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Err, that was responding to what Deitpike said.

I don?t think the quote feature likes me.

I didn't see this rise coming. I've been eyeing the stock for a little while and was just about to pull the trigger. I liked it a lot better at 260 than 325. But smaller stocks like GW are pretty volatile, so it's still liable to dip again even if the trend is up.

If you look at the daily movements, the rise in stock price actually started a couple of days *before* the accounts were released to the general public! Now it could be coincidence, but am I the only person who smells the aroma of poisson in the air?

Another possible reason for a spike in the stock price is because people may be anticipating GW being acquired by another company.
Ominous....

Osbad thats usually the case when there is news (good or bad).  Insider trading limitations are joke.

Posted By Stu-Rat on 07/25/2006 2:50 PM
torgoch said:
I still think they lack a buy-in game; something like 40K 'warbands' or 'confrontation' has to come eventually.
They have a buy-in game. Several, in fact. They just don't support them. At all. Ever.

Which games do you mean?

<?  

When I say ?buy-in?, I mean something that will act as a game in itself, but will allow components to be re-used in larger games. Rackham?s fantasy system is a good example, in that the components can be used in both Confrontation and Ragnarok, two different games, albeit based on the same core mechanics. You buy a Confrontation force, and if you like it, you can expand it into Ragnarok. Of course Rackham suffer from having an all-metal expensive line, but the concept is sound.

 

Games Workshop don?t really have this kind of ?entry-level? or ?buy-in? position game. They have ?Combat Patrol?, ?Skirmish? and ?Kill Team?, but these are merely variations on the rules-set of 40K and WFB, and neither rules set really works at that model level. Neither can these be said to be ?products? in themselves.

 

?Necromunda? was closer to a ?buy-in? product, in that one box set was could constitute pretty much a working force, but Necromunda didn?t lead into 40K, in the same way that Confrontation leads in to Ragnarok. The factions are all different.

 

Such a game could have such huge potential, I am very surprise they haven?t done something like it.

They did pay lip service to the concept a couple of years back with the "40k in 40 minutes" idea.  But it never seemed to take off, except in one or two clubs (schools, for instance, where they meet at lunchtime)

Still fell a long way short of a complete game in the way you suggest, and I guess the idea of playing "40k lite" didn't seem all that attractive.

It's a good idea - I wonder why GW didn't do it? ... Ah!  It's a *good* idea!  'nuff sed!

Torgoch said:
Which games do you mean?

Necromunda and Mordheim. Both allow players to collect very small armies and increase them over time. Both can easily lead into 40k and WFB respectively.

But, of course, GW just ignores them. Their loss. I'll play a 350-point, $40-box game (with everything I need in it) of Warmachine, thanks.

Space hulk was another concept. A game like that you could sell via larger retailers as an intro.

I think GW originally thought that LOTR would, not only attract non-gamers interested in the minis only, but would also as an intro into the full range of GW games. I don't think that has happened.

Necromunda and Mordheim. Both allow players to collect very small armies and increase them over time. Both can easily lead into 40k and WFB respectively.

But, of course, GW just ignores them. Their loss. I'll play a 350-point, $40-box game (with everything I need in it) of Warmachine, thanks.

To be fair, GW produced 29 issues of supplemental stuff for Mordheim, including three new settings for the game and umpteen new warbands. How much more support is necessary? While pumping out new rules and warbands may sell miniatures, they also clutter and imbalance the game, and that pi$$es off players too.

Mordheim is one of my all-time favorite GW games. But I recognize that it had a life cycle like most products.

And like torgoch said, NM and MH don't directly lead into 40K and WFB.

so, they decide to listen to their customers, space out the releases, and, imho, bring out better looking models. Nope, people are still complaining, now the releases are too slow.

The real problem, I suspect, was actually GW's habit of only focussing on a single army.

When releases are too close together, you have too much that you 'have' to buy.
When releases are too far apart, and you're waiting for the next army, you have that much longer to wait.

The 'middle ground' is to keep the releases coming a little faster but stop focusing on one army at a time. They made a small move in this direction with Cities of Death, using it as an excuse for a swag of multi-army releases. If they could now just keep it up (since there are still plenty of missing models in the various codexes, or Gary Morley sculpts that need replacing) I think the fans in general would be happier.

