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http://www.advfn.com/quote_Games-Workshop_LSE_GAW.html

Take a look at this link showing GW's current stock figures. Its a 'ski slope'. I had expected something was up when a local store was closed down following yet another management shake up. However I was suprised by what I saw.

No gains on the run up to Christmas, ok its not quite the season to be jolly despite what the decorations inj the malls would have you think bvut I would expect by late Nov to have some break on the slide at least.

Also Apocalypse. I predicted that there would be a period of growth caused by encouraging people to buy and play large armies, there was one, but I expected the bubble to last two quarters, not two months. And it didnt even tail off to a parity from what was before but sttright back to the ski slope at a position it would be in if the slide had been continued from when Apocalypse was released.

Now its not all GW's fault, it will be a tight Christmas this year and a recession is on its way, but isnt that an even bigger incentive to get the business plan sorted out.

Have sales figures been released for the last few months?

Because stock prices aren't necessarily an indicator of sales.

The last sales statement was towards the end of September so Apoc's impact has not been seen.

However it is conventional trading wisdom that prices reflect the market's appreciation of future value, not current value. A continuing slide shows that investors are not confident in the future. It is also possible that investors are selling because of wider economic concerns such as the credit crunch and Northern Rock crisis.

Of course, good Christmas sales figures would be expected to turn things around.

Business plans take time to change. For example, retail space is usually held on a lease and cannot be divested until the lease comes up for renewal.

Not good.

Still no talk of a purchase that I have heard.

Strange, by now you'd think someone would be sniffing after GW's IP or their retail network,.

Perhaps no-one thinks GW's IP is worth anything?

Someone might buy them to get the retail network and asset strip it. I don't see a chain store group being interested -- Britain (where the most stores are) is already pretty well clone-towned to death with chain store groups. A lot of the shops are probably on leases which are a liability unless you have something to put in them.

Kilkrazy wrote:Perhaps no-one thinks GW's IP is worth anything?

Someone might buy them to get the retail network and asset strip it. I don't see a chain store group being interested -- Britain (where the most stores are) is already pretty well clone-towned to death with chain store groups. A lot of the shops are probably on leases which are a liability unless you have something to put in them.

All IP is worth something to someone. I mean next year we have both Eric Larson and Alex Ross seperately doing projects with obscure comics from the 1930s.

And with some brand reconition in the US and tons in the UK (even my old girlfriend knew there was something called Warhammer) I can see toy, video game or multimedia companies wanting to use it.

You guys need to look at this instead of the current stock price...

http://investor.games-workshop.com/latest_results/Results2007/full_year/businessreview.aspx

The stock price I expect to drop to 100, which is I think the real value.

GW is not really a worthwhile IP to anyone, it's a very niche business and besides video games there's not alot of synergy to interest others.

The latest of those reports dates to about the end of July 2007.

>>All IP is worth something to someone.

At the right price... I should more accurately have posted that perhaps the IP isn't worth as much as the current share price.

The thing is, GW's IP is a circularly supporting proposition consisting of the rules, the models and the fluff. None of them is particularly attractive by itself.

Videogames are an area of possible expansion however there is a serious danger of cannibalisation. If videogames are very successful it will sideline the current models business which is said to be their core area of profitability and where they have put a lot of their investment in capital equipment. Losing the models makes their retail chain and rules irrelevant because no-one will go into a GW shop just for a GW computer game. Whilst there is a clear overlap between wargamers and videogamers the pattern of purchase and use is very different.

Once the retail chain stops being self-supporting, how do GW get the fluff out to users to convince them to buy the videogames? Rely on sales of fiction through bookshops? Surely most users buy the fiction because they enjoy playing the wargames. Can GW generate enough excitement around 40K themed videogames to sustain a series of novels and comics?

Kilkrazy wrote:
Once the retail chain stops being self-supporting, how do GW get the fluff out to users to convince them to buy the videogames? Rely on sales of fiction through bookshops? Surely most users buy the fiction because they enjoy playing the wargames. Can GW generate enough excitement around 40K themed videogames to sustain a series of novels and comics?

Or movies/TV. Or toys.

I think we would all agree that it's the fluff that makes a 1" tall hunk of lead worth $20. Mr. Big Shoulderpads is worthless, but to those who know the game Abbaddon the Despoiler, clone son of Horus, wielder of the daemon sword H'rdt'sp'll, commander of the Black Legion and all around nice guy is worth $20 or more.

But as you said a game where you not only pay $20 for Abby, but then have assemble and paint him, and 50 other guts, and 4-5 vehicles and maybe build some terrain and learn a phone book sized rulebook is unattractive.

but if I wanted to make GW games as profitable as possible I would put out something like Clix or SW minis or action figures. Use GW's existing fluff to sell products most people want.

