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Juvieus Kaine wrote:
The fact the Germans are printing their old currency is a demonstration of how much confidence people have in the currency right now. The Euro is on its way out - in effect it's a project that's not worked and as a consequence is failing. The fact that Ireland has needed a bailout, Greece 2 bailouts and a new PM, and Spain & Italy having trouble paying back their our debts, not to mention all the other collective debts countries in Europe have associated with the Euro, there's just no way it'll work.

The sooner countries using the Euro begin reinstating their previous currencies, the faster the Euro can be put to bed and left alone until another person decides to try something similar again. There's potential for a single currency certainly but now is not the time.

It should be noted that the whole Deustchmark thing is probably largely unfounded rumour at this point. Apparently the rumour source is one Philippa Malmgren, a former economics adviser to George W. Bush.

However, the fact still remains that there is a very real and worrying concern amongst Eurozone members that the Euro is teetering on the brink of collapse.

Its fine for Germans to print their own money but do they have enough wheelbarrows?

(okay i'll stop now)

You know the UK is actively trying to crush the EU of they demand immediate pay out of all foreign debt currently on the Euro, and Sarkozy's head on a platter...a gold platter of you will.

Is David Cameron utterly incompetent anywhere else?

India

AustonT wrote:Your link = So two days ago. From a secondary source
My link= Yesterday. From the camels mouth as it were
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16177674

Let's try today's Scotsman.

http://m.scotsman.com/news/uk/david_cameron_s_eu_veto_bolstered_at_home_and_even_in_europe_1_2008782

He was further bolstered by one of his principal European opponents, German chancellor Angela Merkel, who dismissed suggestions that Britain was on the fringes and insisted that it had an important future in the European Union.

And it's not like Cameron or the UK are alone in thier skepticism.

It was revealed yesterday that the Czech government was sceptical about the plans and the Irish government restated its intention to put any changes to a referendum. In the Netherlands, the Dutch government was under siege from opposition parties over its support for changes and there were also doubts in Hungary.

the Dutch are so tall they can see the Future!

And a blatant eurosceptic piece because it's true.

We are paying too much (our net EU contribution is rising from some £3.5 billion in 2008-9 to £12 billion in 2014-15), and the vast body of EU regulation stifles business and the City of London. Rising powers like Brazil, India and China don't have these burdens. To recover, we have to make the UK competitive. We cannot do that without leaving the EU.

We would flourish outside the EU.

The increase in EU contributions is in part to do with inflation, and isn't that important in the large sheme of things anyway.
If China, India and Brazil want completely unregulated financial markets, they're welcome to them. Let them create whatever asset bubbles they like.

Juvieus Kaine wrote:

Joey wrote:

filbert wrote:I have to admit, I had a bit of a chuckle at the reports that Germany was printing off some spare Deutsch-marks 'just in case'...

In case a Greek/Italian default causes the Euro to rise? The Euro at the moment is low, which is a massive boost to German exports.
So please explain to me how a debt crisis will make the currency increase/decrease in value to the extent that Germany has to re-issue the Deutschmark.

The fact the Germans are printing their old currency is a demonstration of how much confidence people have in the currency right now. The Euro is on its way out - in effect it's a project that's not worked and as a consequence is failing. The fact that Ireland has needed a bailout, Greece 2 bailouts and a new PM, and Spain & Italy having trouble paying back their our debts, not to mention all the other collective debts countries in Europe have associated with the Euro, there's just no way it'll work.

The sooner countries using the Euro begin reinstating their previous currencies, the faster the Euro can be put to bed and left alone until another person decides to try something similar again. There's potential for a single currency certainly but now is not the time.

I will re-iterate the point I made earlier since other people don't seem to grasp it.
A weak Euro is a massive boon to the German economy, a third of its GDP being composed of exports.
Another point that is being ignored by all and sundry is that a default by Italy or Greece, as damaging as it would be to the banks who lent them money, would not automatically bring down their respective economies.
The gap in productivity between the Eurozone is a major issue, but it's a)not being talked about by anyone and b)not an immediate problem.
The Euro will collapse if their leaders want it to, we aren't going to wake up one morning to "Eurozone in ruins, trillions of Euros of GDP somehow dissapear because of peripheral governemnts inability to pay debts".



