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Hi guys,

   I'm trying to decide between the relative merits of going to a 2+ save on two 36" range carnifexs, or bumping them from T6 to T7. It's a matter of my list for an upcoming GT but I hope this is the right place for it as it's not so much an army list question as a meta-gaming one.

The background is I've a 7 TMC, 3xZoan NidZilla list. 3 dakkafexs, 2 sniperfexs, devourer flyrant, walking flyrant (VC/Dev). I wanted to make the two sniperfexs tougher, so I've given them an extra wound each as that works against anything.

I'd really appreciate some opinions on what people think of 2+ versus T7 in tourney scenarios. How I see it is...

Reasons against 2+ save on sniperfexs:
 they'll usually sit in cover, so get a save even versus ap2 and ap3.
 if they are shot at it tends to be with ap2 stuff anyway, so a 2+ save won't do anything against that.
 they're often completely ignored, and finish the game with their 4 wounds each. For most opponents I think the devourer fexs are a better target, however for some armies which try to out-range me with skimmers the sniperfexs will be a prime target.

Reasons for the 2+ save.
  They are currently vulnerable to AP3 fire. As many people tool themselves up for anti power-armour I'd guess there'll be a fair bit of it out there (pure assumption). Giving them a 2+ save would make them a lot more resilient versus AP3, even accounting for the fact that they'll usually get a cover save versus AP3 (4 times as resilient assuming a 5+ cover save).
  Against some armies (like eldar skimmer army) the sniperfexs were the prime target so protecting them is important. Not that I'm sure giving them a 2+ save would have help them there hugely. Mech Eldar has AP2 up the wazoo.
  Sometimes people will throw everything they have at them because the fex is down to the last wound or two, or because they're mental A 2+ save means half the failed saves a 3+ does against normal AP weaponry.
  Against some armies I can send the sniperfexs forward and use them to bloke LOS to the more fragile devourer fexs. This should help against necrons, but I can't think of any other shooty apart from tyranids with so little long ranged ap2 stuff.
  I already have 2+ on my flyrant and obviously on the Zoans, so this would mean 4 slots of 2+ saves. That will make a lot of 2+ targets for some armies light on AP2 to handle.

Reasons for going to T7 on both carnifexs:
It makes a large difference against str5 (half the wounds!), not so huge against the rest.
It means 1/3 less wounds from an eldar starcannon (although if i'm doomed then it won't help that much, and i'm always doomed!), 1/4 less against Tau ion cannons, and 1/3 less against tau plasma rifles (nice!).
It's 10 points cheaper than +save on the two fexs, so I can put synapse on a second Zoan. Not that a Nidzilla list really needs more synapse, especially with two tyrants.
Also means that str3 can't wound me anymore unless it has something special like rending or gauss. However I still really don't want my shooty carnifexs in hand-to-hand which seems to be where the majority of massed str3 attacks are.

Against firedragons (who I now dislike almost as much as harlequins )
Assuming 6 of them

With +T: 2/3 x 5/6 = 55.5% chance to wound per shot x 6 shots = 3 1/3 averages wounds caused
Without +T: 2/3 x 2/3 = 44.44% chance to wound per shot x 6shots = 2 2/3 average wounds caused.

If i'm doomed, and I usually am, then the difference is 3.88888 vs 3.55555, in other words, f all But +save would be even more useless Neither helps against rending, that other killer of innocent monstrous creatures.

Reasons against +T:
It does nothing against >= str9 and <= str 4. That's most of the basic infantry weaponry out there, and a decent bit of the anti-tank stuff shot at my carnifexs (lascannons, I'm looking at you here). However a fair bit of str 6-8 stuff is shot at them too.

Both options have the possibility of making no difference at all against certain circumstances, hence why I went with the extra wound first.

Any advice?
Thanks a lot guys, I'm finding this a tough call.

Option C is to keep my 1 lone ravener which i have as a fast moving scoring unit. He'll be sacrificed for the upgrades if I go for them.

yakface's excellent article has all you need, IMHO.

http://www.dakkadakka.com/Articles/tabid/57/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/5/Tactica-Carnifex-Equipping-Your-Carnifex.aspx

Heh thanks tegeus-CromisI hadn't seen that but he says exactly the same thing, and plumps for +T as the very slightly better option.

That's what I was leaning towards myself so guess I'll probably go with that.

Any other viewpoints? I get nervous when people start agreeing with me!

[edit] oh and that really is an excellant tactica. It's taken me months to learn the stuff that's just sitting there in it. Damn! [/edit]

You're welcome. As for myself, I'm not a 'nid player, but I agree with his assessment that it is basically not really worth taking either upgrade. Take the extra wound and call it a day.

extra wound ++

There's enough AP2 weaponry out there that 2+ generally isnt a big deal. Most of the time the big guys aren't going to get shot at by little guns anyway, so T7 isn't going to help much.

