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I think sales will be up. A lot of my friends including myself did huge orders from Maelstrom before the ban came in.

None of has bought anything since then though.

Storms of Magic looks really good but sadly we won't be playing it.

The next report will be the really interesting one for me.

Glad I bought their models and not their shares.

@ Fullheadofhair - Thanks for posting always enjoy reading your posts, very informative

AgeOfEgos wrote:

Ultramarinescout wrote:
Privateer Press is a small threat, they don't own Hobby Centers of what I know of and their Models are inferior in quality.

Implying that it is a given Hobby Centers are a good thing....and given the Finecast launch quality is certainly subjective.

Regardless, let's not turn this into a PP v. GW thread please....the discussion regarding GW's financials is pretty interesting and would be a shame to derail.

PP is a small threat, true, but it isn't just PP now is it? There are multiple little companies taking a few dollars away from the money spent on GW - death by a thousand paper cuts? So there will be some impact to the financials. To say it doesn;t makes no sense - quantifying it on the hand would be very difficult as the I am 99.9999% positive that the analytics to hand for the gaming industry aren't the same as say the mobile phone industry.

Whilst I am one of the biggest screamers and whiners at how crap I think PP models are I actually par-took in the offer they did to capitalize on bad feeling to GW. Despite all my whining I now have $150 dollars worth of PP Everblight + a free rule book. If I can be persuaded to buy PP models then I would offer up the thought that maybe PP isn;t such a small threat and is going to be a larger one as time progresses.

From my perspective, if this report isn't good, or at least not bad, I really wonder how much of a bomb the January report could be?

fullheadofhair wrote:

AgeOfEgos wrote:

Ultramarinescout wrote:
Privateer Press is a small threat, they don't own Hobby Centers of what I know of and their Models are inferior in quality.

Implying that it is a given Hobby Centers are a good thing....and given the Finecast launch quality is certainly subjective.

Regardless, let's not turn this into a PP v. GW thread please....the discussion regarding GW's financials is pretty interesting and would be a shame to derail.

PP is a small threat, true, but it isn't just PP now is it? There are multiple little companies taking a few dollars away from the money spent on GW - death by a thousand paper cuts? So there will be some impact to the financials. To say it doesn;t makes no sense - quantifying it on the hand would be very difficult as the I am 99.9999% positive that the analytics to hand for the gaming industry aren't the same as say the mobile phone industry.

Whilst I am one of the biggest screamers and whiners at how crap I think PP models are I actually par-took in the offer they did to capitalize on bad feeling to GW. Despite all my whining I now have $150 dollars worth of PP Everblight + a free rule book. If I can be persuaded to buy PP models then I would offer up the thought that maybe PP isn;t such a small threat and is going to be a larger one as time progresses.

Meh. Flames of War is more likely a threat.

i see PP as a bigger threat to GW then flames of war or the other companies.


I rarely see much posted about flames of war or the others besides PP except by a few select people.


Its always.. PP this or GW that.

Ultramarinescout wrote:

fullheadofhair wrote:

PP is a small threat, true, but it isn't just PP now is it? There are multiple little companies taking a few dollars away from the money spent on GW - death by a thousand paper cuts? So there will be some impact to the financials. To say it doesn;t makes no sense - quantifying it on the hand would be very difficult as the I am 99.9999% positive that the analytics to hand for the gaming industry aren't the same as say the mobile phone industry.

Meh. Flames of War is more likely a threat.

Between the two of you, you both make the point- its not one or the other. Its the fact your picking something else besides GW. FoW, PP, Whatever.....

I kinda hope the sales are up. Then maybe we can see faster codex releases and new model output. Plus if they continue to go down then we may see a collapse after a few years of a down slope

Kilkrazy wrote:
I don't think the threat to GW is another company. It is the possibility that they price themselves out of the market.

It is the combination of the pricing themselves out of the market and there actually being viable alternatives that is going to make the next couple of years interesting.

That quickly put together offer by PP was a smart marketing move. I fell for it hook line and sinker. Spend $60-$70 get a free rule book - that was enough for me to get over the inertia of buying into PP. Having quick and nimble long term competitors who are viable businesses with a more global reach thanks to the development of the internet is something GW hasn't faced before.

sourclams wrote:
I just looked on a whim at stuff that I consider non-vital goods like Bed, Bath and Beyond (up 50% YoY), Apple (up 42% YoY, although admittedly stagnant through 2011), and Limited Brands (Victoria's Secret, higher-end women's retail, up about 50%).

