Switch Theme:

Eldar vs Flyers: Mathhammer  [RSS] Share on facebook Share on Twitter Submit to Reddit
»
Author Message
Advert


Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you:
  • No adverts like this in the forums anymore.
  • Times and dates in your local timezone.
  • Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance.
  • Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely.
  • Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net.
If you are already a member then feel free to login now.




Made in us
Fresh-Faced New User




I had some fun this weekend creating a bunch of functions in Python to simulate multiple attempts at our stuff shooting at flyers. This all assumes that the flyer will evade. The percentage is the chance for that unit to destroy a flyer by either stripping all hull points off or rolling an explodes result. I know in some cases like against a Night Scythe a weapon destroyed result is just as good I wanted to have this information against all flyers. Each percentage was calculated from 10,000 trials.

10 Warp Spiders, not Guided
vs AV 10 - 46.36%
vs AV 11 - 33.53%
vs AV 12 - 18.89%

10 Warp Spiders, Guided
vs AV 10 - 74.36%
vs AV 11 - 58.32%
vs AV 12 - 34.36%

Wave Serpent with TL-Scatter Lasers and Serpent Shield
vs AV 10 - 22.35%
vs AV 11 - 12.79%
vs AV 12 - 5.06%
vs Heldrake - 3.11%

3 War Walkers with two Scatter Lasers each, not Guided
vs AV 10 - 23.44%
vs AV 11 - 11.89%
vs AV 12 - 0.91%

3 War Walkers with two Bright Lances each, not Guided
vs AV 10 - 21.16%
vs AV 11 - 15.28%
vs AV 12 - 10.75%

3 War Walkers with two Scatter Lasers each, Guided
vs AV 10 - 53.85%
vs AV 11 - 28.73%
vs AV 12 - 4.54%

3 War Walkers with two Bright Lances each, Guided
vs AV 10 - 36.44%
vs AV 11 - 27.49%
vs AV 12 - 18.66%

War Walkers with Flak EML, no Guide
vs AV 10 - 36.25%
vs AV 11 - 22.76%
vs AV 12 - 10.7174%

War Walkers with Flak EML, with Guide
vs AV 10 - 54.29%
vs AV 11 - 35.20%
vs AV 12 - 35.14%

War Walkers with Scatter Laser and Flak EML, no Guide
vs AV 10 - 21.81%
vs AV 11 - 12.94%
vs AV 12 - 5.38%

War Walkers with Scatter Laser and Bright Lance, no Guide
vs AV 10 - 7.55%
vs AV 11 - 4.33%
vs AV 12 - 1.46%

War Walkers with Scatter Laser and Flak EML, with Guide
vs AV 10 - 29.995%
vs AV 11 - 17.284%
vs AV 12 - 6.64%

War Walkers with Scatter Laser and Bright Lance, with Guide
vs AV 10 - 11.851%
vs AV 11 - 6.81%
vs AV 12 - 2.02%

Crimson Hunter with no Exarch, not Guided
vs AV 10 - 60.97%
vs AV 11 - 56.32%
vs AV 12 - 46.8%

Crimson Hunter with no Exarch, Guided
vs AV 10 - 79.29%
vs AV 11 - 73.36%
vs AV 12 - 63.6%

Crimson Hunter with an Exarch, not Guided
vs AV 10 - 74.69%
vs AV 11 - 70.37%
vs AV 12 - 60.94%

Crimson Hunter with an Exarch, Guided
vs AV 10 - 85.1%
vs AV 11 - 80.19%
vs AV 12 - 71.22%

Quad Gun manned by a BS 4 model
vs AV 10 - 29.68%
vs AV 11 - 17.64%
vs AV 12 - 8.79%

Quad Gun manned by a BS 5 model
vs AV 10 - 35.19%
vs AV 11 - 20.88%
vs AV 12 - 8.93%

Reaper Exarch w/ Fast Shot using an Icarus Lascannon, Guide
vs AV 10 - 40.94%
vs AV 11 - 33.58%
vs AV 12 - 25.90%
vs Heldrake - 17.64%

Reaper Exarch w/ Fast Shot using an Icarus Lascannon, with Guide
vs AV 10 - 46.70%
vs AV 11 - 38.43%
vs AV 12 - 29.79%
vs Heldrake - 20.46%

As you can see the Crimson Hunter is far and above any other entry in our codex for killing flyers. Running a distant second are Warp Spiders, guided or not, followed by War Walkers with Bright Lances.

If you see any problems or think of any suggestions for improvements, let me know.

