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JohnHwangDD wrote: they're still hanging in there.

Pokemon, Yugio and Magic pay the rent.

I wouldn't call 'hanging in there' a positive assessment for a business. It's a very short step from hanging on, to falling off. But I see your point. Historically card shops have always done well in the US, even when they're just sports cards and the like, with no real incentive to return once you have the current season's worth of cards. It's even possible that the current paradigm will change and GW won't be necessary for the majority of the indie's to be successful. But right now, GW is what makes the difference between successful, and profitable.

The current business plan of a new release every 3 months does a lot more for brick and mortar stores than it would seem. Not only does it drive margins for GW, it drives margins for their retailers. In a business that is predominantly hand to mouth, a 'boom' every quarter is like manna from heaven. More than once I've witnessed a new GW release save a store from going under; preorders can pay the rent during off weeks, and the actual releases can pay to restock more than just the GW wall. M:TG has much the same results.

The real advantage GW has is intial draw. Well painted miniatures in the display case catch more eyes than a bunch of words and pictures printed on cardboard. TT wargames are also better attention-getters than a series of card games. The terrain alone peaks interest, especially among the teenyboppers, more and more of whom can't be bothered with 'all those words'. At the most extreme, GW product can be used in OTHER ways than dictated by a rulebook. What else can you use a card for? Bookmarks...... hmmm not the biggest draw for somebody put off by reading.

As for the person who said that saying hi to a customer doesn't mean anything, grow up. When you walk into a well-run convenience store, you are greeted IMMEDIATELY, same as with any small store. Not only does acknowledging patrons help decrease theft (by letting people know that you're aware of them), it helps with sales (by letting people know that you're aware of them, AND they're important enough to your business to be acknowledged). Once a business has been in operation long enough, the operators learn who their regulars are, and what their habits and wants are. People in a new environment tend to be shy; Saying hello helps break the psychological barriers people have in approaching strangers and generates opportunities for dialogue. All this from a simple two letter, one syllable word.

scuddman wrote:No one in their right mind buys from the US online store. It's service is inferior to other competing places like the warstore, and the prices definitely don't match up.

I'm such an ass that I bought 1500 bucks worth of stuff from the GW online before I realized how much I would have saved if I was smarter.

I think cards is a bit more varied than it used to be. After the big card crash in the early 2000s, I've seen stores rely a bit less on card income. Not to say it's not there (my FLGS runs Magic events all the time), but there's a lot less variety in the card market. Hell, I'm impressed that Legend of the Five Rings is still around.

I think it's spot-on about GW being bread and butter. When I asked my local game shop today about the new tiered system, the response was, "We haven't heard about it yet, but we'll do whatever it takes to be in the top tier." They sell and promote other games, but they know that GW is where the money is.

Lordhat wrote:

JohnHwangDD wrote: they're still hanging in there.

Pokemon, Yugio and Magic pay the rent.

I wouldn't call 'hanging in there' a positive assessment for a business.

The current business plan of a new release every 3 months does a lot more for brick and mortar stores than it would seem. M:TG has much the same results.

Saying hello helps

In today's economy, "hanging in there" is pretty darn positive. Look at the automakers or empty storefronts if you don't believe me...

WotC perfected the release schedule with just one product line (MtG), whereas GW has 4 such lines:
- 40k
- Apoc
- WotR
- WFB
You'd think GW would be golden...

Too bad GW's redshirts don't stop at "hello", but lauch directly into the hard sell...

JohnHwangDD wrote:

Lordhat wrote:

JohnHwangDD wrote: they're still hanging in there.

Pokemon, Yugio and Magic pay the rent.

I wouldn't call 'hanging in there' a positive assessment for a business.

The current business plan of a new release every 3 months does a lot more for brick and mortar stores than it would seem. M:TG has much the same results.

Saying hello helps

In today's economy, "hanging in there" is pretty darn positive. Look at the automakers or empty storefronts if you don't believe me...

WotC perfected the release schedule with just one product line (MtG), whereas GW has 4 such lines:
- 40k
- Apoc
- WotR
- WFB
You'd think GW would be golden...

