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http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/self-driving-uber-car-kills-arizona-woman-crossing-street/ar-BBKqSzV?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=ientp

Doesn't help that the "babysitter" was in the car when it happened. Wondering how this little hiccup will slow down automated driving, or automation in general.



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It was inevitable that this would happen, drive enough cars on enough roads with enough people, someone's gonna die, that's just statistics.

We'll see what happened. I doubt it slows anything down in the long term unless there was a massive unforgivable systems failure, it may drag the regulatory fight out a bit longer, but this was going to happen at some point anyway. I'd imagine if nothing else it will help drive development in a macabre fashion, being a first data point and all.

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Remember that pedestrians and other drivers do stupid stuff all the time that gets them killed by regular automobile drivers.

Automated cars will NEVER get to zero traffic fatalities. The idea is to get to fewer fatalities than 'normal' traffic.

That said, they're testing in real world traffic waaaaaay too early and should be doing testing in closed environments with simulated people and a huge variety of simulated events, not on the open road.

   
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 John Prins wrote:
Automated cars will NEVER get to zero traffic fatalities. The idea is to get to fewer fatalities than 'normal' traffic.


Exactly. This will likely slow development far more than it should, but if we were consistent and applied the same standards to human drivers we'd have a total ban on them. But no, every time a human driver runs over someone and kills them we just write it off as the cost of doing business.

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 Just Tony wrote:
Somewhere in the background I can hear Ronnie Cox saying "I'm sure it's just a glitch, sir."

It sounds like it wasn't a glitch, it was a pedestrian doing something stupid:

"Elaine Herzberg, 49, was walking her bicycle outside the crosswalk on a four-lane road in the Phoenix suburb of Tempe about 10 p.m. MST Sunday (0400 GMT Monday) when she was struck by the Uber vehicle traveling at about 40 miles per hour (65 km per hour), police said."

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The point is that the machine couldn't make a judgment call in that situation, and the babysitter inside the car failed to, more than likely out of complacency. Will this drive the AI field to try to make reactionary software? Probably, but it's still a black eye that the tech doesn't need right now.

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 John Prins wrote:

Automated cars will NEVER get to zero traffic fatalities. The idea is to get to fewer fatalities than 'normal' traffic.

That said, they're testing in real world traffic waaaaaay too early and should be doing testing in closed environments with simulated people and a huge variety of simulated events, not on the open road.



Never say never. . . I can envision a situation where, if 100% of vehicles on the road are automated, and pedestrian access areas are severely limited, you could see a point where 0 traffic deaths becomes a thing.

A group in one of my classes is doing a project on analyzing automatic vehicles, and apparently some places in Europe, notably Germany, are waaaaay ahead of the US in terms of automated cars.
   
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I don't think this will slow development. I think it will just make legislators more picky about who they let on the road to test.

 AlexHolker wrote:
 Just Tony wrote:
Somewhere in the background I can hear Ronnie Cox saying "I'm sure it's just a glitch, sir."

It sounds like it wasn't a glitch, it was a pedestrian doing something stupid:

"Elaine Herzberg, 49, was walking her bicycle outside the crosswalk on a four-lane road in the Phoenix suburb of Tempe about 10 p.m. MST Sunday (0400 GMT Monday) when she was struck by the Uber vehicle traveling at about 40 miles per hour (65 km per hour), police said."


If that is all there is to it, then it is absolutely the fault of the car. This is exactly the kind of situation that self driving cars have to deal with in the real world and have to deal with safely. It's not clear from any of the reports if she was walking down the road or crossing, but both of these are things that people do every day. It may be that she ran out in front of the car giving it no time to stop, and a human would not have reacted, or it could be that the car failed to see her, as identifying cyclists and pedestrians is something engineers have been struggling with. Cyclists seem to be something that automated cars really struggle with. They are slow moving, move very little left/right and are small so present a tiny cross section. Close passes have been a particular issue.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2018/03/20 08:36:48


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So what? Cars that are operated by people make an accidents too.

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 Just Tony wrote:
The point is that the machine couldn't make a judgment call in that situation, and the babysitter inside the car failed to, more than likely out of complacency. Will this drive the AI field to try to make reactionary software? Probably, but it's still a black eye that the tech doesn't need right now.