EDIT: Updated the numbers for Crimson Hunters. I had a 2 where a 1 should have been when calculating pen results and it skewed the numbers by 3-7%. I added results for War Walkers with Scatter + EML, War Walkers with Scatter + Bright Lance and Icarus Lascannon manned by a Reaper Exarch with Fast Shot.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2013/06/20 15:30:04


 
   
Made in us
Fate-Controlling Farseer





Fort Campbell

I think I'm missing something.

10 Warp Spiders equals 20 str 6 shots. Unguided they got 18.89% chance against AV12.

3 War Walkers with SL's get 24 str 6 shots. Unguided they got .91% chance against AV12.

Where is the disconnect?

1st Legion Dark Angles

Eldar Craftworld Eth-Kariel
Spear of Kornous - High Elf Expeditionary Army (Retired)
B Company 502nd PIR 101st Airborne Division - Flames of War 
   
Made in us
Fresh-Faced New User




Good question. Looking over my functions now.

EDIT: Monofilament weapons are +1 strength to vehicles.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/06/18 00:44:37


 
   
Made in us
Regular Dakkanaut




 djones520 wrote:
I think I'm missing something.

10 Warp Spiders equals 20 str 6 shots. Unguided they got 18.89% chance against AV12.

3 War Walkers with SL's get 24 str 6 shots. Unguided they got .91% chance against AV12.

Where is the disconnect?


Spiders are S7 against vehicles.
   
Made in us
Fate-Controlling Farseer





Fort Campbell

Angelic wrote:
 djones520 wrote:
I think I'm missing something.

10 Warp Spiders equals 20 str 6 shots. Unguided they got 18.89% chance against AV12.

3 War Walkers with SL's get 24 str 6 shots. Unguided they got .91% chance against AV12.

Where is the disconnect?


Spiders are S7 against vehicles.


You are 100% correct. That is news to me, and makes me so happy to learn.

1st Legion Dark Angles

Eldar Craftworld Eth-Kariel
Spear of Kornous - High Elf Expeditionary Army (Retired)
B Company 502nd PIR 101st Airborne Division - Flames of War 
   
Made in us
Regular Dakkanaut




Yeah, it's depressing but I feel like I have to take my own flyers to be safe from the damn things. That or learn to love Tau allies.

Multiple Serpents can work together, but they're just so much more effective against ground targets that it's hard to justify. Guided Spiders are probably the most cost-effective choice, and they do have decent ability to move around to shoot at rear armor, but they're hard to rely on vs Helldrakes for obvious reasons. And if you're playing a Mech list you might not want those T3 models running around all game.

This misses a few things, though. If you're psyker-heavy, Doom is an option, and it's not going to help the Hunter at all. If you're taking Dark Reapers anyway, the Exarch is an efficient AA option, though they suffer from the same Helldrake problem. I guess you could hide them in a Serpent, though this prevents you from Guiding them. Fire Dragons work similarly for a lot fewer points - 5+ S8 AP1 shots is going to have a pretty good chance of dropping a flyer if guided even if the squad isn't within 6".
   
Made in us
Foolproof Falcon Pilot





Crimson Hunter cannot be correct.

With exarch and guided vs AV12:
4* (5/6+1/6*5/6)*(1/3+2/3*1/3)*(2/3)*(1/3)=48%

Thats the chance of getting a destroyed result. You strip 1.94 HP on average. Have ~10% chance of stripping 3 HP. Therefore you are ~58% of killing a AV12 flier

"Ask not the Eldar a question, for they will give you three answers, all of which are true and terrifying to know."
-Inquisitor Czevak
~14k
~10k
~5k corsairs
~3k DKOK 
   
Made in us
Battlefortress Driver with Krusha Wheel






no reaper exarch with fast shot on a icarus lascannon ?

10000 points 7000
6000
5000
5000
2000
 
   
Made in us
Regular Dakkanaut




 zephoid wrote:
Crimson Hunter cannot be correct.

With exarch and guided vs AV12:
4* (5/6+1/6*5/6)*(1/3+2/3*1/3)*(2/3)*(1/3)=48%

Thats the chance of getting a destroyed result. You strip 1.94 HP on average. Have ~10% chance of stripping 3 HP. Therefore you are ~58% of killing a AV12 flier


I'm not sure what you're doing there.

First, the exarch can't reroll failed pens if they glance. Second, don't its AP2 weapons only destroy an enemy flyer on half of the damage results rather than 2/3? Last, how are you getting a percentage out of that? You seem to be trying to compute an expected number of destroyed results. The actual chance to destroy will be lower.

