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 Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
France has seen a lot of terror attacks these past 2 years and is likely to suffer them again.

And even more car accidents!

True, I'd be more worried about car accidents or being struck by lighting in France as opposed to being attacked by terrorists, but the previous poster's comments seemed to suggest that the Turkey situation and its proximity to Greece, made Greece a more risky place to visit, as opposed to at, France.

I'm arguing that it's not the case.

France is a great country to visit and I would encourage anybody to do so.

konst80hummel wrote:
Fair enough, have fun and remember us in the Eastern Mediteranean when you drink those Bordeaux wines. (And do visit Carcassone in the south and Mont Saint Michell in the North. Both unreal places.)

I have a solution, request annexation by the USA, or more particularly, Texas. Safety, TexMex and guns!

Alternatively, join the UK. You'll have to work on your accent a bit.

Mmmm, safety & guns are not a very stable combination IMO, but let's not go there now.

Texmex, though, is reason enough by itself.

You could merge with China. They get strategic ports and yogurt. You get General Chao's chicken and awesome gold medal winning in the Olympics.

Mind, we have already sold them half our ports...

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
True, I'd be more worried about car accidents or being struck by lighting in France as opposed to being attacked by terrorists, but the previous poster's comments seemed to suggest that the Turkey situation and its proximity to Greece, made Greece a more risky place to visit, as opposed to at, France.

I'm arguing that it's not the case.

France is a great country to visit and I would encourage anybody to do so.

What happens when it is a terrorist driving the vehicle?

konst80hummel wrote:
As Greeks living next door we 're fethed either way.
Whenever Turkey experiences internal problems they export them by accusing foreigners or other nationalities living in Turkey. See the Armenian Genocide and the Greek Pogroms in Istanbul in '54. Moreover when they feel they need to ramp up nationalism they start talking about disputed zones and invalid treaties and doing flyovers of Greek isles.
With him next door I may have to look for my conscription papers.

I'd imagine Cyprus is absolutely thrilled.

 Co'tor Shas wrote:

konst80hummel wrote:
As Greeks living next door we 're fethed either way.
Whenever Turkey experiences internal problems they export them by accusing foreigners or other nationalities living in Turkey. See the Armenian Genocide and the Greek Pogroms in Istanbul in '54. Moreover when they feel they need to ramp up nationalism they start talking about disputed zones and invalid treaties and doing flyovers of Greek isles.
With him next door I may have to look for my conscription papers.

I'd imagine Cyprus is absolutely thrilled.

Along with the British Army. They still have a peace keeping force deployed there. I'm sure it isn't looking as cozy of an assignment as it used to be.

 Dreadclaw69 wrote:

 Co'tor Shas wrote:

konst80hummel wrote:
As Greeks living next door we 're fethed either way.
Whenever Turkey experiences internal problems they export them by accusing foreigners or other nationalities living in Turkey. See the Armenian Genocide and the Greek Pogroms in Istanbul in '54. Moreover when they feel they need to ramp up nationalism they start talking about disputed zones and invalid treaties and doing flyovers of Greek isles.
With him next door I may have to look for my conscription papers.

I'd imagine Cyprus is absolutely thrilled.

Along with the British Army. They still have a peace keeping force deployed there. I'm sure it isn't looking as cozy of an assignment as it used to be.

UK is the peace keeping barrier.
It was mainly before now just a med base that's quiet as that suplied ships and gave Nato air units over near Libya etc. It's mostly a air base that covers that part of the med. Yes a easy guard duty in Mediterranean sun got a whole lot more tense.

Yes. And if the EU does some gak and forces us to withdraw worst case because of Brexit.
That would be very bad.

...

Lastly I would probably not go to Greece but that was mostly because strikes etc. If they steaded Down and I could be sure my plane could land and I could say get a ferry to a island to visit, go to Athens safely etc id be fine.

France is more dangerous of terror right now!

Though if I was US I would consider what assets I kept at airbase in Turkey.
Ie advanced systems or nukes.

 welshhoppo wrote:
So whilst people were concerned that Trump was secretly Hitler. Erdogan has actually done it while our attention was elsewhere.

I am pretty sure many people were watching, and took notes.

More of this to come!

