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GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 18:06:06


Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik


Well, it’s here.

Well, actually, it’s here. Haha, tricked you. Kind of.

£12,000,000 up on last year is the bottom line. It’s definitely a slowing, but given COVID-19, perhaps too early to say their expansion is absolutely slowing.

I’m posting otherwise without comment, as I’m six pints in, and frankly I’m not smart in the analysis way!

Chapter Master Valrak has a video up on their licensing endeavours, which you can find here ——-> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVdSGFb02Hg


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 18:14:54


Post by: Hulksmash


Huh, up 12 million when they essentially lost an entire quarter and didn't have a system update. Seems solid.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 18:17:06


Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik


Hence the ‘too early to say it’s a definite slowing’


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 18:18:00


Post by: yukishiro1


tl;dr: They made a ton of money, again, in the year to May 30. Dunno that that is going to be news to anybody.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 18:23:22


Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik


It’s....news to their stock holders?


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 18:53:03


Post by: Londinium


yukishiro1 wrote:
tl;dr: They made a ton of money, again, in the year to May 30. Dunno that that is going to be news to anybody.


Given their explosive growth since Rountree came in, the fact they're still increasing profits if at a slower rate is definitely interesting. Especially given they'd have had a weak Q4, when they closed down ~late March 20 for six weeks and future releases were thrown way off.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 19:24:23


Post by: Sqorgar


 Londinium wrote:
Given their explosive growth since Rountree came in, the fact they're still increasing profits if at a slower rate is definitely interesting.
Considering the price increases have caused much of their stock to increase by 50% (or more) in the last year alone, it's possible that they are selling fewer products to fewer customers, but making a larger profit on a per customer basis. If this is true, then they could actually be increasing profits while ultimately losing customers. That would be a terrible long term strategy for the company. Ask the 90s comic book industry.

It's also possible that they are retaining their customers and making more profits off them too, so who knows?


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 19:29:17


Post by: Hulksmash


 Sqorgar wrote:
 Londinium wrote:
Given their explosive growth since Rountree came in, the fact they're still increasing profits if at a slower rate is definitely interesting.
Considering the price increases have caused much of their stock to increase by 50% (or more) in the last year alone, it's possible that they are selling fewer products to fewer customers, but making a larger profit on a per customer basis. If this is true, then they could actually be increasing profits while ultimately losing customers. That would be a terrible long term strategy for the company. Ask the 90s comic book industry.

It's also possible that they are retaining their customers and making more profits off them too, so who knows?


Pretty sure that isn't accurate. Most of the increases on their primary stock were relatively minor overall. I'm not sure 50% even happened on any relevant product. And a lot of those increases came just before the shutdown. So GW didn't even get to benefit from the price hike in a meaningful way. And they lost a quarter of sales and still had their largest income year ever.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 19:43:23


Post by: Galas


 Sqorgar wrote:
 Londinium wrote:
Given their explosive growth since Rountree came in, the fact they're still increasing profits if at a slower rate is definitely interesting.
Considering the price increases have caused much of their stock to increase by 50% (or more) in the last year alone, it's possible that they are selling fewer products to fewer customers, but making a larger profit on a per customer basis. If this is true, then they could actually be increasing profits while ultimately losing customers. That would be a terrible long term strategy for the company. Ask the 90s comic book industry.

It's also possible that they are retaining their customers and making more profits off them too, so who knows?


That was exactly Kirby strategy and we know how it ended. Warhammer has EXPLODED in popularty and awareness in the last three years. I have never seen so much people talking about it, making content of it, on the internet, youtube, in person, etc...


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 19:57:25


Post by: Daedalus81


 Galas wrote:
I have never seen so much people talking about it, making content of it, on the internet, youtube, in person, etc...


Yea it is quite weird to see Warhammer go front page on reddit in non-Warhammer subreddit. There was a guy who engineered this ridiculous Primaris cosplay and I can only imagine the kind of exposure that GW gets from that.




GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 20:00:44


Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik


 Hulksmash wrote:
 Sqorgar wrote:
 Londinium wrote:
Given their explosive growth since Rountree came in, the fact they're still increasing profits if at a slower rate is definitely interesting.
Considering the price increases have caused much of their stock to increase by 50% (or more) in the last year alone, it's possible that they are selling fewer products to fewer customers, but making a larger profit on a per customer basis. If this is true, then they could actually be increasing profits while ultimately losing customers. That would be a terrible long term strategy for the company. Ask the 90s comic book industry.

It's also possible that they are retaining their customers and making more profits off them too, so who knows?


Pretty sure that isn't accurate. Most of the increases on their primary stock were relatively minor overall. I'm not sure 50% even happened on any relevant product. And a lot of those increases came just before the shutdown. So GW didn't even get to benefit from the price hike in a meaningful way. And they lost a quarter of sales and still had their largest income year ever.


Yeah, Sqorgar needs to present evidence for that statement.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 20:22:19


Post by: endlesswaltz123


 Daedalus81 wrote:
 Galas wrote:
I have never seen so much people talking about it, making content of it, on the internet, youtube, in person, etc...


Yea it is quite weird to see Warhammer go front page on reddit in non-Warhammer subreddit. There was a guy who engineered this ridiculous Primaris cosplay and I can only imagine the kind of exposure that GW gets from that.




I have SOOOO many questions about this suit. Going to go look on reddit to see if some have answered it.

My main one is what is this guys heigh, because if he is actually that tall, it would totally make sense that his arms were that long, otherwise yeah, he has the most insane arm reach in human history if he is just an average height guy, or the hands on the suit are a working extension to his hands which are roughly elbow height.

Mind blown.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 20:26:20


Post by: Sqorgar


 Hulksmash wrote:
Pretty sure that isn't accurate. Most of the increases on their primary stock were relatively minor overall. I'm not sure 50% even happened on any relevant product. And a lot of those increases came just before the shutdown. So GW didn't even get to benefit from the price hike in a meaningful way. And they lost a quarter of sales and still had their largest income year ever.
GW makes its money primarily on new releases (many of which sell out and never get reprinted, ever), and from about October to December, the number of new releases and price increases were really getting to absurd levels (anyone remember the $240 Blood of the Phoenix box or the $290 Necromunda starter? I think they were a few weeks apart, not including the Sisters of Battle pre-launch set, Xmas bundles, Annuals for everything, and even launching Aeronatuica Imperialis in that same window - it was some huge new release every week). I think they made a crap ton of cash during that quarter, but I think they blew their load too soon, and early 2020 was much lighter in releases and exciting products even before COVID happened. It probably would've been filler releases during this time as they built up to 9th edition anyway.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 20:37:04


Post by: Hulksmash


Those goal posts heavy? That doesnt support your initial statement at all.

Outside of admech most of their new releases have stayed in the same window on new units for the last year.

Also i call bs on filler releases. We had a full aos army and a massive admech update that should have launched in that quarter window. We had 4 books that should have released and pushed sales of other product during that block. The books basically breathing new life into different armies gw had already made their wad on. Amd gw couldnt restock during that time because of the shut down.

Hell, we're still in a massive meta shut down which does drive a lot of sales. GW showing a solid profit when people knew 9th was coming after losing an entire quarter and building a new factory is solid.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 21:23:19


Post by: Hollow


 Sqorgar wrote:
 Londinium wrote:
Given their explosive growth since Rountree came in, the fact they're still increasing profits if at a slower rate is definitely interesting.
Considering the price increases have caused much of their stock to increase by 50% (or more) in the last year alone, it's possible that they are selling fewer products to fewer customers, but making a larger profit on a per customer basis. If this is true, then they could actually be increasing profits while ultimately losing customers. That would be a terrible long term strategy for the company. Ask the 90s comic book industry.

It's also possible that they are retaining their customers and making more profits off them too, so who knows?



This exact point is as old as GW itself. I remember the heated arguments in my local GW gaming club back in the 90's. The pages upon pages of "analysis" on Warseer and other forums over the years. All claiming that GW was running themselves into the ground. GW is doing unbelievably well, I don't think anybody (myself included) would have thought they would have come so far. I'm really curious as to what the next few years will bring, there are several opportunities currently being explored, if done well, could be massive for the company. The main one being getting their customers over onto a subscription model. I wonder how many people (eventually down the line once they have got their ducks in a row) would be willing to spend 4 quid a month to access a massive amount of information. Imagine a £4:00 pm subscription that gave you digital access to all the codexs and editions that there have ever been. All the old Warhammer Fantasy books. ETC. GW has a massive amount of material they could charge for that is essentially sitting unused.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 21:28:26


Post by: Sqorgar


 Hulksmash wrote:
Those goal posts heavy? That doesnt support your initial statement at all.
Huh? My initial statement was that with the significant price increases, it is possible they are making more profit off fewer fans. And then I said, it is also possible that they are not losing fans too. Pretty sure I covered the concept of speculation by saying "it's possible", "if this is true", "could actually", "it's also possible", and "so who knows?". I honestly don't know, but I do know that when a company goes after whales, it will increase the profits in the short term, while destroying the fan base in the long one. And it feels to me that GW is probably going down that path.

For me, personally, the deluge of major releases in the end of 2019 led to significant burnout. The price increases and increased number of releases just made it impossible to play more than one GW game at a time. Like, if you play Warcry and Necromunda, they put both releases in a single month with about $600 worth of stuffy to buy. You don't have to get all of it - but you might want to and it is frustrating when you can't (especially when things go out of print immediately, like cards, terrain, and so on - the models will stick around, but nothing else will). 40k will always be the 800 pound gorilla, but all the other GW games are cannibalizing each other's playerbase. Necromunda isn't competing with Frostgrave or Infinity, it is competing with Warcry and Kill Team. AoS isn't competing against Warmachine or Legion, it is competing against 40k. Instead of having a GW customer who might buy anything GW puts out, they have a 40k customer, an AoS customer, a Warcry customer, and so on...and I think they know they and have been increasing the prices and number of supplementary releases for their different game lines to compensate.

Also i call bs on filler releases. We had a full aos army and a massive admech update that should have launched in that quarter window. We had 4 books that should have released and pushed sales of other product during that block. The books basically breathing new life into different armies gw had already made their wad on. Amd gw couldnt restock during that time because of the shut down.
Maybe filler was the wrong word for it. I meant more like perfunctory releases. For instance, Necromunda would've had a release during that time which would've been the predictable book, model kit, and strategy card pack. Adeptus Titanicus would've got a new model kit and a book (just did, if I'm not mistaken). Warcry probably would've got a new warband box and probably a new book. The campaign for 40k would've got a new model or two per book release. With 40k 9th edition coming up, they would've spent the majority of their energy building up to that release, both in production and in hype, and been somewhat bland in most of their other releases.

The Lumineth army would've been a big release, though I think their pre-launch set (similar to the Sisters of Battle set) was really where the majority of their sales were going to come from - and they got that out in time for this reporting period.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 21:29:43


Post by: BrotherGecko


 Daedalus81 wrote:
 Galas wrote:
I have never seen so much people talking about it, making content of it, on the internet, youtube, in person, etc...


Yea it is quite weird to see Warhammer go front page on reddit in non-Warhammer subreddit. There was a guy who engineered this ridiculous Primaris cosplay and I can only imagine the kind of exposure that GW gets from that.




