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Personally, i played fantasy for something like 7 years. Then i switched my main gaming over to kings of war (mantics ruleset).

For alot of that time I bought what i liked, and did not work on building a concrete army. Finally in those last two years i built up an undead (TK army)

Now in my (th year of wargaming, I cannot see the point of shelling out three times the price for models which are arguably comparable in quality to mantic's offerings. For me, the "worth factor" is not there.

At GW, i can spend $354 USD to buy the equivalent of Helkiaths undead horde army deal made by mantic which is priced at $125

The Gw models are over 200% more in price, and To me there is the same artistic and gaming value as the Mantic ones.

Hi Killkrazy.

Here are the figures for 2002-2003.(Mid LoTR boom.)

2002 turn over 108.6M oprerating profit 13.5 M

2003 turn over 129.1 M operating profit 17.5M.

Please post up your inflation adjusted figures.(Can you include price rise adjustments as well, just for fun ?)

I'll incorporate the figures for the past 10 years and post a chart.

I don't what GW price increase rate has been so I would have to guess and model it (5% a year kind of thing).

Hi Killkrazy.
As reguards price rises.
5% per year is a bit low...It averages out about 10 % to 12% per year think.
(Can you get prices of items out of WD over the past few years to get a more accurate acessment?Eg codex-army book prices, and other standard items.)

Someone who had a back catalogue of WD could do that.

The last WD I bought was in 2006.


Automatically Appended Next Post:


OK, a bit of explanation is needed.

The image shows a spreadsheet I made of GW's revenues over the past 11 years.

The Year column at left shows the year (duh) and the Adj. Rev. M£ column shows the Revenue result posted by GW in their annual report, adjusted for constant currency by them. (Constant Currency adjustment is a way of removing the swings caused by international exchange rate changes.)

Across the top I have the year again and below that the inflation rate for the year, taken from UK Consumer Price Index. 100.00 indicates inflation of 0%. 102.3675 indicates inflation of 2.3675 % compared to the previous year.

Using this data I have "inflated" each year's revenue by the following year's inflation to bring all revenue figures up to 2010 values. This allows us to compare the revenue performance on the same baseline.

In other words, the column of real interest is the 2010 column as this shows the revenues in 2010 prices.

This shows us GW ending the 90s in good shape and turning over more than £100M in modern prices. LoTR hits in 2001 and earnings show a five year bubble before suddenly collapsing in 2006 to 2007. Revenues have been pretty static for the past four years, though clearly they are significantly higher in the late 90s.

Of course this is not the complete picture. This does not show us profit, or sales (in terms of boxes shifted).

Blegh. IIRC: *edit - going from memory - Canadian MSRP for battleforces starting in 3rd Edition were:

$75 - 3rd Edition Begins (not entirely sure, but somewhere in my mind I believe that the battleforces STARTED at this price).
$90 - Heyday of 3rd Edition
$100 - 3rd Edition is winding down
$105 - End of 3rd Edition
$120 - 4th Edition
$130 - Height of 4th Edition (US MSRP on battleforces were $90 during this period.)
$108 - Somewhere in 5th Edition (GW North America Restructure - American battleforce prices did not change IIRC.)
$130 - Current price.

What is also somewhat interesting is tracking battleforce contents alongside the cost.

Battleforce MK1 (3rd Ed)
Tactical Squad
Landspeeder
Tactical Terminators
3 Bikes
Gothic Ruin Sprue

Battleforce MK2 (4th Ed) <- Actually, this one pissed me off a LOT, considering that they were charging Canadians $130 for this drek.
Tactical Squad
Combat Squad
Command Squad
Razorback transport

Modern Battleforce (5th Ed)
Tactical Squad
Combat Squad
Rhino
Assault Marines
Scouts

Ultramarinescout wrote:
Privateer Press is a small threat, they don't own Hobby Centers of what I know of and their Models are inferior in quality.