 Dreadclaw69 wrote:

 Co'tor Shas wrote:

konst80hummel wrote:
As Greeks living next door we 're fethed either way.
Whenever Turkey experiences internal problems they export them by accusing foreigners or other nationalities living in Turkey. See the Armenian Genocide and the Greek Pogroms in Istanbul in '54. Moreover when they feel they need to ramp up nationalism they start talking about disputed zones and invalid treaties and doing flyovers of Greek isles.
With him next door I may have to look for my conscription papers.

I'd imagine Cyprus is absolutely thrilled.

Along with the British Army. They still have a peace keeping force deployed there. I'm sure it isn't looking as cozy of an assignment as it used to be.

The British Army didn't really intervene during the last invasion because it wasn't in their interest and neither did NATO do much to reign in Turkey. If push ever comes to shove I can see Turkey just going up and capturing the peacekeepers while rolling over the rest of the island. Yeah the world can get a bit outraged like last time, but as long as none of the UN force actually gets killed I don't see much happening. Sadly keeping Turkey friendly is worth more than Cyprus is. Northern Cyprus is just the historical case for Russia and Crimea.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 jhe90 wrote:

 Dreadclaw69 wrote:

 Co'tor Shas wrote:

konst80hummel wrote:
As Greeks living next door we 're fethed either way.
Whenever Turkey experiences internal problems they export them by accusing foreigners or other nationalities living in Turkey. See the Armenian Genocide and the Greek Pogroms in Istanbul in '54. Moreover when they feel they need to ramp up nationalism they start talking about disputed zones and invalid treaties and doing flyovers of Greek isles.
With him next door I may have to look for my conscription papers.

I'd imagine Cyprus is absolutely thrilled.

Along with the British Army. They still have a peace keeping force deployed there. I'm sure it isn't looking as cozy of an assignment as it used to be.

UK is the peace keeping barrier.
It was mainly before now just a med base that's quiet as that suplied ships and gave Nato air units over near Libya etc. It's mostly a air base that covers that part of the med. Yes a easy guard duty in Mediterranean sun got a whole lot more tense.

Yes. And if the EU does some gak and forces us to withdraw worst case because of Brexit.
That would be very bad.

...

Lastly I would probably not go to Greece but that was mostly because strikes etc. If they steaded Down and I could be sure my plane could land and I could say get a ferry to a island to visit, go to Athens safely etc id be fine.

France is more dangerous of terror right now!

Though if I was US I would consider what assets I kept at airbase in Turkey.
Ie advanced systems or nukes.

The UK isn't exactly the peacekeeping barrier, more like the neutral zone on the island. Turkey won't need to attack it, just go around it like last time.
Furthermore its unlikely the EU can force the British bases to be closed, as the agreements were made long before the EU even let Cyprus join. Now the Cypriots not liking the bases is another matter entirely, as they take up a significant chunk of the island.

On US forces in the Incirlik base, I don't think they need to worry about those. Being part of NATO and team USA is way to advantageous to Erdogan, as it allows him to get away with all kinds of gak because hes still an important ally, he won't jeopardize this convenient shield as its not in his interest to do so. Pressure him in NATO, maybe Erdogan might get friendlier with Putin, not really something in US interest and Erdogan knows he can use this.

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

The British Army didn't really intervene during the last invasion because it wasn't in their interest and neither did NATO do much to reign in Turkey.

The British did have a plan to oppose the Turkish landings, but NATO (read US) told them to stand down.

Turkey was a very valuable asset during the cold war so they just slapped an arms embargo and got done for it.

Plus it was all started by a Greek Junta sponsored coup in Cyprus so they had the perfect excuse.

Shame since all three countries are lovely places to visit and work with.

jouso wrote:

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

The British Army didn't really intervene during the last invasion because it wasn't in their interest and neither did NATO do much to reign in Turkey.

The British did have a plan to oppose the Turkish landings, but NATO (read US) told them to stand down.

Turkey was a very valuable asset during the cold war so they just slapped an arms embargo and got done for it.

Plus it was all started by a Greek Junta sponsored coup in Cyprus so they had the perfect excuse.

Shame since all three countries are lovely places to visit and work with.