Not to pick on you too much, but are you married? Bed Bath & Beyond and Victoria's Secret would not be considered non-vital in my house, and women have different priorities. Keeping a nice house and decent clothes certainly would take precedence over toy soldiers. What's more, they represent a small selection. What would happen if instead of Limited Brands, Bed, Bath&Beyond, and Apple, you had picked American Apparel, Linens & Things and Nokia? Bankrupt, Bankrupt, and Going Under.

Many of the companies that I'd consider to be in the same general realm as GW aren't publicly owned, and I don't know how to find their info. Things like Lionel Trains, or Gibson guitars - long-lasting toys with very limited non-luxury uses (unlike underwear or kitchen supplies). One that I did find was Harley Davidson, and yes, their sales have been down each of the last three years.

But that is all empirical. I do not question that GW has some issues facing them. But I don't believe that their issues are based on their prices - with the possible exception of the cost of the starter sets. I don't think their prices are out-of-line with the rest of their industry. I think they're more related to failing to make products (especially rulesets) that people are excited to buy, on a regular basis (yearly campaigns with model and rule support for each faction would do wonders here), and failure to have a good smaller-size game available as a lead-in to the full 2000+ point systems. I think this is why Malifaux and Warmachine are taking pieces of the market, because they do offer skirmish-size games. It's not because they're cheaper, because they're not. And it's not because they're offering higher quality miniatures either. Take those away, and it's a failing in the rules and product offerings. People say they're pricing themselves out - and I don't see that. I see a failure to create demand.

Redbeard wrote:

sourclams wrote:
I just looked on a whim at stuff that I consider non-vital goods like Bed, Bath and Beyond (up 50% YoY), Apple (up 42% YoY, although admittedly stagnant through 2011), and Limited Brands (Victoria's Secret, higher-end women's retail, up about 50%).

Not to pick on you too much, but are you married? Bed Bath & Beyond and Victoria's Secret would not be considered non-vital in my house, and women have different priorities. Keeping a nice house and decent clothes certainly would take precedence over toy soldiers. What's more, they represent a small selection. What would happen if instead of Limited Brands, Bed, Bath&Beyond, and Apple, you had picked American Apparel, Linens & Things and Nokia? Bankrupt, Bankrupt, and Going Under.

Without being rude in any shape or form but you are wrong with your logic and terminology and have been for many posts.

All the examples given by Sourclams are in the terms of the general economy are known as "non-vital". People may have different priorities but I am sure that when it comes to having to trim a household budget by some 20-30% because of longer term unemployment by one member of the household the first thing to go is trips to Victoria Secret. When I do debt counselling with people (I do it for free as my contribution to helping people learn what should be taught in school) I split spending between essential, needed and non vital. Where there is a deficit of income to expenditure guess which section gets cut first? The fact that elements of the economy that are non-vital are seeing some pick up is an indication that overall there is some form of recovery going one - what type, how strong and how sustainable it is is the million dollar question.

The examples you gave went under because they were badly run, had too much debt, had poor store placement and were relient on a good economy to make huge interest payments from over-leveragig and when the bad economy came they didn't have the reserves to cope with a severe blimp to their cashflow. Comparing Linenes and Things and BBB is like comparing Ford and Chrysaler - both car companies hit bad by a recession but only one needed bailing out before it died.

Individually GW models are only 25% to 400% more expensive than equivalent models from other companies.

It's the cost of rules and size of armies that makes GW so expensive.

Kilkrazy wrote:Individually GW models are only 25% to 400% more expensive than equivalent models from other companies.

It's the cost of rules and size of armies that makes GW so expensive.

For fantasy the costs to start are ridiculous. IoB + a $41.50 army book or if you don't want to do Skaven of Elf $80 rule book and a $41.50 army book. Outright stupidity. With the change in editions from 40k and fantasy I have gone from owning every army book/ codices and several armies in both systems to no 40k stuff at all, one fantasy rule book (gift), no new fantasy army books and only one fantasy army (orgres).

