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Orlanth wrote: However there is an expectation that speculators in major banks can make high risk bets and expect to keep their winning if they win and pass on all losses to the taxpayer if they don't.
That greed gets peoples backs up, with good reason.
Of course it gets people's backs up. Its an easy narrative with a readily identified villain. Which is exactly why people are so quick to latch on to it, even when it isn't accurate and won't stop the next crisis.
The problem came because regs could not keep up because of massive scale corporate lobbying.
Look at you just making stuff up out of the blue. Most of the stuff I'm talking about isn't even legislation but professional standards. You think Jack Abramoff was there, taking the IASB on private jet junkets?
This is so silly.
Bankers add non-stocks into tranches for easy profit, went all in due to corruption and greed and bet the house on them.
I spent actual time out of my life to explain to you the scope of the derivative market, and here you are still thinking derivatives just means CDOs. Please stop. You really just do not know the slightest damn thing about this and pretending you do is only going to stop you learning.
It doesnt matter what cards you draw the hand after you are all in and lose. You need money to buy pork bellies.
The derivative can fix the price for you, meaning you remove the risk of pork belly price fluctuation from the performance of your bacon supply business.
Plenty of people could read the signs, plenty of people counterlobbied for regulation, or ran shorts or recommended people keep a hand in apocalypse stocks. But none of these voices were heard over the lobbying that called for statis or even further de-regulation.
The debate was entirely focused on what that regulation should be. And it was a good faith, reasonable debate, the need to record exposures balanced against the very real consideration that badly designed requirements could place companies in to technical insolvency when they were still in reality going concerns.
Are you so divorced from reality you don't understand that because some people put up prices because they have to others will because they can.
You appear entirely unaware of the concept that the rate of inflation can, in addition to going up, also go down.
If those delegates or members were denounced as cranks by the majority you would still have a point.
But these delates were not denounced by any other delegates and appear to speak for the majority.
No one said 'Prince Charles doesn't speak for us'.
Also it was not just Prince Charles saying these things, it is echoed by others with more power, and they were not denounced as fringe either.
No, seriously, the Great Reset came from Prince Charles' conference, which was just a name given to his general brand of 'yes, capitalism but with everyone being nicer' nonsense. But crazy people on the internet decided to be crazy about it, because that's what they do, and now here we are.
You manage to get it wrong even when you try reductio ad absurdem. That takes 'skill'.
Mass casualties in an advanced nation from a simple relatable and entirely normal cause. And it happened before in 2003.
You think the point at debate is whether it sometimes gets really hot? You think the fact that it does sometimes gets hot enough to kill people is some kind of killer revelation?
What are you doing?
The early 90's had other problems. Saddam for one.
But the information age was in its infancy.
Corporate feudalism was not possible then, it is entirely possible now.
Yeah, okay. I'm done. I mean this is too much, even for me.
“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”
Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something.
U.S inflation hit 7% in December, the highest since 1982. I was born after that date so we've now reached an unprecedented level of inflation from my perspective, completely uncharted territory. I wonder what the next benchmark year is (I think the seventies were very bad in the UK, to the point where the government rationed electricity electricity and instituted a four day working week and mass unemployment afflicted us, which was all somehow tied to runaway inflation, and vice versa, iirc from my reading)
Miners strike, oil embargoes due to middle east conflict and political fallout, major bombing campaigns from the IRA, and reciprocal armed intervention in NI (and vice versa), and a recession in 1974.
Hence, Punk became a thing.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2022/01/12 15:58:44
Please excuse any spelling errors. I use a tablet frequently and software keyboards are a pain!
This is way outside my area of expertise, but the US in the 70s had a double whammy of inflation coupled with high unemployment. I'm pretty sure unemployment is more or less under control as of right now, and if Omicron is as mild as it so far appears to be, it probably won't cause the huge spike we saw earlier in the pandemic.
