 1500 point army bought direct from GW costs about the same as a mid-high range gaming pc depending on the army in question.
How much is a brand new console now, especially at release? New PS4 with one game seems to come in at over £200. You can get a decent amount of GW product for that price.
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Post by: JohnnyHell
And any of that is on topic... how?
Thanks for clearing up that only scummy people use foodbanks.
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Post by: Lorek
Wow, this is really running off the rails.
Either talk about GeeDub's stock performance or go argue economics in the OT Forum.
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Post by: Baron Klatz
A choose your poison situation if I've ever seen it.
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Post by: bouncingboredom
Lorek wrote:Wow, this is really running off the rails.
Either talk about GeeDub's stock performance or go argue economics in the OT Forum.
I assumed we were trying to establish the approximate baseline state of the UK economy, along with the general affordability of GW miniatures, as these two factors will (along with others) have a big impact on GW sales and as such their stock value?
My argument is that the UK economy is doing ok and that chatter about its imminent demise is mainly driven by people with agendas, predominantly political, and not a rational analysis of the actual state of the economy (which sums up the problem with economics in a nutshell), and as such we should expect decent christmas sales by GW here in the UK. The two factors that might work against them that I'd be more worried about if I was GW would be the reaction to the new Chapter Approved book, which might turn some people off spending until their codex arrives next year, and the fact that it's probably going to be quite a snowy christmas period (starting now) which could hurt retail sales tremendously (for those that don't know, UK infrastructure copes about as well with snow as flak armour does with lascannon hits, though it has been getting a bit better in recent years).
GW stock price already seems to have past its zenith for the year, but the half year figures come out in early January so they shouldn't drop off too far. It will be interesting to watch the price movement till then because it could give us clues about how investors rate the risk of reduced sales due to the wintery weather.
JohnnyHell wrote:And any of that is on topic... how? Thanks for clearing up that only scummy people use foodbanks.
Someone raised those issues as economic indicators, so surely it's correct to assess and respond? I'm also pretty sure I didn't say what your claiming. Let's have a look; " There's some people out there who desperately need the help provided by food banks. The trouble is they're being stigmatised because there's also a hell of a lot of scummy people out there using them who don't need to, but are taking advantage of the free goodies". Emphasis added.
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Post by: EnTyme
Just recently started posting and already defying a mod warning. You'll fit in just fine around here, bb.
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Post by: bouncingboredom
Lol, thanks, but I'm confused now. I thought I had addressed the MOD's specific concern?
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Post by: Alpharius
It doesn't look like it:
Lorek wrote:Wow, this is really running off the rails.
Either talk about GeeDub's stock performance or go argue economics in the OT Forum.
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Post by: AllSeeingSkink
Alpharius wrote:It doesn't look like it:
Lorek wrote:Wow, this is really running off the rails.
Either talk about GeeDub's stock performance or go argue economics in the OT Forum.
So we aren't allowed to argue economics that directly affect GW's stock price, even if we link it back to GW's stock price directly? You guys don't make it easy sometimes I was trying my best to avoid going off on economic tangents that I didn't intend to directly link back to GW's financial health.
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Post by: Dynas
This is what happens when you release new material for almost all the armies in a single year. Whats going to happen afterward is my question.
They have been great with branching out the IP into computer games. Black library expanding the footprint, especially with the Horus Heresy. The next best thing they can do to expand the brand would be an actual movie/TV show. But it would need to be done right, with a hollywood budget.
Not likely to happen anytime soon, but I think its something we will see within the decade. The advancement of computer technology for movies these days is crazy good. (look at Star Wars, GoT, etc...)
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Post by: JohnnyHell
Dynas wrote:This is what happens when you release new material for almost all the armies in a single year. Whats going to happen afterward is my question.
They have been great with branching out the IP into computer games. Black library expanding the footprint, especially with the Horus Heresy. The next best thing they can do to expand the brand would be an actual movie/TV show. But it would need to be done right, with a hollywood budget.
Not likely to happen anytime soon, but I think its something we will see within the decade. The advancement of computer technology for movies these days is crazy good. (look at Star Wars, GoT, etc...)
Ultramarines The Movie 2, coming... well, never.
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Post by: Skinnereal
Dynas wrote:The next best thing they can do to expand the brand would be an actual movie/TV show. But it would need to be done right, with a hollywood budget.