Extra wound always is the first defensive upgrade bought for your Heavy Fex's. After that, I prefer the 2+ Save over the extra Toughness.

I would go for the extra toughness given the choice. The amount of ap3 fire comming your way (and when I say ap 3, I mean ap 3, not 2, not 1, not 4, but exactly 3) is probably minimal. As such, the extra save isn't going to help you out all that much. Makeing it harder for heavy bolter, missile launchers, bright lances, auto cannons, and other similar weapons to hurt you is significantly more valuable in my mind.

I don't know about that, Phoenix. The 2+ is most valuable against AP3, granted, but it is also valuable against everything with a higher AP, since it halves the chance of taking a wound from it.

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Everyone can probably work it out, but for quick reference, cross reference str of weapon with ap of weapon. Red = fex better with extra toughness, green = fex better with extra save, yellow = both same.

Doesn't account for any special weapon rules (gauss,sniper etc).

Yeah pretty much what I was gonig to say was that for getting shot with high strength/high AP guns (scatter lasers, shurican cannons, Destroyers, etc), the 2+ save is better. Once you hit AP3, the 2+ becomes drastically better.

The only case the toughness of the Fex comes into play as being better is when you get AP2 guns who only have S6 or S7 (Eldar+Tau & Imperial Plasma weapons).

As a Necron palyer, I breath a sigh of relief when I hear that the player only has a 3+ save on his fex's & tyrant.

I'll reiterate what I said in my article:

Neither is worth it in a take all comers list IMO, but if you are going to take one of the two, the T7 is a better choice for an unknown opponent.


If you know what opponents you are facing, the 2+ save can be devestating to certain enemy armies, namely Necrons, Orks, Dark Reaper heavy Eldar and Missile Launcher heavy Imperials or Chaos. Basically any army that doesn't have much AP2 weaponry is really, really, really going to be hurting against 2+ save TMCs.

But on the other hand, if you don't know what opponent you are facing and especially if you're heading into a tournament where you typically fight against 50% MEQ armies the T7 provides protection against a wider array of weapons that are typically used against Carnifexes, and for 5 less points.

That's an interesting, but misleading, chart.  Misleading because many of the  areas represent rare or non-existent weapons. 

Thanks a lot guys, very interesting feedback there.

I'm so crippled by indecision between the two that I think I'll actually just leave them with just the +wound and keep the ravener I would have been sacrificing! An extra fast moving scoring unit that rends is handy.

Posted By Grimaldi on 07/25/2007 8:24 PM
That's an interesting, but misleading, chart.  Misleading because many of the  areas represent rare or non-existent weapons. 

There is nothing misleading about it at all, it is a chart for quick reference, nothing more nothing less, of all the str/ap combos that can effect a fex. How you read it is up to you, that goes for any statistic, chart etc.

Posted By Grimaldi on 07/25/2007 8:24 PM
That's an interesting, but misleading, chart.  Misleading because many of the  areas represent rare or non-existent weapons. 

Better to say that it's an informative chart.  It shows quite nicely that the T7 is better only against S6, S7 and S8 AP2/AP1 weaponry. 

I like the 2+ because as mentioned it is twice as good.  This also applies to close combat, power weapons notwithstanding.

As far as kitting out Carnifexes is concerned, I either take the extra wound (which is pretty much standard), or else I take all three.

The points costs go ... extra wound, then +5 points then +5 points again.

I see it as being the extra wound gives me an extra wound.
The +1 T will save me a wound at least once.
The 2+ will save me a wound at least once, and more if I'm lucky.

Note the 2+ save's best use is against AP4/AP5 and close combat weapons.

I always take the +1 toughness over +1 wound or 2+ armor save. In my opinion the +1 toughness gives you protection vs. the most common types of damage the sniper fex can face. Unlike the +1 wound which only works once, you lose the first wound and your back to being a regular fex, the +1 toughness lasts until you die.

I think of it as having multiple +1 wounds. Everytime a powerfist rolls a 2 to wound me, and I have a 7 toughness, it's a wound I'm not taking that I would have taken otherwise. Everytime a plasmagun rolls a 2 to wound or a star cannon rolls a 4, the +1 toughness is preventing that wound from ever occuring at all. It can work all 6 turns of the game to 'add' extra wounds to your fex; extra wounds that would have been lost without a 7 toughness.

I consider it a 6+ invulnerable save vs. low ap, str 8 or less weapons. If the sniper fex is sitting in cover, then it helps filter out incoming 'to wound' rolls and the less cover saves you have to make, then the less cover saves you are likely to fail. You can blow four 4+ cover saves and die in one round, but it is impossible to die in one round if you only have to make three cover saves.