There is a depressing amount of "shouldn't he have been a white scar?" in the comments to that video. :(


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 21:38:41


Post by: macluvin


 Hollow wrote:
 Sqorgar wrote:
 Londinium wrote:
Given their explosive growth since Rountree came in, the fact they're still increasing profits if at a slower rate is definitely interesting.
Considering the price increases have caused much of their stock to increase by 50% (or more) in the last year alone, it's possible that they are selling fewer products to fewer customers, but making a larger profit on a per customer basis. If this is true, then they could actually be increasing profits while ultimately losing customers. That would be a terrible long term strategy for the company. Ask the 90s comic book industry.

It's also possible that they are retaining their customers and making more profits off them too, so who knows?



This exact point is as old as GW itself. I remember the heated arguments in my local GW gaming club back in the 90's. The pages upon pages of "analysis" on Warseer and other forums over the years. All claiming that GW was running themselves into the ground. GW is doing unbelievably well, I don't think anybody (myself included) would have thought they would have come so far. I'm really curious as to what the next few years will bring, there are several opportunities currently being explored, if done well, could be massive for the company. The main one being getting their customers over onto a subscription model. I wonder how many people (eventually down the line once they have got their ducks in a row) would be willing to spend 4 quid a month to access a massive amount of information. Imagine a £4:00 pm subscription that gave you digital access to all the codexs and editions that there have ever been. All the old Warhammer Fantasy books. ETC. GW has a massive amount of material they could charge for that is essentially sitting unused.


You mean 4 quid a month plus the codex costs and supplement costs... you have to buy those to unlock them in the app. And you know how the share holders and execs get with the mere mention of not charging money or reducing costs on things they were charging for...


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 21:45:42


Post by: Marxist artist


 BrotherGecko wrote:
 Daedalus81 wrote:
 Galas wrote:
I have never seen so much people talking about it, making content of it, on the internet, youtube, in person, etc...


Yea it is quite weird to see Warhammer go front page on reddit in non-Warhammer subreddit. There was a guy who engineered this ridiculous Primaris cosplay and I can only imagine the kind of exposure that GW gets from that.




There is a depressing amount of "shouldn't he have been a white scar?" in the comments to that video. :(


Good to see racism isn't dead then.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 22:21:17


Post by: Hollow


macluvin wrote:
You mean 4 quid a month plus the codex costs and supplement costs... you have to buy those to unlock them in the app. And you know how the share holders and execs get with the mere mention of not charging money or reducing costs on things they were charging for...


At the moment, yes, but I wouldn't be surprised if GW is looking at 9th as a kind of transition from codex based rules to digital-based rules. It would allow GW to publish books focusing on expanding the Universe and lore without them being tied to the rules.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 22:31:13


Post by: H.B.M.C.


 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
£12,000,000 up on last year is the bottom line.
They should celebrate by raising the prices again.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 22:43:20


Post by: chaos0xomega


 Hollow wrote:
macluvin wrote:
You mean 4 quid a month plus the codex costs and supplement costs... you have to buy those to unlock them in the app. And you know how the share holders and execs get with the mere mention of not charging money or reducing costs on things they were charging for...


At the moment, yes, but I wouldn't be surprised if GW is looking at 9th as a kind of transition from codex based rules to digital-based rules. It would allow GW to publish books focusing on expanding the Universe and lore without them being tied to the rules.


Privateer Press tried this. Did not work. It disconnected the game from the fluff entirely and the casual/narrative community moved on to other games while the competitive community ran the game into the ground.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 22:44:03


Post by: McMagnus Mindbullets


Great news. Stock is so damn high right now I'm almost considering selling. Pushing 10000p a pop!

Kind of crazy just how well they've done out of lockdown.




Automatically Appended Next Post:
 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
It’s....news to their stock holders?


^


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/28 23:43:03


Post by: BrianDavion


chaos0xomega wrote:
 Hollow wrote:
macluvin wrote:
You mean 4 quid a month plus the codex costs and supplement costs... you have to buy those to unlock them in the app. And you know how the share holders and execs get with the mere mention of not charging money or reducing costs on things they were charging for...


At the moment, yes, but I wouldn't be surprised if GW is looking at 9th as a kind of transition from codex based rules to digital-based rules. It would allow GW to publish books focusing on expanding the Universe and lore without them being tied to the rules.


Privateer Press tried this. Did not work. It disconnected the game from the fluff entirely and the casual/narrative community moved on to other games while the competitive community ran the game into the ground.


IMHO they'd be better off doing a hybrid system. sell the books, but simply give digtal keys to people with the books. other companies do it and it's pretty popular, some people like the physical product


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 00:27:41


Post by: Dr. What


BrianDavion wrote:
chaos0xomega wrote:
 Hollow wrote:
macluvin wrote:
You mean 4 quid a month plus the codex costs and supplement costs... you have to buy those to unlock them in the app. And you know how the share holders and execs get with the mere mention of not charging money or reducing costs on things they were charging for...


At the moment, yes, but I wouldn't be surprised if GW is looking at 9th as a kind of transition from codex based rules to digital-based rules. It would allow GW to publish books focusing on expanding the Universe and lore without them being tied to the rules.


Privateer Press tried this. Did not work. It disconnected the game from the fluff entirely and the casual/narrative community moved on to other games while the competitive community ran the game into the ground.


IMHO they'd be better off doing a hybrid system. sell the books, but simply give digtal keys to people with the books. other companies do it and it's pretty popular, some people like the physical product


This is what GW announced they'd be doing. However, that still apparently requires a subscription to the app to read the digital text (which is really dumb if true).


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 00:30:38


Post by: Platuan4th


BrianDavion wrote:
chaos0xomega wrote:
 Hollow wrote:
macluvin wrote:
You mean 4 quid a month plus the codex costs and supplement costs... you have to buy those to unlock them in the app. And you know how the share holders and execs get with the mere mention of not charging money or reducing costs on things they were charging for...


At the moment, yes, but I wouldn't be surprised if GW is looking at 9th as a kind of transition from codex based rules to digital-based rules. It would allow GW to publish books focusing on expanding the Universe and lore without them being tied to the rules.


Privateer Press tried this. Did not work. It disconnected the game from the fluff entirely and the casual/narrative community moved on to other games while the competitive community ran the game into the ground.


IMHO they'd be better off doing a hybrid system. sell the books, but simply give digtal keys to people with the books. other companies do it and it's pretty popular, some people like the physical product


They ARE doing that in 9th. Every upcoming Codex includes a code to unlock in the App.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 00:35:02


Post by: Kanluwen


 Dr. What wrote:

This is what GW announced they'd be doing. However, that still apparently requires a subscription to the app to read the digital text (which is really dumb if true).

Go read the article that they posted, which has an image, rather than going off secondhand stuff.

No, you do not need a subscription to view the digital text if you have a key/purchase it.

Right here.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 01:06:06


Post by: Togusa


 Hollow wrote:
 Sqorgar wrote:
 Londinium wrote:
Given their explosive growth since Rountree came in, the fact they're still increasing profits if at a slower rate is definitely interesting.
Considering the price increases have caused much of their stock to increase by 50% (or more) in the last year alone, it's possible that they are selling fewer products to fewer customers, but making a larger profit on a per customer basis. If this is true, then they could actually be increasing profits while ultimately losing customers. That would be a terrible long term strategy for the company. Ask the 90s comic book industry.

It's also possible that they are retaining their customers and making more profits off them too, so who knows?



This exact point is as old as GW itself. I remember the heated arguments in my local GW gaming club back in the 90's. The pages upon pages of "analysis" on Warseer and other forums over the years. All claiming that GW was running themselves into the ground. GW is doing unbelievably well, I don't think anybody (myself included) would have thought they would have come so far. I'm really curious as to what the next few years will bring, there are several opportunities currently being explored, if done well, could be massive for the company. The main one being getting their customers over onto a subscription model. I wonder how many people (eventually down the line once they have got their ducks in a row) would be willing to spend 4 quid a month to access a massive amount of information. Imagine a £4:00 pm subscription that gave you digital access to all the codexs and editions that there have ever been. All the old Warhammer Fantasy books. ETC. GW has a massive amount of material they could charge for that is essentially sitting unused.


Can I just say that I firmly believe Roundtree is playing the long game with the company.

5-10 years down the road, not a single person will remember fights over too many marine releases or what not. All the factions will be in full plastic, and all the old models relics in some 45 year old's collection he shows off to the children of fortnite players when he talks about the "golden age" of GW. Imagine what the game and the models will be like then? It's really an interesting thing.

You know, I wonder what the future holds now for FW?


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 McMagnus Mindbullets wrote:
Great news. Stock is so damn high right now I'm almost considering selling. Pushing 10000p a pop!

Kind of crazy just how well they've done out of lockdown.




Automatically Appended Next Post:
 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
It’s....news to their stock holders?


^


I'm not sure how other geographic areas did, but in my area a lot of people who were able to work from home, just stopped spending. Yesterday our FLGS owner revealed to me that one of the regulars, who he hadn't seen in three months came in and dropped nearly 7 thousand dollars in the store across Magic, D&D, 40K and AoS and Nolzurs miniatures. Quite extreme, but damn if it didn't put a smile on the owners face!


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 01:38:00


Post by: angel of death 007


 H.B.M.C. wrote:
 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
£12,000,000 up on last year is the bottom line.
They should celebrate by raising the prices again.


Give them time there is a lot of time between now and Christmas and if something like raising prices works they will just keep doing it. Do what works. GW is great at raising prices.

I can't see them going away from codexes entirely, it is their bread and butter. Having more books then an average college kid to play one army has been the way for years. I can't see that changing reguardless of an app.

They need a way to keep hobbyists in shape I mean they can't get a work out from lifting their empty wallets now can they?


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 02:22:49


Post by: Daedalus81


endlesswaltz123 wrote:


I have SOOOO many questions about this suit. Going to go look on reddit to see if some have answered it.

My main one is what is this guys heigh, because if he is actually that tall, it would totally make sense that his arms were that long, otherwise yeah, he has the most insane arm reach in human history if he is just an average height guy, or the hands on the suit are a working extension to his hands which are roughly elbow height.

Mind blown.


No fortunately he is not that tall. The drywall stilts help.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 03:26:06


Post by: animal310


 Sqorgar wrote:
 Londinium wrote:
Given their explosive growth since Rountree came in, the fact they're still increasing profits if at a slower rate is definitely interesting.
Considering the price increases have caused much of their stock to increase by 50% (or more) in the last year alone, it's possible that they are selling fewer products to fewer customers, but making a larger profit on a per customer basis. If this is true, then they could actually be increasing profits while ultimately losing customers. That would be a terrible long term strategy for the company. Ask the 90s comic book industry.

It's also possible that they are retaining their customers and making more profits off them too, so who knows?


A company whose share price has increased almost twenty fold in four years from £4.51 per share in July 2016 to £87.05 per share now is not on its way out.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 03:38:56


Post by: macluvin


animal310 wrote:
 Sqorgar wrote:
 Londinium wrote:
Given their explosive growth since Rountree came in, the fact they're still increasing profits if at a slower rate is definitely interesting.
Considering the price increases have caused much of their stock to increase by 50% (or more) in the last year alone, it's possible that they are selling fewer products to fewer customers, but making a larger profit on a per customer basis. If this is true, then they could actually be increasing profits while ultimately losing customers. That would be a terrible long term strategy for the company. Ask the 90s comic book industry.