Edit: Also you multiply by 1/3 at the end? Oh, I see. The 2/3 is the save and the 1/3 is the regular damage table result, but it should be 1/2.

Edit2: I'm getting about a 25% chance of stripping 3 hull points and a 50% chance of destroying it outright. Those aren't independent, though. 7% chance of stripping 3 hull points without destroying it outright, so 57% total. I have absolutely no idea how you got that close.

This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2013/06/18 02:13:18


 
   
Made in us
Foolproof Falcon Pilot





You are correct about the glances, i forgot this isnt true reroll pens. Pens with AP2 destroy on 1/3. The 2/3 is the chance you get a pen through a 5+ cover save. This is the chance you get one destroyed vehicle result. I prefer this calculation method due to easy math on squadrons or calculation variance on getting the single destroyed result you need. The two calculations on chance to destroy a vehicle are normally similar until you hit ~65-70% chance to destroy. However, this is in no way a 77+% chance to destroy a AV12 flier with a crimson hunter so that shouldnt matter.

4* (5/6+1/6*5/6)*(1/3+1/2*1/3)*(2/3)*(1/3)=43% chance for a destroyed result. Thats even less than before.

"Ask not the Eldar a question, for they will give you three answers, all of which are true and terrifying to know."
-Inquisitor Czevak
~14k
~10k
~5k corsairs
~3k DKOK 
   
Made in us
Regular Dakkanaut




Oh, you're right about the table. Only a 6 on the table destroys something, so it's 1/3 for AP2.

So then it's 36.7% to Explode and 29% to strip 3 Hull Points (I had a mistake in hull points earlier). But only a 13% to strip 3 Hull Points without rolling an Explode. So 50% to destroy.

But yeah, something's wrong with the script being run.
   
Made in us
Fresh-Faced New User




 zephoid wrote:
Crimson Hunter cannot be correct.

With exarch and guided vs AV12:
4* (5/6+1/6*5/6)*(1/3+2/3*1/3)*(2/3)*(1/3)=48%

Thats the chance of getting a destroyed result. You strip 1.94 HP on average. Have ~10% chance of stripping 3 HP. Therefore you are ~58% of killing a AV12 flier


I'll post the formula I used for this tomorrow. I came up with all of this when I was at work and I forgot email the script to myself.

 G00fySmiley wrote:
no reaper exarch with fast shot on a icarus lascannon ?


I'll add this tomorrow.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/06/18 02:43:54


 
   
Made in us
Dakka Veteran





What about War Walkers with a SL & EML with flakk?

"The objective of the game is to win. The purpose of the game is to have fun. The two should not be confused."



 ErikSetzer wrote:

Or you can just claim it's all bad luck and you're really the best player in the world if not for those dice and/or cards.
 
   
Made in us
Sneaky Striking Scorpion





 zephoid wrote:
Crimson Hunter cannot be correct.

With exarch and guided vs AV12:
4* (5/6+1/6*5/6)*(1/3+2/3*1/3)*(2/3)*(1/3)=48%

Thats the chance of getting a destroyed result. You strip 1.94 HP on average. Have ~10% chance of stripping 3 HP. Therefore you are ~58% of killing a AV12 flier


That is not how you determine the chance to destroy. What you have there is the average number of explodes results.

The chance of getting at least one explodes result is:

1-(1-(35/36*1/2*2/3*1/3))^4 = 36.7%

Z=strip 1 HP in one shot=35/36*3/4*2/3=48.6%

1-((1-Z)^4+4*(1-Z)^3*Z+6*(1-Z)^2*Z^2)=chance to strip at least 3HP=29.2%

Then you have to calculate the chance to immobilize twice:

Y=immobilize in one shot=35/36*1/2*2/3*1/6=5.4%
1-((1-Y)^4+4*(1-Y)^3*Y)=chance to at least immobilize twice=1.63%

To find the final chance to destroy

(1-at least one explodes)*(1-at least 3 hp stripped)*(1-at least two immobilizes)
(1-.367)*(1-.292)*(1-.0163)=44.1% chance to destroy

   
Made in au
Battleship Captain





Perth

Deleted. Because I am wrong.

How did I not notice that War Walkers can take EMLs with Flakk?

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2013/06/18 04:19:08


Man, I wish there was a real Black Library where I could get a Black Library Card and take out Black Library Books without having to buy them. Of course, late fees would be your soul. But it would be worth it. - InquisitorMack 
   
Made in us
[DCM]
The World Killer.




