Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!

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**Ketara**

Dreadclaw69 wrote:
Iron_Captain wrote:
Frazzled wrote:
Reports of armed units taking over airports. Some are calling them Russian commandoes.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/28/gunmen-crimean-airports-ukraine

Well, they do wear Russian uniforms...

Show of hands for all those surprised if this is in fact the case?

I'd be surprised. That would be too obvious, and considering what lengths Russia is going to to deny affiliation, too easily proven.

It's most likely a Russian funded Ukrainian militia group (there's already one armed such group who have declared themselves), part of the local Ukrainian military who have no interest in taking orders from Kiev, or a group of soldiers who were suprisingly granted an early discharge from the Russian military four days ago.

It amused me when the Kiev administration jumped up and down and said they were Russians, and then turned around said they'd been taken care of. If the Russian military was genuinely engaged in live firefights with the Ukrainian Army right now, I'm pretty sure it would be a hell of a lot more obvious.

**Jihadin**

Spetsnaz..................

**Iron_Captain**

Ketara wrote:
Dreadclaw69 wrote:
Iron_Captain wrote:
Frazzled wrote:
Reports of armed units taking over airports. Some are calling them Russian commandoes.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/28/gunmen-crimean-airports-ukraine

Well, they do wear Russian uniforms...

Show of hands for all those surprised if this is in fact the case?

I'd be surprised. That would be too obvious, and considering what lengths Russia is going to to deny affiliation, too easily proven.

It's most likely a Russian funded Ukrainian militia group (there's already one armed such group who have declared themselves), part of the local Ukrainian military who have no interest in taking orders from Kiev, or a group of soldiers who were suprisingly granted an early discharge from the Russian military four days ago.

It amused me when the Kiev administration jumped up and down and said they were Russians, and then turned around said they'd been taken care of. If the Russian military was genuinely engaged in live firefights with the Ukrainian Army right now, I'm pretty sure it would be a hell of a lot more obvious.

They are not wearing any insignia on their uniforms, so Russia can deny any involvement, but those are the standard issue uniforms and weapons of the Russian naval infantry in Sevastopol. I know those all too well.

chaos0xomega wrote:

No, Ukrainians are still a minority in the Crimea. Russians are the majority, therefore it is Russian territory.

Well, maybe the Russians should leave. Again, as you said, ownership changes through history, Crimea was made a part of Ukraine, if the Russians there aren't happy with the new management, they have a right to leave. As you said, "Land does not belong to any group by default."

That is nonsense, why should the Russians leave if they can also take back what is rightfully theirs? Russians still are the majority, and if the Ukrainians don't like that they should be the ones to leave. Land does not belong to any group by default, it belongs to the group that currently is the majority there. Crimea belongs to the Crimean Russians.

**Sienisoturi**

Just for a food of dicussion, what do you think happens if Russia starts a full blown attack on Ukraine?

**Ketara**

Iron_Captain wrote:

They are not wearing any insignia on their uniforms, so Russia can deny any involvement, but those are the standard issue uniforms and weapons of the Russian naval infantry in Sevastopol. I know those all too well.

And if I put you into a Russian uniform and gave you a Russian weapon, would it make you a member of the Russian military? I'm not saying that's what's happening here necessarily, merely highlighting that at this stage, nothing should be taken for granted. It wouldn't be the first time Russia armed a militia that supported them, and with the speed this has all kicked off at, if those are the local Russian weapons/outfits? Those would be the obvious ones to hand for distribution to arm pro-russian groups.

**trexmeyer**

Sienisoturi wrote:
Just for a food of dicussion, what do you think happens if Russia starts a full blown attack on Ukraine?

The rest of the world watches as Ukraine is absorbed into Russia.

**SkavenLord**

Sienisoturi wrote:
Just for a food of dicussion, what do you think happens if Russia starts a full blown attack on Ukraine?

This may be a little out there but I'm thinking it may escalate. Maybe something along the lines of how world war 1 started. A country is allied with Ukraine and supports it, another country supports Russia and joins in the fray. Maybe not as big as world war 1 but still something big.

**djones520**

SkavenLord wrote:
Sienisoturi wrote:
Just for a food of dicussion, what do you think happens if Russia starts a full blown attack on Ukraine?

