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How do?

Browsing on YouTube, because I should be working. And I came across the following video which I thought might be of interest. Essentially, Midwinter Minis came across a 1997 Citadel Price guide, and using an inflation calculator, worked out equivalent prices.

Now, I am not drawing conclusions here, just starting off the topic. And I think that what could be fun would be to use his spreadsheet to work out what your current army might’ve cost in 1997. No, scratch that. Spreadsheet isn’t comprehensive. Nads.




And the spreadsheet

Please note I’m taking it on faith the spreadsheet and formulas therein are accurate. I’m hopeless with Excel, so don’t have much choice!

Also, I’m aware that non-GBP prices are likely to be very different. Especially for the Aussies!

It is pretty much for anyone not in the UK wrong.

Heck the aussie from the outer circle (atleast i assume it's one, due to dialect) made a more indepth one.

Do you have a link to that?

That was a pretty interesting deep dive.

Fasinating stuff in that some stuff has leap up stupidly, but other stuff has... Dropped?

Clearly the change from metal to plastic is in there. I can't believe guardsmen have dropped - I wonder if he was taking into account the old box was 20 and the new box is ten?

Interesting the Codex's are all net cheaper, but of course now we have to pay for suppliments, and they've outsourced their printing overseas, which used to be in the UK.

... I guess... GW... Isn't... As bad... As I... Thought?

Ugh, that sentence was hard to say.

The Catachan thing isn’t a direct match.

Yes, the plastic squad is cheaper than the original metal squad - but the plastic lacks a Heavy Weapon team. It does however include the Vox Caster, which was a separate model during 2nd Ed.

If anyone has a 1997 price guide, I’d be interested in completing the spreadsheet (crap as I am with a Excel, I can still enter values!) for sake of an in depth reference.

Hmm, haven't watched the video yet, but do they take into account that several newer equivalent models are significantly more expensive than older equivalents? Take the Dunerider and Impulsor, which seem to be the new price point for more basic transports. Both kits are $75 USD compared to say $45 for a rhino/razorback or $58 for a wave serpent.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Do you have a link to that?

Sure allbeit i can't judge the mold price since it isn't in my metier:

It’s a comparison of 1997 to 2020 equivalents, so there’s no allowance for New Stuff being factored in.

AdmiralHalsey wrote:
That was a pretty interesting deep dive.

Fasinating stuff in that some stuff has leap up stupidly, but other stuff has... Dropped?

Clearly the change from metal to plastic is in there. I can't believe guardsmen have dropped - I wonder if he was taking into account the old box was 20 and the new box is ten?

Interesting the Codex's are all net cheaper, but of course now we have to pay for suppliments, and they've outsourced their printing overseas, which used to be in the UK.

... I guess... GW... Isn't... As bad... As I... Thought?

Ugh, that sentence was hard to say.

As i said, it's only true if you are in the UK.
For everyone outside, there are fantasy conversions, diffrent inflation and therefore purchase power issues.
F.e. GW hiked prices constantly over here, whilest inflation has been at an all time low comparatively and PP has lowered.

I think the main point that many things have only risen with inflation isn't totally unreasonable although there will always be a bit of cherrypicking.

I think though if you did the history, you'd find GW applied very little if any inflation to their range from say 1998->2010. So in real terms it became cheaper. Partly this seemed reasonable - because models were redone in plastic. So you stopped buying 3 metal guys for £5-6, and could now buy 10 plastic guys for £15 or so.

But from about 2010/2012 I feel above inflation increases became the norm. This was especially true for characters - as noted in the video. Almost every year we saw clam pack characters go up by about £1 or more - which is why they are now over £20, perhaps even £25 today.

Really though the feeling of GW costs more is because they replace the old to the new. So for example you have say the current Ork Boyz kit - released I want to say around 2008 or so, for £20 maybe, now £22.50.

If they did a new kit we all know it would be £35-40 today. And the models might be a bit bigger and Orkier (even if people love the current Boyz) - but for an aspiring Ork player who needed to grab 30-90 of them, that's going to hurt. Compare with getting 60~ GSC Acolytes.

I saw this video the other day. It's heavily skewed by starting the comparison in 1997, rather than 2000 or so, because all the troops comparisons are done against metal blister packs.

40K actually was hideously expensive in the late 90s, and that's a huge part of why Warzone got traction as a 40K competitor. The release of plastic kits was a huge relief for 40K, and in some cases (eg Tacticals), the price per-model dropped by half in the switch.

Take Cadians as an example. In 1997, ten pewter Cadians cost £17, which after accounting for inflation to 2020 means the prices have dropped. However, in 2003, the plastic Cadian set released at a price of £18 for twenty models. Accounting for inflation puts the current price of the same exact sculpt at 57% higher today than it was on release.