Yes, because it wasn't necessarily in their interest. I should have specified that the UK was thinking about intervening as Cyprus was an old colony and they wanted to help. But as long as Turkey didn't go for their bases there weren't really any British political interest there that needed to be defended. This is why the US was able to pressure them out of it, there is no reason to think that they will do so now.

Also the Greek Junta (not like Turkey was or is so democratic) excuse is very much in favour of Turkey. The majority of Cyprus (as the split is almost 80-90% Greek to Turkish) wanted to be unified with Greece, something they already wanted in the time under British rule. The UK actively fought against this movement in a long period of violence (compare this to Israel, where they not only managed to 'force' the British out but also got their own state at the cost of another). Turkey's invasion was purely a response to the geopolitical reality of having an outpost of its hated enemy Greece on its southern flank. If anything all these events were set in motion when the UK decided to annex Cyprus after WWI instead of giving them the right to self determination. The fact that they imported so many settlers shows Turkey's true motivations. Turkey always opposed unification with Greece even before the coup and would have never allowed it.

Why do people think the alternative to a dictator in Turkey is political collapse? Half the population (and the younger, better educated, more urbane, more secular and international half) are against Erdogan. The current parliamentary system worked fine for decades and doesn't seem to need change.

Democracy was never strong in Turkey. The military occasionally had to implement a coup to restore the secular government/dictatorship got out of hand. However, that has gone now.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Why do people think the alternative to a dictator in Turkey is political collapse? Half the population (and the younger, better educated, more urbane, more secular and international half) are against Erdogan. The current parliamentary system worked fine for decades and doesn't seem to need change.

Before Erdogan the military even kept a firm hand on the coutry to ensure no collapse would take place. Now however with Erdogan in power all the ideas of how the country would function without him become purely academic. Just to add my view, Turkey would collapse without Erdogan. Not because its unstable but because he is so power hungry with such a crazy supporter base that I can't see a way in which he gets removed peacefully or relatively peacefully. Hes already ensured hes not going to have serious opposition and with him pushing for the death penalty its going to get even worse for opponents. I fear that if he stays in power for a decade or more he will have damaged the state to such an extent it wont be able to properly function anymore. As everyone is basically a puppet of him without serious opposition, unless they already fled by now and weren't caught in the coup purges.

Of course this is just one possibility, but the longer he stays in power the less resilient the state institutions become.

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

jouso wrote:

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

The British Army didn't really intervene during the last invasion because it wasn't in their interest and neither did NATO do much to reign in Turkey.

The British did have a plan to oppose the Turkish landings, but NATO (read US) told them to stand down.

Turkey was a very valuable asset during the cold war so they just slapped an arms embargo and got done for it.

Plus it was all started by a Greek Junta sponsored coup in Cyprus so they had the perfect excuse.

Shame since all three countries are lovely places to visit and work with.

Yes, because it wasn't necessarily in their interest. I should have specified that the UK was thinking about intervening as Cyprus was an old colony and they wanted to help. But as long as Turkey didn't go for their bases there weren't really any British political interest there that needed to be defended. This is why the US was able to pressure them out of it, there is no reason to think that they will do so now.

Also the Greek Junta (not like Turkey was or is so democratic) excuse is very much in favour of Turkey. The majority of Cyprus (as the split is almost 80-90% Greek to Turkish) wanted to be unified with Greece, something they already wanted in the time under British rule.

Something the British exploited by pitting one group against the other (for example instituting a heavily Turkish police force when the Greek Cypriots were getting restless)

There was no easy solution as Greek/Turkish stability post Independence was only achieved through massive population swaps and Cyprus was only delayed by British rule.

Both countries have overlapping claims and both countries felt cheated (modern Turkey losing so many former Ottoman territories, modern Greece losing former Greek majority cities in Asia minor)

The overlordship of independent Cyprus with three guaranteeing powers was as good as it could have been at the time it was signed.

Again, it was a Greek-sponsored coup what stirred the wasp nest, probably underestimating Turkish willingness to act their part of the treaty and overestimating the UK ability or willingness to use force if necessary. Ultimately it brought the Greek govt demise as well.

Cyprus will need watching closely now.

jouso wrote:

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

jouso wrote:

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

The British Army didn't really intervene during the last invasion because it wasn't in their interest and neither did NATO do much to reign in Turkey.

