Catalan Indyref - Spanish police beat old women, seize ballot boxes, fire rubber bullets at voters.

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**welshhoppo**

There is a large Catholic population in Ireland.

The UK tried very hard to kill the Catholics off here centuries ago. And we weren't the nicest people to the Irish, we kind of let them die with the potato famine, and we had laws in place that demanded that any land giving to children be split equally between the sons. Meaning land would shrink with successive generations.

**jouso**

Lone Cat wrote:
Iron_Captain wrote:
jouso wrote:
BaronIveagh wrote:
AlmightyWalrus wrote:
Treason, sedition, conspiracy and the like are by nature political labels as they revolve around someone trying to attack the State. Declaring your own independent nation based on the result of a referendum with no binding power and loads of irregularities is almost textbook sedition. The courts would be derelict in their duty if they didn't at least charge Puigdemont.

In fact, I'd go as far as to say that even if Catalonia becomes independent following the vote in December they should STILL try him for sedition, because he's guilty as sin. The man's essentially performed a coup d'état by seizing powers he had no right to in declaring Catalonia independent. If Catalonia wishes to be independent then so be it, but Puigdemont clearly has no respect for the democratic process and, as such, must go.

The Catalans elected him when he ran on a platform that he would do pretty much exactly what he did. It was his entire platform. So where's the failure to respect democracy here?

He ran on a platform that would declare Independence if they got a seat AND a vote majority.

They didn't.

Also they passed a new electoral law without the needed majority (according to the Catalan Statute, which is their Constitution), they didn't follow it either.

The list is really long. A lot of it is in earlier posts.

Yeah, but I think it was also mentioned that the Catalan statute isn't really a fair piece of law and that independence movements have the tendency to not follow laws because laws usually prohibit independence. The statute was modified by the Spanish Constitutional Court to such an extent that a peaceful, democratic way to independence was virtually impossible for the Catalans (along with a whole bunch of other restrictions on autonomy, language and referenda). The statute is a Spanish law. You can't expect a Catalan separatist, who wants independence, to obey it. When some of the republics of the USSR declared independence in 1991, they also did not follow their own constitutions, which ultimately were tools of the Soviet government to keep them in line. Independence in most states is impossible to achieve through legal means. That is why expecting separatists to follow legal means and criticising them on that account is beating a dead horse. Of course they are not going to follow the laws! It only becomes possible for them to follow laws if those laws offer them a fair way to achieve independence, such as in Scotland or Quebec.
I am not saying that not following laws is good, but it is just what separatists do. Pointing that out is like pointing out to a thief that he is breaking the law. Of course he is breaking the law, he is a thief! Of course Puigdemont is guilty, just as guilty as George Washington, Boris Yeltsin, Mahatma Gandhi and almost every other independence movement leader in history. If you are dealing with an independence movement, you know beforehand they are going to ignore any law that is inconvenient to them. That is why engaging with them on legal terms is ultimately meaningless. In the end, you will have to deal with them either by giving them what they want or by trying to rob them of their power base, which in the sad reality of our world is mostly done through force, but which can also be done through economic or political means. Reminding them that they are violating the law on the other hand will just make them laugh, and trying to enforce laws and arresting them will just make them appear oppressed to those sympathetic to their cause, which will increase their power base.

TL;DR Separatists don't care about legality or elections or treaties or anything like that. All they care about is independence, and they will use whatever means they think give them the best chance of achieving that goal. All independence movements throughout history have done that. That is why pointing out that they are violating laws, their mandate, their election promises (wait, all politicians violate that one) is beating a dead horse. You know beforehand they will be going to do that, because they are separatists, and that is just what separatists do.

Even in case of what leads to American Civil War some 160 years ago... The Southern States tried some legal approach (and even claimed that the seccession is legal). but some incident leads to the armed conflict that dragged on for four years (and AFAIK the South almost won its 'War for Independence'... if they did indeed win. the war set in the USA between 1861-1865 will be called 'The Confederacy War for Independence' instead of American Civlil War.

What will catalonains do? what will they face is that a segregation by Castillian-based Government. and more Chinese will be invited to settle in Catalogina... because Chinese immigrants tend to obey the host government as well as willing to form their community. The contral government might use them against the rebellious natives... similar methods how Siam annexed Lanna some 160 years ago.

Catalonians can hardly claim segregation when they get to write the rules for most stuff happening in Catalonia. Catalan is the main language of education and government, all public radio and TV in Catalonia is in Catalan and so on. To the point that there have been a few claims to different courts from parents who wanted their children education to be in Spanish (so far the courts have sided with the Catalan government, though).

