Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

 JNAProductions wrote:
You aren't assuming a Signum, a Captain, or a Lieutenant. Which are pretty damn common.

... unless those lascannons are not attached to a vanilla marine model.

Also, it doesn't really matter whether you factor in all those buffs when comparing two units or not. The relative difference will remain the same. MANz outperform all non-Death Guard terminator equivalents in survivability.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

SemperMortis wrote:

 Grotsnik1 wrote:

SemperMortis wrote:
Correct me if I am wrong

5 Lascannon shots x.666 (adding in the 1 shot at 2+ to hit) = about 3.5. Wounding on 2s (S9 vs T4) = 3+ wounds. -3 AP means 5+ to save meaning usually 1 saved at the absolute most so that means 2 Dead Meganobz since D6 damage = 3.5 on average.

Unless I am mistaken that means a single Dev squad armed with Lascannons just made back half their points in a single shooting phase and that is without all the craploads of rerolls that Space Marines always have. Throw in those buffs and it is easily 3 dead Meganobz a turn, and on top of that if you have a unit of 5 and you lose 3 you now have a 1/3rd chance to lose more to morale (1/2 if you kill the boss Nob).

My point is that they lack invuln and FNP saves organically and since they are both SLOW, easy targets and soft (no saves beyond their 2+) they become prime targets for enemy units with multiple damage weapons which tend to eat through that 2+ and 3wounds easy

Even though I agree meganobz need either a good discount or a good boost your maths fail when saying that a single d6 roll is a 3.5 so every wound is a dead meganob. If you get 2 unsaved wounds you have 1/36 chance of not losing any meganobz and 19/36 of losing just one, so thats a 56% chance of not losing 2.
5 lascannons shooting and rerolling 1s (one hitting on 2) is an average of 4.037 hits, and average of 3.93 wounds, 2.64 after saves.
So... the numbers here are not exact but thats around a 19% chance of losing 3, a 58.3% chance of losing 2, 21.5% chance of losing 1 and 1.2% chance of losing 0, on average with all the rerolls

Or on average losing 2 meganobz

Only if you assume that rolling somehow kills four meganobz despite only having rolled two dice.

"every wound is a dead meganob" is as wrong as it gets.

The key words are "Average"

And saying Meganobz are tougher then all terminators except one type isn't saying much since Terminators......suck

Average does not mean what you think it does.

The average damage to a meganob is (1+2+3+3+3+3)/6. Because you cannot ever deal 6 damage to a unit of meganobz with a single wound.

Therefore a d6 deals 2.5 damage to a meganob on average, which means 2 unsaved wounds result in one dead meganob on average.

If you base your argument on wrong math, your argument is wrong, too.

SemperMortis wrote:
And saying Meganobz are tougher then all terminators except one type isn't saying much since Terminators......suck

Except a list with 10 terminators in it has placed first in a GT.

 Jidmah wrote:
Average does not mean what you think it does.

The average damage to a meganob is (1+2+3+3+3+3)/6. Because you cannot ever deal 6 damage to a unit of meganobz with a single wound.

Therefore a d6 deals 2.5 damage to a meganob on average, which means 2 unsaved wounds result in one dead meganob on average.

If you base your argument on wrong math, your argument is wrong, too.

SemperMortis wrote:
And saying Meganobz are tougher then all terminators except one type isn't saying much since Terminators......suck

Except a list with 10 terminators in it has placed first in a GT.

Thats not how it works, you have to take into account all possible dice combinations with their probability. The math is tedious to explain but if you do it (I did) you will end up with this: if you roll N d6 damage dice you will kill 0.73 times N models with 3 wounds (meganobz in this case). E.g. if you roll 10 unsaved wounds with 10 lascannons you will probably kill 7 and some times 8 meganobz, or if you roll 100 d6 you will kill 73 (we can all do the maths at this point)
Look at my previous calculations regarding the devastators shooting and see that 2.64 unsaved wounds times 0.73 equals 1.927 dead models, which is almost the same result that I got there (0.19*3+0.583*2+0.215*1+0.012*0=1.951 dead meganobz).

