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A friend of mine just brought this to my attention, and after going deeper into it discovered something pretty shocking - The spinefist upgrade for the Termagants is a complete waste of points!

Here are the relevant stats (same range and AP):

Fleshborer: S4

Spinefists: S3, with rerolling to hit


So right off the bat, Fleshborers can glance tanks, Spines cannot.

Now, in points, 10 Spinefist Termagaunts are equal to 12 Fleshborer (unupgraded) Termagaunts.

Fleshborer:

12 shots, 6 hit.

Wounding:

T3: 4
T4: 3
T5: 2
T6: 1

Spinefists:

10 shots, 7.5 hit.

T3: 3.75
T4: 2.47
T5: 1.2
T6: 1.2

So as you can see, against T3, 4 and 5, Fleshborers win. T6 has both wounding on 6's so the twinlinked puts them over the top...barely. So unless youre going to be hunting MCs with gaunts () , why in the world would you ever give them Spinefists?

Not only that, but the Fleshborers have more wounds, more attacks in CC, and as said above, can glance tanks...all while shooting better as well.

Is this a cruel joke? People were complaining that they had to remodel their gaunts from Fleshborers to Spinefists because they "reversed" them. However, this clearly is not the case (unless Im missing something).

So if you see someone bring spinefist gaunts...I guess you know they don't know what they're doing?

Time to chop my 3 spinefist gaunts up and switch over. Im sure glad I waited for the new dex to build those guys.

Ouch that does seem like a joke upgrade. I havent played any nids yet but expect to here this month. I am kinda confused as to why they would do that all they had to do is make the upgrade free and that would have made sense.

Yup. The blow.

I feel sorry for anyone that used plastic glue...

I was expecting something like this when I started building my Tyranid army, and so assiduously built Termagants with Fleshborers. Nice to see I was right, again.

What about toughess 2 creatures?

On T2 theyre actually tied with 5 wounds each. So if youve got spinefist models, it doesnt matter if you plan on going grot hunting.

Well, at a least the spine fist is better than a lasgun at close range.

Take that, Imperium.

orchewer wrote:Well, at a least the spine fist is better than a lasgun at close range.

Take that, Imperium.

Nope, lasguns can rapidfire for 2 shots at 12", which is better than 1 twin-linked shot. The lasgun gets 2 hits 25% of the time, one hit 50% of the time, and misses 25% of the time. The spinefist gets one hit 75% of the time, and misses 25% of the time.

Thankfully I only every painted 12 of my spinegaunts. I feel sorry for anyone who put together an "endless swarm" Apocalypse formation though...

In my opinion, the devourer is the best choice. It's expensive, but worth it. Just imagine dropping a mycetic spore of 20 devourer-armed gaunts in the enemy's backfield. That's 60 shots! I don't know all that mathhammer crap, but it should be the absolute bane of Guard, Orks or any other non-power-armored enemy.

I gave all mine Fleshborers in the old codex just because I think the Spinefists look really stupid.

Aduro wrote:I gave all mine Fleshborers in the old codex just because I think the Spinefists look really stupid.

QFT

warpcrafter wrote:In my opinion, the devourer is the best choice. It's expensive, but worth it. Just imagine dropping a mycetic spore of 20 devourer-armed gaunts in the enemy's backfield. That's 60 shots! I don't know all that mathhammer crap, but it should be the absolute bane of Guard, Orks or any other non-power-armored enemy.

Well, I think that's part of the point, though - switching to Devourers gets you more firepower and more range in return for having half as many gaunts (and thus a more fragile unit). Spike Rifle only reduces your model count by a few, and results in weaker shooting overall, but gives you more range relatively cheaply.

But Spinefists cost more, for weaker shooting and the same range. You are literally paying more points for a worse unit, and that's terrible.

Clthomps wrote:Yup. The blow.

I feel sorry for anyone that used plastic glue...

I did the math and I could not believe that you have to pay more for a gun that shoots the same, now I have to switch 32 termagants back.

