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Actually you only need an average of 3.5 on each dice, so 3 3's and 3 4's.

Also it only works on normal infantry, so there is plenty that the dreaded 13th cannot kill. The other super spells are great for killing any unit, the 13th is great for wiping out a unit of infantry (looking at you Pheonix Guard.

Statistically you will roll a 21 with 6d6, add your caster lvl of 4 and you have got the spell off without IF. As far as I see it ogres are monstrous infantry... key word INFANTRY :p. I may have overlooked that my bad ya I don't think it works on them. Still a great spell against any other expensive normal infantry but I can see a few other angles on the ogres that are more traditional for taking ogres out, they are just not numerous enough and will get bogged down and out maneuvered.

bogged down, yes.

outmaneuvered, NO.

ogres are fast and are normally run 3 wide. that is exactly the same as 6 normal infantry. they can wheel faster than normal infantry because of M6.



most ogre players will be running units of 6-9 ogres 3 wide. pretty fast and maneuverable if you ask me.


and god help you if a unit with 2 Toothcrackers charges you.

What I meant by out maneuvered is that when your unit gets bogged down Skaven will have a variety of flanking units slamming into your flanks. I guess by trait up table movement Ogres will have a slight edge but Skaven move as elves do, and some of our units go 6" like rat ogres and gutter/night runners and assassins.

Fair enough.


I haven't ever faced Skaven, but should soon.

only ever faced WE, HE, DE, TK and VCs.

I'm late to this topic, but with respect to the original posting (tiers, army strength, what-have-you)-
1) is there any accumulation of statistics of W/L margins (either frequency of win/loss or margin of VP from winner to loser) from regional or big tournaments? there are of course individual player variables (some are better than others), but you could easily enter that as a covariate to predict which armies tend to win the most across players. you'd have some nice distributions of data for each army and you could empirically assess the overall efficacy of each army at the tournament,gaming group, or whatever level.

2)If this doesn't exist, it occurs to me that it'd be relatively easy to use a site with a large user community like.... I don't know, DAKKA DAKKA to accumulate data from local gaming groups and tournaments to actually look at different races' success.

If you're a data junkie like me, this might be a cool project the community could submit to, make data widely available, and people could look at which armies are doing the most thumping I'd happily volunteer my services as a data manager if people submitted to a collective excel sheet or something that analyses could be run on w/ statistical softwares

I just ran the numbers on the odds of casting a level 25 spell with 6 dice. I think a lot of people are thinking that you're about 50% likely to cast it at level 4, and there's the chance of IF at around 25%, so that means you're very likely to cast... but the trick is to realise most of the IF results would have scored more than 25 anyway (two sixes will do that). What we're really looking at is results that scored two or more 6s, and results that rolled over 25 without scoring two or more 6s, and the rest.

Having produced a neat little table showing every possible dice combination (all 46,656 of them ) I can tell you that the chance of IF is 26%.

For a level 4 caster, in addition to that 26% chance of rolling IF, there's another 31% chance of rolling 21 or more without rolling two or more 6s. Combining that chance with the odds of IF and you see the overall chance of a level 4 casting successfully is 57%.

For level 3, needing 22 or more, the chance of drops to 23%... for a total chance of a successful cast of 49%.

For a level 2, needing 23 or more, the chance drops to 17%... for a total chance of a successful cast of 43%.

For a level 1, needing 24 or more, the chance drops to 11%, for a total chance of a successful cast of 37%.

For a level 0, needing a straight 25, the chance drops to just 7%, for a total chance of a successful cast of 33%.

Exodus2013 wrote: As far as I see it ogres are monstrous infantry... key word INFANTRY :p.

Except that Monstrous Infantry is now a separate classification than Infantry. Unless Ogres get to ignore stuff that really hurts MIs(see: Khemarian Quicksand)?

BossGobbaz wrote:I'm late to this topic, but with respect to the original posting (tiers, army strength, what-have-you)-
1) is there any accumulation of statistics of W/L margins (either frequency of win/loss or margin of VP from winner to loser) from regional or big tournaments? there are of course individual player variables (some are better than others), but you could easily enter that as a covariate to predict which armies tend to win the most across players. you'd have some nice distributions of data for each army and you could empirically assess the overall efficacy of each army at the tournament,gaming group, or whatever level.