I'm not entirely sure what Chinese have to do with the whole thing, though.

**Lone Cat**

^ About Chinese solving Spanish Catalognia problem.... the Castillian-based government just can't churn out pro-Castillian population in time to counter Cataloginian secessionist. What else will the Castillian government suppress Catagolinian nationalism in long term?

Use foreign immigrants and give them citizenships... those chaps are more likely to support Castillian government agenda.

In addition. Xi Jinping supports the Castillian government and will NOT recognize Catalogina even if anyone else do.

Or not?

**jouso**

Lone Cat wrote:
^ About Chinese solving Spanish Catalognia problem.... the Castillian-based government just can't churn out pro-Castillian population in time to counter Cataloginian secessionist. What else will the Castillian government suppress Catagolinian nationalism in long term?

Use foreign immigrants and give them citizenships... those chaps are more likely to support Castillian government agenda.

You don't tell people (Chinese or otherwise) to go somewhere and live there for the purposes of colonisation. Much less hand out citizenships without due process.

Not in Europe at least.

That Xi Jinping hasn't recognized Catalonia is not surprising given that not even culturally Catalan Andorra has. Actually the only recognition has come from two equally unrecognised territories: Abkhazia and South Ossetia (both Russian satellites)

**Lone Cat**

1. And even if the Catalonian Revolution won (If castillian government did a big mistake that led to an open armed insurrection in Catalonia). Xi wouldn't be peased to see it. China itself has its own seccession problem. The Xinjiang and Tibet. (EDIT: Taiwan (who wished to regain its international recognition as a different 'Republic of China'... There were no armed conflicts between the two Chinas since 194x but the PRC has not yet recognize the RoC as a fully sovereign country instead of being a province), and Hong Kong...which 100 years of British Rule created Hongkong 'sense of nationhood'... Hongkongers speak Cantonese rather than PRC Chinese, through still recognize PRC-Simplified Hanzi.. there were political resentments against Peking 'Centralization' policy)
2. If Castillia-based government can't use Foreign Immigrants to dilute Catalonian influences there. (And genocide is not an option in the 'Civilized World'... especially in the EU). What else can the Spanish Government do to beat the seccessionist to the Ideology level (and in the long term... the success the UK and the USA enjoys).

And will the (Catalonian) language bans come back in use?

**jouso**

Lone Cat wrote:

2. If Castillia-based government can't use Foreign Immigrants to dilute Catalonian influences there. (And genocide is not an option in the 'Civilized World'... especially in the EU). What else can the Spanish Government do to beat the seccessionist to the Ideology level (and in the long term... the success the UK and the USA enjoys).

And will the (Catalonian) language bans come back in use?

Bans aren't coming back, that's for sure.

The Spanish govt needs to go on with the business of making Spain (inc. Catalonia) a nice enough place to live, where people can work and live in harmony with everyone else most of the time.

If a large enough number of Catalans still want to leave (and prove it in free and fair elections) they're free to go into the cold post-EU world.

**Kilkrazy**

Spain Catalonia: We may have broken the law - ex-minister Josep Rull

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-42293326/spain-catalonia-we-may-have-broken-the-law-ex-minister-josep-rull

**tneva82**

Well new elections were done. Voting % 83, 3 parties supporting independence got (narrow) majority. Not that it really matters as spain wouldn't let them go independent without a war even if 100% would favour it.

**jouso**

tneva82 wrote:
Well new elections were done. Voting % 83, 3 parties supporting independence got (narrow) majority

In seats, but not votes. Non-indy parties got 200.000 more votes than pro-indy, but again the electoral system rewarded the rural vote.

So it's back to square one. 47,5% of the votes get 51,8% of the seats, while 52,07% of the votes get 48,2% of the seats. Pro-indy wins in 2 of the provinces (the least populated) and pro-remain victory on the two bigger ones (on the last election it was 3-1)

On a single circumscription system the results would have been:

C's 35 (-2)
JxC 30 (-4)
ERC 30 (-2)
PSC 19 (+2)
Podem 10 (+2)
CUP 6 (+2)
PP 5 (+2)

Indy parties have a net lose of 4 seats, and since the majority is by a single seat....

Tells you a lot about making sweeping changes with such razor-thin majorities that can change any time.

**Kilkrazy**

IMO the correct course of action from here is for the pro-independence parties to attempt to form a government, then make a bill to conduct a new referendum on independence.

However, to be fair this referendum should require a substantial majority one way or the other, say 55:45, and this is unlikely so they probably won't make such a bill, and a narrow majority bill can be repudiated by the losers

So the crisis cannot be resolved.

