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Made in us
Arch Magos w/ 4 Meg of RAM






Leo_the_Rat wrote:
I like playing chaos and based on the chart above I'm probably a below average player. If you take out the Top 100 victories then chaos has a win rate of about 31%. My win rate vs my meta is around 20% or so (if I'm lucky).

Now I feel worse then when I started this post.

The bigger issue that I note is what the top 100 are playing the most- Harlies, Asuryani, and Nids. That says that they think that these are the books with the best chance of winning.


The 30% winrate is based on bringing the best possible list for Chaos, where you bring a wombocombo and try to hurt your opponent as much as possible. If youre not playing that way, its normal that you get a lower win%. And don't despair, new codex is gonna make us OP soon enough so that winrate is sure to go up
   
Made in us
Pious Palatine




 Daedalus81 wrote:
A reddit thread prompted this thought. This is the top 100 from ITC split off to show how they do against the rest of the field ( all games, no TTS, 4/22 forward ). The gist is the perception of win rates is affected by armies the top players use.

I think this potentially demonstrates the difference in player skill despite strength of a book.





If we agree that 50% winrate across 'infinite' games is ideal, and that between 45-55% is acceptable, this chart makes it clear that the biggest problem isn't actually the top of the list, but the BOTTOM.

Ignoring the biggest statistical skews (i.e. factions with sub 20 games who are likely only being played by extremely dedicated players) only TWO factions are seeing excessively high winrates.

A whopping TWELVE factions are seeing excessively LOW winrates. It's pretty clear that THIS is where the big problem is.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2022/05/10 21:46:28



 
   
Made in us
Clousseau




That tracks with my experience with 40k from 3rd - 8th.

The two or three factions that are kings of that era are the most represented, and then everyone else kind of languishes underneath (in general - on average).
   
Made in it
Waaagh! Ork Warboss




Italy

Big difference with 3rd-8th is that now we don't have 2-3 factions that dominate an edition but only a certain moment of the edition. Eventually a dozen or more of factions will have their top tier moment in the current edition, and that's a good thing.

It also means that a lot of the most broken combos are avoided by a large crowd of players since they're going to be nerfed too soon to justify the investment in terms of time and money. I've never seen orks lists with 9 squigbuggies and 5 flyers in real life for example, and they were OP and legal for 5-6 months.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2022/05/11 07:06:33


 
   
Made in gb
Longtime Dakkanaut




 Blackie wrote:
Big difference with 3rd-8th is that now we don't have 2-3 factions that dominate an edition but only a certain moment of the edition. Eventually a dozen or more of factions will have their top tier moment in the current edition, and that's a good thing.

It also means that a lot of the most broken combos are avoided by a large crowd of players since they're going to be nerfed too soon to justify the investment in terms of time and money. I've never seen orks lists with 9 squigbuggies and 5 flyers in real life for example, and they were OP and legal for 5-6 months.


Being pedantic I think it was about 3.5?

But yeah. Tyranids are riding high. I suspect they'll get nerfed at some point. Especially if the professional commentary scene continues their "this is the most broken stuff ever pls fix" refrain.

We'll also have to see what happens in the new season. If certain factions lose some easy secondaries, and others potentially gain them, you would expect to see win% shaken up a bit.
   
Made in pl
Fixture of Dakka




ERJAK 804923 11361964 wrote:

If we agree that 50% winrate across 'infinite' games is ideal, and that between 45-55% is acceptable, this chart makes it clear that the biggest problem isn't actually the top of the list, but the BOTTOM.

Ignoring the biggest statistical skews (i.e. factions with sub 20 games who are likely only being played by extremely dedicated players) only TWO factions are seeing excessively high winrates.

A whopping TWELVE factions are seeing excessively LOW winrates. It's pretty clear that THIS is where the big problem is.