Too bad GW's redshirts don't stop at "hello", but lauch directly into the hard sell...

Well, yes they pretty much ARE golden. At least we pay prices like they are.
And if you think about it, GW only has one product line as well: miniatures. All the differences are comparable to the different sets that M:TG puts out; Slightly different rules and implementations, same basic product.

And I agree, indiscriminant application of the hard sell isn't proper customer service. However I thought we were discussing the Indie shops? I've yet to see an Indie give every customer the 'full court press' every time. TBH I've yet to witness this even once at an indie.

JohnHwangDD wrote:
WotC perfected the release schedule with just one product line (MtG)

+ Dungeons and Dragons
+ D&D Minis
+ Star Wars RPG
+ Star Wars Minis
+ d20 Modern
+ Maple Story CCG
+ Avalon Hill Boardgames
+ Duelmasters

This isn't counting a number of product lines that they've let die in the recent past.

WotC definitely has more than one product line. They're also more different between them than GW's games.

Right, but WotC straightened out the Magic 3/yr release system prior to acquiring TSR, back when Magic was pretty much all that they did. Early Magic was kinda haphazard and unstructured in expansions (e.g. Antiquities, Legends) Then they got serious and started planning stuff, locking in releases tied to particular sales quarters.

Now, if GW could generate similar predictability, and have the discipline to follow it, that would actually be a good thing for them.

Wait, wait, hold on for a second.

what does this mean? I'm 14, so a beardling like me is easily confused by his wise, long-bearded elders.....

Spoke with GW US( oops, GW North America!, forgot that we absorbed Canada. Are they like the 51st state now?): This change is not affecting the business relations between GW and independent stores in North America. It's a UK/EU change only.

Until they see how "well" it works (it is all relative, of course, so that clearly depends on what side of that particular fence that you're on!) and then roll it out here?

Possibly not though, given how differently GW's 'official' retail models are between the two countries.

So you get to breath a little bit longer until they guess how to implement the change in the US without stepping to many toes.

M.

I'm glad that Maelstrom Games UK has an actual storefront - in Nottingham no less!

I've been hearing something about this bouncing around for a while now, I'm surprised they haven't rolled it out sooner.

JohnHwangDD wrote:Right, but WotC straightened out the Magic 3/yr release system prior to acquiring TSR, back when Magic was pretty much all that they did. Early Magic was kinda haphazard and unstructured in expansions (e.g. Antiquities, Legends) Then they got serious and started planning stuff, locking in releases tied to particular sales quarters.

Now, if GW could generate similar predictability, and have the discipline to follow it, that would actually be a good thing for them.

They initiated both in 1997. Mirage was the first really planned "block" in the sense that we now know them. TSR was bought that same year when it went under. Hasbro then bought Wizards in 1999 after Pokemon got big and proved what Wizards could do.

Miguelsan wrote:So you get to breath a little bit longer until they guess how to implement the change in the US without stepping to many toes.

M.

Based on forex shifts and trends, I figure the US has a while to go.

Most of GW's recent changes are tied to forex changes. GW Canada got killed because the Canadian dollar approached parity, killing all domestic GW sales. What slow in Canada doesn't know how to buy stuff from America?

And now, with the British pound still hovering near historical 5-year lows, they're seeing the same thing with Americans (and everybody else) buying from British mail order firms.

So GW needs to step on the British (international) mail order because GWUK doesn't fulfill to the US (or Canada) - that's what GWUS and GWOZ are supposed to do..

And whilst we're on the subject of Magic the gathering

mikhaila wrote:Spoke with GW US( oops, GW North America!, forgot that we absorbed Canada. Are they like the 51st state now?): This change is not affecting the business relations between GW and independent stores in North America. It's a UK/EU change only.

Mikhaila: thanks. I was worried about the FLGS I go to.

H.B.M.C. wrote:I'm glad that Maelstrom Games UK has an actual storefront - in Nottingham no less!

