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Made in gb
Fixture of Dakka






Glasgow, Scotland

 AlmightyWalrus wrote:
I'm torn. On the one hand, the Kurds really deserve a bone thrown to them after the heavy lifting they've done against ISIS. On the other hand, what happens to everyone who isn't Kurdish living in what would become our hypothetical Kurdistan? Are they going to get displaced in the interest of the Kurds, and if so how is that fair?


Presumably the same thing happening at the moment in Kurd controlled territories. The Kurds have captured ethnically Arab areas in Syria from ISIS. In those areas they've created authorities made up for the various peoples, including women, who rule by democratic council.

Not to sugar coat things of course. If Kurdistan became a thing I'd imagine they'd want to shore up against any possible internal revolts. However in the context of the Middle East it'd be a long way for the Kurds to go before they'd be treating any non-Kurds in their country as poorly as they were treated. However, from an outside standpoint how they handle things may be looked down on (again, ignoring just how gakky a place the Middle East is). The Israelis history of treating other races may be their template, but well, that's reality.
   
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My secret fortress at the base of the volcano!

Ugh. This is terrible. I want the Kurds to have an independant state, I want them to be masters of their own destiny, Iwant them to get the one thing they've been pursuing since the dawn of forever.

But there is literally no way this situation ends well for the Kurds.

Best case scenario? Aliens from space invade Earth next week and all mankind unites to fight them off Independance Day-style (the first film, obviously) and the global population is so heavily reduced that nobody in Turkey or Iran or Iraq notices when the Kurds form their nation.

Worst case (and far more likely scenario)? The Kurds declare independance from Iraq. Turkey and Iran immediately invade to prevent Kurdistan from being a thing. Iraq tries to invade, but can't because: Iraq. So the US is called in to back the Iraqis, in an effort to keep Iran from gaining more power, influence, and/or territory in the region. The US ends up abandoning/betraying/fighting against the Kurds, because it is convenient to our long term "strategy" in the Middle East to dick with Iran, and Turkey is in NATO so we can't go against them militarily. And the US creates a new enemy out of an old ally, all for the sake of messing with an old enemy, keeping a useless ally, and keeping a dodgy "ally".

Emperor's Eagles (undergoing Chapter reorganization)
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On moon miranda.

I'm all for the creation of an independent Kurdistan, the Kurds have certainly earned such.

I'm not sure this is the best way or time however, though in other ways it may be the only time theyre holding enough chips to be taken seriously also. They're geographically positioned amongst hostile neighbors, unified in the loosest sense against a single enemy for the moment, but they also have contributed significantly to the defeat of that opponent and hold more bargaining chips than they ever had, not the least of which is lots of valuable territory that they fought bitterly to take from ISIS.


Iraq itself doesnt have the means to being the Kurds to heel, nor does Syria. Iran, and more importantly, Turkey, are the larger factors, though I cant see either of them pushing to Irbil , in what Iraq views as its territory, either if the Kurds are determined to go independent.

Yet another monkeywrench thrown into the gear cogs of the middle east...

IRON WITHIN, IRON WITHOUT.

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Best case scenario: The nascent state of Kurdistan handles the territorial disputes with Turkey and Iran peacefully (Kurdish Syrian territories likely secede from Syria and joins Kurdistan) and a (proper) democratic system is adopted with a political coalition.

Worst case scenario: Turkey and Iran invade and partition the Iraqi and Syrian Kurdish territories among themselves.

Likely scenario: Political friction with all of it's neighbours, but not enough to cause war. Internal political situation worsens and devolves back into civil war between communists (especially if Syrian Kurdistan secedes) and the rest of the population that with Turkey and Iran supporting opposing sides in a proxy war.
   
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OgreOnAStick wrote:
Best case scenario: The nascent state of Kurdistan handles the territorial disputes with Turkey and Iran peacefully (Kurdish Syrian territories likely secede from Syria and joins Kurdistan) and a (proper) democratic system is adopted with a political coalition.

Worst case scenario: Turkey and Iran invade and partition the Iraqi and Syrian Kurdish territories among themselves.

Likely scenario: Political friction with all of it's neighbours, but not enough to cause war. Internal political situation worsens and devolves back into civil war between communists (especially if Syrian Kurdistan secedes) and the rest of the population that with Turkey and Iran supporting opposing sides in a proxy war.