1. Privateer Press doesn't use Hobby Centers because they support local stores(something I miss GW doing from the past). That's why you'll see them do their exclusives that require buying things to require a receipt from a B&M store and will not accept equivalent from online stores. IMO, this is something they do better than GW, as I have found Hobby Centers inferior to FLGS in every instance I've been to one.

2. They're inferior in your opinion. I own a lot of models from both companies(spanning their various lines) and find they tend to be equal in quality when taken across both lines(some are worse and better on both sides). I understand you're a GWHC manager, but don't mouthpiece the company lines as facts when the evidence proves you wrong in something that is down to personal tastes to begin with, excepting on the technical side, which ALSO proves you wrong as the quality of sculpts from a technical stand point are just as good.

If we want to derive GW's annual price increases from past prices we need to look at items which haven't changed over time, such as standard box sets.

Tau would be a pretty good pick for this. The Devilfish, Hammerhead, Crisis Suit, Fire Warrior and Kroot box sets are exactly the same contents now as when launched in 2001. We can get 10 years of price inflation from those.

Bezerker boxes, too, KK. They haven't changed other than having different covers over the years.

They debuted at $25 USD(IIRC) and are now up to $37.25 USD.

Between which years?


Automatically Appended Next Post:
We have to take into account that GW do not impose a standard price increase each year. This year prices were increased between 4% and 25% depending on the item. Therefore we have to find as many examples as possible in order to get a good average.

Kilkrazy wrote:Between which years?

That's what I'm looking for now. Unfortunately, I no longer own the WD they debuted in, so it's a bit harder.

I want to say '99 or 2000, as I remember is being released between the 3rd and 3.5 Chaos Codexes, but closer to the original 3rd codex.

You forgot a third option: an acounting audit reveals that Jervis IS using space marines as a drug front after all and GW is shut down as a result, lol.

Even without exact figures we can see that sales volumes are probably* declining because revenue is broadly static at £120m.

*Potentially they might not be if there has been a significant shift away from GW RRP (GW own stores and Direct) to independents, but my understanding is that GW RRP still accounts for over 50% of sales, so I find that difficult to believe.

I thought I had once seen a piece of work, possibly over at Warseer, that suggested price increases were equivalent to 12% a year.

Actually the picture is far worse than KillKrazy has started to highlight. One thing that needs to be stripped out of those sales figures is Black Library. Why? Because over the last 10 years BL has grown substantially and will skew any indication of core game unit volume you are trying to derive from revenue.I think back in 06 or 06 there was a comment as to how well BL was growing and it was at a time when revenue in total was diminishing.

We can't split Black Library sales out so there is no point in trying to account for them. We may as well assume they are not significant.

Off the top of my head, old 40k items that are still being sold - while it amazes me how much some of the ranges have evolved, it's equally shocking how many 2nd edition models are still being sold.

Eldar Avatar - 2nd Edition
Wraithguard - 2nd Edition
Warp Spiders - 2nd Edition
Warlocks* - Some date from 2nd Edition
Eldar Jetbikes - 2nd Edition
Shining Spears - 3rd Edition
Eldar Falcon* Arguable - repacked since 3rd Edition (received weapon sprue)
Eldar Vyper* Arguable - repacked since 3rd Edition (received weapon sprue)
Ork Warbuggy - 3rd Edition
Ork Skorcha - 3rd Edition
Catachans* Arguable - repacked since 3rd Edition
Cadians* Arguable - repacked since 3rd Edition
Sentinel - 3rd Edition
Rough Riders* - 2nd Edition
Rhino (and Razorback) - 3rd Edition
Land Raider - 3rd Edition
Tyranid Warriors - 3rd Edition
Necron - entire 2nd range - ??? Edition(?) *Wagering it's 3rd*
Sisters of Battle - 2nd Edition
Sisters of Battle Seraphim - 2nd Edition
Imperial Assassins - 2nd Edition
*Space Marine Tac Squad left off here because the sprue got recut.
Chaplain on Bike - 2nd Edition
Space Marine Bike / Squadron - 2nd Edition

