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Short story first, been playing miniature games since The mid 80's, worked for GW briefly, helped run several games clubs, and introduced a lot of people into the tabletop gaming hobby. So I have been around a while.

A few decades ago, the choice and variety of games available seemed to explode, players were simply stuck for choice. Variety is a wonderful thing, as not everyone appreciates the same things. However it simply wasn't sustainable, slowly a lot of games and companies went under. GW at this time also contracted to support 3 games systems. WFB, 40K, and LotR.

With the arrival of things like Kickstarter we are seeing another explosion of game systems and companies emerging. With again players lost for choice, even GW is back into catering for a varied taste (WQ, WU, AoS, WC, BB, 40k, Apoc, Necromunda, AT, KT, and LotR).

I'd like to think that this trend is sustainable, however experience tells me otherwise. Is it more a case of when rather than if? Are we going to see another retraction of choice as companies go under as their games and miniatures find that the market is too saturated?

There is also the question of quality control, a lot of manufactures are producing at neck breaking speed, GW for example is every week... which can only be biting into their quality control and play testing. CMON while not as prolific, seem to have gone from a painting website to an up and coming established company with their fingers in a lot of pies.

TL/DR: the hobby seems to be in another 'golden age', however those don't tend to last, how long do you reckon it is before we see the decline?

I reckon we have a few years before we hit critical mass again. The market is far bigger now than it likely ever has been. That of course doesn’t mean it’s limitless though.

GW can at least maintain their neckbreaking release rate because its supported by actual sales, they don't take out big loans/KS.

The problem a lot of KS companies hit is that they can overload their initial market with so many models it kills sales right after; in addition the massive marketing push they go through the KS with many can't repeat when they go commercial so it can seem like it "fizzles out". This is before we even get to issues with KS delivery times or companies that end up slaved to KS and keep having to do more KS to stay afloat.


I do agree it is another golden age and I think KS will keep it going for longer. The main issue is that out of this Golden age I don't think we'll get as many long term companies. Even now we are seeing a former giant of PP dwindle somewhat. Especially as GW firms itself up in the market once more.



I see the main issue is that most of the golden age is leaching off existing gamers. GW has seen this too and part of their approach has been a massive outreach program to get new gamers into the hobby and its great to see them doing it, but also sad that they are the only ones really pushing for that.

We'll have to see what survives and what dies; certainly this golden era will produce a LOT of great sculpts!

KS may see a drop off in time, if we see an uptick in projects not being delivered.

However, GW are, arguably, going to help the market remain diverse.

See, before they basically reduced their range down to 40k and Warhammer. Their Twin Tentpole games.

This meant there was a gap in the market the Biggest Fish wasn't filling, and hence we saw skirmish, naval and epic type stuff tackled by other companies.

GW has in the past few years bucked it's ideas up somewhat. They're going after all the niches once again. From 'we built this with competitive play in mind' Underworlds, to Adeptus Titanicus. Heck, even Apocalypse can be considered a new game, rather than merely a 40k expansion.

Overall, this isn't necessarily bad for the market or GW. With wider offerings, GW are more likely to pick up sales. And being the market leader, get people who otherwise wouldn't have started 40k or AoS into wargaming with miniatures in general. From there, said New Recruits (who GW can reach in a way others simply can't, due to their store network) are more likely to discover other, similar games.

So whilst GW are hogging the pie right now, there's still plenty more to come.

One think we might see is a rise of more big whale companies that suck up sculpts and castings of smaller firms as a result of smaller firms that make it big with a KS but then fail to be able to turn that into a reliable healthy income to support a proper business off.

What would be really exciting is to see larger companies like that moving production out of China or at the very least ensuring higher quality control through overseas factories in general.

Such a thing would be great because one big worry of fast rise and fall companies is the loss of quality models and sculpts.

What would be exciting would be for a game company to emerge that can produce both nice sculpts AND solid rules that focus on gameplay.

Kickstarters for the most part disappoint. They are often cash grabs with little to offer after the initial release and they are then mostly siingle player affairs since few if any locally will play beyond a pick up game or two.

I have wondered a lot lately about how many of these KS board games have a life after the initial fulfilment of backers purchases? I mean Dakka doesn't seem to be creating many new subforums to support the player bases if all these new games. Seems like they are all flash in the pan campaigns just to get some cool minis made.