Not even close to worst case scenario, unfortunately. This is the kind of situation where eventually the Turkish government denies there was ever any such people, so there couldn't possibly have been genocide. And the Iraqis will agree that everyone Kurdish just wandered into Syria one day, so there isn't any need to divide up the country.

Your best case scenario just isn't going to happen. Turkish policy is pretty keen on Kurds being inveterate terrorists

Mostly likely case is some heavy handed suppression, accompanied by some vague denouncements from outside the region that no one pays much attention to. And a Kurdish state never happens.

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 JohnHwangDD wrote:
 Grey Templar wrote:
Kurds definitely should have their own country. Ultimately the Middle East would be better off divided by cultural boundaries instead of what exists nowlines arbitrarily drawn by British Imperialists.


FTFY


Actually a lot was drawn up at Versailles treaty and also through Sikes-Picot. And the British had little to do with that particular border, it bordered French mandate territory.

n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.

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MN (Currently in WY)

Last night on NPR, they mad e areference to the Iraqi army attacking Kurdish Kirkut.

So we basically have the US trained and allied Iraqi/Shia army attacking the U.S. trained and allied Kurdish Peshmerga within the borders of Iraq.

Meanwhile, the U.S. just shrugged our shoulders and asked them to please not fight anymore.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/16/iraq-kurdish-forces-army-us-military


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The Kurds appear to have strategically withdrawn to their own heartlands rather than waste lives trying to hold areas outside of it. It is notable that the Iraqi state forces have stopped short of entering those heartlands. The question now will be whether or not the Iraqi government is prepared to physically invade to compel the Kurds to remain part of the country when they officially break away.


 
   
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It is more complicated than that, as it seems Baghdad made a deal with the PUK to retreat from Kirkuk. The PUK are political enemies of the current Kurdish President Barzani and don't seem interested in dying for him.
   
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MN (Currently in WY)

So, it is an even bigger hash than I alluded to in that breif snippet. Not surprisingly, in the US we hear very little about this.

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 Easy E wrote:
So, it is an even bigger hash than I alluded to in that breif snippet. Not surprisingly, in the US we hear very little about this.


Well we killed off ISIL power bases there. Strategic goal achieved. Now best to get out of there as the quagmire continues to get more quagmirey.

-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
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 Frazzled wrote:
 Easy E wrote:
So, it is an even bigger hash than I alluded to in that breif snippet. Not surprisingly, in the US we hear very little about this.


Well we killed off ISIL power bases there. Strategic goal achieved. Now best to get out of there as the quagmire continues to get more quagmirey.

Like rats abandoning a sinking ship?

Error 404: Interesting signature not found

 
   
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No the big rats: Russians, Syrians, Iranians are still there.

-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
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WTF, PM Abadi announced the pullout of Iraqi army and militia units from Kirkuk.
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2017/10/18/Abdadi-orders-the-withdrawal-of-all-military-forces-from-Kirkuk.html

PUK office in Kirkuk announced in a presser that the PUK will take up administrative control of the city.

WTF

Smells like fake news, but If this is true, it is a ridiculous turn of events and the PUK must have cut a deal.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/10/18 19:13:57


 
   
Made in au
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One of the great ironies of politics is that for years no-one could do a thing in the middle east without a million people chanting 'its all about the oil'. And now Iraq and the Kurds fight over Kirkuk in a fight that is absolutely all about oil, because that region holds 40% of Iraq's oil, and no-one mentions the oil at all.

Because that's what this is all about. In Iraqi constitution the Kurds were given a high level of self rule, but their borders absolutely did not include Kirkut, because that regions oil revenues are vital to a viable Iraqi state. ISIS took the region, and when they fell back it was the Kurds who retook Kirkuk. This is why the Kurds wanted to push for independence now, because they need Kirkuk's oil money to fund an independent state, and if they waited that would mean having to return Kirkuk to Iraq.

“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”

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 sebster wrote:
One of the great ironies of politics is that for years no-one could do a thing in the middle east without a million people chanting 'its all about the oil'. And now Iraq and the Kurds fight over Kirkuk in a fight that is absolutely all about oil, because that region holds 40% of Iraq's oil, and no-one mentions the oil at all.

