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Made in us
Longtime Dakkanaut





For those of you who are interested here is some math related to Shadespire.

Probabilities on one die:
no dodge or exclamation point: 0.6666666
no exclamation point: 0.8333333
no shield or exclamation point: 0.5
shield but no exclamation point: 0.3333333

Probabilities on two dice
one hammer no exclamation: 0.33333333
two hammers: 0.11111111
one exclamation point: 0.2777777
two exclamation points: 0.0277777

one sword no exclamation: 0.22222222
two swords: 0.02777777

no shield and no exclamation: 0.25
not two hammers and no exclamations: 0.583333333 (this number is wrong but I cant be bothered to fix it now)
not one or two exclamations: 0.694444444
not two exclamations: 0.972222222


Probabilities on three dice
one sword no exclamation point: 0.22222222
two swords no exclamation point: 0.05555555
three swords: 0.00462963
one exclamation point: 0.34722222
two exclamation points: 0.06944444
three exclamation points: 0.00462963

(there can also be three hammers with the use of cards, but I shall leave that out for now)

From this information we can calculate the success of attacks.

Probability of a successful attack with two dice looking for hammers versus one die looking for dodge:
0.57407389

one hammer no exclamation: 0.33333333 * no dodge or exclamation point: 0.6666666
=0.22222222
two hammers: 0.11111111 * no exclamation point: 0.8333333 =0.09259259
one exclamation point: 0.277777 * no exclamation point: 0.8333333 =0.23148142
two exclamation points: 0.027777

Probability of a successful attack with two dice looking for hammers versus one die looking for shield:
0.51851838

one hammer no exclamation: 0.33333333 * no shield or exclamation point: 0.5
=0.16666666
two hammers: 0.11111111 * no exclamation point: 0.8333333 =0.09259259
one exclamation point: 0.277777 * no exclamation point: 0.8333333 =0.23148142
two exclamation points: 0.027777

Probability of a successful attack with two dice looking for swords versus one die looking for shield:
0.39351844

one sword no exclamation: 0.22222222 * no shield or exclamation point: 0.5
=0.11111111
two swords: 0.02777777 * no exclamation point: 0.8333333
=0.023148147
one exclamation point: 0.27777777 * no exclamation point: 0.8333333 =0.23148142
two exclamation points: 0.02777777


Probability of a successful attack with three dice looking for swords versus one die looking for shield:
0.52469134

one sword no exclamation point: 0.22222222 * no shield or exclamation point: 0.5
=0.11111111
two swords no exclamation point: 0.05555555 * no exclamation point: 0.8333333
=0.04629629
three swords: 0.00462963 * no exclamation point: 0.8333333
=0.00385802
one exclamation point: 0.34722222 * no exclamation point: 0.8333333
=0.28935185
two exclamation points: 0.06944444
three exclamation points: 0.00462963


Probability of a successful attack with two dice looking for hammers versus two dice looking for shields:
0.36805555

one hammer no exclamation: 0.33333333 * no shield and no exclamation: 0.25
=0.083333333
two hammers: 0.11111111 * not two hammers and no exclamations: 0.583333333
=0.06481481
one exclamation point: 0.277777 * not one or two exclamations: 0.694444444
=0.19290123
two exclamation points: 0.027777 * not two exclamations: 0.972222222
=0.02700617


There are of course other possibilities including supports. It should be noted that a sword with one support is equal to a hammer, and a dodge with one support is equal to a shield.

These numbers favor the space marines.

It should also be noted that most attacks by the space marines 'one shot' the chaos warriors.
Chaos on the other hand need at least two attacks to kill a space marine.

4 attack actions by a space marine at a success rate of 0.57407389 = 2.2962556
3 attack actions by a space marine at a success rate of 0.57407389 = 1.72222167

4 attack actions by a space marine at a success rate of 0.51851838 = 2.07407352
3 attack actions by a space marine at a success rate of 0.51851838 = 1.55555555

Thus we can see in any of these scenarios that e can expect the space marines kill a chaos dude and then some.

4 attack actions by a chaos dude at a success rate of 0.51851838 = 2.07407352
3 attack actions by a chaos dude at a success rate of 0.51851838 = 1.55555555

Here we see that we can expect it to take a full 4 attacks to kill a space marine. On the first turn, it is not possible to make four charges if the space marine player sets up ideally. Thus, we would not expect that Chaos can wipe out the Space Marines in the 12 actions in a game.

All in all, Chaos seems to be at a disadvantage. Maybe this can be made up with objectives, or powering up Saek with great strength. On first glance it does not seem that they can overcome their disadvantage.

If chaos does want to go for an all out attack, it seems advisable to go in with beardy, who cannot be one shotted. He can then support other attackers.

It should also be noted that many of the cards are utter rubbish. For example, Let the Blood Flow is very unlikely to be successful.

All in all I do not see this as being a competitive game. It may be nice as a 3 or 4 player beer and pretzel game.
   
Made in us
Blood-Raging Khorne Berserker





Pittsburgh, PA

I like how you totally ignore that the goal isn't necessarily to wipe your opponent out, but to play to your objectives and score more points than your opponent, and you ignore the other two factions currently in the game, and you ignore the inspire conditions, etc etc etc. It's good to know that some people try to distill everything down to sheer numbers when that's probably one of the worst ways to measure effectiveness in a game like this.
   
Made in es
Brutal Black Orc




Barcelona, Spain

 spaceelf wrote:


Here we see that we can expect it to take a full 4 attacks to kill a space marine. On the first turn, it is not possible to make four charges if the space marine player sets up ideally. Thus, we would not expect that Chaos can wipe out the Space Marines in the 12 actions in a game.

All in all, Chaos seems to be at a disadvantage. Maybe this can be made up with objectives, or powering up Saek with great strength. On first glance it does not seem that they can overcome their disadvantage.

If chaos does want to go for an all out attack, it seems advisable to go in with beardy, who cannot be one shotted. He can then support other attackers.

It should also be noted that many of the cards are utter rubbish. For example, Let the Blood Flow is very unlikely to be successful.

All in all I do not see this as being a competitive game. It may be nice as a 3 or 4 player beer and pretzel game.


Dude, congratulations on wasting your time in the most dumb, pointless, way possible. Also, kudos on missing the point so badly on how the game should work. I, meanwhile, will keep on winning (if a bit neck and neck) matches against SCE with my deckholding objective.

The funniest part is that your math is borderline worthless, since the calculus turns around not counting criticals... because of no reason whatsoever.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2017/11/24 11:12:19


 
   
Made in us
Longtime Dakkanaut





I appreciate the criticism. I do not think that it is a waste of time to mathhammer. If the aspect of the game were not important, it could simply be removed. Moreover, I believe that the strategy of the game can become clear through logical considerations, of which mathhammer is one part. I also am well aware that my post was not a full analysis of the game. However, it does begin to shed some light on the gameplay.

Obviously getting glory/gold is the objective of the game. I did not directly address this in my previous post. There are two ways to get such things. One is to put enemy models out of action. The second is to fulfill objective cards. My post did shed a bit of light on the topic, as it elucidated the amount of expected glory from attacking an enemy character. The topic of wiping the entire enemy warband is of importance as it is the goal of one of the most valuable objective cards.

Inspire conditions are important. I dealt with the space marine one in my previous post (two dice shield defense).

I still believe that Chaos is at a disadvantage to space marines. Most of the objective cards relate to taking models out of action, or to holding objectives. Chaos is not very good at holding objectives, as they do not have good defense. (They are knocked off of objectives more than 70% of the time) One might respond that a chaos player is not simply going to sit on an objective early in the turn. This may be true, but then this will telegraph to the space marine player the character that may grab an objective late in the turn.

I have not commented on the other warbands, as I have not played them. This does not invalidate my comments on Chaos and space marines. If anyone has some enlightening thoughts about the other warbands, then perhaps they will share them.

In terms of the math being invalid, I do not think that is the case and you may have misunderstood what I wrote. It is not perfect, but I tried to account for each of the ways that an attack could be successful. Thus, a person could have one hammer and no exclamation points versus no dodge or exclamation point. A second way to succeed would be to have two hammers versus no exclamation points, etc. I did miss one condition where there could be a tie in exclamation points, and the result would be calculated in terms of the regular attacks again. It should not substantially change the numbers that I provided.


This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/11/24 12:46:14


 
   
Made in es
Brutal Black Orc




Barcelona, Spain

Oh for hell's sake, at least try and call them sigmarines when talking to stormcasts. You are behaving like a low-quality troll now.
   
 
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