But that is how sports work. You at best get 2-3 guys or gals or teams doing really well, and the rest does not. That is how you get X years of domination of this or that player, and others can win mostly when the top either doesn't shop up or gets sick and can't finish the event or gets injured/pregnant. In this way GW games are very much like all other games or sports. Even in sports that aren't professional and are just played outside of official competitions, everyone knows that the team that gets the first pick and take the two biggest/talls/strongest guys will dominate the other team, because no team play and power of friendship can beat out someone being almost 6 foot at the age of 16.

If you have to kill, then kill in the best manner. If you slaughter, then slaughter in the best manner. Let one of you sharpen his knife so his animal feels no pain. 
   
Made in us
Painlord Titan Princeps of Slaanesh




Except this isn't a sport. It's a designed system. It would be better to compare this to computer systems. Sure there are faster or slower systems that exist at the same time but they are priced with that in mind. What GW is doing is charging everybody the same regardless of which model they buy. Or worse yet charge more for the lesser systems. Then they claim that they aren't a manufacturer but a programming company so, "Oh well" even though they build the computers in their own factories.
   
Made in us
Decrepit Dakkanaut





ERJAK wrote:
If we agree that 50% winrate across 'infinite' games is ideal, and that between 45-55% is acceptable, this chart makes it clear that the biggest problem isn't actually the top of the list, but the BOTTOM.

Ignoring the biggest statistical skews (i.e. factions with sub 20 games who are likely only being played by extremely dedicated players) only TWO factions are seeing excessively high winrates.

A whopping TWELVE factions are seeing excessively LOW winrates. It's pretty clear that THIS is where the big problem is.


The question is then what is holding them down.

These are win rates for sub-100 Necrons against opponents. The culprits dragging them down are pretty evident.


If it weren't for Nids then Necrons would be 47 to 48%.
   
Made in gb
Fixture of Dakka







What's the definition of "sub-100" mean here, Daed?

And I'd argue the last three highlighted rows aren't having a significant effect, given we're taking 12 games in total. I'm surprised you didn't flag GSC at 38% (from 17), though, having done so for Custodes at the same % (from 21 games).

2021-4 Plog - Here we go again... - my fifth attempt at a Dakka PLOG

My Pile of Potential - updates ongoing...

Gamgee on Tau Players wrote:we all kill cats and sell our own families to the devil and eat live puppies.


 Kanluwen wrote:
This is, emphatically, why I will continue suggesting nuking Guard and starting over again. It's a legacy army that needs to be rebooted with a new focal point.

Confirmation of why no-one should listen to Kanluwen when it comes to the IG - he doesn't want the IG, he want's Kan's New Model Army...

tneva82 wrote:
You aren't even trying ty pretend for honest arqument. Open bad faith trolling.
- No reason to keep this here, unless people want to use it for something... 
   
Made in us
Decrepit Dakkanaut





Players whop aren't top 100 in the ITC.

Yea, I missed GSC. I just highlighted struggles -- the biggest impact is bugs, harlies, and custodes ( and GSC close by ).
   
Made in us
Dakka Veteran





 VladimirHerzog wrote:
Good change IMO, getting ever closer to the complete removal of Stratagems


Exalted.

Strategems are an absolutely brian dead game mechanic.
   
Made in us
Pious Palatine




Pancakey wrote:
 VladimirHerzog wrote:
Good change IMO, getting ever closer to the complete removal of Stratagems


Exalted.

Strategems are an absolutely brian dead game mechanic.


you an argue that they're a bad mechanic. calling them 'braindead' just makes it seem like you don't know what 'opportunity cost' is.


 
   
Made in ca
Longtime Dakkanaut





And calling them Brian dead is more than a little ironic.

   
Made in au
Owns Whole Set of Skullz Techpriests






Versteckt in den Schatten deines Geistes.

PenitentJake wrote:
And calling them Brian dead is more than a little ironic.
C'mon man! What did Brian ever do to you?

Industrial Insanity - My Terrain Blog
"GW really needs to understand 'Less is more' when it comes to AoS." - Wha-Mu-077

 
   
Made in gb
Fixture of Dakka







 H.B.M.C. wrote:
PenitentJake wrote:
And calling them Brian dead is more than a little ironic.
C'mon man! What did Brian ever do to you?