This change isn;t because of the economy - I am still a DINK with both of us working and no debt other than a mortgage and a high disposable income.

It isn't the cost of GW that has stopped me buying it is the cost to perceived value that has stopped me purchasing. I still fund my other hobbies quite happily - I have a bad military model habit.

fullheadofhair wrote:It isn't the cost of GW that has stopped me buying it is the cost to perceived value that has stopped me purchasing. I still fund my other hobbies quite happily - I have a bad military model habit.

I hope Redbeard reads this specifically (and I also in no way wish to present myself as being rude or picking on him) because his argument is primarily structured around relative perceived 'price' when GW's big problem when compared to other game systems is relative perceived 'worth'.

I agree with that though, Sourclams. I might not know the right terminology, and for that I apologize if I don't recognize a keyword here or there. But when I say that they're failing to create demand, it's that 'worth' factor that I'm referring to.

The games have lost appeal. In 40k, I don't know if that's because of the perceived dominance of spam armies, or the cookie-cutter-like codexes we've been handed lately, or something else.

Redbeard wrote:The games have lost appeal. In 40k, I don't know if that's because of the perceived dominance of spam armies, or the cookie-cutter-like codexes we've been handed lately, or something else.

I think that's a very interesting question that a lot of people on this board could probably chip in to answer.

For myself, in my area (where we have definitely experienced a shift away from GW in the gaming group) it seems to be a weird mesh of 'too competitive' and 'not competitive enough'.

The casual players don't like playing because they get beaten by internet lists featuring the aforementioned spam and special character hero-missiles like tricked out Twolf Lord and Mephiston.

The competitive players don't like playing because they get bogged down in interminable, inconsistent rules, FAQs, and 'just d6 it' disputes. For my group specifically, we also find Warmachine/Hordes to be a more rewarding game system (as opposed to lining up GW models and throwing buckets of dice at each other until someone "wins").

For the new player, though, I have to think that cost of entry into GW games is a hard pill to swallow. The recent price hike on codices seems absolute lunacy to me; GW should be giving this stuff away just to encourage potential newbies to pick up the game.

If they took the two-army starter sets, cut them in half and dropped $10 of the price of the half (so, $40 for your starter army), that'd go a long way, I think. Considering black reach, that's either a dread, 10 marines, 5 terminators and a captain, or 3 koptas, 20 orks, 5 nobs, and a warboss for $40. But they tie them together for $100 and that is a hard pill to swallow.

I don't think that making the starters more accessible in that way would cannibalize sales of other kits too much because of the limited poses and options in those sets, but it'd go a long way to making the entry point more accessible. Throw in some cardboard terrain with marginal cost and now you're competing against both WM and Malifaux for entry costs, with a lot more models to show for your starter set.

For that matter, why not do something similar for each main faction (marines, orks, eldar, guard, chaos), with starter boxes and single-pose models that can snap together and play quickly.

Maybe the next set of starters might see that. At the moment, they're tied together on the sprues though.

sourclams wrote:

For the new player, though, I have to think that cost of entry into GW games is a hard pill to swallow. The recent price hike on codices seems absolute lunacy to me; GW should be giving this stuff away just to encourage potential newbies to pick up the game.

Individual Army books are one of the things I think Privateer got right from the start. The Forces of Books are optional as all of the rules for units are contained on their cards. You really only need one for their theme force lists, or if you like the fluff. I also like their approach to offering both a hardcover and a softcover version of their books. Their core rulebooks are available readily for under $25.00 in softcover, and hardcover at around $10.00 more. Add on to that that even if you buy the Forces Of book, you're still spending less than you would just for a GW rulebook.

@Sourclams:

To me, the problem with the GW game is that there is an illusion of choice in the army books. Units that are obviously better get spammed. Sub par units don't even get sold. It is akin to a 100 item GOURMET buffet, where only 5 of the offered items are any good. While a lot of the food is passable (i.e. average) some of it is ineddible and they still charged you 100 item GOURMET prices. The defenders might say, well, fill up on the 5 good items then but they're missing the point. Not only was the product was advertised as a 100 item GOURMET buffet - but I didn't even get to choose which items were gourmet. The restaurant chose FOR ME. If I chose to eat something else, I'd be short-changing myself, as I'm being charged a premium. If I didn't want the choice, I'd have gone to a mere 20 or 30 item gourmet buffet. If I wasn't concerned about quality, I could have gone to McDonalds.