Not likely to happen anytime soon, but I think its something we will see within the decade. The advancement of computer technology for movies these days is crazy good. (look at Star Wars, GoT, etc...)
With the long list of people who are suspected/confirmed as being 40k players, we have a group of actors (and others) who might be up for that straight away. Pay them in GW shares, and they'll be laughing... for a while.
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Post by: Overread
Thing is GW can easily branch out into games because they've not actually got to spend anything. If the computer game fails it has little to no impact on GW model sales; if the game succeeds it boosts GW model sales; and either way they get paid in royalties.
It's low risk, high potential reward.
Plus many of the companies they've signed are either like Relic or CA in that they are already a big name and generally are geeks who want to tell the story without GW having to go nuts controlling their IP/Lore; or they are very small companies that wouldn't push their head up too far changing things.
A movie is a different kettle of fish. First off if GW wants it done right then its a huge cost to invest in and most directors/studios would want to control the movie directly. GW would lose out on controlling their lore and IP very quickly (plus we've seen the mess that Marvel/DC got into with the studios basically forcing them to have to re-write new comic heroes to regain copyright control over them).
If GW went with a smaller studio then we end up with something like their last film they made - lore control but far lower production values and market penetration (to the point where many in this thread already forgot that the movie existed!). Plus smaller group means more chance that GW has to foot a bigger chunk of the production bill - more risk - far less potential reward.
There's also not many directors who I'd consider GW friendly from a lore/asthetics point of view. Honestly I'd say if they could get Tarantino as the director it would be a great match. But I still don't see it happening.
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Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik
Movie is unlikely to happen.
For a start, it's got The Dredd Concern. The setting itself is, and has always been, hyperviolent.
Consider what would happen on-screen to someone hit by a Bolt Round. Or taken down by a Chainsword.
Without utterly gutting the setting, you're looking at an R rating. Whilst perhaps not as toxic as once perceived, that's still limiting not only your target audience, but the merchandising opportunities.
And GW have, traditionally, always wanted to retain control over the merchandising rights (so no McHorus with Emperor fries type 'tie-ins'). That's a bit hurdle for any studio, as the sales of tie-in stuff can make movies far more profitable, as you're not relying solely on box office and home sales.
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Post by: FudgeDumper
Expansion is not always the best solution, that is why earth is fethed. GW is a micro cosmos of this, they need to step back and the players need to stop be like little chicks in the bird nest sitting there with their mouths open and screaming. Of course Its too late for this since GW is run by a bunch of money hungry share holders.
Is there any way to go back to be a private company without going bankrupt? Is it possible to pay of all the share holders and become private again?
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Post by: SilverAlien
FudgeDumper wrote:Expansion is not always the best solution, that is why earth is fethed. GW is a micro cosmos of this, they need to step back and the players need to stop be like little chicks in the bird nest sitting there with their mouths open and screaming. Of course Its too late for this since GW is run by a bunch of money hungry share holders.
Is there any way to go back to be a private company without going bankrupt? Is it possible to pay of all the share holders and become private again?
This is technically possible, but it's absurdly unlikely for multiple reasons and isn't in anyone's interest really so I have no idea why you'd even be hoping for this. It's not like a privately owned business suddenly doesn't care about profitability. It's a company, if it isn't looking to maximize it's going to struggle to expand. You want more models, specialist games, codices, campaigns, etc without compromising quality? Profit goes back into the company to expand these. The fact GW is able to do a major production overhaul/expansion this year is due to their success. The incompetence and shortsightedness of the previous management isn't a symptom of being publicly traded.
Also, I'd argue any revenue stream GW can draw from without investing into will improve or enjoyment of their tabletop product, as they have more overall resources to work with. Video games, comics, novels or whatever all help improve the original games. Well... actually black library is owned by GW directly so that's a bit more ambiguous, but it stands for the other two.
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Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik
Don't worry. He's just trying to be agent provocateur again and failing.
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Post by: Thebiggesthat
118 posts trying to annoy people on a toy soldiers forum
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Post by: Lord Kragan
Plus a few deleted ones...
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Post by: Thebiggesthat
Yet I was subject to a ban because a famous Irish saying wasn't known by a moderator
Anyway, back on topic...
I am really interested where the company goes now. They are at the limits of production, and have recently demonstrated that they have no problem with investing in additional production facilities (buying a dice production outlet after customer backlash). I would assume the purchase of equipment to produce more sprues are thundering along, and they are employing more design artists.