Because that's what this is all about. In Iraqi constitution the Kurds were given a high level of self rule, but their borders absolutely did not include Kirkut, because that regions oil revenues are vital to a viable Iraqi state. ISIS took the region, and when they fell back it was the Kurds who retook Kirkuk. This is why the Kurds wanted to push for independence now, because they need Kirkuk's oil money to fund an independent state, and if they waited that would mean having to return Kirkuk to Iraq.
I suspect it's due to the constant positive media coverage of Kurds since the early days of the 3rd/4th? Iraq War (whatever you want to call the fight against ISIS) which has spawned the noble Kurd meme in popular opinion. You know how Kurds are noble/liberal/etc fighters seeking fair recompense for a hard and dirty job of beating ISIS. Not a bunch of hill folk with a history of in fighting and drawing regional powers into their squabbles.

Such brave Kurds would never be so mercenary as the US to fight over something as petty as oil and even if they did they deserve it for being such brave soldiers against ISIS. *roll eyes*

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/mideast/iranian-general-helped-iraqis-seize-kirkuk-u-s-allies-n811026
It's clearer and clearer that the PUK sold out Barzani and the KDP for a share of Kirkuk's sp-oil. With the tactical withdrawal of PUK forces from Kirkuk ahead of the Iraqi military and the administrative division of the city between the PUK and the Iraqi federal police after the subsequent withdrawal by the Iraqi military. It's a savvy play and Iran is the real big winner here:
Kurdish officials and former U.S. intelligence officials told NBC News Soleimani helped negotiate a deal under which one Kurdish faction would abandon its checkpoints and allow Iraqi government forces, backed by Iranian-supported Shiite militias, to take the city uncontested ... "We're confident that Qassem Soleimani engineered, guided, directed, manipulated this deal," Bayan Sami Abdul Rahman, the Kurdish representative in Washington, told NBC News.
Beside the very rare US media mention of Iran's vaunted "Shadow Commander", General Soleimani; it's nice to see confirmation of the rumors he was in the city following the Kurdish pullout. The Iranians managed to mediate between Baghdad and the Iraqi Kurds into a power sharing agreement while positioning their historical allies in Iraqi Kurdistan, the PUK/Talabani, in a favorable position. It's another example of Iran making some serious soft/hard power gains in the region in the post-ISIS cleanup. The fallout from the oncoming death of the Iranian Ayatollah will be interesting to watch.
   
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 avantgarde wrote:
he fallout from the oncoming death of the Iranian Ayatollah will be interesting to watch.


Just because I think clarity is important and this issue is often fudged in the west (not picking on you avantgarde or nothing)

There are a great many Ayatollahs, a particular brand of Shi'ite cleric, in Iran (Iran has the highest per capita of Ayatollah's in the world, closely followed by Iraq). Who you mean is the Supreme Leader of Authority, a particular Ayatollah who is hailed as Marja (Grand Ayatollah) who currently happens to be Ali Khamenei who happens to be 78 years old. His health has been long in question, but not in any way that isn't typical for political figures his age. Hillary Clinton, Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong-il*, and really anyone over 60 has those kinds of rumors swirling about them. People have been saying Khamenei's death is "oncoming" for over 20 years. EDIT: People have been predicting Queen Elizabeth's demise since before my parents were born! He'll die eventually sure, but its unlikely to cause any real upset in the Iranian state unless he dies without a succession plan in place.

Khamenei picks all the people responsible for picking his successor at the end of the day and he's treated the subject of his succession as a taboo for ages, however the most recently elected Assembly of Experts (2016) are thought to already be planning for succession with Mahomoud Hashemi Shahroudi as the forefront favorite as his successor . Personally I think it's going to be Sadeq Larijani because I expect Khamenei will still be kicking it for another good seven or eight years at which point Shahroudi will be 76 or 77, and passed over as too old. The current president of Iran Hassan Rouhani was a favorite once but I think his tenure in office has made him too polarizing and revealed him to be far too progressive in domestic and foreign policy to be chosen as Khamenei's successor.

*oops lol put jonh-un there he ain't that old XD

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2017/10/19 21:53:48


   
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 LordofHats wrote:
 avantgarde wrote:
he fallout from the oncoming death of the Iranian Ayatollah will be interesting to watch.

Just because I think clarity is important and this issue is often fudged in the west (not picking on you avantgarde or nothing)
Nah, always good to learn new things. Didn't know they had a Council of Experts election last year.

Khamenei picks all the people responsible for picking his successor at the end of the day and he's treated the subject of his succession as a taboo for ages, however the most recently elected Assembly of Experts (2016) are thought to already be planning for succession with Mahomoud Hashemi Shahroudi as the forefront favorite as his successor . Personally I think it's going to be Sadeq Larijani because I expect Khamenei will still be kicking it for another good seven or eight years at which point Shahroudi will be 76 or 77, and passed over as too old. The current president of Iran Hassan Rouhani was a favorite once but I think his tenure in office has made him too polarizing and revealed him to be far too progressive in domestic and foreign policy to be chosen as Khamenei's successor.
Think Khamenei's got another decade in him? Iran tries to keep everything regarding his health and succession hush hush. I generally stay out of Iranian domestic politics, but my understanding is the taboo on public succession discussion is out of deference to Khamenei and not out of security/stability concerns?

Anyways, whoever is the new Supreme Leader is potentially inheriting a rising regional power with a declining rival, Saudi Arabia. Doesn't exactly smell of peace.

Assembly of Experts
My favorite part of the Iranian government just because of the name. Maybe it's the way Persian translates to English or the religious/revolutionary origins but some of their gov't organization titles are super hammy.
   
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avoiding the lorax on Crion

I see one huge problem..

It took years. And years of warfare. Grueling seige and battles across thousands of towns and lands to drive the evil rats from the land and purge there terror state on the ground.

If the fight each other too much, they will return. They will see weakness and strike again.

This could go very very badly.

We never aniliated then. They never fully died out.

They still could return to spread there evil, terror and war.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/10/20 20:59:14


 
   
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USA

 avantgarde wrote:
Think Khamenei's got another decade in him? Iran tries to keep everything regarding his health and succession hush hush.


This is true of pretty much all public figures though. Remember when Putin vanished for a little while and people were predicting he'd died of whatever disease he's long been rumored to have?

The guy is one of the most powerful men in Iran and Iran actually has a pretty good healthcare system (in terms of it's technical ability that is), so I think he'll still be around for at least another five or so years. Could be wrong, but that's how I see it.

I generally stay out of Iranian domestic politics, but my understanding is the taboo on public succession discussion is out of deference to Khamenei and not out of security/stability concerns?


It's basically that way because Khamenei wants it that way, and for no other real reason. For a long time he didn't want there to be any discussion period, but over the past five years he has noticeably become older and more worn (they guy was born the year WWII started). It's all rumor, and only a few Iranian officials who wouldn't really have any say in the matter have commented on it, but it looks like the Assembly of Experts is in the process of looking for a successor, and there really aren't that many men who are both young enough and respected enough in Iran to actually have the job.

Anyways, whoever is the new Supreme Leader is potentially inheriting a rising regional power with a declining rival, Saudi Arabia. Doesn't exactly smell of peace.


I think it'll come down more to the current state of the the rest of their political system and how far the current reform movement really goes. The Supreme Leader and the rest of the government have always been in something of a tug of war, as while the Supreme Leader is nominally where the buck on all political decisions stops there has been a tendency for the Iranian state to treat him distantly and as something of a formality (which the Supreme Leader hasn't always agreed with), so I think it's really going to come down to a combination of factors.

I think though that without a doubt Iran wants to be a geopolitical power, and will likely pursue that course regardless. Exactly how depends on a number of things, namely how some of the ongoing and present conflicts (Qatar, Iraq, Syria, ISIS, and the Kurds) pan out.

My favorite part of the Iranian government just because of the name.


Well to be fair they are "experts" in the sense that they're all Ayatollahs and Ayatollahs are pretty damn well educated. The issue is that I think they put a lot more stock on being able to recite over 1000 years of Islamic jurisprudence from memory than most of the rest of us

super hammy.


I feel you there.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/10/21 02:16:15


   
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Pleasant Valley, Iowa

 Iron_Captain wrote:
 Frazzled wrote:
 Easy E wrote:
So, it is an even bigger hash than I alluded to in that breif snippet. Not surprisingly, in the US we hear very little about this.


Well we killed off ISIL power bases there. Strategic goal achieved. Now best to get out of there as the quagmire continues to get more quagmirey.

Like rats abandoning a sinking ship?


More like running into a run-down Walmart, grabbing a quart of milk, and then leaving just as the shelving starts collapsing.

We got what we needed and we really shouldn't stay because we're pretty terrible at rebuilding shelving.

 lord_blackfang wrote:
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So is Ikea but they don't just up and quit because they misplaced a few screws

#butnahweprobablyshouldstop

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/10/21 02:29:36


   
 
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