Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

 Thadin wrote:
Let's give it a shot, huh? 1500pt lists

Spoiler:

Lumineth vs Kruleboyz. Lumineth took first turn. No doubles.
[spoiler]
Battle Regiment, except for the Loreseeker.
Allegiance: Ymetrica

Leaders
Alarith Stonemage (130)
- General
- Command Trait: Almighty Blow
- Artefact: Mountain's Gift
- Lore of the High Peaks: Voice of the Mountain
Avalenor, the Stoneheart King (415)
Scinari Cathallar (145)
- Lore of Hysh: Protection of Hysh
Scinari Loreseeker (170)
- Lore of Hysh: Total Eclipse

Battleline
5 x Alarith Stoneguard (120)
- Stone Mallets
5 x Alarith Stoneguard (120)
- Stone Mallets

Behemoths
Alarith Spirit of the Mountain (375)

Kruleboyz list

Spoiler:

Allegiance: Big Waaagh!

Leaders
Killaboss on Great Gnashtoof (200)*
- General
- Command Trait: Battle-lust
- Artefact: Amulet of Destiny (Universal Artefact)
Swampcalla Shaman with Pot-grot (125)**
- Universal Spell Lore: Ghost-mist
Swampcalla Shaman with Pot-grot (125)**
- Universal Spell Lore: Levitate
Murknob with Belcha-banna (115)**
- Artefact: Arcane Tome (Universal Artefact)
- Universal Spell Lore: Flaming Weapon

Battleline
10 x Gutrippaz (180)*
10 x Gutrippaz (180)*
10 x Gutrippaz (180)*

Units
6 x Man-skewer Boltboyz (240)*
- Reinforced x 1
3 x Man-skewer Boltboyz (120)**

Core Battalions
*Battle Regiment
**Warlord

[/spoiler]

Victory; Kruleboyz

You know this is actually pretty fun to try and predict.

 NinthMusketeer wrote:

Spoiler:

My bet is on kruleboyz; there is significant enough MW shooting to snipe the lumineth heroes and kruleboyz in general don't care as much about hit penalties. But I would still say it's a relatively fair matchup, certainly wish I could have seen the game.

You know this is actually pretty fun to try and predict.

Yep, thats why pre/post tourney list breakdowns in podcasts/youtube shows are my favorite. I think I enjoy it more than any actual tourney footage.

Well, figured that was enough time to see if ERJAK would respond.

Kruleboyz did infact take the win. Just about right there Ninth, the mortal wound output was strong from my side, and the Cow Mountain shooting wasn't able to put enough hurt on to my Boltboyz units. Single shots are pretty swingy, it turns out! Then, I had Avalenor neatly tied up by my tanky Killaboss. 3+ base, with All out defense and mystic shield and 5+ FNP to wear down what little of those -1 rend hammer attacks actually got through.

But the interesting thing I took away from this little thought exercise, came from posting it elsewhere.

Another community I posed the question to, just to widen the results, almost unanimously thought that the Lumineth side was going to win, citing the Cow shooting being able to take out the boltboyz more easily, the Gutrippaz being unable to really stand up and take hits vs the twin cows, and unable to really do any damage.

In the end, I think I got quite lucky with my Kruleboyz. The mortal wounds were in my favor, able to pump out 14 mortals alone on the default Alarith spirit from one of my Kruleboyz squads on a Big Waagh turn (3 attacks each, 5+ to mortal wound, should have only got aprox. 10 mortals through, so, above average but not an insane result). On top of that, I found it quite easy to maneuver myself to consistently gain Battle round tactics, every turn, I think only missing one of them when I got too over-eager and tried to Kill the General, but didn't pour everything in to it.

That does sound like a good game that could have gone either way. Do a rematch, if it goes down the opposite way that'd be real funny

When I do analysis on who I think is going to win I run it through my stat trackers to get the overall estimated outputs of both sides.

When I do that, in the campaigns I have run in the past, the results were usually pretty reliable.