**BaronIveagh**

Interestingly, though, it's generally being viewed in many papers as an Independence win, as the Spanish government apparently expected to receive a massive mandate against Independence instead of more or less a continuation of the Status Quo.

**welshhoppo**

BaronIveagh wrote:
Interestingly, though, it's generally being viewed in many papers as an Independence win, as the Spanish government apparently expected to receive a massive mandate against Independence instead of more or less a continuation of the Status Quo.

Maybe if Spain hadn't acted the way that it did that could be the case.

**Kilkrazy**

Yes, it's a win in the sense of not being a clear loss, and the fight goes on.

**jouso**

welshhoppo wrote:
BaronIveagh wrote:
Interestingly, though, it's generally being viewed in many papers as an Independence win, as the Spanish government apparently expected to receive a massive mandate against Independence instead of more or less a continuation of the Status Quo.

Maybe if Spain hadn't acted the way that it did that could be the case.

The PP has been voted down to irrelevance, but their votes have been picked up by others.

There are enough non Indy parties to choose from.

**tneva82**

Well fight was going on anyway. Independence movement is big enough it won't give up and spain isn't letting power and money leave short of anything but war even if they have to kill every catalian to ensure it

**BaronIveagh**

tneva82 wrote:
Well fight was going on anyway. Independence movement is big enough it won't give up and spain isn't letting power and money leave short of anything but war even if they have to kill every catalian to ensure it

At a (or so I've heard) impressive 92% turnout, they really can't downplay the size of the independence movement (though I'm sure some posters will try)

**jhe90**

jouso wrote:
welshhoppo wrote:
BaronIveagh wrote:
Interestingly, though, it's generally being viewed in many papers as an Independence win, as the Spanish government apparently expected to receive a massive mandate against Independence instead of more or less a continuation of the Status Quo.

Maybe if Spain hadn't acted the way that it did that could be the case.

The PP has been voted down to irrelevance, but their votes have been picked up by others.

There are enough non Indy parties to choose from.

They only managed to pass the buck as such.

The question of independence is still hovering. It might not be solid and taken form but the question remains. Ans still remains.

The Spanish government has not ended anything just yet.

**jouso**

jhe90 wrote:
jouso wrote:
welshhoppo wrote:
BaronIveagh wrote:
Interestingly, though, it's generally being viewed in many papers as an Independence win, as the Spanish government apparently expected to receive a massive mandate against Independence instead of more or less a continuation of the Status Quo.

Maybe if Spain hadn't acted the way that it did that could be the case.

The PP has been voted down to irrelevance, but their votes have been picked up by others.

There are enough non Indy parties to choose from.

They only managed to pass the buck as such.

The question of independence is still hovering. It might not be solid and taken form but the question remains. Ans still remains.

The Spanish government has not ended anything just yet.

Neither do Indy parties.

At some point they will have to realise they don't have the support they claim having and that they're supposed to, well, actually govern, as in provide solutions to their citizens problems instead of piling the blame on someone else.

**BaronIveagh**

jouso wrote:

At some point they will have to realise they don't have the support they claim having and that they're supposed to, well, actually govern, as in provide solutions to their citizens problems instead of piling the blame on someone else.

They tried governing. You remember, Madrid comes in, throws everyone out, looks like gestapo, everyone complains about how 'illegal' it was.

And, again, as I point out above, with a 92% turn out, and what amounts to an Indy Win, I'd say they had 'sufficient' support, since they're still a majority.

**jouso**

BaronIveagh wrote:
jouso wrote:

At some point they will have to realise they don't have the support they claim having and that they're supposed to, well, actually govern, as in provide solutions to their citizens problems instead of piling the blame on someone else.

They tried governing. You remember, Madrid comes in, throws everyone out, looks like gestapo, everyone complains about how 'illegal' it was.

No. They tried to do something they said they wouldn't do ("we will declare independence if we get a vote and a seat majority" you have the clip earlier in the thread). Then they twisted the law 3-4 times to pass a law they didn't have the necessary seats to do and then complain when justice swoops in. I could run on a platform that says I will remove Donald Trump from office, that doesn't mean I can deliver on that.

Again they don't have the vote majority (the remain majority grew from last vote), they don't have the seat majority for anything but the basic governing stuff (and if one of them gets sick, they lose it, unlike before when they had, IIRC, an 8-seat difference). What are they supposed to do? Keep running elections and sham referendums until they get the result they want out of pure voter exhaustion?

Can the Catalan economy withstand more of this?

Since Catalonia's independence vote, 2700 businesses have left
http://www.smh.com.au/world/since-catalonias-independence-vote-2700-businesses-have-left-20171130-gzwemp.html

(it's now over 3.000 btw)

BTW 83% participation, less than 48% of vote.

**AlmightyWalrus**

BaronIveagh wrote:
jouso wrote:

At some point they will have to realise they don't have the support they claim having and that they're supposed to, well, actually govern, as in provide solutions to their citizens problems instead of piling the blame on someone else.

They tried governing. You remember, Madrid comes in, throws everyone out, looks like gestapo, everyone complains about how 'illegal' it was.

And, again, as I point out above, with a 92% turn out, and what amounts to an Indy Win, I'd say they had 'sufficient' support, since they're still a majority.

They're a narrow majority in the Parliament because of how the election system works, in absolute numbers they're still fewer.

**Grey Templar**

But again, the idea of a independence movement needing to be legal doesn't matter. It's always illegal to declare independence.And they still clearly have a huge chunk of the population on ttheir side.

**AlmightyWalrus**

But, again, not a majority.

**jhe90**

Grey Templar wrote:
But again, the idea of a independence movement needing to be legal doesn't matter. It's always illegal to declare independence.And they still clearly have a huge chunk of the population on ttheir side.

They have ernough people and ernough percent of population to Madrid to have to at least consider the independence and other aspects.

Its a too big issue to ignore.

Yes Catalonia parliment has to also be a parliamentary system and work for them.

Both sides have things to work on.

**Iron_Captain**

AlmightyWalrus wrote:
But, again, not a majority.

Aye, and I am predicting that this stalemate is going to continue for quite a while.

**jouso**

jhe90 wrote:
Grey Templar wrote:
But again, the idea of a independence movement needing to be legal doesn't matter. It's always illegal to declare independence.And they still clearly have a huge chunk of the population on ttheir side.

They have ernough people and ernough percent of population to Madrid to have to at least consider the independence and other aspects.

How much is enough, though? Because the obvious answer to "we have 48% of people supporting Independence" is "what about the remaining 52%?"

Reverse the percentages and the answer is still the same. That's why Constitutional changes require reinforced majorities, there have to be limits to the executive power. Checks and balances.

The people at the otherwise regurgitated garbage of a rag ABC have made ran the results through different electoral systems.

Right side union, left side Indy. Top is current system, next two purely proportional (3% entry barrier) and single electoral district.

The following one is the German system (mixed district and global) and the last one is FPTP à la UK.

**Do_I_Not_Like_That**

Interesting article in The Guardian about the Catalan situation.

19 Catalan nationalists who were elected are either in prison, bailed, or in exile, with further arrests expected.

I wonder how the EU will react against political prisoners?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/23/catalonia-peace-stall-arrests-tensions-judiciary

two key passages stick out fro this article:

1.

Certainly the alacrity with which the justice system has responded to the Catalan crisis is in marked contrast to the glacial pace with which it is handling the hundreds of corruption cases involving members of the ruling Popular party.

2.

However, there is plenty of scope for political interference. The 20 members of the General Council of the Judiciary, which appoints most senior judges, are themselves appointed by congress and the senate. Members of the constitutional court that declared the Catalan referendum illegal are also political appointees. In the EU’s 2017 “Justice Scoreboard” Spain came third to last among 28 member states in terms of public perception of judicial independence, above only Slovakia and Bulgaria. Some 58% of Spaniards surveyed rated judicial independence as “very bad” or “fairly bad”.

I remember being criticised a few pages back for questioning the independence of the Spanish Judiciary...

I no longer have any reservations about its independence

**Whirlwind**

Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

I remember being criticised a few pages back for questioning the independence of the Spanish Judiciary...

I no longer have any reservations about its independence

Spain's democracy is only 40 years old in 2018. So it's not really a surprise there is still large amounts of independence concerns. It's going to take some time to get to a point where they follow the examples such as France and Germany.

**jouso**

Whirlwind wrote:
Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

I remember being criticised a few pages back for questioning the independence of the Spanish Judiciary...

I no longer have any reservations about its independence

Spain's democracy is only 40 years old in 2018. So it's not really a surprise there is still large amounts of independence concerns. It's going to take some time to get to a point where they follow the examples such as France and Germany.

Maybe if DINLT looked around and checked how supreme courts are appointed in other countries he'd realise it's pretty much the same all over the world.

In the UK they are appointed by the Monarch, under advice from the PM. How's that any different?

"fiercely independent". Judges are chosen exactly like in the German supreme Court, by a bicameral majority.

**Kilkrazy**

Judges have to be chosen somehow.