Orlanth wrote: However there is an expectation that speculators in major banks can make high risk bets and expect to keep their winning if they win and pass on all losses to the taxpayer if they don't.
That greed gets peoples backs up, with good reason.
Of course it gets people's backs up. Its an easy narrative with a readily identified villain. Which is exactly why people are so quick to latch on to it, even when it isn't accurate and won't stop the next crisis.
Except it was true, and you are in denial.
It wont stop the next crisis because the lessons have not been learned.
The problem came because regs could not keep up because of massive scale corporate lobbying.
Look at you just making stuff up out of the blue. Most of the stuff I'm talking about isn't even legislation but professional standards. You think Jack Abramoff was there, taking the IASB on private jet junkets?
It's left to 'professional standards' i.e. a free-for-some, even if not a complete free for all. This is because legislation was kept out by lobbyists,
I spent actual time out of my life to explain to you the scope of the derivative market, and here you are still thinking derivatives just means CDOs. Please stop. You really just do not know the slightest damn thing about this and pretending you do is only going to stop you learning.
I live it when you get triggered and try the please stop.
Why stop when I am making sense.
It matter less what other portions of the market exist beyond CDO's when that portion of the market is able to collapse the deck.
As mentioned earlier in this thread, greed and corruption in some portions of the market destabilised unrelated industries.
It doesnt matter what cards you draw the hand after you are all in and lose. You need money to buy pork bellies.
The derivative can fix the price for you, meaning you remove the risk of pork belly price fluctuation from the performance of your bacon supply business.
Again you fail to grasp elementary logic. When you are all in and have lost your hand i.e when you have run out of money; you cannot take advantage of other business opportunities.
The 2008 crash caused so many people and businesses to lose their money it doesn't matter as much if derivatives secure prices of material assets.
Plenty of people could read the signs, plenty of people counterlobbied for regulation, or ran shorts or recommended people keep a hand in apocalypse stocks. But none of these voices were heard over the lobbying that called for statis or even further de-regulation.
The debate was entirely focused on what that regulation should be. And it was a good faith, reasonable debate, the need to record exposures balanced against the very real consideration that badly designed requirements could place companies in to technical insolvency when they were still in reality going concerns.
Good faith debate is all pointless if bad faith lobbying makes and progress impossible.
Are you so divorced from reality you don't understand that because some people put up prices because they have to others will because they can.
You appear entirely unaware of the concept that the rate of inflation can, in addition to going up, also go down.
In global markets yes, in accessible retail rarely if at all.
My point remains though, which you kindly edited down to take my comment out of context. You claimed that ijnflation was driven by scarity rather than greed (paraphrased). I counter that while scarcity might cause some prices to rise, others will rise due to opportunism.
If those delegates or members were denounced as cranks by the majority you would still have a point.
But these delates were not denounced by any other delegates and appear to speak for the majority.
No one said 'Prince Charles doesn't speak for us'.
Also it was not just Prince Charles saying these things, it is echoed by others with more power, and they were not denounced as fringe either.
No, seriously, the Great Reset came from Prince Charles' conference, which was just a name given to his general brand of 'yes, capitalism but with everyone being nicer' nonsense. But crazy people on the internet decided to be crazy about it, because that's what they do, and now here we are.
Klaus Schwab should be listed as the author if any individual. Though in reality it is a collective effort, hence why it was a theme for the Forum. Prince Charles was just the venue host for the years' conference..
Please grow up and replace 'crazy people' accusation with 'people who chose to read the official WEF material and took it at face value'.
Like I said, this was not hidden in any way, this was focal and this wasn't denounced as fringe by the WEF. So it's not a crank conspiracy, not with the Who's Who of financiers and political leaders that make up the WEF backing it.
Yeah, okay. I'm done. I mean this is too much, even for me.
Have fun.
n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.
It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion. By the juice of the brew my thoughts aquire speed, my mind becomes strained, the strain becomes a warning. It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion.