Eldrad Ulthran - 2nd Edition
Pheonix Lords - 2nd Edition
Lord Dante - 2nd Edition
Captain Tycho - 2nd Edition
Commander Azrael - 2nd Edition
Chief Librarian Ezekiel - 2nd Edition
Lord Mephiston - 2nd Edition
Ragnar Blackmane - 2nd Edition
Logan Grimnar - 3rd Edition
Ghazgkhul Thraka - 3rd Edition
Comissar Yarrik - 3rd Edition
Abaddon the Despoiler - 2nd Edition (3rd?)
Kharn the Betrayer - 2nd Edition (3rd?)

Alright, I'll take up the challenge.

January 2000:
Imperial Guard Stormtroopers: £5.00 (3 models per blister)
Stormtrooper Sergeant: £3.00
Catachan Jungle Fighters: £12.00 (plastic, 20) - £0.6 each.

May 2002:
Tanith Ghosts: £6.00 (3 models per blister)
Catachan Jungle Fighters: £15.00 (plastic, 20) - £0.75 each.

October 2003:
Imperial Guard Kasrkin: £6.00 (3 models per blister)
Imperial Guard Kasrkin Sergeant: £4.00
Cadian Shock Troops: £15.00 (plastic, 20) - £0.75 each.

<<<Can't find my white dwarfs in the middle>>>>

April 2009: (Ish)
Cadian Shock Troops: £18.00 (plastic, 20) - £0.9 each.

May 2009:
Cadian Shock Troops: £12.00 (plastic, 10) - £1.2 each.
Imperial Guard Stormtrooper Sergeant: £6.00
Imperial Guard Stormtroopers: £10.00 (4 models per blister)

June 2010: (ish)
Cadian Shock Troops: £15.00 (plastic, 10) - £1.5 each.

July 2011:
Cadian Shock Troops: £18.00 (plastic, 10) - £1.8 each.
Imperial Guard Stormtrooper Sergeant: £7.50 (or £7.70)
Imperial Guard Stormtroopers: £10.75 (4 models per blister)

Nice work Compel!
This will be a good basis to work out RRP increases over time.
(Basic platic infantry prices, and non character metals.)

Looking at what you posted, this IS indicative of massive losses in sales volumes,especialy over the last few years.

(Belive the cost of 20 plastic minatures increased from £15 to £18 a box shortly after the release of 4th ed , end 2004-beginning 2005.Can somre one confirm this ?)

It could also be indicative of a move towards boxsets that have all options and command figures. Combine this with a reduction in associated blister packs for special weapons/command troops.

So for example, IG cadian box set in 2006 gives you troops for 2 or 3 squads, you will then need 1 or 2 blisters of specialist weapons troopers and maybe a command blister as well plus any Heavy weapons and Command squads you might want to add. All of this can now be purchased together as a single boxset.

Additionally bitz have been effectively dropped. This could have contributed many unit sales (not sure of GWs definition) that out stripped the actual revenue generated.

Actually... They arn't.

Except for being half the numbers and 3 times the price, the sets I've mentioned are exactly the same as they were the day they were released.

*Nothing* has changed with those models.

The point is that if GW sell 100M of stuff in year one, and 105M of stuff in year two, and they raised their prices 10% between year one and two, they sold less stuff in year two regardless of the number of boxes or contents of them.

The purpose of gathering the data about the composition and price of box sets is to be able to derive the GW price increase rate over time.

The Tau items are a very good baseline for measurement since they offer a range that covers most of an army and individually haven't changed at all for nearly 10 years.

All I need to know is the price of Tau boxes at release in 2001. Even the price in 2005 would be useful. (I don't trust my memory for it.)