I have to agree with Grimaldi on this one. Definatly a great graphical aid but its misleading due to the fact that there (as far as I know) are no strength 10 weapons with AP values higher than 3 (or is it 2?). Same thing with strength 9 and 8. At strength 7 you find the autocannon at ap 4 but nothing that's ap 5 or 6 that I can think of. So on and so forth. The chart needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

Posted By Phoenix on 07/26/2007 9:29 AM
I have to agree with Grimaldi on this one. Definatly a great graphical aid but its misleading due to the fact that there (as far as I know) are no strength 10 weapons with AP values higher than 3 (or is it 2?). Same thing with strength 9 and 8. At strength 7 you find the autocannon at ap 4 but nothing that's ap 5 or 6 that I can think of. So on and so forth. The chart needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

Lol!!!!! the sniper-fex, the very creature under discussion touts a couple of those non existant weapons.

Why do you take factual info with a grain of salt? - facts are facts, How you interpret it is up to you. I never claimed it proved one thing or another, if i did then you'd be right to take an interpretation with a grain of salt.

Its not misleading, it just needs some analysis in order to be used.  But that is true of ALL statistics, which is a reason that I don't understand people who rely on statistics solely for making decisions about their army lists.

Ozymandias, King of Kings

Darth Diggler: Strange reasoning. On average, for every PF that rolls a 2 to wound you, four other PFs will roll 3-6 and succeed--by the time the T7 saves you a wound, you're already dead!

Ozymandias: I think you're exaggerating a little, since it's literally impossible to build a list using only statistics.

Posted By tegeus-Cromis on 07/26/2007 10:30 AM
Darth Diggler: Strange reasoning. On average, for every PF that rolls a 2 to wound you, four other PFs will roll 3-6 and succeed--by the time the T7 saves you a wound, you're already dead!

Averages with such a low test range have little value.  In order for the law of averages to have an effect, the sample range must be quite large, much larger than a powerfist can do.  Sometimes the fex will be wounded by rolls of 4,4,5,5,2,1 in which case it dies.  Other times it is wounded by rolls of 4,6,2,2,6,1 in which case a toughness of 7 saves it.  In both cases the powerfist rolled it's 'average' die roll of 3.5.  In only 6 rolls, the law of averages doesn't have enough of a range to pan out.  Roll 6 dice and you will hardly ever get 1-6 to show up, but wait the average says you will roll a 2 every 6th dice.  No sometimes you roll 3 two's and sometimes you don't roll any two's. 

When your opponent is rolling to wound the toughness 7 fex with a powerfist he will fail on a 1-2.  Without the toughness 7 he fails on only a 1.  In those cases where he rolls a few 2's you will come out ahead.  If he does it once during the course of a game you have equalled the +1 wound benefit.  If he does it twice during a game, then you have exceeded the +1 wound benefit.

Now most commonly the sniper fex will be in the back deployed in cover.  Only long range guns or deep striking assault weapons can reach it.  Of these possibilities, str 6-7-8 weapons are the most common (and combat squads will only make it more so).  I'm willing to gamble that my toughness 7 will come in to play at least twice a game in which case it comes out ahead of a +1 wound.

I'm looking at this over the course of many games (the bit about being already dead was for emphasis, sorry). The point is that against S8, the ratio of the number of wounds T7 will save you vs the number of wounds you will take anyway is hardly anything to get excited about, especially without the extra wound.



And if he never does, you've wasted the points.



How do you figure that 6-7-8 weapons are the most common in those categories? For every plas, there's a las. Combat squads will be relevant if and when C:SM gets redone, but are meaningless now. Plus, one of the most common S6 weapons, the assault cannon, derives most of its effectiveness from a rule that T7 does nothing at all against, but which +1 W does.

These are the type of discussions i really like. 

My personal choice would be to not upgrade the Fex's and simply take the ravener only in this instance however.  The reason would be that in competitive games I always prefer to have more units and more models if possible.  Being able to have more scoring units to capture objectives is always a good thing and in a Nidzilla list you want as many targets as possible so it is harder for your opponent to take them all out.

In a different list, say a non-nidzilla list i would recommend the toughness upgrade because of the different types of weapons you will be facing in a tournament some armies will have to throw everything including the kitchen sink at the fex to take it out.

Having toughness 7 against things like heavy bolters, assault cannons, autocannons, multilasers, and basically anything strength 4 through 8 is extremely useful because your chances of even having to roll the save goes down dramatically.

As puree's neat-o chart illustrates, anything S4-8 that is not AP 1 or 2 is more effectively countered with the save than with the toughness. That's what matters, not whether it  spares you from "even having to roll the save".