The elephant in the room is that while inflation has driven prices upwards, wages have largely stayed static both in the US and UK, reducing the average purchasing power of a typical consumer. Not GW's fault there, but when discussing the affordability of the hobby as a whole it's relevant.

And lastly, while not strictly related to the per-model price, the number of models required to play the game has steadily crept upwards as well. Comparing the size of armies between 2nd, 5th, and 8th there's a noticeable upward trend. I was actually really surprised at the points increases in the transition to 9th, but my 2000pt army from 3rd is still only ~1500pts now. That, too, increases the perceived price of the hobby, even if the models were to stay at the same price.

The switch from white metal to plastic throws the numbers off, wasn't the drive to plastic because tin prices got somewhat volatile late 90s / early 00s which made medium / longterm planning tricky

Still have the but feeling that 30 speesh marines for a tenner doesn't line up with the 75 squids or so they'd cost today, not Landraiders for 7ish (was 15ish for two if my aging grey matter recalls properly)

 catbarf wrote:
I saw this video the other day. It's heavily skewed by starting the comparison in 1997, rather than 2000 or so, because all the troops comparisons are done against metal blister packs.

40K actually was hideously expensive in the late 90s, and that's a huge part of why Warzone got traction as a 40K competitor. The release of plastic kits was a huge relief for 40K, and in some cases (eg Tacticals), the price per-model dropped by half in the switch.

Take Cadians as an example. In 1997, ten pewter Cadians cost £17, which after accounting for inflation to 2020 means the prices have dropped. However, in 2003, the plastic Cadian set released at a price of £18 for twenty models. Accounting for inflation puts the current price of the same exact sculpt at 57% higher today than it was on release.

The elephant in the room is that while inflation has driven prices upwards, wages have largely stayed static both in the US and UK, reducing the average purchasing power of a typical consumer. Not GW's fault there, but when discussing the affordability of the hobby as a whole it's relevant.

And lastly, while not strictly related to the per-model price, the number of models required to play the game has steadily crept upwards as well. Comparing the size of armies between 2nd, 5th, and 8th there's a noticeable upward trend. I was actually really surprised at the points increases in the transition to 9th, but my 2000pt army from 3rd is still only ~1500pts now. That, too, increases the perceived price of the hobby, even if the models were to stay at the same price.

UK Minimum Wage will play a part in the overheads, as this graph shows.

Its a regular claim that wages have been static in the UK and US - but while I can't speak for the US, this doesn't really make sense based on consumer behaviour.

You'd expect consumption of all sorts of hobbies, entertainments, holidays etc to be static - or even declining, and at least prior to this year, it clear wasn't. This isn't meant to lead to some "haha, millennials eating that avocado toast again" takes - but this idea we are all penniless and hard up is hard to square with that reality. Especially since I'm pretty sure housing costs have gone up above inflation, as have probably other base essentials like energy. Food has gone down, but I'm not sure that would make enough of a difference.

Tyel wrote:
Its a regular claim that wages have been static in the UK and US - but while I can't speak for the US, this doesn't really make sense based on consumer behaviour.

You'd expect consumption of all sorts of hobbies, entertainments, holidays etc to be static - or even declining, and at least prior to this year, it clear wasn't. This isn't meant to lead to some "haha, millennials eating that avocado toast again" takes - but this idea we are all penniless and hard up is hard to square with that reality. Especially since I'm pretty sure housing costs have gone up above inflation, as have probably other base essentials like energy. Food has gone down, but I'm not sure that would make enough of a difference.

there's a difference between average consumer behaviour, which includes the statistical extremepoints, torwards a comparison that is closer to the median level.
Especially in regards to "average Purchasing power".

 catbarf wrote:

However, in 2003, the plastic Cadian set released at a price of £18 for twenty models. Accounting for inflation puts the current price of the same exact sculpt at 57% higher today than it was on release.

Worse, they were £15.

What might also be interesting is if someone good with numbers could reverse engineer the price of Big Ticket items, such as Imperial Knights using the same inflation numbers?

Yes, GW's older sculpts have largely kept up with inflation.

however, their newer sculpts have been mostly more expensive than the models they've replaced, with inflation.

 catbarf wrote:
I saw this video the other day. It's heavily skewed by starting the comparison in 1997, rather than 2000 or so, because all the troops comparisons are done against metal blister packs.

Agreed. Though plastic availability was somewhat skewed.

Looking at prices from 1995 a box of metal termagants cost twice what a box of plastic gaunts did (£9 for 10 plastic gaunts) and special/heavy weapons could often cost twice as much again.

UK Wraithguard - £32.50
UK Howling Banshees - £32.50

OZ Wraithguard - AUD$55
OZ Howling Banshees - AUD$90

I'm sure it's just inflation...

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
What might also be interesting is if someone good with numbers could reverse engineer the price of Big Ticket items, such as Imperial Knights using the same inflation numbers?

Biggest items I can think of that are pretty much unchanged from their old counterparts are the various Land Raider variants. Maybe a Baneblade/Shadowstorm, depending on when they switched over from being a Forgeworld-only thing...?

Its a regular claim that wages have been static in the UK and US - but while I can't speak for the US, this doesn't really make sense based on consumer behaviour.

You'd expect consumption of all sorts of hobbies, entertainments, holidays etc to be static - or even declining, and at least prior to this year, it clear wasn't. This isn't meant to lead to some "haha, millennials eating that avocado toast again" takes - but this idea we are all penniless and hard up is hard to square with that reality. Especially since I'm pretty sure housing costs have gone up above inflation, as have probably other base essentials like energy. Food has gone down, but I'm not sure that would make enough of a difference.

Entertainment is typically the last thing to be cut. Even in times of serious economic stress, people still spend on "fun". I worked in film and tv during and immediately after 9/11 (in the U.S.). When my FX company did not have a tv or film contract, we did work for theme and amusement parks. Even with travel shut down and the economy in the toilet, theme parks were still contracting us left and right. Ditto the major recession later in the decade when housing crashed. People want their escape whether they can really afford it or not.

 H.B.M.C. wrote:
UK Wraithguard - £32.50
UK Howling Banshees - £32.50

OZ Wraithguard - AUD$55
OZ Howling Banshees - AUD$90

I'm sure it's just inflation...

Nah, it’s BS what it is (the prices, not your post.)

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:

 H.B.M.C. wrote:
UK Wraithguard - £32.50
UK Howling Banshees - £32.50

OZ Wraithguard - AUD$55
OZ Howling Banshees - AUD$90

I'm sure it's just inflation...

Nah, it’s BS what it is (the prices, not your post.)

Problem is Aussies keep paying it. The Outer Circle is a great example of this; it's no secret how critical he is of GW's pricing, especially with regards to AUS, and then he whips out his brand new, 2000pt Nighthaunt army and acts surprised when GW keep cranking it up.

How does it account for things like Dire Avengers- the box got cut in half model-wise and was subsequently hit with price raises?

Voss wrote:
How does it account for things like Dire Avengers- the box got cut in half model-wise and was subsequently hit with price raises?

Well, if memory serves Dire Avengers came in blister packs of three, with the Exarch being a separate blister?

The comparisons in the vid are straight “what was it then, and what is it now”.

AdmiralHalsey wrote:

... I guess... GW... Isn't... As bad... As I... Thought?

Ugh, that sentence was hard to say.

I think a lot of people experience stagnating wages, which drives some of the perception.

Tyel wrote:
Its a regular claim that wages have been static in the UK and US - but while I can't speak for the US, this doesn't really make sense based on consumer behaviour.

You'd expect consumption of all sorts of hobbies, entertainments, holidays etc to be static - or even declining, and at least prior to this year, it clear wasn't. This isn't meant to lead to some "haha, millennials eating that avocado toast again" takes - but this idea we are all penniless and hard up is hard to square with that reality. Especially since I'm pretty sure housing costs have gone up above inflation, as have probably other base essentials like energy. Food has gone down, but I'm not sure that would make enough of a difference.

it's difficult to find a lot of numbers, but looking at america and adjusting for inflation, since 2010 at least spending on entertainment as a percentage of income for the average american has gone down 15%.

 Super Ready wrote:

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
What might also be interesting is if someone good with numbers could reverse engineer the price of Big Ticket items, such as Imperial Knights using the same inflation numbers?

Biggest items I can think of that are pretty much unchanged from their old counterparts are the various Land Raider variants. Maybe a Baneblade/Shadowstorm, depending on when they switched over from being a Forgeworld-only thing...?

I was thinking the same - Baneblade/Shadowstorm would be good comparison old & new (and perhaps vs. old Armorcast versions and what they'd cost at current inflation). Perhaps also a Warhound/Reaver titan?

Overall, I've always use the cost of a Land Raider to gauge GW's (over)pricing, especially vs. a normal tank model kit (say, by Revell). I do remember when the LR kit went up to $50, I quit buying GW models for a good bit - same thing when it went to $75.

 Daedalus81 wrote:

AdmiralHalsey wrote:

... I guess... GW... Isn't... As bad... As I... Thought?

Ugh, that sentence was hard to say.

I think a lot of people experience stagnating wages, which drives some of the perception.

The flip side to that of course is those like me that got lucky, and have been able to find higher wages. Compared to 8 years ago, I’m earning 2 and a half times as much (ish. Think I’m closer to triple). So I’ve been more insulated to GW’s prices and rises than others.]

Not intended as a humble brag.