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 Vermis wrote:
Pirate: What happens if ninth is released and most of the rumours turn out to be true? Will your head explode like that guy in Scanners, or will you just melt while wailing "Oh, what a world, what a world!"

Well, some of the rumors did come true already. The world was destroyed and they're starting over in some way.

As a fellow Tomb King player, I feel that he will more likely have to take a crumble test.

Crumble? Meh. It's not as bad as when my Paymaster dies...

 Shas'O Dorian wrote:

Matt Ratsinburger wrote:
At the same time though I hear people who haven't been in the game for a while say "...I'll check it out. I might start back up."

Hate to burst your bubble but this happens literally every edition and most often the end result is "looks kinda cool, I'll maybe give it a try" and they never do. Now imagine if they needed new / rebased models as well?

NO lie. I do see that too.

It would be a big surprise to me if 9th edition brings more people back to the game. I just don't see it happening there is zero talk about it in my area. I heard one guy comment to the other " I heard they blew up the world?" and back to their game of warmachine they went. I think GW super secret release works against them which is one of my biggest complaints about GW. PP does their upcoming releases so much better, come on GW throw us a freaking bone!!

 Charles Rampant wrote:
As a fellow Tomb King player, I feel that he will more likely have to take a crumble test.

The one time I'll wish I had my standard bearer following me around


In all seriousness though, if 9th comes out and it is indeed a skirmish game I will play it. If I like it I'll stick with it. If not I'll pull my warmachine back out of the closet, or have fun with my Darklands kickstarter stuff when it comes in.

Though honestly I just don't see that happening. Why would GW abandon their existing game entirely after investing all this money into it, in favour of an untested skirmish game? Seems much more likely that they will bring in a skirmish game to draw people INTO the existing game, where people need a whack more models.

If they feth it up then I'll be upset. But there isn't much sense in getting upset on the basis of ephemeral internet rumours, is what I have been trying to say. Let's wait until we see what this 9th edition thing *is* before we all start knocking it.

 Chute82 wrote:
It would be a big surprise to me if 9th edition brings more people back to the game. I just don't see it happening there is zero talk about it in my area. I heard one guy comment to the other " I heard they blew up the world?" and back to their game of warmachine they went. I think GW super secret release works against them which is one of my biggest complaints about GW. PP does their upcoming releases so much better, come on GW throw us a freaking bone!!

The funny thing is that GW used give out more info on upcoming releases earlier. They'd tell you what was coming out next month and also have teasers of things coming out over the next several months. You'd see the master sculpts for new models and stuff like that.

It's only the last few years they've gone to the super secret method of releases, and given they're sticking with it, they must feel it is to their benefit. It just seems crazy to me because there must be a huge number of people on a WHFB buying hiatus because we know a new edition is coming out but have no fething idea what it's going to be.

Last I heard if all the whfb players stopped buying it would be about as noticeable as a sparrow fart in a hurricane.

SeanDrake wrote:
Last I heard if all the whfb players stopped buying it would be about as noticeable as a sparrow fart in a hurricane.

There's conflicting rumours about how popular WHFB is. I've heard one rumour saying it's less than 10% of revenue. I've heard other rumours saying that around half of global 40k sales are in the USA, and given the USA is only 1/3 of the global market it doesn't really add up if WHFB is less than 10% of global sales. I think in the end we just don't know, the only solid numbers we have are from the chapterhouse case and I think they mostly predate 8th edition. I have a feeling that the "less than 10%" rumour might only refer to the USA, then the rumours align a bit better.

Either way, GW's profit is only about 12% of their total revenue, so they can't really afford to lose income streams without replacing them with something else.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
Either way, GW's profit is only about 12% of their total revenue, so they can't really afford to lose income streams without replacing them with something else.

That is patently false, as any CFO will tell you.

If I cut 30% of my cost, and retain 85% of my business, that is a net gain for the corporation.

GW cannot afford to keep feeding the white elephant of Fantasy, so the choices are to slim it down or cut it entirely.

 JohnHwangDD wrote:

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
Either way, GW's profit is only about 12% of their total revenue, so they can't really afford to lose income streams without replacing them with something else.

That is patently false, as any CFO will tell you.

If I cut 30% of my cost, and retain 85% of my business, that is a net gain for the corporation.

GW cannot afford to keep feeding the white elephant of Fantasy, so the choices are to slim it down or cut it entirely.

Sorry I should have qualified my statement with "assuming you can't reduce costs by a similar margin". I don't think cutting Fantasy is going to cut costs considerably. Most of GW's costs come from their infrastructure to exist on the scale they do, not from the actual miniature production itself.

