Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

 Peregrine wrote:

 megatrons2nd wrote:
I just have bad luck in general.

No you don't. You have the same luck as everyone else, you just have the "I am unlucky" label for yourself and therefore confirmation bias in favor of remembering all the "unlucky" stuff while forgetting the rest. There is no such thing as people having better or worse luck, period. If there were then casinos wouldn't be an obscenely profitable business.

Did you even read my full post? I have a record of my rolls that I have kept. Including my tournament on Thursday. The "Confirmation Bias" is being confirmed every time I roll. Sure, I get average rolls, but so far the "average rolls" that I have had are in the minority, and the below average rolls are where the average rolls should be. As mentioned before, I got my first ever all hit 5 dice roll Thursday, couple with 9 total flubs for attack and defense combined. I got 3 total all success rolls. I also pulled a way above average number of Direct Hits cards for Critical Damage throughout the tournament.

 megatrons2nd wrote:
Did you even read my full post?

Of course I did, you're simply wrong. There are two options here:

1) You have bad luck, in direct contradiction to our understanding of how probability works, an understanding that is overwhelmingly reinforced everywhere else in life. This is literally the kind of revolutionary event where you start talking about Nobel prizes for proving it.

or

2) You have confirmation bias and remember the events where you have bad luck and forget the times where you don't. Your luck over time is the same average that everyone else has.

I think it's pretty obvious that the second option must be true, no matter what you have to say.

 Peregrine wrote:

 megatrons2nd wrote:
Did you even read my full post?

Of course I did, you're simply wrong. There are two options here:

1) You have bad luck, in direct contradiction to our understanding of how probability works, an understanding that is overwhelmingly reinforced everywhere else in life. This is literally the kind of revolutionary event where you start talking about Nobel prizes for proving it.

or

2) You have confirmation bias and remember the events where you have bad luck and forget the times where you don't. Your luck over time is the same average that everyone else has.

I think it's pretty obvious that the second option must be true, no matter what you have to say.

Except it is WRITTEN down, and confirmed by my opponents. The last good game where my dice were average or better was in 1993, D&D Korea, spent 6 months playing, and my character rolled a large amount of natural 20's at critical moments of a battle. By your statement, the averages should be swinging my way anytime now. So far I am behind "average" by a large margin. There was a time when I was 10 or so, I won like 6 free Starburst packs, in a row, in a packaging label thing from that time frame, never won the bike.

With each example you give, you're reinforcing the fact that confirmation bias seems firmly in place. Those last few bits give us the sub-specialty of hot hands fallacy, nothing more.

I'd be curious to see that spreasheet, your sample size and methodology.

 megatrons2nd wrote:
Except it is WRITTEN down, and confirmed by my opponents. The last good game where my dice were average or better was in 1993, D&D Korea, spent 6 months playing, and my character rolled a large amount of natural 20's at critical moments of a battle. By your statement, the averages should be swinging my way anytime now. So far I am behind "average" by a large margin. There was a time when I was 10 or so, I won like 6 free Starburst packs, in a row, in a packaging label thing from that time frame, never won the bike.

Then go win your Nobel prize by overturning our entire understanding of probability, physics, etc.