This may be a little out there but I'm thinking it may escalate. Maybe something along the lines of how world war 1 started. A country is allied with Ukraine and supports it, another country supports Russia and joins in the fray. Maybe not as big as world war 1 but still something big.

Yeah... but that would mean we'd have to trust on Obama to keep his word that we've got Ukraines back. If I were a Ukrainian... I wouldn't be breathing easy.

**Ketara**

Sienisoturi wrote:
Just for a food of dicussion, what do you think happens if Russia starts a full blown attack on Ukraine?

Ukraine gets absorbed, everyone tuts and maybe takes a handful of economic sanctions against Russia for the next six months. Meanwhile, America rethinks their withdrawal strategy from Europe.

America likes being the only one throwing around a few hundred thousand well armed soldiers. It makes them nervous when other people do it.

**djones520**

Ketara wrote:
Sienisoturi wrote:
Just for a food of dicussion, what do you think happens if Russia starts a full blown attack on Ukraine?

Ukraine gets absorbed, everyone tuts and maybe takes a handful of economic sanctions against Russia for the next six months. Meanwhile, America rethinks their withdrawal strategy from Europe.

America likes being the only one throwing around a few hundred thousand well armed soldiers. It makes them nervous when other people do it.

Is anyone else in anyway surprised that this starts just days after we announce we're going to make massive cuts to our Active Duty Army, and Air Force aircraft?

Russia currently has a quarter of it's Army on an "exercise" right on the Ukranian border, and they have their SpecOps guys in Ukraine laying groundwork. I wouldn't be surprised if nothing large scale happens, but they are certainly laying the ground work for a massive invasion. With the current state of affairs in the government, the Ukranian Army being able to organize any real resistance... well it's just not gonna happen.

**Ketara**

They don't need to invade. The army is just flexing its muscles on the border as a distraction. Putin will get his satellite state without needing to invoke Soviet style tank columns, just by playing the waiting game and meddling a judicious amount politically and economically.

**chaos0xomega**

Ketara wrote:
Dreadclaw69 wrote:
Iron_Captain wrote:
Frazzled wrote:
Reports of armed units taking over airports. Some are calling them Russian commandoes.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/28/gunmen-crimean-airports-ukraine

Well, they do wear Russian uniforms...

Show of hands for all those surprised if this is in fact the case?

I'd be surprised. That would be too obvious, and considering what lengths Russia is going to to deny affiliation, too easily proven.

It's most likely a Russian funded Ukrainian militia group (there's already one armed such group who have declared themselves), part of the local Ukrainian military who have no interest in taking orders from Kiev, or a group of soldiers who were suprisingly granted an early discharge from the Russian military four days ago.

It amused me when the Kiev administration jumped up and down and said they were Russians, and then turned around said they'd been taken care of. If the Russian military was genuinely engaged in live firefights with the Ukrainian Army right now, I'm pretty sure it would be a hell of a lot more obvious.

As I understood it, there were no firefights whatsoever. The Russians/militiamen/dudes in uniform kinda just showed up, said absolutely nothing to anyone whatsoever, and simply made their presence known and felt and patroled around. Then, just as suddenly as they came, they loaded into trucks and disappeared.

That is nonsense, why should the Russians leave if they can also take back what is rightfully theirs? Russians still are the majority, and if the Ukrainians don't like that they should be the ones to leave. Land does not belong to any group by default, it belongs to the group that currently is the majority there. Crimea belongs to the Crimean Russians.

So... Chechnya belongs to Chechens, Dagestan to the Avars or whomever, Tatarstan should be independent, Karelia to Kareliansetc. etc. etc? And if land does not belong to any group of people by default, Crimea is not 'rightfully Russian'. The Russians seemed to have no issue forcibly moving populations out of lands that were 'rightfully not-Russian', I say Ukraine should relocate the Crimean Russians back to the Russian Federation, much like Russia relocated Prussians from East Prussia. If you want Crimea to be Russian, you do it the right way and fight a war to conquer that territory or you hand over a check for it, until then the land of Crimea, if not its people, belong to Ukraine, and if the people don't like it, they can fight a war or move to Russia.