I guess they could cut costs if by dropping WHFB it allowed them to move to even smaller stores and reduce the rent on them and maybe reduce their warehousing requirements (no idea how much warehousing costs them and how much it could realistically be reduced, I feel like it wouldn't be considerable but it's hard to say). I wouldn't expect having or not having Fantasy would greatly change the cost of distribution and I doubt you could cut down considerably on staff by cutting Fantasy.

Sorry, a big chunk of that is "cost reduction" that has been ripping through my industry for the past few years, thinking that nobody will notice the reduction in experience, quality and service as they race to the bottom.

In GW's case, a certain part of their infrastructure is games development and tooling. If they can cut their Fantasy cost in half (or more) by reducing armies and simplifying the game, while losing only 10% of the player base, GW comes out ahead.

As a side effect, this reduces Fantasy shelf space, warehousing stock, etc. GW can fill that gap with 40k product that actually does sell, rather than slower-moving Fantasy product.

I'm pretty sure that is the fundamental calculation that is driving 9E.

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
In GW's case, a certain part of their infrastructure is games development and tooling. If they can cut their Fantasy cost in half (or more) by reducing armies and simplifying the game, while losing only 10% of the player base, GW comes out ahead.

Except you can't actually say that without knowing what the Fantasy costs are. Even if WHFB has as many kits and as many books as 40k, it doesn't mean Fantasy is half their cost.

If you pull all the Fantasy stock off the shelf, you don't magically save any money unless you start moving to smaller stores, you don't magically fill the empty space with 40k stuff without investing a lot of money in development. You might be able to reduce warehousing costs but I question whether the warehousing cost is significant anyway (the warehouse I'm part leasing is expensive... to me... it's a drop in the ocean of GW's costs and I don't think GW would need many warehouses that size to hold all their stock for a region).

At the end of the day we don't really know, we don't have sufficient information, we don't know GW's costs, we can only guess at the current popularity of the game and how much it's decreased since 7th ed. GW does have the necessary information, but I don't trust they are using it correctly. This is the same GW that's on the back foot and rapidly losing market share.

Even if WHFB is less popular than 40k doesn't mean it's worth filling the shelves with only 40k. Diversification is good, otherwise they'd be releasing nothing but Space Marines seeing as how that's their best seller.

If GW has lost any impulse sales due to short-stocking various 40k whatnots, then they absolutely would drive more sales via deeper 40k stock in store.

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
If GW has lost any impulse sales due to short-stocking various 40k whatnots, then they absolutely would drive more sales via deeper 40k stock in store.

But are they losing 40k sales because they are short on stock in the store or because GWs lack of market research has led them to doing a limited edition run of 2,000 when they have 15,000 customers who WOULD buy it and thousands more who MIGHT buy it?

 jonolikespie wrote:

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
If GW has lost any impulse sales due to short-stocking various 40k whatnots, then they absolutely would drive more sales via deeper 40k stock in store.

But are they losing 40k sales because they are short on stock in the store or because GWs lack of market research has led them to doing a limited edition run of 2,000 when they have 15,000 customers who WOULD buy it and thousands more who MIGHT buy it?

They might not do adequate market research, but they DO know how much of what product they're selling. My guess is that they're looking at WHFB and seeing that they sell loads of whatever product is brand new, but many of the kits for older armies are basically just dead stock. Thus the whole focus on this business model restructure revolves around trying to make their shelf space more efficient by focusing on the "new shiny" product and moving as much of the rest as possible to direct-order only.

Thus they carve down what is in stores to only 3 core kits (core as in core to the army, not core on the force org chart), and everything else you order special (unless it's for a new army). They might lose SOME sales from a lack of impulse purchases, but what they lose there they'll gain in having more space dedicated to new product which they know sells better anyways.

PirateRobotNinjaofDeath wrote:
They might lose SOME sales from a lack of impulse purchases, but what they lose there they'll gain in having more space dedicated to new product which they know sells better anyways.

Maybe, I don't really think so though.

GW obviously has the numbers to make an educated decision, I don't trust they know what to do with them.

I think they're already suffering from over investing in 40k instead of diversifying with more games. I'm sure the faster release cycle has bought in more of the "must buy new shiny things" crowd, but it has it's limit and I tend to think 40k (as far as being a cash cow is concerned) is living on borrowed time.