Good point. Stores that have a brick and mortar presence but do the majority of their sales online will likely come out on top. Relative to other brick and mortar stores (that don't do online sales) they will have a disproportionate amount of sales and will likely be bumped to higher tiers for it. GW can't track what fraction of a stores sales are online and what fraction is walk-in sales.

The big question for me is: will stores like The War Store and Maelstrom Games get cheaper, more expensive, or stay the same? Or do we even know at this point?

Well more expensive, because GW is doing another one of their price-increases-that-they-give-a-different-name-like-adjustment-or-realignment-or-something-because-they-don't-have-the-balls-to-just-say-price-increase, so that'll hit every store regardless of any discount they have now.

It'll come down to a comparative thing. The Tactical Squad box will go up in price 40% in June at both places - GWUK and Maelstrom - but the Maelstrom price will still be 10% cheaper than the GWUK price.

The sad part is what will probably happen is that with this price adjustment/realignment/not-an-increase-honest-why-would-we-at-GW-lie-to-you is that the discounted Maelstrom price may end up being more expensive than the current GWUK price ie. GW will adjust/realign/totaly-not-an-increase their prices so much that current discounts will end up chargning more than current prices.

Holy God, 40%? Is that just UK or is that across the board? I have been teetering on the age of being priced out of the hobby for a long time now - I just can't hang with a 40% jump, I got bills, and pen and paper rpgs are so much less expensive...

£18 to £25 (if true) is around a 40% increase (just below I think - 38.8889%), assuming I'm not a complete idiot.

I wasn't debating the numbers, just curious as to whether this 40% jump was the ballpark figure for all the price increases.

We don't know really. The reported increase is 66% for Guard Squads (compared to the 20-man box).

Jive Professor wrote:Holy God, 40%? Is that just UK or is that across the board?

UK-only, of course.

Right now, a standard GW squad box set is 18 GBP and $35 USD. When USD:GBP forex rates stay in historical range of roughly 1 GBP = 2 USD, then the boxes are $36 USD (GBP), which is basically the same as $35 USD. There is no rational reason to grey market import tactical boxes from the UK to the US, because the price is basically the same. Any advantage in shop discount is cancelled out by increased shipping costs.

However, over the past 6 months, the GBP has dropped like a stone. The current exchange rate is more like 1 GBP = 1.5 USD. That makes that very same squad box $27 USD (GBP), which is about 30% below the US price. This is plenty enough margin to encourage grey market imports to undercut GW US operations. For the prices to return to parity, the British price needs to be more like 24 GBP.

Now GW has a few options:
- lower the US price down to below $30 USD ($18 GBP)
- raise the UK price to above 24 GBP ($35 USD)
- split the difference at, say, $33 USD & $22 GBP

This being GW, naturally, they raise the price in the UK, and add on an extra pound for good measure, "just in case". This kills the grey market dead and allows GWUS to again capture the overwhelming majority of US sales.

If GW were foolish and also bumped the price on the US prices, to say, $45 USD, then they no longer have the advantage of stemming the grey market because the box is $36 USD (GBP) vs $45 USD, for a 25% premium to buy in-country.
____

As a homework problem:

This situation will only hold until the GBP rises or the USD falls back to the historical 2:1 ratio. At that point, the boxes will be:
$50 USD (GBP) vs $35 USD.

Who can guess what GW will do when that happens...
____

For extra credit, explain why GW Canada was folded under GW US shortly after the Canadian Dollar reached parity with the US Dollar...

Wow, I never really thought about the weird business world that GW exists in. They're nothing compared to any other worldwide company, but they're way bigger than a mom & pop outfit.

JohnHwangDD wrote:Right now, a standard GW squad box set is 18 GBP and $35 USD...<abridged for convenience>

That's an interesting and believable hypothesis you have there J.H.

How does that theory work with Imperial Guard Infantry Squads, what's the $US price for 10 and (OOP) 20 man boxes? They're £12 and £18 respectively BTW.

No one knows anything about the price increase yet.

40% is just as believable as 3%, 98% or62%. It's a number someone pulled out of their butt, just like all the other guesswork going on.

