Switch Theme:

is the digital form the future of miniatures?  [RSS] Share on facebook Share on Twitter Submit to Reddit
»
Author Message
Advert


Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you:
  • No adverts like this in the forums anymore.
  • Times and dates in your local timezone.
  • Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance.
  • Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely.
  • Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net.
If you are already a member then feel free to login now.




Made in us
The Conquerer






Waiting for my shill money from Spiral Arm Studios

 Easy E wrote:
In the next generation (25 years) it will be the default method for getting physical products. Home machines will be ubiguitous and will be yet another challenge to normal retail.

Basic things like toys, home goods, small parts, etc will all be producable by the consumer on demand. It will be some sort of conglomerate spin-off like Netflixs but instead of movies you will be downloading and printing item designs like custom light switch covers, door hinges, board games, tools, custom flatware, etc.

The technology will only improve and be more ubiquitious as it removes much of the infrastructure a company needs to be successful. They will no longer need to manage materials, supply, logistics, etc. Instead, they sell the designs straight to consumers who self-print the products at home.

It is like a strange mix of Amazon, Netflix, and IKea and it is only matter of time before it is the new normal. There are too many business advantages of the model for it not to expand. Such businesses will easily compete with and stomp out normal retail since the underlying framework is so much cheaper.


This is the part that I am extremely skeptical of. Such printers would be quite expensive, prohibitively so for most people. And then you have the fact that it's not actually as convenient as it sounds.

I think you'll find it tough to convince people they should buy a $10k+ machine so they can print out "custom light switch covers, door hinges, board games, tools, custom flatware, etc." when those items are readily purchased for extremely cheap just about anywhere.

As for it being a sound business model, I am also unconvinced. Once you sell someone the file for an object, you'll never get another penny from them for that object since they'll have the file. They'll pay the same price if they make 1 object or if they make 1000. So you'll rapidly cap out your market and no longer have any reliable revenue. Only way you'll have a constant stream of cash is if it's a subscription service and you can somehow cut off people's access to print files. Which then runs into another problem. Why would I, as a consumer, pay hundreds or even thousands of $$$ a year, on top of a $10,000+ machine(which likely isn't cheap to maintain), just so I could print out crappy plastic junk? Junk that, if I need to buy it, can be purchased from ordinary stores. Or ordered online.

3D printing as the basis for a physical product market just doesn't make economic sense. Certainly not one that would replace the current markets.

Such printers might be useful in remote areas where you do not have access to the normal supply chain and need to print some parts on demand. But for your every day consumer it doesn't make sense.

A final nail in the coffin of this idea is that when your "product" is an electronic data file, it's going to be easy to pirate. So one person buys the file to print out your custom phone case, then it gets put up on the internet for anybody to yank for free. And don't say "That didn't happen to the music industry! It won't happen here!" Music doesn't have as much incentive for people to pirate as these hypothetical 3D printer files will, since purchasing the file will likely be quite expensive. It's one thing to choose between the effort to pirate a $5 music album or buy it legitimately. It's another to choose weather to pirate a $100 file to make some custom gadget. So you still have plenty of people willing to buy music, but you'll have a significantly larger portion of 3D printer customers willing to pirate expensive data files. Not to mention there will be tons of free files just available legitimately. Sure, I could pay $100 to get the file for these cool name brand flatware, or I could download an equally artistic flatware design that some designer just put up on the web for free. Or I could just design my own file, as I'm the person who bothered to buy a 3D printer I also bothered to learn how to actually design some objects of my own.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/06/16 17:12:01


Self-proclaimed evil Cat-person. Dues Ex Felines

Cato Sicarius, after force feeding Captain Ventris a copy of the Codex Astartes for having the audacity to play Deathwatch, chokes to death on his own D-baggery after finding Calgar assembling his new Eldar army.

MURICA!!! IN SPESS!!! 
   
Made in ca
Longtime Dakkanaut




Building a blood in water scent

The point is, price will come down and functionality will go up. That's how new tech progresses. We have seen it in our lifetime, with cell phones, computers, etc.

Right now we are at the early adoption stage. You are a PC user in 1975, confidently predicting computers will never get better or cheaper.