Hey were can i find the end year report

http://investor.games-workshop.com/

sourclams wrote:
For the new player, though, I have to think that cost of entry into GW games is a hard pill to swallow. The recent price hike on codices seems absolute lunacy to me; GW should be giving this stuff away just to encourage potential newbies to pick up the game.

They used to do this in GW Japan, at least, you could download Japanese versions of the codices for free. However, they've stopped this model now, as GW is attempting to "standardize" everything in order to cut costs. Even the Japanese website was drastically changed to fit the form of the NA/UK/EU website early this month.

keezus wrote:@Sourclams:

To me, the problem with the GW game is that there is an illusion of choice in the army books. Units that are obviously better get spammed. Sub par units don't even get sold. It is akin to a 100 item GOURMET buffet, where only 5 of the offered items are any good. While a lot of the food is passable (i.e. average) some of it is ineddible and they still charged you 100 item GOURMET prices. The defenders might say, well, fill up on the 5 good items then but they're missing the point. Not only was the product was advertised as a 100 item GOURMET buffet - but I didn't even get to choose which items were gourmet. The restaurant chose FOR ME. If I chose to eat something else, I'd be short-changing myself, as I'm being charged a premium. If I didn't want the choice, I'd have gone to a mere 20 or 30 item gourmet buffet. If I wasn't concerned about quality, I could have gone to McDonalds.

So why ARE you concerned about quality? Don't concern yourself with quality and you have very many more options.

Hi all.
GW plc has a MASSIVE problem with percived value for money.

Collectors will just buy the minatures that appeal to them.
So a minature company can sell low volume (white metal casting ) minatures to collectors, if the quality of the casting and the asthetic is high, compared to the retail price.(This is subjective BTW, what I think is AWSOME others might think is AWFUL. )

To sell more minatures you need to add more percived worth and purpose to the minatures.

A game to use the minatures in is a great idea!
This then appeals to gamer and collectors.

The higher vulomes allows the most popular minature ranges to be produced in plastic , which lends it self to the economies of scale, the more you sell the lower the overhead manufacturing/develpment cost , the more profit you make!

To keep people engaged with the gaming system and related products ,you HAVE to focus on long term game play.

However ,GW plc assumed it could just focus on short term marketing to the easiest to please.

Which is the easiest way to achive short term profits,at the cost of long term growth!

Over the last decade,(2000-2010) Gw plc has increased its turn over by 35%.This is apporximatley in line with inflation .
However prices have risen by 130%.
This means a fall in sales volumes of about 40%

GW plc NOW has the following problems...

New customers (11 to 16 yo boys,) that have had the rules written to appeal to them , very often (parents,) can not afford the start up cost.

And the customers that CAN afford the GW plc products, are often savy enough to compare them to other companies offerings, that have beter gameplay/support , and often at a cheaper price!

IF GW plc had focused more on game play and game support, (like they did 1995 -1998 when they doubled turn over!)
They would be in a much better position now.

Have you got the figures for 2000 to 2005?

The Investor Relations section of the GW site only has 2006 onwards.

Kouzuki wrote:So why ARE you concerned about quality? Don't concern yourself with quality and you have very many more options.

You're kidding right? They advertise on the basis of quality (i.e. BEST), and CHARGE you according to that basis. That's like going to a Porsche dealership, paying the Porsche MSRP and getting a rebadged Hyundai. Sure, Hyundai cars have come a long way and are actually pretty decent, but the fact of the matter is... it's not the Porsche you PAID FOR. If I wanted a Hyundai in the first place, I'd buy from Hyundai at Hyundai prices.

Ultramarinescout wrote:

sourclams wrote:

Redbeard wrote:But as the jobs report shows, corporations aren't exactly using that profit to hire new people.

Actually to a modest extent they are. The 'big' job losses were mostly in gov't. Private sector overall was hiring.

Unemployment is still high, underemployment is higher, and companies like GW that sell non-vital goods to consumers aren't recovering nearly as well as companies that sell to governments or other corporations.

Can you cite some relevant facts to back this one up?