It's all guesses. In two weeks you can all go back to buying (or not buying) miniatures, or possibly the price soars, you all quit the game, and I go out of business.

No one knows at this point. Guesses.

But please, this is the internet, don't let this post stop anyone from jumping to conclusions.


And yes, I'm getting burnt out by GW annoucing an increase, then deciding not to let anyone know until the last minute.

The old (20-man) IG boxes are standard squads for $35 USD, priced just like 10-man Tacticals (18 GBP / $35 USD), so they follow the pricing "logic" above.

The new (10-man) IG boxes are the new standard $22 USD for small boxes. 12 GBP is $18 USD, which is also underpriced relative to $22 USD (14+ GBP), but not as badly (about 20% pricing disparity).

But then again, the new $22 USD boxes are proportionally less of a rip-off than the 12 GBP boxes...

For comparison, if you look at the 5-man SM Combat Squad, it is/was priced at $25 USD, which is roughly 2:1 relative to 12 GBP, and would have the same problem as the old 18 GBP / $35 USD squad boxes.

brockb1 wrote:a couple of things.

stopping online discounters from selling gw products will not hurt the company, the customers who do not have a flgs can simply buy from gw's site which has the highest profit margins of any of their outlets.

second, anything that will help legit flgs is good for the hobby. online discounters don't run demo games for new customers, or host leagues and tournaments to promote the hobby. I must say i get a little peeved when i see people I know buy all their stuff online playing every friday night at the store!

third, if you don't have enough room for at least a demo table let alone some gaming tables and a paint station you probably aren't selling much gw product to begin with.
Most game stores problems aren't with a lack of ability to do the things GW wants but a lack of desire and effort. It amazes me what a difference getting off your butt to say hello to a customer can make

You make one giant error which colors all of your arguments: you assume that demand for GW figures is inelastic, ie. that demand will never change based on price.

To your first point, does GW make more money selling 3 boxed sets to an online retailer, or two from a brick and mortar store? Currently they charge both stores about the same amount (to my understanding from glimpsing the pricing catalogue at a store.) I say 3 to an online store because people's buying habits change significantly based on price, and rarely linearly.
For example, the Warstore had a Black Friday sale last November. I dropped 400$+ on stuff I only just put together these past two months, mostly IG stuff I was thinking I might make, and some black reach sets, and a MESS of drop pods. I don't even like playing my marines, and I didn't have a guard army at the time (but hey, baneblade!), however since I figured I might have a use for the things before I had an opportunity to save 35% or so on the price, I bought a truckload. Similarly I bought out a bunch of clearance Rakham stuff because it was cheap. If I had to pay full price, I would be much more likely to limit my purchases, not only because I feel as though I might get a better price in the secondary market, but because the satisfaction I would get per dollar from say 2 tanks is less at 50$ a tank than it is for 3 tanks at 35$.
Online stores with good discounts move piles of inventory. That is good for GW, and good for gamers.

Your second point relies on the notion of inelastic demand based on the notion that there is a finite source of new players, and that is random folks walking in off the street who can be enticed into a demo game.Where did you get the idea that gamers never get friends to play, or that people find things themselves on webpages (such as Dakka... or the WarStore where I learned of 100's of other games) or even video games (I started 40k due to Dawn of War. I HATED the look of GW stuff when I was younger). There are infinite ways to get people hooked on your product, and most likely having them stumble into it in a game store is not the best way.

Thirdly, tying gaming space to purchases is obviously false, considering you pointed out that people play at your store after buying everything online. Again, the answer isn't to force people to buy product where they don't want to (I would buy a LOT less if I had to rely on my local game store's inventory and pricing, and would have to go to the store with more selection, even though I never want to play there.) Telling people they can't buy online means they will buy less, as obviously already they decided not to buy at the local store.

People always try to control other people's actions to get them to do things "for the good of X", but it never works. GW chasing away their internet sales base is not going to put more sales in the hands of GW's site (laughable as it is) but into eBay and grey markets.