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 Disciple of Fate wrote:
To be fair this might not be an actual hint. Being able to help manage the evacuation of citizens seems like it should be a pretty standard part of the job for ambassadors to volatile countries. One could argue South Korea bordering North Korea fitting the potentially volatile description. Only way to find out is what other ambassadors from other admins have been told, but then again the Trump admin is pretty unorthodox, so it might mean little by itself (as in who were the members of that team asking questions). As for the fact he wasn't picked, that might just be for his opposition, they might want a more hawkish representative.

The major indicator would be troop movements but so far that doesn't seem to be the case. This episode is from when tensions were more pronounced and the Trump Admin seems to have calmed down on North Korea somewhat.

I think it is a major hint, especially if you are in the early stages of planning. None of this stuff happens quickly. When it does its because plans and logistics happen to already be in place.

And I am not sure we'll see major troop movements. I think it will primarily be an air campaign. I read over the weekend that North Korean artillery is on the reverse slopes of the hills facing Seoul, and that this air force general was stating that they have been able to pin-point and map each and every mounted artillery piece the North Koreas have along the DMZ. Basically most of these artillery pieces would come out of a cave, fire OVER the mountain into South Korea, move back into the cave to reload, and repeat. He was basically saying that with smart bombs, you can basically go down the line and knock the vast majority of these out in the opening days of a campaign. Whether or not that would happen isn't important, what is is that they believe that it would be possible.

When you hear about air assets being moved around, get ready. As in, sell your equities.

KTG17 wrote:

 Disciple of Fate wrote:
To be fair this might not be an actual hint. Being able to help manage the evacuation of citizens seems like it should be a pretty standard part of the job for ambassadors to volatile countries. One could argue South Korea bordering North Korea fitting the potentially volatile description. Only way to find out is what other ambassadors from other admins have been told, but then again the Trump admin is pretty unorthodox, so it might mean little by itself (as in who were the members of that team asking questions). As for the fact he wasn't picked, that might just be for his opposition, they might want a more hawkish representative.

The major indicator would be troop movements but so far that doesn't seem to be the case. This episode is from when tensions were more pronounced and the Trump Admin seems to have calmed down on North Korea somewhat.

I think it is a major hint, especially if you are in the early stages of planning. None of this stuff happens quickly. When it doesn't its because plans and logistics happen to already be in place.

And I am not sure we'll see major troop movements. I think it will primarily be an air campaign. I read over the weekend that North Korean artillery is on the reverse slopes of the hills facing Seoul, and that this air force general was stating that they have been able to pin-point and map each and every mounted artillery piece the North Koreas have along the DMZ. Basically most of these artillery pieces would come out of a cave, fire OVER the mountain into South Korea, move back into the cave to reload, and repeat. He was basically saying that with smart bombs, you can basically go down the line and knock the vast majority of these out in the opening days of a campaign. Whether or not that would happen isn't important, what is is that they believe that it would be possible.

When you hear about air assets being moved around, get ready.

The problem with declaring it a major hint is that we know next to nothing about the context in which the evacuation question was asked. Who asked the question, what was the underlying motivation behind the question, is it just standard to the 'job interview' etc etc.

Also, we would see major troop movements even if it was just an air campaign. All the air power would still have to be concentrated and brought in. All the logistical personnel and naval groups would have to move in to. And an air campaign isn't even guarenteed to achieve any goal, seizing or stopping the production of North Korean nuclear weapons would likely not be accomplished by air power alone. Plus any air campaign would also trigger a North Korean reaction, so South Korea might appreciate if the US would also contribute ground troops for the defense of SK that would be caught in the middle.

Regardless, moving the air assets required for an air war would still be considered as major troop movements.

Ok well, you have your opinion and I have mine. Time will tell.

Something is coming. Trump is doing a pretty good job delivering on campaign promises, however much people hate him. And he has said he is disgusted this issue persists, and he will not allow it to continue.

All the ingredients are there, whether you think they are making soup are not is up to you. But once the ball gets rolling, its hard to stop.

KTG17 wrote:
Ok well, you have your opinion and I have mine. Time will tell.

Something is coming. Trump is doing a pretty good job delivering on campaign promises, however much people hate him. And he has said he is disgusted this issue persists, and he will not allow it to continue.

All the ingredients are there, whether you think they are making soup are not is up to you. But once the ball gets rolling, its hard to stop.

Yeah of course. I'm just saying that this doesn't have to mean much. It might still happen, but for the sake of South Korea and Japan I hope Trump won't, because its kinda too late anyway.

Yeah, just when you think that the world dodged becoming a flaming nuclear briquette, here we go again...

KTG17 wrote:
Ok well, you have your opinion and I have mine. Time will tell.

Something is coming. Trump is doing a pretty good job delivering on campaign promises, however much people hate him. And he has said he is disgusted this issue persists, and he will not allow it to continue.

Man you are working hard AF for a hat trick thread lock.

Well, it’s pretty hard to talk about what to do with about options on North Korea, when some of those options might be political, and involve US politics at that. This thread might as well be locked.

And oddly enough, it's managed to remain open this long...