So that's the route I would expect Mattel or Hasbro or Blizzard or a holding company or whomever to take. If it was blizzard they could then rebrand GW stores as Blizzard Stores, sell prepainted action figues and boardgames and high end collectable based on WoW and Starcraft and GW stuff.

GW's business model, to my mind, is an IP driven model. have a world. have mini games, video games, novels, whatever tied into it. Sell all that crap in your own stores to raise awareness and give existing fans a place to go and find like-minded people. Have some means of interacting with the world that sucks up time and money and turns people from casual buyers into trekie like fanatics.

I think it's an interesting model, GW's main flaw is relying on the mini games a bit too much and not also having video games, action figures and suchwot at the stores.

It seems to me that the whole WH40K phenomenom is based on exactly the things KilKrazy has mentioned!

If someone were to consider buying the IP of WH40K, they'd have to take it on lock, stock and smoking....the fluff on its own is completely worthless, why? becuase outside of the trio of interests its completely generic, and a mixture already established genres (Aliens, Terminator, Starship troopers, etc)

The miniatures only support the fluff (kinda) and again as a stand-alone entity are pointless, most other systems generate their own minature range, so as these other miniatures are not compatible with GW games, its the same vise versa!

The rules? well, browse the forum to get an idea if thats a sane business investment!?!?

It strikes me that GW has painted itself into a corner, and has allowed itself to expand too far (if that could be considered a valid issue in modern commercialisation) this is a business model that has become a victim of its own success, and now seems to be in the throws of a inter company recession.

I don't see a way for GW to actually overcome this issue without reinventing itself, at the cost to its exsiting range?

Their future is looking tword video games.

How much GW can exploit that will determine if they make a profit within the next year or so. Oil prices are going to continue to rise, the cost of the materials for the minis can't do them any better, If they are going to continue to hold all of the companies, they are going to have to start looking at alternatives to thier game mediums.

Of course with the stagnation of thought that they continue to show, My money would go on THQ before I'd set cash down on GW.

Video games... its the new miniature.

Whilst organising a major company is not my forte,

Grot6, I disagree. Video games are an 'easy' fix. Buy the game, install it(hopefully no H/ware issues) and play away.

I used to play RT in the 80's. Discovered Starcraft, Total Annihilation, Frozen Throne blah blah. Had a hiatus of about 12 years. Am now right back into 40k collecting/playing.

I think personally, that to play a game like 40k takes a certain type of person. I also think that GW know this and target with fluff according to thier niche market.

I like Flight Sims. I LOVE flying my RC plane better though.

Just an opinion. I think if they do not support Apoc., a downsizing may occur, but to vanish into digital media is unlikely.

but to those who know the game Abbaddon the Despoiler, clone son of Horus, wielder of the daemon sword H'rdt'sp'll, commander of the Black Legion and all around nice guy is worth $20 or more.

No. It's not.
Most gamers I know (personally AND online) disagree with that whole-heartedly. In fact, to us, it's only worth about HALF of that... Which would still net them a profit over their costs for the mini, I'm sure.

That's the problem. GW has its' own little world where it has convinced some people, and is trying to convince others, that the prices they sell for are actually a GOOD VALUE for the minis. If that was the case, there would be less buniness for online retailers, as most people I know would pay retail price for something we thought was WORTH the retail price to compensate for the ability to walk up, buy it, and have it RIGHT THEN, rather than wait for shipping.

Eric

They are overpriced but who cares? Why do we get so much thrill from GW's aparent slump in stock prices?? It only meens we will have to pay more for thier mini's/

If they go bust then what will we do?? We will all be lost without them.

Moral of the story ~GO BUY MORE GW STUFF SO THEY DONT GET BUST

beef wrote:... Why do we get so much thrill from GW's aparent slump in stock prices?? .../

... ...

...

Schadenfreude.

Beef

Well, what happens if GW goes bust? Suddenly your miniature collection dissappears? your rule books explode in a puff of smoke? all your dice get two dimensional and only show a 1 and a 6?

No, you can go on playing till the cows come home. However, theres no more expansions, no more minis.....but then, big deal?!? You could argue, what more do you actually need to continue the WH40K universe? I mean, its really expanding is it....and its not like they've written in anything into the fluff that could lead to some real "developments" in the future....

...in the future its only war, blah blah blah.....whoopee!

Now, on the other hand, if GW goes bust, the IP gets released (potentially) and someone else gets to drive the car, perhaps develop a better more balanced rules set, get the scale on the miniatures right? maybe even...wait for it, include a little something into the fluff that doesn't reek of stagnation.....just maybe?!?!