And humans can't make judgement calls. Issue is issue only if 1000 AI cars will cause more accidents than 1000 human drivers. Whether AI car causes 0 accidents or not is not really relevant. Issue is which is more dangerous. Having AI cars or having human controlled cars. And humans sure haven't proven themselves to be accident free drivers.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 Ensis Ferrae wrote:
 John Prins wrote:

Automated cars will NEVER get to zero traffic fatalities. The idea is to get to fewer fatalities than 'normal' traffic.

That said, they're testing in real world traffic waaaaaay too early and should be doing testing in closed environments with simulated people and a huge variety of simulated events, not on the open road.



Never say never. . . I can envision a situation where, if 100% of vehicles on the road are automated, and pedestrian access areas are severely limited, you could see a point where 0 traffic deaths becomes a thing.

A group in one of my classes is doing a project on analyzing automatic vehicles, and apparently some places in Europe, notably Germany, are waaaaay ahead of the US in terms of automated cars.


Pedestrian access limited still doesn't remove some idiot from going there anyway.

Not to mention of course the eternal threat of hacking.

0 isn't going to happen.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2018/03/20 09:19:29


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tneva82 wrote:
Pedestrian access limited still doesn't remove some idiot from going there anyway.

Exactly. In my country, trespassing on the railway is a criminal offence that can get you fined or even jailed. Yet an average of 17 people a year still manage to get themselves killed doing it.

Anyway, the robots are going to have to try much harder if they want to be killing as many people on the roads as human drivers do.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2018/03/20 09:52:34


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As tneva82 said, the important thing is that autonomous vehicles need to cause fewer accidents than human drivers, not zero (which is never going to be achieved.)

However, this needs to be done without serious restrictions on the behaviour of human pedestrians and cyclists.

In other words, the cars need to be able to anticipate that sometimes people do stupid things, and avoid them anyway. Machines should be the servant of humans, not the other way round.

We don't know the full circumstances of this accident in Austin yet.

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My feelings go out to that ladies family and that does suck but in all honesty it was going to happen eventually. Now I havnt seen footage of what went events happened to cause that outcome but Im not going to blame either party as of yet. Maybe she crossed when the cross walk said no crossing. Maybe the cars programming missed her. Maybe she just came out from behind another car. Maybe Volvos hate cougars on bicycles. I dunno, but I wouldnt call for an immediate cancellation on auto driving cars.
   
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The other aspect is that fallen items, snow drifts, wild animals, domestic animals, horse riders, removal men stacking stuff by the roadside, fallen tree trunk/branches etc.... These are all things that can and will appear on the roads (and is by no means an exhaustive list) and many of them at random with a potential to react in a random/negative manner toward an approaching car.

This is doubled if the car is electric and thus very silent when running. I've been working roadside and its honestly scary how well an electric car can sneak up on you without you noticing. Esp on country lanes with lots of corners.


I do agree that I think the cars should be still tested in a controlled environment where there are safety checks in place and all manner of ways to test things without putting lives at risk. Real world testing is valuable, but there are a lot of ways to simulate and test real world driving in a controlled situation; to say nothing of the fact that direct observation and testing would prove far more valuable in data gathering.






The way I see it self driven cars must reach a point where they can drive safer than a skilled drive (not just an average/competent one) and be able to react to all manner of issues without drive input.

People get distracted and lazy and if we go giving them cars that drive themselves then the driver is going to get very lazy very fast. Look at the film I Robot* (with Will Smith); in the film the self driving cars do most of the urban driving without driver input to the point where driver input is actually seen as abnormal and a far greater risk.
The driver cannot be the back-up for the machine because if the machine is doing all the driving the driver will steadily stop interacting with the driving component of the car.


Imagine getting a self driving car that really works well in the summer time. Easy roads, easy to see and the car does it all without any problems. Even the most alert of drivers is steadily going to get complacent. They'll allow themselves to chat (and turn to face the person they are speaking too); to listen to the radio; to get a quick nap because its the end of the week after a long day at work; to eat a sandwich; to fiddle with their cufflinks because they left late and are still partly getting dressed for the event they are heading too.

The only way I can see a self-driving car retain the driver as a backup is if the driver is required to interact the whole time in the driving process. However that somewhat defeats the point of the self driving car if you still have to drive it.




*honestly the way that film depicts self driving cars is probably what we will end up with. Self driving in the built up urban areas where the road system is far more controlled and regulated and then self driving for the countryside.

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 Overread wrote:
The way I see it self driven cars must reach a point where they can drive safer than a skilled drive (not just an average/competent one) and be able to react to all manner of issues without drive input.


Why? Being safer than even a skilled driver is absurdly conservative. An automated car that is safer than an average driver replacing that average driver is a net increase in safety, even if a tiny minority of drivers are safer than the automated car. Hell, even an automated car that is more dangerous than the average driver is probably still a net increase in safety if it replaces all the idiots driving around while texting, while drunk, etc. You just have to get past the double standard where every fatal accident caused by an automated car is reason for skepticism and regulation, while fatal accidents by human drivers are dismissed as the price of having cars.

The driver cannot be the back-up for the machine because if the machine is doing all the driving the driver will steadily stop interacting with the driving component of the car.


You don't need a backup, that's an over-conservative regulation for the initial testing process. In normal operation the humans will be passengers, only driving the car if the automated system fails (and probably with very strict speed restrictions, and only to get the vehicle home). There is no situation where the passenger would be expected to take over immediately to avoid a hazard.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2018/03/20 12:21:09


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Accidents aren't so much caused by 'bad' drivers, but momentary lapses in concentration, and other distractions.

Think about it. I learned to drive knocking on for 20 years ago. And over such a long time, it all becomes automatic. Being British I of course drive a manual - and changing gears just isn't something I have to consciously think about. Being able to cruise along at the speed limit is likewise a near automatic response (only real checking is when I enter a new one, and have to change my pace).

But, give me someone prattling on and on and on whilst I'm driving? That can cause a slip of my concentration. Even something as daft as them sitting 'manspreading' in the passenger seat, meaning I need a different grip on the gearstick. That can cause me to enter the wrong gear. Get that particularly wrong, and you can lose control of your car.

Then there's poor weather. A normally conscientious but newly qualified driver may not have encountered these conditions, and fail to take them properly into account. Brake too sharply on a wet road, and you can aquaplane. Take a corner slightly too fast, and your rear end can slide out from under you.

Even good old fashioned impatience and frustration at other road users can lead to foolhardy decisions on normally level headed drivers (the worst I find is when you're stuck behind someone driving dangerously. You want to overtake, and may end up taking a silly risk. Silly I know)

Automated Vehicles will at the very least remove the emotional content of many causes of accidents. No red mist. No 'get off the road you daft old biddy'. No distraction by passengers fiddling about with the controls (my brother is NOT allowed to touch my stereo anymore. In fact, he has to sit in the back where he can't fiddle with anything). If your car is self driving, and like me you're enjoying a nice tab whilst pootling along, get a bit of the hot ash on your lap is less likely to cause an accident.

What this incident does is simply point out it's still a new technology - it doesn't mean it's fundamentally flawed or ultimately unworkable.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
In fact, I'd like all drivers in this thread to list three things that most irk them when behind the wheel. This is to demonstrate and highlight areas where an automated vehicle would be superior.

Here's mine.

1. People just sitting at junctions. You pull out when it's safe. Not when there's no traffic for a three mile radius.

2. People mucking about at lights. Typically the first car. Who wants to wait whilst they put their seatbelt back on, start their engine, find the right gear, just in time for them to creep over the line before the lights change again (genuinely witnessed as above. More than once)

3. People who don't understand how filter lanes work. Zipper folks, Zipper. One passes, nip in behind, one passes, nip in behind. Fault on both the filterers and the established vehicles here. AND STOP USING THE HARD SHOULDER TO TRY TO JUMP THE QUEUE. Particularly, when on the motorway, if you're coming up to a slip road joining the carriage way, do try to leave that lane clear. The number of accidents I've almost been in, or seen narrowly missed because someone just pootles along on the motorway with no regard to anyone else....grrrr.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2018/03/20 14:30:21


   
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Aye in theory driver-less cars should be superior than a regular driver. No emotion; no "omg must hurry I'm late"; no fatigue; no hunger; no need to use the toilet; no annoyance at backseat drivers; no annoyance at someone changing the radio station or nagging or annoying or even just talking. And a big one is no bad habits developed over years of driving* That in itself ranks it superior to the majority of drivers


And another big potential advantage is that driverless cars should be able to talk to each other. Right now you've no idea what is going through the mind of the drive in front. You might not even be able to see the full road ahead of them that they can see (esp if they are a larger or wider vehicle).

A driverless car system could link up with other cars in range. More complex to setup to ensure all the cars link up correctly; but if done it could mean if the car at front detects issues ahead the slowdown process can already begin through the whole line of traffic. Increasing spacing based on road awareness; and if there is a sudden stop then all the cars should be applying brakes almost within the same instant, instead of with lag.

Take that further and cars coming the other way could provide road information for oncoming cars. A simple thing like a very deep puddle on one side of the road after a corner. A car coming the other way could provide information on that risk to cars approaching; thus meaning they could slow down and be ready for that issue before any of the approaching cars have had a chance to detect it themselves.
This to say nothing of how such a system could control major bodies of traffic; indeed one might expect that a major road network might well have its own computer system that cars entering in tune into. Allowing roads like the M25 to manage themselves in terms of avoiding traffic build up; managing peek hours; diverting (keeping all diversions on the same line or breaking them up as required instead of each car doing it on its own via a satnav system)

Of course such a system would only work if all the cars are communicating on the same network with the same network protocols and if they are all driverless. It also increase the complexity of information by a significant margin, which puts more load on each individual cars internal computer. Of course being as a driverless system is likely many years if not decades away from a reality, the time lag would be a benefit provided that computers continue to advance as they are.


The potential is huge, but I still think its a very long way off. What I think we will see, even if the driverless car tech was fully ready today, is a steady drift of driver aid features over time; with those features trickling down even into the more economy class of vehicles. Once drivers and the public are much more aware off and trusting in things like an auto stop; lane advice; speed monitoring etc... then chances are the idea of the car taking over more and more will become more appealing and thus much more accepted.

The hardest period will be in the change-over when you've got driverless and driven vehicles sharing the same road. It will also be when accidents do happen and who is at fault. How the insurance companies react to driverless cars and deal with cases where they are involved in accidents is going to be interesting. Right now driverless cars are all owned by research/development groups and if there are accidents where the driveless car is at fault then the research/development group has to pay out from their insurance.

Now what happens in the future when its private owners and their driverless car hits something. Or what if two driverless cars hit each other. Are private owners going to want to fork out for a mistake which, honestly, wasn't their fault as they were not in control of the car at the time. Many might argue that if the car fails then the manufacturer/software designer has failed.
Similarly if two cars crash and they are both driverless and neither system is at "fault" then who pays?

Right now if you have an accident its on the drivers involved as they are in control of their cars; there is clear direct accountability.






*In nearly any industry where you use tools or machines; even things like strimmers, there are recommended periods of retraining. Some insurance won't even work if you don't keep your training tickets up to date even if you're using the tools all the time (eg chainsaws). However whilst we require cars to take an MOT, we don't require any retraining of drivers. Pass at 18 and you can drive for decades before the old-age-check comes up and even that is mostly just checking that your eyes/body are fit to drive.
I suspect a lot of accidents could be prevented if every 5 years or so you had to do a retest and had to spend X amount of hours with a qualified driving instructor.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2018/03/20 15:19:37


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Yup. And if they can talk to each other, it could, potentially, banish Phantom Traffic Jams.

See, these are when you're driving on the motorway, autobahn or freeway - any road where high speeds are the norm. Yet suddenly, traffic slows to a crawl - and when it clears, there's no sign of an actual cause. No bumps, no roadworks, no sirens - nada.

What actually causes these is overly sharp braking by one driver. They slow from say (numbers out my bottom for demonstration purposes only) a steady 60, to a piddling 20 in no time at all. Quite possibly overreacting to someone cutting in front of them when it was in fact safe to do so. That sharp braking has a knock-on effect down the line of traffic, until it eventually develops into vehicles at a standstill. Of course, with no actual hazard, it all clears eventually - but still created a temporary jam.

If automated cars are programmed to brake safely in harmony with one another, that's gone right there - as will be idiots in Audis and BMWs lane hopping because their manhood is just that big.

Of course, it will mean an end to me sitting in the inside lane doing 70, precisely to wind up the Audi and BMW drivers of the world Oh, it's lovely to see them flashing, honking and gesticulating at me daring to stick to the speed limit!*


*and if you think that's childish, wait until I retire, buy a large car and a caravan, then muck about with it by driving very, very slowly. Every morning. During rush hour.

   
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In Japan last year I rented a Prius which had cruise control which let you set a speed for the motorway and it automatically maintained this while braking or accelerating to keep a safe distance from the car in front. It also had lane drift warning sensors.

You can see how this technology, fitted to all cars and actually being used, would turn most motorway driving into the equivalent of sitting in a train.

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 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:

*and if you think that's childish, wait until I retire, buy a large car and a caravan, then muck about with it by driving very, very slowly. Every morning. During rush hour.


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 Kilkrazy wrote:
In Japan last year I rented a Prius which had cruise control which let you set a speed for the motorway and it automatically maintained this while braking or accelerating to keep a safe distance from the car in front. It also had lane drift warning sensors.

You can see how this technology, fitted to all cars and actually being used, would turn most motorway driving into the equivalent of sitting in a train.


As someone who commutes by coach five days a week, I can very much confirm that driving home is exceptionally relaxing when you're not doing the driving. Sure, delays will see me grumble, but I don't get hot under the collar. I just have a doze, or read me book.

   
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Mad Doc - aye and there's also the issue of roundabouts and such on main roads; another area where people have to suddenly slow down and can cause a choke in the speed and flow of traffic even if there is no actual blockage. Being able to smoothly integrate the different types of traffic perfectly; balancing so that busier lanes move through quicker whist not leaving those in less used lanes left for an age waiting for a gap (and at rush hours getting more impatient and more stressed - esp if someone comes up behind and spies what they think is a gap and start beeping their horn to get the car in front to leap forward).

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Roundabouts I prefer to traffic lights overall. The only issue there is when an idiot tries to squeak through when there's traffic coming from the right (to which you should yield, if you drive on the left, fact fans!). And of course people who just sit there, even when there's nothing coming.

Then there's also poor positioning.

If you look here, this is a local trouble spot for slowing down traffic.

See, the main road continues straight on - and this is just after some lights. All it takes is someone wanting to turn right (there's a large school down there, and residential. Also a shortcut to the far end of town, if you know what you're doing), but straddling both lanes. Traffic looking to go straight on can't get past, creating a log jam which stretches quite far beyond the lights, without fail.

In theory, automated cars shouldn't have that problem. And again, slow off the mark? These lights don't give you very long to get through, as they're phased in with the previous set...

   
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Maybe I've been consuming too much dystopian grimdark. But I can see a future where different manufacturers communicate false information to their competitors to cause accidents and sully their brand.

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It's more my professional world I worry about.

How does one assign blame in a car accident, when there's not only AI to consider, but the inevitable 'he was driving it himself' arguments?

   
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 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
It's more my professional world I worry about.

How does one assign blame in a car accident, when there's not only AI to consider, but the inevitable 'he was driving it himself' arguments?


With AI, we can open it up and literally read it's 'thought process' leading up to the crash. That could be invaluable in mitigating accidents going forwards.

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But who do you hold responsible for the accident?

At what point does the AI mean the driver is simply a passenger? If your vehicle is determined to be the cause of an accident - is the manufacturer responsible, or the programmer? Where does the true liability lie? Where does the causal break kick in?

   
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Obviously these questions will have to be settled.

I think the combination of fewer accidents thanks to automation, coupled with fewer and safer cars, will mean that the need for insurance will be much less.

Perhaps car manufacturers will accept liability as standard, and form a mututal fund to compensate victims. Criminal interference with the safety programming will invalidate this of course, but we have people driving without insurance or valid licences right now.

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Counter argument there is that a flaw in programming is unlikely to cause just a single accident...

   
 
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