We were once so close to heaven, St. Peter came out and gave us medals; declaring us "The nicest of the damned".

“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'” 
   
Made in us
Longtime Dakkanaut






Los Angeles

 feeder wrote:
The point is, price will come down and functionality will go up. That's how new tech progresses. We have seen it in our lifetime, with cell phones, computers, etc.

Right now we are at the early adoption stage. You are a PC user in 1975, confidently predicting computers will never get better or cheaper.


Exactly.

Remember when VHS movies were around $100 retail? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
   
Made in de
Longtime Dakkanaut




feeder wrote:The point is, price will come down and functionality will go up. That's how new tech progresses. We have seen it in our lifetime, with cell phones, computers, etc.

Right now we are at the early adoption stage. You are a PC user in 1975, confidently predicting computers will never get better or cheaper.
An important point is also that one or two years ago many important early 3d printing patents expired and the industry can now build on that. If I remember correctly steam machines also got much better once certain patents expired (from here):
During the period of Watt's patents the United Kingdom added about 750 horsepower of steam engines per year. In the thirty years following Watt's patents, additional horsepower was added at a rate of more than 4,000 per year. Moreover, the fuel efficiency of steam engines changed little during the period of Watt's patent; while between 1810 and 1835 it is estimated to have increased by a factor of five.[4]

After the expiration of Watt's patents, not only was there an explosion in the production and efficiency of engines, but steam power came into its own as the driving force of the Industrial Revolution.



Ironically, not only did Watt use the patent system as a legal cudgel with which to smash competition, but his own efforts at developing a superior steam engine were hindered by the very same patent system he used to keep competitors at bay.


Something similar could happen to 3d printers (or additive manufacturing in general) and make machines faster, cheaper, and easier to use and thus viable for a larger group of people (including some regular consumer).
   
Made in us
The Conquerer






Waiting for my shill money from Spiral Arm Studios

It's possible, but to act as if it's a certainty is woefully premature. It's more reasonable to conclude that they'll likely not become a ubiquitous household feature. Certainly not for printing out new armies of man-dollies.

Self-proclaimed evil Cat-person. Dues Ex Felines

Cato Sicarius, after force feeding Captain Ventris a copy of the Codex Astartes for having the audacity to play Deathwatch, chokes to death on his own D-baggery after finding Calgar assembling his new Eldar army.

MURICA!!! IN SPESS!!! 
   
Made in de
Longtime Dakkanaut




 Grey Templar wrote:
It's possible, but to act as if it's a certainty is woefully premature. It's more reasonable to conclude that they'll likely not become a ubiquitous household feature. Certainly not for printing out new armies of man-dollies.
I don't think it will be as ubiquitous as, for example, owning a regular printer but it'll probably have a higher adoption rate than having a dedicated garage/place for woodworking or hobbies with similar space requirements and be a useful option for really dedicated people.

Some 3D printer can be quite harsh, I recently read about a couple dying (both CS or engineers, if I remember correctly) because their printer releases carbon monoxide and they didn't have adequate ventilation (or some other accidental messup that led to carbon monoxide poisoning).

   
Made in us
Fresh-Faced New User





 Inquisitor Gideon wrote:
Relying on people's good will for keeping your files safe? With all respect, don't be silly.

Hahahaha no, I don't think it would PREVENT it at 100%, or even a 20%


Automatically Appended Next Post:
So, what would be an alternative for digital sculpters to sell their work directly, without beign tied to factory productions, materials and all that stuff we don't want to be mess with?

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/06/17 23:31:40


 
   
Made in au
Hooded Inquisitorial Interrogator





Australia

There seems to be some strong polarisation of opinions here, and I think some realities are getting a bit lost in the middle.

 feeder wrote:
The point is, price will come down and functionality will go up. That's how new tech progresses. We have seen it in our lifetime, with cell phones, computers, etc.

Well, that's true . . . sort-of, to some degree, alot of the time, but not always, and usually with a lot of qualifiers.

 feeder wrote:
Right now we are at the early adoption stage. You are a PC user in 1975, confidently predicting computers will never get better or cheaper.