These are all things that give an investor a warm fuzzy feeling. None of the investment is particularly risky, it's all geared to produce more product and therefore profit.
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Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik
Indeed.
Even if demand drops off, having a 'spare' machine likely ensures productivity isn't hampered by routine or emergency maintenance/repairs.
And crucially from an investor's point of view, it's all being done with cash in hand, rather than through borrowing. See, it's when expansion is highly geared that things can go easily wrong, leading to the loans being called in, and thus bankruptcy.
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Post by: N.I.B.
Well done, new GW management. It's almost as if listening to the customer, is a good thing.
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Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik
Only when ultimately filtered through professionals!
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Post by: General Kroll
Skinnereal wrote: Dynas wrote:The next best thing they can do to expand the brand would be an actual movie/TV show. But it would need to be done right, with a hollywood budget.
Not likely to happen anytime soon, but I think its something we will see within the decade. The advancement of computer technology for movies these days is crazy good. (look at Star Wars, GoT, etc...) With the long list of people who are suspected/confirmed as being 40k players, we have a group of actors (and others) who might be up for that straight away. Pay them in GW shares, and they'll be laughing... for a while.
The only one I can think of is Robin Williams. Who else is on the list?
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Post by: zedmeister
Vin Diesel was one fella I seem to remember? Brian May too...
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Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik
Pretty sure the Brian May thing stems from a 90's WD which showed him and his kids being shown round the studio, and it was his kids that were into it?
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Post by: zedmeister
Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:Pretty sure the Brian May thing stems from a 90's WD which showed him and his kids being shown round the studio, and it was his kids that were into it?
Sounds about right. He did a few stints with D'Rok didn't he?
Also, it's rumoured the the late Christopher Lee war gamed. Not sure what with though. Insert jokes about playing Undead and Vampire Counts below...
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Post by: General Kroll
Lol, I’d forgotten about D’Rok
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Post by: zedmeister
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Post by: Dynas
Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:Movie is unlikely to happen.
For a start, it's got The Dredd Concern. The setting itself is, and has always been, hyperviolent.
Consider what would happen on-screen to someone hit by a Bolt Round. Or taken down by a Chainsword.
Without utterly gutting the setting, you're looking at an R rating. Whilst perhaps not as toxic as once perceived, that's still limiting not only your target audience, but the merchandising opportunities.
And GW have, traditionally, always wanted to retain control over the merchandising rights (so no McHorus with Emperor fries type 'tie-ins'). That's a bit hurdle for any studio, as the sales of tie-in stuff can make movies far more profitable, as you're not relying solely on box office and home sales.
It would definitely need to be R. Look at something Like Judge Dread meets star wars, with a splash of starship troopers or terminator or warcraft (depending on who the bad faction would be.)
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Post by: Overread
Fudge you do seriously sound like you need help. Assuming you're not just trolling for kicks and laughs you sound like you really need to get some support in life
Self help groups or the like might be worth looking into for giving you some support. Heck just getting a new hobby or walking or exercise could be a big help to you.
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Post by: Skinnereal
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Post by: ZebioLizard2
Overread wrote:Fudge you do seriously sound like you need help. Assuming you're not just trolling for kicks and laughs you sound like you really need to get some support in life
Self help groups or the like might be worth looking into for giving you some support. Heck just getting a new hobby or walking or exercise could be a big help to you.
Yeah he's been at this for a while. https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/737118.page#9566165
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Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik
Or nobody else actually cares, having far better things to concern themselves with?
I mean, it's not like GW are on the Nestle scale of evil. Not even close.
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Post by: Inquisitor Gideon
FudgeDumper wrote: Overread wrote:Fudge you do seriously sound like you need help. Assuming you're not just trolling for kicks and laughs you sound like you really need to get some support in life
Self help groups or the like might be worth looking into for giving you some support. Heck just getting a new hobby or walking or exercise could be a big help to you.
Thanks for your concerns but I am perfectly insane and i walk and exercise regularly. I might be too sane since it seem I'm the only one who can discern the big companies foul play (or maybe the only one who dare to point them out?).
Now there's a Freudian slip if ever I saw one. But you keep that tinfoil hat on that you've got.
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Post by: reds8n
Don't feed the troll.
ta.
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