And before you try anything clever, my position on something like say Texas is the same... if they want to be a separate country, well then Mexico is just south of the river, enjoy!

And for the record, I'm not necessarily against Russia on this one, while I am of the opinion that Crimea should stay a part of Ukraine, if Russia wants to do something about that, then I fully support it. A resurgent Russia should be scary enough to enough Americans to keep defense dollars a-flowin'!

**Ketara**

chaos0xomega wrote:

As I understood it, there were no firefights whatsoever. The Russians/militiamen/dudes in uniform kinda just showed up, said absolutely nothing to anyone whatsoever, and simply made their presence known and felt and patroled around. Then, just as suddenly as they came, they loaded into trucks and disappeared.

That was what made me laugh. The bloke in Kiev pretending to be Interior Minister made it sound like he'd personally chased them off.

**Iron_Captain**

Sienisoturi wrote:
Just for a food of dicussion, what do you think happens if Russia starts a full blown attack on Ukraine?

What would happen is rather simple:
Russia would invade, the Ukrainian army, which is divided on the issue itself would not put up much resistance.
South-eastern Ukraine becomes part of Russia, the people in Kiev are outraged.
The US and EU heavily dissaprove but are powerless to do anything, at worst they are going to say its illegitimate and that Russia is being very naughty.
Putin will respond: 'Lulz, all are now belongs to Mother Russia'
World will go on as if it had never happened.
At worst relations between the US and Russia will be even more strained. The EU can not risk offending Russia too much because they are fully dependent on Russian gas.

chaos0xomega wrote:

That is nonsense, why should the Russians leave if they can also take back what is rightfully theirs? Russians still are the majority, and if the Ukrainians don't like that they should be the ones to leave. Land does not belong to any group by default, it belongs to the group that currently is the majority there. Crimea belongs to the Crimean Russians.

So... Chechnya belongs to Chechens, Dagestan to the Avars or whomever, Tatarstan should be independent, Karelia to Kareliansetc. etc. etc? And if land does not belong to any group of people by default, Crimea is not 'rightfully Russian'. The Russians seemed to have no issue forcibly moving populations out of lands that were 'rightfully not-Russian', I say Ukraine should relocate the Crimean Russians back to the Russian Federation, much like Russia relocated Prussians from East Prussia. If you want Crimea to be Russian, you do it the right way and fight a war to conquer that territory or you hand over a check for it, until then the land of Crimea, if not its people, belong to Ukraine, and if the people don't like it, they can fight a war or move to Russia.

And before you try anything clever, my position on something like say Texas is the same... if they want to be a separate country, well then Mexico is just south of the river, enjoy!

And for the record, I'm not necessarily against Russia on this one, while I am of the opinion that Crimea should stay a part of Ukraine, if Russia wants to do something about that, then I fully support it. A resurgent Russia should be scary enough to enough Americans to keep defense dollars a-flowin'!

I don't think you understand me. Imo, land belongs to whatever people happen to form the majority there at the moment. If those people then want to be independent from whatever country they are in, it is their full right to declare independence. Whether the country in question will allow it is a different question altogether.
I was born on the Crimea and I consider it my home, but should all Russians ever dissapear from there, than it will obviously not be my home anymore, I would have no business there anymore. That is the way things work, and a American should know that above all else, considering you got your land by displacing and murdering the native population

(Russia actually did exactly the same. Russia started as a single city next to Lake Ilmen, everything else is conquered, but whatever

).

Also, if you ever meet Russians, please tell them Americans are indeed very scared of Russia and quake in fear whenever someone mentions 'Russia'. It will make them very happy

**Ketara**

Iron_Captain wrote:

At worst relations between the US and Russia will be even more strained. The EU can not risk offending Russia too much because they are fully dependent on Russian gas.

With North Sea Oil and coal reserves, we Brits don't have to worry too much about Russian opinion.

And if those fail, we don't spend all our Government's time buttering up all those oil rich-pseudo royal Arabs for nothing!