A PC user in 1975 who predicted that PCs would never become a ubiquitous household appliance, and would remain a tool or toy of the technically minded, would have been right . . . For nearly 20 years. And if weren't for a certain related technology dramatically increasing the utility of them, that PC user may have remained right for much longer.

The Microwave Oven was invented in the 1950s, took 30 odd years to become a common household item, and is not all that different now to how it was in the 1980s. Sure there have been bells and whistles and other small upgrades, but if it had followed some magical curve of performance up, price down, by 2017; I should expect it to cook a turkey in 10 seconds, and cost pocket change.

 Grey Templar wrote:
It's possible, but to act as if it's a certainty is woefully premature. It's more reasonable to conclude that they'll likely not become a ubiquitous household feature. Certainly not for printing out new armies of man-dollies.

By the same token; talk of "highly unlikely" ignores an awful lot of what's going on with the tech. The rise of internet shopping demonstrates a clear desire from consumers to avoid retail if they can, and willingness to wait for things to be delivered (or printed). The technology has a huge potential outside domestic use; art, design, military, medical, the list of applications go on, and that will certainly help to drive development. It's not exactly going to become an orphan tech if we don't develop the i-pod/pad of 3D printing in the next 10 years. All those industry level developments will trickle down, and it will be increasing likely that a domestic model with a real domestic application will become possible at an acceptable price point. Of course by that point, it will have a much wider impact than just our little "gaming figures" industry.

The really big questions aren't so much about 'if', or 'if not', but when, and in what form?


Also: see my Deviant Art for more. 
   
Made in us
Douglas Bader






 feeder wrote:
The point is, price will come down and functionality will go up.


Functionality can't go up, not to the level that is required for 3d printing to become a common thing. The functionality required is essentially "economies of scale cease to exist", and that's simply absurd. Even if 3d printing magically becomes more efficient than conventional manufacturing techniques AND solves all of its problems with things like durability of the parts it's almost guaranteed that the 3d printers that will be used for mass production will be more efficient than home printers. The large company is still going to sell the product at a price that the home 3d printer can't beat, and most customers are still going to buy from stores to save money. And that's going to be true for virtually everything that the average person buys.

The one situation where 3d printers are efficient is in manufacturing very small production runs, especially custom one-time items, where the setup cost is high and can't be spread out over the cost of a full production run. IOW, things like prototypes for R&D, master models for resin casting, etc. But how often does the average person need something like this? Not very often, and that's where you see the obvious difference between 2d printers and 3d printers. Home 2d printers will never compete with mass production for newspapers or books, but the average person has a significant need for one-time printed material (and had that need 50+ years ago) like homework or tax records or whatever. And that's why 2d printers are common. But what is the demand for 3d printers? If you aren't an artist virtually everything you have in your life is mass produced and your 3d printer will sit there collecting dust unless you decide to print something out of sheer stubborn desire to use it. So you're never going to buy it in the first place.

There is no such thing as a hobby without politics. "Leave politics at the door" is itself a political statement, an endorsement of the status quo and an attempt to silence dissenting voices. 
   
Made in au
Grizzled Space Wolves Great Wolf





I think an avenue for 3D printers become mainstream is if manufacturers can bring down the prices and then convince parents to buy them for their kids.

But in general I'm more on the fence about 3D printers becoming mainstream, not saying it won't happen, but also not convinced it will because I don't see a need for them. For most people 3D printing something is just going to be more time consuming, more of a hassle and more expensive than getting something mass produced or even 3D printed by a specialist shop vs printing it themselves.

But then I also think 2D printers are largely unnecessary and their mainstream penetration largely came down to people thinking they need one rather than actually needing one
   
Made in us
The Conquerer






Waiting for my shill money from Spiral Arm Studios

I'm sure there will be cheap gimmicky 3D printers for a few hundred bucks available in the near future so kids can print out really crappy plastic doodads, but nothing that would replace anything you'd buy for every day consumption.

Self-proclaimed evil Cat-person. Dues Ex Felines

Cato Sicarius, after force feeding Captain Ventris a copy of the Codex Astartes for having the audacity to play Deathwatch, chokes to death on his own D-baggery after finding Calgar assembling his new Eldar army.

