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Hello all,

I have worked through a spreadsheet to give the chance of hitting and expected casualties from a particular attack.

This can be useful for math hammering your chances with certain builds against certain expected foes.

For example, the results from the infantry page, show me if I have a charge attack from 10 Howling Banshees that have been fortuned against standard marines that have been doomed, the result breakdown would be:

Shuriken pistols:
Expected wound % 22.2%
Expected number of wounds 2.2

(marines down to 8)

With power weapon:
Expected wound % 27.8%
Expected number of wounds 8.3

(marines wiped out)

In the same manner, I can work out the chance for complex actions against vehicles.

For example, if we have 10 Fortuned Eldar Pathfinders (rend on 5+) who are attacking the side of a Rhino (AV11), the breakdown of results would look like:

As half of the hits will be AP1, we need to split out the results with the combined results as:

Chance of glancing hit 12.3%
Chance of penetrating hit 6.2%


Breakdown of damage Expected results
Shaken 4.1% 0.41
Stunned 3.1% 0.31
Damaged - Weapon destroyed 3.1% 0.31
Damaged - immobilised 3.1% 0.31
Destroyed - Wrecked 3.1% 0.31
Destroyed - Explodes! 2.1% 0.21

Total chance/hits expected: 18.5% 1.85

So from above, we can see that pathfinders firing at the side armour of a Rhino have roughly a 50% chance of destroying it - slightly more than that when you add in the weapon destroyed and immobilised chances. Overall, on average there should be nearly 2 actual hits of some kind against a Rhino from a group of 10 Pathfinders in this scenario.

A group of just 5 (non-fortuned) Firedragons however with the same Rhino within 12" (not within 6") would end up with the following:

Chance of glancing hit 14.8%
Chance of penetrating hit 44.4%


Breakdown of damage Expected results
Shaken 4.9% 0.2
Stunned 9.9% 0.5
Damaged - Weapon destroyed 9.9% 0.5
Damaged - immobilised 9.9% 0.5
Destroyed - Wrecked 9.9% 0.5
Destroyed - Explodes! 14.8% 0.7

Total chance/hits expected: 59.3% 3.0

So - they would be nearly twice as likely to cause damage and over twice as likely to destroy the Rhino.

I find it useful in "what if" stuff.

LOL - obviously no math fans!

;-)

I count to 6. No in betweens. I don't even do that counting that well... I bow before your superior counting-ness...

Thats pretty cool Tallmantim, I'm going to have to try it in my next match in 2 weeks.. hehe Thanks for the awesome spreadsheet.

Blaznak wrote:I count to 6. No in betweens. I don't even do that counting that well... I bow before your superior counting-ness...

LOL

They call me the count because I love to count!

s2ua7 wrote:Thats pretty cool Tallmantim, I'm going to have to try it in my next match in 2 weeks.. hehe Thanks for the awesome spreadsheet.

Cool - hope it's of use...

Bah, Math-hammer is no fun.

Gutteridge wrote:Bah, Math-hammer is no fun.

In that case, maybe Fulgrim has only 990 sons? Doesn't quite have the same ring to it!

Fulgrim fathered the Emperor's Children, it was Magnus who had one thousand sons.

DarkHound wrote:Fulgrim fathered the Emperor's Children, it was Magnus who had one thousand sons.

LOL

You see? I was always better at math than English!

That's not English, that's history.

Yeah, I did that when I started eldar but after a while you just know what to do in situations for the best chance. Though knowing the exact %s helps with calculating risks.

POWER IN THE DICE BROTHERS that is the only way for a answer because its unpredictable

Just thought I would add in my modified version of a spreadsheet found on Librarium-Online (IIRC) =] Hope this helps =]

Thanks for the math!