Kirika wrote:Farseer
Runes of Witnessing isn't really worth it actually increases your chances of getting double 1s and failing.
Chance of rolling 2 on
2d6 = 2.8%
Chance of rolling 2 on
3d6 take the lowest = 7.4%
So while what you say is sort of true, it isn't the whole story. First of all, while rolling 2 does casue parils of the warp (which you ignore on a 3+ due to the ghost helm) it doesn't prevent the power you are casting from going off. So you are correct in saying that your chances of getting parils of the warp are higher because the combined chance of rollng 2 and 12 are:
Chance of rolling 2 or 12 on
2d6 = 5.6%
Chance of rolling 2 or 12 on
3d6 take the lowest = 7.9%
On the other hand, the chance of sucessfully casting the power goes up by a fair margin.
Chance of failing a power roll (rolling 11 or 12) on
2d6 = 8.3%
Chance of failing a power roll (rolling 11 or 12) on
3d6 take the lowest = 1.9%
In general, I find the stones to be a worthwhile purchase if I have the points to spend but they are quick to go when I need to scrounge up points for something else. In addition, if you are putting your farseer somewhere that you have a warlock, getting the warlock embolden is a much more effective way of ensuring your powers work properly.
Fire Dragons
Fire dragon exarch really isn't worth it unless you intend to give him the dragon's breath flamer with crack shot to make Dragons not just anti tank or anti meq.
If you are planning on multi tasking your fire dragons, then an exarch with crack shot and the flamer is the way to go. If you plan on keeping your dragons focused on anti tank work (something I recommend since you are rather lacking in anti tank power) I would suggest skipping the exarch all together and just buying normal dragons. The minimal anti tank power gained from the exarch is simply not worth the points in most cases.
Wave Serpents
Consider a Brightlance here for more anti tank or a missle launcher but the missle launcher is not so good against av14
More good advice since, again, you are lacking anti tank power.
Falcons
Not to sure these are worth it. definately cut vectored engines. Spirit stones are a must to not get stunned. Would replace with wave serpents, cheaper and have the energy field and have a twinlinked weapon. The falcon does get 2 pulse laser shots though.
I have mixed feelings about all of this. First off though, if you are going to be transporting units in your falcons (and you will be) then making sure that they keep moving is paramount. To that end, you'll want to make sure they all have spirit stones. If you have to ditch vectored engines to do that, then so be it. When you are equiped with holo fields, 25% of penetrating hits will result in the "can't move or shoot" result where as only 13.8% will result in immobilized (these numbers go to 13.8% and 2.5% respectively when looking at glancing hits). Now on the topic of switching out to serpents, you have a lot to consider there. When it comes to survivability, the falcon is much harder to kill than the wave serpent. This is because the holofield does a much better job at keeping the tank from getting damaged than the energy field does (I could run numbers on it, but it would be exhaustive due to it being different for every weapon). The wave serpent also packs less fire power than the falcon does. On the serpent's side though is the fact that it costs less, its weapons are more accurate (and you'll only be shooting one gun from either tank if you're zooming 12" a turn towards the enemy), and it can hold more models (so you could beef up the squad sizes with the points you save). So in the end, the choice is really up to you to decide what route you want to take with your tanks.
For anti tank power comparison...
Chance of wave serpent with twin lances destroying an
AV 12, 13 or 14 vehicle = 8.3%
Chance of falcon with missile launcher destroying an
AV 12 vehicle = 16%
Chance of falcon with missile launcher destroying an
AV 13 vehicle = 8%
Chance of falcon with missile launcher destroying an
AV 14 vehicle = 0% (weapons can only glance so you can't kill a vehicle in 1 turn)
Dire Avengers
10 for 120 points seems like the best deal here. Eldar are expensive and giving up your next turns of shooting for an extra 10 shots isn't too good most of the time and your paying alot of points for it.
Giving up your next turn of shooting is only a bad idea if you can expect to get a next turn of shooting at full effect. I'd much rather have 20 shots this turn and 20 shots next turn than 30 shots this turn. However, you can't always expect that to happen. If I move up on a target and open fire, I'll do some damage. I'll do more damage with 30 shots than I will with 20. Whatever I don't kill with my initial shooting is going to come after me next turn (either with shooting, assault or both). Any avengers that die between the first round and the second are not going to be able to shoot on the second round. In addition, if the squad ends up in hand to hand, none of them will be able to fire on the second round. So the question is, do you think you can cause enough damage with the 20 shots to keep more of your avengers alive for the second round to make it worth it, or are you better off just blowing the second round of shooting now for half the number of extra shots? Most of the time I find that having the extra shots now is the better deal. It means you take less damage and often times you are either in hand to hand after the first round of shooting or you've wiped out your near by targets and you'll have to spend a round repositioning yourself to get in more shooting anyway.