It's also possible that they are retaining their customers and making more profits off them too, so who knows?


A company whose share price has increased almost twenty fold in four years from £4.51 per share in July 2016 to £87.05 per share now is not on its way out.


To be fair our stock market spiked after a coronavirus stimulus bill granted retroactive tax exemptions by removing caps on last years taxes for certain things. Basically the rich and a bunch of companies got a hidden stimulus check and that caused our stock market to rise erratically. Moral of the story is that the stock prices are solely based on how well investors think companies are going to do and they all knew that our biggest companies were getting fat stimulus checks.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 03:50:44


Post by: animal310


macluvin wrote:
animal310 wrote:
 Sqorgar wrote:
 Londinium wrote:
Given their explosive growth since Rountree came in, the fact they're still increasing profits if at a slower rate is definitely interesting.
Considering the price increases have caused much of their stock to increase by 50% (or more) in the last year alone, it's possible that they are selling fewer products to fewer customers, but making a larger profit on a per customer basis. If this is true, then they could actually be increasing profits while ultimately losing customers. That would be a terrible long term strategy for the company. Ask the 90s comic book industry.

It's also possible that they are retaining their customers and making more profits off them too, so who knows?


A company whose share price has increased almost twenty fold in four years from £4.51 per share in July 2016 to £87.05 per share now is not on its way out.


To be fair our stock market spiked after a coronavirus stimulus bill granted retroactive tax exemptions by removing caps on last years taxes for certain things. Basically the rich and a bunch of companies got a hidden stimulus check and that caused our stock market to rise erratically. Moral of the story is that the stock prices are solely based on how well investors think companies are going to do and they all knew that our biggest companies were getting fat stimulus checks.


The US stock market has not jumped 2000 percent in the last four years. GW is a British company. Most of GW share price increase happened before any covid related stimulus (which GW are repaying to UK gov anyway).

The share price is based on how well investors think companies are going to do and investors think GW is going to continue to do very well as its in great shape. It has nothing to do with ‘stimulus checks’.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 03:51:29


Post by: Chopstick


 H.B.M.C. wrote:
 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
£12,000,000 up on last year is the bottom line.
They should celebrate by raising the prices again.


Expecting new price for unit and box set. 65/70$ US$ infantry box. 230$+ box set. Great news for them, not so great news on the consumers.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 06:14:37


Post by: macluvin


animal310 wrote:
macluvin wrote:
animal310 wrote:
 Sqorgar wrote:
 Londinium wrote:
Given their explosive growth since Rountree came in, the fact they're still increasing profits if at a slower rate is definitely interesting.
Considering the price increases have caused much of their stock to increase by 50% (or more) in the last year alone, it's possible that they are selling fewer products to fewer customers, but making a larger profit on a per customer basis. If this is true, then they could actually be increasing profits while ultimately losing customers. That would be a terrible long term strategy for the company. Ask the 90s comic book industry.

It's also possible that they are retaining their customers and making more profits off them too, so who knows?


A company whose share price has increased almost twenty fold in four years from £4.51 per share in July 2016 to £87.05 per share now is not on its way out.


To be fair our stock market spiked after a coronavirus stimulus bill granted retroactive tax exemptions by removing caps on last years taxes for certain things. Basically the rich and a bunch of companies got a hidden stimulus check and that caused our stock market to rise erratically. Moral of the story is that the stock prices are solely based on how well investors think companies are going to do and they all knew that our biggest companies were getting fat stimulus checks.


The US stock market has not jumped 2000 percent in the last four years. GW is a British company. Most of GW share price increase happened before any covid related stimulus (which GW are repaying to UK gov anyway).

The share price is based on how well investors think companies are going to do and investors think GW is going to continue to do very well as its in great shape. It has nothing to do with ‘stimulus checks’.


That’s what I said... how well investors think the company will do. Not how good it actually is.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 06:31:55


Post by: tneva82


BrianDavion wrote:
chaos0xomega wrote:
 Hollow wrote:
macluvin wrote:
You mean 4 quid a month plus the codex costs and supplement costs... you have to buy those to unlock them in the app. And you know how the share holders and execs get with the mere mention of not charging money or reducing costs on things they were charging for...


At the moment, yes, but I wouldn't be surprised if GW is looking at 9th as a kind of transition from codex based rules to digital-based rules. It would allow GW to publish books focusing on expanding the Universe and lore without them being tied to the rules.


Privateer Press tried this. Did not work. It disconnected the game from the fluff entirely and the casual/narrative community moved on to other games while the competitive community ran the game into the ground.


IMHO they'd be better off doing a hybrid system. sell the books, but simply give digtal keys to people with the books. other companies do it and it's pretty popular, some people like the physical product


Funny that. It's what they are doing with 9th.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 06:38:16


Post by: kodos


tneva82 wrote:

Funny that. It's what they are doing with 9th.


at least GW learns from mistakes other companies have made......


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 06:44:39


Post by: stratigo


 Hollow wrote:
 Sqorgar wrote:
 Londinium wrote:
Given their explosive growth since Rountree came in, the fact they're still increasing profits if at a slower rate is definitely interesting.
Considering the price increases have caused much of their stock to increase by 50% (or more) in the last year alone, it's possible that they are selling fewer products to fewer customers, but making a larger profit on a per customer basis. If this is true, then they could actually be increasing profits while ultimately losing customers. That would be a terrible long term strategy for the company. Ask the 90s comic book industry.

It's also possible that they are retaining their customers and making more profits off them too, so who knows?



This exact point is as old as GW itself. I remember the heated arguments in my local GW gaming club back in the 90's. The pages upon pages of "analysis" on Warseer and other forums over the years. All claiming that GW was running themselves into the ground. GW is doing unbelievably well, I don't think anybody (myself included) would have thought they would have come so far. I'm really curious as to what the next few years will bring, there are several opportunities currently being explored, if done well, could be massive for the company. The main one being getting their customers over onto a subscription model. I wonder how many people (eventually down the line once they have got their ducks in a row) would be willing to spend 4 quid a month to access a massive amount of information. Imagine a £4:00 pm subscription that gave you digital access to all the codexs and editions that there have ever been. All the old Warhammer Fantasy books. ETC. GW has a massive amount of material they could charge for that is essentially sitting unused.


I mean, GW's financials were a bit of a mess in the 90s. Kirby and the guys he brought in, ironically, are what righted the ship. Cause he was a businessman who knew business, just not the market he was in.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 06:45:36


Post by: AduroT


chaos0xomega wrote:
 Hollow wrote:
macluvin wrote:
You mean 4 quid a month plus the codex costs and supplement costs... you have to buy those to unlock them in the app. And you know how the share holders and execs get with the mere mention of not charging money or reducing costs on things they were charging for...


At the moment, yes, but I wouldn't be surprised if GW is looking at 9th as a kind of transition from codex based rules to digital-based rules. It would allow GW to publish books focusing on expanding the Universe and lore without them being tied to the rules.


Privateer Press tried this. Did not work. It disconnected the game from the fluff entirely and the casual/narrative community moved on to other games while the competitive community ran the game into the ground.


God I hated that too. Used to be you got the Rulebook and it would have point of view stories for all the factions in it that advanced the story nicely. Then they stopped doing the rulebooks, and the fluff was done thru novels, which of course were always cygnar/protagonist POV, so my main faction of Cryx just didn’t get good fluff advancement anymore. Now it’s spread out thru novels and campaign packs and twitter and I’ve completely lost track of the narrative.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 06:47:15


Post by: stratigo


macluvin wrote:
animal310 wrote:
 Sqorgar wrote:
 Londinium wrote:
Given their explosive growth since Rountree came in, the fact they're still increasing profits if at a slower rate is definitely interesting.
Considering the price increases have caused much of their stock to increase by 50% (or more) in the last year alone, it's possible that they are selling fewer products to fewer customers, but making a larger profit on a per customer basis. If this is true, then they could actually be increasing profits while ultimately losing customers. That would be a terrible long term strategy for the company. Ask the 90s comic book industry.

It's also possible that they are retaining their customers and making more profits off them too, so who knows?


A company whose share price has increased almost twenty fold in four years from £4.51 per share in July 2016 to £87.05 per share now is not on its way out.


To be fair our stock market spiked after a coronavirus stimulus bill granted retroactive tax exemptions by removing caps on last years taxes for certain things. Basically the rich and a bunch of companies got a hidden stimulus check and that caused our stock market to rise erratically. Moral of the story is that the stock prices are solely based on how well investors think companies are going to do and they all knew that our biggest companies were getting fat stimulus checks.


a lot of the stock market right now is a holding pattern for people's money because demand has dropped dramatically under covid, people aren't spending, and stocks are a place to put money you aren't actively using.

This isn't reflective of demand for GW, though I do imagine it has buoyed its stocks along with literally almost everyone else's.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 07:06:35


Post by: Gimgamgoo


Ah... the bi-annual thread where GW fans bow down in awe to the money GW have made, proclaiming them godlike. Before going off to another thread to complain about ridiculous pricing.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 07:20:20


Post by: stratigo


Being moral and being profitable seem to be mutually opposed, yes.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 07:47:52


Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik


Interesting breakdown as to sales by channel.

GW Stores generated 29% of sales. Third Party sales accounted for 52%, and GW’s online 19%

Their store sales are down 5% from 2019, and seem to have gone to FLGS, as that’s up 5% from 2019.

Go FLGS, I guess!


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 07:51:27


Post by: macluvin


FLGS seem to sell product at 10-15% off. Plus they look like better venues to play games and since they tend to be smaller, it feels more... honest? To give them the GW money instead of straight to GW. I went out of my way to find an LGS where I live to buy a defiler... took quite a bit of calling around to find.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 07:57:46


Post by: BrianDavion


it was likely too late to make much differance but I know GW stores also stayed closed longer then a LOT of other stores here. I ended up doing more busniess with third party stores during the last month or two then I'd previously done (the local GW is more conveniant to my house)


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 08:04:09


Post by: tneva82


macluvin wrote:
FLGS seem to sell product at 10-15% off. Plus they look like better venues to play games and since they tend to be smaller, it feels more... honest? To give them the GW money instead of straight to GW. I went out of my way to find an LGS where I live to buy a defiler... took quite a bit of calling around to find.


Yeh. The gaming area is big one for me why I buy from FLGS. I use their gaming area so might just as well support. If not I would have no right to complain if they close and I lose like 95% chance of games!

From GW direct I basically order only mail order stuff if I'm in a hurry.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 08:25:58


Post by: Turnip Jedi


 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Interesting breakdown as to sales by channel.

GW Stores generated 29% of sales. Third Party sales accounted for 52%, and GW’s online 19%

Their store sales are down 5% from 2019, and seem to have gone to FLGS, as that’s up 5% from 2019.