He wasn't the Messiah.

2021-4 Plog - Here we go again... - my fifth attempt at a Dakka PLOG

My Pile of Potential - updates ongoing...

Gamgee on Tau Players wrote:we all kill cats and sell our own families to the devil and eat live puppies.


 Kanluwen wrote:
This is, emphatically, why I will continue suggesting nuking Guard and starting over again. It's a legacy army that needs to be rebooted with a new focal point.

Confirmation of why no-one should listen to Kanluwen when it comes to the IG - he doesn't want the IG, he want's Kan's New Model Army...

tneva82 wrote:
You aren't even trying ty pretend for honest arqument. Open bad faith trolling.
- No reason to keep this here, unless people want to use it for something... 
   
Made in us
Confessor Of Sins





Tacoma, WA, USA

 Dysartes wrote:
 H.B.M.C. wrote:
PenitentJake wrote:
And calling them Brian dead is more than a little ironic.
C'mon man! What did Brian ever do to you?

He wasn't the Messiah.
You need to always look on the bright side of life, Dysartes.
   
Made in us
Powerful Pegasus Knight






What are they doing with Guard. Year after year of stop gap and patches, and with the the potential rotation/ discontinuation of most if not all of the Cadian characters, (including Raine, the BL character), I wonder wtf is going on?
   
Made in us
Ultramarine Chaplain with Hate to Spare






 BlackoCatto wrote:
What are they doing with Guard. Year after year of stop gap and patches, and with the the potential rotation/ discontinuation of most if not all of the Cadian characters, (including Raine, the BL character), I wonder wtf is going on?
Guard are about to cross the rubicon and update to a new scale for humans. Guard units will all get bespoke weapons, and be reorganized so you can't mix weapons in their squads, too. Assault Lasrifle, Heavy Lasrifle, etc. Kits will be 80$ a box, and come with 5 models.

And They Shall Not Fit Through Doors!!!

Tyranid Army Progress -- With Classic Warriors!:
https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/743240.page#9671598 
   
Made in us
Decrepit Dakkanaut





 BlackoCatto wrote:
What are they doing with Guard. Year after year of stop gap and patches, and with the the potential rotation/ discontinuation of most if not all of the Cadian characters, (including Raine, the BL character), I wonder wtf is going on?


I feel like they want to do a big redo of the infantry lines, but haven't quite been able to line everything up. Gaunt's Ghosts leans that way and the Cadian kit was a stop gap of a sort.
   
Made in us
Morally-Flexible Malleus Hearing Whispers




 Insectum7 wrote:
 BlackoCatto wrote:
What are they doing with Guard. Year after year of stop gap and patches, and with the the potential rotation/ discontinuation of most if not all of the Cadian characters, (including Raine, the BL character), I wonder wtf is going on?
Guard are about to cross the rubicon and update to a new scale for humans. Guard units will all get bespoke weapons, and be reorganized so you can't mix weapons in their squads, too. Assault Lasrifle, Heavy Lasrifle, etc. Kits will be 80$ a box, and come with 5 models.


I know you're joking, but this is actually a scary concept I feel they "tried" with Gaunt's Ghosts. Variant Las weapons. I would not be surprised to see them so a "every squad has a marksman with a hot shot long las, and every squad sgt has a option of 3 types of lasrifle. Every squad can designate one member as a medic for X Points, and that squad member may be used to bring back one dead soldier per turn" or some such nonsense.
   
Made in us
Arch Magos w/ 4 Meg of RAM






FezzikDaBullgryn wrote:
 Insectum7 wrote:
 BlackoCatto wrote:
What are they doing with Guard. Year after year of stop gap and patches, and with the the potential rotation/ discontinuation of most if not all of the Cadian characters, (including Raine, the BL character), I wonder wtf is going on?
Guard are about to cross the rubicon and update to a new scale for humans. Guard units will all get bespoke weapons, and be reorganized so you can't mix weapons in their squads, too. Assault Lasrifle, Heavy Lasrifle, etc. Kits will be 80$ a box, and come with 5 models.