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filbert wrote:

Juvieus Kaine wrote:
The fact the Germans are printing their old currency is a demonstration of how much confidence people have in the currency right now. The Euro is on its way out - in effect it's a project that's not worked and as a consequence is failing. The fact that Ireland has needed a bailout, Greece 2 bailouts and a new PM, and Spain & Italy having trouble paying back their our debts, not to mention all the other collective debts countries in Europe have associated with the Euro, there's just no way it'll work.

The sooner countries using the Euro begin reinstating their previous currencies, the faster the Euro can be put to bed and left alone until another person decides to try something similar again. There's potential for a single currency certainly but now is not the time.

It should be noted that the whole Deustchmark thing is probably largely unfounded rumour at this point. Apparently the rumour source is one Philippa Malmgren, a former economics adviser to George W. Bush.

However, the fact still remains that there is a very real and worrying concern amongst Eurozone members that the Euro is teetering on the brink of collapse.

What do you actually mean by that? "Teetering on the brink of collapse" is a meaningless statement, what do you actually mean?

A weak Euro is not a massive boon to Germany when it is Germany propping it up. The German government has made it abundantly clear that are not going to keep bailing out member states a la Greece. In such a situation, it becomes more probable that Greece will need to drop out of the Euro and that will become catastrophic.

As for teetering on the brink of collapse, I'm not really sure what part of that statement is causing the confusion. There are a great deal of articles floating about postulating different scenarios and what-ifs, eg.

http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/12/13/as-the-crisis-refuses-to-calm-scenarios-of-euro-collapse-appear/

Hell, the BBC have been going on about the potential for Eurozone crash for months now - its not really a big secret that a great deal of economists are fearing the worse. There really is a rather large game of brinksmanship being played out at the moment.

Most of our trade is reliant on europe. We need to really grow with markets in China.

Shame we dont make very much. Germany is in the best position BMWs Audis and Merc are selling well there.

We dont really make much that the emerging middle class over there would want.

We need to make electrical cars or something thats the ticket.

Joey wrote:

AustonT wrote:Your link = So two days ago. From a secondary source
My link= Yesterday. From the camels mouth as it were
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16177674

Let's try today's Scotsman.

http://m.scotsman.com/news/uk/david_cameron_s_eu_veto_bolstered_at_home_and_even_in_europe_1_2008782

He was further bolstered by one of his principal European opponents, German chancellor Angela Merkel, who dismissed suggestions that Britain was on the fringes and insisted that it had an important future in the European Union.

And it's not like Cameron or the UK are alone in thier skepticism.

It was revealed yesterday that the Czech government was sceptical about the plans and the Irish government restated its intention to put any changes to a referendum. In the Netherlands, the Dutch government was under siege from opposition parties over its support for changes and there were also doubts in Hungary.

the Dutch are so tall they can see the Future!

And a blatant eurosceptic piece because it's true.

We are paying too much (our net EU contribution is rising from some £3.5 billion in 2008-9 to £12 billion in 2014-15), and the vast body of EU regulation stifles business and the City of London. Rising powers like Brazil, India and China don't have these burdens. To recover, we have to make the UK competitive. We cannot do that without leaving the EU.

We would flourish outside the EU.

The increase in EU contributions is in part to do with inflation, and isn't that important in the large sheme of things anyway.
If China, India and Brazil want completely unregulated financial markets, they're welcome to them. Let them create whatever asset bubbles they like.