They arent ever going to be 100%. But you can usually tell if army A has 20% or more output than Army B, that Army A is going to win hands down always unless the player for Army A makes a ton of mistakes and/or Army B's player is just leagues ahead in skill / dice luck.

If the outputs are within 20% of each other, the dice luck and player skill / mistakes become even more important. Over 20% and the person with the higher output can make several bad mistakes and still come out on top barring congruent horrid luck as well.

My problem stems from there shouldn't be lists that have 20% or more output in a balanced point system in the first place - hence the need for houserules.

Yeah, no one is denying that games CAN be won or lost in the list building phase. Thanks for sharing that data though, an approximate 20% breaking point is interesting. I thought it seemed low at first but was forgetting to factor in the compounding benefits as the game goes on.

 NinthMusketeer wrote:
Yeah, no one is denying that games CAN be won or lost in the list building phase. Thanks for sharing that data though, an approximate 20% breaking point is interesting. I thought it seemed low at first but was forgetting to factor in the compounding benefits as the game goes on.

Yeah thats my threshold of acceptability and where abouts I started seeing games being auto results.

Auticus, have you looked at, or are aware of the website - aoslistbot.herokuapp.com/analyzer ?

It's a website that takes the plain text output from Warhammer Community's Warscroll Builder, and using some statistical magic I know nothing about, compares it to other lists within the same faction, and against the overall environment of AoS.

I'd be interested to see how it compares to your own methods of judging lists.

Not too sure how well it's kept up with 3.0 just yet either.

 Thadin wrote:

Another community I posed the question to, just to widen the results, almost unanimously thought that the Lumineth side was going to win, citing the Cow shooting being able to take out the boltboyz more easily, the Gutrippaz being unable to really stand up and take hits vs the twin cows, and unable to really do any damage.

Hmm.
1) For the cows, I think they way over estimated the effect of those mere two d6 damage shots per round. You miss once or twice, or roll low for the damage, or the target gets lucky & makes some sort of save.... Or you're out of range/LoS...
2) I don't think they understand the use of the Gutrippaz. If they won't be effective vs the cows? Then the only reason you roll against the cow twins is if you must. Like if the cows charge them.... Or it's some Hail Mary play. They will be effective against those elf character models & 2 dinky squads though.
3) I assumed that the Kuleboyz would win the game by taking out the two squads & elf characters & just staying away from the cows while claiming objective points.

 Thadin wrote:
Auticus, have you looked at, or are aware of the website - aoslistbot.herokuapp.com/analyzer ?

It's a website that takes the plain text output from Warhammer Community's Warscroll Builder, and using some statistical magic I know nothing about, compares it to other lists within the same faction, and against the overall environment of AoS.

I'd be interested to see how it compares to your own methods of judging lists.

Not too sure how well it's kept up with 3.0 just yet either.

I was not aware of that but thanks for pointing me to it. I haven't updated my software since fall of 2019 so mine is pretty out of date now but I would have loved to do side by side comparisons.

ccs wrote:

 Thadin wrote:

Another community I posed the question to, just to widen the results, almost unanimously thought that the Lumineth side was going to win, citing the Cow shooting being able to take out the boltboyz more easily, the Gutrippaz being unable to really stand up and take hits vs the twin cows, and unable to really do any damage.

Hmm.
1) For the cows, I think they way over estimated the effect of those mere two d6 damage shots per round. You miss once or twice, or roll low for the damage, or the target gets lucky & makes some sort of save.... Or you're out of range/LoS...
2) I don't think they understand the use of the Gutrippaz. If they won't be effective vs the cows? Then the only reason you roll against the cow twins is if you must. Like if the cows charge them.... Or it's some Hail Mary play. They will be effective against those elf character models & 2 dinky squads though.
3) I assumed that the Kuleboyz would win the game by taking out the two squads & elf characters & just staying away from the cows while claiming objective points.