From the Independent

"Games Workshop

GroupOur view: Avoid

Share price: 327.75p (+36.75p)2006 has been an annus horribilis for Games Workshop Group, the maker of table-top war games. The company's management will be hoping that yesterday's full-year results mark the nadir for the group. The figures showed Games Workshop recorded a 73 per cent slump in pre-tax profits to pounds 3.7m for the 12 months to 28 May. Largely to blame for the slump is what the group has described as the bursting of the Lord of the Rings "bubble". Games Workshop had invested heavily in a new game to be sold alongside the series of hit films based on JRR Tolkien's books. However, with the passing of hype surrounding the films, customers have deserted the group.Matters have been made worse by falling sales to smaller retailers in the US. Many have been forced to close amid growing competition from giants such as Wal-Mart.Meanwhile, ever falling prices of computer consoles must also be a long-term concern for the company as it is likely to prompt customers, mainly teenage boys, to increasingly shun its highly complicated games in favour of the likes of Lara Croft and the latest version of FIFA soccer.To its credit, Games Workshop managed to reduce its overheads by pounds 2.8m during the year and trading enjoyed an improvement during the spring. But it is not clear whether the company has really turned the corner.Although it will pay a dividend of 19p a share (leaving the stock on a yield of 5.7 per cent), this is not covered by earnings and will be paid by extra borrowings. With the company trading at over 35 times forecast earnings for 2007, its shares are best avoided for now."

From another article, "In the long term, the chief executive reckons the group should be able to achieve similar levels of sales penetration in each of its markets to those it currently has in the UK."Achieving this would at least treble the current level of our sales," he added.

Personally I think Kirby's insane if he really thinks he'll get the sales penetration they have in the UK, worldwide. 

>>Personally I think Kirby's insane if he really thinks he'll get the sales penetration they have in the UK, worldwide.

You only have to look at the numbers of players in the different national regions of the current Medusa V campaign to realise that UK based players are much more numerous or keen than other nationalities. The potential is there, but GW have been operating in the UK for over 25 years and built a strong retail division. If that's what it would take to get overseas sales to the same level, it is going to need a massive investment in new shops.

Wow. Fullheadofhair, you're entitled to your opinion, but if Bobske feels differently, I think suggesting his "priorities in life are definitely askew" is out of line.


Thanks Tinfoil.
But I meant all of the people posting here. If you are posting about the Sales Figures of the company you play games from than you are surely doing more tham just playing a game once in a while.
With my post I wanted to make clear that there is another way of looking at things as the replies of other posters show.
I just dislike people complaining and doing nothing about it.

Lots of people probably did something with there complaints and quit the hobby hence the drop in sales.
I like the hobby, which does not mean I like the way GW runs all things.

I didn't read past page 1.
Fire the coach not the team.
Thank you.

In the intro

"The decline in sales was expected, but it has been hard to project accurately the amount. Most of the decline is due to the trading cycles I spoke about last year - partly product cycles and partly channel problems."

" I believe there is now evidence that we are putting it right. The standards of service which built this company are returning."



I am afraid he believes what he wrote.

He follow about going for the long term grow instead of the short term share price manipulation which is a good thing

" is this still a growth business? The answer was a clear 'yes'"
" role play games, collectible card games (CCGs) and niche merchandise from fantasy movie imagery. Role play games and movie merchandise are in decline; CCGs can now be bought in mass market outlets which hurts hobby store sales."

So in 2 sentences GW sell less in a growing business and store close because GW products are not enough to sustain a store where their other products sell less except other miniature company products.


" Following the decline in sales, management faced three issues. Firstly, the need for all staff to be focused on the temporary nature of the decline."
but in sales by sector in the uk part
The decline in sales has impacted our own stores and sales to independent retailers by similar proportions
Again other stories about the decline being external to them but denied later

"Thirdly, over the same period, our traditional product stream became disrupted"
"As regards the third we are now engaged in the process of re-establishing our normal product life cycles."

Does it means that theyt will finally be putting less effort in LOTR?

"By the end of the year our Games Workshop Hobby stores in seven of our nine sales businesses, including both the US and the UK - our two largest businesses - were recording growth."
about europe
"however, the rate of decline had slowed significantly by the end of the year, with three of the five Hobby store chains recording growth in May 2006"

This means Tau selling were good and probably hide a much bigger downturn in sales.

in 2005
BL Publishing
"Our publishing business, which made sales of some £1.3m this year"
in 2006
BL Publishing
"Our publishing business, which made sales of £2.1m this year,"

Even more sales down hidden by a growth at black library


Just for those commentary the appear sometimes in forum that GW rise price because of oil pricing:

"Our annual energy bill amounts to some £0.9m. The cost of raw materials, such as metal and plastic, represents no more than 2% of our annual sales and has been relatively stable during the year. We do not believe that the price volatility of these inputs represents a significant threat to our long-term profitability"


Now who own GW and can make pressure on them

" No. of ordinary shares Percentage

Schroder Investment Management Limited 3,410,541 11.0
Fidelity International Limited 3,121,229 10.0
Phoenix Asset Management Partners Limited 2,890,294 9.3
Legal & General Group plc 1,722,583 5.5
Marathon Asset Management LLP 1,406,414 4.5
UBS Global Asset Management Limited 1,076,410 3.5
Aberforth Smaller Companies Trust plc 946,100 3.0

"


"one director is required to retire at this year's annual general meeting and is seeking re-election, namely T H F Kirby"
"Prior to joining Games Workshop, he worked for six years for a distributor of fantasy games in the UK and was previously an Inspector of Taxes."

Our chance to get ride of him there. No wonder He looks disconnect of reality after working for taxes :p
The other directors all have a financial background and none look the be the type of having climb in a gaming company.


" We are trialling a customer recycle initiative which allows customers to return their sprues for regrinding."
Never heard of that before

Posted By Stu-Rat on 07/26/2006 12:33 PM
Torgoch said:
Which games do you mean?

Necromunda and Mordheim. Both allow players to collect very small armies and increase them over time. Both can easily lead into 40k and WFB respectively.

But, of course, GW just ignores them. Their loss. I'll play a 350-point, $40-box game (with everything I need in it) of Warmachine, thanks.

How do either of those games particularly lead into 40K or WFB? Granted, both are set within Games Workshop narratives, but that in itself doesn?t constitute a lead-in game.

<?  

Necromunda factions have no equivalent 40K factions, so if you do pay for a Necromunda gang, there is no obvious route to transferring that investment into 40K. Mordheim is slightly better, in that Mordhiem models can fit into units in WFB or act as characters, but there wasn?t any attempt to integrate the two games. Furthermore, Mordhiem was off-putting in that i) you seemed to require a vast quantity of scenery to play properly and ii) the game?s campaign system was predicated on you having an on-going regular gaming group.

 

I still see this as a major problem for GW, in that you can?t go into their shops and spend thirty quid and have a workable force for one of their games. You don?t get a workable force in 40K/WFB until you have spent over £100. Now that?s good for GW, if customers are readily spending over £100, but isn?t so good for drawing in people with tentative interest, and excludes those with less cash. That?s bad. Often you find kids with less money to spend will become the most ardent hobbyists in the long-term, as its passion that keeps them going ? providing them with an entrance to the GW hobby is just as important as looking after those with richer parents.

 

Promoting smaller scale systems needn?t just be an ?intro-point? though. I?d like, for example, to pick up and paint a few specialist chaos marines and model them up as a warband. I?ll never play a chaos army in 40K, but if they had a couple of skirmish ?entry-level? games, then I?d be buying all sorts of odds and ends from both 40K and WFB armies. Eventually I?d build another 40K or WFB army around them. As it is, I don?t want to paint another whole army, a process I find monotonous, so I?m not buying GW stuff.

 

Space Hulk, interestingly enough, though not what I am thinking off above, was a good intro game, in that the figures were directly transferable. The amount of people who got into GW through Space Hulk, and continue to use the genestealers (hell, I?ve seen some people still using the terminators as librarians, look pretty good), is significant.

 

I?ve discussed the LOTR deal in some detail with a couple of very knowledgeable former employees. If I recall, there were serious issues in the contract GW signed with New Line, which effectively compelled them to treat it equivalently to their own intellectual properties. I?m pretty sure that meant staff were forbidden from using it to try to sell-on Warhammer products.

The LOTR contract was a bad idea. Anybody trying to go long term would have realized that. Stuck in a contract 2 years AFTER the movies that are the mjor lead in to your product is not a good long term plan. Not being allowed to make miniatures that can be used in one of your two flagship lines is even worse.

I still have all the genetstealers from Space hulk and the terminators. I use them for 40K whenever I call up tyranids or space marines (which has been a while). Heck, I might be pull them out for cityfight considering how much fun 2 heavy flamers would be with a teleport homer.

You know, I've been pondering the GW share price's rocket boosted rise and I just don't get it. It makes no logical sense especially in light of the financial statements.

Even if someone was planning on buying the company, the price would go up but not THAT much, especially as there hasn't been any public announcement or speculation.

The only idea I can think of is that it's a quick "snatch and grab", buy low, drive up the price and then dump it. But even then to get the shares that high would have to be a massive amount of co-ordination.

Just odd.

When that chart is looked at further out than the few months you first see, the drive up isn't that steep when compared to the massive drop in share value the past two years. I'd be willing to be that over the next few weeks it will cool off and slide back down again as those financials don't support the current demand. In my humble opinion, of course.

I think the share price will start to stabilise soon, or resume it's slow descent, as it looks like GW is an industry-leader in what appears to be a stagnant industrial sector.

This thread just got me to look at Hellfury's GW ticker. Can anyone tell me why the stock price just shot up to the previous six-month high during the last week?

Now I wish I had some stock in GW...

Because, checking over motley fool, despite all GW's problems, they are still are paying the same profits to their shareholders as well.....

Notice that GW had to *borrow* money to pay out those profits to their shareholders...

Notice that GW had to *borrow* money to pay out those profits to their shareholders...

I know. But if they didnt, you figure that upward swing would be a downward one.....

From a banking persepctive (and this time I'm not blowing smoke out the old wazoo), funding dividends with your liquidity facility is not something taken likely. No banker ever likes to see that, and it is frequently the cause for a credit rating downgrade if continued for any period of time. Now banks will look at deals specifically geared for this, but its usually connected to financial personalities we shouldn't be lending to  in the first place

 

But you do see this occur during downturn periods etc. Its the curse fo dividends and why small or cyclical companies typically don't give divdends.  Like Heroin, chocolate, or bad Star Trek re-runs, once you start them you can't stop or everything goes haywire.

Posted By torgoch on 07/25/2006 7:41 AM

Neither combat patrol nor Kill Team are products.

Games Workshop have this kind of dichotomy at their core, in that both they and gamers want to produce interesting figures, but currently the rules are for large armies of similar characterless models. A proper 40k 'warbands' game would be a useful intro point to the hobby, while giving people the excuse to really play around with their models and GW a reason to produce the moer characterful figures they hint at in the Demonhunters style forces

 

I agree!

A supporting, skirmish level game system that directly links to the core games would be a smart and timely move and an opportunity to flesh out the core imagery of their games and introducing more hobbyists. On top of that this kind of gaming/modeling would be easier to integrate to real life activities.

On top of that a more detailed skirmish game, but within the core games/real armies (so no necroumnda updated) is something I hear people dreaming about the most. I know it's exactly what I'm looking for.

I think you want to keep the basic rules pretty similar to 40k and WFB, however. I'd be wary of going down the path of Inquisitor, even if only a little.

So, why not a skirmish game involving existing armies and a similar ruleset...something around the scale of Rogue Trader. Heck, call it Rogue Trader! Then fill out the book with a whole bunch of different missions/scenarios. Here's the kicker...add in experience rules a la Necromunda and Mordheim. Then players can develop their units and characters a little, something which you can't do to a satisfying degree with 40K and WFB.

I'm sure GW doesn't see a future in skirmish games per se, and they're probably right. But they would serve as a good "gateway" game to the hobby, and let existing hobbyist try out new armies a unit at a time. Better yet, it'd let them take on their competition head on. They should be going after THEIR market share instead of letting them fritter away at theirs.

Posted By Bombot on 07/25/2006 7:29 AM
Revenue for the last six months was largely equal to the previous six, yet pre-tax profit went up from £0.1m to £3.6m. I don?t think Tom Kirby will be jumping out any windows soon.

Probably why the share price has risen. The full year results are irrelevant. The City already knows the first six months; they just care about the last six and the outlook for the future (if there is one).

This is the reason why share prices have risen.  It seemed pretty evident from the conference call that the company has done everything it can to control costs, and they are very excited about this years new releases, hoping to turn the corner.  The biggest problem with this industry is that it is shrinking, and holding onto the top competator in a shrinking industry can be dangerous.  The competition from FoW and PP is a pimple on GW bottom right now.  They have more important things to worry about like management quality.

One of the things helping the stock of late has been Kirby and other management buying up shares. Kirby now owns 6.1% of the company.

Kirby now owns 6.1% of the company.

Good. He might actually be motivated to do something useful now.