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Don't know how many of you started by building and painting model tanks and airplanes but it looks like Heller and Airfix are both gone, with a few others not to far away. Humbrol has also gone (main paint manufacturer but I bet Vallejo killed them - who uses enamel paints - yeuch!!!). I will miss them, though I had mainly bought Tamiya - no doubt the biggest fish in a small drying out pond

Omen for the future? See any similarities? Smaller and smaller niche. Diminishing sales. competition from computer games etc. changing habits of the targeted younger demographic. Don't forget, there are estimates that the mini gaming niche dropped by anything upto 20% this last year.

If you take GW before LOTR strip out price rises, foreign exchange differences (to compare Euro/USD from 5yrs ago to today) and a small guestimate for current LOTR sales (I think I used 10% sales as LOTR) GW has had zero growth in comparison to this year. If LOTR is higher than 10% then we have negative unit sales growth. I wonder if the investers have done that part of there homework?

A bit geeky I know, but what is an accountant supposed to do when bored - paint?

 

sad to hear about Airfix, I had some of their toy soldiers when I was kid.

No wonder I couldn't find any of their old 1/144 scale aircraft a month or so ago.

That sucks.

Airfix first went bust in about 1980 and their problem then was the same as it is now. Their kits were not as good quality as the Japanese kits from companies like Tamiya and Hasegawa. Their product range was more limited and they released fewer new models.

All of which is not to say that poeple haven't moved away from physical hobbies to computer games, because obviously they have. There weren't any computer games in a meaningful sense in the 1970s.

However, if you look at sites like Hobby Link Japan (www.hlj.com) there seems to be a vibrant kit scene in Japan, with plenty of good quality kits coming on the market.

I haven't made a kit (except for 40K models) for about 12 years, but I would be sad to see them vanish.

Killkrazy is onto something. I don't think Airfix, Humbrol and others going into "administration" are particularly indicative of a vastly shringking market but rather a sign of the times: Eastern European & Asian companies are able to issue the same kits for cheaper, as well as produce new, better engineered kits with more accurate and sharper details than ever. Tamiya, Trumpeter, Dragon, Bandai, Italeri, Academy, Hasegawa and many other manufactures are releasing an ever increasing stream of kits, some brand new, some re-engineered reissues (or just plain repackaged reissues).

And while someone can spend a fortune building some of the new huge 1/35, 1/32, 1/24 and 1/16 scale AFV's, recovery vehicles, aircraft, and all sorts of other things with etched frets, resin after market parts and so and so forth, the basic standard kits for whatever particular model class are still inexpensive. Despite ruminations in the scale modelling communities about the lack of fresh blood, there is still a thriving customer base and one that isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

There's also interest from Revell (sp?) and Hornby, both of which are big companies. Hornby is doing well atm, and attempting to buy into the German market, which is the biggest for model trains.

The problem for airfix is that the vast majority of their range was moulded years ago. Many of the kits and minis they sell are exactly the same as the ones I built and played with 35 years ago. The foreign imports to the UK are cheaper, better moulds and of more modern subjects.

There's a wave of nostalgia for them from people my age who grew up with them but the simple fact is that didn't move with the times and their attempt to muscle in on the 40k market in the UK with the Russian Technolog stuff marketed as Robogear bombed hugely.

Another problem that I saw some months ago on a military modeling forum (whose name I forget at the moment) is that the lawyers have convinced a number of the companies who are building military vehicles that modeling companies are violating their IP. I discovered this when I was looking for a model of the Stryker APC. Apparently a number of companies have made it clear to the model manufacturers that they will have to pay for the rights to produce a kit of any of their vehicles. In some case this has proved to be cost prohibitive for the model producers. As I understand it, this is why there is currently no model of the Stryker. I'm hoping that this has changed since I saw it some months ago but I doubt it.

Posted By st.germaine on 09/07/2006 8:34 AM
Another problem that I saw some months ago on a military modeling forum (whose name I forget at the moment) is that the lawyers have convinced a number of the companies who are building military vehicles that modeling companies are violating their IP. I discovered this when I was looking for a model of the Stryker APC. Apparently a number of companies have made it clear to the model manufacturers that they will have to pay for the rights to produce a kit of any of their vehicles. In some case this has proved to be cost prohibitive for the model producers. As I understand it, this is why there is currently no model of the Stryker. I'm hoping that this has changed since I saw it some months ago but I doubt it.

That is just sick.  Lawers make Marcus sad.

"the first thing we do let's kill all the lawyers"

Henry VI

William Shakespeare

Good idea ole Will had there. Too bad no one took him up on it.

Arfix has been down and up about 4 times during my 25 modelling years
The old kits have been rereleased about a zillion times inders deveral companynames
Sofar I know Arfix still exists.

Humbrol is gone .
EU regulations will forbid the sale of enamels around 2007 (they contain harmfull chemicals)

Makes me wonder about the future of plastic solvent glue, superglue, spraycans etc.
My preferred plasticglue (MEC) is an example , official it may not be sold here in the Netherlands. ( Fortunate enough one can still find small quantities here and there)