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It would be weird if it turned out to be part of a plot to start a war between America and Iran which would eventually culminate in a new World War... all orchastrated by the Swiss...
Yeah that would be odd...

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Orlanth wrote:Besides Obama is not to be trusted, not by us anyway.

Not by us either, tbh.

I find this extremely unconvincing, especially given Iran's habit of using photoshop to outright lie about military events.

Even if true, we should reply "Sorry, we were trying to figure out where the weapons you're shipping into Iraq and Afghanistan were coming from."

text removed by Moderation team. 
   
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United States

LordofHats wrote:They supply terrorist organizations, fund insurgent operations, and destabilize the whole the region.


Wait, are we talking about the United States?

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For a country that produced the self-proclaimed legend that is Mattrym you Brits sure are whinning a lot about doing what he repeatedly suggests he would love to do...


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CT GAMER wrote:For a country that produced the self-proclaimed legend that is Mattrym you Brits sure are whinning a lot about doing what he repeatedly suggests he would love to do...


Shoot down a US UAV?
I haven't seen him express that particular ambition...

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dogma wrote:
LordofHats wrote:They supply terrorist organizations, fund insurgent operations, and destabilize the whole the region.


Wait, are we talking about the United States?





   
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Adrift within the vortex of my imagination.

LordofHats wrote:
Iraq complied, we know how that turned out.


Iraq was a different situation. They got called out for invading Kuwait for first time and we told them to cease there. If anything, the second invasion where we thought they still had WMD's should have told Iran 'we will invade you' not the opposite.



Kuwait was done and dusted in 91. Also Bush/Blair didn't think they still had WMD, they knew they didnt, but claimed they did anyway.

LordofHats wrote:
North Korea hasn't, and got away with it.

North Korea is shielded by proximity to China (and I'm sure Iran isn't so dumb as to not know that). The idea that China or Russia care about Iran's arms development is meaningless. The US could do a turn around, be for Iran with nukes, and China and Russia would decry the US as destabilizing the Middle East and proliferating WMD. I don't care what Russia or China vote for in the UNSC. They usual just vote the opposite of what the US wants for no other reason than the US wants it. It's international posturing.


Iran is also shielded by China. Did you notice when Iran declared their weapons program? The same week in 2005 that Bush declared the US 'right' to attack nations building WMD without warning. This was seen as a dangerous challenge which China and Russia responded to indirectly, Iran is not as stupid as it is made out to be, practically all the scientists involved are from the former Soviet Union and it appears a lost of the materiel comes from China. They wouldnt do what they did especially then without backup.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2011/12/05 04:24:17


n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.

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United States

Orlanth wrote:Also Bush/Blair didn't think they still had WMD, they knew they didnt, but claimed they did anyway.


Never waste a good crisis.

Orlanth wrote:
Iran is not as stupid as it is made out to be, practically all the scientists involved are from the former Soviet Union and it appears a lost of the materiel comes from China. They wouldnt do what they did especially then without backup.


Smartest thing you've ever said.

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USA

Orlanth wrote:[Iran is also shielded by China.


I was unaware Iran and China shared a border. North Korea gets saved because China is literally right there. That's not so with Iran.

   
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Adrift within the vortex of my imagination.

LordofHats wrote:
Orlanth wrote:[Iran is also shielded by China.


I was unaware Iran and China shared a border. North Korea gets saved because China is literally right there. That's not so with Iran.


It doesn't have a direct border with the US either.

What it does have is direct access to Russia via the Caspian and is connected to China via one country, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

In either case its a direct flight from China. You want to shoot down Chinese heavy transport aircraft over Pakistan and Afghanistan? I hope not.

n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.

It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion. By the juice of the brew my thoughts aquire speed, my mind becomes strained, the strain becomes a warning. It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion. 
   
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USA

Orlanth wrote:It doesn't have a direct border with the US either.

What it does have is direct access to Russia via the Caspian and is connected to China via one country, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

In either case its a direct flight from China. You want to shoot down Chinese heavy transport aircraft over Pakistan and Afghanistan? I hope not.


You really don't comprehend the difference between being right next door and being a few hours away?

That's not even talking about the fallout of the Korean War. There's a reason North Korea gets away with it and its because of China. There's a reason Iran doesn't and it's because no one worries about anyone helping Iran if it gets attacked.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2011/12/05 06:10:21


   
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LordofHats wrote:There's a reason Iran doesn't and it's because no one worries about anyone helping Iran if it gets attacked.


Iran doesn't really need help. Its huge, mountainous, and possessed of a strong historical culture. Not really invasion fodder.

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dogma wrote:
LordofHats wrote:There's a reason Iran doesn't and it's because no one worries about anyone helping Iran if it gets attacked.


Iran doesn't really need help. Its huge, mountainous, and possessed of a strong historical culture. Not really invasion fodder.


They've been invaded plenty of times. Not as many times as say, Greece, but plenty. All those things are somewhat irrelevant to the matter of Iran's international support, which is really just for show. They have no sphere of influence. No allies in the region they can rely on, and China and Russia aren't going to do anything but talk.

   
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What country in the world is capable (political will is a component of capability) of invading, occupying, and altering the government of Iran?

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purplefood wrote:
CT GAMER wrote:For a country that produced the self-proclaimed legend that is Mattrym you Brits sure are whinning a lot about doing what he repeatedly suggests he would love to do...


Kill everyone who owns a turban? Oh yeah good point.

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Melissia wrote:They've also threatened to bomb Turkey too.


No thats a mistranslation. The original Farsi said they threatened to bomb us with turkeys. Gobble gobble!