I find it difficult to avoid deathballs/big stonking scary units using the GHB2021 missions. The objectives are typically center of the board, and if you're not attempting to contest all of them, you're fighting a losing battle off the bat. You have to engage the middle, so far from what I've experienced.

Edit: Besides double turn still existing, the missions are my only major complaint, as they skew things towards monster mash in the middle of the board.

I feel like that is a result of how durable hero-monsters are. Really, even the likes of a tough hero on a monster should be dying if they roll up the middle of the board exposed. But they don't, and players know it.

And often they can take as many as of those things as they want.

Less models to paint / transport.
Powerful / easy to use.

The game lends itself to that. Its basically been turning into a form of marvel super hero game with the option to use an army if you feel like it but its not required.

Well, speaking of making Hero-Monsters stronger, GW confirming that Wards and Negate Wounds stack, today.

Verminlord Warpseer, coming back at ya with 3+ 5++ 5+++, 10 bravery for easy wound healing each hero phase, and ready access to priests for Heal prayers.

GW what is you doin

edit: and in the same round of FAQs they completely removed Sylvaneth's Ability to teleport...

Well I mean I guess you should just shelve the older armies and buy the new armies that the faq broke. I heard horrors are super busted right now? Guess its time to buy a new army!

 auticus wrote:
Well I mean I guess you should just shelve the older armies and buy the new armies that the faq broke. I heard horrors are super busted right now? Guess its time to buy a new army!

Actually it is the older armies the FAQ broke, and the FAQ just fixed horrors.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Thadin wrote:
Well, speaking of making Hero-Monsters stronger, GW confirming that Wards and Negate Wounds stack, today.

Verminlord Warpseer, coming back at ya with 3+ 5++ 5+++, 10 bravery for easy wound healing each hero phase, and ready access to priests for Heal prayers.

GW what is you doin

edit: and in the same round of FAQs they completely removed Sylvaneth's Ability to teleport...

My local community will still be playing with one roll max to negate a given wound since that is the obvious RAI here and the FAQ is to address abilities like Mannfred's negate-first-wound-per-turn.

I expect both that and the Wyldwood are the same simple oversights they will fix within the next two weeks.

Actually it is the older armies the FAQ broke, and the FAQ just fixed horrors.

Thats good if you keep your older armies on the shelf. Now they are busted so you can rotate them back into play.

If you're like a lot of guys that just sell off every year - you'll need to rebuy!

I think you are really stretching things here to suit a specific narrative.

I dont know that I'm stretching. Its the typical annual these-things-are-now-broken-so-rotate-what-you-will-be-using (either bring off the shelf what was once shelved or buy whats now currently hot and busted)-and-shelve-or-sell-what-is-no-longer-good. You either have whats busted now on a shelf and can pull it for reuse, or you dont have anything on your shelf that is busted so must obtain whatever is new and busted.

Off-topic, but it might be time to delete that webpage in your signature, auticus.

Sent me to a weird place, definitely not anything related to a 3rd string wargame.

 auticus wrote:
I dont know that I'm stretching. Its the typical annual these-things-are-now-broken-so-rotate-what-you-will-be-using (either bring off the shelf what was once shelved or buy whats now currently hot and busted)-and-shelve-or-sell-what-is-no-longer-good. You either have whats busted now on a shelf and can pull it for reuse, or you dont have anything on your shelf that is busted so must obtain whatever is new and busted.

It's obviously a mistake. We even have Sam Pearson saying on Twitter he's bringing it to the attention of the dev team. GW meant to let Mannfred have his 1-per-turn negate on top of a ward and other rules of the like, not give every hero with a ward save an extra one. Tournaments aren't even going to let that fly.

 nels1031 wrote:
Off-topic, but it might be time to delete that webpage in your signature, auticus.

Sent me to a weird place, definitely not anything related to a 3rd string wargame.

Thanks. I can't see my signature on here, but yeah my old conquest site went offline so whatever it is now - my apologies.