I will use clippers to take them off, and then a drill to ream out the hole for the fleshborer arms.

You need fleshborer gants for Tervigons anyways.

Yeah, drills work wonders on plastic.

I'm thinking of going Dev gaunts. Just not sure. I loved how my Horms performed so for the same 10pts per I get a unit that can at least fight it's way out of a wet paper bag.

Thanks for the drill tip, folks (pun intended). That'll take a few hours off of the chopping-regluing-grumbling process.

Do Spinefists suck less on anything else, like Raveners? They're still Assault X, aren't they?

Savnock wrote:Thanks for the drill tip, folks (pun intended). That'll take a few hours off of the chopping-regluing-grumbling process.

Do Spinefists suck less on anything else, like Raveners? They're still Assault X, aren't they?

Yeah, when I run my nids I often think to myself: "What I *really* need right now are a bunch of S3 shots"

I suppose DSing Raveners would be ok with them; a unit of 5+ Raveners could potentially wipe a unit of GEQs with shooting when they land. But I'd much rather arm the Ravs with Deathspitters for longer range, higher S and the chance to pop rear armor.

They're definitey viable on Raveners -- I did some analysis here:

http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/276563.page

Basically 'cos on Raveners, spinefists get more shots than deathspitters AND are twin-linked, spinefists are about as good at shooting infantry.

Devourer math:

20 Gaunts w devourers 200p
60 shots 30 hits
GEQ 20w, ~13 kills = 80p guardsmen
MEQ 15w, 5 kills = 80p tac
TEQ 15w, 2.5 kills = 100p termies
ORK 15w, 12.5 kills = 75p boys

40 Gaunts with fleshborers 200p
40 shots 20 hits
GEQ ~13w, 13kills = 80p guardsmen
MEQ 10w, ~3kills = 48p marines
TEQ 10w, ~1,5 kills = 60p Termies
ORK 10w, 10 kills = 60p boys

The 40 borer gaunts will be able to hold more objectives, do a lot more damage in an assault (esp considering buffs from Tervigons etc) and screen twice as much. They will however be bogged down by lack of space on the table, get bunched up and flamed/blasted etc. They take up two FOCs and needs two pods if they want to deepstrike.

Also, a flanking or dropping unit might be able to destroy something valuable and slightly fragile. Once in a blue they might even be in a position to survive until they need to take that IB test :-)

Since I play an infantry horde army, I'd actually consider equipping some Devilgaunts in order to save room to maneuver on the board, since the difference otherwise is not that big.

This is a sign of a good codex. Tricky decisions to be made. I like it.

Yes, spinefists are still Assault X. The only weapon in the codex. It has to compete with Devourers S4 AP- and Deathspitters S5 AP5 for an additional 5p. Let me make some calculations:

8 Raveners with Spinefist: 240p
32 shots, 24 hits
GEQ 12w, 12 kills
MEQ 8W, ~3 kills
TEQ 8W, ~1 kill
ORK 8W, 8 kills

8 Raveners with Devourers: 240p
24 shots, 12 hits
GEQ 8W, ~5 kills
MEQ 6W, 2 kills
TEQ 6W, 1 kill
ORK 6W, 5 kills

7 Raveners with Deathspitters: 240p
21 shots, 11 hits
GEQ 9W, 9 kills
MEQ 8W, ~3 kills
TEQ 8W, ~1 kill
ORK 8W, 8 kills

Seems like the Spinefist comes up on top for Raveners. I think the shorter range doesn't really matter, because if you are between 12" and 18" away, you probably want to run, hoping get a charge, rather than shoot.

EDIT: Ian beat me to it :-)
And I was reminded that Pinning is not a Morale chack, so Devourers doesn't help there :-/

Thanks for the math!

Rear shots on vehicles are an important use for DSing Nids, so I guess Deathspitters' utility probably makes up for that single lost body on the field. Well, officially no use for Spinefists whatsoever. Thanks, GW.