2)If this doesn't exist, it occurs to me that it'd be relatively easy to use a site with a large user community like.... I don't know, DAKKA DAKKA to accumulate data from local gaming groups and tournaments to actually look at different races' success.

If you're a data junkie like me, this might be a cool project the community could submit to, make data widely available, and people could look at which armies are doing the most thumping I'd happily volunteer my services as a data manager if people submitted to a collective excel sheet or something that analyses could be run on w/ statistical softwares

I brought this up earlier and someone said it doesn't happen much, I think the problem is that most GW gamer guys aren't really ''true'' numbers guys. If anyone has any links to good tournament data that would be a great start.

yeah I think it could be interesting (i'm an empiricist at heart)- and even if there isn't data out there (please say if there is!), it would be easy to make an excel to post results, maybe it could be Moderated and serve as a nice database

BossGobbaz wrote:yeah I think it could be interesting (i'm an empiricist at heart)- and even if there isn't data out there (please say if there is!), it would be easy to make an excel to post results, maybe it could be Moderated and serve as a nice database

The other issue is at some tournies people come just for fun. They arent very good at the game and skew results horribly.

You would have to take top 3 or top 5 (depending on tourny size) to determine the stronger armies.

that's a good point, and it ties in with the player variable (in addition you suggest, just as importantly, a "competitiveness" variable)- it sounds like the real question is "all else being equal, which army is the most successful"- you'd run into the main problem if good players simply tend to pick good armies and bad players pick bad armies, but with a little statistical finesse (e.g., multiple regressions, ANOVAs) it might take a good slice at it. I agree there definitely- you'd probably want to look at the tail end with the most successful players as its own independent ministudy since it's hard to get at which army is "fundamentally better." one of the best tests would be to grab many many competitive players and randomly assign them armies, give them time to understand the army and build lists, then let them go at it... but in any event, I still think a first pass with aggregate data would be an interesting cross-section

Meh not all good players take the best armies.

The last 7th Edition GT in Houston had an Ogre Kingdoms player take best overall.

Sure- i didn't mean as much to generalize as to point out that if there is such a trend, you'd have to do some footwork to account for it when looking at data etc. but examples like that are the good news that many armies can find their way to the top

Skaven it top tier, 2nd tier is Dark Elves, Empire, Dwarfs, Lizards, WoC and everyone else. Bottom tier is Brets, TK, and Wood Elves.

what does WAAC mean?

Gar'Ang wrote:what does WAAC mean?

Win at all costs. It refers to the players who like to play no holds barred games, where players are expected to take the most powerful army possible.

Note that a lot of acronyms will turn yellow - this means if you put your cursor over them it'll tell what they stand for.

thank you. ive only played one tourney and i shared the last spot with a experienced player who said that he had cracked th 8th edition and im new to dakka and havent learned the system yet

it's alright man, I suck at it too

Grey Templar wrote:bogged down, yes.

outmaneuvered, NO.

ogres are fast and are normally run 3 wide. that is exactly the same as 6 normal infantry. they can wheel faster than normal infantry because of M6.



most ogre players will be running units of 6-9 ogres 3 wide. pretty fast and maneuverable if you ask me.


and god help you if a unit with 2 Toothcrackers charges you.

LolFace

Good luck with that, I have Giant Rat Darts to redirect and warpfire throwers and warp lightning cannons to kill (Multiple Wounds VS Multiple Wound Models FTW)

ShivanAngel wrote:Meh not all good players take the best armies.

The last 7th Edition GT in Houston had an Ogre Kingdoms player take best overall.

Ah, the Best Players love a challenge...

Grey Templar wrote:

HoverBoy wrote:

djones520 wrote:Doesn't the 13th only work on Infantry? So that would make it pretty useless against Ogre's right?

Why yes, yes it does only work on infantry.

Quoted for 100% truth.


if you try and use the 13th on Ogres i will personally hunt you down and sacrifice you to the Great Maw

that is, if you are not enslaved to further the Great Horned Rat's(or local grey seer's) goals.

ShivanAngel wrote:The other issue is at some tournies people come just for fun. They arent very good at the game and skew results horribly.

You would have to take top 3 or top 5 (depending on tourny size) to determine the stronger armies.

Well, there is that, sure, but out of all GW products, WFB8th is probably the one least designed for hyper-competitive environments. Just look at the terrain rules and the time spent on the campaigns/narrative battles section of the book.