Matt Ratsinburger wrote:
I didn't feel like reading the 10 pages of comments before writing this so I apologize if this has been said already. I'm really surprised that no one has speculated that in addition to revamping there is a degree of "getting back to basics" in the rumors. Fantasy started off with 6 armies (skaven, o & g, undead, elves, empire, dwarves) and this whole skirmish deal people keep talking about, its what fantasy used to be. IMO, if the rumors are true, GW is actually trying to bring back the old school people into the game as well as newbs. Also, they're prob trying to set up another boom like 5th ed. that's my 2 warp tokens

They would get me back as an old school person, and gain my sons as newbs if they went this route, most likely, unless they completely it up.

I started in 5th edition and have many fond memories from that edition, although I thought 6th was a step in the right direction. I got out due to getting married and starting a family, but now that my kids are getting older and life is calming down a bit I'm getting back into gaming. I opted to get into 40K back in 2010 because of the uncertainty over what 8th would bring. Chicken littles scared me off and I kind of wish I went WFB instead of 40K.

I'm interested to see what's coming.

EDIT: I'll add, though, that GW's super-secrecy is rather frustrating though. I have to idea what's coming so I have to just wait.

PirateRobotNinjaofDeath wrote:

My guess is that they're looking at WHFB and seeing that they sell loads of whatever product is brand new, but many of the kits for older armies are basically just dead stock. Thus the whole focus on this business model restructure revolves around trying to make their shelf space more efficient by focusing on the "new shiny" product and moving as much of the rest as possible to direct-order only.

Thus they carve down what is in stores to only 3 core kits (core as in core to the army, not core on the force org chart), and everything else you order special (unless it's for a new army). They might lose SOME sales from a lack of impulse purchases, but what they lose there they'll gain in having more space dedicated to new product which they know sells better anyways.

 Schlyne wrote:


Unfortunately, some of this is just due to the nature of the game. You only need one named character of "Lord GribbyGuts" in X army, after all... How many of them are they really going to need on the shelf collecting dust? If you've been in the hobby for a while, you've gotten to that point of "ok, I have all of my 5 boxes of A, and my 3 boxes of B to make my rank and file and so does everybody else locally that plays this army. So the boxes just sit around until a new player for that army comes in...which might be years.

If it's a GW store, they've got the order point and a manger that will go through the song and dance about the order point and the rest of the army catalog/free shipping etc.

Right? So why fight it.

Though the unfortunate thing for GW and independents is that, if I'm going to have to wait for the order to come in anyways, I might as well order it online and get it cheaper. We pay full retail as much for convenience as anything else, so if that goes out the window there may be a problem.

Though I suppose that calling up my FLGS a week or so before I actually need something is just as easy. They still carry all the hobby supply stuff that I'm inclined to impulse buy, so it might not be as big of an effect as I'm thinking. Time shall tell...


Honestly though I'm actually rather excited about this change. If it means my chosen armies get models more often than once every 5 years that's a great thing for me. I like having new choices to shake up my list, as they tend to get stagnant after a while.

PirateRobotNinjaofDeath wrote:


Though the unfortunate thing for GW and independents is that, if I'm going to have to wait for the order to come in anyways, I might as well order it online and get it cheaper. We pay full retail as much for convenience as anything else

Actually I pay closer to full retail because my LGS can't afford to offer discounts (They're in financial distress as is) and I enjoy having a place to play with terrain so it is in my best interest to spend the extra 10% to keep them open. Yes I could get it cheaper online and while that has the great short term return of saving me $5-$20, if too many people do it it has the terrible long term goal of forcing my LGS out of business, or forcing them to reduce hours.

 Shas'O Dorian wrote:

PirateRobotNinjaofDeath wrote:


Though the unfortunate thing for GW and independents is that, if I'm going to have to wait for the order to come in anyways, I might as well order it online and get it cheaper. We pay full retail as much for convenience as anything else

Actually I pay closer to full retail because my LGS can't afford to offer discounts (They're in financial distress as is) and I enjoy having a place to play with terrain so it is in my best interest to spend the extra 10% to keep them open. Yes I could get it cheaper online and while that has the great short term return of saving me $5-$20, if too many people do it it has the terrible long term goal of forcing my LGS out of business, or forcing them to reduce hours.

Yeah, I try to buy as much as possible at my LGS as well. That means I am paying full retail since they can't afford to offer any discounts, but see it as I'm paying a premium in order to have a place to play games and it's therefore worth the extra money. Because if my LGS closes-up shop, I'll have no one to play with other than my sons and even then I'd have to invest way more $$ in terrain whereas there's tonnes of the stuff available to use for free at the LGS.

[quote=PirateRobotNinjaofDeath 639726 7742620 Why would GW abandon their existing game entirely after investing all this money into it, in favour of an untested skirmish game? .