Following your reasoning even a d100 D wouldnt kill a meganob on average as (again following your maths) it would be (1+2+3*98)/100 = 2.97 wounds, not enough to kill a meganob acording to your average, even though there is really only 2% chance that the meganob would live after that.

So both are actually wrong but Jidmah is making good point in that it's not average of one meganob per lascannon. Rolling 6 does not compensate for rolling 1.

If you have 56% chance to not lose 2 mega nobz to 2 wounds from lascannon then saying 2 dead mega nobz is average is not all that accurate...

 Grotsnik1 wrote:
Following your reasoning even a d100 D wouldnt kill a meganob on average as (again following your maths) it would be (1+2+3*98)/100 = 2.97 wounds, not enough to kill a meganob acording to your average, even though there is really only 2% chance that the meganob would live after that.

I guess that's true, but my previous math clearly shows that killing two MANz with two d6 damage rolls only has a 44% chance, so on average you won't lose two MANz to five lascannons.

tneva82 wrote:So both are actually wrong but Jidmah is making good point in that it's not average of one meganob per lascannon. Rolling 6 does not compensate for rolling 1.

If you have 56% chance to not lose 2 mega nobz to 2 wounds from lascannon then saying 2 dead mega nobz is average is not all that accurate...

My maths are if not absolutely correct, extremely close to the real average, and I already said that losing 2 MANZ to 2 d6 rolls is not average in a previous post.
Also, 0.73*2=1.46 so that average doesnt contradict that more often than not you will lose just one MAN to 2 d6D rolls

Jidmah wrote:

 Grotsnik1 wrote:
Following your reasoning even a d100 D wouldnt kill a meganob on average as (again following your maths) it would be (1+2+3*98)/100 = 2.97 wounds, not enough to kill a meganob acording to your average, even though there is really only 2% chance that the meganob would live after that.

I guess that's true, but my previous math clearly shows that killing two MANz with two d6 damage rolls only has a 44% chance, so on average you won't lose two MANz to five lascannons.

Sure, we agree on that, we both said so in previous posts. Sorry if i sounded rude, I was just making my point.
Notice that 0.73*2=1.46 confirms what we are saying too (of course the 0.73 average is more clearly shown when doing the maths with big numbers, but it still aplies to only 2 and shows that more often than not you will lose just 1)

So just to clarify on all the above, will the new Ork Codex include lessons on probability and an abacus/calculator?

Is kwite simple ya see. Each MANZ has a 1/36 of surviving two unsaved lascannon wounds (rolling a 1 on the damage roll twice in a row) 11/36 chance of surviving exactly one unsaved lascannon wound (rolling a 1 or a 2 on the first damage roll but not rolling a 1 after a 1 on the first roll) and a 24/36 chance of dying on the first unsaved wound (rolling 3+ on the first roll). 3*1/36+2*(12-1)/36+1*(36-12)/36=1,361

Multiply by two to figure out the average number of unsaved wounds to kill two instead of one.

2*1,361=2,722

It takes an average of 2,7 unsaved wounds to kill two MANZ.

The chance of surviving two shots (the damage of the third shot is irrelevant since it'll kill you regardless) is 1/36 (rolling a 1 on the damage roll twice in a row) and the chance of surviving at least one is (12-1)/36 (rolling less than 3 on the first damage roll but not rolling a 1 twice in a row), the chance of dying to the first shot is 24/36 (rolling 3+ on the first damage roll). 1/36*100=2,778% 11/36*100%=30,556% 24/36*100=66,666%

The chance of dying to the third unsaved wound is 2,8%.

The chance of dying to the second unsaved wound is 30,6%.

The chance of dying to the first unsaved wound is 66,6%.

If we want to figure out the chance of killing two MANZ with two damage rolls we simply multiply the chance of doing it once with the itself. 66,6*66,6=44,444%

The chance of killing two MANZ with two unsaved wounds is 44,4%.

Lascannons generally hit on 3+, wound on 2+, are saved on 5+.

5/6*4/6*5/6*4/1,361=1,361

Five lascannon shots will kill an average of 1,4 MANZ.

I don't have much experience with playing them I'm sure you feel like all it ever takes is one ^^

padda_the_hutt wrote:
So just to clarify on all the above, will the new Ork Codex include lessons on probability and an abacus/calculator?