Go FLGS, I guess!


still a bit baffled by online remaining that high as besides GW only items the vast number of other online retailers offering cheaper deals it really baffles me as to who goes GW direct

Ill be curious to see if the FLGS trend continues post Event as these numbers show GW will survive but without player support smaller concerns may not


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 08:30:14


Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik


It’ll include Forgeworld I’d imagine, so there’s a decent chunk.

Plus, there are some bits and bobs you can only order through GW direct - though it’s not clear if in-store web orders (the virtual warehouse) would count as online or store.

And yeah, the 5% shift between GW and FLGS is quite likely down to COVID-19 and that. I do hope FLGS make it through, as they’re important to a healthy community.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 08:38:24


Post by: Turnip Jedi


 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
It’ll include Forgeworld I’d imagine, so there’s a decent chunk.

Plus, there are some bits and bobs you can only order through GW direct - though it’s not clear if in-store web orders (the virtual warehouse) would count as online or store.

And yeah, the 5% shift between GW and FLGS is quite likely down to COVID-19 and that. I do hope FLGS make it through, as they’re important to a healthy community.


I think as best I recall from my local GW chap any stuff ordered via the in-store terminal counts as a sale for his store

Had sort of forgot about FW as they clearly dont want my money as they dont sell the alt Wave Serpent turrets anymore


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 08:47:03


Post by: OPULENCE


 Turnip Jedi wrote:


I think as best I recall from my local GW chap any stuff ordered via the in-store terminal counts as a sale for his store



Yeah my GW local manager has said the same with the exception that ForgeWorld ordered in store does not count towards his sales so although he allows it he doesn't encourage FW in store.

I would imagine the made to order will have contributed to online sales as well as I have picked up quite a few metal models that they reissued through it.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 10:21:56


Post by: Arbitrator


 Hulksmash wrote:
Huh, up 12 million when they essentially lost an entire quarter and didn't have a system update. Seems solid.

Did they though? (Generally) middle-class nerds shut-in for three months with nothing to do coupled with abysmal impulse control led to pretty much every kit/paint they had selling out.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 10:23:59


Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik


Report says the lost 6 weeks worth, so more an eighth or so?


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 10:30:16


Post by: Arbitrator


 Turnip Jedi wrote:

still a bit baffled by online remaining that high as besides GW only items the vast number of other online retailers offering cheaper deals it really baffles me as to who goes GW direct

Ill be curious to see if the FLGS trend continues post Event as these numbers show GW will survive but without player support smaller concerns may not

It's ignorance mostly. You'd be very surprised at how many people don't know about independent retailers. I don't think it helps that places like Amazon and other 'big name' sites don't really sell product any cheaper than the webstore (if they have it at all), so a sizeable chunk of people don't bother looking elsewhere. I think it's a mixture of younger players who're new to the hobby who aren't quite savvy enough yet to look for cheaper prices when they're getting it off their parents credit card, but I've also seen some genuine diehards who buy direct to 'support the company' as if those independents with slim margins don't need it more.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 10:36:20


Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik


There’s also stock differences between Indies and GW.

I tend to buy from Element, but if they don’t have it in stock, I’ll look around, and may eventually order direct from GW.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 10:38:25


Post by: beast_gts


 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
There’s also stock differences between Indies and GW.

I tend to buy from Element, but if they don’t have it in stock, I’ll look around, and may eventually order direct from GW.


And that works both ways - a store near me has stuff on its shelves that the GW store doesn't (Necromunda & Blood Bowl mainly).


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 10:43:04


Post by: tneva82


 Arbitrator wrote:
 Hulksmash wrote:
Huh, up 12 million when they essentially lost an entire quarter and didn't have a system update. Seems solid.

Did they though? (Generally) middle-class nerds shut-in for three months with nothing to do coupled with abysmal impulse control led to pretty much every kit/paint they had selling out.


They lost very end of march, april and may. And yes people bought stuff they could but GW was shut down and didn't sell. Does already stocked items in FLGS selling count for that period? Or would those cause spike in post-lockdown time sales?


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 10:44:17


Post by: OrlandotheTechnicoloured


People are also far more likely to have a bad experience when ordering from an independent compared with ordering from GW

and if your first order goes wrong your far more likely to stick to GW only afterwards


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 10:44:43


Post by: tneva82


 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
There’s also stock differences between Indies and GW.

I tend to buy from Element, but if they don’t have it in stock, I’ll look around, and may eventually order direct from GW.


That too.

ATM I don't care if it's local FLGS, store in UK, store in america or ANYWHERE but if store has triach stalker at RPP I don't care whom I buy it from. I just want 2-3 stalkers! Or even one!


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 10:47:22


Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik


Planning a good scuttle?


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 10:54:35


Post by: Arbitrator


 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
There’s also stock differences between Indies and GW.

I tend to buy from Element, but if they don’t have it in stock, I’ll look around, and may eventually order direct from GW.

Do people really need product so urgently they'll buy it at a GW markup though? I understand when it comes to independent games (especially anything supplied by Ass-mode) sometimes you have to bite the bullet and buy more expensive or else potentially never see it for a year, but there's usually no more than just under a week's wait - at worst - for restocks of GW product.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 11:10:52


Post by: smurfORnot


Why ain't you becoming shareholders? Seems stock price has been on the rise for years...?


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 12:04:16


Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik


Sods Law.

If I buy now, it’ll be downhill all the way, guaranteed.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 13:07:19


Post by: MaxT


 Arbitrator wrote:
 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
There’s also stock differences between Indies and GW.

I tend to buy from Element, but if they don’t have it in stock, I’ll look around, and may eventually order direct from GW.

Do people really need product so urgently they'll buy it at a GW markup though? I understand when it comes to independent games (especially anything supplied by Ass-mode) sometimes you have to bite the bullet and buy more expensive or else potentially never see it for a year, but there's usually no more than just under a week's wait - at worst - for restocks of GW product.


Sure it can happen. Hobby stuff to finish an in progress project, an upcoming gaming session or event you want them for, last minute purchase for a present (i've been there!) etc.

Also for online stuff, different stores/companies have different levels where they give out free shipping. If you just want something specific, and it hits certain cost bands, GW online + free shipping is equivalent to FLGS10% off + a few quid shipping. Or at least so close as to not care.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 13:20:05


Post by: Ragnar69


Most German stores sell at normal retail and I know only 2 German online sellers that offer discounts and they only offer free postage if you order in the tripple digits. So not buying from GW directly does not automatically mean paying less


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 14:18:38


Post by: Coenus Scaldingus


Ragnar69 wrote:
Most German stores sell at normal retail and I know only 2 German online sellers that offer discounts and they only offer free postage if you order in the tripple digits. So not buying from GW directly does not automatically mean paying less
Precisely; the only stores in mainland Europe I've encountered so far that offer "discounts" on GW produts are those that simply haven't bothered to increase the prices after a certain price increase, and once a big discount due to the store's anniversary. No standard 10-20% off. And with that being the case, I imagine many people won't look online for, say, the webstore of a British independent store that might offer a discount (plus favourable exchange rate) either.

Of course, when time is of the essence a local store with stock will in fact typically be favourable in these places as ordering directly from GW means the parcel has to come all the way from the UK (at least in the European countries I've lived in so far).

As for why else you would order from them, I wonder what proportion of their sales are generated from Made-to-Order, online exclusives or indeed Last Chance to Buy products. Plus sales generated from ordering any of the aforementioned and adding in extra products due to the free shipping threshold etc. Not a massive percentage perhaps, but still a factor.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 14:45:41


Post by: alphaecho


 smurfORnot wrote:
Why ain't you becoming shareholders? Seems stock price has been on the rise for years...?



Therefore the time to have gambled with share buying would have been years ago just prior to Kirby departing.

Hindsight is wonderful.

The UK FInancial Times had a piece on GW today where an analyst from Jeffries (I'm not into shares and such so I have no idea what their credibility is) suggested turn over may have exceeded £100 million this year if not for Covid-19.

The Editor of Wargames Illustrated has a feature on the pandemic in issue 392. Some firms like Empress, Baccus6mm and Pulp Figures did quite well whereas Gripping Beast and Warlord Games suffered from the lack of retail not covering an increase in Mail Order.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 15:13:08


Post by: Sqorgar


animal310 wrote:
A company whose share price has increased almost twenty fold in four years from £4.51 per share in July 2016 to £87.05 per share now is not on its way out.
And people thought Disney buying Star Wars was the best decision ever too.

I don't think Games Workshop is in trouble, but I do think they are pushing up against the limit of what they can do. Their ability to grow is not infinite and it seems they are starting to ask too much of their players meager means (more so in a post COVID economy), so there's going to be some contraction coming soon. I think a new edition of 40k will stave off this contraction for a while, though.

And speaking of Star Wars, I think the absolute best way to destroy your IP and salt the earth behind you is to enter the culture war, which GW gleefully did recently. Regardless of which side you come down on, that division created is ultimately very destructive to a brand over time. If it can take down Star Wars in two years, it can just as easily take down GW. I just read this article, which is basically the beginnings of a fanbase going to war with itself, and with GW.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 15:29:48


Post by: Kanluwen


Not gonna go into this, but BITC isn't a good source for literally anything that is not "news that's already been reported".

Also, they're on Parler. That alone should tell you something.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 15:34:00


Post by: Pacific


alphaecho wrote:
 smurfORnot wrote:
Why ain't you becoming shareholders? Seems stock price has been on the rise for years...?



Therefore the time to have gambled with share buying would have been years ago just prior to Kirby departing.

Hindsight is wonderful.

The UK FInancial Times had a piece on GW today where an analyst from Jeffries (I'm not into shares and such so I have no idea what their credibility is) suggested turn over may have exceeded £100 million this year if not for Covid-19.

The Editor of Wargames Illustrated has a feature on the pandemic in issue 392. Some firms like Empress, Baccus6mm and Pulp Figures did quite well whereas Gripping Beast and Warlord Games suffered from the lack of retail not covering an increase in Mail Order.


You would have thought many hobbies such as this would have done very well out of the lockdown periods, impact on the economy and job losses not withstanding. I'm quite into plastic kit building and after speaking to a few places I shop from they were absolutely inundated with orders earlier into the lockdown period and couldn't keep up, compounded by some of the stock and supply issues.

I guess where wargaming may have struggled is with the halt on gaming, tournaments and clubs etc. Although I'm sure many will have used this time to buy more armies and paint more things!


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 15:54:23


Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik


 Sqorgar wrote:
animal310 wrote:
A company whose share price has increased almost twenty fold in four years from £4.51 per share in July 2016 to £87.05 per share now is not on its way out.
And people thought Disney buying Star Wars was the best decision ever too.

I don't think Games Workshop is in trouble, but I do think they are pushing up against the limit of what they can do. Their ability to grow is not infinite and it seems they are starting to ask too much of their players meager means (more so in a post COVID economy), so there's going to be some contraction coming soon. I think a new edition of 40k will stave off this contraction for a while, though.

And speaking of Star Wars, I think the absolute best way to destroy your IP and salt the earth behind you is to enter the culture war, which GW gleefully did recently. Regardless of which side you come down on, that division created is ultimately very destructive to a brand over time. If it can take down Star Wars in two years, it can just as easily take down GW. I just read this article, which is basically the beginnings of a fanbase going to war with itself, and with GW.


I’d be careful of assuming other people’s means matey.