MURICA!!! IN SPESS!!! 
   
Made in us
Master Tormentor





St. Louis

 Grey Templar wrote:
I'm sure there will be cheap gimmicky 3D printers for a few hundred bucks available in the near future so kids can print out really crappy plastic doodads, but nothing that would replace anything you'd buy for every day consumption.

That's actually where we're at today.
   
Made in us
The Conquerer






Waiting for my shill money from Spiral Arm Studios

 Laughing Man wrote:
 Grey Templar wrote:
I'm sure there will be cheap gimmicky 3D printers for a few hundred bucks available in the near future so kids can print out really crappy plastic doodads, but nothing that would replace anything you'd buy for every day consumption.

That's actually where we're at today.


Sort of. They're still not very user friendly.

Self-proclaimed evil Cat-person. Dues Ex Felines

Cato Sicarius, after force feeding Captain Ventris a copy of the Codex Astartes for having the audacity to play Deathwatch, chokes to death on his own D-baggery after finding Calgar assembling his new Eldar army.

MURICA!!! IN SPESS!!! 
   
Made in au
The Dread Evil Lord Varlak





 jmurph wrote:
The question is whether there are the same kind of incentives for 3d printing. Home paper printing has not seen the same kind of explosion, with dot matrix giving way to ink jets then lasers, etc. Even so, it is still largely bottom end driven. 3d printing offers more options, but still not something that is readily useful to the average consumer. It doesn't help them get entertainment any faster or better. It doesn't provide food. It is a niche product that appeals to certain hobbyists, even if it were fast and high res. It doesn't have the appeal to business and manufacturing interests that spurred CAD automated machines, either. So it will likely remain a niche product.


Yeah, but as I said above lots of things are niche products, until price and technology improves enough that it opens out to a new market, which drives more price and technology improvements, until all of a sudden the product is mainstream.

Now, I'm not saying this will happen because the only rule in consumer tech is that definitive predictions will make you look silly. But I am saying VCR first appeared in the 50s, and had (expensive, crappy) home models from the 1960s, and unit sales that barely moved for 15 years. Then all of sudden it took off, within another 10 years they were in 50% of homes. 3d printing is a lot more obvious as a home product than VCR was in 1961.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 Grey Templar wrote:
As for it being a sound business model, I am also unconvinced. Once you sell someone the file for an object, you'll never get another penny from them for that object since they'll have the file. They'll pay the same price if they make 1 object or if they make 1000. So you'll rapidly cap out your market and no longer have any reliable revenue. Only way you'll have a constant stream of cash is if it's a subscription service and you can somehow cut off people's access to print files. Which then runs into another problem. Why would I, as a consumer, pay hundreds or even thousands of $$$ a year, on top of a $10,000+ machine(which likely isn't cheap to maintain), just so I could print out crappy plastic junk? Junk that, if I need to buy it, can be purchased from ordinary stores. Or ordered online.


This is a lot like, in 1961, asking why you would spent $8,000 (in today's money) for a VCR that you have to assemble yourself, that can only record and show 20 minutes of black and white?

Because the product you will buy in 20 to 25 years will be a fraction of the price, a fraction of the size, and capable of vastly more.

A final nail in the coffin of this idea is that when your "product" is an electronic data file, it's going to be easy to pirate. So one person buys the file to print out your custom phone case, then it gets put up on the internet for anybody to yank for free.


This one doesn't even need speculation. The music and tv industries have already faced these problems and anyone who fought it be trying to keep out of the electronic space got left for dead. You need to be in this space to access the market, because that's how customers want the product. So you need to then build a business model that sidesteps piracy (streaming subscription services), or makes money despite piracy by pricing the product where it is preferable to the risk and immorality of piracy.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 Grey Templar wrote:
It's possible, but to act as if it's a certainty is woefully premature. It's more reasonable to conclude that they'll likely not become a ubiquitous household feature. Certainly not for printing out new armies of man-dollies.