I know you're joking, but this is actually a scary concept I feel they "tried" with Gaunt's Ghosts. Variant Las weapons. I would not be surprised to see them so a "every squad has a marksman with a hot shot long las, and every squad sgt has a option of 3 types of lasrifle. Every squad can designate one member as a medic for X Points, and that squad member may be used to bring back one dead soldier per turn" or some such nonsense.


the medic and marskmen would be interesting at least. But lasguns shouldnt get variants IMO
   
Made in us
Painlord Titan Princeps of Slaanesh




Maybe they're looking for a new theme for IG. Something that says "I'm an Astra Militarium model not an Imperial Guard model." I don't know what that look would be but maybe finding it is what is making the Guard, um Astra Mil book take so long.
   
Made in us
Powerful Pegasus Knight






It all just worries me.
   
Made in ca
Longtime Dakkanaut





I was really surprised at the rotation out of Severina and Yarrick.

I'm really not liking range rotation, though I suppose it is achieving GW's goals- getting any folks who were holding out to finally buy, reducing sku bloat and getting finecast of the website.

As someone who has been happy with 9th ed, I expect some decent things from the guard dex. I'd love to see some of these retiring Resin kits back in plastic, but who knows?
   
Made in gb
Fixture of Dakka







I would ask the question on this batch if they are being rotated, or just gotten rid of - there's been no WHC piece talking up the rotation aspect this time, after all...

2021-4 Plog - Here we go again... - my fifth attempt at a Dakka PLOG

My Pile of Potential - updates ongoing...

Gamgee on Tau Players wrote:we all kill cats and sell our own families to the devil and eat live puppies.


 Kanluwen wrote:
This is, emphatically, why I will continue suggesting nuking Guard and starting over again. It's a legacy army that needs to be rebooted with a new focal point.

Confirmation of why no-one should listen to Kanluwen when it comes to the IG - he doesn't want the IG, he want's Kan's New Model Army...

tneva82 wrote:
You aren't even trying ty pretend for honest arqument. Open bad faith trolling.
- No reason to keep this here, unless people want to use it for something... 
   
Made in gb
Preparing the Invasion of Terra






When did they get put up? Warcom announces these things on Sundays remember.
   
Made in gb
Fixture of Dakka







I think they were spotted towards the end of last week, and I don't think there was anything about them the Sunday before - definitely wasn't anything on the most recent Sunday.

2021-4 Plog - Here we go again... - my fifth attempt at a Dakka PLOG

My Pile of Potential - updates ongoing...

Gamgee on Tau Players wrote:we all kill cats and sell our own families to the devil and eat live puppies.


 Kanluwen wrote:
This is, emphatically, why I will continue suggesting nuking Guard and starting over again. It's a legacy army that needs to be rebooted with a new focal point.

Confirmation of why no-one should listen to Kanluwen when it comes to the IG - he doesn't want the IG, he want's Kan's New Model Army...

tneva82 wrote:
You aren't even trying ty pretend for honest arqument. Open bad faith trolling.
- No reason to keep this here, unless people want to use it for something... 
   
Made in gb
Preparing the Invasion of Terra






Oh well, we'll know for sure if the kits aren't mentioned in the next Sunday round-up.
   
Made in au
Owns Whole Set of Skullz Techpriests






Versteckt in den Schatten deines Geistes.

Losing Yarrick is an end of an era.

Wouldn't say no to a plastic re-do though, as long as it doesn't go through a process of 'weird-i-fi-cation' like the Lord Commissar did when it made the jump from metal to plastic:
Spoiler:



There's just something... off... about that plastic mini.

Industrial Insanity - My Terrain Blog
"GW really needs to understand 'Less is more' when it comes to AoS." - Wha-Mu-077

 
   
Made in us
Painlord Titan Princeps of Slaanesh




Scars vs age lines. The top one looks tough the bottom one looks tired.
   
 
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