The best State-Texas

 Death By Monkeys wrote:
 warpspider89 wrote:
What about War Walkers with a SL & EML with flakk?

While he could potentially do WWs with SL & EML, the only model in the list that can take Flakk with an EML is a Dark Reaper Exarch.


Warwalkers can take flakk. Not cost effective, but they can take it.

4000
4000
6000+ Order. Unity. Obedience.
Just starting! 
   
Made in us
Dakka Veteran





 Sasori wrote:
 Death By Monkeys wrote:
 warpspider89 wrote:
What about War Walkers with a SL & EML with flakk?

While he could potentially do WWs with SL & EML, the only model in the list that can take Flakk with an EML is a Dark Reaper Exarch.


Warwalkers can take flakk. Not cost effective, but they can take it.


They definitely are expensive but, provided that you only take one EML/model + SL, are almost acceptably priced for something that can threaten infantry, tanks, and planes while popping in and out of cover (ideally, cover that blocks LOS). It would be very accurate firepower

I'd be interested in the math on its effectiveness.

"The objective of the game is to win. The purpose of the game is to have fun. The two should not be confused."



 ErikSetzer wrote:

Or you can just claim it's all bad luck and you're really the best player in the world if not for those dice and/or cards.
 
   
Made in au
Battleship Captain





Perth

The costs add up quickly, but from a purely effectiveness standpoint, you're much better off going with dual EMLs than EML/SL - because remember, you still have to shoot the SL with Snap Shots and have to hit with them to get TL for the EML. For purely AA duty, double EMLs is what you need. And while you lose some versatility by not having the SL for non-AA tasks, you still have the other EML fire modes. That said, it will be pricy!

Man, I wish there was a real Black Library where I could get a Black Library Card and take out Black Library Books without having to buy them. Of course, late fees would be your soul. But it would be worth it. - InquisitorMack 
   
Made in au
War Walker Pilot with Withering Fire




 Death By Monkeys wrote:
The costs add up quickly, but from a purely effectiveness standpoint, you're much better off going with dual EMLs than EML/SL - because remember, you still have to shoot the SL with Snap Shots and have to hit with them to get TL for the EML. For purely AA duty, double EMLs is what you need. And while you lose some versatility by not having the SL for non-AA tasks, you still have the other EML fire modes. That said, it will be pricy!


Extremely pricey for an 2hp AV10 open-topped model. I'll just take more Wave Serpents I think.

8,000 pts and counting
1,000 points, now painting. 
   
Made in au
Emboldened Warlock




The crimson hunter is an air superiority fighter if ever I saw one. Yes it is a glass cannon; but using reserve manipulators (autarchs, scriers gaze, comms relay, etc) you can aid in its survival. Furthermore - you can use its vector dancer to keep it at arms length from other fighters and keep it on the board edge to avoid vector strikes.

The Exarch upgrade is beastly. Other methods of AA work in a pinch - guided warithguard, wave serpents and their shields, etc. But the hunter is solely designed to rip open flyers and then tanks. Even swapping the lances out for star cannons still leaves him to be quite nasty. Especially the ability to reroll armour pen vs flyers.

So far the effectiveness of 10 Wraithblades with Ghost Axes:
Tanked 2 Leman Russ squadrons (including the battle cannons and the triple plasma variant); whilst also getting wailed on by everything imaginable in a Fortress of Redemption. Only to get into CC with the tanks and open them up.
2000 points worth of Necrons with Forgeworld additions. Got into CC with a court of Lords and opened them up.
Killed a GUO.
Killed Angrath the Gargantuan Bloodthirster in an Apoc game (with the help of Iranna the Spirit Seer).
Ate a Hammerhead, pathfinders and scored after 3 turns of walking towards a 2000 point Tau gunline and overwatch!
And counting............ 
   
Made in us
Fresh-Faced New User




Sorry I didn't update today. I pretty much forgot to go to work to grab the script (I work only 4 days a week). Tomorrow I'm busy so I won't be able to update the list until Thursday. Hang tight until then folks.
   
Made in us
Fresh-Faced New User




I updated the numbers for Crimson Hunter and added some new entries.

As far as calculating the chances for a Crimson Hunter to do anything I do the following:

Roll seperately for Pulse Laser and Bright Lance hits
Roll to see if the hits penned or glanced. If neither then reroll.
Roll to see if they evaded the glances or pens
Roll to see the result of any pens that go through. On any result of 6 or better it flags the run as destroyed
Total up the number of hull points docked from the flyer. If 3+ then it flags the run as destroyed.
Add 1 to the total destroyed counter if the flag is true.