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ShumaGorath wrote:
Ketara wrote:
Orlanth wrote:On top of that Israel completely and blatantly ignores international arms development limitations. They have also threatened to use nukes, which is something Iran has yet to say.


When was that? Israel has never even officially admitted to possessing nukes, let alone threatening to use them on anyone.


Iran has also threatened to wipe israel off the face of the earth. Not with nukes as they "don't have them", but the sentiment is fairly clear.



Honestly, this sounds like a propaganda piece to me. Iran doesn't have something other then dumbfire anti air that can shoot down a modern stealth aircraft, and they'd have to see or find it first. Given the current drone track record the thing could of just fallen out of the sky on it's own accord though. Irans government is nothing if not opportunistic in it's effort to keep the populace xenophobic and anti western.


So I just saw this on msn, a drone did crash in Iran, US says no indication that it was shot down, but we say that we lost control of it in Afghanistan, it flew into Iran where it crashed or possibly shot down..who knows
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45541622/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/t/us-no-indication-drone-iran-was-shot-down/#.TtzBd2OIm0s

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LordofHats wrote:


That's not even talking about the fallout of the Korean War. There's a reason North Korea gets away with it and its because of China. There's a reason Iran doesn't and it's because no one worries about anyone helping Iran if it gets attacked.


Well Iran are getting away with it. The covert attacks are mostly by Israel in all likelihood, Israel not caring too much about North Korea. Other than that western responses to both nations programs have been near identical.
It is very unlikely the US will invade or launch a major attack despite petitions for such by Israel.

Meanwhile China and Russia will do what they can to cover for the Iranians. I do not think China wants Iran to have the bomb as much as place the US in a position where to get rid of an extant Iranian bomb it will need to stop vetoing resolutions against Israel for a while. Its a ploy with a reasonable chance of working, Israel sees this coming and are not happy and therefore are intent on taking as much action as they can now. I do not think Iran will try to nuke Israel they are not that dumb, no matter what the propaganda says.

n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.

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But someone stealing it from Iran and detonating it somewhere else, I can see that happening given the nation's corruption.

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(THIS SPACE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK)

Huffy wrote:
ShumaGorath wrote:
Ketara wrote:
Orlanth wrote:On top of that Israel completely and blatantly ignores international arms development limitations. They have also threatened to use nukes, which is something Iran has yet to say.


When was that? Israel has never even officially admitted to possessing nukes, let alone threatening to use them on anyone.


Iran has also threatened to wipe israel off the face of the earth. Not with nukes as they "don't have them", but the sentiment is fairly clear.



Honestly, this sounds like a propaganda piece to me. Iran doesn't have something other then dumbfire anti air that can shoot down a modern stealth aircraft, and they'd have to see or find it first. Given the current drone track record the thing could of just fallen out of the sky on it's own accord though. Irans government is nothing if not opportunistic in it's effort to keep the populace xenophobic and anti western.


So I just saw this on msn, a drone did crash in Iran, US says no indication that it was shot down, but we say that we lost control of it in Afghanistan, it flew into Iran where it crashed or possibly shot down..who knows
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45541622/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/t/us-no-indication-drone-iran-was-shot-down/#.TtzBd2OIm0s


We are so fething bad at keeping those things in the sky.

----------------

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Melissia wrote:But someone stealing it from Iran and detonating it somewhere else, I can see that happening given the nation's corruption.


Or Iran giving it to someone. It all depends on the mood in the country. Iran has a lot of potential to cause a lot of chaos in future.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2011/12/05 16:31:04


   
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Adrift within the vortex of my imagination.

You are being hysterical.

Nukes are easily trackable, giving a nuke away is as dangerous to Iran as launching it themselves. Countries like Iran and North Korea need nukes as bargaining chips, not for trade or to build suitcase bombs.

n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.

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Imagination land

I was reading about this in college and found various sources from different countries saying it either crashed/malfunctioned by itself, was hacked by the Iranians or else shot down when it violated Iranian air space.

Either way, it looks like it was a power play by the Americans. They sent the spy plane into Iranian air space, and are now acting like it was Irans fault for defending their own privacy.

I don't blame the Iranians for shooting it down, I blame the Americans who sent it there in the first place. Looks to me like America and Iran are going to be going toe to toe soon enough.

With the increase in the budget for defense and being slowly turned into a police state, it looks like America knows this too.
   
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Orlanth wrote:You are being hysterical.


I think you're making me out to be more invested than I am. I'm talking about possibilities.

Nukes are easily trackable, giving a nuke away is as dangerous to Iran as launching it themselves. Countries like Iran and North Korea need nukes as bargaining chips, not for trade or to build suitcase bombs.


There are factions within Iran who don't really care. Iran's become a safe harbor for extremist groups, and the Republican guard is a pretty extreme and corrupt group with its own internal factions. Iran's intent isn't necessarily theirs. That's another difference between NK and Iran. NK is fairly controlled. Iran's governmental power is deeply fractured among several groups.

   
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Ketara wrote:There will be conflict between either the US and Iran, or Israel and Iran within the next year. The signs are all there.


I think the most likely scenario is another Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. So far Iran has been keen to just let the air strikes and cyber attacks slide, so a war will only happen if they decide to change their mind about how they react. If a war does start, I think the chances of US intervention goes up by a lot. Not really sure how Iran would retaliate though. Retaliation airstrikes?

   
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Imagination land

Melissia wrote:But someone stealing it from Iran and detonating it somewhere else, I can see that happening given the nation's corruption.


There has been 92 cases of Nukes being lost at sea since 1945, I don't know how many were recovered. The US lists 11 nukes being lost and never recovered. Iran isn't the only place to get nukes.
   
 
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