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I almost never order from GW directly, nor pay much attention to their release dates etc. However, the new Primaris Psycher from the Blackstone Fortress (Ariadne something or other) does interest me. What's the typical timeframe for that mini to be released on it's own or show up on ebay?

Individual characters from the set are already on e-bay. Or do you mean how long after the set is actually released could you still.get them?

Ebay individual kits will appear whenever the stores stocking ebay can get a hold of the prices to buy them in. Once they've got that the "store" ones will already be putting up pre-order pages for the broken down models on their own. Meanwhile less formal stores will likely start on the day or soon after launch and keep going until the supply from GW runs out (provided that hte stock sells of course).

So broken up kits are likely already going to be appearing on pre-orders.

As for if/when GW puts htem on sale it varies a lot. Also note that some sets, like Blackstone, might never go on sale on their own

The explorer models will never be available separately from GW - they’re all on a single sprue. The cultist firebrand might be because he comes on a sprue by himself.

Never say never.

Kill Team Cassius was considered the same thing, it's available solo.

I'd say they're more the exception than the rule.

Kill Team Cassius works in the context of 40k; it’s an actual squad that regularly fights together. The explorers from Blackstone Fortress are a bunch of ransoms thrown together by circumstance who wouldn’t have anything to do with each other away from the Fortress.