Mellon wrote:Devourer math:

The 40 borer gaunts will be able to hold more objectives, do a lot more damage in an assault (esp considering buffs from Tervigons etc) and screen twice as much. They will however be bogged down by lack of space on the table, get bunched up and flamed/blasted etc. They take up two FOCs and needs two pods if they want to deepstrike.

Also, a flanking or dropping unit might be able to destroy something valuable and slightly fragile. Once in a blue they might even be in a position to survive until they need to take that IB test :-)

Since I play an infantry horde army, I'd actually consider equipping some Devilgaunts in order to save room to maneuver on the board, since the difference otherwise is not that big.

The big difference in my mind is the 18" range. With that you will be able to shoot a lot more, and they become much more valuable. It is very tricky to use a 12" range weapon.

Thanks for the math Mellon, that is very helpfull. [edited rest, that'll teach me to stop posting in haste]


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Great, just noticed a critical error in my last post. I meant to ask for the math on warrior shootting with support from the Prime. Sorry about the confusion

It would be interesting to know how much the prime's bonus adds.

Fleshborer seems to be the happy medium.

Devxcil wrote:Thanks for the math Mellon, that is very helpfull. [edited rest, that'll teach me to stop posting in haste]


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Great, just noticed a critical error in my last post. I meant to ask for the math on warrior shootting with support from the Prime. Sorry about the confusion

It would be interesting to know how much the prime's bonus adds.

You are welcome. I'm happy for any excuse to calculate simple probabilities :-)

OK, warrior shooting with support from the Prime:
Generally speaking, a warrior unit will do 33% more damage if they have the prime bonus (goes from hitting on 4+ to hitting on 3+). Also, the prime can shoot things.

So lets make two shooty squads: I'll calculate hits done per point invested.
First Squad: 9 Tyranid Warriors with Deathspitters. This unit costs 315 points.
Second Squad: 6 Tyranid warriors with Deathspitters and a Tyranid Prime with Deathspitter. This unit costs 295p Only a bit less than the nine above.
Third squad, maxing things out: 9 Tyranid Warriors with Deathspitters and a Tyranid Prime with Deathspitter. Cost: 400p

First squad gets 27 shots = 13.5 hits. Each hit costs you 23p
Second squad gets 21 shots = 14 hits. Each hit costs you 21p
Third Squad gets 30 shots = 20 hit. Each hit costs you 20p

No real difference in hits done per point of cost. So it mostly comes down to keeping the Prime there to make the unit scary in close combat, and once in a while place a s8 or s9 hit on him to keep away an ID. If you have a HQ slot to spare, it is a good thing to use it for this.

So what will one Deathspitter hit do then? I'll calculate what effect 12 hits would have:
GEQ: 10W, 10 kills
MEQ: 8W, ~3 kills
TEQ: 8W, ~1 kill
ORK: 8W, 8 kills

Was that something like what you were looking for?

Keeping my 28 Gants with Spinefists. I have no intention of re arming them and thinking abusing counts as for something else to be unlike me.

All in all, they do quite well with other nastier things nearby, they rarely all die.

Mellon, that's exactly what I was looking for! Thanks for taking the time to do it.

I'm surprised... wow... the prime actually looks well balanced for its cost. I had not actually expected that from GW the choice between taking a prime vs more bodies actually becomes an interesting one, but Primes are also good value in any case. I think I'll be making a second Prime for my force.


Can I request one more set of calculations from you, a bit of a harder one? I first dismissed Venom Cannons and thought I'd go purely with cheaper Barbed Stranglers as heavies. I've been reconsidering that since yesterday, but I still can't wrap my head properly around how useful each will be.

Ignoring that the Venom Cannon can glance av12, how do the two weapons compare on hitting and killing various infantry types?

Devxcil wrote:

Can I request one more set of calculations from you, a bit of a harder one? I first dismissed Venom Cannons and thought I'd go purely with cheaper Barbed Stranglers as heavies. I've been reconsidering that since yesterday, but I still can't wrap my head properly around how useful each will be.