ROFLMFAO.
a FOUR HUNDRED percent increase is due to six years of inflation. 66.667% inflation per year?
Currently the London Economy is reckoned at 565B USD with an out lay of 5.428B to the EU, about 1%. By your reckoning that it's ok to raise contributions to the EU by 66.667% per year:
By 2025 the London economy is reckoned at 821B and by that silly "inflation" You'd be pushing a scosh over 62B to the EU. 13 and change percent of London GDP...oh that's a FANTASTIC deal for CoL, especially since it is only expected to grow 2.2% while Sao Paulo is predicted at 4.2% and Bueunos Ares 3.5%.
http://www.ukmediacentre.pwc.com/imagelibrary/downloadMedia.ashx?MediaDetailsID=1562
In the large scheme of things it matters a great deal.

filbert wrote:A weak Euro is not a massive boon to Germany when it is Germany propping it up. The German government has made it abundantly clear that are not going to keep bailing out member states a la Greece. In such a situation, it becomes more probable that Greece will need to drop out of the Euro and that will become catastrophic.

As for teetering on the brink of collapse, I'm not really sure what part of that statement is causing the confusion. There are a great deal of articles floating about postulating different scenarios and what-ifs, eg.

http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/12/13/as-the-crisis-refuses-to-calm-scenarios-of-euro-collapse-appear/

Hell, the BBC have been going on about the potential for Eurozone crash for months now - its not really a big secret that a great deal of economists are fearing the worse. There really is a rather large game of brinksmanship being played out at the moment.

Right. I could give you a dozen nightmare situations about what happens if a volcano exploded in central london, or if there was a giant tidal wave. Articulating something does not make it likely.
Greece is irrelevent, Italy and Spain are really important...and their 10 year bond yeild is, very gradually, falling. The summits in the EU are irrelevent to the short-term, i.e. governments' ability to control spending and bring down deficits.

obsidianaura wrote:Most of our trade is reliant on europe. We need to really grow with markets in China.

Shame we dont make very much. Germany is in the best position BMWs Audis and Merc are selling well there.

We dont really make much that the emerging middle class over there would want.

We need to make electrical cars or something thats the ticket.

Sadly true. We really need more investment in education to produce that sort of high-tec workforce.

Joey wrote:
Right. I could give you a dozen nightmare situations about what happens if a volcano exploded in central london, or if there was a giant tidal wave. Articulating something does not make it likely.
Greece is irrelevent, Italy and Spain are really important...and their 10 year bond yeild is, very gradually, falling. The summits in the EU are irrelevent to the short-term, i.e. governments' ability to control spending and bring down deficits.

Well if it boils down to you articulating your scenarios and a bunch of well-respected and experienced economic experts voicing their opinion, I know which one I am more likely to trust...

filbert wrote:

Joey wrote:
Right. I could give you a dozen nightmare situations about what happens if a volcano exploded in central london, or if there was a giant tidal wave. Articulating something does not make it likely.
Greece is irrelevent, Italy and Spain are really important...and their 10 year bond yeild is, very gradually, falling. The summits in the EU are irrelevent to the short-term, i.e. governments' ability to control spending and bring down deficits.

Well if it boils down to you articulating your scenarios and a bunch of well-respected and experienced economic experts voicing their opinion, I know which one I am more likely to trust...

You really, really want a list of economists who DON'T think that the Euro will collapse (and therefore are not going to get articles in large newspapers or slots on tv)?
If you're going to listen to "well-respected and experienced economic experts" over everything else then why post here in the first place if it's impossible for you to broaden your mind?

Where has this myth that Britain doesn't manufacture anything come from?

Albatross wrote:Where has this myth that Britain doesn't manufacture anything come from?

I live in a pretty industrial area actually. But about 80% of the people employed are Poles/Eastern European.

IMO if we're not annoying the French and Germans, then we're doing something wrong!

We've always been a nation of buccaneers and swashbucklers. We singed the Spanish king's beard, we burnt down the White House, and we helped Texas achieve it's freedom and identity. You can't buy that kind of history. To quote Apollo Cree from the Rocky films: "we've fought the best, we've beaten the best, we've been the best."

Albatross wrote:Where has this myth that Britain doesn't manufacture anything come from?