As for their recent and impressive expansion, GW themselves have warned, since it began, it’s not going to last forever, so that’s hardly new information. Rather than relying on existing customers, they’re focusing on attracting new ones and via various revenue streams, hence their licensing drive.

I suspect Eisenhorn may be the real litmus test. 40k is an odd beast in terms of its background, and may simply prove unsuited to the small screen. But, if it works, and attracts a decent viewership? It’ll be the tip of a potentially massive iceberg of new money. After all, what works on the small screen attracts the interest of the big screen. And from the big screen, comes The Big Cash In and many, many more licensing opportunities.



GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 16:12:00


Post by: MaxT


I'd also not be proclaiming Star Wars "death" just yet either. They may not be posting hot takes on social media, but there's an entirely new generation of kids who grew up watching the new trilogy and really, really liked it


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 17:14:48


Post by: Londinium


 smurfORnot wrote:
Why ain't you becoming shareholders? Seems stock price has been on the rise for years...?


Because it's probably not going to get much higher, it's overpriced now. For instance GW is worth more than Centrica (British Gas), which is frankly ridiculous. The only way it gets substantially higher is if GW gets Eisenhorn on Netflix/Amazon and it's a massive smash and that results in a '01'-'03 LOTR style boom. Which is a long shot given it's nicheness (far darker than GOT/The Witcher etc, even Altered Carbon which isn't exactly a mainstream smash) and the general public's reaction to miniature games. Even a LOTR style boom would struggle to replicate recent share price growth which came from a very low base.

I am kicking myself at not buying some stock when it was at it's nadir in '16 before Rountree took over. It's not a particularly well understood company amongst general investors so was probably underpriced then, even given the crapness of late Kirby era and most GW fans could tell you there was value there, even a moderately competant successor to Kirby could have increased that value via just listening to the fans. Sticking a grand in then would have resulted in a return of circa £20k (ignoring taxes) as mad as that sounds.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 17:22:01


Post by: stratigo


 Arbitrator wrote:
 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
There’s also stock differences between Indies and GW.

I tend to buy from Element, but if they don’t have it in stock, I’ll look around, and may eventually order direct from GW.

Do people really need product so urgently they'll buy it at a GW markup though? I understand when it comes to independent games (especially anything supplied by Ass-mode) sometimes you have to bite the bullet and buy more expensive or else potentially never see it for a year, but there's usually no more than just under a week's wait - at worst - for restocks of GW product.


In normal times.

GW's actually been running extremely low on a lot of product at the moment, and both GW stores and independents in my area are suffering from a lack of replacements to kits that have sold out.

Ironically my local GW monday had something like 40 indomitus boxes left while the rest of the store was almost barren


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 smurfORnot wrote:
Why ain't you becoming shareholders? Seems stock price has been on the rise for years...?


I am




Automatically Appended Next Post:
 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
 Sqorgar wrote:
animal310 wrote:
A company whose share price has increased almost twenty fold in four years from £4.51 per share in July 2016 to £87.05 per share now is not on its way out.
And people thought Disney buying Star Wars was the best decision ever too.

I don't think Games Workshop is in trouble, but I do think they are pushing up against the limit of what they can do. Their ability to grow is not infinite and it seems they are starting to ask too much of their players meager means (more so in a post COVID economy), so there's going to be some contraction coming soon. I think a new edition of 40k will stave off this contraction for a while, though.

And speaking of Star Wars, I think the absolute best way to destroy your IP and salt the earth behind you is to enter the culture war, which GW gleefully did recently. Regardless of which side you come down on, that division created is ultimately very destructive to a brand over time. If it can take down Star Wars in two years, it can just as easily take down GW. I just read this article, which is basically the beginnings of a fanbase going to war with itself, and with GW.


I’d be careful of assuming other people’s means matey.

As for their recent and impressive expansion, GW themselves have warned, since it began, it’s not going to last forever, so that’s hardly new information. Rather than relying on existing customers, they’re focusing on attracting new ones and via various revenue streams, hence their licensing drive.

I suspect Eisenhorn may be the real litmus test. 40k is an odd beast in terms of its background, and may simply prove unsuited to the small screen. But, if it works, and attracts a decent viewership? It’ll be the tip of a potentially massive iceberg of new money. After all, what works on the small screen attracts the interest of the big screen. And from the big screen, comes The Big Cash In and many, many more licensing opportunities.



A successful media franchise for GW does mean the end of independent GW. One of the big fish will swoop in the consume the company to add to its media empire.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 17:26:12


Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik


Not necessarily. Depends who owns what percentage of shares.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 17:28:47


Post by: stratigo


 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Not necessarily. Depends who owns what percentage of shares.


Kirby owns the most. And if you think for a moment if, like disney goes "Hey, for a (insert arbitrary sum here), will you sell this to us?" He'd say no? I mean that's not exactly how purchases go, but Kirby would have significant say in any sale of GW.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 17:54:50


Post by: BobtheInquisitor


 Sqorgar wrote:
animal310 wrote:
A company whose share price has increased almost twenty fold in four years from £4.51 per share in July 2016 to £87.05 per share now is not on its way out.
And people thought Disney buying Star Wars was the best decision ever too.

I don't think Games Workshop is in trouble, but I do think they are pushing up against the limit of what they can do. Their ability to grow is not infinite and it seems they are starting to ask too much of their players meager means (more so in a post COVID economy), so there's going to be some contraction coming soon. I think a new edition of 40k will stave off this contraction for a while, though.

And speaking of Star Wars, I think the absolute best way to destroy your IP and salt the earth behind you is to enter the culture war, which GW gleefully did recently. Regardless of which side you come down on, that division created is ultimately very destructive to a brand over time. If it can take down Star Wars in two years, it can just as easily take down GW. I just read this article, which is basically the beginnings of a fanbase going to war with itself, and with GW.


I disagree with the culture war stuff directly, but I will say that SW as a franchise clearly had no direction. The “culture war” stuff was a side effect of the corporate checklist system of art creation—an obvious indicator to the whole as Poochie’s sunglasses were to him. The problem with Poochie wasn’t that he tried to pander to Rastafarians, but that all there was to him was pandering. SW has been all pander and no (intential) substance since the buyout.

Similarly, GW has been creatively adrift for a few editions now. Since 5th, it was pretty clear that GW we’re losing the creative staff who actually understood their product. Nearly every big thing they’ve done since then has been dictated from a marketing checklist, and any culture war stuff is a small part of that. It’s a small symptom of a much larger problem. Pointing at that is like saying Poochie’s sunglasses are the one thing that made the character a creative failure.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 18:01:05


Post by: Londinium


stratigo wrote:
 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Not necessarily. Depends who owns what percentage of shares.


Kirby owns the most. And if you think for a moment if, like disney goes "Hey, for a (insert arbitrary sum here), will you sell this to us?" He'd say no? I mean that's not exactly how purchases go, but Kirby would have significant say in any sale of GW.


If we consider that a major company would be interested, below are some candidates:

Disney: Not a chance in hell. Far too dark for their audience. No experience in the gaming market, no interest in the gaming market.
Amazon/Netflix: Nope, quite happy with the licence for TV shows/movies at most.
Other major Hollywood companies: Very unlikely. If they're interested they'll just via a licence via in house or outside production companies.
Apple: Ha.
EA/Ubisoft/other AAA Video Game Company: Unlikely again, quite happy just getting the licences, unless one of them goes mad and tries to build a multi-media empire.

Hasbro: Always the company rumoured during GW's dark period. Would sit nicely alongside Wizards of the Coast. Unlikely due to the current cost of GW and didn't strike when GW was struggling in the mid 10s.
Asmodee: Like Hasbro, from a similar market place. GW likely far too expensive.

There's not a whole load of companies out there that would want GW or be in a position to afford GW if they did. If it was ever taken over, it'd probably be private venture capital if anything. More likely it's just that the shares will continue trading, if Kirby wants to sell his large stake, he'll slowly run it down through open market sales.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 18:01:15


Post by: Tyel


Sort of not related, but I don't think Star Wars got "taken down" by entering the culture war - big yawn outside of the internet tbh. It got taken down by a succession of films large numbers of fans either disliked or were indifferent too (which for any franchise really is kind of the same thing, perhaps even worse.)
TLJ -> "I hate it" "I hate that you hate it" "Banter banter banter"
Solo-> "Tumbleweed."
TRoS "I don't care." "Neither do I." "kthnxbye"

But a few more Mandalorians and they'll be back in business.

If GW release a major release which completely flops because it looks crap - or the player base just decides they've got enough plastic thanks, or would rather play something other than GW games - then they are in trouble. It won't be because they've alienated the internet hard left or hard right who are persuaded selling plastic is somehow progressive, regressive, or simultaneously both.

Its also difficult to square "GW are nearing the end" with "gib Indomitus, gib gib, totally unfair you didn't print enough, print more print more, print moooorre."

Really regret I didn't buy some shares when they slumped in March - but it was a bit of a chaotic time. Sad thing about buying opportunities is that they are usually only obvious in hindsight. Its why most people lose money if they actively trade shares.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 18:22:12


Post by: Mad Doc Grotsnik


Let’s also be careful about what “taken down” actually means.

Rise of Skywalker still broke $1,000,000,000 at the box office.

Go on. Look me in the eye and tell me, by any metric, a film with a £275,000,000 estimated budget near quadrupling that investment is a ‘failure’.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 18:29:10


Post by: chaos0xomega


macluvin wrote:
animal310 wrote:
 Sqorgar wrote:
 Londinium wrote:
Given their explosive growth since Rountree came in, the fact they're still increasing profits if at a slower rate is definitely interesting.
Considering the price increases have caused much of their stock to increase by 50% (or more) in the last year alone, it's possible that they are selling fewer products to fewer customers, but making a larger profit on a per customer basis. If this is true, then they could actually be increasing profits while ultimately losing customers. That would be a terrible long term strategy for the company. Ask the 90s comic book industry.

It's also possible that they are retaining their customers and making more profits off them too, so who knows?


A company whose share price has increased almost twenty fold in four years from £4.51 per share in July 2016 to £87.05 per share now is not on its way out.


To be fair our stock market spiked after a coronavirus stimulus bill granted retroactive tax exemptions by removing caps on last years taxes for certain things. Basically the rich and a bunch of companies got a hidden stimulus check and that caused our stock market to rise erratically. Moral of the story is that the stock prices are solely based on how well investors think companies are going to do and they all knew that our biggest companies were getting fat stimulus checks.


GW is traded on a different exchange that doesn't really react to US domestic fiscal policy and tax incentives.

I mean, GW's financials were a bit of a mess in the 90s. Kirby and the guys he brought in, ironically, are what righted the ship. Cause he was a businessman who knew business, just not the market he was in.


Super ironic that he had a good successful run for a decade or so before it started crashing down around him.

Why ain't you becoming shareholders? Seems stock price has been on the rise for years...?


I'm up 35%! Bought a few thousand dollars worth of shares just before COVID hit on the OTC exchanges in the US. I wish I had bought stock when it was traiding in the single digits, but I don't think anyone could have expected a floundering toy company to go on this type of a bull run.