I think alot of what Sebster points out is that these crisis are the financial market 'functioning as intended', from the point of view of the financial institutions. Therefore these are a natural state and should not be interfered with.
I think I remember him defending that a corporation should be able to be legally treated as a person, however I could be wrong on that one.
It is difficult for me to argue with Seb though because his knowledge of the inner workings of finance and related talking points seem to be well practiced. I don't have the vocabulary to dispute what is claimed without committing alot of time to responding.
For example, the finance sector successfully lobbies against legislation and instead promote professional standards (self regulation).
Orlanth points out there is a legal problem, Seb claims there is a professional standards problem deflecting attention away from the fact that the professional standards problem is a legislative problem. Implication is that the legislative bodies should take no action.
I usually enjoy Sebs analysis and breakdown of financial situations: it is usually his conclusions (or implications) I disagree with.
I hope I made enough sense, that took longer than I wanted it to.
I still stick to my guns that there is a legal problem, and lobbying has passed this down to self regulation, which is de facto exploitation.
I see the global and regional market as like a tide, it ebbs and flows.
When the tide is coming in there is a buoyant economy, people make money. When the tide is coming out there is a shortage of monies and a recession.
To financial institutions this may be the system working as intended.
But I challenge the intent.
I am convinced that the tidal cycles of economics are intended to enrich the monetarists at the expense of everyone else. The so called 'good times' are there to encourage spending, rather than long term planning, the hard times are there for bankers to reap what others have sown.
The tide comes in the people produce, the tide goes out, the bankers take. Everything is expected to be on credit and when times go hard the true harvest occurs.
n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.
It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion. By the juice of the brew my thoughts aquire speed, my mind becomes strained, the strain becomes a warning. It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion.
Economic and legal systems are always going to run into problems when they don't exist under the assumption that any time wealth can be centralized, it will be centralized. The wealthy have always attempted to hoard as big a piece of the pie as they can, even acting against their own long-term interests to do so.
the global microchip shortage that's throttling industry,
FTFY. . . . I mean, yes, don't get me wrong, what you wrote about it throttling the auto industry is true. But, you also cannot get PS5s pretty much anywhere. A coworker and I were talking at work, apparently he'd read some tech article saying that Sony was firing up the PS4 lines again, and starting to produce them again, because there's surplus stock available, and the chips needed aren't necessarily the ones we're short of. The chip shortage has hit the cycling industry as well, which has affected not only the groupset makers who want to push the electronic shifters, but the bike manufacturers who cannot assemble bikes without A groupset, let alone an electronic shifting one.
Prices of graphics processor cards, I'm sure many of us have noticed, have been going up. Especially anything that is "good" for crypto mining (which happens to be desirable for pretty much any gaming rig). Heck, where I work, some of the aging testing machines we cannot replace as General Motors wants us to, because those companies cannot get the chips to make their testing equipment.
Couple the chip shortage with a container shortage (well, we're not exactly short containers. . . its just that they are all in the wrong places), and we get a major slowdown of goods being moved. My dad is a golf club fitter (the PGA has some fancy name for it, but alas I forget) and he was telling me how because oceanic shipping is so slow, many golfing kit manufacturers are using air freight services as they are cheaper to fly than to put on a ship at this point. And, not because its raw numbers cheaper than putting it on a boat, its the high level complicated maths used to determine a timeframe in which a made item, if unsold becomes a net loss on the profit/loss statements (ie, if it isn't turned into revenue soon enough). My dad's got one company's stock order double ordered at this point. Basically, he's had a set of stuff on order (and stuck in a container ship) for so long, that that company air freighted him another order of the same stuff, just to keep the lights on (iirc, it was a bunch of grips, which he tends to move a LOT of. . . like, generally top 5 income for that company levels of moving product).
In my local area, we're also seeing major disruptions due to the numerous "atmospheric rivers" that keep hitting us. Since christmas, the western/most populous side of the state has been hit with a ton of snow, followed by a ton of rain and flooding. Last weekend ALL of the mountain passes were closed. Alarmingly, the only other "main" route to move large volumes of goods via tractor-trailer was also closed due to the flooding we were seeing. This lack of moving goods has caused major draw downs in levels of service to nearly all grocery stores. Shelves have been sparse to bare of many erstwhile staple goods. Unfortunately, the pessimist in me only sees THAT getting worse over the coming years, but alas that is another highly charged subject, and not really in line with this thread.
I do think that with some things, such as at the root of the chip shortage, the big businesses will need to focus their efforts to ensure an economy keeps moving. . . That means chip makers will need to likely focus on the companies providing the tools that keep businesses open, rather than focusing on consumer goods. I mean, one of the big problems that I personally see in the auto industry, is that it really is peak US consumerist policy: It is get a new (or new to you) car every 2-4 years, whether you need it or not. Then, at the dealerships, we kept the "cream of the crop" and wholesaled off the rest. Now, most of those whole sale units end up next door at the used lot, they'll put a bit of money into em, flip it to a customer, who will then be back at my dealership paying out of pocket for us to fix the things we originally thought too expensive to fix. . . . But now, people are being forced to sort of realize that what they got is pretty OK, and so they are spending more to fix what they got, rather than trade in/ move on. Even in the parts game (where I work) prices have been steadily increasing, and availability of even "dumb" items (I am referring here to pure mechanical, no electronics of any sort) is getting worse, and then costs to get things quickly are going up up up.
The chip shortage has hit the cycling industry as well, which has affected not only the groupset makers who want to push the electronic shifters, but the bike manufacturers who cannot assemble bikes without A groupset, let alone an electronic shifting one.
Manufacturing is fair enough, but I can't help but think that part of the chip shortage issue is stuffing microchips into every sodding thing, regardless of whether they're needed or not.
I look at crap like the 'electronic picture frame' my parents got over the holidays (which runs on Android, because of course it does), and the traditional picture frame they got at the same time and just sigh. Mostly because the second one is done and up on the wall, and the first is still sitting around on a table because it requires yet more devices and a tutoring session (and several refresher courses as they forget what I explained to them last time).
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2022/01/14 04:55:11
I think this thread is a very good example of science versus humanities. It's great that you can explain that these horrible economic problems are fine because that means the system is working as intended. But to me that means the system is inherently bad and should be replaced. Just because a system works does not make it a good system. And where does this leave the average person? Struggling to get by and stuck with overburdening financial difficulties that are increasing year on year.
The people who don't see an problem are the ones that the system benefits.
To me the only benefit I see is that the more people are actually impacted by these issues, the more likelihood there is for a successful change. Although as is always the case, the lack of critical thinking means that when the blame for these issues is foisted off on to something else, then the fat, bloated system survives another day.
Olthannon wrote: I think this thread is a very good example of science versus humanities. It's great that you can explain that these horrible economic problems are fine because that means the system is working as intended. But to me that means the system is inherently bad and should be replaced. Just because a system works does not make it a good system.
This. System that is designed to suck money out of bottom 99% and transfer them to 1% maybe is well designed, well running, and working as intended, but unless you're in that top 1% (or work for them as paid propagandist, maybe) the defence of it is pretty insane take. It running well should be considered a bad thing, not a good one.
To give some perspective on said system, according to various estimations, 5 to 6 trillion dollars are hidden in various freeports, tax havens and other hidey holes thanks to tax system demolished by lobbyists - enough to end world hunger, give everyone on the planet free university education, and renew global infrastructure twice over. Benefiting everyone except people so insanely rich they can burn a truck full of money every single hour of life they have left and still not run out of money. Instead, the money languishes hidden to not give even a tiny portion of it to the less fortunate, doing nothing except acting like real life game high score the rich psychopaths can brag to their buddies about.
In the 70s, when the rich were properly taxed, up to 90% to discourage frivolous waste of money (with tax breaks for actually beneficial spending) the proceeds from it funded landing on the moon, development of personal computers, internet, and cell phones. Now? Compared to just 50 years ago, we live in hellish dystopia, making mockery of prediction of scientists back then that the rise in worker productivity will mean we will have good, prosperous lives working 5 hours 4 days a week, a 20 hours workweek. The money for that is there, it's just being stolen from us.
In the 70s, when the rich were properly taxed, up to 90% to discourage frivolous waste of money (with tax breaks for actually beneficial spending) the proceeds from it funded landing on the moon, development of personal computers, internet, and cell phones. Now? Compared to just 50 years ago, we live in hellish dystopia, making mockery of prediction of scientists back then that the rise in worker productivity will mean we will have good, prosperous lives working 5 hours 4 days a week, a 20 hours workweek. The money for that is there, it's just being stolen from us.
Nobody ever believed the 20 hours a week nonsense. People would just work 2 jobs and double their income if they could live on 20 hours. Lots of people do 50+ hours because they have financial goals to achieve.
The US government has been collecting about 17% of GDP in taxes since the 1950s regardless of the marginal tax rates.
Why is this? Basically you can only tax the rich so much before you incentivize them to find (or make, thanks lobbying) loopholes in the system. That 90% tax rate (which ended in 1962 and dropped to 70%, then 50% in 1982) didn't move the needle on government revenue at all. Also, the top 40% are the ones paying all the net taxes (taxes minus stuff you get back from the federal government). See below video:
Being rich means having options, like moving money overseas, legal structures and tax strategies to reduce your overall burden. Or just being educated about the tax system in general, as most people have no idea that they have options that they could be taking advantage of.
I live in Canada, and you'd be amazed how many people don't put money in RRSPs. It's an tax rebate (usually around 30%) on money you save for retirement, where it can grow tax free until you pull it out. I have lots of co-workers who could be doing this (as in, they can afford to!) but they simply DO NOT and it frustrates me to no end! Save money for retirement and GET MONEY BACK FROM THE GOVERNMENT.
It will come around in the end. The longer the wealthy push back their reckoning, the harsher that reckoning turns out to be. That's always been how it plays out.
NinthMusketeer wrote: It will come around in the end. The longer the wealthy push back their reckoning, the harsher that reckoning turns out to be. That's always been how it plays out.
Usually it takes people to be starving before it reaches that point. There's been a few logistical hiccups leading to some bare shelves in some states, but it'll take a widespread famine in the USA (dust bowl scenario) before you see a sharp correction. I'd rather not go that route.
Some of the tech monopolies need to be broken up for sure, and the banking/financial sector needs tighter regulations (lots of countries have tighter financial regulations and somehow do just fine), and holy smokes do we need some actually independent media in the west...but keep in mind we are at peak wealth/living standards/technology in all of human history. Capitalism isn't perfect, but we don't have a better system (yet). All we can do is keep tweaking the rules of the game.
Easy E wrote: The end of civilization is only three meals away....
That works for dogs, but people are hardier than that.
They can take a lot more, however unless they see an external threat they may collapse for less.
n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.
It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion. By the juice of the brew my thoughts aquire speed, my mind becomes strained, the strain becomes a warning. It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion.
Re-reading the thread title, I was hoping we were getting a new Daniel Mersey blue wargaming series book...... I do enjoy me some of the other Rampant series.
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Easy E wrote: Re-reading the thread title, I was hoping we were getting a new Daniel Mersey blue wargaming series book...... I do enjoy me some of the other Rampant series.
I always get a laugh from those books, considering another use for “rampant”. Makes “rampant inflation” a great euphemism.
I did back the Rampart KS, and due to rampart inflation I did get a lot less than the last time around for my money.
M.
(I'll see myself out)
Jenkins: You don't have jurisdiction here!
Smith Jamison: We aren't here, which means when we open up on you and shred your bodies with automatic fire then this will never have happened.
About the Clans: "Those brief outbursts of sense can't hold back the wave of sibko bred, over hormoned sociopaths that they crank out though."
My wife visited our local dollar tree yesterday and all prices are now $1.25. I texted my friend to see if he had his football pads and was ready to cut his hair into mohawk style ala Mad Max.
privateer4hire wrote: My wife visited our local dollar tree yesterday and all prices are now $1.25. I texted my friend to see if he had his football pads and was ready to cut his hair into mohawk style ala Mad Max.
An appropriate response, if not the only appropriate response
I've been house hunting for the last year and half and man, its absolutely brutal out there. With 50% down and a VA home loan, I thought I was in a good place, but I was sadly mistaken. Getting outbid by all cash buyers at every. single. turn. is getting very discouraging. I might have to wait this one out.
GrosseSax wrote: I've been house hunting for the last year and half and man, its absolutely brutal out there. With 50% down and a VA home loan, I thought I was in a good place, but I was sadly mistaken. Getting outbid by all cash buyers at every. single. turn. is getting very discouraging. I might have to wait this one out.
How's everybody holding up in this malaise?
One piece of advice I've seen crop up in today's insane market is to actually ditch the VA loan. . . Apparently, despite the guaranteed money involved in the deal, the sellers' realtors see "VA home loan" and are basically telling their clients "yeah, that's going to be a pain in the arse, and will take forever"
If possible, are you able to secure a cash loan, with the aim of a year or 2 down the line refi into a VA loan? (honestly, I only know how it works from a fresh purchase, so no idea if you can use a va home loan to refi)
privateer4hire wrote: My wife visited our local dollar tree yesterday and all prices are now $1.25. I texted my friend to see if he had his football pads and was ready to cut his hair into mohawk style ala Mad Max.
In the UK we have a store called Poundland. Everything was a pound. Went in last week and they had stuff for £12. World economy has entered the apocalypse, time to fire up the V8.
it's the quiet ones you have to look out for. Their the ones that change the world, the loud ones just take the credit for it.
GrosseSax wrote: I've been house hunting for the last year and half and man, its absolutely brutal out there. With 50% down and a VA home loan, I thought I was in a good place, but I was sadly mistaken. Getting outbid by all cash buyers at every. single. turn. is getting very discouraging. I might have to wait this one out.
How's everybody holding up in this malaise?
I've basically given up on ever buying my own home. Toronto is far too expensive, but I can't leave the city because the wife needs to live here to work (she's a store manager at a big mall up here, and wouldn't get paid nearly as much if we left the city). Rent is too high to save anywhere near as much as we need, and paying back my student loans is a noose around my neck for the next 10 years. So... yeah, pretty boned lol.
It has finally hit home for me. My block of cheese was £1.70 last week, £2 today. Sickening percentage rise. I dread to look at the fancy cheese. Christmas looking bleak if luxury cheese is off the menu.
I just went and purchased a new car because of the lunatic fuel prices around me.
For the past week+ they have been jumping 15-30 cents per gallon, each day. Was out this morning and saw some gas stations already at 5.50 per gallon.
Now, I know/realize that the europeans on this forum who pay by liter are already used to 6+ bucks per gallon (when you convert it over to freedom units), but I'd bet that y'all are also feeling the squeeze on your end, and perhaps even worse given the historical "normal" place yall get your crude from.
Ensis Ferrae wrote: I just went and purchased a new car because of the lunatic fuel prices around me.
For the past week+ they have been jumping 15-30 cents per gallon, each day. Was out this morning and saw some gas stations already at 5.50 per gallon.
Now, I know/realize that the europeans on this forum who pay by liter are already used to 6+ bucks per gallon (when you convert it over to freedom units), but I'd bet that y'all are also feeling the squeeze on your end, and perhaps even worse given the historical "normal" place yall get your crude from.
Yeah. average petrol price in the UK at the moment is £1.67 a litre, or $7.87 per US gallon.
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