It's even more reasonable to not predict at all. Why the need to conclude anything, as if anyone can do any more than guess. Why not just givethe range of possible tech outcomes and range of possible market developments, and leave it at that. Why do people need, and expect others, to try and guess at exactly what might happen?


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 MkultraStudios wrote:
So, what would be an alternative for digital sculpters to sell their work directly, without beign tied to factory productions, materials and all that stuff we don't want to be mess with?


Like I already said, give away the files. Let people print them. Look at on-line e-sports for a model, where the base of the game is free but there's all kinds of add-ons and tournaments that generate money.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 Pendix wrote:
The Microwave Oven was invented in the 1950s, took 30 odd years to become a common household item, and is not all that different now to how it was in the 1980s. Sure there have been bells and whistles and other small upgrades, but if it had followed some magical curve of performance up, price down, by 2017; I should expect it to cook a turkey in 10 seconds, and cost pocket change.


A microwave at the bottom end of the market in 1980 cost around $500 (today's dollars), was the size of an actual oven, and was not reliable. A microwave today with the same internal space and power can be bought for $60, and is a fraction of the size and weight.

So yeah, being a tenth of the price in real dollars is a strong curve down, especially for a tech that was already reaching maturity.

This message was edited 4 times. Last update was at 2017/06/19 07:34:51


“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”

Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something. 
   
Made in au
Hooded Inquisitorial Interrogator





Australia

 sebster wrote:
A microwave at the bottom end of the market in 1980 cost around $500 (today's dollars), was the size of an actual oven, and was not reliable. A microwave today with the same internal space and power can be bought for $60, and is a fraction of the size and weight.

So yeah, being a tenth of the price in real dollars is a strong curve down, especially for a tech that was already reaching maturity.

Would I have been safer saying 90s rather than 80s? I don't remember the microwave of my childhood being that different to the one I own now. Then again, the one I own now is probably at least 5 years old. Also; $60? Really? . . . I . . . I haven't been shopping for a microwave in a while.


Also: see my Deviant Art for more. 
   
Made in gb
[SWAP SHOP MOD]
Killer Klaivex







 Pendix wrote:
 sebster wrote:
A microwave at the bottom end of the market in 1980 cost around $500 (today's dollars), was the size of an actual oven, and was not reliable. A microwave today with the same internal space and power can be bought for $60, and is a fraction of the size and weight.

So yeah, being a tenth of the price in real dollars is a strong curve down, especially for a tech that was already reaching maturity.

Would I have been safer saying 90s rather than 80s? I don't remember the microwave of my childhood being that different to the one I own now. Then again, the one I own now is probably at least 5 years old. Also; $60? Really? . . . I . . . I haven't been shopping for a microwave in a while.


I bought one a several years back for £30 from Argos to put in my University office that I shared with another postgrad. Since we slept in there a lot whilst working late (very comfy couch), and already had a kettle, it made good sense.

Having said that, we had to keep hiding the thing (it hadn't been electrically tested by the Uni, after all), but it was damn convenient! When they finally found and removed it after a month and a half, the £30 pricetag was cheap enough that I just went and bought another. I figured being able to cook my own dinner on campus was well worth £30 every month or so ( assuming they just kept removing them).

If a 3D printer ends up anywhere near that price point in twenty years, I imagine everyone would have one. In fact, it would probably be integrated with your normal computer printer.

This message was edited 4 times. Last update was at 2017/06/19 22:51:41



 
   
Made in ru
Lone Wolf Sentinel Pilot





Room

3d printer at home is like photo lab at home. Everyone can do, but most just don't need or prefer to order at local lab.

Mordant 92nd 'Acid Dogs'
The Lost and Damned
Inquisition
 
   
Made in au
The Dread Evil Lord Varlak





 Freakazoitt wrote:
3d printer at home is like photo lab at home. Everyone can do, but most just don't need or prefer to order at local lab.


A two month necro? Okay.

One to look at might be that 3d printing ends up like the photo lab, like you suggest, or alternatively that it ends up like the photo quality printer. They were once both way beyond the reach of the average household, but these days the latter can be bought for less than $100.

“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”

Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something. 
   
 
Forum Index » Dakka Discussions
Go to: