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 Xenomancers wrote:

svknoe wrote:
I have done the math for Rangers shooting at Guilliman. The expected damage of an unbuffed ranger versus him is 0.148 per shot. This means that you need about 61 rangers to on average down him in one turn. On the other hand, with both reroll ones to hit and with Guilliman doomed, the expected damage per hit increases to 0.247 per shot. This means that you need about 36 buffed rangers to kill him in a single turn on average. 36 Rangers cost 432 points, making this a not too expensive way to kill him. Of course, this is not considering the points spent on buffs, and you have to kill him again next turn. There is also variance involved here, so I would not expect even 40 rangers to kill him in one turn every time.

Well That is actually kinda scary. 40 rangers is kind of what I am expecting to see from alaotic armies.

You're never going to get 36 rangers in range to all shoot at Guilliman, so it doesn't matter much beyond theory-crafting.

 BlaxicanX wrote:

 Xenomancers wrote:

svknoe wrote:
I have done the math for Rangers shooting at Guilliman. The expected damage of an unbuffed ranger versus him is 0.148 per shot. This means that you need about 61 rangers to on average down him in one turn. On the other hand, with both reroll ones to hit and with Guilliman doomed, the expected damage per hit increases to 0.247 per shot. This means that you need about 36 buffed rangers to kill him in a single turn on average. 36 Rangers cost 432 points, making this a not too expensive way to kill him. Of course, this is not considering the points spent on buffs, and you have to kill him again next turn. There is also variance involved here, so I would not expect even 40 rangers to kill him in one turn every time.

Well That is actually kinda scary. 40 rangers is kind of what I am expecting to see from alaotic armies.

You're never going to get 36 rangers in range to all shoot at Guilliman, so it doesn't matter much beyond theory-crafting.

Not even just that, but anyone with half a brain running Girlyman will just throw him out of LoS for a turn or two and run units forward. Putting ~500 points into Rangers isn't really going to be a cost-effective option in the long run.

 BlaxicanX wrote:

 Xenomancers wrote:

svknoe wrote:
I have done the math for Rangers shooting at Guilliman. The expected damage of an unbuffed ranger versus him is 0.148 per shot. This means that you need about 61 rangers to on average down him in one turn. On the other hand, with both reroll ones to hit and with Guilliman doomed, the expected damage per hit increases to 0.247 per shot. This means that you need about 36 buffed rangers to kill him in a single turn on average. 36 Rangers cost 432 points, making this a not too expensive way to kill him. Of course, this is not considering the points spent on buffs, and you have to kill him again next turn. There is also variance involved here, so I would not expect even 40 rangers to kill him in one turn every time.

Well That is actually kinda scary. 40 rangers is kind of what I am expecting to see from alaotic armies.

You're never going to get 36 rangers in range to all shoot at Guilliman, so it doesn't matter much beyond theory-crafting.

I don't think it would be a good idea - but I don't see this. Rangers can be set up anywhere on the board over 9" away and they have a 36" range.
So I can get how some terrain set ups might allow you to LOS block him - most of the time you won't. You would need a LOS brick right in the middle of your deployment to hide him behind and then somehow bubble wrap out so you can't just deploy to shoot in from the sides.

Tyel wrote:

 BlaxicanX wrote:

 Xenomancers wrote:

svknoe wrote:
I have done the math for Rangers shooting at Guilliman. The expected damage of an unbuffed ranger versus him is 0.148 per shot. This means that you need about 61 rangers to on average down him in one turn. On the other hand, with both reroll ones to hit and with Guilliman doomed, the expected damage per hit increases to 0.247 per shot. This means that you need about 36 buffed rangers to kill him in a single turn on average. 36 Rangers cost 432 points, making this a not too expensive way to kill him. Of course, this is not considering the points spent on buffs, and you have to kill him again next turn. There is also variance involved here, so I would not expect even 40 rangers to kill him in one turn every time.

Well That is actually kinda scary. 40 rangers is kind of what I am expecting to see from alaotic armies.

You're never going to get 36 rangers in range to all shoot at Guilliman, so it doesn't matter much beyond theory-crafting.

I don't think it would be a good idea - but I don't see this. Rangers can be set up anywhere on the board over 9" away and they have a 36" range.
So I can get how some terrain set ups might allow you to LOS block him - most of the time you won't. You would need a LOS brick right in the middle of your deployment to hide him behind and then somehow bubble wrap out so you can't just deploy to shoot in from the sides.

Do you actually think you're going to be able to set up 36 rangers anywhere near Guilliman?

If you're lucky you'll get within 24.

What about the math for an index Warp Jump Generator Autarch with the Reaper Launcher (not available in the codex and seems available with the FAQ on legacy models)

Take the sniper Warlord trait and now any character is targetable with a 48" range d6 wounding weapon.

Anyone try the math on that with Doom, etc

Kinda curious.

Combine that with a Mindwar and some Embolden to elevate the Farseer's LD and then some LD debuffs....It might not be to hard to press to kill a specific character without hanging your self out to dry too badly.

 BlaxicanX wrote:
Do you actually think you're going to be able to set up 36 rangers anywhere near Guilliman?

If you're lucky you'll get within 24.

Well... yeah?

I can deploy anywhere outside of 9" of your units. I have 36" range. Draw a 36" circle around RG and I can deploy there and shoot him.

You have to block off all such avenues. Sure 36 rangers have a bit of a foot print - but its not as much as you might think.

As I said blocking it is certainly doable - but it requires the terrain to be pretty contrived. Most tournaments don't have such.

Why is Guilliman standing alone in the middle of the table in this scenario?

 BlaxicanX wrote:
Why is Guilliman standing alone in the middle of the table in this scenario?

Why shouldn't he? HE IS A PRIMARCH!

 BaconCatBug wrote:
Considering they can make key units unhittable by GEQ, I expect them to do very well in killing Guard.

BS6+ is not really unhittable, with re-rolls on all, they're still totaling 30+% hits, Eldar being T3 means the humble lasgun totting guardsman can slay the filthy xenos very efficiently if we count point cost

Multiple Ranger units to take on Guilliman. This is not going to work unless your opponent is an absolute novice UM player.
I'll not consider Alaitoc until they reintroduce the disruption table.

Has the 8th ed tournament meta really went to point where if you can't deal with Guilliman(or other big centerpiece models) in ONE round of shooting it's worthless solution? Note to self: Avoid 8th ed tournaments.

tneva82 wrote:
Has the 8th ed tournament meta really went to point where if you can't deal with Guilliman(or other big centerpiece models) in ONE round of shooting it's worthless solution? Note to self: Avoid 8th ed tournaments.

You have to kill him twice. So if you take two turns to kill him the first time, then another two to do it a second time, you might as well use that firepower on something else.

fresus wrote:

tneva82 wrote:
Has the 8th ed tournament meta really went to point where if you can't deal with Guilliman(or other big centerpiece models) in ONE round of shooting it's worthless solution? Note to self: Avoid 8th ed tournaments.

You have to kill him twice. So if you take two turns to kill him the first time, then another two to do it a second time, you might as well use that firepower on something else.

I'd ignore him.
Why investing firepower to someone I can hardly kill?
Instead, kill everything around him.

He isnt that hard to kill.... but as soon as you kill everything else, he is basically worthless.

Also he is a MC, just go up on a 2nd level, he cant follow you, whaahahahahahaha

In view of the original question, I think CW is semi-competitive, second tier when compared with AM and UM.
Serpents are a vital option to play a fast CW army. But there is no bonus for being fast as in previous editions.
If the enemy can down your Serpents quickly (and AM could do it), the army will be screwed.
Playing a static game with Rangers is not going to work either.

No it's progressed to everything into alpha strike as a whole.

Also guilliman shared(d) a trait with conscripts there is just no efficient way of killing him.

Earth127 wrote:
In general, if you wanna avoid codex creep a new codex shouldn't look like it can take over the entire meta in a single swoop or look like it buffed one of the most potent things currently in the game. IG was kinda guilty of both.

I think before we convict guard though, we should see if they actually do take over the meta. Post FAQ, I kind of doubt they will. Compare a mega-buffed tank gunline list like a Cadian Baneblade to a mega-buffed gunline list featuring Robert Gillman Regional Manager of the Ultrasmurfs and you notice one thing right off the bat: You can shoot a baneblade. An army worth of lascannons, especially guilliman buffed lascannons, will chew through a Baneblade in a turn easily, effectively nullifying any elements you brought along to buff the baneblade alongside it.

Guard may be IN the meta, and if things swing from characters to anti-character sniper spam to fast melee to eat the snipers THEN you might see guard as top dogs again to counter the fast melee thanks to how good they are at countering deep strike alpha type stuff. But if we're talking current imperial soup meta vs pure guard trying to do pure guard things, I don't think there's a contest there.

 BlaxicanX wrote:
Why is Guilliman standing alone in the middle of the table in this scenario?

I assume he is surrounded by his army, but since he is taller than a Razorback again you are back to a LOS blocking terrain peice, which conveniently conceals RG from 80% of the table, but at the same time allows you to deploy all your other units within his aura and still see my army.

tneva82 wrote:
Has the 8th ed tournament meta really went to point where if you can't deal with Guilliman(or other big centerpiece models) in ONE round of shooting it's worthless solution? Note to self: Avoid 8th ed tournaments.

The game has always been like this with big models FWIW. Its the old "Distraction Carnifex" principle - if you waste time shooting big stuff to no effect, you lose. So unless you can one-round it, don't bother attacking it and attack smaller stuff instead.

the_scotsman wrote:

tneva82 wrote:
Has the 8th ed tournament meta really went to point where if you can't deal with Guilliman(or other big centerpiece models) in ONE round of shooting it's worthless solution? Note to self: Avoid 8th ed tournaments.

The game has always been like this with big models FWIW. Its the old "Distraction Carnifex" principle - if you waste time shooting big stuff to no effect, you lose. So unless you can one-round it, don't bother attacking it and attack smaller stuff instead.

But this breaks down because Guilliman is such a ridiculously good force multiplier.

He's severely undercosted for what he does. Also ridiculously durable, and good in combat (and with a reasonable shooting attack).

Oh and he gives you CP's.

He's a great representation of a Primarch, but he should cost around 100 pts more.

Meanwhile, the poor old Wraithknight needs a points drop... why they did not fix this, I do not know.

Well guilliman needs a nerf. Maybe we should start comparing eldar to gak other than Guilliman?

Being able to hide Gulliman AND get your entire army into his buff bubble is... not the most realistic plan? Any good piece of LOS blocking terrain that can hide him should lock out a good chunk of his bubble for use, which limits the number of rerolls he's getting. If you've got giant snipers nests in his deployment zone, well... that sounds like table setup problems, and is more on the individual game which you can't really mathhammer out.

The strongest thing about having a minus to hit is that you apply your rerolls before your modifiers, so Ultramarines will only reroll 1s and 2s against unbuffed Alaitoc rangers. Turning a third of their dice into dead space that isn't boosted by Guilliman isn't a bad deal, but at the same time is trying to snipe out Gulliman better than just bringing a crapton of anti-tank to annihilate his army before they can close? The new Fire Prism is basically anti-everything, and Wave Serpents with CTM and Dual Bright Lances will degrade Assaultbacks pretty quickly while they have to drive closer and cope with a -2 to hit because of that.

Only itc is going to have enough los blocking terrain for that to be remotely feasible.

The Phoenix Lords were described as being the same kind of powerhouses that primarchs were. Somewhere along the line, they turned into veteran sergeants instead.

Earth127 wrote:
Well guilliman needs a nerf. Maybe we should start comparing eldar to gak other than Guilliman?

The point wasn't to compare them TO guilliman, the point was to see if they had a decent TAC element that could take out Guilliman as a counter-meta list.

If the Illic+Rangers element of the army was a small enough part that it could take the Guilliman out of a Guilliman list (and bonus points if they can also threaten other common competitive builds) then it'd be useful to bring them to a tournament where you know Guilliman is going to be in 2 out of 3 lists.

Rangers, in my eyes, seem like the best Eldar troops choice with the new 'dex. Small squads, good at surviving gunlines, good at picking out important characters and following up with a street sweeper gunline of tanks.

A list that has a good matchup vs what's currently in the meta and a bad one against what's out of the meta - ideal for tournament play.

I think all craftworlds are still outclassed by Ynnari.

This codex has already improved one of the Ynnari power builds by making dark reapers cheaper. Come December with the release of chapter approved, the cheaper rangers will become ObSec for Ynnari. Once Ynnari get their own strategems, artifacts, and expanded psychic powers then that is the final nail in the coffin for craftworld and possibly drukhari in regards to tournament competitiveness.

 D6Damager wrote:
I think all craftworlds are still outclassed by Ynnari.

This codex has already improved one of the Ynnari power builds by making dark reapers cheaper. Come December with the release of chapter approved, the cheaper rangers will become ObSec for Ynnari. Once Ynnari get their own strategems, artifacts, and expanded psychic powers then that is the final nail in the coffin for craftworld and possibly drukhari in regards to tournament competitiveness.

It seems like a problem that there are relatively few units where it's actually a hard choice whether to take them as Ynnari or Alatoic. But the two do mix-and-match somewhat well. The main unit that currently sees some play in tournaments and which has to make a hard choice is Shadow Spectres. But otherwise you're probably best-off taking Alatoic vehicles and Ynnari infantry.

So for example you could bring an Alatoic Battalion consisting of 2 psykers, 3 units of Rangers, and up to 5 Wave Serpents, and then you could bring Ynnari detachments with Wraithguard or Dark Reapers which would at least start inside Alatoic Serpents, or a big unit of Ynnari Spectres which will use the deep strike stratagem to avoid any T1 fire, with the potential to be Quickened into flamer range and Soulburst for two shots.

 D6Damager wrote:
I think all craftworlds are still outclassed by Ynnari.

This codex has already improved one of the Ynnari power builds by making dark reapers cheaper. Come December with the release of chapter approved, the cheaper rangers will become ObSec for Ynnari. Once Ynnari get their own strategems, artifacts, and expanded psychic powers then that is the final nail in the coffin for craftworld and possibly drukhari in regards to tournament competitiveness.

The question is... are Ynnari getting any of these things? Their artifacts are represented by the Croneswords that their unique characters are carrying, and we know they're only getting an update in the upcoming Triumvirate box re-release. It's entirely possible they won't be getting any additional psychic powers or stratagems, given how strong Soul Burst is. Will be interesting to see what comes with the new box - while I doubt they will say 'Ynnari can only take Aeldari units from Index Xenos 1', it is a possibility.

 RuneGrey wrote:

 D6Damager wrote:
I think all craftworlds are still outclassed by Ynnari.

This codex has already improved one of the Ynnari power builds by making dark reapers cheaper. Come December with the release of chapter approved, the cheaper rangers will become ObSec for Ynnari. Once Ynnari get their own strategems, artifacts, and expanded psychic powers then that is the final nail in the coffin for craftworld and possibly drukhari in regards to tournament competitiveness.

The question is... are Ynnari getting any of these things? Their artifacts are represented by the Croneswords that their unique characters are carrying, and we know they're only getting an update in the upcoming Triumvirate box re-release. It's entirely possible they won't be getting any additional psychic powers or stratagems, given how strong Soul Burst is. Will be interesting to see what comes with the new box - while I doubt they will say 'Ynnari can only take Aeldari units from Index Xenos 1', it is a possibility.

The whole point of putting their rules in the box is so that you don't need the index to use them. They're not getting anything new right now other than whatever they can make use of out of the new codex. But at some point there will probably be another book with Ynnari in it.

 RuneGrey wrote:

 D6Damager wrote:
I think all craftworlds are still outclassed by Ynnari.

This codex has already improved one of the Ynnari power builds by making dark reapers cheaper. Come December with the release of chapter approved, the cheaper rangers will become ObSec for Ynnari. Once Ynnari get their own strategems, artifacts, and expanded psychic powers then that is the final nail in the coffin for craftworld and possibly drukhari in regards to tournament competitiveness.

The question is... are Ynnari getting any of these things? Their artifacts are represented by the Croneswords that their unique characters are carrying, and we know they're only getting an update in the upcoming Triumvirate box re-release. It's entirely possible they won't be getting any additional psychic powers or stratagems, given how strong Soul Burst is. Will be interesting to see what comes with the new box - while I doubt they will say 'Ynnari can only take Aeldari units from Index Xenos 1', it is a possibility.

I'm sure GW is paying attention to Triumvirate box sales and how popular the army is at tournaments. It would be really simple to combine Harlequins and Ynnari into a single updated book especially if there's no new models for either. It might be one of the last books released, but I would bet it's coming eventually. We'll see soon enough if any of their points costs get adjusted in the upcoming Chapter Approved.