**chaos0xomega**

Also, if you ever meet Russians, please tell them Americans are indeed very scared of Russia and quake in fear whenever someone mentions 'Russia'. It will make them very happy

Will do lol

**Jihadin**

Russia will gradually slow the flow of natural gas into the Ukraine....
Russia consumes half of Ukraine on a deal thereby controlling the majority of the heavy industries located in Eastern Ukraine
EU scrambles to save the other half financially
US scrambles to put some sort of aid package together
Western Ukraine has a version of the US Great Depression
Western Ukraine has mass "GTFOD" migration syndrome
Russia wins

Crimea, become a nation of their own and depends on Russia for its petroleum needs hence a Defense treaty is made allowing Russian military bases to remain open

Crimea wins.
Russia wins

EU gets financially strained
US gets schooled again by Putin
Putin wins and receives a white mare to match his stallion.

**Dreadclaw69**

What will be interesting is what happens if anyone takes a shot at these mysterious men in uniform. After all, none of them appear to be wearing any identifying insignia.

**Breotan**

I don't understand what the uproar is all about. President Obama stated there was one of those (apparently dotted) lines that he didn't want crossed. Just like in Syria. Right?

**whembly**

Uh... did gak get real?

CONFIRMED: Russian APC convoy moving in Crimea without permission from #Ukraine government http://t.co/NtU7KqUAfe pic.twitter.com/xVmtbzCGHE

— The Interpreter (@Interpreter_Mag) February 28, 2014

BREAKING NEWS: 13 Russian aircraft landed at base near Sevastopol with 150 people on each. Via @SkyNews

— PzFeed Top News (@PzFeed) February 28, 2014

**purplefood**

So...
This is an invasion...
I'm not getting this wrong or anything am i? Russia are literally walking into Ukraine without permission?

**Frazzled**

Supposedly there are now 2,000 troops that have arrived via plane.

Yea, that looks like an invasion.

**Some_Call_Me_Tim?**

Dang. This is not looking good.

~Tim?

**Jihadin**

These two airports. How close are they to the Russian Naval Base there.

**Dreadclaw69**

whembly wrote:
Uh... did gak get real?

CONFIRMED: Russian APC convoy moving in Crimea without permission from #Ukraine government http://t.co/NtU7KqUAfe pic.twitter.com/xVmtbzCGHE

— The Interpreter (@Interpreter_Mag) February 28, 2014

BREAKING NEWS: 13 Russian aircraft landed at base near Sevastopol with 150 people on each. Via @SkyNews

— PzFeed Top News (@PzFeed) February 28, 2014

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26379722

Ukraine has accused Russia of carrying out an armed invasion by sending naval forces to occupy Sevastopol airport in the Crimea region.

Russia's Black Sea Fleet denies its servicemen are blocking the airport.

Another Crimean airport, Simferopol, has also been occupied by armed men, thought to be pro-Russia militia.

Relations between the two countries have been strained since Viktor Yanukovych was ousted as Ukrainian president last week.

Sevastopol is by name an international airport, but civilian flights stopped some years ago, and it is owned by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence.

So it would be of no real consequence that soldiers are guarding a military base were it not for the fact no-one knows whose orders they are obeying.

There are roadblocks springing up from here to the administrative capital Simferopol.

The local parliament is in session there, but is sharing the municipal building with a paramilitary unit, and Simferopol airport is also under protection.

The interim interior minister, however, is quite clear on his Facebook page who he thinks these units are.

They are answering to the Russian Federation he said - and this, he adds, is a military takeover.

Mr Yanukovych is now in Russia and expected to hold a news conference later in the city of Rostov-on-Don, near the Ukrainian border.

He disappeared after leaving office but resurfaced in Russia on Thursday, asserting that he is still Ukraine's lawful president.

Ukraine's general prosecutor has said he will ask Russia to extradite Mr Yanukovych, if it is confirmed that he is still there.

In other developments:

The BBC has seen eight trucks with the black plates of the Russian army moving towards Simferopol
Unconfirmed reports say eight Russian military helicopters have arrived in Sevastopol
Ukraine's central bank has put a 15,000 hryvnia (1,000 euro; £820) limit on daily cash withdrawals
Armed Forces chief Yuriy Ilyin, appointed earlier this month by Mr Yanukovych, is sacked
Ukraine's parliament calls on the UN Security Council to discuss the unfolding crisis in Crimea
Lynchpin of struggle
These tensions between Russia and Ukraine in the wake of Mr Yanukovych's departure have been particularly evident in Crimea, Ukraine's only Russian-majority region.