I don't think Games Workshop is in trouble, but I do think they are pushing up against the limit of what they can do. Their ability to grow is not infinite and it seems they are starting to ask too much of their players meager means (more so in a post COVID economy), so there's going to be some contraction coming soon. I think a new edition of 40k will stave off this contraction for a while, though.


You think too small. 40Ks popularity now is basically where Star Wars was in 1978, after A New Hope, before it was a household name. Most people don't know Warhammer 40k exists, there is not yet a tv series or a movie or a AAA video game. As a franchise and an IP, there is still a *lot* of upside for GW to profit off of, and with more aggressive mining of the WHFB ("Old World"), 30K, and Age of Sigmar brands/IPs there is even bigger growth potential.

And speaking of Star Wars, I think the absolute best way to destroy your IP and salt the earth behind you is to enter the culture war, which GW gleefully did recently. Regardless of which side you come down on, that division created is ultimately very destructive to a brand over time. If it can take down Star Wars in two years, it can just as easily take down GW. I just read this article, which is basically the beginnings of a fanbase going to war with itself, and with GW.


"Take down Star Wars" - what universe do you live in? Star Wars has made Disney billions, its more profitable now than it was when George Lucas owned it. You might not like the direction that Star Wars was taken in (I don't), but you have a severe deficiency in your ability to think critically if you think Star Wars has been anything other than a major cash cow, even with the controversies.

Because it's probably not going to get much higher, it's overpriced now. For instance GW is worth more than Centrica (British Gas), which is frankly ridiculous. The only way it gets substantially higher is if GW gets Eisenhorn on Netflix/Amazon and it's a massive smash and that results in a '01'-'03 LOTR style boom. Which is a long shot given it's nicheness (far darker than GOT/The Witcher etc, even Altered Carbon which isn't exactly a mainstream smash) and the general public's reaction to miniature games. Even a LOTR style boom would struggle to replicate recent share price growth which came from a very low base.


I think this is a bad take. The setting can be toned to the audience - just look at the Warhammer Adventures novels for a "kid friendly" take. I think GoT and The Witcher are a good indicator that there is an appetite for 40k brand grimdark. The huge growth in visibility and awareness of the franchise - which overall still remains relatively obscure - is also a good indicator of the potential total addressable market and available upside for the property.

Kirby owns the most. And if you think for a moment if, like disney goes "Hey, for a (insert arbitrary sum here), will you sell this to us?" He'd say no? I mean that's not exactly how purchases go, but Kirby would have significant say in any sale of GW.


No.

Kirby is the 7th largest shareholder at 3.3%. The largest shareholder is "Aberdeen Standard Life" at 7.7%. The top 7 largest shareholders collectively make up less than 40% of ownership.



GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 18:34:23


Post by: BobtheInquisitor


Point of order—Star Wars (NOT A New Hope back then) was a smash hit and a household name during its theatrical release. It was never as obscure as Warhammer is now (unless you count the first few weeks of release). Even if there had never been The Empire Strikes Back, Star Wars would be as well known today as Jaws and ET.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 18:35:24


Post by: kodos


Also Transformers make a fair share of money for a kids toy
does not mean the movies are good or something that will last long

the latest SW films had the simply problem of trying to hard while doing a copy&paste of the original ones and not knowing what story they wanted to tell

would have been easier to just make a movie from the existing EU instead of trying to be creative


For GW, lets see what Eisenhorn can do, but I fear that classic 40k won't fit the current expectation of the political view (an Inquisitor of a facist Imperium)

So there might be more interest from outside the usual costumer to the game itself, pushing sales
but as with LotR, those costumers react much more sensitive to price and rule changes and won't stay long if nothing else changes

For shares, just look at what the Pokemon movies and games have done for Nintendo, short time rise of values but nothing in the long run


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 18:38:21


Post by: Sqorgar


Kanluwen wrote:Not gonna go into this, but BITC isn't a good source for literally anything that is not "news that's already been reported".

Also, they're on Parler. That alone should tell you something.
The article I linked to contained links to all the relevant, quoted videos, tweets, and postings. There's enough primary sources there to draw your own conclusions, even if you don't agree with their politics (and I don't). The point is that GW is now a political target from an ever fracturing fanbase - and they didn't have to be. They chose that. And it will only escalate.

Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:I’d be careful of assuming other people’s means matey.
Since I'm talking about a really big number of fans (numbering at least into the hundreds of thousands, if not millions), rather than an individual or small group, I can make assumptions about their means as a collective. The Bell Curve ain't peaking at being able to spend $600 a month, purely on GW new releases.

As for their recent and impressive expansion, GW themselves have warned, since it began, it’s not going to last forever, so that’s hardly new information. Rather than relying on existing customers, they’re focusing on attracting new ones and via various revenue streams, hence their licensing drive.
First, I'm saying the contraction will be greater than even GW expects. I think demand is like a rubber band, and they've been stretching it too far. When it reaches that end point, it will either break or snap back suddenly. This is what happened with comic books in the 90s, where every other issue was a #1 with fourteen different variant covers - when the snap happened, they didn't just go back to doing the same business they did beforehand, it contracted so much it almost destroyed the entire industry. Rather than stretching the rubber band, they need to stop pushing and dial it back now rather than later.

Second, moving to an IP license factory has its own pitfalls. Marvel had a few successful movies, so Disney bought them outright, which changed the comic creation directives to the point where Marvel Comics is essentially worthless, and Disney just keeps it around out of obligation. Games Workshop would ultimately do better to make their core business right and use licensing as a small, supplemental income. Also, if Games Workshop were to go "woke" and destroy their brand in the manner that Disney tarnished Star Wars', those license dollars will shrink faster than the aftermarket value of a Rose Tico action figure.

MaxT wrote:I'd also not be proclaiming Star Wars "death" just yet either. They may not be posting hot takes on social media, but there's an entirely new generation of kids who grew up watching the new trilogy and really, really liked it
Star Wars isn't dead, but Disney will need to make some drastic changes to get it back to being worth what they paid for it. I've heard rumors they are booting Kennedy, putting the Mandolorian team in charge, and bringing Lucas back in some capacity - which would probably do it. I'm really hoping there's teeth to the rumor of them de-canonizing the new trilogy. I doubt it, but I'm no longer involved with Star Wars as a fan, so I don't have to give a crap one way or the other.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 18:41:25


Post by: Azreal13


stratigo wrote:
 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Not necessarily. Depends who owns what percentage of shares.


Kirby owns the most.


No he doesn't, not even close. He's the individual with the most shares, but there's institutions that own far more.


[Thumb - Screenshot_20200729_193821_com.android.chrome.jpg]


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 18:41:53


Post by: kodos


chaos0xomega wrote:
Super ironic that he had a good successful run for a decade or so before it started crashing down around him.

Kirby bought in with borrowed money and needed that back fast
hence he made some decisions that nearly cost them everything (like mismanagement with the SG games, were to much foreign boxes were made that did not sell)
the results are still seen today and while the plan to "rescue" worked, the big money came in after he left (and the management with him)


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 18:51:12


Post by: BobtheInquisitor


A few things.

1. Something like Eisenhorn shouldn’t have to worry about political correctness for the setting and internal logic of it, but only from external factors like casting and studio shenanigans. Even social justice types can suspend disbelief. The recent Dredd film didn’t turn off the left with depictions of police brutality because it was obviously part of the premise of the setting.

2. I agree with Sqorgar about demand. We already saw it happen once, during the Kirby price hikes. Once enough customers have have discovered alternatives (Warmahordes back then), it will create an escape valve for all the GW customers who feel dissatisfied with GW’s antics. High prices will drive people to look for alternatives...and there are many maturing product lines and games waiting for them. I personally believe that customers aware of Wargames Atlantic or even Mantic GCPS will have a hard time paying outrageous prices for GW Astra Miliatrum. As 3D printing becomes cheaper and cheaper, and Thingiverse grows and grows, customers will have a harder time justifying paying $35 for a character or $75 for a tank.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 18:55:21


Post by: Tyel


 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Let’s also be careful about what “taken down” actually means.

Rise of Skywalker still broke $1,000,000,000 at the box office.

Go on. Look me in the eye and tell me, by any metric, a film with a £275,000,000 estimated budget near quadrupling that investment is a ‘failure’.


Its a failure if you were hoping for more
But your point is right.
Although the economics are a bit different to that. Disney doesn't get all that $$$. Depending on region something like 33-50+% goes to cinemas. There will also be a big marketing spend for a film which doesn't feature in the budget.
But sure, even if their true all in cost was about $400m, and they bagged $600m, no one is going to lament making $200m profit, even if say TLJ made $300m of that, and TFA made something stupid like $600m+.

This is why say Solo - budget $275-300m, box office about $392m will have lost Disney money - although exactly how much remains somewhat guarded and so debated to this day.

Really the point is that it seemed Disney were on for another Marvel, and we'd have a Star Wars film every year. Or maybe more than one. And if each was making Disney $200-300m, why not? But they seem unclear where to go now, because Solo bombed, and the last trilogy doesn't obviously lead anywhere.

But hey, by 2023 people will probably be keen to see X-Wings and Tie Fighters again.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 19:07:01


Post by: Lord of Deeds


Spoiler:
 Sqorgar wrote:
Second, moving to an IP license factory has its own pitfalls. Marvel had a few successful movies, so Disney bought them outright, which changed the comic creation directives to the point where Marvel Comics is essentially worthless, and Disney just keeps it around out of obligation. Games Workshop would ultimately do better to make their core business right and use licensing as a small, supplemental income. Also, if Games Workshop were to go "woke" and destroy their brand in the manner that Disney tarnished Star Wars', those license dollars will shrink faster than the aftermarket value of a Rose Tico action figure.


Are there pitfalls with becoming an IP license factory? Of course. But GW has an obligation to its shareholders to maximize the amount of income it can earn from its IP, whether it is through video games, merchandise, or entertainment media. GW also needs to strike while its IP is hot to take advantage of the momentum less it languish and be overtaken by something else. Is there a risk of over saturating the market, yes of course. But there is a real opportunity where the revenue generated from licensing its IP or leveraging its IP outside of tabletop games has the potential to far outstrip the revenue GW collects from its “core” business right now.

Using Marvel as an example, the revenue it derives from comic book publishing is miniscule now compared to the revenue generated through licensing, games, and video entertainment. Its shareholders would be apoplectic if Marvel (more accurately, Disney) announced that they would be scaling back the use of their IP outside of comic publishing to make focus more on their “core” business. In fact I am sure those investors would point out, quite rightly IMHO, that comic book publishing is no longer Marvel's core business. There is nothing to say that 10 or even 5 years from now, GW's tabletop business will still be GW's core business.

As for the risks of “get Woke, go broke”, I think there is a perspective in business that it too shall pass and that creative and innovative marketing and/or new products will allow them to win back any business loss due to any current pandering to a vocal segment of population.



GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 19:11:34


Post by: kodos


 BobtheInquisitor wrote:

1. Something like Eisenhorn shouldn’t have to worry about political correctness for the setting and internal logic of it, but only from external factors like casting and studio shenanigans. Even social justice types can suspend disbelief. The recent Dredd film didn’t turn off the left with depictions of police brutality because it was obviously part of the premise of the setting .

while Dread is not that old, it still was a different time

and it would not be the first series or movie removed because the political situation changed
like single episodes from famous series are not shown anymore because things are more sensitive now

If Dread or Starship Troopers would be in Cinema in now, the reaction would be very different


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 19:12:23


Post by: Sqorgar


Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:Let’s also be careful about what “taken down” actually means.