Ignoring that the Venom Cannon can glance av12, how do the two weapons compare on hitting and killing various infantry types?

Allrighty, this one is a bit trickier, because the effectiveness on blast templates depends on how your targets are spread out. So I'll make a small tutorial on how blast marker effectivity works. If you really want to understand this, and get a feeling for how it works, go grab a handful of 25mm-based miniatures and the small and large blastmarker and set up the descriptions I do below. Then place the blast marker and roll the scatter, to see what happens. Repeat about 20-50 times for each setup. Maybe even write down your statistics. If you want to, you can repeat this excercise with different sizes of bases. Just to see how much difference a bit base does. In this math all scatters that I talk about are the ones you get AFTER reduction for BS. I will make a table below to let you see how much difference BS makes (hint: not that much)

For reference: the small blastmarker is 3" across = 1,5" from center to edge. The large one is 5" across =2,5" from center to edge.

First setup, maximum spread, singe line: Set up a squad in a single line with exactly 2" between base edges. If you have expensive models in small units (warriors etc) this is the way to set them up.
Attacking wiht a small blast: On a scatter-HIT you will hit exactly one model. If you have a lucky scatter along the line you might hit two models, but most scatters larger than 1" will just make you miss.
With the large blast you will hit eactly three models on a scatter-HIT. Most scatters will reduce this numbers. Scatters along the line and/or shorter than 2" will still grant you at least one hit.

Second setup, base to base, single line: Set up a squad in a single straight line, with base to base contact. If your models have a lot of parts sticking out outside the base, like many tyranids do, it can be tricky to put them this close.
Attacking with a small blast: On a scatter-HIT you will hit three models. If you claim to be able to hit more, you are cheating. The small blast marker is supposed to be exactly over the middle of the target model, and from there to the edge of its neighbours the distance is exactly 1,5". Most scattters will seriously reduce the number of hits. There is however one lucky scatter where you deviate at a slight angle to the line and just a few inches, that might let you cover 4 models. But that chance is mostly academical.
Attacking with a large blast. On a scatter hit you will hit five models. Most scatters will seriously reduce the number of hits. Same as above, there is a "golden scatter" that is very unlikely to happen that might let you hit six models.

Third setup, maximum spread, hexagon grid: Set up a squad, preferrably 20+ models, in a hexagon grid. Start with placing one model in the middle, then place 6 other models in a circle around this center one. All distances should be exactly 2" from base edge to the nearest base edge. Then place more models around, so that all distances are kept at 2" and you get as dense a cluster as possible. This will be a hexagon grid (if I managed to explain the setup properly, it looks a bit like the honey-comb of a bee-hive...). Theoretically speaking, if you want to minimize your losses from blast and template weapons this is the way you want to deploy your gaunts and similar models that comes in large units. In practice they become very unvieldy when placed this way, so most games keep a tighter formation. Anyhow, I find it useful to have a small piece of card that is exactly 2" along one edge, and use it to space up my units when I have a lot of room (and time) to move them about.
Attacking with a small blast: On a scatter HIT, you will hit exactly one model. Most short scatters actually have a good chance of increasing this to 2 hits. Short scatters are any scatters that lets the balst marker stay within the "borders" of the unit. Long scatters will give you no hits.
Attacking with a large blast: On a scatter HIT you will hit 7 models (the one under the template and the 6 in the circle around) Any short scatters will just reduce this a little. A long scatter will give you no hits.

