Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

 Excommunicatus wrote:

AdmiralHalsey wrote:As someone who works in the financial sector, we currently believe there is no reason to expect a financial collapse of the LSE.

Seriously guys, please stop with the end of the world talk. The markets may well suffer a substantial dip, but this isn't Leman Brothers 2.0.

As someone who has had to bailout banks and private corporations with my taxes time and time before, I don't trust what you or your colleagues think for a single second.

History is replete with blithe assurances preceding major economic disaster.

On that note Sub-prime credits become increasingly interesting again it seems.

its 2008 all over again, except Italy is so indebted they could sell the South tyrol back to austria and still be poor.

I have no reason to suggest AdmiralHalsey doesn't know his job.

However there are a lot of financial warnings going about.

If you Google 'financial crash warning' you get interesting links. The IMF has issued warnings in October last year, and again in January.

It is not unreasonable to summise that Brexit could be a catalyst.

The point is not that AdmiralHalsey personally is incompetent, the point is that every single economic disaster is preceded by 'experts' saying everything will be fine.

 Excommunicatus wrote:
The point is not that AdmiralHalsey personally is incompetent, the point is that every single economic disaster is preceded by 'experts' saying everything will be fine.

I mean. We say things are fine a lot.

And they are, in general, fine, a lot.

If I said you wouldn't get stuck by lightning tomorrow, the odds are you would not in fact be struck by lightning. If you are, it's not because I was wrong on the odds of you being struck by lightning, it's a freak unpredictable accident.

Certainly, the stock market will suffer if Brexit happens. I am just adamant this is not going to be some world ending Leman Brothers 2.0 collapse. If it does, I will eat a considerable number of hats, because it would be the metaphorical out of nowhere bolt of lightning on a cloudy day. But you don't need to believe me, just wait and see.

Well, my pension fund lost £12,000 over the past year already, so I'm not exactly impressed with the recent performance of the stock market.

Admiral Halsey, my trouble with this is we do not know which companies are secretly over extended or in trouble, and we do not know who has unsafe positions in those companies.

However warning are repeated often about market instability and a repeat of the mistakes that led to the 2008 crash.

If Brexit staggers one of them, it might topple, and if it topples it could cause a cascade.

We do not know, but also it is not something most people could prep for, unless they have large investments. If is frankly an irrelevance to my position.

AdmiralHalsey wrote:
As someone who works in the financial sector, we currently believe there is no reason to expect a financial collapse of the LSE.

Seriously guys, please stop with the end of the world talk. The markets may well suffer a substantial dip, but this isn't Leman Brothers 2.0.

Its the media who are blowing it out of proportion. they spin everything to fit their narrative. for example, according to the media the whole Nissan thing is purely down to brexit, nothing at all to do with the fact that that vehicle in question only uses diesel engines, and the restrictions starting to be placed on those here will probably negatively affect production.

I also saw nothing in the media on the UKs recent £36 Billion PA trade deal with Switzerland.

AdmiralHalsey wrote:

 Excommunicatus wrote:
The point is not that AdmiralHalsey personally is incompetent, the point is that every single economic disaster is preceded by 'experts' saying everything will be fine.

I mean. We say things are fine a lot.

And they are, in general, fine, a lot.

If I said you wouldn't get stuck by lightning tomorrow, the odds are you would not in fact be struck by lightning. If you are, it's not because I was wrong on the odds of you being struck by lightning, it's a freak unpredictable accident.

Certainly, the stock market will suffer if Brexit happens. I am just adamant this is not going to be some world ending Leman Brothers 2.0 collapse. If it does, I will eat a considerable number of hats, because it would be the metaphorical out of nowhere bolt of lightning on a cloudy day. But you don't need to believe me, just wait and see.

Yeah, you say that, except there are already multiple economists and think tanks raising concerns that we're heading for another '08-style crash(or worse), and detailing exactly why they think that(combination of you "finance" types not learning any lesson from '08 except "if we really feth things up, the poor & disabled will be forced to cover our failures" and rushing right back into building unsustainable bubbles, all of the issues arising from climate change, and the present rash of democratic instability including Brexit). So it's hardly "out of nowhere" any more than the '08 crash was "out of nowhere" just because the few people raising concerns were dismissed as crackpots by the vast majority of finance sector talking heads in who's interest it was to ignore the problem as long as possible.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Well, my pension fund lost £12,000 over the past year already, so I'm not exactly impressed with the recent performance of the stock market.

the stock market performance has a lot to do with wider world issues like the trade war between the US and China aswell though. Why not move your pension to a lower risk level?

 queen_annes_revenge wrote:

AdmiralHalsey wrote:
As someone who works in the financial sector, we currently believe there is no reason to expect a financial collapse of the LSE.

Seriously guys, please stop with the end of the world talk. The markets may well suffer a substantial dip, but this isn't Leman Brothers 2.0.

Its the media who are blowing it out of proportion. they spin everything to fit their narrative. for example, according to the media the whole Nissan thing is purely down to brexit, nothing at all to do with the fact that that vehicle in question only uses diesel engines, and the restrictions starting to be placed on those here will probably negatively affect production.

I also saw nothing in the media on the UKs recent £36 Billion PA trade deal with Switzerland.

Nissan also acted quickly and knew they could milk the situation.

Clearly you don't follow the BBC or The Guardian.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47115753

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/11/uk-signs-brexit-trade-continuity-deal-with-switzerland

However, we are getting pretty far off the actual topic.

I guess it's time to close the thread.