It's fine if you just accept the conclusions

Statistics are pretty important when you are trying to do strategy in a chance-based game.

 Jidmah wrote:

padda_the_hutt wrote:
So just to clarify on all the above, will the new Ork Codex include lessons on probability and an abacus/calculator?

It's fine if you just accept the conclusions

Statistics are pretty important when you are trying to do strategy in a chance-based game.

Accepting the conclusions works fine for listbuilding and theorycrafting, but when you have to make strategic decisions during a game, understanding the math involved does help make better decisions. I say this as someone who doesn’t really have a grasp of statistics and can’t do the mental math with the amount of dice orks roll; having a calculator and a quick guide to the math on hand could seriously help me sometimes. I know Jidmah is mostly joking, but stuff like the argument over MANZ durability show how important doing the math really is for orks.

 gnome_idea_what wrote:

 Jidmah wrote:

padda_the_hutt wrote:
So just to clarify on all the above, will the new Ork Codex include lessons on probability and an abacus/calculator?

It's fine if you just accept the conclusions

Statistics are pretty important when you are trying to do strategy in a chance-based game.

Accepting the conclusions works fine for listbuilding and theorycrafting, but when you have to make strategic decisions during a game, understanding the math involved does help make better decisions. I say this as someone who doesn’t really have a grasp of statistics and can’t do the mental math with the amount of dice orks roll; having a calculator and a quick guide to the math on hand could seriously help me sometimes. I know Jidmah is mostly joking, but stuff like the argument over MANZ durability show how important doing the math really is for orks.

At the moment the answer is, Math is boring just take MOAR BOYZ! :(

biker Boyz points drop and either 5+inv or -1 to be hit, Dakkaguns ap-1
big shoota to have ap-1
killsaws to be flat 3 damage,
a fight twice stratagem,
An auto explode on vehicles stratagem
a disembark after moving vehicle stratagem
Unit being transported allowed to shoot overwatch from open topped vehicle (stratagem or just rules change)
stompa points drop and bs4 (mek targeting system or something) and supa gattler damage 2, built in inv save
Warlord trait that buffs strength or allows wound rerolls within 6
Deffkopta points drop
Ramshackle on all Ork vehicles
Burna Boyz d6 shots or still d3 but ap-2 shooting as well as combat

Haven’t done the maths on any of the above but is what I’d like to see

padda_the_hutt wrote:
So just to clarify on all the above, will the new Ork Codex include lessons on probability and an abacus/calculator?

I think this is one of those situations where the ork power of belief will come into play...

"you're charging that with those? don't you know statistically you're highly unlikely to-"
"WAAAGH!"
"I... ...how did you... WHAT?"

Who needs maths, just believe you can do it!

Every ork who successfully believed he wouldn't die didn't die. you'll never meet an ork who was wrong!

So by now, I'd say that most of us have heard/ seen the leaked warlord traits and noticed that there are 7 listed with the idea that freebootas are going to be the odd clan out and aren't really going to be a thing.
BUT: what if the freebootas got some sort of rule that allows them to ally with any (or a limited group of) one other faction in a list, while keeping the Freeboota clan powers and traits that have been leaked?
so for example, a Tau army consisting of a battalion and a Vanguard that are both T'au sept can take a detachment of Freebootas because they hired the orksd to help defeat a particular foe.

how does that sound?


Automatically Appended Next Post:
That way, tau can get some choppy dudes, and if necrons were on the short list (somehow) then they could get access to cheap bodies. Shoot, even if chaos or the imperium (except Crimson Fists of course) could take Freebootas, that could add some new tactics to the game. I can see it now: legitimate orky knights with all the gear and gubbins as the 'umies have.
Frankly, I only got into orks because my chaos army sucked so much in 7th, and I wanted lootas as a cheap alternative to Havocs. From there I fell in love with them.
Anyway, I think it would be an interesting way to incorporate the mercenary fluff of the Freebootas.

Side note* I Would also love to see the return of the looted wagon allowing a relative point discount to models from other armies to compensate for giving them BS5 and changing their weapons out to ork equivalents.