White Dwarf 262 October 2001:

Tau Ethereal: £4.00
Kroot Carnivore Squad £15.00 (16 models)
Kroot Hounds: £4.00 (2 models)
Devilfish Troop Carrier: £18.00
Pathfinder Team Leader and shield drone: £5.00
Tail Pathfinders: £5.00 (3 models)
Tau Firewarrior Team: £15.00 (12 models + 2 shield drones)

Tau Battleforce: £50 (12 Fire Warriors, 12 Kroot, 3 Crisis Suits, 10 Drones, 1 set of jungle trees.



The prices in 2005 are around where my gap in my white dwarfs are..

Hi folks.
Can we not just use the figures Compel posted for the IG prices and apply them?
(As the Tau-Kroot pricing is at a similar level to the IG at 2001 Price point.)

Plastic minature (troop)
2000 60p.
2002 75P(+25%)
2005 90p((+50%)
2009 120p(+100%)
2010 150p(+150%)
2011 180P(+200%)

Single metal minature (Non-character.)
2000 £3
2001 £4(+34%)
2005 £5(+67%)
2009 £6(+100%)
2011 £7.5(+150)

As these are representative of the prices for collecting and playing an army.Is averaging these price increases, and applying them ok with you Killkrazy?

I'll put them in. I would still like a larger sample though.

Some SM stuff would be very useful.

From the 2002 catalog:

Space marine Dreadnought: £20
Space marine Whirlwind tank: £18
Space marine predator tank: £18
Space marine bike squadron (3 models): £18
Space marine scout bike squadron (3 models): £18
Space marine Predator annihilator tank: £18
Space marine attack bike: £10
Blood angels Furioso Dreadnought: £25
Space wolves Venerable Dreadnought: £25
Space marine bike: £5
Space marine Rhino: £12
Space marine Devastator squad: £18
Blood angels Death company (5 models): £10
Blood angels Baal predator: £18
Blood angels honor guard: £15
Space marine vindicator: £18
Space marine Land speeder tornado: £18
Dark angels Ravenwing command bike squad (3 models): £18
Master of the Ravenwing: £18
Space marine razorback: £18
Space marine Typhoon: £18
Space marine battleforce: £50
Space marine tactical squad (10 models): £15
Space marine land speeder: £15
Space marine combat squad (5 models): £6
Space marine assault squad (5 models): £12
Space wolf Grey hunters: £15
Space wolf battle force: £50
Space marine Land raider: £30
Space wolf Blood claws: £15
Space marine terminators (5 models): £15
Space marine scouts (5 models): £10
Space marine Command squad (5 models): £18
Space marine Chaplain on bike: £10
Space wolf Long fangs (5 models): £18
Space marine Land raider crusader: £35
Space marine Mega force: £75

Space marine Veteran sergeants (1 model): £4
Space marine with assault weapon: £3
Space marine scouts (2 models): £4
Space marine scout sergeant: £4
Space marine scout with heavy bolter: £4
Space marine scouts with sniper rifle (2 models): £4
Space marine scouts with shotgun (2 models): £4
Space marine scouts with boltguns: £4
Deathwing terminator with heavy flamer: £6
Deathwing terminator with assault cannon: £6
Deathwing terminator sergeant: £5
Deathwing terminator: £5
Deathwing terminator with Cyclone missile launcher: £6
Wolf guard terminator sergeant: £5
Wolf guard terminator with assault cannon: £6
Wolf guard terminator with heavy flamer: £6
Wolf guard terminator Rune priest: £6
Wolf gaurd terminator: £5
Wolf guard terminator with cyclone missile launcher: £6
Ragnar Blackmane, Wolf lord: £8
Ulrik the Slayer, Wolf priest: £6
Magneus Calgar, Master of the Ultramarines: £8
Tigurius, Chief librarian of the Ultramarines: £8
Commander Azrael, Supreme Grand master of the Dark Angels, with helmet bearer (2 models): £8
Asmodia, Dark angels interrogator chaplain: £6
Space marine devastator: £4
Space marine chaplain: £4
Techmarine: £4
Apothecary: £4
Space marine standard bearer: £4
Space marine Dark angels: £4
Librarian: £4
Iron priest: £4
Wolf guard: £4
Blood angels Death company (2 models): £4
Dark angels marines (2 models): £4
Space wolves scouts (2 models): £4
Terminator captain: £6
Terminator librarian: £6
Terminator with cyclone missile launcher: £6
Terminator with assault cannon: £6
Terminator: £5
Terminator with heavy flamer: £6
Terminator with lightning claws: £5
Terminator with thunder hammer: £5
Terminator sergeant: £5
Terminator chaplain: £6
Ezekiel, Dark angels grand master of librarians: £8
Apothecary Corbulo, Sanguinary priest: £6
Blood angels Chief librarian Mephiston: £8
Commander Dante, Lord of the Blood angels: £8
Brother captain Tycho: £8
Chaplain Lemartes: £6
Veteran scout sergeant Naaman: £5
Logan Grimnar: £8
Salamander chaplain Xavier: £6
Blood angels Death company chaplain: £4
Space wolves scout with assault weapons: £4
Space wolves standard bearer: £4
Blood angels space marines (2 models): £4
Space marine assault sergeant: £4