When I say roll I use the rndint fuction in python to simulate a die roll then compare it to a target number. If it's greater than or equal to the target number then I count it as a success. The percentages I've given are the average number of destroyed results out of all runs. Now obviously I don't take in account flyer squadrons. If you guys want to see that sort of thing I'll look into it.
   
Made in us
Horrific Howling Banshee




Gig Harbor, Washington

Might want to look into a Reaper Exarch with Fast Shot on a Quad Gun too. Statistically the Quad Gun blows the Icarus Lascannon out of the water on it's own.

1000 
   
Made in us
Battlefortress Driver with Krusha Wheel






Did the reaper numbers include the fact that jink saves are not allowed?

I must be rollong well above atatistical averagr because it seems to always bring down a flyer

10000 points 7000
6000
5000
5000
2000
 
   
Made in pl
Devastating Dark Reaper




Very interesting input.

Wave Serpent with TL-Scatter Lasers and Serpent Shield
vs AV 10 - 22.35%
vs AV 11 - 12.79%
vs AV 12 - 5.06%
vs Heldrake - 3.11%


Is the Serpent Shield counting as TL? If not, could you make another option where both weapons are TL?
And also possibly adding Shuriken Cannon to it?

I'd be very grateful if you did so.

4800 points of Eldar 85/41/7 W/L/D
Tournament only: 36/25/2 W/L/D 
   
Made in us
Ultramarine Chaplain with Hate to Spare





Upstate, New York

I was thinking about the dark reaper and the jink thing. If it lets you ensure the kill, that's fine. But sometimes the threat of being shot down makes them jink. And if they jink, it's all snapshots the following turn for them. If they don't get the jink save, they are just going fly straight, and if you fail to knock them out of the sky, fire at full effect next turn.

Ultramarines, 3rd Co. and friends, 12.5K+ Slowly growing 2Kish
Nevelon's Workbench: Ultramarines, Saim-Hann and other assorted oddities
 
   
Made in au
Emboldened Warlock




macexor wrote:
Very interesting input.

Wave Serpent with TL-Scatter Lasers and Serpent Shield
vs AV 10 - 22.35%
vs AV 11 - 12.79%
vs AV 12 - 5.06%
vs Heldrake - 3.11%


Is the Serpent Shield counting as TL? If not, could you make another option where both weapons are TL?
And also possibly adding Shuriken Cannon to it?

I'd be very grateful if you did so.


The serpent shield would be calculating the probability of getting laser lock off the TL'd scatter lasers.

So far the effectiveness of 10 Wraithblades with Ghost Axes:
Tanked 2 Leman Russ squadrons (including the battle cannons and the triple plasma variant); whilst also getting wailed on by everything imaginable in a Fortress of Redemption. Only to get into CC with the tanks and open them up.
2000 points worth of Necrons with Forgeworld additions. Got into CC with a court of Lords and opened them up.
Killed a GUO.
Killed Angrath the Gargantuan Bloodthirster in an Apoc game (with the help of Iranna the Spirit Seer).
Ate a Hammerhead, pathfinders and scored after 3 turns of walking towards a 2000 point Tau gunline and overwatch!
And counting............ 
   
Made in us
Fresh-Faced New User




 Nevelon wrote:
I was thinking about the dark reaper and the jink thing. If it lets you ensure the kill, that's fine. But sometimes the threat of being shot down makes them jink. And if they jink, it's all snapshots the following turn for them. If they don't get the jink save, they are just going fly straight, and if you fail to knock them out of the sky, fire at full effect next turn.


Then shoot at them with something else first?
   
Made in us
Fresh-Faced New User




macexor wrote:
Very interesting input.

Wave Serpent with TL-Scatter Lasers and Serpent Shield
vs AV 10 - 22.35%
vs AV 11 - 12.79%
vs AV 12 - 5.06%
vs Heldrake - 3.11%


Is the Serpent Shield counting as TL? If not, could you make another option where both weapons are TL?
And also possibly adding Shuriken Cannon to it?

I'd be very grateful if you did so.


This calculation takes into account the chance that it won't always trigger twin linked from Laser Lock.
   
Made in us
Awesome Autarch






San Diego, California

Love the math! Nice one.

Problem with the analysis on the Crimson Hunter though, is that it gets smoked the turn it comes in by pretty much any interceptor fire.

   
 
Forum Index » 40K Tactics
Go to: