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We've all heard the news about the Turkish Lira going down quicker than the Titanic, and we've all had plenty to say about Erdogan these past years, but what now?

Turkey is obviously an important NATO member and important for the Black Sea and the debacle happening in Syria.

And let's not forget 3 million refugees, and a ton of money owned to European banks.

And who knows what Erdogan himself might do. Desperate men do desperate things.

If Turkey collpases, there will be so much gak hitting the fan, we won't even be able to see the fan!

Nothing happens, economic downturns have happened in Turkey, Erdogan postponed the worst of it untill after the election and will just use this to further his grip on power. Some measures will get taken and Erdogan might privately back down and let the pastor go to reverse US pressure. They make up some convoluted story so they both look good and the worst edge is taken off.

As for the inflation rate, the current rate is small compared to the peaks it hit between 1970-2000 that went up 4 to 6 times the current height. Turkey is not going to collapse.

The worry about Turkey is that it's another country getting into a financial mess and the trouble may spread.

If Turkey has a problem paying its foreign debts, Spain is a major creditor and likely to suffer. Spain's economy isn't in tip-top condition as it is.

The crash of 2008 was preceded by several years of smaller economies around the world having crises. Eventually the big economies got hit.

Indeed, in a wider context these sorts of events are never good for the financial markets because emotions play a huge part. But that is true when discussing any country, nothing specific to Turkey.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
The worry about Turkey is that it's another country getting into a financial mess and the trouble may spread.

If Turkey has a problem paying its foreign debts, Spain is a major creditor and likely to suffer. Spain's economy isn't in tip-top condition as it is.

The crash of 2008 was preceded by several years of smaller economies around the world having crises. Eventually the big economies got hit.

It doesn't help at all that the US's sanctions will shift Turkey further to supporting Russia. Putin must be laughing.

Trump must have taken to heart the film "How to lose friends and alienate people"

You've got to wonder how much Putin managed to persuade Trump in the recent 2 hour private 'chat' session.

Well. Trump doesn't want to bite the hand that feeds him.

 Whirlwind wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
The worry about Turkey is that it's another country getting into a financial mess and the trouble may spread.

If Turkey has a problem paying its foreign debts, Spain is a major creditor and likely to suffer. Spain's economy isn't in tip-top condition as it is.

The crash of 2008 was preceded by several years of smaller economies around the world having crises. Eventually the big economies got hit.

It doesn't help at all that the US's sanctions will shift Turkey further to supporting Russia. Putin must be laughing.

Trump must have taken to heart the film "How to lose friends and alienate people"

You've got to wonder how much Putin managed to persuade Trump in the recent 2 hour private 'chat' session.

its worth noting that in the US thread that this was shown to be a pretty silly idea based on the amount of trade Turkey does with each country.

Turkey's exports of steel and aluminium account for about 1% of their economy. It's not these tariffs in themselves that are the problem. Turkey has wider economic problems

The Trump tariffs have been the flash point that caused the sudden slide in the Lira. The slide then leads to a cascade of other problems as Turkey has a lot of foreign debt it will find harder to service.

And so on.

It is a worrying probem politically too. Turkey is supposed to be the eastern bulwark of NATO, connecting Europe and the MIddle East.

While a lot of Turkey's economic problems are Erdogan's fault, his rhetoric is to blame outsiders (the west, the USA.) This is ramping up the nationalism, which was already a problem.

Can you imagine if Turkey became a failed state, or left the western alliance and moved into the Russian orbit?

Turkey is a failed state to be. Put them under austerity until they get their gak together.

If the western alliance allows Turkey to become a failed state, it will end up in the Russian sphere.

Well US, russia, both bad masters.

Erdogan can't give up the preacher now he's taken an 'official' stance on it, he would look weak and that's not something he's going to be prepared to risk

I fear the preacher will have a 'heart attack' or accident and die as somebody looks to solve the issue with little appreciation of how this will be seen in the USA (not saying it will be officially ordered, but even if it isn't there are probably enough in the security services who might see it as a way for their country to save face)

 soundwave591 wrote:

 Whirlwind wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
The worry about Turkey is that it's another country getting into a financial mess and the trouble may spread.

If Turkey has a problem paying its foreign debts, Spain is a major creditor and likely to suffer. Spain's economy isn't in tip-top condition as it is.

The crash of 2008 was preceded by several years of smaller economies around the world having crises. Eventually the big economies got hit.

It doesn't help at all that the US's sanctions will shift Turkey further to supporting Russia. Putin must be laughing.

Trump must have taken to heart the film "How to lose friends and alienate people"

You've got to wonder how much Putin managed to persuade Trump in the recent 2 hour private 'chat' session.

its worth noting that in the US thread that this was shown to be a pretty silly idea based on the amount of trade Turkey does with each country.

Indeed, I will repost what I said in tge US thread as this is basically the same conversation:

 Disciple of Fate wrote:
A few things you have to take into account. Turkey can ill afford to leave the Western sphere for the Russian one, because of ongoing problems with Europe that its NATO membership shields it from. Russia and Turkey aren't friends either, they are at opposite sides when it comes to Syria. And Russia has very little to offer to Turkey when most of the countries in the region are firmly in the US camp, trade with US allies making up 45% of the total versus 4% with Russia. What does going with Russia offer Turkey?

The problematic issue of Turkey going after your own citizens on trumped up charges. A pastor today, US teachers or journalists tomorrow? Where do you draw the line even when its an ally?

US foreign policy is all over the place in case of Trump, but in this case it makes sense to start drawing the line (even though its probably not thought through). Its obviously not about democracy as Trump couldn't care less about Erdogan's authoritarian behaviour or his bodyguards beating up protestors in the US. Its about his base, but even though the wider picture might be ignored that doesn't mean its not a good step.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Turkey's exports of steel and aluminium account for about 1% of their economy. It's not these tariffs in themselves that are the problem. Turkey has wider economic problems

The Trump tariffs have been the flash point that caused the sudden slide in the Lira. The slide then leads to a cascade of other problems as Turkey has a lot of foreign debt it will find harder to service.

And so on.

It is a worrying probem politically too. Turkey is supposed to be the eastern bulwark of NATO, connecting Europe and the MIddle East.

While a lot of Turkey's economic problems are Erdogan's fault, his rhetoric is to blame outsiders (the west, the USA.) This is ramping up the nationalism, which was already a problem.

Can you imagine if Turkey became a failed state, or left the western alliance and moved into the Russian orbit?

The context is different, but there are comparisons to be made with the past. As a Western ally Turkey invaded Cyprus and still occupied and illegally props up a pretender state in the north in territory of an EU member. Turkey has gone through multiple economic slumps in the last few decades. Being in NATO and the US sphere is keeping a lot of sensitive issues at bay. What is the benefit in moving to the Russian sphere when Erdogan had just as many issues with Putin just a few years ago? Moving away from the Western sphere doesn't help with any of these issues, it would just add more on top. Why not just stay in the Western one and shield yourself for the most part while engaging with Russia as he does now? Turkey is pretty capable of having its cake and eating it too at this point. That is the real issue, Erdogan politically abandoned his allies a while ago, but he can cling to them like a parasite while making his own plans that hurt the overall system.

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

A few things you have to take into account. Turkey can ill afford to leave the Western sphere for the Russian one, because of ongoing problems with Europe that its NATO membership shields it from. Russia and Turkey aren't friends either, they are at opposite sides when it comes to Syria. And Russia has very little to offer to Turkey when most of the countries in the region are firmly in the US camp, trade with US allies making up 45% of the total versus 4% with Russia. What does going with Russia offer Turkey?

The problematic issue of Turkey going after your own citizens on trumped up charges. A pastor today, US teachers or journalists tomorrow? Where do you draw the line even when its an ally?

US foreign policy is all over the place in case of Trump, but in this case it makes sense to start drawing the line (even though its probably not thought through). Its obviously not about democracy as Trump couldn't care less about Erdogan's authoritarian behaviour or his bodyguards beating up protestors in the US. Its about his base, but even though the wider picture might be ignored that doesn't mean its not a good step.

The issue you have is perception though. Edrogan effectively controls his media. A blunt approach that the US is taking, although may be just a small impact on the economy overall, is easy to spin to cover much larger issues that are going on. If you can transfer the blame then the public at large becomes blinded to those real issues. There is no doubt that Turkey moving towards more support of Russia despite some ongoing issues. If you economy collapses and western nations are unwilling to step in to help because of Edrogan's approach then that would make any offer from Russia much more tempting (even if it is worse than what they have now). The switch may not happen overnight, but perhaps over time can occur as the west and US pulls back. The switch from western defence systems to Russian defence systems is one such sign (and is likely much more of concern to the US military than Trumps blunt issues).

 Whirlwind wrote:

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

A few things you have to take into account. Turkey can ill afford to leave the Western sphere for the Russian one, because of ongoing problems with Europe that its NATO membership shields it from. Russia and Turkey aren't friends either, they are at opposite sides when it comes to Syria. And Russia has very little to offer to Turkey when most of the countries in the region are firmly in the US camp, trade with US allies making up 45% of the total versus 4% with Russia. What does going with Russia offer Turkey?

The problematic issue of Turkey going after your own citizens on trumped up charges. A pastor today, US teachers or journalists tomorrow? Where do you draw the line even when its an ally?

US foreign policy is all over the place in case of Trump, but in this case it makes sense to start drawing the line (even though its probably not thought through). Its obviously not about democracy as Trump couldn't care less about Erdogan's authoritarian behaviour or his bodyguards beating up protestors in the US. Its about his base, but even though the wider picture might be ignored that doesn't mean its not a good step.

The issue you have is perception though. Edrogan effectively controls his media. A blunt approach that the US is taking, although may be just a small impact on the economy overall, is easy to spin to cover much larger issues that are going on. If you can transfer the blame then the public at large becomes blinded to those real issues. There is no doubt that Turkey moving towards more support of Russia despite some ongoing issues. If you economy collapses and western nations are unwilling to step in to help because of Edrogan's approach then that would make any offer from Russia much more tempting (even if it is worse than what they have now). The switch may not happen overnight, but perhaps over time can occur as the west and US pulls back. The switch from western defence systems to Russian defence systems is one such sign (and is likely much more of concern to the US military than Trumps blunt issues).

But Erdogan controls the perception as you said. So while he rants and raves in public he is happy to benefit from his Western ties in the background. He isn't going to get punished for having his cake and eating it too. What will abandoning the Western sphere for the Russian one do except open Turkey up to more sanctions? So far the West has offered some meak protests to the Turkidh purges. But what would hold the West back if Turkey joins the camp of a hostile power? Russia is in no position to provide economic aid on such a scale.

Again, he isn't switching sides, Erdogan is a dictator that figured out that he can wag the dog because the dog doesn't want to bite its own tail off. He has been working towards this for years, trying to get the maximum amount of gain from playing both sides. Then he agitated against the West, knowing we have our hands tied through NATO and Syria, to gain votes from nationalistic Turks in the West and at home. Buying Russian systems fits in that agitation (they bought between 2-4, hardly a huge commitment) to piss off the US because meanwhile Turkey is still buying a large quantity of F-35s, which the US hates now that they bought the S-400.

Erdogan has no reason to switch when he can have both. This economic crisis was a long time coming and Erdogan struggled to keep it contained untill after the elections. Yes the Trump tariffs hurt, but they also provide a convenient scapegoat for the wider problem.

tneva82 wrote:
Well US, russia, both bad masters.

Indeed, and brussels sprouts, arsenic, both bad things I don't want to eat.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:


If Turkey collpases, there will be so much gak hitting the fan, we won't even be able to see the fan!

Well with you being closer to Europe you are going to see things differently, but I just follow the US stock market for reaction. And there was none. And I am not talking about the drop in 200 points from skittish traders. You can always tell when something is overblown but how the market reacts over the next couple of days. Take Brexit for example. The day the results of the vote came in, the US stock market dropped 600 points. Def a concern. But the next day it was only 300. That told me things were subsiding and rightly should. The effects of Brexit (at least at the time) were years away. So the next day day traders realized things were oversold and rushed back in the market before things got expensive. Turkey had the same effect. While we can debate the long term, its the short term that really matters and most here at least think this isn't a huge issue for us. As a matter of fact, as usual, peeps are fleeing emerging markets and and rushing the the US market and dollar. But peeps have been fleeing emerging markets for all 2018 really.

And it isn't Turkey that is the problem really, its a chain reaction of defaulting on debt that is the concern in the long term. I have said it before, the next economic bomb with be because of the massive amounts of debt everyone around the world is taking on. Everyone. It isn't sustainable and eventually there will be a reckoning. So save your money. (1) to get you through the rough times and (2) to pick up everything that will be on discount.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
If the western alliance allows Turkey to become a failed state, it will end up in the Russian sphere.

Not unless Erdogan is assassinated.

As long as that idiot is alive, Turkey will try to go alone.

What happens next? Probably Erdogan purging more people he doesn't like and killing some more Kurds.
That seems to be the way Turkey deals with crises.

That's because the Kurds are the escape goat.

...the defense bill that Trump signed yesterday also prevents delivering the F-35 planes to Turkey.

Frankly at this point I hope the US are thinking about bugging out of the Incirlik airbase....

 whembly wrote:
...the defense bill that Trump signed yesterday also prevents delivering the F-35 planes to Turkey.

Frankly at this point I hope the US are thinking about bugging out of the Incirlik airbase....

To be fair what Trump signed was a weakened version of a plan that's been in the making for months by Congress to fully remove Turkey from the programme, not just delay delivery.