 Spinner wrote:
And oddly enough, it's managed to remain open this long...

To be fair though, sometimes there have been some truly elaborate tap dances around the issue.

KTG17 wrote:
When you hear about air assets being moved around, get ready. As in, sell your equities.

Sell some equities, sure. But go long on Boeing.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

KTG17 wrote:
Something is coming. Trump is doing a pretty good job delivering on campaign promises, however much people hate him. And he has said he is disgusted this issue persists, and he will not allow it to continue.

I'm going to keep this short, and non-political, and hope this doesn't end up about Trump and get locked, but what you said about Trump isn't true and it matters for understanding the Trump position on NK.

Trump's campaign promise on NK was that it wasn't a US problem to solve. He said China should solve it, and because he was such a clever negotiator he could make that happen, something former presidents had failed to do. Whether he did this out of ignorance or indifference to the complexities of the issue is irrelevant. And of course this is far from the only promise Trump has failed to keep or ignored entirely.

So trying to argue now that we can predict what Trump will do on NK based on what he's now promising is a fool's errand. The only thing we can say is whatever Trump does will depend on the immediate political situation, and whoever had Trump's ear at that moment.

The plus side of the US apparently trying to be the biggest idiot possible on the Korea issue is that North and South are increasingly committed to working nicely together. If we have very weird luck, the US will blunder its way into both China and Japan agreeing to cooperate with the Koreas and leave the US outside of it.

 sebster wrote:
Sell some equities, sure. But go long on Boeing.

Or Lockheed Martin.

I'm going to keep this short, and non-political, and hope this doesn't end up about Trump and get locked, but what you said about Trump isn't true and it matters for understanding the Trump position on NK.

Trump's campaign promise on NK was that it wasn't a US problem to solve. He said China should solve it, and because he was such a clever negotiator he could make that happen, something former presidents had failed to do. Whether he did this out of ignorance or indifference to the complexities of the issue is irrelevant. And of course this is far from the only promise Trump has failed to keep or ignored entirely.

Trump has said a lot of things, even going back and forth on the same issue. He has repeatedly said he will not allow North Korea to be able to threaten us. Yes, he has tried passing the buck to China for it to resolve, but why would they? They like things the way that they are.

So trying to argue now that we can predict what Trump will do on NK based on what he's now promising is a fool's errand. The only thing we can say is whatever Trump does will depend on the immediate political situation, and whoever had Trump's ear at that moment.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/01/politics/north-korea-trump-bloody-nose-dispute/index.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/01/us/politics/white-house-pentagon-north-korea.html

You guys can keep telling yourselves that the cost would be too great and so on and so on and nothing is going to happen, but I keep seeing signs that Trump has the character to do it. Not saying it is the right thing to do or that I want it to happen, but he loves saying he has done things other presidents haven't, and this issue has been going on for decades. I think he would love to be able to be the one who 'resolved' it.

Rosebuddy wrote:
The plus side of the US apparently trying to be the biggest idiot possible on the Korea issue is that North and South are increasingly committed to working nicely together. If we have very weird luck, the US will blunder its way into both China and Japan agreeing to cooperate with the Koreas and leave the US outside of it.

Well, if you knew anything about North Korea and its long history at negotiating, you would realize all this is a ploy. Nothing is going to change from North Korea's side, despite how naive and wishful the South Koreans are. North Korea is suddenly putting on a good show to try and isolate the US, and maybe even get food out of some deal. But after the Olympics is over it will be back to business as usual.

But would there be a need to change anything? Change in such a volatile area is dangerous. The situation has been stable since the end of the Korean War. I say we leave it that way.
If anything, I believe we should commit to end the isolation of North Korea. Work together with the regime to improve the conditions of the North Korean people. With standards of living improving, and the regime losing its big evil bogeyman to rally the population against, the North Korean people will soon start making trouble about their lack of freedom. It may sound counterintuitive, but being friendly to North Korea and making concessions is the surest way to bring about their downfall.
Of course, I doubt this is going to happen as long as the US is led by someone with the intellectual capabilities of a 4-year old. I still think it is highly unlikely Trump will go to war though. Even 4-year olds know they should not poke in a hornet's nest, and Trump can't start a war anyway without the support of South Korea. And South Korea definitely won't support the US in starting a war. They would much prefer not being on the receiving end of NK's artillery and nukes.
But as can be understood from the diverse opinions and predictions in this very thread, it is evident that US foreign policy towards Korea is very unpredictable. And that is dangerous.

 Iron_Captain wrote:
Of course, I doubt this is going to happen as long as the US is led by someone with the intellectual capabilities of a 4-year old. I still think it is highly unlikely Trump will go to war though. Even 4-year olds know they should not poke in a hornet's nest.

In before the lock!

Well, I can't think of a former US President that would have launched cruise missiles at an airbase of a country that not only was supported by Russia, but actually had troops in country to support it. Maybe in the early days of the Cold War, but not in the last few decades. I can't see anyone from Carter on to Obama who would have done that.

We're in new times here.

Looks like we've reached the end.

Of this thread anyway.