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Historically, Games Workshop releases it's annual report mid-late July---so within the next 3 weeks we should see the report. I believe it shows sales up to end of May---which means it may not reflect the latest PR debacles they've went through.

Last report was the half year during Jan.---and it showed sales dropping 4%--which they offset by slashing stores/staff/etc. Their stock plummeted as a result of that report---and has crawled back up since then.

What's your thoughts? Good report incoming---or another bad showing? Remember, only up to May here---so the latest wave of bad news hasn't affected sales yet (If it will).

As much as I love GW and want them to get better, their recent actions would seem to encourage a negative growth rather then a positive one.

I'm genuinely interested, regardless of result.

The finecast was too recent to really affect it. With the dark eldar, I think we are going to see positive.

With Dark Eldar in 4Q10 and Grey Knights in 2Q11, it will be positive.

I'm dubious either new codex is as important to GW as new recruits, due to their current marketing model. That's just my supposition though.

I'd like to see some negative results - but I agree with kronk. The release of the new Dark Eldar models and the Grey Knights will most likely make the report positive.

Conspiracy alert:

Waittaminute... Their Annual Report won't show anything past May?

And the rage-storm they let loose was in June?

Those clever sons-of-female-dogs! I sense... a conspiracy!

Between DE, GKs, and Tomb Kings, I expect positive. The next report should be really interesting though.

Stable sales, higher proffits.
The last thing that will show up there will probably be gray knights since I do think they are savvy enough to not schedule a price hike (not to mention all the other unforeseen bad pr) right before a big report.
Next January's report might show a big sales drop though.

New codex releases will be a positive but it will be a cautious report (IMO).

European retailers at least, were given significant extra credit in May and encouraged to use it, also the pre embargo and price rise surge was very large. It will make the Qtr's figures look great. However GW are obliged to mention these factors in their release.

It's the one after this I'm really curious about.

The six month report from last November was not good reading.

In the second half of their year, though, they launched two new Codexes for 40K, Deldar and GK, both with new model ranges.

It was Christmas.

They should also have benefited from the pre-price rise buying surge as noted above.

The next interim report will be interesting reading since it will reflect the introduction of Finecast and the whopping price rises of June.

I can't see it being anything but negative.

I don't know about the rest of the world, but in the UK, the recession is really starting to bite.

Well if Wayland's situation is any indication the price rise caused a massive supply rush to most online retailers as thousands of people passed emergency bulk orders, so i guess that would influence the may results anyway.

Kilkrazy wrote:In the second half of their year, though, they launched two new Codexes for 40K, Deldar and GK, both with new model ranges.

It was Christmas.

They should also have benefited from the pre-price rise buying surge as noted above.

Last year they launched stuff, had a pre (annual) price-rise surge and it was also Christmas last year too.

Although, apparently DE was/(is) huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge for them, so combined with the first-day-of-finecast-feeding-frenzy on 28th May, they may have done OK.

The next interim report will be interesting reading since it will reflect the introduction of Finecast and the whopping price rises of June

And the termination of virtually all sales to the Antipodes....

I also think January's report will likely make uncomfortable reading. Will SoM and 'crons sales outdo the damage they've done to themselves? We'll see.

My money, for what it's worth is on steady but unspectacular (real) decline in turnover, and increase in profit for this year. Larger (real) decrease in turnover and static profit for next interim. But will see. GW have already survived 3 years beyond when I originally predicted in 2004 that they'd go under, so wha do I know! (Obviously not enough about the currency markets and licencing deals...)

The current customer base would have responded well to the sales of the products during that time period.
Will it be enough to offset the people that are leaving for other games systems entirely?

I wonder how far the 'pre-trade embargo surge' will figure into it? Considering what the big internet retailers have been saying, maybe GW should bring in a new embargo every week

Warhammer Fantasy was launched too during this reporting period right? From the internet grumbling (I am not a Fantasy player so don't know)----it seems like it was somewhat rejected by players. Wonder how that will affect the report.

I don't believe in internet grumbling. The people I know personally who play fantasy seem to have really taken to 8th.

I don't think this report will be too bad. As mentioned, there will be two new codicies worth of sales reflected as well as a holiday season and pre-price raise boost. Of course, the last two are true every year so they might not have as big of an effect. The true indicator of whether the recent GW BS will affect sales will be in the jan '12 report.

I think that it will be positive for the previously stated reasons.

It might not be so bad for them in January as well. With not only the Necrons and Storm of Magic, but also with the Sisters of Battle getting a White Dwarf Codex. This might be a move to making the Sisters more "affordable". That might get some players picking them as their first army or as am additional army. Of course, that's just speculation of the more wishful thinking variety.

I expect that their sales volume will be about unchanged but revenue will be higher.

I also expect that GW will underperform the broader market 7% increase Jan-May 2011.

The fact remains they are losing customers. Whether they are moving to other systems or quitting all together for various reasons. I was a DE player. The new models, while beautiful, did not bring me back in.

Of 25 to 30 players that were here in my area 8 years ago, I know of 3 that remain. I live in an area barely touched by the recession. So you tell me, what says more about GW's health?

rich1231 wrote:European retailers at least, were given significant extra credit in May and encouraged to use it, also the pre embargo and price rise surge was very large. It will make the Qtr's figures look great. However GW are obliged to mention these factors in their release.

That is as close to channel stuffing as you can get and still remain legal and not only is it a dubious policy at best it also has the problem of magnifying issues that arise the following qtr or so.

Ouze wrote:It's the one after this I'm really curious about.

This. As KK said, the next 6-month update (Jan 2012) will be extremely telling, I think. We'll see the effects of the "embargo", the finecast, and other recent changes. I wonder if that one will be doom and gloom. (I would vote Doom and Gloom, unless something extremely positive and unforeseen from GW occurs in August-November).

sourclams wrote:I expect that their sales volume will be about unchanged but revenue will be higher.

I also expect that GW will underperform the broader market 7% increase Jan-May 2011.

Interesting - I am expecting to see revenue remaining as is with potentially a distinct split between US (going down) and ROW (slight increase). I think the BL arm will be higher and I am very curious as to the royaly/ licence paid and received line. With revenue remaining as is, and taking into account price rices, I am expecting volume to have gone down. The GP margin should remain stabilish in comparison to last year but I am cannot remember when the move to one man stores happened exactly - but I am very very curious to see the impact on revenue per store in comparison to the prior year.

Rumors of a price hike boost short term sales so if that time frame is covered they will probably have a positive report.

I want to see the next one.

Guys, profits and sales numbers are silly putty in a savvy corporation's hands. I would always expect the report to be 'rosier' than the real situation. This doesn't mean that it will be completely misleading, but nor would I expect 100% honest accounting in negative scenarios...

MajorTom11 wrote:Guys, profits and sales numbers are silly putty in a savvy corporation's hands. I would always expect the report to be 'rosier' than the real situation. This doesn't mean that it will be completely misleading, but nor would I expect 100% honest accounting in negative scenarios...

don't bother. People on this forum always try to talk like they know anything without even basic knowledge of economics or accounting.

I mean, its evident from the available answers already.

Positive sales growth does not mean a good report.

nor does negative sales growth mean a bad report.

Now if we were talking about profits, and not sales, that would be a different story.