Fourth setup, minimum spread, hexagon grid: This is how models will stand when they have arrived into play by use of the Deep Strike rules. Make a large squad again. One model in the middle, then make a full circle around it, as close as possible. If your models have very few parts that stick out outside of their bases, you will get 6 models in this circle. If you have a lot of things in the way, you can get seven (or maybe even more) models in this circle. Then keep stacking models as close as possible. This is the best possible target for blast markers (and templates...)
Attacking with a small blast: On a scatter-HIT, you will hit the model in the middle, and everyone in the inner circle. Usually this means 7 or 8 models. How bad a deviation is depends entirely on how big the unit is. A short deviation will give you just as many hits, but most of the time a short scatter is only 1-2", since the unit is so compact. Any longer scatters will give you much fever hits.
Atacking with a large blast: On a scatter-HIT you will hit the model in the middle, everyone in the first circle and everyone in the second circle. This can be a lot lof models, depending on how tight you placed them. Around 15 hits is not a problem. Unless the unit is huge (30+), almost any scatter over 1" will reduce the number of hits.

Fifth setup, less than 1" spread, random grid: Place a big unit just about as you would place it during a battle. A sort of unshapely blob with a bit more than 1" between models is what I usually expect. It makes a huge difference for the small blast marker if the distance between models is less than 1" or more than 1". So always try to place your models more than 1" apart. Start with a setup with less than 1" between models:
Attack this with a small blast: If you move the marker around a bit, you will probably find one or more target model that lets you hit a total of three or four models, if you roll a hit on the scatter. Short scatters will probably reduce this number of hits by one, or not at all.
Attacks with a large blast: Move the marker around a bit, you will probably find one or more targets models that lets you hit roughly eight models, if you roll a hit. Short scatters will probably reduce this by one, or not at all. Please note that as long as the spread between bases is less than 1", the large and the small blast will do roughly as many hits.

Sixth setup, more than 1" spread, random grid: Place as in fifth, but make sure the distance between models is roughtly 1,5". Mostly since the small blast marker will extend exactly one inch out from the target models base.
Attacks with a small blast: On a scatter hit you will hit exactly one model. On a short scatter this can increase to two models. This setup makes frag missiles just as effective as a bolter shot against your gaunts. That's a good thing :-)
Attacks with a large blast: On a scatter hit you will hit roughly 6 to eight models. For the large blast the difference between less than 1" spread and more than 1" spread is not huge.

That's about it for setups. I'm out of time now, so I'll do some statistics on scatter distances later tonight. I hope this helped a bit.

I hope you're going to submit this to a journal for publication. Maybe Nature: 40k? Good stuff.

Thank you S&R. I'm glad you like it. I'm aware it can be considered pretty overdone, but I'm something of a statistics geek, I like doing math :-)

So the statistics of the scatter distance:
First of all, you do always have a 1/3 chance to roll a HIT on your scatter die. This effect is a sort of equalizer between units with high and low BS.

As for distance rolled. Here is a list of the different possible results of rolling 2D6, and the chance of them happening, given both as chance on 36 and as a shortened possibility. All percentages are approximations.

2 - 1/36 - 1/36 - 2.8%
3 - 2/36 - 1/18 - 5.6%
4 - 3/36 - 1/12 - 8.3%
5 - 4/36 - 1/9 - 11.2%
6 - 5/36 - ~1/7 - 13.9%
7 - 6/36 - 1/6 - 16.7%
8 - 5/36 - ~1/7 - 13.9%
9 - 4/36 - 1/9 - 11.2%
10 - 3/36 - 1/12 - 8.3%
11 - 2/36 - 1/18 - 5.6%
12 - 1/36 - 1/36 - 2.8%

When rollig for scatter distance you want to roll as low as possible. What we are interested in here is the chance of rolling equal to or less than a target number. This target number is usually the firing models BS. Many times it is quite allright to get 1" or 2" of deviation, without loosing a significant numebr of hits, in that case the target number is BS+1 or BS+2. To find the chance of rolling equal to or less than a number, all you have to do is add upp the probabilities up to and including that number. I'll make a table here. Once again. All percentages are approximations, I've done most of them in my head so don't trust all the small digits. As a bonus: This list can be used to see the likelihood of passing a Ld test.