I don't think there is a huge crash coming for mini gaming (especially now GW has improved it's outlook), but that's not to say that a lot of the small fry are going to survive as businesses,

but then they never did, most start as ambitious projects from passionate gamers (or sculptors) attempt to make enough money to make another few sculpts, or print a rule book, then attempt to start to make regular releases to sell themselves, then the big jump to hit distribution (where you get less money per unit), attempt to grow even larger and allow the owner to go 'full time', and finally to survive an edition change

(and now we can add in KS at pretty much any point too with its own set of problems and opportunities_

although we may see a slow decline as physical games with stuff get less popular?

but I think boardgames are heading for a bubble bursting crunch, even without KS there are so many games coming out, so many people with huge collections of never played (or opened games)….. and an out of control boardgame collection is even bigger than a minis collection unless your making tables too

we're also seeing major mergers & acquisitions happening a lot with companies in boardgaming (funded by debt) which seem to be a risky, risky business

 SickSix wrote:
I have wondered a lot lately about how many of these KS board games have a life after the initial fulfilment of backers purchases? I mean Dakka doesn't seem to be creating many new subforums to support the player bases if all these new games. Seems like they are all flash in the pan campaigns just to get some cool minis made.

That seems to be a basic problem with Kickstarted games - maintaining growth and enthusiasm after a successful release. It's an inherent problem with the system that successful projects can be a victim of their own success. They're got a product that has good initial interest, enough to fund the project, but the bulk of people who would buy into it already did during the KS, and afterwards they aren't able to pull in enough new people to keep things afloat.

 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
but I think boardgames are heading for a bubble bursting crunch, even without KS there are so many games coming out, so many people with huge collections of never played (or opened games)….. and an out of control boardgame collection is even bigger than a minis collection unless your making tables too

Definitely. Boardgame publishers are facing diminishing returns as new product is coming out too quickly. It used to be they could expect that a new release would keep shelf space for a few months, enough for word of mouth to effect sales. Now the glut of games is pushing your release off the shelf in a month's time, so there is a limited window of opportunity.

There was an article on this by the owner of one of the smaller Eurogames companies, but I can't seem to find it. I'm pretty positive it was at Boardgame Geek as that's my go-to for boardgames (which I play more often than mini games).

Plus board games are typically a one buy deal unless you're a big franchise name like Monopoly or Munchkin. Plus I think they suffer in today's market like wargames, in terms of marketing; only for board games I'd say its even harder to market.

This is without considering that clubs/families/gamers might well only buy one board game per "group". A wargame or model game and everyone in the group playing has to buy into the models and most will buy into the books as well. Even a board game like Black Fortress for GW might well get bought several times as people want the models and can expand maps by combining sets.
Meanwhile your typical board game once you've got one set in the group you don't really need another.

95% of all businesses fail in 5 years. That is just a fact.

Game companies are no different.

 Bookwrack wrote:

 SickSix wrote:
I have wondered a lot lately about how many of these KS board games have a life after the initial fulfilment of backers purchases? I mean Dakka doesn't seem to be creating many new subforums to support the player bases if all these new games. Seems like they are all flash in the pan campaigns just to get some cool minis made.

That seems to be a basic problem with Kickstarted games - maintaining growth and enthusiasm after a successful release. It's an inherent problem with the system that successful projects can be a victim of their own success. They're got a product that has good initial interest, enough to fund the project, but the bulk of people who would buy into it already did during the KS, and afterwards they aren't able to pull in enough new people to keep things afloat.

It seems the Kickstarter project that isn’t dead on arrival at retail is the exception these days, rather than the rule. Kickstarter lets stuff get published that might otherwise not be, but it frequently completely fills any demand for said product, too. So you have a big burst of energy, then the game sinks beneath the waves

I don't know how long. But yes, even just GW seems to be releasing too much stuff too quickly and have too many game systems. I'm sure there are many people that are interested in something, for example Warcry, but still haven't finished their last Age of Sigmar army or Underworlds warband, and feel like they don't get enough chance to play those games as it is without adding a new one into the rotation. So they are competing with themselves. They are trying to combat this by making the games somewhat more disposeable or expandable. So even if someone only plays Underworlds, they can continue to sell them new stuff every few months to have the latest cards and rules changes, like new expansions of a collectible card game.

 stonehorse wrote:
Short story first, been playing miniature games since The mid 80's, worked for GW briefly, helped run several games clubs, and introduced a lot of people into the tabletop gaming hobby. So I have been around a while.