Looking at the chart could you tell me what weapons are str 7-10 and ap 5 or 6? Can we remove that whole section from the chart? Can we also say we will not count the heavy setting of a blastmaster as a common weapon? That way we eliminate all str 8 ap 4 weapons. I'll give you the railrifle (is that the only str6 ap 3 weapon in the game?) to make up for it.

I don't have the technical skill, but could somebody clean up the chart after eliminating all non-exsistant weapons and the heavy blastmaster. I do beleive the toughness fex is making a good showing on that chart with some clean up.

Off the top of my head, str 4-8 weapons of ap 1-2 include fusion guns, meltaguns, multi-melta guns, plasmaguns, plasmacannons, tau plasmaguns, starcannons, pulse lasers, exorsist launchers, and for assault, powerfists, str 5 power weapons, daemon princes, all the greater daemons, Avatar, and Hive Tyrants.  Sounds like some pretty common weapons to me.  Common weapons that will most likely be shooting across the table at a sniper fex. 

I guess I've just never played averages as much as other people.

That's a good argument for T over Sv, but not for T over W.

Posted By DarthDiggler on 07/26/2007 12:33 PM
Looking at the chart could you tell me what weapons are str 7-10 and ap 5 or 6? Can we remove that whole section from the chart? Can we also say we will not count the heavy setting of a blastmaster as a common weapon? That way we eliminate all str 8 ap 4 weapons. I'll give you the railrifle (is that the only str6 ap 3 weapon in the game?) to make up for it.

I don't have the technical skill, but could somebody clean up the chart after eliminating all non-exsistant weapons and the heavy blastmaster. I do beleive the toughness fex is making a good showing on that chart with some clean up.

Off the top of my head, str 4-8 weapons of ap 1-2 include fusion guns, meltaguns, multi-melta guns, plasmaguns, plasmacannons, tau plasmaguns, starcannons, pulse lasers, exorsist launchers, and for assault, powerfists, str 5 power weapons, daemon princes, all the greater daemons, Avatar, and Hive Tyrants.  Sounds like some pretty common weapons to me.  Common weapons that will most likely be shooting across the table at a sniper fex. 

I guess I've just never played averages as much as other people.

Don' forget bright lances, dark lances, disintegrators, blasters and (potentially) DE destructors.  Also, DE agonizers might as well qualify due to their special wounding rule.

Posted By DarthDiggler on 07/26/2007 12:33 PM
Looking at the chart could you tell me what weapons are str 7-10 and ap 5 or 6? Can we remove that whole section from the chart? Can we also say we will not count the heavy setting of a blastmaster as a common weapon? That way we eliminate all str 8 ap 4 weapons. I'll give you the railrifle (is that the only str6 ap 3 weapon in the game?) to make up for it.

I don't have the technical skill, but could somebody clean up the chart after eliminating all non-exsistant weapons and the heavy blastmaster. I do beleive the toughness fex is making a good showing on that chart with some clean up.

Off the top of my head, str 4-8 weapons of ap 1-2 include fusion guns, meltaguns, multi-melta guns, plasmaguns, plasmacannons, tau plasmaguns, starcannons, pulse lasers, exorsist launchers, and for assault, powerfists, str 5 power weapons, daemon princes, all the greater daemons, Avatar, and Hive Tyrants.  Sounds like some pretty common weapons to me.  Common weapons that will most likely be shooting across the table at a sniper fex. 

I guess I've just never played averages as much as other people.

Surely you can do better than that, Str 7-10 and ap 5-6 would include Deathspitters and Barbed Stranglers, Str 8 ap 4 would be Tyrant + Vennom cannon. Again I don't even need to go outside the army under discussion to find non-existant weapons!  I'm really getting the idea that some players are would be Imperial commisars or priests "Fear not men, the Giant monsters cannot harm you for their weapons are not real but merely figments of the imagination, we can defeat the beasties simply by disbelieving in them".

The chart isn't trying to show anything one way or the other, which is better depends on things like who you play, whether you know before what you'll play, what cover is around etc etc.

In my experience, the +Sv comes up much more often that theory dictates. When that tank shoots with the lascannon, it also shoots the heavy bolters.
It only takes a few shots with an AP3 weapon before the +Sv has outdistanced the +W.

I would take neither of the options. Only +1W is worthwhile. Orks really do suffer against 2+ save fexes but that is a good reason not to take them, you dont need the advantage, orks vs nids is a mismatch even without tailoring your army against them. You can never count on Eldar or any type of Imperial (except sisters) not having mlarge amounts of Ap2/1.

+1T is useful, but those weapons you would get a menaningful defence against will be aimed at something else, though if there is nothing else but two minimum troops squads and a Tyrant or two then T7 could help to absorb medioum strength firepower that has no choice but to shoot youir monsters. However if you want a zilla list you have other points priorities and generally cannot afford this.