Rise of Skywalker still broke $1,000,000,000 at the box office.

Go on. Look me in the eye and tell me, by any metric, a film with a £275,000,000 estimated budget near quadrupling that investment is a ‘failure’.

I think you've got your pounds and dollars mixed up. It was around $250-$300 million budget. Usually, you have to double that to get the number to beat after marketing and other expenses. So it needed to make $500-$600 million to break even - which it did (worldwide). But it was the lowest opening of all the Star Wars films (adjusting for inflation), and it had significant drop offs week to week (over 50%) which is never a good sign for longevity. It also basically made no money in the largest market in the world - the Chinese market. I don't know what the Blu Ray sales were like, but I'm guessing it was pretty low. The toy sales were also so abysmal after The Last Jedi (which directly contributed to the death of Toys R Us), that for Rise there were fewer toys made and sold - and toy sales are where Star Wars really makes the cash. Sure, it made money, but as a Star Wars film, it underperformed and made a lot less money than it could've and should've.

Star Wars isn't just a movie. It's a toy line. It's halloween costumes. It's backpacks and pencil cases. It's Blu Ray sales and book sales. It's board games and miniature games and video games. Star Wars is an ecosystem, and I think it is pretty telling that Rise of the Skywalker very nearly managed to avoid all of them.

chaos0xomega wrote:You think too small. 40Ks popularity now is basically where Star Wars was in 1978, after A New Hope, before it was a household name. Most people don't know Warhammer 40k exists, there is not yet a tv series or a movie or a AAA video game. As a franchise and an IP, there is still a *lot* of upside for GW to profit off of, and with more aggressive mining of the WHFB ("Old World"), 30K, and Age of Sigmar brands/IPs there is even bigger growth potential.
I don't think so. Star Wars was so popular in 1977 that Kenner sold people the promise of Star Wars toys (since none had been manufactured yet) and it sold gangbusters. By 1978, has a successful toyline and many imitators. It even had a Christmas special. Where's my 40k Christmas Special?

I don't think 40k has much mainstream appeal, personally. Not in the way that something like Star Wars or Doctor Who is. I think the closest analog would be Games of Thrones - a show for adults that is allowed to be "grimdark". But I don't think 40k could achieve the same success because the virtues of 40k is largely in the expansive canon and not necessarily in the individual characters or plots. Having read Eisenhorn fairly recently, it was a fine book, but there's nothing in it that is going to resonate with a large mainstream audience - not in the way that Ned Stark's plight did. It's a relatively straightforward book with few surprises or relatable characters. Due to the terminology used, it's vaguely impenetrable to outsiders. Where it shines, in my opinion, is in the way it presents the larger 40k universe. Seeing a chaos space marine from the perspective of simple human. That's not going to resonate with people who don't already know what a chaos space marine is or what it represents.

"Take down Star Wars" - what universe do you live in? Star Wars has made Disney billions, its more profitable now than it was when George Lucas owned it. You might not like the direction that Star Wars was taken in (I don't), but you have a severe deficiency in your ability to think critically if you think Star Wars has been anything other than a major cash cow, even with the controversies.
I think this is patently incorrect, for all the reasons I stated above about how poorly Rise of the Skywalker did.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 19:14:56


Post by: Turnip Jedi


 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Let’s also be careful about what “taken down” actually means.

Rise of Skywalker still broke $1,000,000,000 at the box office.

Go on. Look me in the eye and tell me, by any metric, a film with a £275,000,000 estimated budget near quadrupling that investment is a ‘failure’.


because its no longer about some moneys but all the moneys especially compared to Endgame which was 2.8bn on 350m (approx) and id guess Disney expected at least 2bn out of Rise, so maybe below expectations is fairer than failure

but GW would have to repeatedly fup up to be in any danger of the said same expectation crash although they are starting to run low on stuff to pull from the nostalgia cabient, just proper epic and bfg


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 19:17:02


Post by: Vaktathi


All, lets leave the politics for blogs, there's zero reason for this thread to be getting into "going woke" and culture wars, it'll almost certainly be more productive without it, thanks!


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 19:37:23


Post by: Lord of Deeds


Going back to the GW’s AR and its future prospects. Is the stock due for a correction, possibly. Are GW’s earnings likely to plateau or even regress this year, I think probably. Even though core manufacturing was shutdown for "only" 6 weeks, we can all see the havoc that COVID has had on GW’s supply chain and retail channels for which the bill probably comes apparent in this year’s earnings. Particularly concerning is that GW is still paying leases on retail space that has been closed for prolonged periods of time or still operating on very limited hours with by antidotal accounts very limited stock. This has been poison for other retailers with similar burdens and inevitably is going to weigh on GW’s earnings until normal retail resumes.

The positive difference between GW and those retailers struggling to maintain their footing is GW’s fundamentals were great pre-COVID and they are a niche business offering an exclusive IP to a very loyal customer base that historically has been elastic in the face of price increases.

So do you go out and buy GW stock? I don’t think so as it is not likely to provide much in short term gains at this point having probably peaked and long term I don’t think it grows much if as GW’s has warned, this constant increase in profits is not going to last.

I also don’t think GW is an acquisition target which would be the only other thing to drive the stock higher IMHO. For the reasons listed, there doesn’t seem to be an obvious or well positioned buyer unless someone was interested in taking them private.

In terms of "buy, sell, or hold" I would lean to sell or hold.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 19:45:15


Post by: BobtheInquisitor


 kodos wrote:
 BobtheInquisitor wrote:

1. Something like Eisenhorn shouldn’t have to worry about political correctness for the setting and internal logic of it, but only from external factors like casting and studio shenanigans. Even social justice types can suspend disbelief. The recent Dredd film didn’t turn off the left with depictions of police brutality because it was obviously part of the premise of the setting .

while Dread is not that old, it still was a different time

and it would not be the first series or movie removed because the political situation changed
like single episodes from famous series are not shown anymore because things are more sensitive now

If Dread or Starship Troopers would be in Cinema in now, the reaction would be very different


You mean that Golden Girls episode? I’m pretty sure there was no actual backlash, just Disney overreacting to be seen doing something.

Starship Troopers is a left-leaning satire of fascism. If anything, it’s more timely now (and since the War on Terror really) than it was when it came out.

Dredd also has its roots in satire, and from the left again. General audiences haven’t changed much in how they approach movies since then, either. Certain sections of the internet have gotten louder, though they only have the power that the mainstream grants them by overreacting. Besides, Disney has always been quick to cut material that offends anyone—Song of the South, “Where they cut off your ear if they don’t like your face”, etc.—but there weren’t clickbait outrage peddlers around back then to make some money off it.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Apologies. Didn’t see the warning.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 20:02:41


Post by: Grimtuff


 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Let’s also be careful about what “taken down” actually means.

Rise of Skywalker still broke $1,000,000,000 at the box office.

Go on. Look me in the eye and tell me, by any metric, a film with a £275,000,000 estimated budget near quadrupling that investment is a ‘failure’.


Yes, it is a failure in the eyes of Disney. Only 1 billion made (after the first one netted twice as much. Disney has not made their investment back on Star Wars just FYI), practically no toys due to constant chopping and changing of the film. 'member when Matt Smith was playing the villain, yet a massive chunk of the film got reshot and Palpatine inserted as the villain instead? (side note, Matt Smith has made off like a bandit, first Terminator Genisys and then Star Wars. Guy gets paid for not even appearing in a film... ). There is a reason Kathleen Kennedy's contract is not being renewed and John Favereau is the guy that is rumoured to be given the keys to the kingdom.

I suggest you watch a few videos by the channel Midnight's Edge, who have a lot of the inside scoops on this as to why Star Wars is now a tainted brand in the eye's of Disney. Disney will not out and out admit it, but there is enough corroborating evidence to suggest RoTSW is not at all what they hoped for. Even the director dislikes it, with Abram's 192 minute cut being the "proper" version to him.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 20:13:14


Post by: chaos0xomega


 BobtheInquisitor wrote:
Point of order—Star Wars (NOT A New Hope back then) was a smash hit and a household name during its theatrical release. It was never as obscure as Warhammer is now (unless you count the first few weeks of release). Even if there had never been The Empire Strikes Back, Star Wars would be as well known today as Jaws and ET.


I think you're overstating the popularity of Star Wars amongst the general public at large after ANH released. It was a blockbuster hit, sure, but so was Pacific Rim - that doesn't mean everyone has seen Pacific Rim or that everyone would necessarily really even know anything about it other than thats its a movie.

For GW, lets see what Eisenhorn can do, but I fear that classic 40k won't fit the current expectation of the political view (an Inquisitor of a facist Imperium)


Disagreed. 40k was always intended as a satire and a critique, not an aspirational tale. If its written and played the right way, the current zeitgeist is basically perfect for Eisenhorn to blow up bigly.

2. I agree with Sqorgar about demand. We already saw it happen once, during the Kirby price hikes. Once enough customers have have discovered alternatives (Warmahordes back then), it will create an escape valve for all the GW customers who feel dissatisfied with GW’s antics. High prices will drive people to look for alternatives...and there are many maturing product lines and games waiting for them. I personally believe that customers aware of Wargames Atlantic or even Mantic GCPS will have a hard time paying outrageous prices for GW Astra Miliatrum. As 3D printing becomes cheaper and cheaper, and Thingiverse grows and grows, customers will have a harder time justifying paying $35 for a character or $75 for a tank.


Disagreed here too. Mantic and Wargames Atlantic can't really tough GW's sculpt quality and kit quality. Not to say that they don't also produce neat minis, but theres a very noticeable gulf between them and its pretty clear you're getting what you are paying for (and I am far from a GW apologist here, a lot of my minis are third party, but its got to the point I'd rather pay more for a better product instead of spending my time converting, cleaning, repairing, and modifying other peoples kits). And while 3D printing is getting cheaper and cheaper it isn't necessarily getting any faster. I can spend 3 months printing a 2000 pt army, or I can buy it in one shot for $350 bucks and get the dopamine rush associated with feeding my habit.

As for the risks of “get Woke, go broke”, I think there is a perspective in business that it too shall pass and that creative and innovative marketing and/or new products will allow them to win back any business loss due to any current pandering to a vocal segment of population.


Its also worth stating that thus far the political right (at least in the United States) has kind of failed to make any clear or sustained meaningful inroads by way of boycotts, etc. With a couple of exceptions, wokeness has actually paid off big time for the companies that have gone that route, which is why we are seeing a big rush for others to follow suit with the recent resurgence in BLM. Theres been a number of pretty well written articles debunking "Get Woke, Go Broke" as a meme and a mantra unsupported by factual data. I'll leave others to spend the time to find them and research the topic instead of going off on a tangent here.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 20:31:15


Post by: Vaktathi


Fellow Dakka-ites, again, please keep the political commentary elsewhere.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 20:37:27


Post by: kodos


chaos0xomega wrote:

Disagreed here too. Mantic and Wargames Atlantic can't really tough GW's sculpt quality and kit quality. Not to say that they don't also produce neat minis, but theres a very noticeable gulf between them and its pretty clear you're getting what you are paying for (and I am far from a GW apologist here, a lot of my minis are third party, but its got to the point I'd rather pay more for a better product instead of spending my time converting, cleaning, repairing, and modifying other peoples kits).

