Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

I honestly have no idea what this means.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/10/13/trump-to-decertify-iran-nuclear-deal.html

President Trump announced Friday he will decertify the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, saying he believes the “radical regime” has committed multiple violations of the agreement as he kicked a decision over whether to restore sanctions back to Congress.

“I am announcing today that we cannot and will not make this certification,” Trump said during a speech at the White House. “We will not continue down a path whose predictable conclusion is more violence, more terror, and the very real threat of Iran's nuclear breakthrough.”

Friday's announcement does not withdraw the United States from the Iran deal, which the president called “one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into.”


But the president threatened that he could still ultimately pull out of the deal.

“In the event we are not able to reach a solution working with Congress and our allies, the agreement will be terminated,” he said. “It is under continuous review and our participation can be canceled by me as president at any time.”

Expect Iran to move forward with a Nuclear Weapon ASAP, as they have learned the lesson of Iraq and North Korea. You can not trust any deal made with the US on nuclear non-proliferation. The only safety you have against the U.S. is to have your own Nukes. Therefore, it must be a national priority to build said nukes no matter the costs. The U.N. Inspections will not help you, the International Community will not help you, your military will not help you. Your only chances is a credible nuclear response of your own.

Trump on the camapign trail said he wanted more Nukes in the world. His diplomacy is leading us in that direction. It is too early to tell if this is a good or bad thing.

By refusing to "certify" that Iran deal... Congress has 60 days to act, or the deal is dead. There's a bill already formulated, that would remedy many flaws in the original Iran deal. The challenge here is that not only Iran has to agree to a new agreement, the other 5 nations must agree too.

The bigger news, IMO, is the fact that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is now officially labeled as a terrorist organization, which opens up the Treasury Department to apply sanctions (ie, like Hizbella, and others...). The Guard is more than a military wing... they're also a business as well, so this'll hurt quite a bit.

*sigh*

So he wants to screw us all in service to his ego? Is that... news?

In fact the U.N. Inspectors will help Iran, cause the U.N. agreed to the deal and isn't going to just leave because of Trump. The International Community was overwhelmingly approving of the deal, and in fact will help because they Trump is already seen as an idiot by the parts of the world that can leverage influence on this. Iran in fact benefits from this more than ever because they get to keep the deal in all the areas that matter, while the US torpedoes its own diplomatic goals in service to a child. The best thing Iran can do, and will do, is keep going forward with the deal because it gives them not only everything they want but the added bonus of the US isolating itself diplomatically for no god damn reason whatsoever.

The UN has already approved the treaty, and the US alone can't undo it. The EU has already approved the treaty and the US can't undo that. Much like a bunch of other international events and agreements the current child in chief has blown off in marvelous displays of stroking his own ego, the US isn't actually needed for this deal anymore.

And all of that is assuming that Congress doesn't shove him the bird. As long as the deal was in place Republicans could reap all the benefits of having agreed to it while pushing all the blame for it on Obama, except even the Republicans (or enough of them) realize the deal was a good thing and now the child in charge is forcing the majority party to make a show of an in the bag political issue that can only hurt them come reelection season.

One flaw there lordy...

It's not a treaty.

Therefore, operationally if we do abscond from this agreement, we really don't know what would happen with the other nation's agreement. The other nations may be able to happily continue their relationship while the US restores sanctions (which would be a wee bit meaningless as it'd be like Cuba).


Automatically Appended Next Post:
EDIT: yup, the EU has reportedly stated they'll stay in the current agreement:

Press TV ✔@PressTV
EU Foreign Policy Chief Federica Mogherini gives presser on Trump's decision on Iran nuclear deal https://www.pscp.tv/w/bK-efzF6dkVOV0RMQVd5UWV8MU1ZeE5YbE13anlHd38P2fw-qDPjL18TUyR3PiHlITSv0lxGMuz02lbszdp7 …
12:31 PM - Oct 13, 2017

 whembly wrote:
One flaw there lordy...

It's not a treaty.

*sigh*

Your right. It's not a treaty. It's technically international law. All of international law basically is a series of treaties but fine. Semantics. United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231 was passed on July 20, 2015 followed the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action by the five permanent members of the Security Council six days earlier, and incorporated the JCPOA into the body of UN agreements, and while those agreements aren't "binding" no one is going to throw it out the window just because one of the countries who put work into it had a sudden personality disorder. Now the US can turn around and scream no at the top of its lungs, but the vote was already taken and passed and everyone else isn't going to just shrug and go home. You need the Security Council to turn around and pass another resolution which China, Russia, and France will not do cause they were all more than happy to get a resolution on the Iran issue when there are thousands of bigger fish to fry on an America to stick it to (and none of that has changed in the last two years), and if the permanent council members can't get a majority then it isn't happening. Alternatively the deal comes to an automatic close if Iran violates the deal, but while the US was throwing tantrums about how bad the deal was Iran was passing laws making it nearly impossible for their own government to back out so I don't think Iran is going to screw themselves on this one cause they seem pretty damn committed. The EU already showed their commitment to the deal by approving it themselves, even though they really didn't have to since they were all de facto party to the UN agreement, so they seem pretty committed.

The only country that has ever been noncommittal is the US, and I'm sure we're going to be bombarded by statements soon that "this is an unfortunate move but we are committed."

Congress still has oversight of the deal in the US per its treaty obligations, and I'm skeptical they'll go along with Trump given that he just handed them a barrel of monkeys but with none of the fun of monkeys and all the mess of monkey poo. It was a Republican majority house and senate that passed the deal in the first place and a lot of them are still there.

It's not "a wee bit meaningless". It is completely meaningless right now. The WP had a pretty good write up about Trump's approach and how many of his advisors advised against it. Basically, they convinced him to do what he did and make him think what he did was important, and he can sell what he did as important, but it on paper, means nothing until and unless congress does something with it. Kick that can to avoid the child picking it up and cutting themselves was the goal. Whether or not the rest of the world sees it that way remains to be seen, but I suspect having met the guy, they see how he operates on a TV level, and will give lip service to him but not really do anything either. It's a fascade, and everybody seems to see it but Trump and his supporters. Strange times.

A bit like his threatening of revoking NBC's liscense. He knows how the FCC works, he knows he has really no power over them. He knows how even if he could compel the FCC to revoke the ten station licenses they have in large cities, it really can't make a dent in what Comcast does or says or earns. He knows that, right? He worked for them. He knows. So what is he doing? He is making a stink to make it look like his stink has some sort of importance. He is laying a fart bomb. Simple. Skunks are cute vermin as well.

We're just gonna lock these stealth US Politics threads.

Guys the internet is a big place. Surely you can find somewhere else to talk about Donald Trump, et al.