Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

In the interest of mathhammering, with the assumption that a squad of boyz are 6 inches apart from front line to back line, and that boys roll an average of 3 on a d6 roll to run (fair assumptions). Please do not comment on these assumptions, this is to simulate what would happen if my friend's tact squad wanted to beat down my boys squad.

Marine squad
9 Marines with 1 rocket launcher (flamer is free but no big difference by using boltgun)
1 Sergeant with power fist and flamer combi

total: 205 pts

Ork Squad
29 Boys
1 Nob with power klaw

total: 215 pts

~~~~~~~

In a pitched battle set up, measuring diameter of bases to be 1 inch. Space Marine squad deploys on the back of map, Orks deploy as close as possible. No cover available to boyz (also no KFF), space marine squad has vulcan so twin linked flamers for space marines.

~~


35 inches away

98% chance that each shot hits 3

3 hits, 1.5 kills

26 inches away

3 hits 1.5 kills

17 inches away

3 hits 1.5 kills
8 shots, 4 hits, 2 kills

8 inches away
move up 6 inches
9 shots, 4.5 hits, 2.25 kills
5 hits, 2.5 kills

11.25 kills

~~

17.75 boyz 1 nob

ASSAULT!

9 marines 1 sergeant
Marines
18 attacks, 9 hits, 4.5 wounds, 3.75 kills
Boys
42 attacks, 21 hits, 7 wounds, 2.331 kills
Power attacks

Sergeant
3 attacks, 1.5 hits, 1.25 kills
Nob
3 attacks, 1.5 hits, 1.25 kills

TOTAL KILLS
Marines - 5 kills
Boys - 3.581 kills

Fearless penalty on Boyz - 1.419 kills

REMAINING

Marines --- 4.25 Marines 1 Sergeant
Orks --- 11.331 Boyz 1 Nob

ASSAULT 2!

Marines
4.25 Attacks, 2.125 hits, 1.0625 wound, 0.885 kills

Boyz
31.338 attacks, 15.669 hits, 5.223 wounds, 1.741 kills

Sergeant
2 attacks, 1 hit, .833 kills
Nob
3 attacks, 1.5 hits, 1.25 kills

TOTAL KILLS
Marines - 1.718 kills
Boys - 2.991 kills

REMAINING

Marines --- 1.259 Marines 1 Sergent
Orks --- 8.34 Boyz 1 Nob

ASSAULT 3!

Marines
1.259 attacks, .6295 hits, .31475 wounds, .262 kills

Boyz
24.234 attacks, 12.117 hits, 4.039 wounds, 1.346 kills

Sergeant
2 attacks, 1 hit, .833 kills
Nob
3 attacks, 1.5 hits, 1.25 kills

TOTAL KILLS
Marines - 1.095 kills
Orks - 2.569 kills

DONE

REMAINING ORKS
5.77 Orks and 1 Nob


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Overall not too bad, most other scenarios that don't include a rocket launcher would end with 13 remaining orks and 1 nob


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Forgot to mention

I attempted to calculate the odds that the rocket launcher would miss the ork boyz by taking the 2d6 roll scatter roll required to miss the front line or miss the back line. Maximum scatter distance is 8 inches, with a 3 inch small blast template, only a scatter of 10 or more would miss.

After calculating the probabability of all rolls, it turned out to be about 16% or so. Then i took the arc length of the blast template that would enable at least 1 hit on the squad in the worst possible scenario, compared it to the arc length of the possible directions that the scatter could land, and then converted the range to the 360 degrees that the scatter could move towards. After that, i doubled the value since the miss could happen either moving towards the front of the boyz squad or the back of the boyz squad.

My math skills are a bit rusty so i'm not sure if this is right, but there is approximately 98% chance that the scatter will hit about 3 orks

So, advantage Orks... but the SM squad can capture 2 objectives... it can run away in CC and shot up your orks at least once... it can also use the Rocket to destroy a vehicle at long range... and it needs another 10 points... say a plasma gun?

Your calcs do not account for the possibility that the Orks get the charge of with the "Waaagh!" Special rule.

They also do not account for the fact that said special rule leads to the death of an ork boy as a result of rolling a '1' to run.

I'd also like to see these calcs done with shoota boyz instead of slugga boyz, as it would be quite interesting.

Lobukia wrote:So, advantage Orks... but the SM squad can capture 2 objectives... it can run away in CC and shot up your orks at least once... it can also use the Rocket to destroy a vehicle at long range... and it needs another 10 points... say a plasma gun?

funnily enough, i actually did do the math hammering for the plasma gun. Having the plasma gun is still rapid fire, thus performing only slightly better than the boltgun. The end result between plasma gun and boltgun was a difference of .108 dead boyz before assaulting.


overall the reason i didn't include the waaagh! was because this would simulate one portion of an army, and another boy squad would have used the waaagh to reach something a little closer.

Shoota boys are an interesting idea, i shall measure that against the boltgun, rocket launcher, flamer combi


Automatically Appended Next Post:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
you know what? scratch that. no need to calculate the odds. Shoota boys would win. (Sorry space marines) lol i'll still math hammer it out to prove it.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Marines
9 Marines with a rocket launcher and 1 Marine with a combi flamer

Orks
26 shoota boys, 3 big shoota boys, 1 shoota PK Nob
~~~~~~~~~~