While I do love me some OOP games (I'm looking at you, Chainmail), and get a little thrill when I see the old figs stocked in a store somewhere at steep discount, the reality is it becomes harder to find opponents once a game 'dies'. And it really doesn't matter how big the game was, either.

Example: when was the last time you saw someone play Warzone, which was 40k's biggest competition in the 90s? There were PLENTY of people who played that game, and lots of minis flying off the shelves, and I'm sure, if you looked long and hard enough, you could find opponents, but casually? You're up the creek, pal.

Should GW die, there will be plenty of people who won't miss the game, some who'll use their old figs for new games (5150, AT-43, Warmachine, something else) and lots of people who'll have piles of lead that'll end up in a closet somewhere, never to see the light of day again.

Yair,

Funny you should mention Warzone. Xenite wants to try to get
people to use their 40k figs for Warzone next week. Sounds like
it will be different. (I never really looked at the rules)

Not sure how widespread it is, but Apocalypse is a huge hit in my area. It's gotten to where I can't get a game in because every time I go to the FLGS, there's a 3 on 3 or 4 on 4 Apocalypse game going on.

And not just any Apocalypse game... An Apocalypse game with, say, 10 unpainted Vindicators on the table (or whatever else).

My impression is that Apoc has had a huge sales impact for GW, but that's purely based on local evidence.

I wonder if a film option should of be considered a few years ago. It would appear that a film tie in gives companies a sales boost. It happened with LoTR, so why not 40k? GW could of used it as an opportunity to produce a range of pre-painted models for the film fans, this could of raised easy money and tested the water for pre-painted. You coud then get a bleed off with people taking up the original game.

Hmmm.....a WH40K film......I see a problem with this, consider the good old Aliens v Predator......

A WH40K film would have cost £billions to make it anywhere as good as it would need to be, to draw in the kinda of merchandising you are talking about.....

You'd also need a film studio to get involved, and film studios are never silent partners, they'd want to have some say in the content of the movie.....this may or may not be an issue for GW, who have tended to jealously guard their I.P

Maybe, we're witnessing the death spasms of a dying Dragon, maybe GW and WH have simply run their course. People have moved onto other things and whats left in the market can't sustain the beast any longer....I wouldn't be surprised if that were the case.

Maybe the only way for GW to survive into the future is to begin the path to compressing its operations, and basically downsizing. Make use of independant retailers rather than having a chain of GW stores around the world, concentrate on keeping their current customer base happy without compromising future customers. Loosen up on the I.P and allow fresh ideas and products to help boost the brand outside of the "circle of trust".......

Wolfstan wrote:I wonder if a film option should of be considered a few years ago. It would appear that a film tie in gives companies a sales boost. It happened with LoTR, so why not 40k? GW could of used it as an opportunity to produce a range of pre-painted models for the film fans, this could of raised easy money and tested the water for pre-painted. You coud then get a bleed off with people taking up the original game.

Ahem.


40K cannot and will never be made into a commercial live action film no matter what you may hear. There have been rumblings in the past (and they made a couple hokey live action tests a decade ago) and there may be rumblings in the future but it will never ever happen. The reason is simple:


The 40K universe is too bleak to make into a commercial movie but at the same time the imagery when actually built full scale looks pretty damn silly. So on the one hand you have "grim grim darkness" and on the other hand you have silly looking giant guys wearing bright red armor with shoulder pads bigger than their heads.

So the studio has to make a choice: Make the 40K universe true to the spirit of the game, which means spending millions and millions on effects, makeup and sets and make a movie that is dark, bleak and only appeals to the relatively small gaming community that already knows about it.

Or, you can mutilate the 40K universe into something commercially interesting (Space Marine gets the girl!) and ultimately alienate the core fan-base and fail miserably because the movie has no focus (i.e. dungeons and dragons with a Wayan brother in it).



Now, they could make a CGI or anime 40K animated movie and you get around a lot of those issues: The budget is much smaller and you can cheat stuff like Orks and Space Marines to actually make them look cool (which is very hard to do with live action).

Its not all doom & gloom. Apoc is a huge hit locally. nearly everyone who could scrape up $ 95 bought a baneblade. They would buy Titans, Stompas too if GW made a model (a lost oppurtunity). Forgeworld is going so gang-busters it cannot keep up with demand.

Wait for the post Apoc release numbers. Might even be a good time to buy GW stock ....

I dunno, yak...

Some of what you say certainly rings true. I just saw the Hitman movie, and while there wasn't any sort of consummation, there was a love interest of sorts, which, in and of itself, is not at all in keeping with the Hitman fluff. There's definitely a pressure in Hollywood to add a love story into everything.