Chance to roll target number or lower.
2 - 1/36 - 2.8%
3 - 3/36 - 8.4%
4 - 6/36 - 16.7%
5 - 10/36 - 27.8%
6 - 15/36 - 41.7%
7 - 21/36 - 58.3%
8 - 26/36 - 72.2%
9 - 30/36 - 83.3%
10 - 33/36 - 91.6%
11 - 35/36 - 97.2%
12 - 36/36 - 100%

Now I'll do some behind the scenes math, because it's so much faster than explaining. I'll make a table give the total chance of hitting your intended target, expressed as a list dependent on your Target number. This chance will include the 33% chance to roll a hit on the scatter die. As stated above, this target number will most likely be your BS, maybe +1 or +2 depending on how large the unit you are aiming for is. Just measure the distance in inches that the blast can scatter without having some part of it outside the target unit. If the unit is not circular or you are not aiming for a model in the middle, just take the shortest distance.


2 - 35.2%
3 - 39.0%
4 - 44.4%
5 - 51.8%
6 - 61.2%
7 - 72,1%
8 - 81.5%
9 - 88.9%
10 - 94.3%
11 - 98,1%
12 - 100%

So, as you can see, the difference in chance to place the blast marker exactly right between BS3 and BS4 is roughly 5%. That is not a huge difference at all. Feel free to copy these statistics out to a note and bring to your games. Or at least think about it when you create your armies.


Anyhow, the original question was "what about the Venom Cannon?" And I'll try to make a valuation of that as well. This I'll do as a "percentage of models hit that will die". Then you can use that knowledge together with the above statistics to make an informed guess as to if you will be able to hit enough models to make the ugrade worth the investment in points. However, at this time, I'm at a friends house and didn't bring my codex. So I'll get back to you on that subject, maybe later tonight.

Thanks math guys this has opened my eyes to what are actually are the best weapon upgrades. Before i thought that devourers on gaunts are a bit too expensive but it seems now that they're worth it and can do considerably more damage. Ravener spinefists seem good too but i still think i'll go for devourers as they have superior range and stregnth and the -1LD for a morale test is kinda nifty too.

OK, here goes some math on the big tyranid blast weapons. I have chosen these weapons since they are common "heavy" weapons in the Tyranid army, and there has been a lot of discussions about them on the boards.
Venom Cannon, 36", S6, AP4, Assault 1, blast
Heavy Venom Cannon, 36", S9, AP4, Assault 1, blast
Barbed Strangler, 36", S4, AP5, Assault 1, Large blast, pinning
Stranglethorn Cannon, 36", S6, AP5, Assault 1, Large blast, pinning

I will do this by calculating the number of effective wounds that will result from 100 hits with each weapon. Combine that number with the above models for number of hits per shot if you want to know the effectivity of each weapon.
Each weapon will be applied to a few targets: A guardsman, a marine, a terminator, an ork, a tyranid warrior, a SM bike/thunderwolf (T5, 3+), a carnifex (T6, 3+) and a wraithlord (T8, 3+). I will not discuss damage against targets with an armor value. Some rounding has not been done exactly.

Venom cannon. 100 hits gives:
GEQ: 83w, 83 ew, will cause instant death.
MEQ: 83w, 28 ew
TEQ: 83w, 14 ew
ORK: 83w, 83 ew
TYW: 83w, 83 ew
TWC: 67w, 22 ew
FEX: 50w, 17ew
WRL: 17w, 6ew

Heavy Venom Cannon. 100 hits gives:
GEQ: 83w, 83ew, ID
MEQ: 83w, 28ew, ID
TEQ: 83w, 14ew, ID
ORK: 83w, 83ew, ID
TYW: 83w, 83ew, ID will make this into 249ew if you shoot at unharmed TYWs
TWC: 83w, 28ew
FEX: 83w, 28ew
WRL:67w, 22ew

Barbed Strangler. 100 hits gives:
GEQ: 67w, 67ew
MEQ: 50w, 17ew
TEQ: 50w, 9ew
ORK: 50w, 50ew
TYW: 50w, 25ew
TWC: 33w, 11ew
FEX: 17w, 3ew
WRL: 0w, 0ew