MARINES GO FIRST

TURN 1

35 inches away

98% chance that each frag rocket shot hits 3 boyz

3 hits, 1.5 kills

Boyz squad moves forward 6 inches, average runs 3 inches

27.5 boyz and 1 nob remaining

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

TURN 2

26 inches away

3 hits 1.5 kills

Boyz squad moves forward 6 inches, average runs 3 inches

26 boyz and 1 nob remaining

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Turn 3

17 inches away

3 hits, 1.5 kills
8 boltgun shots, 4 hits, 2 wounds, 2 kills

22.5 boyz and 1 nob remaining

Boyz squad move up 6 inches

47 shoota shots, 15.67 hits, 7.83 wounds, 2.61 kills
9 big shoota shots, 3 hits, 2 wounds, .67 kills

5.72 marines and 1 sergeant remaining (remove rocket launcher)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Turn 4

11 inches away

Marine squad moves 6 inches forward

5.72 boltpistol shots, 2.86 hits, 1.43 wounds, 1.43 kills

(7 inch template between 5 inches spacing, 2 inch overlap on squad = ~2 boys)
2 hits, 1 wound, 1 kill

20.07 boyz and 1 nob

ASSAULT!


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


at this point there's already more boyz remaining and already less marines to initiate the charge. For end combat results, there will definitely be more boyz remaining. A couple oversimplifications, but honestly its pretty accurate as to what would statistically happen.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
even though the orks now get less attacks, theres MUCH less marines remaining

Just curious, what if you put 10 marines, in 2 combat squads. Both with room to move... 5 out of a Rhino, with a sarg using chainsword and pistol, and a heavy bolter for the heavy weapon... and then 5 marines in the Rhino, with an extra SB for the Rhino... have the Rhino give ground to keep the Orks at range, and have the marines firing out of the fire points in the Rhino. Only have them disembark when they run out of room.

This is how I would fight 20+ boyz, and hopefully this gets the SM closer to parity

EDIT: BTW, my build is 215 points

8 marine bolter shots hit 5,33 times average. That wouldn't change the outcome though, but narrows the gap a bit.

Where are the 2 flamers, which'll hit 3 orks both as an assumption.

Vasara wrote:8 marine bolter shots hit 5,33 times average. That wouldn't change the outcome though, but narrows the gap a bit.

I'm torn, the Green Horde part of me loves this... the SM player in me groans

EDIT: While the first CS of 5 is in CC, the Rhino gets to move back about of foot range further... I think the SM might have a chance... and if the 2 CS are standing next to each other, the Boyz have to decide which way to go.

Point for point 1 ork unit is superior to almost everything in the game.

The issue is one of force multipliers. As you state, 1 tac squad wins combat by about 1.5, and causes 1.5 more no retreat casualties. However, 2 tac squads win combat by 3, and cause 5 more no retreat casualties versus 2 ork units in a multiassault. Similarly, 3 tac squads win by 4.5, and cause 11 more casualties on 3 multiassaulted orks.

Also, lots of space marine characters grant force multiplers. Pedro gives a charging tac squad 50% more attacks, which is an extra 2-3 dead orks per tac squad, multiplied by fearless saves, multiplied by multiassaults.

Then we get into attack denial. Multiassault with a dread, with careful positioning, and your 10 assaulting tactical marines will only have 10 or so orks facing them, while the other 20 plink off a dreadnaught.

So yeah, point for point orks are amazing... but they have to be because they dont get much in the way of force multipliers, especially in CC, when you start stacking multiple units up at once. Ghaz gives fearless and a 6 inch fleet, big meks give a 5+ cover save, leaving warpheads (very unreliable) and mad dok, which give FnP at the cost of rage. Good, but not enough to overcome things like 6 inch bubbles of FnP and Furious assault from BA, or big grey hunter squads popping the banner of win, or Pedro's +1 attack bubble.