That said, I do think the 40K fluff, the vision, all stands on its own, and would make a fantastic movie. Expensive and CGI-laden, perhaps, but I think it's a fantastic vision, and would make a (relatively) universally appealing film.

Also, an all CGI film is far from cheap. Beowulf (which I saw the other night) had a $70 million budget. To put that in context, the budget on Blackhawk Down was $92 million. Spider Man 3 is the most expensive movie ever made at $258 million.

Grot 6 wrote:Their future is looking tword video games.

How much GW can exploit that will determine if they make a profit within the next year or so. Oil prices are going to continue to rise, the cost of the materials for the minis can't do them any better, If they are going to continue to hold all of the companies, they are going to have to start looking at alternatives to thier game mediums.

Of course with the stagnation of thought that they continue to show, My money would go on THQ before I'd set cash down on GW.

Video games... its the new miniature.

that's a lisencing thing..

more likely their true future is a reorganization where they find a legal means to dump most of the company debt, they restructure and emerge as a "new" company with all of the old people involved and start back up where they left off.

That's why GW is owned by a holding company.

syr8766 wrote:While I do love me some OOP games (I'm looking at you, Chainmail), and get a little thrill when I see the old figs stocked in a store somewhere at steep discount, the reality is it becomes harder to find opponents once a game 'dies'. And it really doesn't matter how big the game was, either.

Example: when was the last time you saw someone play Warzone, which was 40k's biggest competition in the 90s? There were PLENTY of people who played that game, and lots of minis flying off the shelves, and I'm sure, if you looked long and hard enough, you could find opponents, but casually? You're up the creek, pal.

Should GW die, there will be plenty of people who won't miss the game, some who'll use their old figs for new games (5150, AT-43, Warmachine, something else) and lots of people who'll have piles of lead that'll end up in a closet somewhere, never to see the light of day again.

Not really a true analogy. GW's sales/fanbase are several orders of magnitude greater than Chainmail or Warzone. Just the income from Codex and rules sales alone is more than most of its competition could dream of.

If GW 'dies' then within a month the game will continue on with new owners.

Grot 6 wrote:Oil prices are going to continue to rise, the cost of the materials for the minis can't do them any better, If they are going to continue to hold all of the companies, they are going to have to start looking at alternatives to thier game mediums.

How much of the cost of a $45 box of Space Marines comes from the oil used in the plastics? A nickel? Maybe a quarter?

It's not significant. Oil prices are more significant in terms of transportation and manufacturing costs than materials - but those apply to video games just as much.

Though who knows, maybe in your area FASA is still thriving because of the success of the Battletech video games.

Cant speak for the rest of the world, but the US is in a freaking HUGE slump.

Not only is the dollar weak (making it a good time to purchase from the U.S.) but commodities prices are on the rise. Wheat is high, oil went up to $100 a barrel recently, etc.

This means that food costs as well as gas are high, leaving less room for non essentials. Further shrinking an already niche market.

Prices everywhere are rising across the board.

So the price of GW stock may not be truly indicative of poor GW performance.

as far as oil prices reflecting the prices for plastic, this is a misnomer. GW has stated in their financial report a year or two ago that plastics cost in regards to increased oil prices aren't affected noticeably, with the prices for material going up less than .5% from it previous 3% total raw material cost, which also includes things such as packaging, labor, advertising, etc...

While oil prices may have little to do with actual raw material, the most certainly have to do with everything else. How do you think those shiny new mini's get to your grubby little hands? Trucks, boats and planes don't run on love and happiness.

@Yakface

I mostly agree with your take on the movie idea, and that a feat of moving picture would not come cheap!

However, that Space Marines look silly is perhaps a little harsh. I mean, doe sthe Predator look silly? or ED209? or Stormtroopers?....nothing ultimately looks silly if the function is explained and its use seems viable. Large shoulder pads would be a useful thing on a 40K battlefield, as would overal body armour.....your average Navy SEAL would suffer some serious bad hair day on a typical WH40K war zone.....don't you think?

In terms of bleakness....well, Underworld wasn't exactly filled will light and roses, neither was Aliens.....how much bleaker can you get than Terminator!!

Bleak has a place in modern cinema, and as for "needing" a love angle, well...I never saw the Predator getting some, and the Terminator kept his little probe behind his leather pants!

But anyhow, even if 20th Century Fox wanted some lovin, well...its not like WH40K is all about Space Marines...you could easily build in a story about the "forbidden" love between an Inquisitor and an Eldar....hmm, or perhaps the uneasy relationship between a Battle Sister and a member of the Imperial Guard....or even more kinky, two Battle Sisters (kinda like a decent version of Broke-back Mountain...well, a version I would pay to see at any rate!)