The BBC's Bridget Kendall, in Moscow, says the Crimea is becoming the lynchpin of a struggle between Ukraine's new leaders and those loyal to Russia.

They have declined to say who they are, and are wearing no identifying insignia

Men whom Ukraine says are Russian naval troops have also blocked roads to Sevastopol airport

Meanwhile people are still reeling from the violence in Kiev, which led to the ousting of Mr Yanukovych.
Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said Russian soldiers had arrived in Sevastopol military airport near Russia's Black Sea Fleet Base on Friday morning.

The men were patrolling outside, backed up by armoured vehicles, but Ukrainian military and border guards remained inside, Mr Avakov said.

"I consider what has happened to be an armed invasion and occupation in violation of all international agreements and norms," Mr Avakov said on his Facebook page.

A man called Vladimir told Reuters news agency he was a volunteer helping the group there, though he said he did not know where they came from.

Simferopol is the main international terminal, serving the regional capital
Sevastopol, home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet, has a Soviet-era military airport (Belbek) which was also used for civilian flights until some years ago. Ukrainian air force jets are stationed there
The Russian Black Sea Fleet has aircraft stationed at other air bases in Crimea (Gvardeyskaya and Kacha)
"I'm with the People's Militia of Crimea. We're simple people, volunteers," he said.

Andriy Parubiy, acting chairman of Ukraine's National Security Council, has claimed that both airports are now back under the control of Ukrainian authorities.

The airport occupation is latest in a series of moves to raise fears of unrest in Crimea, which traditionally leans towards Russia.

On Thursday, a group of unidentified armed men entered Crimea's parliament building by force, and hoisted a Russian flag on the roof.

The Crimean parliament later announced it would hold a referendum on expanding the region's autonomy from Ukraine on 25 May.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has urged his government to maintain relations with Kiev, but he is also giving the Crimean government humanitarian aid.

US Secretary of State John Kerry has called on all sides to "step back and avoid any kind of provocations".

Financial strain
On top of its political problems, Ukraine also faces huge financial hurdles.

It says it needs $35 billion over the next two years to avoid default on its loans.

Russia has suspended the next instalment of a $15bn loan because of the political uncertainty.

Switzerland and Austria announced on Friday that it had launched an investigation against Mr Yanukovych and his son Aleksander for "aggravated money laundering".

Austria also said it had frozen the assets of 18 Ukrainians suspected of violating human rights and involvement in corruption. It did not give any names.

Crimea - where ethnic Russians are in a majority - was transferred from Russia to Ukraine in 1954.

Ethnic Ukrainians loyal to Kiev and Muslim Tatars - whose animosity towards Russia stretches back to Stalin's deportations during World War Two - have formed an alliance to oppose any move back towards Moscow.

Russia, along with the US, UK and France, pledged to uphold the territorial integrity of Ukraine in a memorandum signed in 1994.

I thought that Russia's denial was quite specific, it could almost be "No no our naval troops. Our spec ops units though...."

**Commissar-Danno**

So this raises up another question. What about the national military units in the East of Ukraine? I understand that the officers there for the most part won't do anything to stop the Russians but what about afterwards? Will they allow the soldiers who agree ideology with the western Ukraine in the east to be purged or allowed to leave? Will these military units be integrated with the Russians or turned into the Eastern Nat-Guard like they sorta were before the invasion? Or will they just be simply disbanded?

**Breotan**

Putin had better check himself before Obama talks tough some more.

**Dreadclaw69**

Obama is due to give a statement on Ukraine shortly.

**Iron_Captain**

Russia has confirmed that its soldiers are operating in Crimea.
Didn't I tell you?

Those uniforms were an obvious giveaway.

Dreadclaw69 wrote:
Obama is due to give a statement on Ukraine shortly.

And he didn't really say anything. Just the usual vague words. How typical...

**whembly**

The Obama admin knows how to "nuance" things eh?

Says to something of the effect that Russian troops rolling into Ukraine an “uncontested arrival,” not an “invasion”…

Remember that dummy Romney saying that Russian is the US's number one geopolitical foe? Yeah... about that...