Stranglethorn Cannon. 100 hits gives:
GEQ: 83w, 83ew, ID
MEQ: 83w, 28ew
TEQ: 83w, 14ew
ORK: 83w, 83ew
TYW: 83w, 42ew
TWC: 67w, 22ew
FEX: 50w, 17ew
WRL: 17w, 6ew

So, to the question: is a venom cannon worth the points?
Lets see how many hits we need to do with each shot from a venom cannon to make it just as good as a Deathspitter. Now it does cost a bit more, so it should in all honesty work a bit better than a deathspitter, but we will start with calculating the break even point. I'll start by calculating the efectivity of a single deathspitter. I will then dividing the resultant number of wounds with the effectivity of the venom cannon against this type of target. For example, I start with a BS3 Deathspitter shooting at a guardsman. This causes 1.25 wounds. I know that a VC has an effectivity of 83% against GEQ, so to make just as many wounds a VC-shot would have to hit 1.25/0.83=1.5 guardsmen on average. If you feel you can do that (based once again on our discussion about blasts a few posts up) then the VC is of equal value to the deathspitter for the given target. I'll also add the matching number of Barbed Strangler hits. With BS4, then just multiply the number of VC or BS hits needed to even out with 1.33.

One BS3 Deathspitter: 3 shots, 1.5 hits.
GEQ: 1.25w, 1.25ew = 1.5 VC hits = 1.87 BS hits
MEQ: 1w, 0.33ew = 1.18 VC hits = 1.94 BS hits
TEQ: 1w, 0.17ew = 1.18 VC hits = 1.84 BS hits
ORK: 1w, 1ew = 1.2 VC hits = 2 BS hits
TYW: 1w, 0.5ew = 0,6 VC hits = 2 BS hits
TWC: 0.75w, 0.25ew = 1,14 VC hits = 2.27 BS hits
FEX: 0.5w, 0.17ew = 1 VC hit = 5.7 BS hits
WRL: 0.25w, 0.08ew = 1.33 VC hits = can not be harmed by a BS


From the above list we can see that a VC is useful over a Deathspitter in a few distinct situations:
*If I know I'll be shooting at things with a 4+ save. This means: Tau, a few kinds of eldar, SPM scouts, tyranid warriors etc.
*If I can reliably place around 2 hits per shot with it. Looking at our theories for hitting with blasts a bit above, this is rarely the case.
*If I want to shoot at things between 18" and 36" away. This happens quite often.
*If I want to be able to hurt AV12 vehicles. This means Tau, eldar and some guard vehicles. The odds are not favourable though. Especially not since the VC is punished by an extra -1 on the damage chart on all non-open-top targets. I need 12 hits to likely cause one effective damage, that's around 20-30 VC shots, depending on how large the vehicle is and my BS. Not worth it!
*If I want to be able to hurt T9 targets. 12-18 shots needed per wound inflicted, before armor saves.

We can also see that the BS is useful over a Deathspitter in a few distinct situations.
*If I can reliably place around 3 hits per shot with it. Looking at our models above, this is likely to happen if I use this unit mostly against infantry. Especially likely against armies that regularly run large units.
*If I want to shoot at things between 18" and 36" away. This happens quite often.
*If I want to pin things. I often want to pin units that I am about to assault, because it negates the effect of assaulting through cover.
*If I will not shoot at things with T8 or AV 11. Deathspitters are pretty meh against those targets anyhow, so no worries there.

My summary is: The VC is only worth it if you know you will fight lots of units with 4+ saves, or if you know your opponents will be clumped up a lot due to restricting terrain, huge units, lots of deepstrikes etc etc.
The BS is generally a good upgrade, unless you are specifically going to use the warrior unit to hunt single targets, for example by Spodding behind enemy tanks etc.

Allright, that turned out to be quite a lot of text and some really useful information. It was good to get these things sorted for myself. Maybe I should even make this into a dakka article to spred it further... I hope you enjoyed the article. Further questions are welcome.