The British did have a plan to oppose the Turkish landings, but NATO (read US) told them to stand down.

Turkey was a very valuable asset during the cold war so they just slapped an arms embargo and got done for it.

Plus it was all started by a Greek Junta sponsored coup in Cyprus so they had the perfect excuse.

Shame since all three countries are lovely places to visit and work with.

Yes, because it wasn't necessarily in their interest. I should have specified that the UK was thinking about intervening as Cyprus was an old colony and they wanted to help. But as long as Turkey didn't go for their bases there weren't really any British political interest there that needed to be defended. This is why the US was able to pressure them out of it, there is no reason to think that they will do so now.

Also the Greek Junta (not like Turkey was or is so democratic) excuse is very much in favour of Turkey. The majority of Cyprus (as the split is almost 80-90% Greek to Turkish) wanted to be unified with Greece, something they already wanted in the time under British rule.

Something the British exploited by pitting one group against the other (for example instituting a heavily Turkish police force when the Greek Cypriots were getting restless)

There was no easy solution as Greek/Turkish stability post Independence was only achieved through massive population swaps and Cyprus was only delayed by British rule.

Both countries have overlapping claims and both countries felt cheated (modern Turkey losing so many former Ottoman territories, modern Greece losing former Greek majority cities in Asia minor)

The overlordship of independent Cyprus with three guaranteeing powers was as good as it could have been at the time it was signed.

Again, it was a Greek-sponsored coup what stirred the wasp nest, probably underestimating Turkish willingness to act their part of the treaty and overestimating the UK ability or willingness to use force if necessary. Ultimately it brought the Greek govt demise as well.

The British also continually refused to allow referenda on the idea of unification with Greece and gave Turkish Cypriots a lop sided advantage in the state apparatus specifically to suppress the Greek majority. When the British then made Cyprus independent they also ensured that Cyprus was becoming divided in Greek and Turkish communities legally speaking. Even before the Greek coup the Turkish army already controlled significant parts of the island unofficially however. Both sides were responsible for some vile things and conflict. but in the end less than 20% of the population blocked 80% of the path they wanted to chose for there country, as well as wanting a significant (and some would say disproportionate) part of the island to go to Turkey if there ever was a petition. The independence movement against the British was strongly tied to the desire to unite with Greece. The idea that Turkey felt cheated is of course the decades of victim hood that Turkish nationalism promoted. What they lost weren't exactly ethnically Turkish territories and they made sure with some very serious ethnic cleansing that some areas in modern Turkey became ethnically Turkish. The majority of the Cypriot population felt and still feels they got the short end of the stick from the international community and its hard to blame them for thinking that.

The Greek sponsored coup formed the catalyst for the invasion, but it did in no way stir the hornets nest. The treaty of 1960 basically handcuffed Cyprus to a non-solution the majority of the population wasn't happy with. The Greek coup was the timer finally running out on a bomb placed 14 years previously. Turkey would have always taken these actions, just as the Cypriot state after independence always had envisioned the way forward to be unification, this was unavoidable, but terrible non the less and Turkey has been proven to have been completely in the wrong with malicious intentions from the start instead of just honoring the 1960 treaty, reinstalling government and leaving.

Imagine an independent Scotland wanting to join the EU and then having England invade just because 20% of the ethnically English population in Scotland voted for Brexit.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Update on the referendum, international criticism is in, as always Erdogan seems to be missing the Irony of telling an independent election watchdog criticizing him to "know your place".
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39622335 Relevant part:

Turkey referendum: Erdogan dismisses criticism by monitors

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has rejected criticism by monitors who say the referendum campaign fell short of international standards.
"Know your place," he said, adding that he did not accept the comments. The observers said Mr Erdogan had been favoured by an "unequal" campaign.
The narrow vote was ruled valid by Turkey's electoral body, despite claims of irregularities by the opposition.
Meanwhile, the country has extended the state of emergency for three months.
The measure, introduced after a failed coup last July, was set to expire in two days.
The decision comes the day after Mr Erdogan's push for an executive presidency succeeded with 51.4% voting for it.