Automatically Appended Next Post:
Also from the 2002 catalog:

Tau hammerhead gunship: £20
Tau Devilfish troop carrier: £18
Tau XV-88 Broadside battlesuit: £15
Tau XV-8 Crisis battlesuit: £10
Tau commander Farsight: £15
Tau Fire warrior team (14 models): £15
Kroot carnivore squad (16 models): £15
Tau battleforce (37 models): £50

Tau Ethereal caste: £4
Aun'shi, Tau Ethereal: £6
Tau Pathfinders (2 models): £5
Tau Pahtfinder Shas'ui (2 models): £5
Tau XV15 Stealth team: £5
TauXV15 Stealth team Shas'ui: £5
Kroot hounds: £4
Kroot Shaper: £4
Krootox: £8

Here are some rough findings.

Tau prices increased an average of 43.45% between 2002 and 2011. The kits looked at were; Devilfish, Hammerhead, Kroot, Fire Warriors, Crisis Suit, Ethereal, Broadside.

The increase varied depending on the model – Devilfish only went up 11.5% while the Hammerhead and Crisis suit went up 52% and the Ethereal doubled. (New Ethereal models were produced in 2006, and a previously “limited edition model” was put into volume production.)


Space Marines went up an average 67% between 2020 and 2011.

This is based on the following products; Rhino, Predator, Land Raider, LR Crusader, Combat Squad, Tactical Squad, Terminator Squad, Assault Squad, Dreadnought. The Crusader went up only 17% while the Combat Squad went up 158%.

Bear in mind this is not the whole range for either army.

Also understand that I don’t have the UK inflation figure for 2011 yet, or the GW annual report for 2011. Thus, I can only compare the price inflation of 2002 to 2011 with the average of UK price inflation from 2001 to 2010. This was 29%.

Kilkrazy wrote:Space Marines went up an average 67% between 2020 and 2011.

Cool...So invest now in Space Marines and sell in 2020?

Only if you have a silver machine that flies sideways through time.

So assuming that each dollar earned in 2002 represents a sale, and using an extrapolated 55% increase in price - that would mean that after adjustment, 2010 represents only 78.58M sales vs 119.2M at the start of the LOTR boom (using Killrazy's inflation adjusted numbers).

This suggests an overall decrease in volume of 34% between 2002 and 2010. However, as GW has been implementing "efficiencies" in order to raise the yields per unit sale, I fear that the decrease in unit sales is probably slightly bigger than that. (edit +/- 2%).

It's difficult to compare 2002 with 2010 because of the LoTR boom effect. After the bubble burst, though, revenues have been pretty flat since 2006, though they are showing signs of growth in 2009 and 2010.

As there have been price increases since 2005-6, the implication is that GW have used higher prices per unit to maintain revenue in the face of falling unit sales.

I haven't got any figures to calculate the amount of price increase between 2005-2006 and today.