They don't need to be

we are still talking about Wound Markers for a game
it does not matter if each one if your 100 Guardsmen looks perfect at close distance and hold up to display quality of Resin busts, as it is still just a marker among many others

if the models have a reasonable price and look good enough an arm length away, they are perfect for gaming

and looking at current GW Guard models, Mantic GCPS and the Wargames Atlantic Raumjägers & Grognards look better


 BobtheInquisitor wrote:

You mean that Golden Girls episode? I’m pretty sure there was no actual backlash, just Disney overreacting to be seen doing something.

this one too?
no, talking about european shows and movies, mostly comedy and satirical stuff, but there is also a discussion among people in Germany if a movie should be shown in cinema for the 35th anniversary as it is not clear enough if one scene with a black man is satire or just racist


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 20:59:01


Post by: BobtheInquisitor


ChaosOmega, Star Wars was one of the most profitable movies ever made. It literally changed the way movies are made, sold, and merchandised. It spawned a whole sub-genre and countless imitators. Perhaps in China it wasn’t that big, but in the west, especially the US, it was a phenomenon.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 21:23:10


Post by: queen_annes_revenge


Why is monetary value/return always just taken as a given indicator of quality? Should it be? I guess it's because it's the only real way to assert anything on this sort of topic with empirical evidence, but it's surely not going to magically convince people in a fanbase who believe that the canon of a given fictional universe is being destroyed or ruined, that they are mistaken in their thoughts.

As a long time fan of a universe and it's canon, it's premises etc, you gain the right to express distaste if you feel someone might be changing those for the worse. Maybe instead of trying to hand wave those concerns with a blase mention of some financial gain, we should try to be more willing to hear them, and frame the counterargument differently, in order to allay the concerns, or change minds.

At the end of the day, the corporate machine rolls on. Money makers will always be looking to be capitalised on. But the beauty of a fictional universe is you take what you want from it.

'not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted.'


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 22:10:41


Post by: chaos0xomega


 BobtheInquisitor wrote:
ChaosOmega, Star Wars was one of the most profitable movies ever made. It literally changed the way movies are made, sold, and merchandised. It spawned a whole sub-genre and countless imitators. Perhaps in China it wasn’t that big, but in the west, especially the US, it was a phenomenon.


Again, you're overestimating its popularity. In 1978 it was a one off movie with no indication of a sequel yet. The whole "empty action figure package" thing is overstated - Kenner only sold 500,000 of them. "Annie Hall" won best picture at the Oscars. A lot of people don't realize this but Star Wars initial box office draw was built over months, not weeks, which is to say that the initial theatrical run didn't end in US theaters until July 1978 (18 months later). Between a third and half of its total box office take occurred in '78 as opposed to '77, and even despite the huge attention it received James Bond was still considered the reigning film franchise and pop culture goliath. In that sense, james Bond is to Star Wars as Star Wars is to GW.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 22:20:06


Post by: BobtheInquisitor


You...you do realize that is how it worked back then, right? That all movie releases were gradual affairs, where a few prints were used in one theater, then the next, then the next, because everything was physical, not digital, and the logistics and shipping revolution hadn’t happened yet? You do realize that selling 500,000 units was a game changed back then, that the whole system we have now didn’t exist then?

Do you think Jaws made all its money in one month? Do you think it was competing against seven other blockbusters? Why would you think Star Wars, which was even bigger and more pervasive in pop culture even then, would have less of an impact on the industry?


In any event, the point is Star Wars was orders of magnitude bigger and more culturally relevant than Warhammer has ever been. As franchises go, they are in different weight classes ...on different planets. GW and Disney have to have different concerns, because they are very much not in the same world.



Automatically Appended Next Post:
Seriously, though, you shot yourself in the foot talking about how Star Wars wasn’t a front-loaded film release like that meant it wasn’t a cinematic phenomenon. “Word of mouth” and “legs” are box office buzzwords for a reason.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 22:52:38


Post by: Azreal13




In those days, you had studio customers. Mann's main customers were Paramount and Warner Bros. Once in awhile, you'd play a picture from someone else. Fox's general sales manager at the time, the late Peter Myers, called and said George Lucas really wanted the Chinese. We had two weeks available before we had to play William Friedkin's Sorcerer, from Paramount. Fox has such limited expectations for the film he said that two weeks would be all they needed. After opening weekend, we went to Paramount, but they wouldn't budge. They said we had to live up to our commitment, but we wanted to keep control of Star Wars. We owned another theater in Hollywood that wasn't very nice. It stayed open 24 hours so people slept there. We did a crash renovation, put in new seats, painted it and cleaned it up. We moved Star Wars there, where it played for two weeks before coming back to the Chinese.


https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/star-wars-flashback-no-theater-wanted-show-movie-1977-846864


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 22:58:55


Post by: Togusa


 kodos wrote:
chaos0xomega wrote:

Disagreed here too. Mantic and Wargames Atlantic can't really tough GW's sculpt quality and kit quality. Not to say that they don't also produce neat minis, but theres a very noticeable gulf between them and its pretty clear you're getting what you are paying for (and I am far from a GW apologist here, a lot of my minis are third party, but its got to the point I'd rather pay more for a better product instead of spending my time converting, cleaning, repairing, and modifying other peoples kits).

They don't need to be

we are still talking about Wound Markers for a game
it does not matter if each one if your 100 Guardsmen looks perfect at close distance and hold up to display quality of Resin busts, as it is still just a marker among many others

if the models have a reasonable price and look good enough an arm length away, they are perfect for gaming

and looking at current GW Guard models, Mantic GCPS and the Wargames Atlantic Raumjägers & Grognards look better


 BobtheInquisitor wrote:

You mean that Golden Girls episode? I’m pretty sure there was no actual backlash, just Disney overreacting to be seen doing something.

this one too?
no, talking about european shows and movies, mostly comedy and satirical stuff, but there is also a discussion among people in Germany if a movie should be shown in cinema for the 35th anniversary as it is not clear enough if one scene with a black man is satire or just racist


Of course they do. But is it useful to point out that models made in the latter half of this decade look better than those made in the early half of the previous decade, especially since we know that given enough time guard will be updated along with everyone else?

I think not.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 Vaktathi wrote:
Fellow Dakka-ites, again, please keep the political commentary elsewhere.


it's sort of important to the discussion at hand. What is with Dakka all of a sudden wanting to be the thought police, it wasn't like that when I first joined up.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/29 23:43:18


Post by: BobtheInquisitor


When the IG minis are updated, they’ll probably look a bit better than WGA and Mantic’s best minis, probably. But $60 for 10 better than $35 for 20? I doubt it.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/30 00:02:21


Post by: chaos0xomega


 BobtheInquisitor wrote:
You...you do realize that is how it worked back then, right? That all movie releases were gradual affairs, where a few prints were used in one theater, then the next, then the next, because everything was physical, not digital, and the logistics and shipping revolution hadn’t happened yet?


Thats not really true. While theatrical runs were really long by comparison to today, that model was already on its way out by the time Star Wars released - Jaws in large part changed that being one of the first, if not *the* first, major film to have a wide simultaneous theatrical release on day 1 with over 400+ theaters on opening week - after being cut down from 900 theaters for marketing hype reasons - and reached 900 theaters within a month, and left theaters after 6 months. By the following year films were opening in hundreds of theaters simultaneously. Star Wars was a comparative slow-roll because nobody wanted to screen it at first, thus it opened on only 40 or so screens - it took almost 5 months for it to reach ~1000 screens, and - again - stayed in theaters for significantly longer. Another useful datapoint - the average run per theater for Jaws was 4.2 weeks. The average run per theater for Star Wars was 18.4 weeks. In case you were wondering, Star Wars only made about 40% more than Jaws did during its initial run, even though it was in theaters almost 3x longer.

You do realize that selling 500,000 units was a game changed back then, that the whole system we have now didn’t exist then?


In 1978 Kenner sold 40 million Star Wars toys over the course of the year. I'm not really sure you can say that 500,000 units was a "game changer" (keeping in mind that the first Star Wars toys didn't actually hit shelves until almost April of 78).


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/30 00:07:46


Post by: Koveras


 BobtheInquisitor wrote:
When the IG minis are updated, they’ll probably look a bit better than WGA and Mantic’s best minis, probably. But $60 for 10 better than $35 for 20? I doubt it.


Depends what you want them for. I dont play, I just paint. And a cohesive good looking army is way more valuable to me than more bodies.


GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/30 00:19:45


Post by: angel of death 007


 Turnip Jedi wrote:
 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Interesting breakdown as to sales by channel.

GW Stores generated 29% of sales. Third Party sales accounted for 52%, and GW’s online 19%

Their store sales are down 5% from 2019, and seem to have gone to FLGS, as that’s up 5% from 2019.

Go FLGS, I guess!


still a bit baffled by online remaining that high as besides GW only items the vast number of other online retailers offering cheaper deals it really baffles me as to who goes GW direct

Ill be curious to see if the FLGS trend continues post Event as these numbers show GW will survive but without player support smaller concerns may not


I think most people go direct because all the online retailers sell a ton of copies yet for the last several sets... of both AOS and 40k GW has turned around and told the retailers they are only getting X amount of product when they already sold 2or 3 x the amount they are now getting. This means online retailers have to tell the preorder customers that their orders are now cancelled. And forces the people who now can't preorder through anyone else because of the same issue and now being so far behind the 8 ball to have to buy direct to guarantee they get it. GW makes more money this way.. and seems to be yet another shady thing they have been doing since atleast Looncurse.

This scares the consumer into preordering from elsewhere when their preorders get cancelled a week before due to GW they panic and then gotta buy direct. Definately a sales ploy GW has been doing but it really burns their online retailers who provide a good portion of their sales. I hope it bites GW in the ass.



GW Annual Report, July 2020 @ 2020/07/30 05:42:30


Post by: kodos


Made to Order has for sure done the job to get more people ordering directly from GW
And just looking at what happened with the Indominus Box, direct Order from GW because it is "limited" in addition with "Made to Order" that sold out on pre-order and shops without online store are reporting to have plenty on stock not able to sell them all on launch day

I am not really surprised that GW Online store is that high, with their current way of handling things it is more the other way around, I would have expected much more

Koveras wrote:
 BobtheInquisitor wrote:
When the IG minis are updated, they’ll probably look a bit better than WGA and Mantic’s best minis, probably. But $60 for 10 better than $35 for 20? I doubt it.

Depends what you want them for. I dont play, I just paint. And a cohesive good looking army is way more valuable to me than more bodies.

display models is a different story

 Togusa wrote:

Of course they do. But is it useful to point out that models made in the latter half of this decade look better than those made in the early half of the previous decade, especially since we know that given enough time guard will be updated along with everyone else?


and you can wait until that happens or meanwhile play the game for cheap
if you just collect and care more about the look than playing the game there are other options as well but they won't be cheaper (just better looking)