Then closing of the coal mines, the steel industry, the car factories, and umpteen dozen other major manufacturing industries under Thatcher. We still make stuff, but not very much, and our major export these days are arms and some various pieces of high-tech aeronautical instruments.

Joey wrote:
You really, really want a list of economists who DON'T think that the Euro will collapse (and therefore are not going to get articles in large newspapers or slots on tv)?
If you're going to listen to "well-respected and experienced economic experts" over everything else then why post here in the first place if it's impossible for you to broaden your mind?

Well thus far you haven't offered anything other than your own opinion (and a vague hint about some sort of conspiracy that economists who hold contrary opinions aren't heard on TV) . I'm sure there probably is an economist or two who thinks everything will be sunshine and light but the overwhelming majority of economists and political commentators are feeling quite negative about the whole situation - whether or not the Euro will collapse is a matter for debate - trying to predict economic patterns is a little like driving a car using only the rear view mirror - but I think it is fair to say that few people are feeling positive about the situation.

I fail to see how believing your particular opinion is failing to broaden my horizons. If you have something to offer then do what everyone else does if they wish to base their opinion on a degree of credibility and offer some evidence to back it up - then perhaps people might start to believe your viewpoint.

I think Alb was refering to the fact that we di still make allot if thing mostly high tech goods. So what if China now makes knives and firks and knick knacks.

I think Manufacturing accounts for about 8% of the economy which is fairly hefty. Now compae that to the construction industry at about 5%. Construction is alaays where the money gets spent to reinvigorate the economy.

Obviously compared to when it historically a counted for a majority of the economy it could be said to be relatively dead but this doesn't reflect changes in the economy and tech.

The coal industry is starting up here again btw.

Albatross wrote:Where has this myth that Britain doesn't manufacture anything come from?

It's a common enough complaint from within the industry itself. My dad has been in manufacturing all his life and its one of his frequently espoused topics. Of course, whether it has any basis in actual facts and statistics or not is another story.

filbert wrote:

Joey wrote:
You really, really want a list of economists who DON'T think that the Euro will collapse (and therefore are not going to get articles in large newspapers or slots on tv)?
If you're going to listen to "well-respected and experienced economic experts" over everything else then why post here in the first place if it's impossible for you to broaden your mind?

Well thus far you haven't offered anything other than your own opinion (and a vague hint about some sort of conspiracy that economists who hold contrary opinions aren't heard on TV) . I'm sure there probably is an economist or two who thinks everything will be sunshine and light but the overwhelming majority of economists and political commentators are feeling quite negative about the whole situation - whether or not the Euro will collapse is a matter for debate - trying to predict economic patterns is a little like driving a car using only the rear view mirror - but I think it is fair to say that few people are feeling positive about the situation.

I fail to see how believing your particular opinion is failing to broaden my horizons. If you have something to offer then do what everyone else does if they wish to base their opinion on a degree of credibility and offer some evidence to back it up - then perhaps people might start to believe your viewpoint.

Setting aside the fact that the only thing you have to support your argument is "a bunch of clever people said so" and I have tried to articulate the interaction of the variables involved in order to gain a better understanding of the situation, all of which you have chosen to ignore.
Regardless, how does your post relate to David Cameron poo-pooing the Europeans over a completely unrelated matter to the things he was saying in public?
If you want to disagree with the vast majority of the European elite and predict that the Euro will fail then that's fine, but there's no need to veto something that had nothing to do with Britain whatsoever (other than preventing the break-up of our largest trading partner, small things like that).
edit-Eurozone is weak compared to whom, exactly?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16207748

wallaby wrote:edit-Eurozone is weak compared to whom, exactly?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16207748

Jack Straw from your precious Labour Party, 7 months ago.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13839381

I am simply shocked that a frenchman would say that the UK is in worse shape than france. Just shocked.

Damn those rating agencies for putting at risk the "positive feeling" that existed on the markets the day after the Brussels summit.