Monitors: 'Unlevel playing field'

Despite saying that the voting day was "well administered", the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the Council of Europe criticised the campaign, saying:
It was an "unlevel playing field" and the two sides of the campaign "did not have equal opportunities".
It was unbalanced due to the active involvement of the president and several senior officials.
It was tarnished by a number of officials equating No supporters with terrorist sympathisers.
State resources were misused.
Under the state of emergency, essential fundamental freedoms were curtailed.
Despite some measures, the legal framework remained inadequate for a genuinely democratic referendum.

"In general, the referendum did not live up to Council of Europe standards," said Cezar Florin Preda, head of the Council of Europe delegation.
The council is a pan-European human rights body of which Turkey is a member.
The monitors also criticised a late change by electoral officials that allowed voting papers without official stamps to be counted. They said this move "removed an important safeguard and were contested by the opposition.
But the head of Turkey's electoral body, Sadi Guven, said the unstamped ballot papers had been produced by the High Electoral Board and were valid. He said a similar procedure had been used in past elections.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
True, I'd be more worried about car accidents or being struck by lighting in France as opposed to being attacked by terrorists, but the previous poster's comments seemed to suggest that the Turkey situation and its proximity to Greece, made Greece a more risky place to visit, as opposed to at, France.

I'm arguing that it's not the case.

Then we are in agreement. He would be more at risk of a car accident in Greece than an attack from Turkey too .

 Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
True, I'd be more worried about car accidents or being struck by lighting in France as opposed to being attacked by terrorists, but the previous poster's comments seemed to suggest that the Turkey situation and its proximity to Greece, made Greece a more risky place to visit, as opposed to at, France.

I'm arguing that it's not the case.

Then we are in agreement. He would be more at risk of a car accident in Greece than an attack from Turkey too .

Greece is safe. If feel safe going to Greece.

Turkey. Different story.

 Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
France has seen a lot of terror attacks these past 2 years and is likely to suffer them again.

And even more car accidents!

And car accidents caused by terrorists!

 Frazzled wrote:
Democracy was never strong in Turkey. The military occasionally had to implement a coup to restore the secular government/dictatorship got out of hand. However, that has gone now.

It's almost like Erdogan learned from the Muslim Brotherhood's mistakes in Egypt. Had the Brotherhood cleared out the military then pushed for a radical transformation of the civilian government like Erdogan did, they might have been successful.

 Iron_Captain wrote:
Did anyone not expect Erdogan to win?

Not after the post-coup attempt purge.

What's the process for kicking Turkey out of NATO?

At this point, I'd prefer to have Putin occupy Turkey. It'd be less corrupt and safer for the average Turk.

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

 Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
France has seen a lot of terror attacks these past 2 years and is likely to suffer them again.

And even more car accidents!

And car accidents caused by terrorists!

If they are voluntary, do they still count as accidents?
[edit]Also, less by definition [/edit]

 Breotan wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:
Democracy was never strong in Turkey. The military occasionally had to implement a coup to restore the secular government/dictatorship got out of hand. However, that has gone now.

It's almost like Erdogan learned from the Muslim Brotherhood's mistakes in Egypt. Had the Brotherhood cleared out the military then pushed for a radical transformation of the civilian government like Erdogan did, they might have been successful.

And previous military interventions to preserve democracy in Turkey as mentioned by Frazz, but yeah.

Well... Trump called to congratulates Erdogan...

This is simply a power grab at the expense of democracy.

The only thing I can think of why Trump is buttering up Erdogan is realpolitik... maintaining good relations with the leader of a nation who still has a major role to play in both the war on ISIS, keeping a lid on the Syrian refugee crisis and maintaning access to the all-important Incirlik Air Base.

Stinks to high-heavens still...

If not for Incirlik, Turkey would have zero friends. As it is, Turkey only has "friends".

Turkey has been terribly unfriendly in terms of mail for the past few months

Had two packages lost and it's not like I can claim insurance from them

 whembly wrote:
Well... Trump called to congratulates Erdogan...

This is simply a power grab at the expense of democracy.

The only thing I can think of why Trump is buttering up Erdogan is realpolitik... maintaining good relations with the leader of a nation who still has a major role to play in both the war on ISIS, keeping a lid on the Syrian refugee crisis and maintaning access to the all-important Incirlik Air Base.

Stinks to high-heavens still...

Like or not. He got a few things of value that the US needs still so Trump has to play nice with him.

Turkey has advantages others do not.