I just looked on a whim at stuff that I consider non-vital goods like Bed, Bath and Beyond (up 50% YoY), Apple (up 42% YoY, although admittedly stagnant through 2011), and Limited Brands (Victoria's Secret, higher-end women's retail, up about 50%).

More recent, but still relevant, according to the Privateer Press staff, their sales orders have roughly quadrupled (orders, for individual SKUs/product, not profitability/sales $/revenue) resulting in the recent shortfalls of production relative to demand. I would not necessarily believe this coming from PP if I hadn't experienced the pain of waiting three months to get two boxes of Kayazy Assassins with my Underboss still stuck in backorder limbo.

So I really do wonder where this giant macro sledgehammer hitting GW that you're citing is, because it simply isn't evident in the world of $300 bed sheets, iPhones, and women's intimate apparel. It also doesn't seem evident in US-based Miniatures Wargaming.

I'm not disagreeing with anything you said, I'm just not sure that the well-being of Caterpillar, IBM and Walmart can be applied to expectations for a luxury toy manufacturer.

How about Privateer Press?

Privateer Press is a small threat, they don't own Hobby Centers of what I know of and their Models are inferior in quality.

??? Where did this opinion come out of left field?

Privateer Press is only the tip of the iceburge. GW is losing ground. Losing ground in terms of sales, in terms of quality themselves, and in terms of product quality.

They are not "High end" anymore. anymore then Target is a high end store. They are living off of the termination of employees, stores, product, and thier overall self inflated ego.

The "Recession" talk is more then I wish to get into here in this thread, but in the short comment on it,- It isn't just the product, it is the overall price in things people don't usually take into consideration, and then in turn have the direct effect on end product prices. ( I/E transportation costs, fuel, food, raw materials, fees government interaction, etc. all the way down to the cost of your salery.)

As an aded thought, those "Stores.. er "Hobby Centers" or whater they want to call them that you allude to are part in parcel to the issue.

I can honestly say that if they really wanted to profit, they would close these stores beacuse of the drains on end bottom line results.

Privateer DOESN'T NEED them, and uses the Internet, interaction, and uses consumer relations 110% in proportion to thier profits.

They don't need the store. They have the game speak for itself. As to those "Inferior" materials, I'm sorry, but your going to have to provide examples on that claim.

Make no mistake. I'm not drinking the kool aid on the issue, and I find several points of contention with PP's game and design process, but in terms of customer relations, GW is clearly the ones lacking in commitment and found with the " inferior product".

I think with the huge emergence of all these other games systems GW will HAVE to start picking their game up.

I've got two full armies in 40k (I know, a drop in the ocean compared to some) and been playing solidly the past 4 years and before that I was on and off. I am hardly a veteran but already I have started forces in FoW, Malifaux and soon Infinity. I won't start Warmahordes as it just doesn't appeal to me.

However - GW have lost out on my FoW money (roughly £100/150), Malifaux starter set (£17.50) and I looking to spend about £70 on a 300 point Infinity army.

If these games didn't exist or were so popular then GW would be that much better off. I am sure this is the same with many gamers. There are only so many Spearhead Annihilation missions I can take!

It seems the other games companies (Mantic aside) seem to be focusing on smaller games that are almost RPG like. They are cheap to start up, they have massive immersion and most have awesome rules.

Hi Killkrazy.
Here are the figures for the start and end of the LoTR bubble...

(Official record began...1995 turn over 30M,by 1998 turn over 60M!)

2000 turn over 78M operating profit 10M
2001 turn over 92.6M operating profit 9.4M

2004 turn over 151.8M operating proft 19.9 M
2005 turn over 136.6 M operating profit 13.9 M

Am I being cynical , or would the 2004-2005 figures make the current reports look a bit lack luster...

TTFN

05 is interesting.

What happened there? Did costs simply balloon?

sourclams wrote:05 is interesting.

What happened there? Did costs simply balloon?

Its not so much 2005 ballon costs or such, but rather 2004 was an anomoly year for profits. GW was steadily going down, 2001-2003, then 2004 spiked up for some reason which 7 years later alludes me.

Tail end of the LoTR boom perhaps. Didn't the final film come out in 2003?

Do people have the figures for 2002 and 2003?

I am trying to build a complete set of data for the last decade, adjusted for inflation.