Joey wrote:
Setting aside the fact that the only thing you have to support your argument is "a bunch of clever people said so" and I have tried to articulate the interaction of the variables involved in order to gain a better understanding of the situation, all of which you have chosen to ignore.

To be honest, I was going to write a refutation to this but seeing as you fail to see the distinction between someone choosing to place more credence in articles written by economists and political scientists and the opinions of random internet guy #23456, I can't really be bothered.

Joey wrote:Setting aside the fact that the only thing you have to support your argument is "a bunch of clever people said so" and I have tried to articulate the interaction of the variables involved in order to gain a better understanding of the situation, all of which you have chosen to ignore.

I'd rather listen to 'a bunch of clever people' who get studied in this field and get paid to analyse it. Is that so strange?

Joey, I seriously sugest ditching this one. I say this as tactfully as possible, without genuinely meaning to cause offence, but you are talking nonsense. That is why nobody here is taking you seriously. Either you're a genius the likes of which we cannot comprehend, or you're probably saying something silly. One of those two possibilities is the case here.

So anyone who doesn't have a degree in economics isn't allowed to express an opinion? You disagree with me, ignoring what I'm saying, and quote someone else?
Sorry if I'm not Keynes, but being an inquiring mind it's nice to be challanged about the ideas that one holds rather than "these really really clever people [who usually aren't that clever by the way] disagree with you, so there".


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filbert wrote:

Joey wrote:
Setting aside the fact that the only thing you have to support your argument is "a bunch of clever people said so" and I have tried to articulate the interaction of the variables involved in order to gain a better understanding of the situation, all of which you have chosen to ignore.

To be honest, I was going to write a refutation to this but seeing as you fail to see the distinction between someone choosing to place more credence in articles written by economists and political scientists and the opinions of random internet guy #23456, I can't really be bothered.

We could both have a list of articles in front of us written by clever people. What would that achieve? What would the point be?
By that logic nothing is knowable whatsoever, and no questions should ever be asked except "how can a higher authority answer my question".
I blame google.

Joey wrote:So anyone who doesn't have a degree in economics isn't allowed to express an opinion?

He didn't say that.

Most people here don't have a degree in economics, but the difference is simply that they give a sensible well thought out opinion, and you just say ridiculous gak all the time.

Scrabb wrote:I am simply shocked that a frenchman would say that the UK is in worse shape than france. Just shocked.

Yeah, the cheeky scamp. Time for another good old fashioned war with the French to show them who's boss... not with Hyena Joe though, he's alright.

EDIT - This will have to wait until after the Olympics though as I have just read that we are stationing our largest aircraft carrier in the Thames for security purposes

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/olympics/news/8958712/Military-to-help-out-with-Olympic-2012-security.html

Joey wrote:So anyone who doesn't have a degree in economics isn't allowed to express an opinion? You disagree with me, ignoring what I'm saying, and quote someone else?
Sorry if I'm not Keynes, but being an inquiring mind it's nice to be challanged about the ideas that one holds rather than "these really really clever people [who usually aren't that clever by the way] disagree with you, so there".

Ok, in that case I'll challange the idea that Cameron vetoed a treaty that had 'nothing to do with Britain whatsoever' (your words). That's simply not true. If Cameron had agreed to it, that would have meant that the UK would have to submit its budget plans to Brussels for prior approval in future. It also would probably have meant the EU-wide imposition of a financial transaction tax - with London being the undisputed financial capital of Europe, we would have been hit disproportionately hard by that. Completely unacceptable, and probably political suicide. If Cameron had signed up to that treaty, you'd be in here crowing about how spineless he was in not standing up for British interests, and that he is totally incompetent in Eur...


Ah.


@notprop - Manufacturing makes up around 12% of our GDP, iirc.

It makes up 12% of GDP but I think the argument is that manufacturers are put out of work by increasing automation.

AustonT wrote:It makes up 12% of GDP but I think the argument is that manufacturers are put out of work by increasing automation.

Well, someone's got to make the, uh, 'automatons'. It just so happens that high-end manufacturing is something that the UK does pretty well, thankfully.