A few decades ago, the choice and variety of games available seemed to explode, players were simply stuck for choice. Variety is a wonderful thing, as not everyone appreciates the same things. However it simply wasn't sustainable, slowly a lot of games and companies went under. GW at this time also contracted to support 3 games systems. WFB, 40K, and LotR.

With the arrival of things like Kickstarter we are seeing another explosion of game systems and companies emerging. With again players lost for choice, even GW is back into catering for a varied taste (WQ, WU, AoS, WC, BB, 40k, Apoc, Necromunda, AT, KT, and LotR).

I'd like to think that this trend is sustainable, however experience tells me otherwise. Is it more a case of when rather than if? Are we going to see another retraction of choice as companies go under as their games and miniatures find that the market is too saturated?

There is also the question of quality control, a lot of manufactures are producing at neck breaking speed, GW for example is every week... which can only be biting into their quality control and play testing. CMON while not as prolific, seem to have gone from a painting website to an up and coming established company with their fingers in a lot of pies.

TL/DR: the hobby seems to be in another 'golden age', however those don't tend to last, how long do you reckon it is before we see the decline?

TBH I've finally hit my end. I haven't touched my models in over a month, have barely kept up with any of the news, and I don't see that changing in August.

There's something to be said for bubbles bursting, and perhaps a consolidation of markets. There's also a lot of, for lack of a better term, 'shovel-ware' out there in board games and games in general.

It’s gotten to the point where being a good game is not a guarantee of success and attention in 2019 when piles of stuff come out every week. Sooner or later the conveyor belt of releases will have to have a breakdown, or at least hiccup, as gamers already can’t really keep up. How many people have piles of unplaced, or even unopened games these days? There isn’t time to even enjoy a game before 80000000000 more are clamoring for your attention. Many will disappear without getting it; just not enough time and money even for good games in 2019, let alone the mountains of cash in shovel-ware.

To my mind the good games are the ones that people play, and then want to play again, and introduce to their friends to play with them.

As long as most companies don't think they're going to become the next GW or FFG they should be fine. It's the "successful Kickstarter means we've made it!" mentality that catches out so many small companies. Seen so many companies fail to deliver or collapse shortly thereafter.

I think people need to make sure they're not quitting their day jobs to pursue a successful Kickstarted game, etc.

I think we feel like there's a huge gaming boom right now, but a lot of it is pretty smartly handled. I think technology has made producing games much easier, and on occasion, less risky. So we're flooded with options.

Plus everyone can not buy everything.. Back in the day I collected Games Workshop, Magic Cards, D&D and Comics. Now No comics, no magic..some D&D and only Kill team stuff from GW.
A lot of people are the same... They realize they are over extending themselves to much and cut back...

I have always thought that Funkco Pops are the new version of Beany Babies.. but they keep chugging along.. but I don't know for how long before they drop off.

As for Kick-starters I am very selective now.. A Project in the past I might give it a try, I really scrutinize now after getting burned by Palladium game's Robotech Tactics..
Always thought Ninja Division was running the show and having very little to deal with Kevin Siembieda the gaming world's version of OJ.

 stonehorse wrote:

I'd like to think that this trend is sustainable, however experience tells me otherwise. Is it more a case of when rather than if? Are we going to see another retraction of choice as companies go under as their games and miniatures find that the market is too saturated?

I don't think the market is at all too saturated - what it is, is too myopic. That is, we've got a lot of choices for games, but it is a choice between a lot of the same types of game. The miniature field should be as broad as it is deep, but somehow, we're stuck with competitive matched play games almost exclusively. That field is completely saturated and can not support a huge number of players.

I think what we're looking at is a CCG or MMORPG situation where the current industry can only really support one, sometimes two core products and everything else dies. With CCGs, it is Magic the Gathering and Pokemon. Period. In MMOs, it is World of Warcraft. Both of these genres (CCGs and MMOs) require a sort of subscription service to keep players engaged over time, and players can not afford to subscribe to many of these services simultaneously. If you are chasing Magic the Gathering, you aren't going to be able to afford to do anything else because Magic is basically a full time job, requiring a full time salary.

However, the blind pack purchase CCG has died out, but "living card game" format of non-random buys is flourishing. It is still basically a subscription service, but it is much, much cheaper, allowing people to engage in multiple ones at the same time. FFG's LCG, Doomtown Reloaded, and even Warhammer Underworlds. Similarly, CCGs sort of had the deck building aspect codified into a different game genre, exemplified by games like Dominion or Thunderstone - but then extended beyond cards to even dice building, like Quarriors or Dice Masters. The collectible part of CCGs is no longer profitable for card games (and miniature games, like Mage Knight or Monsterpocalypse), but has come back in dice collecting games.

Basically, one thing was really popular, a bunch of people competed to be the best at that one thing, and one won out. No longer being able to compete with that one market leader, designers took the parts they liked the most and went in separate directions with it, ultimately diversifying the field. In the 90s, all CCGs looked the same. These days, that DNA is found in multiple genres filled with a wide variety of games. The industry consolidates, then diversifies.

There is also the question of quality control, a lot of manufactures are producing at neck breaking speed, GW for example is every week... which can only be biting into their quality control and play testing. CMON while not as prolific, seem to have gone from a painting website to an up and coming established company with their fingers in a lot of pies.

I think CMON will be one of the first casualties of the consolidation. They are completely dependent on one basic type of game sold through Kickstarters. Their last few kickstarters were Arcadia Quest IN SPACE! and Zombicide IN SPACE! They are running out of ideas and the games are becoming less and less appealing. The only reason they haven't crashed and burned so far is that the kickstarters take so long to actually fulfill that people can buy into three of them before the first flood of boxes they'll never open starts clogging their house's arteries. But a year from now, while people are standing on three roomfuls of boxes to games they never play, are they really going to buy into the hype for another kickstarter?

FFG has another problem. As much as I hate it, they know when to cut a product line and when to reboot a dead one. They have a very diverse portfolio of games, from board games, card games, dice game, and miniature games. The only problem is the Star Wars license has warped that sense, killing profitable series in favor of Star Wars games which are more profitable - as long as Star Wars is profitable. And with Disney basically killing the Star Wars IP more and more with every decision, I think FFG is going to be caught unawares when the either lose the SW license, or people suddenly get sick of it and stop buying it, making 80% of their current line up basically worthless - and FFG two years into design the next 5 Star Wars games and nothing else. FFG loses the Star Wars license and they are dead, overnight.

GW will slow down eventually - they can't just do a new edition every other year and spend 12 months releasing codices/battletomes for it. Diversifying with stuff like Warcry, Necromunda, Kill Team, Middle Earth, Adeptus Titanicus gives them places to go when 40k and AoS get close to buckling under their own weight. The only real problem is that GW is damn close to pricing itself out of the market. I feel like they are just pushing up against that upper limit for how much they can charge for things and get away with it (and occasionally crossing that line, like with Adeptus Titanicus).

TL/DR: the hobby seems to be in another 'golden age', however those don't tend to last, how long do you reckon it is before we see the decline?

I think the bubble is going to burst within the next few years - particularly for kickstarters and board games. It'll ultimately be a good thing that will make a more diverse and interesting industry, but the short term losses will be substantial.

I’m not sure if we’ll lose many Big Names.

GW for certain look to be in rude health for now. Very little debt, fat to trim as and when.

But, I think it’s Wargames Foundry are just setting out on the ‘our own stores path’. That could be a danger if they’re borrowing to fund that expansion. If sales slump, and debt can’t be serviced? That’s what kills your company.

PP? Honestly not idea about their overall state. Again, if they’re not carrying debt? Probably survive.

Mantic etc? Those still (in my opinion, which is quite possibly wrong) up-and-coming? They may not be able to survive a drop off, depending on how it hits.

I really hope PP gets on an upward swing soon - they've been hit hard by some of hteir own odd choices but also failings in plastic material choices which has cost them. Right now I think they are coasting on loyal fans, but they need to push forward and get tehir recruitment system going again - get more gamers in and get their name out there once more.

 Elbows wrote:
As long as most companies don't think they're going to become the next GW or FFG they should be fine. It's the "successful Kickstarter means we've made it!" mentality that catches out so many small companies. Seen so many companies fail to deliver or collapse shortly thereafter.

I think people need to make sure they're not quitting their day jobs to pursue a successful Kickstarted game, etc.

I think we feel like there's a huge gaming boom right now, but a lot of it is pretty smartly handled. I think technology has made producing games much easier, and on occasion, less risky. So we're flooded with options.

It's worth noting that not even GW was GW back when they started. I think part of what's going on these days is that consumers don't differentiate between publishers and expect the same level of quality and price across the board. It's not unreasonable, but trying to produce a AAA game on a A budget isn't a good idea.

 Overread wrote:
I really hope PP gets on an upward swing soon - they've been hit hard by some of hteir own odd choices but also failings in plastic material choices which has cost them. Right now I think they are coasting on loyal fans, but they need to push forward and get tehir recruitment system going again - get more gamers in and get their name out there once more.

I think PP will survive, but only if they are smart - they put all their eggs in the WMH basket, which wasn't. However, last I heard, Monsterpocalypse was doing pretty well (certainly better than any of PP's other attempts to move away from WMH), and they've got Riot Quest coming (I doubt that will be very successful, but it may make a profit from smaller expectations and a smaller audience). Their new Warcasters game is intriguing, if it can avoid the tournament attitude pitfalls that Mk2 fell to (and make a game that actually looks good on the table). I'm giving them 70/30 to survive, based mostly on the fact that Monsterpocalypse is a brilliant game.

 Overread wrote:
I really hope PP gets on an upward swing soon - they've been hit hard by some of hteir own odd choices but also failings in plastic material choices which has cost them. Right now I think they are coasting on loyal fans, but they need to push forward and get tehir recruitment system going again - get more gamers in and get their name out there once more.

I feel bad for the players, but I don't like the games.

From what I've seen it's just two people positioning their pieces and then racing to push the "I win" button first.

The models also are varying levels of cool, some look nice and look like they'd be fun to paint, others look terrible and have awful proportions. And unfortunately, all of them are in metal and that is a big turn off for me.

 Togusa wrote:

 Overread wrote:
I really hope PP gets on an upward swing soon - they've been hit hard by some of hteir own odd choices but also failings in plastic material choices which has cost them. Right now I think they are coasting on loyal fans, but they need to push forward and get tehir recruitment system going again - get more gamers in and get their name out there once more.

I feel bad for the players, but I don't like the games.

From what I've seen it's just two people positioning their pieces and then racing to push the "I win" button first.

The models also are varying levels of cool, some look nice and look like they'd be fun to paint, others look terrible and have awful proportions. And unfortunately, all of them are in metal and that is a big turn off for me.

As a self confessed WM/H fanboy I actually get where you coming from. And that is the fault of a section of our community that only play with a small selection of 2D Terrain. The game is more…. “technical” than anything GW produces. 1mm of placing matters, degrees of model facing matter its detailed at both the macro and micro level. It’s a fantastic game, great for casual and competitive play. But its not as much of a beer and pretzels as AOS or 40K. WM/H is designed to have a winner in each game. But Wm/H and Malifaux are the games for me and in my mind, far superior to GW games. IMO of course!

However we cannot deny that MK3 was a HUGE misstep for PP. I think they felt pressured by the new releases by GW and rushed out their product. In reality I think they should of just been honest with their player base and just said “look, a new version of the game is coming, hang in for 6 months and we will be with you”. Instead they rushed out a product that was not tested of balanced which, for a game that is about being technical and balanced, was a disaster. A year of so later after fixing they are about to release the Oblivion campaign/remix, which everyone is calling Mk3.5. Because, well, it is….. And its fantastic.

As for the models being all metal, you’re quite a bit behind the times with that. Pretty much all of PPs releases over the last few years have been plastic/resin which is nice. There are still metal models being produced but that’s more for solos etc which I don’t personally have a problem with. What I do have an issue with is the cost of some of the new kits.

Im still enjoying the game which is recovering quite well. But PP as a company has burned a lot of trust which it will have to rebuild. Im not that interested in Riotquest apart from a few models I will use in WM/H. Monstapoc is doing well im told. Im waiting politely to see what their new game is going to be like. I hope it is good. But I don’t understand how people thing that PP is on the brink of failing as a company.

Honestly I think PP's issue was that they played into the whole "living rules set" too much for a physical game. They got to where they were by being simple - cards are in the box; model comes out of the box with the card and you play with the card.

Right now there's theme lists that lock you into certain builds with some armies being very restricted and others very free; meanwhile you've got regular updates for balance, but which invalidates the whole card based game of play unless you print them off yourself regularly.


Thing is whilst gamers cry out for faster updates the continual cycling of rules and the way PP presented it I think gave the impression they were trying to patch it like a PC game and I think that turned people away; they added hassle to the element of getting the core rules of the game.


Even though GW has loads of support material; getting the core of the game is simple. Rulebook + Battletome/Codex and you're good to go.



I do agree PP burned trust; they burned their own forums; burned their PG system and didn't try and replace it; they burned customers with poor plastic attempts early on. They can recover.


I think the failing issue is the worry that PP won't die, but it will move into that subset of games whereby you can't guarantee a game in "most local clubs". Ergo it joins the rest like Dropfleet/zone etc....And then loses its hold as games like Infinity etc.... overtake it.

Wondering if FFG's licenses might prove an issue?

Of course, none of us have any idea on what the agreement actually is, or how it's paid for (initial dollop of cash, then X%, who knows!), or how long it runs for (is it a fixed term deal, is it a rolling contract?).

But one thing I think we can say with reasonable confidence is that Licenses can be revoked or otherwise taken away.

If FFG lose Star Wars (no suggestion that's in the offing of course), that's a decent slice of their offerings, and their more popular ones at that, going bye-byes, as they simply won't be able to produce them.

All it takes is Disney thinking 'we can get a bit more for this', and that's X-Wing done for. Could even be it comes up for renegotiation during a nominal slump, and FFG not having the readies there and then to fund it.

All sorts of dangers when dealing with licensed products. After all, Kenner had a ridiculously supersweet, license to print money for very little cost license for the original Star Wars toys. All they had to do was produce a cheque (I think it was $50k?) each year, and the deal continued, with nothing more payable to Lucasfilm. One year, the cheque was late, and suddenly the whole deal could be renegotiated.

Sunno wrote:It’s a fantastic game, great for casual and competitive play.

I don't think there is a less casual play-friendly game than WMH. Maybe Russian Roulette...

However we cannot deny that MK3 was a HUGE misstep for PP.

MK2 was a HUGE misstep for PP. Everything that killed WMH started in MK2. MK3 just forced those issues sooner than later. But that's a different discussion for a different time.

Overread wrote:Right now there's theme lists that lock you into certain builds with some armies being very restricted and others very free; meanwhile you've got regular updates for balance, but which invalidates the whole card based game of play unless you print them off yourself regularly.

Every WMH player I know uses War Room for digital cards - especially since it is as important to know what your opponent's models' stats are as your own.

Thing is whilst gamers cry out for faster updates the continual cycling of rules and the way PP presented it I think gave the impression they were trying to patch it like a PC game and I think that turned people away; they added hassle to the element of getting the core rules of the game.

Well, it got to the point where at any one point, it was impossible for a person to know the state of the game. Minmaxing becomes impossible when the things you are minmaxing are constantly in flux. Something like CID would work wonderfully for a non-competitive game, which is ironic because a non-competitive game wouldn't need to constantly update the game.

I do agree PP burned trust; they burned their own forums; burned their PG system and didn't try and replace it; they burned customers with poor plastic attempts early on. They can recover.

Maybe, but the people they burned the hardest were new players. PP may be able to convince old players to come back and try the game, but it's going to take more than Oblivion to make a player who was curbstomped his first few games ever give the game a second look.

I think the failing issue is the worry that PP won't die, but it will move into that subset of games whereby you can't guarantee a game in "most local clubs". Ergo it joins the rest like Dropfleet/zone etc....And then loses its hold as games like Infinity etc.... overtake it.

I think that is already starting to happen, but I think WMH was so big that it will always have some sort of name recognition in the industry as one of the big boys. Less people will play it, but everybody will still recognize it. That gives it an opportunity to make a 40k 8th edition like reboot where they can maybe bring the game back from the brink - but they'll need to do something extra to get burned new players to play the game.